Trading in Running Strategy

One popular system is backing the draw first in football matches that you expect to be rather dull and lifeless, particularly in the first half. The average draw price of a relatively even English Premiership match is 3.4. If the game is still scoreless at half-time, that price will drop to 2.6-2.7. But beware the late goal, stats show that the last 15 minutes of each half are the highest scoring segments of the match, even after you allow for the addition of injury-time.

Scratch it out first on a piece of paper:

•Back the draw at 3.4, for £50
◦Team A = -£50
◦Draw = +£120
◦Team B = -£50


•After 35 minutes, lay the draw at 2.80 for £30
◦Team A = -£20
◦Draw = +£66
◦Team B = -£20

(note - effective position is now £20 on the Draw at 4.3)


•At half-time, if the score is still 0-0, lay the draw again, 2.66 for £30
◦Team A = +£10
◦Draw = +£16.2
◦Team B = +£10


•Team A scores after 60 mins, prices now Team A 1.50, Draw 3.6, Team B 17.0. Lay Team A for £20
◦Team A = £0
◦Draw = +£36.2
◦Team B = +£30
In this position, you don't mind if the home team hangs on, but you'd prefer an equaliser from the visitors. Team A continue to shorten as the clock ticks, but Team B are pushing everyone forward...

75mins – Team A 1.28, Draw 5.0, Team B 30.0

Do you ride this out or lay the favourite again?

80mins, the visitors get desperate and bring on fresh legs. Team A1.20, Draw 6.0, Team B 50.0

Risk a tenner by laying the leading team for a backers stake of £50.

•Team A = -£10
•Draw = +£86.2
•Team B = +£80
85mins, the visitors equalise! Team A 11.0, Draw 1.20, Team B 11.0. Lay the draw for £100.

•Team A = +£90
•Draw = +£66.2
•Team B = +£180
90 minutes - somebody scores, but do you really care with a book like that???

Alternatively, you might wish to lay the odds-on favourite if you don't think they will score in the first half-hour. There are many different strategies, many different variables, the only way to work out what's best for you is test them out.

Important tips for live trading
1.Go into the game with a strategy.
2.Keep thinking a few minutes ahead - what will happen if ....? With live trading, you are focusing on what happens next, not necessarily the end result.
3.Always be prepared to risk a short-priced favourite for the sake of a couple of beers.
4.Practice on paper or for small stakes first.