Tuesday, March 30, 2010

On Saizen's income (in Saizen REIT's quarterly report, 11 Feb 10):

"Operationally, Saizen REIT is not losing money. I think this is what you are concerned about. In fact, it made more money than the same period last year. This is remarkable if you realise that it has done this after selling away five properties.

"Look at net income from operations. It is up 5.3%. What makes it looks bad is this: Net fair value loss on financial derivatives. This has a loss of JPY401.7m for the period reported.

"....... their explanation that this is for "mainly fair value losses on warrants of JPY 389.0 million, which arose due to the increase in market-traded price of the warrants."

"This really has no material impact on Saizen REIT real profitability. If you take the sum of JPY 389.0 million out, what you get is actually a profit....."

On estimating Saizen REIT's dpu (in Saizen REIT: March 2010 Presentation, 14 March 10):

"To estimate the distributable income, I look at the Income Statement. Nett income from operations in 2QFY2010 was JPY364m for the group. There was a reduction in nett income from operations in 2QFY2010 compared to 1QFY2010 due to the divestment of 5 properties by the manager.

"As Saizen REIT has defaulted on YK Shintoku's CMBS loan, I doubt it would be divesting anymore properties while seeking refinancing options. So, if you multiply 2QFY2010 nett income from operations by 4, we could estimate the full year total to be JPY 1,456m. Assuming Saizen REIT pays out 90% of its income, we arrive at JPY 1,310.4m. Please bear in mind that this is an estimate.

"At the end of February 2010, Saizen REIT had 952,799,055 units and 493,558,362 warrants in issue. Many are actually buying the warrants for capital appreciation with no intention of converting them into regular units in the meantime. So, if we do a simple division of the distributable income by the number of units in issue, we get JPY 1.38 per unit. Based on the prevailing exchange rate, we get Singapore 2c per unit. 1 JPY = 0.01516 SGD (provided by UOB). This translates into a yield of 12% based on the last done price of 16.5c.

"Of course, I expect the warrants to be fully exercised by 2012 which, incidentally, would provide Saizen REIT with more funds to bring down its gearing level or to fund yield accretive purchases then.

"Assuming that all warrants are fully exercised and nett operation income stays the same, estimated distributable income would reduce proportionally to 1.4c per unit. This translates into a yield of 8.5% on the last done price of 16.5c."

On refinancing for Saizen REIT (in Saizen REIT: March 2010 Presentation, 14 March 10):

"If I had the money, I would consider taking over Saizen REIT. It would be a steal compared to buying the underlying assets one by one as that would cost more. Buying the REIT would give me ownership of 161 apartment buildings in Japan at almost 60% discount to their current market values! Unfortunately, I don't have that kind of money.

"YK Shintoku's CMBS totals JPY 7,253.2m. That portfolio of properties is worth JPY 9,078.7m. That's a 20% difference. 7% interest is JPY 507.72m annually. YK Shintoku, with the divestment of 5 properties, would still generate a gross rental revenue of JPY 920.5m annually. Even after taking away 15% for expenses and fees, it would still have JPY 782.38m left. After deducting JPY 507.72m in interest expense (at the current 7%), YK Shintoku would still generate a nett income of JPY 274.66m! Very healthy. Personally, I do not see any reason why the CMBS loan could not be re-financed from this standpoint."

Sunday, March 28, 2010

张卫健

张卫健,香港著名歌手和演员,籍贯上海,出生于香港。2009年1月12日,张卫健和张茜结束10年爱情长跑,在菲律宾圣奥古斯汀教堂举行婚礼。

家乡: 上海
血型: O
出生年月: 1965年2月8日
星座: 水瓶座

毕业院校: St. Francais Xavias College
身高: 170厘米

1984年参加新秀歌唱大赛得到金奖,也同时获得最突出台风奖,而开始他的演艺生涯。但他并没因此走红,为了生活,只好再度回歌厅驻唱,和交往5年的女友江欣燕因性格不合而分手。后凭首次担纲演出的港剧《老友鬼鬼》一炮而红。华纳唱片还推出张卫健首张个人粤语专辑《真真假假》也大卖登上排行榜冠军。但张卫健的星途就不太顺利,事业三起四落,就像坐过山车一样起起跌跌。

宗教:天主教
个人座右铭:做人好比游泳,游累了也是不能停的

从念小学开始,张卫健就发现自己很爱演戏,喜欢研究人,上中学时养成一个习惯——坐在街上看人或是坐很挤的公共汽车,他一点也不觉得闷,因为那样可以听到别人讲话。同时,学校每次办舞台剧,他总是导演、编剧、演员、道具(人扮)……一手包办,表演潜质已显露出来。

中学毕业后,视陈百强为偶像的张卫健也像对方那样,向歌星的目标迈进。

1982年,他参加第一届新秀歌唱大赛,侥幸进入前三十名,第二年他又卷土重来,这次他没参加决赛就退出了,因为当时有唱片公司与他签约,谁知最后竟是一场空,失望之余,张卫健寄希望于第三届。果然是有志者事竟成,

1984年,他凭一曲《恋爱交叉》勇夺冠军和最佳台风奖,他的名字在一夜之间令全香港家喻户晓,成功经来得如此容易!想起前两界新秀歌唱大赛冠军得主梅艳芳和吕方的不俗发展,张卫健对自己的未来充满了憧憬,但命运却跟他开了个玩笑。当时,唱片公司并没有给他出个人大碟的机会,只是让他在一张杂锦唱片里唱了两首歌。加入“无线”拍剧,由于受一张娃娃脸和1.68米的身高限制,只能演些插科打诨的小角色。

为了生活,张卫健只有到歌厅、酒廊当驻唱歌手。那些客人根本就不是来听歌的,使他在唱歌的同时还要留心茶杯、烟灰缸会随时飞上台。有一段时间,他每天早上九点开始拍戏,晚上七点完工后再搭末班车到深圳登台,可忙来忙去,他所得到的酬劳却不及其他歌星的三分之一……种种与他那冠军身份不相称的待遇只有靠他自己调整心态。那时的张卫健,远不像如今这样能客观对待名利。

就在这段失意岁月,有个人的一句话却令他铭记于心,成为他日后演艺路上的座右铭,一直支持他继续奋斗下去。

1991年,Dicky接拍香港TVB《老友鬼鬼》,并有机会在神话剧《日月神剑》中与郭晋安分饰日、月神侠,苦熬八年的他凭着搞笑手段脱颖而出,备受无线重视,终于在香港一炮打响,并创下当时香港剧集收视率的最高纪录,事业渐露曙光。

张卫健接着他担纲主演的《我爱牙擦苏》将他推上成功的舞台。一时间,他成了娱乐圈风头最劲的人物。其诙谐的表演风格被各大电影片商看中,纷纷找他拍电影。一来他被传媒封为“周星驰接班人”,但他的片酬只是周天王的1/10;二来他也有一定的票房保证,所以光是1993年,他便拍了12部电影。最让他高兴的是,连唱片公司也找他出唱片。

入行八年,张卫健终于有了自己的第一张个人专辑《真真假假》,还拿了好几个乐坛新人奖,那种喜悦的心情的确难以言表。但,这一切偏偏又好景不长,张卫健的走红只是昙花一现。由于他接戏太多,曝光率太频繁,而且接拍的多是些无聊的搞笑片,观众看腻了就不再捧场;所出的唱片也不讨歌迷的欢心,他的声势渐渐滑落。

1994年,没有人再找他拍戏、出唱片,迫于生计,他把走红时买的大房子卖了。比起以前那段未红的日子,走红后瞬间又从顶风滑落的苦楚更令人觉得难以承受。

后来,台湾现代派唱片公司看好张卫健,邀他过档发展,他的事业因此出现了转机,接连在台湾推出的三张国语唱片,平均销量达15万张,而且又拍剧又主持节目,还入选“十大偶像”。没想到,在香港倒霉的张卫健却在台湾红了起来。

重返“无线”拍《西游记》是张卫健事业的第三个高峰,这个剧的收视率高达40%,为“无线”创下广告费及版权费两亿元的进帐。张卫健功不可没。他把猴精演绎得出神入化,甚获好评。这一番重振声威,张卫健原本以为可以在续集里再次大显身手,还想了套全新的演绎方法,可事情却没有他想象中那么顺利。首拍《西游记》,张卫健忙碌大半年只赚到九万港币,因此在洽谈续集片酬时,他很自然地为自己要求了一个合理的酬金,但“无线”却接受不了,指责他“狮子大开口”。如果公司不拍这套戏,他也不可能红起来。双方闹得不欢而散。

此地不留人,自有留人处。张卫健离开“无线”后并没有进入低潮,他继续在台湾和内地发展,而且钱也赚了不少。但张卫健却觉得前两年他像没了灵魂,不知道自己在干什么,拍戏给谁看。以前他拍的影视片,整个东南亚,甚至是美国和加拿大都可以看到,但现在却没了香港这一部分。

张卫健星途坎坷,精力由外放到内敛,一切冷暖只有他明白,歌坛的发展并不顺利,并没有让他痛恨唱歌,原来他发自内心喜欢音乐,是无论如何都不会变的。他说可以为了取悦别人去搞笑去演戏,但是,唱歌来自他的内心……

1999年拍摄《少年英雄方世玉》一炮而红,成为中港台家喻户晓的港台明星,从此事业一帆风顺。如今他已成为中港台知名的歌手和演员。

感情生活
初恋情人江欣燕
张卫健和张茜江欣燕是张卫健的初恋情人,他对她是“一见钟情”。恋情维持不到四年,因为有第三者介入而分手。

那年,张卫健才18岁,作为香港无线电视台新秀歌唱选拔赛冠军的他,在为下一届新秀参赛者做“新秀”江欣燕。“第一眼看到她时,我就被电到了,从此.她走到哪儿,我的眼神就跟到哪儿。”拍了十几年的戏,也许台词背多了,张卫健口才非常好,形容自己和江欣燕“电光石火”般爱情燃起那一刹时,张卫健眼神是“亮晶晶”的,表情恨陶醉。

可惜,这段从18岁谈到23岁的爱情。虽纯真浪漫,却经不起现实的考验。张卫健在香港无线电视台混了8年还没红。江欣燕等了他多年,一次又一次给他机会,最后,还是选择离开他。两人分手时,江欣燕曾对张卫健说:“我不是要嫁一个富有的人不然我不会等你这么多年可是你实在太让我没有安全感了你连自己每个月的生活费用都搞不定,还要借钱度日……”。当时,张卫健曾恳求她再给他一年的机会,“再给你一年,你保证你会红吗?”张卫健哑口无言,就这样,他痛苦地放开了她的手。失去这段刻骨铭心的恋情后,张卫健发誓要好好努力工作,让她看看,自己也有红的一天。

最爱的女人宣萱
张卫健曾说过,宣萱是他最爱,当年他际遇不佳,造成这段感情变质,一直很遗憾。张卫健对宣萱是“曰久生情”那时,张卫健和万梓良、宣萱合拍《龙兄鼠弟》。宣萱在剧中是万梓良的女友,剧外因为工作中朝夕相处,却成了张卫健的爱侣。和宣萱分手后的3年时间里张卫健没有再谈恋爱。

绯闻女友黎姿
张卫健与另一长发靓女黎姿有段似有若无的关系,但是碰到两人都正在发展事业,因此大家都却步了。张卫健认为感情是双方的事,并没有谁追谁,那样就变得有点强求的意味,好像你拼命去拉扯对方,让对方跟你一样产生相同的爱意,那样实在没意思;而且他基本上对女追男的恋爱方式有点排斥,这会令高度稳定性的他感到不安,深怕自己的女友哪天又去追别人。张卫健说初恋让他学会一件事,那就是当他再度面临恋情时,如果发觉对方脚踏两条船,即“二话不说,马上闪。”

与张茜结婚
2009年1月12日,张卫健和张茜结束10年爱情长跑,在菲律宾圣奥古斯汀教堂举行婚礼。与周慧敏倪震的简朴低调相反,这对新人将高调与奢华进行到底,整个婚礼预计花费500万元。

婚礼所在地被安排在菲律宾历史悠久的圣奥古斯丁教堂,前往菲律宾观礼的圈中好友包括许志安和郑秀文、韩红、苏永康、梁汉文夫妇以及狄波拉等,谢霆锋和陈奕迅则因档期来不了。婚礼将于当日下午2:30在教堂举行,之后在泳池边设酒会和放烟花。张卫健透露,整个婚礼预计花费500万元。婚礼会由《超级访问》的李静主持,她也是两人的多年好友。不过最让张茜担心的还是张卫健的酒量,所以,还特别邀请了韩红帮忙挡酒:“因为她能喝啊!要找人挡酒,她绝对是第一个。”

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Hong Kong

361 Degrees 6.26
Bank of China 3.99
China Construction Bank 6.09
COSCO Intl Holdings Ltd. 4.5
HSBC Holdings plc 80.15
New World Development Co. Ltd 15.64
Singamas Container Holdings Ltd 1.39
Sino-Ocean Land 6.8
SOHO China 4.39
TENCENT 158.1
Wharf (Holdings) Ltd 45
Yuexiu Property 2.02

韋小寶

職業 : 小流氓、清廷太監、天地會香主、神龍教白龍使背景

韋小寶是市民社會中,中國遊民最惡劣分子——流氓的典型代表。市井文化與遊民文化是相輔相成的。而韋小寶就是這種市井文化與遊民文化的結合體。

毋庸諱言,韋小寶是一個地地道道的“婊子養的”。他的母親正是清康熙年間揚州麗春院(妓女院)的一個人到中年,姿色一般的妓女,名叫韋春花。

他一生最重要的機遇,便是生於妓院而遇於宮廷。倘若他不是生於妓院,“見過世面”——這一句非常重要,切記切記——練得一身無賴無恥機靈百變的功夫,就是遇於宮廷也只能是枉然,反倒會送了一條性命,早就被大太監海大富殺死了。即使不殺死也至多不過一個小假太監罷啦,到發現他是一個小太監之時便會是他的斃命之時。

可是,韋小寶偏偏生於妓院,遇於宮廷,雖不免受點小小的驚嚇,但這小驚小嚇對於韋小寶來說算不了什麼。可以說韋小寶的經歷完全是一帆風順,嚴絲合縫,命中註定要富貴榮華而又驚天動地的。

至若宮中有賭錢之樂,這可是韋小寶沒想到的,與揚州妓院就更像上幾分了。進而碰上又有“白食”可吃(原是給皇上準備的),而居然又有架可打(他那時可不知道與他打架的對手“小玄子”正是當今皇上玄燁——康熙),就使得韋小寶樂而忘返了。試想,賭錢是“樂”,白食是“吃”,而打架是“玩”,有此三種。韋小寶如何還生去意?等到韋小寶發現“小玄子”就是康熙“今上”時,他本應嚇得逃遁,然而一是他與小玄子打架已打出了交情,二是他也出不去,再次則正是他時來運轉,飛黃騰達的機會來了!韋小寶一生的“光輝業績”是從協助康熙鬥殺鼇拜開始。這一事件影響之大為韋小寶始料未及,真正是名揚天下,永垂青史。

也許這就正是宮廷朝上與妓院市井相一致的地方了:即不擇手段地達到目的,沒什麼上流下流,沒什麼有恥無恥。

自此而往,韋小寶在妓院中所學到的那一套諸如不擇手段,見機行事,撒謊行騙,

溜鬚拍馬,賭咒發誓,偷竊扒拿,落井下石……等種種功夫宮廷中居然都找到了“用武之地”並且還是無往而不利,使他逢凶化吉,左右逢源,福星高照,飛黃騰達。而這恰是因為外人看起來是神秘莊重的宮廷,其實與妓院一般是貪污腐化,卑鄙無恥,蕆汙納垢,虛偽骯髒之所。

韦小宝-基本资料

韦小宝-人物概述
《鹿鼎记》是金庸先生最后一部长篇小说,也是与以往风格有很大区别的一部作品。想必这部小说的男主人公——韦小宝大家都不陌生了。他从小在扬州妓院长大,天天耳濡目染嫖客们的各式丑态,自己沾染了满身市井之气,油嘴滑舌。他不会任何武功却敢独自一人闯江湖,虽然经历了重重的危难险阻,但凭借他的聪明才智,察言观色,每次都可以逢凶化吉。他游走于各大帮会、周旋皇帝朝臣之间并奉旨远征云南、脱险俄罗斯,……太多太多的惊险历程,却处处化险为夷。不由得让人佩服他的聪明机智。

韦小宝官场绝招
1、适度遮掩隐瞒。
请看韦小宝处理卢一峰痛的办法:官场之中,有道是‘瞒上不瞒下,天大的事情,只消遮掩得过去,谁也不会故意把黑锅拉到自己头上。再看吴三桂教韦小宝隐瞒的方法:“韦兄弟,咱们做官的要诀,是报喜不报忧。”果然韦小宝一点就透,在攻打神龙岛时,听了战报,心想:“你也来谎报军情了。神龙的少年教徒,最多也不过八九百人,那有三千多名之理?好在杀敌越多,功劳越大。就算报他四千、五千,又有何妨?”

2、牢记拉老乡关系。
请看韦小宝初见吴三桂那段:韦小宝听他说话中带着扬州口音,倒有三分欢喜,心道:“辣块妈妈,你跟我可是老乡哪。”说道:“这个却不敢当,卑职岂敢高攀?”话中也加了几分扬州口音。吴三桂笑道:“韦爵爷是扬州人吗?”韦小宝道:“正是。”吴三桂笑道:“那就更加好了。小王寄籍辽东,原籍扬州高邮。咱们真正是一家人哪。”

3、来点聚财有方。
韦小宝先以“请命费”名义,筹钱100万两给施琅带到京城打点,然后韦小宝升堂,向众官员道:“昨晚施将军启程赴京,这请命费算来算去,总还是差了一百多万。兄弟为了全台百姓着想,只好将历年私蓄,还有七位夫人的珠宝首饰,一古脑儿又凑了一百万两银子,交施将军带去使用打点。唉,在台湾做官,可真不容易,兄弟只不过暂且署理,第一天便亏空了一百万。我这可是倾家荡产,全军覆没了。

台湾府知府躬身说道:“大人爱护百姓,为民父母,真是万家生佛。除了公库垫款六十多万要还之外,韦大人这一百万两银子,自然也是要全台百姓奉还的。

韦小宝点头道:“你们每个人也都垫了银子,个个都弄得两袖清风什么的,这个我也不是不知道。你们官大的垫了成万两,官小的垫了数千两、数百两不等,大家齐心合力,为来为去,都是为了众百姓。这些垫款,自然也是要地方上归还的。咱们做父母官的,也不能向老百姓算利息,大家吃些亏,拿回本钱,也就算了,这叫做爱民如子。

众官大喜,一齐称谢,均觉这位韦大人体贴下情,有财大家发,果然是一位好上司。

韦小宝第一天署官,便刮了一百万两银子,此后财源滚滚,花巧多端,不必细表。再看韦小宝索贿的法子:先转说吴三桂想造反的传闻,然后用这里奢华已胜过当今皇帝来推定其没有造反的必要,最后说:“你做到王爷,有钱不使,又做什么王爷?你倘若嫌金银太多,担心一时花不完,我跟你帮忙使使,有何不可?哈哈!”另外,韦小宝知道想贿赂收得多,第一是要对方有所求,第二是要对方有所忌,因此,奉旨到扬州,宣旨已毕后,韦小宝说道:“众位大人,兄弟出京之时,皇上吩咐,江苏一省出产殷富,可是近年来吏治松弛,兵备也不整饬,命兄弟好好查察整顿。皇上对扬州百姓这么爱惜,咱们居官的,该当尽心竭力,报答圣恩才是。”一番话,既点明了知道本地富有的实情,又借整顿为名予以卡压,端的高明之极。

4、不妨大帽子压人。
为了见到行刺吴三桂的阿珂,韦小宝抬出了皇帝:韦小宝脸色一沉,道:“王爷遇刺,伤势很重,倘若有甚么三长两短,两短三长,那可谁也脱不了干系。本人回到北京,皇上自然要仔仔细细的问上一番,刺客是甚么人?何人指使?我如不亲眼瞧个清清楚楚,皇上问起来,又怎么往上回?难道你叫我胡说一通吗?这欺君之罪,我自然担当不起。夏总兵,嘿嘿,只怕你也担当不起哪!”

5、经常心口不一,表里不一。
韦小宝对他人就不要说了,且看对师傅如何:“陈近南道:”这就是了,你如言不由衷,做了对不起大伙的事,我第一个就饶不得你。“韦小宝道:”师父你放一百二十个心。“心道:”放一百一十九个心罢!我自己就有点不大放心。“

6、巧用欲加之罪。
韦小宝看到施琅居功自傲后,先以其战船留有台湾标记为由,后又在施琅的郑成功祭文中挑刺,把施琅与伍子婿的诅咒亡国相比,并以不懂“鸟尽弓藏”的意思相问,把个施琅整治得服服贴贴。

7、一定要找对门路。
施琅为了攻打台湾报仇,想到的办法是找门路,且看索额图是如何说他的:“你甚么都学乖了,居然知道韦大人是皇上驾前第一位红官儿,走他的门路,可胜于去求恳十位百位王公大臣。”这可是官场办事的不二法门,就是耿直的施琅也慢慢参透了。

8、多多溜须拍马。
韦小宝是溜须拍马的高手,别人拍他的马屁,他的感受是:“对别人的谄谀也不会当真,但听人奉承,毕竟开心。”再如韦小宝听了施琅的溜拍,心想:“你在北京熬了三年,已精通做官的法门,老子本想干了你,瞧你如此精乖,倒有些不忍了。‘满汉第一勇士这个头衔,今日倒是第一次听见,亏你想得出。”可见,拍马的手段施之任何人都会有效。

9、巧妙推卸责任。
例如索额图回答韦小宝征求让施琅攻打台湾一事,他道:“皇上英明,高瞻远瞩,算无遗策,咱们做奴才的,一切听皇上吩咐办事就是了。”韦小宝心想:“你倒滑头得很,不肯担干系。由此可见,推卸责任实是官运长久之道。

10、千万不可傲慢。
你看:“文武百官迎接钦差大臣,或恭谨逾恒,马屁十足;或奉承得体,恰到好处,惟有一个大胡子武官却神色傲慢,行礼之时显是敷衍了事,浑不将韦小宝瞧在眼里。韦小宝大怒,立时便要发作。”所以,人在官场,就得戴一付假面皮,否则,不经意间就会结怨。再看韦小宝,性子随和,对下属也说有说有笑,所以人人愿意效力。相反,装门面、摆架子,故意制造神秘的洪教主却落得人们对他阳奉阴违。

11、用有本事而不得志之人。
韦小宝知道凡事有本事之人,不肯拍马屁,喜欢拍马屁的,便是跟他差不多。因此,水战他提携闲置的施琅,不过也是因为施琅找了他的门路。更绝的是,为了陆战,他找曾经对他不敬的一个叫不上名的大胡子军官,后来知道叫赵良栋的,帮他剿灭了王屋山的匪乱,后来平叛吴三桂,还救过韦小宝的命。可见,自己没本事,但是会用人,那也一样能成事。

12、得饶人处且饶人。
韦小宝奉旨下扬州,原想挖尽禅智寺前的数千株芍药,听了在布政司转弯抹角、大费心机的一番说话,明白了人家意在保全这禅智寺前的数千株芍药,因而按照做官的诀窍,首在大家过得去,这叫做“花花轿子人抬人”,“你既然捧了我,我就不能一意孤行,叫扬州通城的官儿脸上都下不来。”韦小宝对官场规则真是深有心得。

13、惠而不费做人情。
为了答应双儿杀掉狗官吴之荣,且看韦小宝是如何做人情的:“我须当显得十分为难,她才会大大见我的情。”又如,桑结和葛尔丹明明为神龙教所擒,幸得韦小宝释放洪夫人,将他二人换了回来,但在韦小宝说来,倒似是他二人将敌人打得大败亏输一般。桑结脸有惭色,心中暗暗感激。葛尔丹却眉飞色舞,在心上人之前得意洋洋。此乃口头人情,更是厉害。

14、切忌自居功劳。
韦小宝每次立功,都不自居,对下说是大伙鼎力相助,并大赏弟兄部下,对上大赞是皇上洪福和神机妙算。这种清醒,恐非一般人能够做得。再他是如何教施琅的:“是啊,你这次平台功劳不小,朝中诸位大臣,每一个送了多少礼啊?”施琅一怔,道:“这是仗着天子威德,将士用命,才平了台湾,朝中大臣可没出什么力。”韦小宝摇头道:“老施啊,你一得意,老毛病又发作了。你打平台湾,人人都道你金山银山,一个儿独吞,发了大财。朝里做官的,那一个不眼红?”施琅急道:“大人明鉴,施琅要是私自取了台湾一两银子,这次教我上北京给皇上千刀万剐,凌迟处死。”韦小宝道:“你自己要做清官,可不能人人跟着你做清官啊。你越清廉,人家越容易说你坏话,说你在台湾收买人心,意图不轨。这么说来,你这次去北京,又是两手空空,什么礼物也不带了?”施琅道:“台湾的土产,好比木雕、竹篮、草席、皮箱,那是带了一些的。

韦小宝哈哈大笑,只笑得施琅先是面红耳赤,继而恍然大悟,终于决心补过,当下向韦小宝深深一揖,说道:“多谢大人指点。卑职这次险些儿又闯了大祸。”敬告大家千万不要功成得意,自酿其祸。

韦小宝-七个老婆
韦小宝按照出场顺序依次是双儿、建宁公主、方怡、沐剑萍、曾柔、苏筌、阿珂 七位夫人之中,最突出的是苏荃和建宁公主。
苏荃原是神龙教主洪安通的夫人,她年纪最长,也本领最大。她的出身金庸完全没有透露,初时见她千娇百媚地傍 着老而丑的洪教主,为他暗里操练红卫兵式的少年队铲除老手下。到后来才知道她是他强迫下嫁,至于怎样强迫,她心中又有何盘算,故事便没有说出来。 她初见韦小宝时他是阶下囚,她是有权有势的教主跟前红人,韦小宝一味称赞讨好,她虽然高兴,也未必怎样动心。丽春院一场闹剧大被同眠,苏荃也怀了韦小宝的孩子,这有没有使她对他观感大改很难说,但到了最后,神龙教发生叛变,洪教主被围攻杀死,她反正没有更好的去处,跟了韦小宝,绝非下策。 苏荃是不是真心爱一个人是另一回事,但似乎她视保护丈夫、令他愉快为做妻子的职业道德,倒是个上佳娶妻人选。她最大快人心之举是制服刁蛮的建宁公主,使她不敢对韦小宝大呼小喝、拳打 脚踢。
这公主奇特之处是她的性虐狂癖好。那段她在禁宫对韦小宝施虐。激使他倒过来虐待她的奇文,真不明白金庸何处想来。建宁公主其实是韦小宝的“初试云雨 情”伴侣,竟是如此乌云暴雨,也真令人啼笑皆非。她跟随韦小宝,自是为了与他一起性生活美满了,宁愿受苏荃的气也要跟他,韦小宝想必有他令人难忘之处。双儿除外,韦小宝的其他女友夫人就没有苏荃和建宁公主那么特别了。
小郡主 沐剑屏年纪最小,最天真稚气,心地最好,开始时恼恨韦小宝胡说八道讨人便宜,后来觉得他没有恶意,也就跟他谈笑得很开心了。
方怡年纪较长,心事复杂得多,而且懂得以自己的美色诱骗人;使韦小宝两番上当,坠入陷井,但韦小宝根本不讲 究“内在美”,尽管他恼恨方怡出卖他,也不会因此而打消娶她的念头。
曾柔人如其名,是个温柔女子,心思细密,她与同门行刺韦小宝失手被擒,韦小宝看她美貌分上,掷骰子作弊饶了他们,她心怀感激,一直把这副灌铅骰子带在 身上留念。除此之外,曾柔别无可记之处。

韦小宝亲点的“元配正室大老婆”阿珂,是陈圆圆跟吴三桂所生的女儿,两岁 时被本是长平公主的九难拐去,以为日后报复吴三桂的工具。(这真是败笔。拐去仇人女儿,要她长大后行刺亲生父,桥段陈旧,加上原来并不真心传她武功,存心要她送死,使观音似贞一个白衣神尼变成阴毒的妖婆,十分扫兴。)众女之中,以阿珂生得最美,因此韦小宝一见她也是最色授魂予,不能自己,发誓不要性命也要 取她为妻。阿珂完全没有个性,她被韦小宝这市井小人非礼,急怒之下横刀自刎, 不过是一时冲动,不是因为她怎样洁身自爱,见了郑克爽那种绣花枕头的“公子” ,马上死心塌地,还不是少女的虚荣心作崇。“公子”品行下流,她亲眼所见,但全不觉不妥,证明她跟韦小宝一样,也不是个讲究“内在美”的人。 阿珂有草包公子作心上人,方怡也有少不更事的师兄为意中人,两个本来都讨 厌韦小宝,但韦氏一边气苦恼怒,一边积极施展手段夺爱,运用权势、威逼利诱、 奸计蒙骗,无所不为,结果还不是解决情敌,“桂公公双手抱佳人。”这倒十分合情理,二妞原先爱慕这二位公子,只因在她们有限的眼界之中,他二位己是高大威猛,到头来败者为寇,还有什么吸引力可言?

《易经》:怎样在绝境中寻求转机

本期主讲:张国明沈阳市历史教育研究会秘书长,沈阳市周易研究会副秘书长,北京联合大学易学特约研究员。

凝聚着中国古圣先贤古老智慧的《易经》,曾长久地被误解为一本算命的书。随着科技的发展,东西方文化的交融,《易经》越来越受到中外科学界、文化界的重视,西方学者称之为“一部奇妙的未来学著作”。

《易经》究竟是一部什么样的书呢?我们又如何才能够读懂古老而神秘的《易经》?而懂了《易经》的道理,对于我们的人生会有什么意义呢?

六十四卦代表了什么?是我们的祖先把宇宙所有的事情归纳起来,概括成的六十四种代表情境。六十四卦对我们的人生究竟有什么作用?是当我们遇到事情的时候,能够按图索骥,明白自己的处境,知道自己应把握的基本原则,清楚怎么应对。《周易》中运用八卦预测信息的方法的发明,正是我国人民具有唯物主义世界观的真实写照,他们在实践很好地认识社会、改造社会、推动社会不断的向前发展。所以,易卦及《周易》,是个储存量很大的信息库。

其实,每个人的命运都掌握在自己手里,每个人的卦也都是由自己画的。

本期开始,我们就从成语典故入手为您通解《易经》的符号,探求《易经》的生存智慧在生活中的应用法则。

易理应用
无论是老子的福祸相依还是《淮南子》中的塞翁失马,无论是老百姓信奉的“吃亏是福”,还是“冬天来了,春天还会远吗”的吟咏,都体现了大道同源的道理,它们都可以理解为是“否极泰来”“剥尽复返”的演绎版,《周易》的这四个卦构成的两个格言启迪了我们的智慧:“困难时、低谷时信心比任何东西都重要”。

那么具体说来,我们在生活陷入低谷时,应该怎样借用易经的智慧来思考呢?

应该从这样四个方面去结合自己的实际情况思考:

一、要相信物极必反,否极泰来是事物本身的规律。首先树立信心,记住“有信心就有希望赢。”
正如黑夜之后必然是黎明;严冬过后必然是春意一样,这些规律是客观的,不管你相信与否,它就是这样运行的。一走入人生严冬的谷底,距离百花争艳的春天还会远吗,失意落寞之时不妨用吉人自有天相宽慰自己,要知道,山重水复之地往往也就是柳暗花明之时。

二、不要相信运气、点子之类的东西,所谓坏运气,很大程度无非是自身不愿正视现实的一个借口,考试失利、升迁无望、生活当中诸如此类不尽如人意的地方统统归结为坏运气,反躬自省这一切不都是一个自欺欺人的托词吗。

三、要相信无论是强大的对手,还是强大的困难,总会有弱点、有漏洞。而那个弱点和漏洞,就是你绝地反击反败为胜的机会。这个时候,冷静最重要。沿历史的长河溯流而上,无数外强中干的例子将博你会心一笑,官渡之战是历史上著名的以少胜多的实例,战争之前,面对敌强我弱的局势,曹操的首席智囊郭嘉丝毫未让敌方兵强马壮的表象左右自己的判断,而是独具慧眼地看清敌人色厉内荏的本质,从而向曹操提出了“绍(袁绍)有十败,公(曹操)有十胜”这条著名的论断。

四、要准确判断自身的实力,及时调整战略,等待合适时机,做出与自身能力、客观条件、大环境相符的正确选择,要知道一蹶不振者没有机会,没有自知之明一味蛮干者同样没有机会。

否极泰来

【卦名通解】

否、泰,《周易》中的两个卦名。

否卦,上卦三阳爻为乾卦为天,下卦三阴爻为坤卦为地,天阳之气是清的,运动规律是上行的,地阴之气是浊的,运动规律是下行的,卦象显示出天地不交、阴阳不通之象。

以一个团体比喻象征团体的领导高高在上,不关心百姓生活,官民关系紧张。矛盾的双方不沟通,不交流,当然无助于矛盾的解决。否卦的卦辞说:否卦,遇到了小人,不利君子守正,好的局面过去了坏的局面到来了。

泰卦,上卦三阴爻为坤卦为地,下卦三阳爻为乾卦为天。地阴之气是浊的,运动规律是下行的,天阳之气是清的,运动规律是上行的。正是天地相交、阴阳相通之象。

以一个团体比喻象征团体的领导能够放下身姿,礼贤下士,到群众中去,关心百姓生活,倾听民间疾苦,官民关系和谐。矛盾的双方得以沟通,得以交流,当然有助于矛盾的解决。泰卦的卦辞说:泰卦,不好的局面过去了,好的局面到来了,吉利,亨通。

否极泰来寓意逆境达到极点,就会向顺境转化。指坏运到了头,好运就来了。用哲学的理论来讲,就是事物总是互相转化的:一个人不可能总是处于坦途,也不可能总是处于逆境,有失败当然也会有成功。人生总是变幻莫测的,在自己功成名就的时候,不要贪得无厌,要适可而止、见好就收;在自己遭遇挫折的时候,千万不要半途而废,轻言放弃,因为成功往往是从失败中得来的,在失败中找到失败的根源,最终会反败为胜。

【经典案例】
一个战败的将军,拖着疲惫的身体,躲进一个破旧的茅草屋里。他的军队被敌人打散,现在只有他一个人躺在地上,呆呆地望着屋顶。忽然,他发现一只蜘蛛在屋顶的一个角落里织网,风很大,这只蜘蛛费了好大劲才把两根蛛丝固定住,下面它开始进行最艰难的工作,编蜘蛛网。风太大了,每次都快结成网时,被风吹破。一次,两次,三次……将军默默数着,蜘蛛一共结了七次,也被风吹破了七次。将军自言自语:“你也是失败了七次。”当蜘蛛第八次织网时,将军说:“放弃吧,你已经尽力了。”但蜘蛛没有,蜘蛛再次仔细检查了着力点,慢慢地,将一根蛛丝再次接了起来,这一次它成功了。将军跳起来,大声说道:“它可以成功,我也可以。”于是,将军整了整衣帽,走出茅草屋,重新召集被敌人打散的兵马,与敌人再一次进行决斗,终于打败了对手,凯旋而归。他就是英国将军——威灵顿。威灵顿在不久之后的滑铁卢战役中,最终打垮了拿破仑,取得了最后的胜利.他的形象出现在5英镑纸币上,他后来又担任了英国首相、陆军元帅。

【易理启示】
作为一个身经百战的军事家,面对过于强大的对手,暂时的失利总是在所难免的,但无数次战争带来的不可复制的经验,军队中崇高的威望带来的众望所归的期许,这些资本都在己方实力上添加了无形的筹码,一方是东山再起、绝地反击的败军之将,一方是强弩之末、骄气日盛的常胜将军,短兵相接之时,昔日的败将终于一战成名,改写历史。

看似一件微不足道的蜘蛛结网的小事,激发出威灵顿战胜自我的勇气,让我们明白最大的敌人不是别人,恰恰是自己。

剥尽复返

【卦名通解】

剥、复,《周易》中的两个卦名。
剥卦,上卦为艮卦为山,下卦三阴爻为坤卦为地,山阳之气是清的,运动规律是上行的,地阴之气是浊的,运动规律是下行的,卦象显示出天地不交、阴阳不通之象。

以一个家庭比喻象征丈夫高高在上,只关心自己权益,不关心妻子生活,夫妻关系紧张。矛盾的双方不沟通,不交流,当然无助于矛盾的解决,只能使矛盾激化。剥卦的卦辞说:不利去做事情。

复卦,上卦三阴爻为坤卦为地,下卦为震卦为雷。地阴之气是浊的,运动规律是下行的,雷阳之气是清的,运动规律是上行的。正是天地相交、阴阳相通之象,以一个家庭比喻象征丈夫能够放下身姿,关心爱护妻子,夫妻关系和谐。矛盾的双方得以沟通,得以交流,当然有助于矛盾的解决。泰卦的卦辞说:复卦,亨通,出入都顺利,朋友来聚会,好的局面再次回来,前去做事吉利。

剥尽复返同样寓意逆境达到极点,就会向顺境转化。指坏运到了头,好运就来了。

【经典案例】
孙膑,战国中期齐国人。少时即显示了惊人的军事才能,不料却因此遭人嫉妒暗算。师弟庞涓把孙膑骗到魏国砍掉了孙膑双脚,并在他的脸上刺上犯罪的标志。孙膑倒卧在血泊之中,他再也站不起来了,而且,还有人时时刻刻监视着他。必须想个脱身之法才是。不久,孙膑疯了,他一会儿哭,一会儿笑,叫闹个不停。庞涓听说了这些,并不相信,便叫人把他扔到猪圈去,又偷偷观察。孙膑披头散发地倒在猪圈里,弄得满身是猪粪,甚至把粪塞到嘴里大嚼起来。庞涓认为孙膑是真疯了,从此看管逐渐松懈下来。孙膑藏身于齐国使臣的车子里,秘密地回到了齐国。公元前354年,庞涓发兵8万,以突袭的办法将赵国的都城邯郸包围。孙膑趁魏国国内兵力空虚之机,发兵直取魏都大梁,迫使魏军弃赵回救。主将庞涓被活捉。这就是历史上有名的“围魏救赵”。

【易理启示】
一个少年得志的人,本来前途无量,却突遭横祸,受尽凌辱,没有了双脚,但他能够凭借才华、谋略在人类军事史上立起一座不朽的丰碑,靠的是什么?是不屈服于命运安排的顽强的意志;是竞争激发出的无限潜能;是清醒的头脑、冷静地判断:对自己能力的自信、对对手实力的准确评估。

看起来是灭顶之灾,前路漫漫、危机四伏,胜算的几率微乎其微,但只要有冷静的头脑,清醒地分析自己的实力,然后寻找转机。记住,你只能被打败,但绝对不能被打垮。

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

需要思考的几个投资问题

1、股价的长期走势与企业的发展有关还是与“价值”投资者认为未来他应该如何走有关?

2、企业经营的过程是要尽量满足用户需求和现实的生意情况,还是要尽量附和金融投资理论?

3、企业可以通过提升核心竞争力以至于垄断市场,然后勒索社会获得长期发展吗?

4、人类社会是一个相互倾轧的社会,还是一个共存共荣的社会?社会出现的基础是什么?秦始皇集团获得了最高的核心竞争力和垄断,为什么他迅速的倒台了?社会可以被任意宰割吗?

5、股价在大幅度下跌后投资,就可以不考虑企业风险问题,跌得多了就不会再下跌,企业会因为他的股价估值低而不出问题。

6、企业通过冒险经营,急功近利获得了快速发展,投资这样的企业赚钱快,没有太大风险,我能够在企业出问题后第一时间卖出他。

7、这一次与上一次不同,投资不要过于审慎,疑神疑鬼,这一次真的不同于上一次,雷曼的股东都是傻瓜,一百多美元买入他们,跌到四美分才出局,我确实赚钱了,而雷曼的股东没有。

8、上市的企业就不是企业了,不能用生意之道来判断他们,而应该用华尔街最主流的方法,主流的方法才是最安全的方法,投资就要跟着专家走。

9、第八条不对,投资不能跟着专家走,当然巴菲特不是专家,他是外行,跟着巴菲特不是跟专家,他的路五十年前走通了,我现在也一定能走通,未来尽在我的掌握,投资要有信心,不能疑神疑鬼,看企业是多余。

10、股票市场的参与者都是低智商的散户和蠢机构,他们的交易都是投机,不值得学习,我是投资,他们赚钱了是偶然,我亏钱了也是偶然,不能总结现实,现实是虚假的,书里面说的才是真实的,写书的人都是会投资的人,他们依靠投资发了大财,巴菲特好像亲笔写过书,只是我没读到过一本,奇怪?不过以讹传讹就够了,我赚钱还没到时候,一定的,股市会照顾我。

Is The New Bull Market Just a Hoax?

By, Simon Maierhofer
Mar 04, 2010
The small shock induced by the late January decline has been forgotten. Wall Street sees no reason for stocks to decline, even though a number of key components of the economy are in bad shape. For investors right now, it’s about being in the right assets at the right time. What are those?

Have you ever been at the right place at just the right time or the wrong place at the wrong time?

Can you relate to getting upgraded to first class because the plane was overbooked or getting a parking ticket within the first minute of the meter expiring?

In day-to-day life, much depends on being at the right place at the right time. When it comes to investing, much depends on being invested in the right “stuff” at the right time. Yes, there will be second chances, but there are no do-overs.

If fact, it is always harder to even out a mistake as it takes a 11% gain to make up for a 10% loss, a 43% gain to make up for a 30% loss and a 100% gain to make up for a 50% loss. In short, it helps to be right the first time.

Wall Street in general expects 2010 to be a very positive year. All 12 strategists polled by Bloomberg and Barron’s expect stocks (NYSEArca: SPY) to be up, on average 12%. This is despite the so-called “job-less recovery.”

Job-less recovery
The idea of a jobless recovery is as convincing as a fat free McDonalds meal. Consumers are the life-blood of any economy. An unemployed worker is not in a position to consume and propel the economy. Any economy can support a limited number of jobless consumers but not 15% or above.

But some say the U.S. only has a 10% unemployment rate, so we should be fine, right? CNNMoney reports that more than a million are set to lose their jobless benefits in March alone. By June this number will jump to about 5 million.

Since the Senate failed to push back the February 28 deadline to extend unemployment benefits, jobless workers won’t be able to rely on extended federal government support.

Federal unemployment benefits kicked in after the basic state-funded 26 weeks of coverage expire. When the economy was in freefall, Congress had approved up to an additional 73 weeks of federal benefits. The average unemployment period has reached an all-time high of 30.2 weeks while the number of workers unemployed for more than 26 weeks has hit a record of over 40%.

Even worse than expected
If you think this is bad, consider the following: The unemployment number commonly publicized is 9.7%. This is the U-3 unemployment rate. The actual unemployment rate – U-6, which is a more comprehensive measure of unemployment – published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is 18% (new numbers to be released on Friday). The BLS is the government agency that tracks unemployment, CPI and many other statistics.

Falling for the hoax
Interestingly, Wall Street and Main Street in general tend to believe the notion of a jobless recovery. As long as stock prices go up, who is there to doubt? As the leading indexes were slowly grinding up to their January recovery highs, investors and investment advisors were overwhelmingly bullish.

While the Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) reached levels not seen in over 18 months, investor optimism spiked to levels not seen in several years, in the case of one indicator, (investors cash allocation) even decades. This kind of extreme and discrepancy provided a serious red flag for the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter.

On January 16, two trading days before the January 19 trading high, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter stated that: “bullish sentiment has reached a level where it is suffocating nearly all bearish currents and undertones. We believe that every day that brings higher prices presents a better opportunity for the bears.”

Within two weeks, the S&P dropped more than 100 points. One day before the S&P dropped to its intraday low for the year, the Newsletter said that “nothing goes down in one swift move and odds that some bounce to the upside will develop sooner or later are increasing. Dow 10,350 – 10,500 and S&P 1,110 – 1,125 are preliminary upside targets.”

With the major indexes having reached those targets, what’s next?

More reason for concern
Before looking at the short-term picture, let’s take a look at another bearish discrepancy – real estate.

January new home sales were expected to clock in at 354,000 (at an annual pace). The actual numbers came in at a record low 309,000. Home prices dropped 2.4% and the supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.1 months worth, the highest since May 2009.

Some 4.5 million homes are expected to hit the foreclosure market this year. As a point of reference, “only” 2.8 million homes were foreclosed in 2009. Over 42% of adjustable-rate mortgages were seriously delinquent and one in five homeowners was underwater in Q4 (according to Zillow.com).

Even the director of economics at Moody’s (the same company that rated AIG as A+) expects home prices to continue falling through the end of the year. It is no secret that Moody’s outlook is generally on the rosy side.

What are the implications of this scenario?
If real estate (NYSEArca: IYR) does not recover, neither will banks’ (NYSEArca: KBE) toxic assets. Even though most have forgotten about toxic assets, it doesn’t mean they have miraculously disappeared.

It makes sense that the FDIC has shut down over 22 banks already this year, following the 140 banks in 2009, most of which are regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE).

More directly than even the bank/financial sector (NYSEArca: XLF), real estate ETFs such as the iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (NYSEArca: ICF), SPDRs Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR) and Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEArca: VNQ) are about to get hit. The only ETFs to benefit from falling real estate prices are the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEArca: SRS) and Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: DRV). Both ETFs are suitable for experienced investors only.

Analysts vs. reality
For investors, this environment is confusing. Analysts and economists predict higher prices and a general bright(er) future, while reliable long-term indicators point towards lower prices. What are those indicators?

The January S&P high came in just points below the S&P’s 2000-day moving average (MA). Additionally, the 500-day MA has crashed below the 2000 day moving average for the first time in five years (see January issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter).

Looking back over the past decade, do you remember any mainstream Wall Street analyst or economist predicting a major crash, such as technology (NYSEArca: XLK) in 2000, real estate in 2005 and financials in 2007? Did anyone see the rally from the March 2009 bottom? Analysts are always bullish (and usually bearish at market bottoms such as in March 2009). Generally, their views are proven incorrect and can often be used as reliable gauges.

Much more reliable than contrary analyst opinions are valuation metrics that reflect the intrinsic value of stocks. Like an internal thermometer they show whether the market is running hot or cold – overvalued or undervalued. You may be surprised to know that the market has registered the most overvalued readings of the 20th and 21st century.

The November issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes a detailed analysis of four undisputable gauges – Indicative of their implications, we’ve dubbed them the “Four Horsemen.” Each issue of the Newsletter includes a detailed short, mid and long-term forecast.

A concern for short-term investors should be the absence of volume. There’ve been ten trading days in 2010 that saw less than 1 billion shares of NYSE trading volume, eight of which occurred on days that the market closed upward. Two of them occurred this week. Conviction in this rally is drying up, will you be at the right place at the right time?

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

CHINA SHARES: A-shares may get 90 bln yuan boost from margin trading

Slow Start: The Shanghai Composite Index has lost 6.4% so far this year, one of the worst performers among 93 global benchmark indexes that Bloomberg tracks.

CHINA’S A-SHARE markets got more than a whiff of better times to come in a Securities Times report saying that a soon-to-be-launched pilot scheme for margin trading would potentially inject some 90 bln yuan into stocks in the program’s first stage.

This surely comes as good news to economic regulators and the securities watchdog as the key Shanghai Composite Index has lost 6.4% so far this calendar year, one of the worst performers among 93 global benchmark indexes that Bloomberg tracks.

The Chinese language piece cited analyst Fan Xiangpeng with Sinolink Securities as saying that brokerages would inject dedicated funds worth between 30% to 50% of their net asset value into the pilot project.

He also forecast that between 40-60 bln yuan would be injected into A-shares with the first group of six approved brokerages to be allowed participation in the pilot scheme.

And with the second batch of brokerages soon expected to receive participatory authorization, the markets would receive a total of some 90 bln yuan from the pilot program.

Margin trading is the practice of investors borrowing money from brokerages to put into the stock market.

Healthy Balance: Officials are hoping to bring more money into A-shares without getting the triple digit P/Es common on the GEM board.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the country’s bourse watchdog, announced last week that the following brokerages would be allowed to take part in the pilot program for margin trading:

CITIC Securities, Everbright Securities, GF Securities, Guosen Securities, Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities.

The six approved brokerages are likely to begin accepting margin trading account opening applications from investors by as early as March 29, official local media reported.

The securities regulator said last week that it would slowly broaden the pilot program, but that the pace and breadth of the expansion depended on how the market reacted.

If response from investors and brokerages is positive in the early stages of the program, this would likely result in the securities watchdog allowing margin trading to bring even more brokerages into the practice – and more funds into the A-share markets.

Eagerly waiting on the sidelines for CSRC approval to engage in margin trading are five other candidates.

The are: China Galaxy Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, Oriental Securities and Shenyin & Wanguo Securities.

China’s State Council, the country’s cabinet, announced earlier this year that it had also approved "in principle" the launch of index futures, while at the same time authorizing the country’s A-share markets to begin the licensing process for the upcoming margin trading pilot project.

The introduction of the two trading practices is intended to boost the stable and healthy development of the capital market, a CSRC official said at the time.

The moves come after the Shanghai Composite Index surged 80% in 2009 following a decidedly bearish 2008 in which the benchmark indicator fell 65%.

"This is a milestone in the development of the country's capital markets," said Xu Ling, general manager of Haitong Futures, adding that it would help moderate “wild fluctuations" in valuations.

Perhaps Mr. Xu’s praise for the government’s pilot program made its way to the right ears, as his brokerage has since been one of the lucky six to be authorized participation in the margin trading scheme.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

投資市場秘訣--邁向贏家之路

找一個適合自己模仿學習的“偶像”和老師
有人願意自己摸著石頭過河,有人願意交少少路費上高速公路
你選哪條路?

為什麼要向成功者學習
投資者想在投資市場成功獲利,有哪些方法?對於想成功的投資者,有兩條路可以走:
第一條路:自己埋頭苦幹,自己學習,總結,實踐再總結再實踐。
第二條路:向已經成功的人去學習,複製他們已經驗證成功的盈利模式。

“很少人能單憑一己之力,迅速名利雙收;真正成功的騎師,通常都是因為他騎的是最好的馬,才能成為常勝將軍。” ----世界第一行銷大師賴茲

第一種方法靠自己用數年的時間摸索出投資成功的方法,
第二種方法你用一個月的時間跟5位有十年投資成功經驗的投資大師學習,一個月就擁有了50年的經驗。
各位你感覺哪個方法更好更快?
當然是跟投資成功經驗的投資大師學習快。
第一種方法節省了向成功者學習的費用,但是走彎路時間和向市場交納的學費都是加倍的,中國開放以前,清朝閉關自守,自以為天下第一,付出沉重的代價。
第二種方法節省投資者在自己還處於投資運作不太熟悉的時候所走的彎路、耗費的時間和向市場交納的學費,這些投資失敗的學費都是不可控制和預算的。但是對於向成功者、投資大師學習的費用是屬於可以控制的,成功不只是要看達到自己的獲利的目標,還有看達到的時間的長短。
“股神”巴菲特在他還沒有確定自己的投資風格和交易體系的時候,他的投資經歷是和所有沒有成功的投資者一樣,真實的巴菲特是做著同樣的技術分析、打聽內幕消息,整天泡在費城交易所看走勢圖表和找小道消息,他不是一開始就會購買翻10多倍的可口可樂股票。但是如果巴菲特一直還是只靠技術分析、打聽內幕消息,或許現在還只是一名和大家一樣的小散戶或者已經破產了。幸好巴菲特沒有停下學習的腳步,他申請到跟隨價值投資大師格雷厄姆學習的學位,1957年又親自向知名投資專家費雪登門求教,在好友芒格的協助下,融合格雷厄姆和費雪兩者投資體系的特長,開始形成了自己的“價值投資“的投資體系,在實戰中不斷地摸索,成就為一代投資大師和世界首富。

6年時間由10萬增值為1000萬的崔偉宏,也是通過不斷地學習研究,他通過看《華爾街神童》這本書取經,書中介紹18歲美籍華人司徒延恩,從小用壓歲錢買股票,經常能找到漲幅一倍的股票,被華爾街譽為新一代巴菲特的接班人。還有崔偉宏不斷研究“股神”巴菲特等投資大師書籍,建立起自己有中國特色“長線是金”盈利模式。

股票、期貨、外匯交易已經有上百年的歷史,投資者可以通過在市場的隨機性的特點,讓所有的人都有可能憑運氣在市場上有過賺錢的經歷,但是在市場上賺錢的經歷並不等於有持久穩定在市場賺錢的能力,投資者很多都有過這樣的賺錢和賠錢的經歷。
市場上賺錢的方法很多種,但任何一種都不是隨手可得的,在市場上撈大錢離不開智慧和勤奮,和其他行業的成功並無不同。很多的投資者通過看很多的書籍、文章和講座試圖能來學習在市場穩定獲利的辦法。儘管成功的秘訣難以尋找,但是仍然可以通過自己在市場的磨練總結不同的技巧,需要的是要向市場繳納學費。
另外這些投資的秘訣,是可以通過學習和傳授的,最有效的學習捷徑之一是仿效榜樣------投資大師的成功方法。每位成功的投資大師都有一位或者數位的老師指導,進入投資市場的能長期穩定獲利的投資者不多,成功率不到10%,一個沒有實戰經驗的操盤新手,80%都會在3個月到一年內被淘汰掉。投資者只有放棄自己原來思考問題的方式,去學習那些投資大師的盈利模式。認識瞭解市場的特點和大師們成功的秘訣,根據自己自身情況的特點,選擇合適你自己的具體方式,按照這個方向努力。
要徹底擺脫“大眾化”的思維方式,學會像一個高水準的專業操盤手那樣思考問題。市場中充滿機會,日進鬥金的確實不少,但是都是些經歷過無數次優勝劣汰的沙場老將,要和他們競爭,別無他法,只能是加倍努力,付出更多的心血和汗水。對於初學者,唯一的方法和優勢就是要願意付出比別人多許多倍的努力。

在1994年底我有幸第一次見到我的老師美國八大期貨交易大師之一的斯坦利·克羅,他將他在華爾街的投資獲勝的秘訣傳授了給我。克羅老師說:“能夠持續不斷賺大錢的投資者,是那些建立長期持倉的人。”“錢是坐著賺回來的,不是靠操作賺回來的。”雖然我在1992年9月開始操作外匯期貨、恒生指數期貨和歐美期貨,已經有幾年的實戰經驗,但是對於克羅老師的這個理念還是用了1年多的時間才真正消化、領悟,將這個理念融入到我實戰中,在期貨、股票、外匯市場上多次交易中使用這套自己設計的中長線趨勢型交易體系,持續數月獲利每月超過100%。

1998年初指導鄭州我的一位學員操作鄭州綠豆期貨,按照我設計的中長線趨勢型交易體系進場做空綠豆,一個月時間就獲利100%,按照《投資合作協定》我們可以獲得利潤提成20%,但是當時客戶感覺錢這麼容易來,想賴帳,於是我的學員就拿著雙方簽訂協議書起訴到鄭州中原地區法院。

法官一看,白紙黑字寫得清清楚楚,不用打了,叫我們庭外和解。最後取回了我們應得的利潤分成。
在我近年來投資操作過程中,一邊操作一邊拜訪高手,每次交流後回來,都有新的提高。好的氛圍,會讓你成長的更快。深圳的股市高手崔偉宏談到他的“富裕規則”說:“寧可跟聰明人打架,也不跟糊塗人交友。因為讓他人獲得了新知,同時也會讓自己產生共鳴,有形、無形的交流,激發了靈感。在你亮出自己的觀點的同時,也會通過各種形式獲得回饋,在資訊的交流中會使人獲得更大的發展。”

“錢是坐著賺回來的,不是靠操作賺回來的。”——斯丹利·克羅

學習投資大師投資成功經驗的方法很多,可以看書、聽CD、看教學VCD、聽講座、上學習班、親自面對面和投資大師交流等。其中研究成功人士、投資大師的書籍是最節省、最容易的方法。很多投資者和我早期一樣,看了很多的書,聽了很多的股評、分析講座都沒能投資成功,原因出在哪里?

你通過看巴菲特、索羅斯的傳記,和跟你親自去請教巴菲特、索羅斯的成功秘訣,哪一個效果更好、更快?當然是當面親自請教巴菲特、索羅斯的成功秘訣效果更好、更快。就像你聽譚詠麟的CD和你現場聽譚詠麟現場演唱會哪一個感覺更加激烈?

很多投資者以為投資是自己一個人的事情,加上現在網路發達,通過網上交易,不需要到證券公司、期貨公司,缺乏了溝通學習能力。我曾經也有過這樣一個階段,但是當我認識要更快的提高自己的水準,尋找新的技術、盈利的突破口,就一定要向比我成功的人去學習、交流。對於向已經成功的人去學習,學習他們的經驗,這個就需要投資者自己具備相當地溝通交際能力和建立良好的人際關係網路。
有關如何向大師學習請看後面的專門介紹。

思考練習:
1.投資成功有兩條路可以走:1.自己埋頭苦幹2.向成功者學習,複製成功模式,讀者你選擇哪一條?為什麼?
2.你從小到現在,學習過程中有拜過明師學習?感覺自學的效果快還是跟老師學習效果更快?
3.“股神”巴菲特跟隨過哪個老師學習而確定了自己的成就一生的投資風格?
4. 深圳的股市高手崔偉宏談到他的“富裕規則”是什麼?

如何向投資大師、高手學習和學習他們的精髓?

你可以拒絕學習,但是你的對手不會。——前通用公司CEO 韋爾奇

成功者和投資大師在市場中是個成功者,但是對於怎樣表白自己如何在市場中獲勝的本質方面就不一定全面了。有些東西即使他們知道,但是如何通過媒體、書籍、語言傳達給投資者們,就會遇到難題。投資者很難有機會與大師深切溝通,在領悟能力上有所不同,對大師的經驗也有所偏好,導致資訊傳遞不全。投資者因此對這些大師的成功就會產生一種想法:在市場中成功是靠天分,或者特殊的技能。

對於如何去學習成功的大師們的經驗,分為4個方面:

1. 研究成功的投資者、大師投資成功的共性。
在研究這些成功投資者、大師的群體時,首先是要從研究成功的投資者、大師成功的共性開始,因為只有這些共性是所有成為成功的投資者都必須具備的和大家都能夠模仿學習到的。有些投資者剛開始的時候由於個人投資風格的某種偏好,只是研究某個自己認為很好的某個成功的投資者、大師,這樣只能發掘這個成功的投資者、大師的成長的特性,而忽略了其他成功的投資者、大師的共性。投資者只有發現和領悟了多位成功的投資者、大師的共性,發掘到他們在市場中長期獲勝的本質內涵,才達到真正學習的的。
筆者在十多年的投資過程中,接觸過很多類型的投資者,發現很多投資者,由於國內投資界的投資理論的空白,走了很多的彎路,並且形成了很多壞習慣,很難糾正。就像一個小孩在學走路的時候習慣了“八字腳”,一生都很難糾正。所以投資者在開始學習的時候一定要從成功的投資大師們的經驗入手,避免了走彎路。
例如所有的投資大師們都提到了“資金管理”的重要性,很多投資者一般都只是認識到把握市場方向和心理控制,而忽略了“資金管理”的決定性和對投資者心理衝擊的互動作用,這是投資者能否在市場中長期獲勝的中樞環節。還有這些投資大師們都具有非常強烈的“好勝心”,不斷地追求勝利。

2. 研究成功的投資者、大師如何學習這些投資技術。
最好的方法當然是有機會與成功的投資者、大師們一起交易。就像武俠小說的中的武林高手雲遊四海,尋找高人切磋武藝一樣。只有這樣,才是最好的、最快的學習方法。筆者有個朋友就是這樣,不斷地在全國各地去尋訪高手,親自向這些高手虛心學習,一年多時間學費交了上十萬元,終於學有所成,一年獲利數倍。但是前提條件是,大師們能很好的表達自己的經驗,傳授給投資者,因為有些成功的投資者、大師自己操作的很好,但是沒有上升為理論,就不可能很好的傳授給投資者。只能靠投資者自己具備相當的投資經驗和很好的領悟能力。
我曾經跟一位美國投資高手學習,在接觸後,發現他的性格非常的內向,不善言辭。我想起了世界第一推銷員——喬·吉拉德的成功秘訣:推銷的兩大秘訣是“問”和“聽”。為了把握機會,儘量學習到這位高手的投資經驗,於是我趁吃飯休息時間整理了近百個問題,通過問答交流的形式,學到這個美國投資高手非常多的寶貴經驗,對我非常有啟發。如果沒有機會,就要多看成功的投資者、大師們書籍和聽講座,參加高水準的學習班,多和高水準的投資高手相互交流。

3. 研究成功的投資者、大師如何掌握運用這些投資技術。
在學習了成功的投資者、大師的經驗後,就要將這些經驗轉換為自己的東西,這個就需要刻苦訓練。“無行則無知”,投資者只有通過一次一次不停的重複,在模擬和實戰中訓練,在模擬和實戰中掌握這些投資技術,逐步將這些投資技術養成自己穩定的投資習慣。筆者的妹妹曾是廣州市羽毛球隊的陪練,我向她請教運動員是如何訓練的,她告訴我說:“你將每個擊球動作都重複練習10萬次,就能在比賽中打好了。”投資成功就是簡單、賺錢的事情重複做。

4. 學習成功的投資者、大師如何認識自己。
在研究這些成功的投資者、大師的經驗的時候,很多投資者都忽略了一個很關鍵的要素,在這麼多的前輩的經驗中,如何認識投資者自己,然後使用適合投資者自己的分析技術。很多投資大師在他們的書籍、文獻中都沒有很明確的提到這個觀點,但是都有詳細的論述,這只能靠投資者自己去提煉。短線高手舒華茲,在他獲得了期貨比賽冠軍後,參加了年度操盤手的晚宴,非常羡慕在市場中翻雲覆雨的米高·馬加斯和他的學生布魯士·高富拿,他們操作基金的成績輝煌,以及他們搭乘私人直升飛機來參加晚宴的氣派。於是舒華茲也成立了一個8000萬的投資基金。但是由於舒華茲的操作風格是短線,對於接近上億的基金來說,是不可能進行短線操作的,導致他在操作中把盈利的交易很快平倉,但是虧損的交易就保留了下來,違反了市場贏家的“鐵率”。出現了他自己55個月以來的第一次虧損,並且把自己的身體搞垮到要住院。在深刻認識到自己的投資風格後,舒華茲果斷地結束了投資基金,重新回到自己短線操作的風格,一路保持每年獲利數百萬美元。

在學習的過程中,投資者除了要不斷地吸取前輩們的經驗,還要學習前輩們是如何認識自己的,通過認識自己的與眾不同,發掘自己的潛能,並發揮這些潛能,跟隨市場方向,和市場保持一致,在市場和自己中找到平衡點,達到“人市合一”的境界。

“世界上沒有最好的,只有適合你的才是最好的。”只有認識到這點,才能在學習中把握方向,充分的發揮投資者自己的長處。中國改革開放的總設計師鄧小平為我國設計的建設有中國特色的社會主義道路,帶領我國走向一個新的歷史臺階,取得了令世界矚目的輝煌。

投資者要想快速成功最關鍵是想盡一切辦法和投資大師、投資高手面對面的學習,這樣的效果比只是看書的速度要快幾萬倍,這也是為什麼有人成功的快,有人成功的慢最主要的原因。

思考練習:
1. 你有沒有跟隨過投資大師、高手的學習過?是沒有機會還是沒有這種方法?
2. 如何去學習成功的大師們的經驗,分為哪4個方面?
3. 成功的投資者、大師的投資成功的有哪些共性?
4. 你要投資成功需要學習這些投資技術?請寫下3項以上。
5. 掌握運用這些投資技術需要 用什麼方法?
6. 華爾街短線高手舒華茲為什麼結束了投資基金?

投資大師、高手是如何學習的?
學習成功的方法很多,可以看書、聽CD、看教學VCD、聽講座、上學習班、親自面對面和投資大師、高手交流等,其中研究成功人士、投資大師的書籍的是最節省、最容易的方法。很多人和我早期一樣,看了很多的書,聽了很多的股評、分析講座都沒有能投資成功,原因出在哪里?

股票長線高手崔偉宏在研究股票時候,非常的認真,對上千百家的上市公司的背景資料做了仔細的研究,並對重點關注的七八百個股票都都建立了卡片式檔案。付出常人所沒有的努力,當然也得到了常人所沒有的回報。

1400元十年時間增值為上億的陶先生,在1995年從股市轉戰進入國債期貨市場。陶先生做的第一個重要的事情就是用了一個月的時間泡在上海圖書館學習和研究,徹底搞清楚了什麼是通脹率、保值儲蓄貼補率、物價指數等與國債期貨有關的基本知識,憑著陶先生這些扎實的基本知識,準確的預測對國債期貨價格起決定性作用的保值儲蓄貼補率,從1994年到1995年7月,連續17個月時間裏26仗全部獲勝,使他的資金進入了第二個黃金增值期資金上升到600多萬。陶先生說:“我是每天讀書看報,研究政策,把國債現券、期券市場弄得滾瓜爛熟,考增值、考數學、靠理性、考科學、考智慧,向市場掙錢。我不會搞人際關係!知識份子,就是靠自己的智慧去闖。”

華爾街傳奇炒家江恩開始在為客戶和自己炒做的時候同樣經歷了新手必然遇到的起起落落,很快他認識到:所有的成功人士——無論是律師、醫生還是科學家,在開始賺錢以前,都對自己特定的職業和追求進行了多年的學習和研究,因此江恩決定花十年的時間研究應用與投資市場的交易法則,並將全部的精力投入到投機這一有利可圖的職業中。

江恩花了9個月的時間泡在紐約的圖書館和大英博物院,沒日沒夜的工作,大量的研究過往的股票、期貨市場的交易記錄和華爾街的大炒家的操作方法,並總結出一套以自然規則為核心的交易方法,在他的分析理論中著重分析了價格和時間的週期性關係。江恩引用聖經中的名言:“已有的,還會有;已做的,複去做。陽光之下沒有新的東西。即使我們會說,看呀,這是新的,它卻早已存在於我們之前的年代。”許多人認為江恩的投資理論和交易方法高深莫測,如圖表分析中的江恩曆法、江恩幾何角、江恩線、江恩回調比率等。江恩認為,只要跟隨固定的規則買賣,任何人都可以在期貨市場獲利,而且得勝的機會比投資股市高。江恩相信股票、期貨市場裏也存在著宇宙中的自然規則。價格運動不是雜亂無章的,而且是可以預測的。
投資者可以看到成功的投資大師並不是天生就這麼神奇就會在市場上獲利的,他們都是投入大量的時間、精力去學習,這些都是讀書、學習的基本方法,但是如何收集書中對讀者投資有幫助的精髓?這就需要讀者首先要掌握學習模仿成功人士的基本思路,按照這個思路學習、看書,就能有效的提高讀書的效率,達到讀書的目的,吸收到成功人士的經驗,同時形成了自己的投資體系。

思考練習:
1. 陶先生用了多長的時間研究什麼經濟指標,幫助他準確預測保值儲蓄貼補率,從1994年到1995年7月,連續17個月時間裏26仗全部獲勝。
2. 華爾街著名炒家江恩用了多長時間研究過往的股票、期貨市場的交易記錄和華爾街的大炒家的操作方法,並總結出一套以什麼為核心的交易方法?
3. 江恩引用聖經中的名言是什麼?
4. 每位的投資大師、高手都是通過學習而成功的,你要準備學習嗎?請制訂你最近一周、一個月、一年學習計畫。

投資成功可以學習嗎?

——你也是投資天才;每個人都是天才

有三個這樣的孩子:
一個孩子4歲才會說話,7歲才會寫字,老師對他的評語是:“反應遲鈍,思維不合邏輯,滿腦子不切實際的幻想。”他曾經還遭遇到退學的命運。
  
一個孩子曾被父親抱怨是白癡,在眾人的眼中,他是毫無前途的學生,藝術學院考了三次還考不進去。他叔叔絕望地說:“孺子不可教也!”
  
一個孩子經常遭到父親的斥責:“你放著正經事不幹,整天只管打獵,捉耗子,將來怎麼辦?”所有教師和長輩都認為他資質平庸,與聰明沾不上邊。
  
這三個孩子分別是愛因斯坦、羅丹和達爾文。
每個人都是天才,我們不能發現它,那是我們還缺少一雙智慧的眼睛和獨特的看法。

投資成功能否學習?
其實在投資市場中能成功的人如果不是只有一個人,他們的成功就是可以克隆的,美國投資大師理查·鄧尼斯憑著借來的400美元從事期貨交易,像變魔術般地變成了兩億多美元。他為了驗證投資成功能否學習,在1983、1984年在美國華爾街做過一個“海龜”的操盤手培訓課程,他的結果說明投資技能是可以學習的,他的學生在市場中成績就完全可以驗證,在4年的訓練、操作中,23名學生有3人退出,其餘20人都有上乘表現,平均每年收益率在l00%左右,而他付給這些學生20%的分紅就達3000-3500萬美元,其中最成功的一名學生,4年下來替理查·鄧尼斯賺了3150萬美元。

從上面的例子證明投資成功是可以學習的,在市場上獲勝,這無關乎聰明才智,全在於投資者的方法、原則和態度。

巴菲特曾經這樣說:“對於一個投資者來說,最重要的素質是他的性格,而非智力。你不必在該行業擁有很高的智商。你需要的是不受公眾好惡左右而能自得其樂的這樣一種氣質,你知道你是對的,這並非是因為其他人所處的地位,而是因為你擁有的事實和推理是正確的。”

1987年在為期四個月美國交易冠軍杯”大賽,創下了利潤率4537.8%的成績的瑞士籍的安得烈·布殊,十一歲時由於貪玩而觸電一度失明近3年,但是給予了他訓練感覺的機會:單憑貨幣的重量判斷幣值,感覺玻璃反射的熱量知道走過一道櫥窗,甚至練就閉目下棋,為他以後培養市場敏感的反應打下了堅實的基礎。雖在大學攻讀多年,他卻認為:一生中最大的浪費便是修讀經濟,學院應該教人如何學習便可以了,每個人都是獨特的,有其自己的個性和需要,所以應該按自己的特點去設計適合自己的投資分析方法。

“股神”巴菲特在童年經常和夥伴在家鄉奧馬哈的家門口記錄國外的車輛的車牌號碼來打發時間。還攤開報紙,計算報紙上每個字母出現的次數。他還經常找來年鑒,讀出一對城市的名字,然後保持這個城市人口的數量。就是這些童年的遊戲,不斷訓練了巴菲特對數字的喜好和敏感,以至後來巴菲特能對華爾街的所有的股票和債券都瞭若指掌,能把每一份的財務報表和企業負債表都能牢記於心。

大家看到以上的故事就知道,成功者、投資大師都不是天生的,只有大家下定決心,現在馬上行動,要成功不是不可能的。“你也是投資天才”。

思考練習:
1. 哪位投資大師在華爾街舉辦過“操盤手學習班”,後來結果如何?
2. 巴菲特為什麼對年報的資料能透徹的研究,對這些數字不厭煩,來源於什麼?
3. 看完本章書,你感覺投資成功大師是靠天才還是靠自己的努力學習?你想投資成功,要學習嗎?

環境——投資成功的首要秘訣
投資成功的首要的秘訣是“環境”。古有“孟母三遷”。比爾.蓋茲如果出生在非洲,連電腦都沒有見過,就算他有230的智商,也不可能成為電腦王國的領袖,不可能成為世界首富。

1/5法則
你的收入水準、投資水準是你平時經常接觸5位元朋友或者投資者的平均數。
百萬富翁和百萬富翁一起
千萬富翁和千萬富翁一起
億萬富翁和億萬富翁一起

那麼自然是:盈利的人和盈利人一起,虧損的人和虧損的人一起,因為他們都是相同的思維方式。乞丐們一起討論的是如何用手就摸出別人給的是1元紙幣還是二元的紙幣。虧損的人經常在一起討論的是市場多麼的不好,莊家是多麼的壞,莊家在資訊、分析工具上多麼有優勢,但是從來沒有研究對手的投資手法後,自己如何去贏錢。

日本首富系山英太郎能夠成功,他自己有一套“利益至上交友法”。在2001年秋天和2002年春天,兩度在全日本經營者舉辦研習會上,開宗明義地表示:“別和窮人交往。”也就是書中所說的“負債”型的朋友。

窮人有兩種。一種是字面上所指的“沒有錢的窮人”,跟這種人交往,只會陷入老是自掏腰包的境地。如果想要存錢,就必須節省這種不必要的花費。想找人一起吃飯、喝酒,找比自己有錢的人作伴當然更為明智。在這個世界上,有些人喜歡身邊圍繞著沒錢的人,享受他們的阿諛奉承。但是窮人只是向錢低頭而已,不論你曾經給過他們多少好處,當你沒錢時,這些人就會忘記你曾經施與的恩惠,兩腳開溜而去。

人際關係本來就是施與受的關係,如果只有施當然只有損失。而另一種窮人不只是沒錢,也缺乏有益於人的資訊和娛樂別人的才能,毫無利他的價值。雖然他說“別和窮人交往”,但如果哪個沒錢的人有值得請客的價值,那麼即使他再窮,也樂意和他交往。尤其是年輕人,他們擁有許多他不知道的資訊,花錢在他們身上絕對不會浪費。他從與他們交遊閒聊中得到的資訊,往往成為生意上的靈感。這些朋友屬於“資產”型朋友。由此看來,為他們花錢其實是很便宜的投資。也就是說,他與別人交往時,經常在瞬間計算著投資效果。

很多投資者問我如何能投資成功,在市場上獲利。我問他們,你所在的證券公司、期貨公司的周圍有賺錢投資者嗎?如果沒有,你就要換地方、換朋友了。
我在認識到這點後,不斷和行業內和其他行業的頂尖人士交流學習,參加了大量的頂尖的講座、學習班,同時大量的收集所有能找到的大師的書籍不斷研究他們的思維模式,學費交了6位數,每個月買書的費用3000元,每天用5-8個小時的看相關的影碟、CD、書籍,隨身帶著書和MP3,不停轟炸我的腦袋。後來看到李陽“瘋狂英語”的學習方法,發現都是一樣的方法。
在我的電腦左邊是比爾.蓋茲和巴菲特的照片,右邊是索羅斯,前面是喬丹。旁邊是羅傑斯、系山英太郎,並且在我手機上的待機螢幕也換了專門製作的比爾.蓋茲和巴菲特的合照,用這些世界第一的名人時刻提醒自己,回憶他們的成功秘訣和經歷,成為我追趕的目標,不斷提醒自己,激勵自己。並且不放過任何一個向成功者學習機會!

在不到兩個月時間,我身邊的朋友感覺我好像換了一個人似的。整個思維模式發生很大的轉變,投資水準也突飛猛進。

快速達到投資成功的捷徑——好教練
世界上99%的成功者都有教練、老師,有一個好的教練,好的方法,就能加快成功的步伐。

1999年美國NBA芝加哥公牛隊的教練傑克遜、天才球員喬丹都退役。這時湖人隊有三個頂級的球員,但是他們老是想比較誰是第一,結果球隊成績一直不理想。

湖人隊的老闆認識到了教練的重要性,用NBA的最高年薪600萬美元(當年在公牛隊的年薪400萬美元)聘請教練傑克遜出山。湖人隊在2000年當年就獲得了NBA總冠軍,2001、2002年也連續獲得了NBA總冠軍。教練傑克遜的年薪也遞增到800萬美元。傑克遜也成為了兩次以球員身份、9次以教練身份取得NBA總冠軍的第一人。

看看,這裏是同一樣的球員,這些頂尖的球員由於沒有頂級的教練,一直都不能成功。但是當聘請高水準的教練,獲得過6次NBA總冠軍的教練就可以很快就帶出冠軍的隊伍。所以除了自己有能力之外,好的教練的作用必不可少。有一個好的教練,好的方法,就能加快成功的步伐,善於學習別人的成功經驗。

世界上99%的成功者都有教練、老師。美國著名短線操盤手馬丁·舒華茲在他經過10年的分析師生活,下決心一定要突破時,他和太太做了一份成功的目標和計畫,其中就包括要找一位老師。
在一次交易中,舒華茲頭腦發昏,不斷地在迎頭作空了250手SP500指數期貨,一直到漲停,浮動虧損100萬美元,這是他操盤歷史以來最大的虧損。當晚他打電話給他的老師鮑伯,請教他如何處理,老師鮑伯說:“舒華茲,馬上止損,只有你回到沒有持倉的中立狀態,你才會把事情看得清楚。你不可能比市場更精明,接受現實吧。留得青山在,不怕沒柴燒。” 舒華茲經過一整晚的煎熬,接受了老師的意見,果斷止損,重新操作,並在當月彌補了虧損。

著名華人網球明星張德培青年時代和桑普拉斯、阿加西、科威爾都是同一網球教練——尼克,尼克曾經帶出了桑普拉斯、阿加西、威廉姆斯姐妹和庫爾尼科娃等世界知名球星。張德培依靠他頑強的意志和拼搏精神,打敗他的幾位師兄獲得了世界網球青年冠軍。成年後桑普拉斯、阿加西、科威爾都先後多次獲得了世界網球排名第一。但是張德培最高的排名也是世界第二,原因在什麼地方?桑普拉斯、阿加西、科威爾後來都聘請了最頂尖教練,像桑普拉斯聘請了著名的發球教練,他的發球得分率也是最高的。而張德培卻是聘請了沒有職業網球經驗的哥哥和父親做教練,結果可想而知。同樣的素質但是不同的教練、老師產生了不同效果。

美國投資大師理查·鄧尼斯培訓的“海龜幫”。經我仔細研究過“海龜幫”的教材,交易信號的方法都是以突破、趨勢型為主,最關鍵核心部分是做好資金管理,適當控制買賣單量。在後面的書籍將和投資者一起分享。

你說教練重不重要?真的很重要噢。全世界公認公牛隊得冠軍是因為傑克遜,湖人隊得冠軍是因為傑克遜。他評為全世界最傑出的教練。其他教練也是教練啊,所以你要找一個真正能幫你成功的教練,有教練也不一定會成功,你一定要找對教練。

我在小學參加了水球隊,有水球隊的教練,在中學進入了校田徑隊,有田徑隊的教練,1986年學習橋牌有當時是廣州男隊的隊長作我的教練,在1988年獲得廣州選拔賽第一名代表廣州參加1989年2月北京舉行的首屆全國青年橋牌賽,1987年學習吉他,有吉他教練,跟著當時省港澳吉他大賽的3位冠軍等學習吉他,後來還跟了他們三位冠軍的老師學習,半夜練琴被人潑水。2年後,1989年我參加廣州吉他比賽,大家猜猜我得了第幾名?1989年8月20歲獲得廣州市吉他大賽冠軍,第一名。
1994年遇到我第一位投資教練美國八大期貨大師之一的斯丹利·克羅,後來用了一年多的時間鑽研,經歷了許多的挫折,在28歲終於踏入了贏家行列。

近年又跟隨美國、港臺等多位國內外的投資高手學習、交流。我現在有這些的成就都非常感謝這些教導過我的這些老師、教練,如果你想在短時間內的成功,就必須學習頂尖人士、行業第一的成功經驗和學習的方法,因為他們都需要一個好教練。

下面是介紹你需要教練的理由、如何找好的教練以及如何與教練溝通相處:

1. 首先寫下你需要教練的理由。只有當你充分的明確了需要教練的原因之後,你才有真正需要教練的動力,這樣才能有目的、有方向的選擇你需要的教練。否則找錯了教練,錯誤發生在起跑線,就像一路向西跑永遠不能看到日出,看到的只是垂暮的夕陽。

2. 教練的選擇。首先是要比你成功的人,比你高的級別越多越好,沒有過成功經驗的人是不可能成為你的教練,因為他自己都不知道如何成功,沒有品嘗過成功的辛酸苦辣,他又如何教導你成功。

3. 表現你的企圖心。好的教練能教出好的學生,好的教練也是需要選擇學生的,因為他沒有太多的時間去教所有都想來的學生,他只是選擇有天分的、夠格的、有強烈的成功企圖心、有持久熱情的學生。在學習前和過程中教練會測試你的資質,會刻意給你施加壓力,這個時候就需要表現你自己的資格、能力、毅力、熱情和耐性,否則教練怎麼會浪費他寶貴的時間去教一個半途而廢的學生。

4. 完全的信任。一旦選擇了教練,首先你要考慮是否信任他,否則你就不要找這個教練了。一旦你選擇你的教練,接受他的教導,就必須完全的信任,這樣你才能全身心的投入學習中,接受教練的思維方式,才能真正學到教練的真本領,否則浪費雙方的金錢和時間。

5. 與教練保持合作關係。世界首富比爾·蓋茲,他只是擁有微軟公司18%的股份,就擁有800億美元的財富。這個道理是:“與其你擁有100%的100萬,不如擁有20%的1000萬。”無論你和教練的私人關係多麼好,如果能通過合作關係,對你自己和教練都一件非常好的事情,你的事業持久發展有很大的助。

6. 教練的思考方式。在剛開始學習的時候,學生總是感覺教練的思想怪怪的,這是你需要沒有懷疑的心態去傾聽,相信教練的想法和行動,因為就是這些一般人感覺怪怪的和感覺沒有邏輯的思維,使他們成為市場中3%的成功者,市場中只有3%的成功者,他們的思維模式就是和一般的常人不一樣,

7. 贏得教練的心,模仿的同時逐漸形成自己的風格。人類學習的過程就是模仿的過程,在學習的過程中要像海綿一樣放鬆自己,儘量去吸收教練的精華,只有尋找和結合自己個性的風格才能成為成功者。

8. 尊重教練,不看教練的缺點。將注意力焦點放在教練的突出優勢上,而不是他的缺點。否則你只能學到他的缺點不是令教練成功的優點,畢竟你是向他學習,而不是來做裁判,因為教練能把你訓練成功就足夠了。你要記住,你的目的是來學習的,而不是來證明你自己的觀點是正確的。

9. 馬上行動反應教練佈置的作業、資訊。很多人有這樣的經歷,發個電子郵件、短信的重要消息,但是不知道對方有沒有收到,是你感覺不知道對方收到沒有,心情很著急。十個想法不如一個行動,只有大量的行動才能導致成功。對教練的佈置的作業、工作要以最快的速度回復,給教練增加印象,對你學習產生很大的幫助!

10. 回饋教練、回饋社會、回饋大眾,用成功來報答。任何一個成功人都是一個感恩的心,任何一個好的教練都是一個喜歡幫助別人的人,教練他自己就是遇到一個樂於幫人的教練,才能得到現在的成功,這樣形成了一個相互幫助,良性迴圈的環境,才能使更多人走向成功。最好的學生也是最好的教練,你不必等到自己完美後才去教導學生,你可以用你自己的成功和幫助別人成功來回報你的教練。

我最初幾年在通過看書學習,水準逐步的提高,進入盈家行列,水準上升出現了瓶頸,自己不斷的分析,如何去突破這個瓶頸,又再次去買書.看書,還是感覺水準提高不明顯,我在想,重復舊的行為,只能得到舊的結果,於是我想到應該換一個角度去突破。

我嘗試去請教練、請老師,我想這個方法在提高我投資水準上是有效的,於是花了大量的金錢、時間去和投資高手學習,和他們交流,有省內的、省外的、國內、國外的,發現看書只能領悟到30%,但是通過面對面的學習和交流,領悟迅速提高了幾倍,並且從不同的角度印證了自己平時模糊的想法。這些收穫是很難從書中體會到的。

思考練習:
1. 華爾街短線操盤手舒華茲在浮動虧損100萬美元,通過什麼放過將自己在不理智的虧損中拉出來?
2. 桑普拉斯、阿加西、科威爾都先後多次獲得了世界網球排名第一。但是張德培為什麼一直最高的排名只是世界第二?
3. 有一個好的教練,好的方法,就能加快成功的步伐,你想快些投資成功還是想慢些投資成功?
4. 寫下你需要教練的理由?
5. 教練、老師有這麼好的作用,你想選擇誰做你的投資教練?請列出他們的名字。
6. 快速成功的四大方法:
a. 學習:學習成功者
b. 偷師:給成功者打工
c. 合作:與成功者合作
d. 請成功者幫你打工

Monday, March 15, 2010

5 Great Tips to Handle Stress

Stress has always been a part of our lives. In this hectic time, people lead an increasingly stressful life. Experts state that a little stress can be good; it keeps you sharp and ready to move forward, and is sometimes vital for achieving optimum performance. However, medical research has determined that prolonged stress is very bad for the body, and can block the body's natural ability to repair, regenerate and protect itself. Over 90% of disease is caused by stress. Stress is both a physical and psychological response. It can lead to chronic disease, obesity, insomnia, deteriorating relationships, depression, and more.

Stress is such a powerful and harmful force that it is vital that you learn effective stress management techniques to live a successful, happy, and healthy life. We must remember that we will always come across inevitable factors that cause pressure and anxiety on us. What we do not know is that it is not really the problems that are difficult to deal with, but our attitude towards them. So basically, the cause of stress is your attitude toward these things. What, then, is an effective way to deal with stressors?

Below are 5 great tips to handle stress.

1.Identify what makes you stressful and uneasy. Making a list of your stressful experiences is useful. Immediately deal with the issues that you can change, for instance waking up earlier for work in the morning, not leaving things till the last minute, and delegating tasks in case you are taking responsibility for everything. Forget about the issues that you cannot influence like being stuck in a traffic jam or not getting into the elevator because there is no room for you.

2.Calm down. A few minutes break would do you good. Wash your face, breath slowly and deeply, and notice if there is tension in any part of your body and release it. You can also listen to relaxing music, or call a friend. Releasing your inner feelings to a friend is healthy option.

3.It will pass and it will be over before you know it. Remind yourself that the stressful event will end sooner or later can make you see the positive sides of things. At the same time, calm down your emotions and think of what is the best thing to do rather than take your energy away from what needs to be done.

4.Know yourself. Ask yourself: What triggers your anxiety? If for example it is your job, then maybe it's time for you to reconsider whether it would be best to find a less stressful job. You can also make your job more tolerable by allowing yourself to get that needed vacation or leave.

5.Learn to use your relaxation response. Just as we all have within us the stress response, we also have an opposite response, which is the relaxation response. A person should elicit that on a regular basis. The relaxation response involves two steps. Repetition, the repetition can be a word, a sound, an expression, or a repetitive movement. The second step is to ignore other thoughts that come to your mind while you're doing the repetition, and come back to the repetition. The technique should be used once or twice a day for about 15 minutes. Sit quietly and choose a suitable repetition, like a prayer, the sound Om, or the word love, or calm. Or you can do a repetitive exercise, for instance yoga, jogging, Reiki. Additional repetitive activities are knitting or handicraft. When you incorporate this into your everyday life, you become calmer and better able to handle the stressors. Practice makes perfect and the more you practice relax your mind, the easier it gets.

The true causes of stress are not the problems or negative experiences that you encounter in your life; but your attitude toward them. So, the trick is to change your attitude and to develop a relaxed state, because you cannot be stressed and relaxed at the same time. It is important to understand that what we focus on, we energize. The more you continue to think about the factors that cause your stress, the more energy you give it. So it is vital to let go and focus on relaxation instead. Consequently, you're less likely to be upset by a stressor, and thus less likely to have its harmful effect occur. Eventually, it is your choice. You could either continue to react in the same stressful way, or you could choose to improve your life by changing your attitude and becoming relaxed. There's no other way around it.

Best stress relievers

The more successful one is, the more stressful one's life becomes. Every new promotion means added responsibility and added stress. The challenge is how to handle that stress.

"Every successful person has learned to handle stress well," says Dr. Woodson Merrell, of Beth Israel Hospital in New York City. "It's those with a positive outlook on stressful situations who decrease their risk of heart disease, whereas those with increased rage from stress have increased risk of heart disease."

Unless one is a newborn infant or a Buddhist monk, to greater or lesser degrees one has stress in one's life. In school, it is the stress of a big test, pimples and finding a prom date. In college, it's about the big test, pimples, prom dates and getting a decent job after graduation. And while at the time it all seems very stressful, one finds out later that they were only on a nodding acquaintance with stress. It isn't until you get a job, start earning your own way and, eventually, supporting a family and moving up the career ladder, that you not only get to know stress, but stress moves right in, takes your favorite chair and even raids your refrigerator in the middle of the night.

Yet most people, whether they realize it or not, need a certain amount of stress. In the right amount, it can give people an edge. Keep them sharp, awake, alert. After all, imagine a stress-free life. Rocking in a hammock somewhere, feeling the ocean breeze waft over you as you sip a fruity rum drink. Sounds pretty good, right? Maybe. Imagine living like that all the time. Being that laid-back will not help you succeed, pay your kid's college tuition, get you that corner office or that black Porsche 911 you've always wanted.

Conversely, living in a constant state of aggravation isn't such a hot idea either. Constant stress produces high levels of cortisol, which has been shown to impair cognitive functioning and weaken the immune system. Not only will it have a negative effect on one's health, but it can also make one a real jerk. What's the point in living a permanently stressed-out, albeit successful, life, if one drives away friends and loved ones, and dies of a heart attack at an early age?

The ideal, then, is to have just enough stress that one stays focused; but to also have an outlet that can regulate it and keep it from overtaking one's life. The problem is that many so-called stress reducers can do more harm than good — especially if, like stress, they are not taken in moderate amounts.

Avoid drinking, smoking
One of the most common and easiest stress relievers is alcohol. While many gourmets happily choose a vintage Bordeaux to accompany a fine meal, or a wedding may call for a glass or two of champagne, most people consume alcohol after work either as a way to unwind or as a social lubricant. Excessive consumption, of course, can lead to health and, in many cases, domestic problems. Similarly, to many people regardless of age or income, legal and illegal drugs as well as cigarettes are an all too prevalent and dangerous way of dealing with stress in the short term.

Drinking and smoking to excess is not the only potentially harmful way of coping with stress. Many people also find relief in over-eating, trying to numb their anxiety with too much ice cream or smother it in cheese sauce.

That is not to say that the occasional drink is bad for you, nor is the odd cigar or slab of chocolate cake. Again, it is a question of moderation. If, at the end of a long day, a glass of decent Scotch or a good meal restores your equilibrium, go for it.

But there are more effective and more healthy methods for combating stress. One of the best ways is through meditation. Merrell suggests that his clients take two minutes to meditate by concentrating only on a single word during the most stressful time of the day — the morning, which, not coincidentally, happens to be the same time of day that has the highest incidence of heart attacks.

"When you wake up, you're trying to solve the stresses of the dream stage and then subconsciously being bombarded with real worry," he says. That's why it's important to meditate. When you're literally sitting there with no conscious thought it's a powerful, peaceful state to be in, because it doesn't happen during the day naturally."

Other doctors agree that meditation is a great way to combat daily stress, but also say learning any type of technique that relaxes the body and mind will reduce worry — which in the end, is the goal: learning to cope with stress by learning to manage the mind.

"One of the more common techniques I suggest is progressive relaxation," says Dr. Ernesto Randolfi, who runs a private business in stress-health promotion in Billings, Mont. "It involves contracting and relaxing muscles around your body so that people develop the ability to relax at will. It's a strategy that takes a lot of learning."

11 Easy Ways to Handle Stress

One of the most singificant problems human beings face as a general population is how to handle stress. As a life & career expert, and an acclaimed advice columnist, I have compiled eleven of the most significant ways that you can reduce stress in your life. You may not always be able to make stress dissappear, but you can manage it with some very simple techniques.

1. Talk! Don't hold all your feelings within! Discuss your stressful feelings with someone you trust who will listen without being judgmental or pressuring you to their own point of view. Even if you can't change the immediate situation, talking about it helps alleviate some of the tension you may be feeling. Supplement the verbalizing with something physical: write it out, exercise or hit a pillow.

2. ACT! Be willing to take risk and make change, no matter how small. Try to change the stressful situation, or at least some part of it. Moving forward in small ways helps you feel empowered and in control. Put one foot in front of the other to move in a positive direction. Soon, the stress will lessen.

3. LISTEN TO YOUR BODY! If you learn about how your body reacts to stress, you can also learn how to counter that stress. Learn to listen to your body's signals and find ways to reduce your stress, even if it's just "taking five" to clear your mind. Relaxation exercises (E.g. Yoga, meditation, physical exercise) help, too.

4. BE IN CHARGE! Discover what you need to feel good about yourself and get your needs met. Another way to reduce your stress is to find an interest, hobby or activity where you feel in charge and call the shots. If you really feel out of control, don't stay silent and alone! Seek guidance from someone who is qualified to help you get through the obstacles, and move forward again. If you can't find someone qualified in your neighborhood or you don't feel as though you can talk to someone "in person" try a qualified internet counselor. If you would like to talk to ME (Advice Sister Alison) you can find information at http://www.advicesisters.net/getpersonaladvice3.html

5. DON'T OVERWHELM YOURSELF: If you are stressed and overwhelmed, perhaps you are trying to handle too much. Rid yourself of extra duties that aren't necessary or important. Learn how to delegate and how to say "no" without feeling guilty. Ask for help if you need it.

6. GET AWAY: Sometimes a change, however small, can do wonders for your spirit. Forget it all for a while--escape! Go somewhere new for a few hours, or a few days if you can afford to. If not, it may be helpful just to "get away" to a warm bath for a little while! A good article on how to create an easy spa experience at home is at: http://www.advicesisters.net/WWarchives/wwarcspa3.html

7. PRIORITIZE: You may not be able to avoid all the responsibilities obligations you currently have, but you can learn how to complete them without resentment and consciously choose how you will handle them.

8. EXTEND YOURSELF: Make your own life better by making someone else's life better. Give of yourself. Volunteer! You will feel empowered, positive, important...and you will be! Visit http://www.volunteermatch.com and choose an organization you believe in!


9. MAKE SUCCESS HAPPEN! If you can't change the world, change yourself! Learn how to love yourself as you are, while you work towards your goals. Then, make a commitment to yourself to start improving the things about yourself and your life that (you believe) need it. Instead of immediate, dramatic change, learn to enjoy the journey of lifelong self-improvement. You are always a work in progress. For life & career advice, visit ASK ALISON - Managing Your Life & Career at: http://www.metrotribe.org/askalison.html for love and relationship advice, visit THE ADVICE SISTERS Relationship Tools For Winners Web Site http://www.advicesisters.net/

10. SOCIALIZE: Spend time with family and friends for love and support. Don't be afraid to enjoy yourself! Appreciate friendship and let others know you care about them, too. Love may not conquer all, but it's a great start!

11. LEARN HOW TO BE HAPPY: One thing all of life's winners have in common is a sense of well-being, a positive attitude and realistic goals. Focus on the good things about yourself, and in your life. Nobody's perfect. Learn to enjoy the "little things" that make you happy. Count your blessings. Every day, write down on a slip of paper one thing you are grateful for, even if it's just a sunny day, a friend's phone call, your cat's happy purr. Put this "blessing" in a jar along with a dollar or more. Do this for one month. At the end of the month read all those slips of paper and you will realize that life is better than you think! Use the money to do something really special for yourself, or donate it to charity.

LEARNING TO HANDLE STRESS

Everybody experiences stress. A certain amount is even good for you. Too much stress can damage your physical, emotional, and mental health. Since it is not always possible to prevent stress, we all need to learn how to reduce it. Choose among the following techniques what you think will work best for you. Make them part of your everyday life.

1. PREVENT IT. How much stress do you cause just by putting unnecessary pressure on yourself? Do you over react to little things that annoy you? Every time you let anger or frustration take control, it drains away good energy and sidetracks you from more important things. Obviously, you can't always control what goes on around you, but you can control how you respond. Try a little more patience next time you get caught in traffic and you'll avoid unnecessary stress.

2. SET GOALS. Some people drift through life going from crisis to crisis letting stress build up. If you set goals, you can take better control of your life. Think where you'd like to be in 1 year or 5 years. Be realistic by starting with small, daily goals, then build up from there. Re-evaluate your goals from time to time and be prepared to adjust them as changes occur in your life.

3. ESTABLISH PRIORITIES. Do you often feel rushed because "there's no time"? Why not regulate the pace of your life? Plan ahead. Make a list of tasks in order of priority. Concentrate on what's really important to you and drop those things that only waste your energy.

4. TAKE TIME OUT. Spend a few minutes alone each day to break the routine. This helps ease stress and gives you a better perspective of what's around you. Set aside time during the week for recreation, hobbies, or exercise. Regular exercise is an excellent way to reduce stress. Physical fitness gives you a feeling of well-being by relieving tension and increasing productivity.

5. HAVE FAITH. Peace of mind comes to those who trust in God's power to lessen life's burdens through prayer.

6. THINK POSITIVELY. Having a positive attitude will help you assert yourself and feel more in control. You waste energy if you constantly criticize yourself or set unrealistic goals. Negative thoughts generally produce negative results. Instead of saying, "I can't," practice saying, "I can." You'll be surprised how much more you can accomplish.

7. HAVE A SENSE OF HUMOR. Laughter can be one of the best medicines for stress. Being able to laugh at yourself and the world can break tension and give you some relief from stress.

8. COMMUNICATE. Suffering in silence only increases the stress you build up inside. Talk over your feelings and concerns with your family, a friend, counselor, preacher, or health professional. "Thinking out loud" like this not only relieves stress, but may also shed new light on your problems. Learn to listen and consider suggestions with an open mind.

9. MAKE DECISIONS. Most people have no idea how much stress they create for themselves by resisting change. They wait, hoping a situation will go back to the way it was. Why wait when you have choices and could make a decision? When it's time to change old habits and move forward, make your own change for the better.

10. GET SUPPORT. Do you sometimes find problems too personal to discuss? Or feel they may be too much of a burden on others? Find a support group in your community. Remember, you're not alone. Other people with similar problems understand what you're going through without the need for lengthy explanations. They share your concerns and they want to learn how to cope with stress, too.

Citicorp May Earn $20 Billion by End-2012: Report

Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit is set to forecast returns of 1.25 percent a year or more on the bank's main assets within a few years, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Pandit, set to speak at a conference on Thursday, will not give a specific profit target for Citicorp, the FT reported.

Pandit is expected to focus the market's attention on the performance of the Citicorp unit, which had more than $1 billion of assets at the end of December, out of Citigroup's total $1.86 billion.

If Citicorp's assets grow by about 5 percent a year, as some executives expect, the unit could earn roughly $20 billion by the end of 2012, a big increase from current levels, the FT reported.

Citigroup's performance depends not only on Citicorp, where it houses its main assets, but also on Citi Holdings, which has businesses and assets it is looking to shed.

Analysts have struggled to predict Citi Holdings' performance, which depends on the quality of its assets and the global economy.

But in recent days, investors have become much more hopeful about Citigroup's prospects — the company's shares have risen 11 percent since Monday's close.

Shares of other hard-hit U.S. financial companies, including insurer American International Group, have also rallied.

The U.S. government, which owns more than a quarter of Citigroup's outstanding shares, is eligible to start selling portions of its stake in the middle of next week.

The government will sell its shares only if it can do so at a profit. Citigroup's shares closed at $3.96 on Wednesday. Taxpayers bought shares of the third-largest U.S. bank at $3.25 each. Citigroup spokesman Jon Diat was not immediately available for comment.

Dyspepsia

Dyspepsia (from the Greek "δυς-" (Dys-) and "πέψη" (Pepse)), known as upset stomach or indigestion, meaning hard or difficult digestion, is a medical condition characterized by chronic or recurrent pain in the upper abdomen, upper abdominal fullness and feeling full earlier than expected when eating. It can be accompanied by bloating, belching, nausea or heartburn. Dyspepsia is a common problem, and is frequently due to gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) or gastritis, but in a small minority may be the first symptom of peptic ulcer disease (an ulcer of the stomach or duodenum) and occasionally cancer. Hence, unexplained newly-onset dyspepsia in people over 55 or the presence of other alarm symptoms may require further investigations.

Signs and symptoms
The characteristic symptoms of dyspepsia are upper abdominal pain, bloating, fullness and tenderness on palpation. Pain worsened by exertion and associated with nausea and perspiration may also indicate angina.

Occasionally dyspeptic symptoms are caused by medication, such as calcium antagonists (used for angina or high blood pressure), nitrates (used for angina), theophylline (used for chronic lung disease), bisphosphonates, corticosteroids and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs, used as painkillers).

The presence of gastrointestinal bleeding (vomit containing blood), difficulty swallowing, anorexia (loss of appetite), unintentional weight loss, abdominal swelling and persistent vomiting are suggestive of peptic ulcer disease or malignancy, and would necessitate urgent investigations.

Diagnosis
People under 55 years, without alarm symptoms, can be treated without investigation. People over 55 years with recent onset dyspepsia or those with alarm symptoms should be urgently investigated by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. This will rule out peptic ulcer disease, medication-related ulceration, malignancy and other rarer causes.

People under the age of 55 years with no alarm features do not need endoscopy but are considered for investigation for peptic ulcer disease caused by Helicobacter pylori infection. Investigation for H.pylori infection is usually performed when there is a moderate to high prevalence of this infection in the local community or the person with dyspepsia has other risk factors for H. pylori infection, related for example to ethnicity or immigration from a high-prevalence area. If infection is confirmed it can usually be eradicated by medication.

Medication-related dyspepsia is usually related to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and can be complicated by bleeding or ulceration with perforation of stomach wall.

Treatment
Functional and undifferentiated dyspepsia have similar treatments. Decisions around the use of drug therapy are difficult because trials included heartburn in the definition of dyspepsia. This led to the results favoring proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), which are effective for the treatment of heartburn.

Traditional therapies used for this diagnosis include lifestyle modification, antacids, H2-receptor antagonists (H2-RAs), prokinetic agents, and antiflatulents. It has been noted that one of the most frustrating aspects of treating functional dyspepsia is that these traditional agents have been shown to have little or no efficacy.

Antacids and sucralfate were found to be no better than placebo in a literature review. H2-RAs have been shown to have marked benefit in poor quality trials (30% relative risk reduction), but only a marginal benefit in good quality trials. Prokinetic agents would empirically seem to work well since delayed gastric emptying is considered a major pathophysiological mechanism in functional dyspepsia. They have been shown in a meta-analysis to produce a relative risk reduction of up to 50%, but the studies evaluated to come to this conclusion used the drug cisapride which has since been removed from the market (now only available as an investigational agent due to serious adverse events such as torsades, and publication bias has been cited as a potential partial explanation for such a high benefit. Modern prokinetic agents such as metoclopramide, erythromycin and tegaserod have little or no established efficacy and often result in substantial side effects. Simethicone has been found to be of some value, as one trial suggests potential benefit over placebo and another shows equivalence with cisapride.So, with the somewhat recent advent of the proton pump inhibitor (PPI) class of medications, the question of whether these new agents are superior to traditional therapy has arisen.

A 2004 meta-analysis, pooling data from three double-blind placebo-controlled studies, found the multiple herbal extract Iberogast to be significantly more effective than placebo (p value = .001) at treating patients with functional dyspepsia through the targeting of multiple dyspeptic pathologies. This German-made phytopharmaceutical was found to be equivalent to cisapride and significantly superior to metoclopramide at reducing the symptoms of functional dyspepsia over a four week period. Retrospective surveillance of 40,961 children (12 years and under) found no serious side-effects.

Currently, PPIs are, depending on the specific drug, FDA indicated for erosive esophagitis, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), Zollinger-Ellison syndrome, eradication of H. pylori, duodenal and gastric ulcers, and NSAID-induced ulcer healing and prevention, but not functional dyspepsia. There are, however, evidence-based guidelines and literature that evaluate the use of PPIs for this indication. A helpful chart summarizing the major trials is available from the functional dyspepsia guidelines published in the World Journal of Gastroenterology in 2006.

The CADET study was the first to compare a PPI (omeprazole 20mg daily) to both an H2-RA (ranitidine 150mg BID) as well as a prokinetic agent (cisapride 20mg BID) alongside placebo. The study evaluated these agents in patients at 4 weeks and 6 months and noted that omeprazole had a significantly better response at 6 months (31%) than cisapride (13%) or placebo (14%) (p = .001) while it was just above the cutoff for being statistically significantly better than ranitidine (21%) (p = .053). Omeprazole also showed a significant increase in quality of life scores over the other agents and placebo in all but one category measured (p = .01 to .05).

The ENCORE study, which was a follow-up of patients from the OPERA study, showed responders to omeprazole therapy had fewer clinic visits than non-responders (1.5 vs 2.0) over a three month period (p < .001).

How Citigroup, CEO Pandit Turned Themselves Around

Just a year after being relegated to the pile of near-dead banks crushed by the credit crisis, Citigroup is back.

Investors both big and small have been taking massive stakes of Citi's shares that at this time in 2009 were teetering around the $1 mark.

The venture to the brink of penny-stock territory was a torturous one, but that all seems to have changed as Citi's top officials are assuring investors that a return to profitability is on the horizon.

The company's return from its seemingly destined march to the graveyard has coincided with the rising star of embattered CEO Vikram Pandit.

"For the most part, Citi's done a good job of improving its balance sheet and its capital position," said David Konrad, banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. "It's going to be a long, long road there, but he's actually got a little bit of momentum on his side now."

Citi's stock (NYSE:C - News), though off a bit in Friday trading, has risen about 12 percent this week, 23 percent this year and 157 percent in the 12 months since it hit an intraday low of 97 cents.

Market interest has been enormous. The stock traded at an average volume of 1.2 billion shares in the previous three trading sessions, nearly three times its normal level.

There are multiple reasons for why the stock has become so popular.

Investors are beginning to warm to financials in general as concerns have waned over the effect that increased government regulation would have on trading activity.

In Citi's case, that interest has increased as Pandit and other company officials talked up the company's position-and an offering of preferred shares earlier this week came in "multiple times oversubscribed," as one analyst put it.

That enthusiasm in turn has come from a general belief that Citi has been efficient in shedding the higher-risk and lower-performing entities that got it in so much trouble in the first place. Of course, billions in government aid hasn't hurt, either-the Treasury Department still holds a 27 percent stake in Citi that it is seeking to unwind.

Citi was among the most high-profile victims of the subprime mortgage collapse, losing billions when the bets it made on securities underwriting risky loans collapsed.

"You can pretty much forget about the past," Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist at YCMN Advisors, said. "Citigroup for all practical purposes is going to be a brand new company and it has to be assessed as a brand new company. What they did in the past doesn't exist anymore."

Central to Pandit's strategy to reorganize the group into a more stable company was isolating the toxic assets that remained on Citi's $1.3 trillion balance sheet.

The company has been broken into two parents that encompass the still-sprawling Citi empire: Citicorp, home of the new and improved Citi; and Citi Holdings, where the company's rancid assets have gone to die.

Citi also shed 51 percent of its position in Smith Barney to Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS); its German retail bank, Japanese holdings and Commercial Credit unit and is planning to spin off life insurer Primerica through an initial public offering.

Pandit had come under withering criticism for presiding over an essentially unmanageable financial superstore that had lost its vision, but that sentiment has shifted.

"We've asked ourselves, are we in the client business or not?" Pandit said in a late-January interview with CNBC. "If we are in the client business-which we are-then do these businesses belong with us or not? If they don't then we've sold them. We've been moving in that direction and we plan to keep going that way."

Analysts have taken note and are giving Citi generally positive marks and maintaining a solid outlook for the company.

While KBW's Konrad has a $3.75 target for the stock and Goldman Sachs is neutral with a $3.50 target, JPMorgan is overweight Citi at $5.50 and Barclays Capital analyst Jason Goldberg recently said he is overweight Citi with a $5 target.

Rochdale Securities analyst Dick Bove drew more attention to Citi earlier this week in a CNBC interview during which he praised the company as a long-term investment after some difficulties ahead.

Bove's view came in part because of momentum in banks generally as the industry recovers from the 2007-08 collapse of the financial system.

"If we go out two-three years...my view is that the dividend payout ratios in banks are going to go back up to 40 percent, and if people were to buy these banks at the present time, they're looking at extraordinarily high yields based on where the dividends could be, say, in 2013," he said.

In the near term a variety of factors pose threats, including a remaining level of uncertainty about the economy and geopolitical problems. JPMorgan also cited regulatory risks, worse credit losses than expected and the unpredictability of fixed-income markets.

As such, not everyone is ready to give the company a total thumbs-up yet.

"Earnings could be sub-par for at least the next few quarters given the pressures of the credit cycle," Scott Sprinzen, a managing director in financial institutions for Standard & Poor's, told CNBC.com. "But we don't see a return to the substantial losses that they incurred over the past year, year-and-a-half."

S&P holds a an A-plus rating for Citigroup's banking activities and single-A for the holding company.

"They've been doing a lot in terms of bolstering their capital and liquidity and downsizing the balance sheet," Sprinzen said. "They've also divested things for the sake of bolstering capital which, given their druthers, they might have wanted to keep."

The reaction from investors on both the retail and institutional levels has been remarkable.

Fairholme Capital and Paulson & Co. have both made large moves in Citi over the past several months. The lower-than-expected 8.5 percent yield this week's sale of $2 billion trust preferred auction fetched sparked additional interest.

A lower yield reflects strong demand as the seller can offer a lower payoff to get investor interest. The preferred sale also provided hope to other banks in Citi's boat that the ability to raise capital is strong. as they have to start repaying government bailout funds.

Citi even has begun to attract interest from options investors again.

Normally a stock priced so low is considered a de facto option because of its risk, but traders are now picking up call options as sentiment grows that the stock could rise.

"What we're seeing is a lot of institutional interest that's doing this," said Mike Khouw, director of US derivatives trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. "Essentially people are saying this is a stock that can move."

While many analysts are treating warily Citi's claims that it could soon return to the days of $20 billion annual profits, the appetite for the once-dead stock definitely is back.

Pandit, in his CNBC interview, said the company has cut leverage to a 12 to 1 ratio, has $200 billion of liquidity and $36 billion in reserves-a position analysts cite as a strong positive for Citi-and is "completely concerned with making sure we're profitable as a bank."

"We come into 2010 very strong positioned," he said in remarks that foreshadowed testimony he gave to Congress earlier this week that Bove described as "ebullient." "The long-term profitability picture is clear."

Sunday, March 14, 2010

性爱指技课堂:阴蒂和阴道爱抚技巧

真正的性爱能手,能切实地利用手指,尤其是必须藉由爱抚阴蒂才能达到高潮的女性而言,充分地利用十指更加有效果。所以善于利用手指,女性在不知不觉中被诱导到高潮,这是使女性感到快感的要诀。

1、对于脖子、腋下、腕、脚等部份,从上而下利用四根手指头温柔的爱抚,以直线的方式加以刺激,这种爱抚可以挑起女性的性欲。

2、对于背部和大腿稍加刺激,以按摩的方式为要领,像画大图似的搓揉。这样就会使身体自然放松,而抗拒心也会渐渐消除。

3、对于臀部、乳房、乳头一边画着小圆,一边从内侧到外侧,给予搓揉按摩,使用四根指腹同时进行,展开螺旋状的爱抚较有效果。尤其是臀部的中心稍上四周,因为非常敏感,所以用食指和中指从肛门方向向腰部压入,感觉很好。

4、阴蒂四周是相当敏感的地带,所以要慎重地加以爱抚,不要太草率。尤其在耻骨上方四周用手指去磨擦,阴蒂的感度会增高,以达到沸点。

5、最后再慢慢去接近阴蒂,首先用指尖去轻轻触周边,并振动加强刺激,再慢慢地缩小范围,往阴蒂移去。这时即使是小小的刺激也会产生很大的快感,甚至马上达到高潮。

爱抚结束之后,可选择任何方式插入,女性因快感而振动,阴道会绷得更紧而快感更高,得到更高的满足。此外,有些女性对于阴蒂的爱抚不能满足,只有对于阴道的爱抚才能达到高潮。

1、首先用手将女性的双手固定在头顶上,再用手指或是舌头进行激烈的爱抚。

2、接着用一双脚从上方压着女性的脚。这样一来,可以利用另一只脚和膝盖挤压阴道,假如能用若即若离的方式进行挤压较佳。此时,阴茎不要贸然的插入,只要保持碰撞的情形,会让女性因期待而使阴道变得又湿又热。

3、重复地进行阴道爱抚。巧妙地利用G点。近来发现在阴道入口二、三公分的前壁处,比较轻易找到G点。尽可能浅浅地插入,像钱币一样大小的G点,听说只要刺激那里,随着快感会有透明的液体流出。

方法是先将手指插入阴道,要注重女性的反应,再行插入。任何体位法都能刺激阴道。但男性善用腰力,以正常体位法及背后体位法,比较轻易找到G点。尽可能浅浅地插入,朝着G点给予刺激,再像画圆的动作来进行性运动。

如何用手指让女性在不知不觉中被诱导到高潮?

手指如何爱抚阴蒂?

真正的性爱高手,能切实地利用手指,尤其是必须藉由爱抚阴蒂才能达到高潮的女性而言,充分地利用十指更加有效果。所以善于利用手指,女性在不知不觉中被诱导到高潮,这是使女性感到快感的要诀。

(1)对于背部和大腿稍加刺激,以按摩的方式为要领,像画大图似的搓揉。这样就会使身体自然放松,而抗拒心也会渐渐消除。

(2)对于脖子、腋下、腕、脚等部份,从上而下利用四根手指头温柔的爱抚,以直线的方式加以刺激,这种爱抚可以挑起女性的性欲。

(3)对于臀部、乳房、乳头一边画着小圆,一边从内侧到外侧,给予搓揉按摩,使用四根指腹同时进行,展开螺旋状的爱抚较有效果。尤其是臀部的中央稍上附近,因为非常敏感,所以用食指和中指从肛门方向向腰部压入,感觉很好。下半身的感度很高,此时女性渴望早一点结合。

(4)阴蒂附近是相当敏感的地带,所以要慎重地加以爱抚,不要太草率。尤其在耻骨上方附近用手指去磨擦,阴蒂的感度会增高,以达到沸点。

(5)最后再慢慢去接近阴蒂,首先用指尖去轻轻触周边,并振动加强刺激,再慢慢地缩小范围,往阴蒂移去。这时即使是小小的刺激也会产生很大的快感,甚至立刻达到高潮。爱抚结束之后,可选择任何方式插入,女性因快感而振动,阴道会绷得更紧而快感更高,得到更高的满足。

控制女方的手脚,进行阴道的爱抚有些女性对于阴蒂的爱抚不能满足,只有对于阴道的爱抚才能达到高潮。这类的女性渴求早一点插入阴茎。所以对于这类女性要尽量拖延插入的时间,让她感到焦虑。

还有要注意的3点就是:

(1)即使见到女性饥渴状,也不要插入。重复地进行阴道爱抚。巧妙地利用G点近来发现在阴道入口二、三公分的前壁处,比较容易找到G点。尽可能浅浅地插入,像钱币一样大小的G点,听说只要刺激那里,随着快感会有透明的液体流出。方法是先将手指插入阴道,要注意女性的反应,再行插入。任何体位法都能刺激阴道。但男性善用腰力,以正常体位法及背后体位法,比较容易找到G点。尽可能浅浅地插入,朝着G点给予刺激,再像画圆的动作来进行性运动。

(2)要用手将女性的双手固定在头顶上,这样可以去除女性用手遮掩乳房及下腹部的动作,再用手指或是舌头进行激烈的爱抚。

(3)用一双脚从上方压着女性的脚。这样一来,可以利用另一只脚和膝盖挤压阴道,如果能用若即若离的方式进行挤压较佳。此时,阴茎不要贸然的插入,只要保持碰撞的情形,会让女性因期等待而使阴道变得又湿又热。

蝴蝶式两性技巧让女人高潮不断

根据做爱技巧姿势的不断变化,最新的蝴蝶式性交技巧能让女性在一次做爱中,得到多重性爱高潮的作用,这种性爱姿势到底如何进行呢,详细技巧和方法给大家介绍一下!

经常有人问我,最能让女性满足的姿势是什么?我的答案是:女上男下。这个姿势容易诱发女性G点高潮或多重高潮。但很多朋友说,G点不容易找,即使女性也这样认为。

所以,今天要给大家介绍一种新颖的性爱姿势,有朋友称之为“蝴蝶式”性爱。

在这种姿势中,女性可以躺在床边;男性站立,并托起爱人的臀部和背部,如此一来,阴道也会被提高。女性因处于合适高度,其上背和头部就会很自然地放于床上。

有的朋友告诉我,由于角度问题,这个动作似乎并不能触及女性的最深处。然而,这其实是一件好事。因为此时男性达到的深度,正好是女性G点的部位。

德国曾有研究显示,G点是尿道和阴道之间,大拇指指甲盖般大小的增生组织。每个女性的具体位置略有不同,但基本都在阴道入口二三公分的前壁处,靠肚皮一侧。

在“蝴蝶式”中,男性可以根据需要,来改变插入的方式和深度。如在3—4次较浅的插入过程中,有一次深入的插入;也可以根据需要采用多次深入的插入,伴随一两次较浅的插入。

同时,女性要注意自己腿和脚的位置,最好能放在男性的肩上或环绕其腰部。此外,尽量尝试着支撑住自己的身体,以减少爱人的负担和压力,这样才能让性爱更美好。

性技巧:怎样才能让女人突然想做爱?

怎样才能激起配偶的性兴奋,这需要相当时间才能探明。因为在性生活中,你得找到能激发对方性兴奋的程序。读读下面的性感指南,将有助你了解你和配偶的身体特点、你们的感觉兴奋源,从而使性生活更美满如意。

1、抚摸的力量。
神经末稍和血管越多的地方,性刺激感受越强。人体最表层的皮肤并无感觉,感觉产生于第二层皮肤。对大多数人来说,生殖器、耳垂、嘴唇、乳房、臀部、大腿是最明显的性感区。但许多人的性感区地包括脖子、但许多人的性感区也包括脖子、手掌、脚掌和腹部等。

在性爱中,抚摸的顺序有着重要作用。一般而言,应先从最不敏感的部位开始,逐渐向最敏感的部位过渡。一开始就抚摸最敏感的部位,只会适得其反。

男女喜欢的抚摸方式各不相同。女人似乎对抚摸的力度更为敏感。通常她们喜欢先轻柔地抚摸,再逐渐增加力度。很多人以自己喜爱的方式抚摸配偶,但这不一定是对方所喜欢的。你应先弄清对方的真正需要(如抚摸部位和力度等),方可获良好效果。

2、爱的眼光。
比之妻子,丈夫的性兴奋更需要视觉刺激。这正好可以说明,为什么男人做爱时喜欢开着灯,而女人却宁愿光线昏暗,或完全在无光情况下做爱。

但女人也可因视觉刺激产生性兴奋。而且,英俊男人对于她们,同漂亮女人对于男人一样,可引起相同的视觉快感。但习惯上她们对此避而不谈。

尽管视觉刺激在性爱中如此重要,但很多人仍错误地回避使用眼睛。他们担心自己的体貌不如人意而心存顾虑。女人可能担心自己乳房太小,大腿太粗;男人可能担心自己阴茎太小,体毛太浓。我们的自我不足意识是那样强,常难以相信他人会因自己而萌发性兴奋。

3、性感气味。
每个人都有一种体味,由皮肤表面的细菌形成,它同指纹一样因人而异。我们感到某人对自己有吸引力,在相当程度上同他的体味有关。据调查,71% 的男人和女人认为体味是一种重要的“兴奋剂”。约1/3的女人认为体味浓的男人比体味淡的男人性感。半数以上的人认为麝香型体味最性感。约1/4的人偏爱辛辣型体味。

女人的嗅觉似乎比男人灵敏。她们可嗅到3英尺外的轻微汗味。在排卵期,她们的嗅觉尤为灵敏。

人体类似麝香的气味产生于阴部周围和液窝下的腺体。在动物界,一种散发香味的复合物——外激素,在求偶中起着关键作用,它吸引雄性动物追逐多产的雌性动物。但人类的情况有所不同。嗅到配偶的一点体香,通常不足以使你大动情欲。但配偶的体香确实在性爱中有不可低估的作用。现代人酷爱清洁,总是把全身洗得干干净净,气味全无,使人的天然体香难尽其用,当然,恶劣的气味自然也很令人倒胃口。所以,最佳办法是既保持干净,又保留体香。

4、味觉与性爱。
我们的味蕾约1万个,按不同感觉功能分布在舌头的不同部位:舌尖味蕾感受甜味,舌侧味蕾感受酸味,舌后端味蕾感受苦味。只有咸味是舌头各部位均可感受到的。这可算是一件好事,因为人体在十分干净时也略带咸味。

男女的味觉嗜好似乎略有不同。男人较喜欢咸味,女人较喜欢甜味。但在性爱中,最重要的是清除任何不爽口的滋味。我们大都喜欢在配偶洗浴后与之做爱。尽管电影和广告中常将汗味宣扬为“性感媒介”,但实际上很少人愿在刚打完网球或高尔夫球后吻舔配偶之躯并与之做爱。

用多变手法刺激女人私处 令她欲仙欲死

刺激阴蒂的过程既是调动女性的主观能动性和性欲的时刻,也是使女方迅速从兴奋期过渡进入平台期的时刻,女方必须积极参与,当好向导和指挥,明确向男方指明自己最敏感的部位和最喜欢的刺激方式,随时进行充分交流以纠正男方刺激手法的偏差或不足。否则让男方盲人骑瞎马乱闯乱撞不仅仅白白浪费了时间和精力,还会使女方自己感到失望和烦躁。

阴蒂含有丰富敏感的神经末梢,其密度要比四周组织或阴茎龟头高六到十倍。阴蒂的神经支配是阴蒂背神经,它是阴部神经最末端的一个很小的分支,终止于阴蒂头和体的神经末梢丛。阴蒂背神经的较大神经束上不规则地分布着与本体感受刺激有关的环层小体,它们在传递躯体形式刺激引起的传入冲动中起着重要作用。

阴蒂还富含对触觉十分敏感的游离神经末梢,由此可见阴蒂为什么会对触觉那么敏感,假如巧妙地刺激阴蒂往往很轻易激发女性的性欲,而且经常能在不需要性交的情况下就使女性达到性高潮。一般来说刺激阴蒂体部比直接刺激阴蒂头部的效果更好。

男人在抚摩女性器官的时候,要不断地变换方式。不要一直使用同一根手指,应该要换别根手指试试看,然后再使用两根手指,然后三根。偶然,你也可以用整个手掌去从下而上地滑过阴户。先从大腿内侧开始向上抚摩到阴唇。上下往返轻揉阴蒂;记住要在润滑的状态下搓揉它,以免因过度磨擦而让女人感到疼痛,温柔而有节奏的上下搓动,过一会儿之后,再前后往返的搓揉,然后再一次上下往返。

随女人的呼吸喘息调整抚慰的节奏速率。当她变得兴奋的时候,就加快抚慰的速度,然后再慢下来。时快时慢,从容而不急躁,并且随意而发地到处游走。假如她同时也可刺激你的阴茎,那你就跟着她速度去做。

到处游走之后,你可以开始环绕搓揉阴蒂。先往左绕圈、再从右绕圈、然后再绕小圈。之后,再成螺旋状的滑动搓揉,先从整个阴户外围开始螺旋环绕搓揉,然后朝阴蒂慢慢缩小圈子。花一些时间在轻揉阴蒂头后,再开始慢慢扩大搓揉的圈子。

在运用各种不同动作的同时,你应该注重女人的反应,以便找出最适合她当时心情的抚慰方式,然后多用这种方式让她兴奋;抚玩这个动作,再变化一下,然后再回到这个动作,因为,再令人喜欢的动作,假如一再重复,还是会变得无聊乏味。但是,一旦她感到了很兴奋,就可以持续这个动作,这会让她达到更高的兴奋程度。

假如你的手指头累了,也可以用你的舌头试试看,她一定会喜欢它,因为那是一种全然不同的感受。非凡是在女人很兴奋的时候,用你的舌头轻舔她的阴蒂会令她更加兴奋不已。

此外,阴蒂往往需要长时间的持续不断的较强刺激,究竟隔着一层包皮,所以它的耐受性好,尤其到临近高潮时更要用力和大幅度地予以刺激。

女性平时自慰时就很少采用对阴蒂头的直接手法刺激,即使采用也仅仅限于兴奋期,使用唾液或润滑剂。在高潮之后,阴蒂头对触摸将变得极为敏感。当渴望再次高潮时就要非凡注重避免对阴蒂头的直接接触。女性在刺激时只是更多地直接集中于阴蒂干上,左侧或右侧均可,一般随左撇左子或右撇子而定,但也会交替进行。长久地集中于某一部位或对某一部位施加了过重的手法刺激的话,可以造成一定程度的局部麻醉。

也有不少女性采用刺激整个阴阜的手法,这样也可以引起直接刺激了阴蒂主体的生理反应,这些女性宁愿避免可能由直接刺激阴蒂所产生的性敏感区的势不可挡的高强度冲动,喜欢让它缓慢发生,逐步“升温”。

10大技巧让女人彻夜消魂

1、抽送的技巧。阴茎插入之后要浅插,先来十下浅的,一边和女性说话,分散她的精力,趁她不留心的时候,猛地来一下深入到底,然后再来几下浅的,然后趁她不留心,再来几下深的,如此搞几次,你的女性一定会鬼哭神嚎,水流直下三千尺,疑是淫河落九天……

3、舔她的阴蒂(不要和我说你不晓得阴蒂在那)。阴蒂在小穴的最上方,一般被大阴唇的顶端包裹。你可用手轻轻的扒开,从下向上舔。先舔周围,本人不喜欢舔阴道口,由于不喜欢把嘴巴搞得湿漉漉的。装作不在意的样子,用舌尖扫过阴蒂,千万不可过大劲。做这个的时候,你也可让女性含着你的阴茎,不过当你舔到她的阴蒂的时候,她便会浪叫着把你的阴茎吐出来了,还要留心她兴奋至极把你的JJ咬断哦。

4、吮吸她的乳头。含在嘴里,用舌头舔乳头的尖部,视她的兴奋情形,可用牙齿轻咬乳头。假如她很清醒就不要咬,也不要不断的咬,要把咬和舔结合在一块。

5、胸部是特别可爱的。把女人的两只胸部相中间推,用嘴巴并且含住两颗奶头,这会让你的女人有奇异的快感。

6、最深的体位。有人说是后备式,本人不以为。最深的体位是:女人在下侧躺,你把女人的一只腿扛在肩上,一直腿坐在身下,呈剪刀式,把阴茎插入,如此,两个人的私处是结合最接近的了,并且你还能用上劲,有多大劲用多大劲。你会感觉你的jj就像钻头,不止的往深部钻探,女人也就淫叫不尽了。

7、后背式。别让你的女人趴在什么东西上面,如床边、梳妆台之类,就在一片空地上,例如客厅中央、卧室中央,总之周围未有能够抓住的东西,让女人弯着腰站在那里,你从后面插进去,双手卡住女人的胯部。现在你便可以来回抽送了。怎样抽送,请看第五条,总之,深浅轻重,千万不可单调,并且浅、轻的多点,不可猛抽重插。所以一方面刺激太强,自身可能很快射掉,此外一直太强的刺激,女人时间长了,阴道也很麻木,没感觉,也不喜欢。看着女人像自个儿的猎物一致在自身的胯下浪叫,心理是非常满足的。假如快的话,女人在30秒内便会站不住。

8、尝试一下肛交。插得她很浪的时候,她的下身会布满淫水,神志极度亢奋。你能够需求肛交。在插她阴道的时候,用手指蘸着淫水插她肛门,先用小指头,然后逐个更换。在这个进程中,她不反感。你便可以插她的肛门。要留心,必须要有足够的润滑。要不然你们两个均会痛。插进去不可以大力抽送,你能够渐渐插到底,渐渐拔出来。毕竟,插入女人肛门的感觉是最爽的,真的抽插起来,还是在阴道里舒服。重点,你进入女人的肛门时,可有一种彻底占有你身下女人的感觉,并且是占有处女的感觉哦。

9、善用手指。有人喜欢中指,有人喜欢无名指,这不在乎。在用手指插女人的阴道前,你必须确定她的下部已彻底湿润。你的嘴巴不可闲着,要亲吻、要说花言巧语、要吃奶头,总之很忙。手指在下方也不可闲着,现爱抚外阴,然后插入一根手指。要渐渐的。手指在里面要运动,不断运动,但要温柔。当她的淫水不住的溢出来时,能够把淫水往肛门涂一些。用小拇指插肛门。当女人下方两个洞都被插入,平常人均会受不了。本人常常用拇指插阴道,无名指或中指插肛门。两个手指同期动的话,女人会爽的不晓得爹娘。当你的两根手指隔着一层薄膜,捏在一块的时候,心理亦是十分兴奋的。

10.交替运用。简易说一些。这些办法能够同时用于一个女人的身上,也可一部分用于一个女人的身上。这就看你的女人适于哪种了。

為何股價拉回即是買點?—破解股市迷思27

在報章雜誌上閱讀股票投資新聞時,我們常常可以看到專家建議:「股價拉回即是買點」。但是,為何股價拉回即是買點呢?這句話有何意義?

從實證經驗上來觀察,多數人在採納專家「拉回即是買點」的建議時,實際上根本做不到,因為多數散戶投資人都是在高點看回不回時,就跳下去興沖沖的買股票,結果卻買在最高點上;而真的等到行情回檔時,市場一片悲觀,之前衝動想買股票的人,心情也翻多為空,轉變為觀望態度,股價拉回卻不敢買了。

所以,「股價拉回即是買點」的建議,往往散戶實證行為都與之顛倒。那麼,這種經驗上作不到的建議,有何論述意義呢?又為何會如此呢?

仔細認真去檢視「拉回即是買點」的陳述,這句話的意思是想要表達說:「目前市場行情有點過熱,但多頭行情並未結束,所以等到股價適度拉回整理時,投資人將可以獲得更高的波段報酬。」

這句話隱藏著幾個隱而未宣的前提要件,分別是:

1目前是個多頭市場,所以,股票可以繼續買。
2目前股價過熱,因此,適度拉回以後再買,才有辦法賺更多。

這兩個前提要件要能成立,還有個命題是:股市的多頭行情通常會根據波浪理論的解釋模型,呈現接近「五浪三波」的漲跌型態,也就是第一波上漲完後,會拉回作第二波整理;第二波整理完畢後,還會有第三波上漲;然後是第四波拉回,最後進行第五波的末升段上漲。其後才是a、b、c三波的下跌型態。

在這個多頭上漲的過程中,「拉回即是買點」的意思,就是財經專家在建議投資人不要在第一、三波的高點上買股票,而應該靜待第二、四波的拉回整理型態發生後,再介入市場。

「拉回即是買點」這句話要有意義,等於要先承認技術分析上的波浪理論必須是正確無誤的,這種建議法才有實用的參考價值。否則,在一個錯誤前提上的命題,立論基礎都不正確了,本身怎麼可能還會有使用價值呢?

在<波浪理論是什麼?有用嗎?—破解股市迷思22>該文中,我們已經討論過,波浪理論充其量只是經驗法則所歸納出來的股價走勢型態,並沒有辦法藉以成為一套可以演繹出未來股價走勢的科學化預測工具。

更何況就歸納法來說,只要經驗案例中有例外法則,就無法具足說明該法則的科學有效性。而在實際上充滿千變萬化的股票市場中,投資人很快就能找到一籮筐波浪原型的例外狀況,這讓「波浪理論」無法成為具有說服力的經驗通則。

如果波浪理論在實際運用上,常常破綻百出的話,那麼,建基在股市多頭行情將呈現波浪型態的建議---「股價拉回即是買點」,就一點立論依據都沒有,充其量只是財經分析師為了避免遭客戶抱怨為「馬上慘遭套牢」的一套圓滑建議。

從投資的角度來看「股價拉回即是買點」這句話,也顯得毫無意義。因為投資是要根據公司的未來獲利狀況,衡酌目前的股價是否合理,如果目前的股價不管是從本益比、股價淨值比還是內在價值等角度來衡量,盡屬合理的話,那麼此刻就是合理買點,何來「拉回」之說呢?

如果從投資一家企業的角度看,此時股價為合理價位,那麼只要市場內外條件不變,更低的股價將更為合理,並不可能發生要拉回到哪個價位才算合理的說法,因此,「拉回即是買點」,根本不能成立。

投資人要明白的是,「拉回即是買點」這句話本身就是個技術分析的用語,比較適合短線投機者來運用。如果自己本身是個投資人的話,應該要考慮觀察的,是一檔股票的合理買點為何?而不是去參考哪支股票的股價拉回即為買點。

至於從投機的行為來看,「拉回即是買點」,這句話已經確認了目前股市行情並非末升段的第五波,因此還會有持續上漲的可能性。但問題是,一個股市多頭行情目前到底是處於第幾波?沒有人在過程中會有標準答案與標準的解釋法,都是言人人殊,沒個標準的。

投機者如果要參考投資專家所建議的「拉回即是買點」,絕對要小心去認清當時的投資市場究竟比較像是處於第幾波?如果投機者自己也沒把握研判的話,那輕率相信「拉回即是買點」,即等於直接默認了行情最高點還未發生,股價還可以追高。

從實證上來看,大多數散戶為何迫不及待不等股價拉回就追高,就正是因為相信「拉回即是買點」背後的「股市多頭行情尚未結束」的隱含命題,因此才會認為高點追高無妨。事實上,正是這點迷思,往往讓多數散戶鎩羽而歸,投資績效慘不忍睹。

勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳?—破解股市迷思23

勤做功課為何投資報酬率不佳?—破解股市迷思23

經常有偏愛股票投資的朋友,認為只要勤做功課,就一定能戰勝股市,因此,這些朋友不是努力閱讀財務報表,就是勤看財經新聞,要不然,就是花時間分析大盤與個股的技術分析走勢圖。但論結果,仍然不脫「賠錢」兩字。

勤做功課的朋友,有時候,往往虧損幅度還遠高於不愛做功課的人。諸如有些「傻人有傻福」型的投資人,買進了一檔股票,日子久了也忘了,忽然有一天,發現股價竟然漲了好幾倍,一開心,賣掉股票,換算持有期間的年報酬率,平均也有兩位數以上的表現。

花時間做功課的投資績效,卻輸給不花時間的人?這往往是股海常態,也常常讓有心人為之氣結。更嘔人的是,花時間挑了檔基本面好、財報漂亮的績優股,卻又眼看著投機股活蹦亂跳,而好股票的股價文風不動,真的也挺讓人傷心又難過。

但話說回來,勤做功課,就代表投資的報酬率就該增加嗎?

我覺得這根本是一個迷思,是投資人誤以為投資像考試,只要花時間讀書,就會考出好成績。但投資並非考試,為何努力做功課,就必然代表成績要好呢?更何況,讀書要有效率,要讀通、讀懂內容,考試才能拿冠軍,但有多少人搞通或搞懂投資股票的遊戲規則呢?

在投資市場上,常常看到許多朋友對於股票投資的獲利方法有哪幾種?都搞不清楚,就一味的砸錢買股票,自然產生東施效顰、啼笑皆非的效果。

舉例來說,投資人研究公司的基本面、財務報表,按理應該看重的是公司獲利能力,以及其盈餘是否能成為明年分紅的本錢。更內行與專業的投資人,要分析的則是公司長期穩定經營模式,以及創造長期現金收益的能力。這些是作為投資人是否要長期投資該檔股票,並藉以取得股利股息的關鍵因素。

但偏偏,許多基本面型投資人,不但要求公司獲利績效要浮現,更期盼其股價能提前反映未來獲利,在短時間內必須產生股價驚驚漲的效應。也就是說,長期分紅想要拿,短期資本利得也要取,兩頭都想兼顧,自然兩頭都顧不好。

再舉例來說,研究技術分析型的投資人,看重的應該是股價短期內上漲的可能性,但偏偏,為了擔心股價萬一漲不動時的風險,乾脆事前退而求其次,瞄準最壞仍要有股利股息可領的標的,因此選擇財報較佳、有利多題材的個股來投資。

結果發現,虧損累累的轉機型公司漲翻天,基本面佳的個股,卻漲個兩三天就逢高獲利回吐,發生利多出盡而慘遭高點套牢的現象。甚至,這些投資人將來的長期殖利率,還遠遜於短期股價下跌損失,可謂得不償失。

費心研究股市,努力鑽研財經新聞,或者用心看一家公司的財報或技術指標,這些都沒有錯,但問題往往出在,投資要得「法」,要掌握正確的方法,才有可能取得良好的投資績效。

投資的方法不對,在基本面上做技術面功夫,或在技術線型上做財報面功課,都會產生格格不入的績效不彰現象。又或者說,長期投資人卻跑去做短線投機,短線投機人又想玩長期投資,中途變換投資方針與方向,自然更是股票投資時的大忌。

做什麼,就該像什麼!想要長期投資績優股者,看重的既然是長期獲利表現,就應該對股價短期起伏,無所介懷。反過來說,既然著眼的是股價短期的漲跌,那麼,基本面虧損的公司,又何損於其會漲的利空出盡氣勢呢?

因為投資不是長期、短期,或基本面、技術面這樣簡單的分野而已,介於這些煢煢大範疇間的交叉組合與排列方式,不知凡幾,所以,更加使得投資人踏入股票投資領域後,會發生眼花撩亂,無所適從之感。

更何況,股市多頭時期、空頭時期,以及多頭初升段、主升段、末升段,和空頭的不同階段,市場會漲的、會跌的類股,又各有其特色,這種時間長軸中的不同特性之類股輪番表現,更加深了投資人想要靠單一之方法獲利的難度。

既然股票投資獲利難有單一、簡易之法,是否代表獲利就不可行呢?當然也非如此悲觀。因時制宜,以自己之不變,隨機應變股市無時無刻之變,可說是投資股市的最高指導原則,也是遊戲規則。

投資人與其花時間勤做功課,不如在勤做功課前,先掌握好股海投資應具備的觀念、態度與準備,才有可能把時間花在刀口上,取得輕鬆、愉快、甚至不勞而獲之投資佳績。

令男人最爽六种自慰方法

夫妻异地或者其他原因不能进行夫妻性生活如果进行适当的自慰对男性健康是有好处的,当然,如果自慰过度也是会导致健康的反作用。
  男性自慰六大方法
  如将所有的自慰方式加以整理,在男性方面大略可归纳为下列数种:

  (1)“活塞型”:以五根手指握住阴茎,重复做活塞运动,在所有自慰方式中,活塞式最为普遍。

  (2)“按压式”:阴茎最敏感的部位是龟头及其下方的沟状部分,以手指尖按压揉擦这些部位,这就是按压型。

  (3)伏压式:身体伏卧床上,把阴茎压在床上或枕头上,此时腰部可以上下起伏做出性交之姿势。

  (4)混合式:就是混合前述几种方法来进行自慰,或者依序来做,这是对应单纯法的一种方法。

  (5)广泛型:这种方式不仅刺激阴茎部位,同时刺激可助兴奋的其他部位,例如:以右手摩擦阴茎从事活塞运动,同则时以左手摩擦拉动乳头,使它受刺激,这种方法可以说是多方的自慰型式。

  (6)帮助型:这是需要使用补助器来进行的自慰方法。例如以温水来喷洒阴茎,或者以毛巾来充当阴膣等,在美国也有人使用浴室用的圆型卫生纸轴。

  还有许多各式各样的方法,前面所举的只是较常使用的型式罢了。但不管使用那种方法,只要不产生痛感或受伤,对健康都是不会有所影响的。



  自慰也要做准备运动

  1、自慰放松术:自慰也需要做准备运动

  自慰放松一:仿照性交的姿势抚摸自己利于身心的放松。把手放在乳房或性器官上,深吸气,轻轻抚摸,慢数三下,呼气,慢数四下,然后慢吸慢呼十下。

  自慰放松二:继续上述动作,直至性欲高涨进入高潮,全身紧张感的彻底释放之后迎来的是平静和放松。

  2、自慰的心理暗示:不打没准备的战

  对于自慰,必须先抱有健康的心理认识。

  自慰如“销魂探险”:通过自我愉悦探索自己最享受的方式,了解什么样的抚摸和幻想会启开或封闭你的性欲。

  自慰如“性反应操练”:好比健身房里的有氧运动,自慰有助于刺激性反应。一边抚摸一边悉心关注身体做出的反射,让身体和心灵本着自己喜欢的情形做出反应。在不断的操练中追求极致和完美。

  自慰如“性伴侣演练”:独自的体验和反应一旦进入舒适状态,与性伴侣交欢也就变得更加舒适,你懂得了如何引导对方按你喜欢的方式性交。这好似赛马,在正式投入比赛之前,你会不遗余力地在马场操练。

  自慰是种“自我玩味”,并不是什么不道德的事,只要不是每天沈溺,正确的自慰并不会影响健康。有些人自慰后会浮现“罪恶感”,你想太多啦,别被老掉牙错误的教育,徒增自己的心理压力;只要兼顾到卫生,自慰没什么不好。根据统记,95%以上的成年男性和60%以上的成年女性,都曾有过自慰的经验,而青春期更是自慰的极大期。

  并不是鼓励自慰,而是更好地利用自慰来保持身体的健康。

瘦人应多吃莲藕养脾胃

想增肥的人都应该先要了解脾、胃对于营养吲收的重要性。秋令时节,正是鲜藕应市之时。鲜藕除了含有大量的碳水化合物外,蛋白质和各种维生素及矿物质的含量也很丰富,是补养脾胃的好食材。  如果想让藕有养胃滋阴、健脾益气的作用,必须把它加工熟了。生藕性寒,甘凉入胃,对肠胃有刺激作用。

  而把藕加工制成藕粉,是不可多得的食补佳品,不仅易于消化,还有养血止血、调中开胃之效。平时脾胃不好的朋友不妨自己在家做藕粉:首先,把藕连皮切成薄片,为了加快干燥速度,可以先蒸上5分钟;然后,把藕片平铺在干净的纱布上晒干,等晒干、晒透后,放入研钵中捣成粉末即可。

  早餐时,用开水冲上一小碗藕粉,从营养的角度来看,不仅能保证摄取到充足的碳水化合物,同时还有一些维生素C和膳食纤维。

  挑选藕的时候也有讲究。购买时要挑表面发黄、藕体粗壮的,断口的地方闻着有一股清香。使用工业用酸处理过的莲藕看起来很白,闻着有酸味。注意要无伤、无烂、无锈斑、不断节、不干缩、未变色。

专家分析消瘦原因和增重方法

俗话说,“水有源、树有根”,人消瘦总有病根。找病因,除病根,是“瘦子”变胖的主要方法。据保健专家分析,消瘦原因大致有以下几方面:  ·各种慢性病及器质性病变

例如腹泻、消化性溃疡、结核、肿瘤、贫血寄生虫病等。

·遗传和内分泌因素
在遗传、内分泌等因素影响下,某些家庭成员都比较瘦,但是没有器质性疾患,属于无力型体型。其特点是:身体瘦高,颈细长,垂肩、胸廓扁平,胸骨剑突下角小于90度,精力也很充沛,完全能胜任学习或工作,但易患各种慢性病。

·精神因素
由于情绪因素,精神焦虑,生活不规律,过度劳累,睡眠不足,身体消耗多于摄入。

·饮食
饮食不调,缺乏体育锻炼。缺乏营养,尤其是缺乏蛋白质成分。

瘦人如何练壮
据冬林健康城的几位教练介绍,瘦人在进行健美锻炼时,首先要弄清自己属于哪种消瘦。因为消瘦有单纯性消瘦和继发性消瘦之分。单纯性消瘦没有明确的内分泌疾病,继发性消瘦是由神经系统或内分泌系统的器质性病变引起的。如属继发性消瘦,则请病愈后再进行健美锻炼。若属单纯性消瘦,那么进行健美锻炼要特别注意以下几个问题:

合理安排运动量
运动量的安排是科学锻炼的重要环节之一。实践证明,消瘦者应以中等运动量(每分钟心率在130至160次之间)的有氧锻炼为宜,器械重量以中等负荷(最大肌力的50%至80%)为佳。时间安排可每周练3次(隔天1次),每次1至1个半小时。每次练8至10个动作,每个动作做3至4组。做法是快收缩、稍停顿、慢伸展。连续做一组动作时间为60秒左右,组间间歇20至60秒,每种动作间歇1至2分钟。一般情况下,每组应能连续完成8至15次,如果每组次数达不到8次,可适当减轻重量;以最后两次必须用全力才能完成的动作,对肌肉组织刺激较深,“超量恢复”明显,锻炼效果极佳。

注意安全
健美锻炼的器材都有一定的重量,不仅锻炼前后要做好准备活动和整理活动,而且要注意检查器材安装得是否牢固,以防不测。锻炼时要注意重量是否适度,切勿做力不能及的练习。使用杠铃等重器械时,要有人保护。最好是在专业教练的指导下锻炼,以便互相鼓励,互相帮助,互相保护。

打好基础
消瘦者在初练阶段(2至3个月)最好能进健美培训班学习锻炼,以便正确、系统地掌握动作技术,全面提高身体素质。特别要注意肌肉力量和耐力的锻炼,逐步提高机体的适应能力,打下良好的基础。

要有重点和针对性
消瘦者经过2至3个月锻炼后,体力会明显增强,精力也会比以前充沛。这时,应重点锻炼大肌肉群,如胸大肌、三角肌、肱二头肌、肱三头肌、背阔肌、臀大肌和股四头肌等,运动量要随时调整。另外,同一个部位的肌群可采用不同的动作、不同的器械进行锻炼,并且要使所练肌群单独收缩。随着肌肉力量的啬和动作协调性的提高,锻炼的效果会越来越显著。一般情况下,练习动作一个半月到两个月变换一次。此外,锻炼时精神(意念)要集中于所练部位,切忌谈笑、听音乐等。所练部位肌肉的酸、胀、饱、热感越强,锻炼效果越佳。这样,再坚持半年到一年,体型就会发生显著的变化。

少练其它项目
消瘦者进行健美锻炼时,最好少参加其它运动项目的锻炼,特别是耐力性项目的运动,如长跑、踢足球、打篮球等。因为这些运动消耗能量较多,不利于肌肉的增长,而且会越练越瘦。此外,平时不要做耗费精力太多的其它活动。

合理的膳食
只有摄入的能量大于消耗的能量,人才能变胖。因此,消瘦者的膳食调配一定要合理、多样,不可偏食。平时除食用富含动物性蛋白质的肉、蛋、禽类外,还要适当多吃一些豆制品及赤豆、百合、蔬菜、瓜果等。只要饮食营养全面,利于消化吸收,再加上适当的健美锻炼,就能在较短时间内变得丰腴起来。

坚定信心持之以恒
消瘦者要使体型由瘦变壮、丰腴健美,不是一两天、一两个月的事,凭“一时热”,想“一口吃个胖子”的练法不行,因锻炼方法不对、效果不明显而丧失信心也不行,只有坚定胜利的信心做好吃苦的准备,以高昂的情绪积极进行科学的、有计划的、坚持不懈的锻炼,才能获得最后成功。

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Citigroup shares surge 8% on Fairholme interview

NEW YORK -- Citigroup Inc stock surged as much as 8.4% on Tuesday after a prominent fund manager said the bank's shares were underpriced.

In an interview with Fortune, Fairholme fund manager Bruce Berkowitz argued that Citigroup's balance sheet is improving, the bank is well capitalized, and the stock is trading at a lower valuation than many of its peers.

"The price is right," Mr. Berkowitz told Fortune. "It's just a question of when it becomes obvious to everyone that the worst is over."

Mr. Berkowitz manages US$11-billion at Fairholme, Fortune said. Morningstar recently named Fairholme a top fund manager over the last decade, the magazine reported.

Separately, the U.S. government is considering shedding its 7.7 billion Citigroup shares over the next few months, according to Fox Business Network's Charlie Gasparino. Previously, investors thought the United States would look to sell over the course of the year.

Jon Diat, a spokesman for Citigroup, declined to comment, as did a U.S. Treasury spokeswoman.

The U.S. government is eligible to start selling its stake of about 27% in the bank later this month.

Citigroup shares rose 27 US cents, or 7.6%, to US$3.83 at mid-afternoon after trading as high as US$3.86. The stock is trading well above the US$3.25 level at which the U.S. government bought the shares.

Citigroup options traded actively as well, with overall volume of about 1.28 million contracts four times greater than usual at mid-afternoon, according to option analytics firm Trade Alert.

Citigroup Shares in Rally Mode

Citigroup shares surged Tuesday, suggesting the troubled institution's stock may have turned a corner.

The move comes on the one-year anniversary of the S&P 500 index scraping its low of the financial crisis. Through last week, Citigroup had rallied more than 250% since famously breaking below a buck intra-day action in March of last year. It rallied along with the other big banks over the past 12 months as the economy stabilized.
Citigroup shares were recently quoted at $3.78, up 22 cents, or 6%. Their high for the session is $3.86. More than 988 million shares have changed hands, well beyond the issue's three-month trailing daily average of 524 million shares. As usual, the stock was sitting atop the most active list for the New York Stock Exchange with its volume more than six times more than its closest competition, Bank of America, which had volume of 146 million in late afternoon trades.

The stock hasn't seen these heights since early December, just prior to the emergence of speculation that the company was readying a deal to repay TARP funds. News that eventually came to pass on Dec. 14.

Bullish comments from several different sources stoked the trading action on Tuesday. Legendary investor Bruce Berkowitz said in an interview with Fortune that the worst is over for Citigroup and that shares look cheap these days. Also, fixed income analysts at CreditSights also made positive comments regarding Citigroup's businesses.

Berkowitz, who recently added $700 million worth of Citigroup shares to his Fairholme Fund portfolio, said he believes Citigroup's balance sheet is slowly improving and that even some of the more troubled assets now return more than 5%.
"People are so focused on the liabilities that they've potentially forgotten about some of the assets," Berkowitz told Fortune.

"The price is right," he also said. "It's just a question of when it becomes obvious to everyone that the worst is over."

Another factor driving the buying may be a reported strong reception for the company's offering of $2 billion in trust preferred securities. Dow Jones is reporting the securities are seeing "much demand" from both institutional and retail investors.

Citigroup shares astonishingly broke the buck last year following the steep slide of the markets at large. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank to its crisis-low of 6,547 a year ago today as well. Citigroup shares first fell below $1 during intra-day trading on March 5, 2009, and then again slipped below $1 a share on March 9, during regular trading hours.

Citigroup's financial supermarket model was sorely tested during the financial crisis as toxic securities and soured mortgages and credit card loans wreaked havoc on the company's capital position. The U.S. government ended up injecting $45 billion worth of fresh capital into Citigroup.

After much shareholder unrest and government browbeating, Citigroup now seems to be making some headway in its massive turnaround, which has included splitting the bank up into a good bank/bad bank structure and selling off unwanted assets as well as huge turnover at the management and board levels.

After posting losses for the past two years, analysts, on average, expect Citigroup to finally break even in the current first quarter, and post a small profit for the whole of fiscal 2010, according to Thomson Reuters.
Shares of the other big banks -- Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo -- were all also trading higher on Tuesday.

Citigroup shares: No longer toxic?

March 9, 2010: 4:31 AM ET

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Yes, Citigroup lost billions in the financial crisis. And yes, it's still swimming in toxic assets. But Bruce Berkowitz argues the worst is over.

Berkowitz, who manages the $11 billion Fairholme fund and was recently named Morningstar's U.S. stock manager of the past decade, recently bought more than $700 million worth of Citi shares.

In an interview with Fortune, Berkowitz said Citi's balance sheet is slowly improving. He calculates that even its bad assets now return more than 5%."People are so focused on the liabilities," he says, "that they've potentially forgotten about some of the assets."

Citi also has some of its highest capital ratios in years after the U.S. Treasury and other regulators thoroughly examined its balance sheet. Citi's widely followed Tier 1 capital ratio, an important measure of the bank's ability to absorb losses, was 11.7% at the end of 2009. That's up from about 7% in 2007, before the economic crisis.

Yet, as Berkowitz argues, shares remain cheap.

The stock trades at 0.8 times tangible book value, which doesn't include goodwill or other intangibles like intellectual property. That's almost half the ratio of its peers. "The price is right," Berkowitz says. "It's just a question of when it becomes obvious to everyone that the worst is over."

Other smart money has recently been speculating on the stock. Hedge fund legend George Soros bought nearly 100 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2009; John Paulson of Paulson & Co. added more than 200 million shares; and Daniel Loeb's Third Point bought shares worth $83 million.

For the short term, it's difficult to argue that Citi's problems are gone. The bank lost $7.6 billion in the last quarter and announced that it's still working to sell off $547 billion in bad assets.

But Berkowitz says investors can't ignore the Treasury's move to allow Citi to repay its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds. "The only way the government was going to allow repayment was if they thought the bank was recapitalized," he says.

With what he calls the "government's Good Housekeeping seal," Berkowitz thinks Citi shareholders no longer face large losses from hidden toxic assets. It also decreases the odds that Citi will need more capital from large stock offerings that dilute existing shares. (Citigroup is now the most widely held U.S. stock, with 28 billion shares outstanding.)

Berkowitz has had a stellar stock-picking record in the past ten years. His Fairholme fund has posted gains of 13.2% a year on average for the past decade. The value-oriented manager made bets on energy up until oil's fall in 2008. He also presciently avoided financials for several years before the meltdown because many of their holdings didn't make sense to him.

If his call is correct, it wouldn't be the first time Berkowitz has profited from a bank crisis. In the late 1980s, he bought Wells Fargo after the bank had made bad bets on risky real estate loans in California. The stock gained more than 400% from 1990 to 1997.

Berkowitz says it took him longer to buy bank stocks after the most recent crisis because Citi and others held so many opaque derivatives. Now he feels comfortable that regulators and Citi have at least identified the bad assets, and the bank is working to sell them.

"It's unclear to me how much our shareholders are going to make," says Berkowitz, "but it's becoming quite clear to me they're not going to lose."