Saturday, November 24, 2012

24 Nov

Aim:

try 2 MA and 5 MA

How to manage my time effectively ?

Train myself to accept discipline, simple life, peace at heart, hard work, focus and perseverance.

Sleep by 10.45pm.



Focus - no distraction



control GERD


Memorise One Bible verse per day. 

Diet

Exercise 



Pumping


Dumbbell curl

Reverse Dips

Free Squat

Leg Raises

patient is the most overlook

christian book on calm and expect less

Qigong breathing exercise all the times

No Gossip, No meddle on other people business


做一个心平气和的人 - Live in Peace, not excitement


More choices


Positive self talk

gamblers lost money due to increasing the betting amount, because the probability is always the same, so cannot have poor money management, money management is most vital, don't suddenly up the bet, no logic.



learn from Uncle Lim more, but don't follow blindly, use my creativity to create new method.





value, what value you can offer, what value people see in you, what value people attract to you. to avoid disappointment, don't expect too much from others.



I am doing very important task now, Forex !

How to find a motivation factor ?????

Faith:

want perfection ? stupid, no perfection in this world, looking for stress and trouble, open the heart and accept anythings, be kind to yourself and others, be open don't sad and angry, take it easy.


love come from heart, feeling, don't come from talk, feel the love.


Emotion must use heart to feel not by speech

don't expect too much from others, lower your expectation on others. but have to set very high standard for myself. then I will strive hard to achieve it. because I can't control others, but I can control myself.


Finance:

in Forex when a sharp trend stop, careful and run.

“Control Your Own Destiny or Someone Else Will” 

forgot about magic numbers or trend or streak, it is totally randomly independent, if you believe in it, it will destroy you.


in Roulette, if the luck is bad, stop after one loss, then try again, if lose again, stop again, try third times if lose again, stop again. don't force.

Discipline & Self Control

One block

my strategy is (stop after any lose)

bet $10 each on Roulette, if win (65% winning chance) +10

bet $10 each on Roulette, if win (44% winning chance) +10

bet $20 on baccarat if win (50% winning chance) +20

bet $20 on baccarat if win (25% winning chance) +20

when win $100, stop. 
then start another block again, this time the target is lower to $50. If have time (weekend, Holiday), third target is $30.




Lessons:

not worth to hang on the contract for short term scalping trade, have profits must run.

no profits must hold.

must find money magt method for casino and forex, examples:
$10 x 2 = $20, then roulette bet $10 x2 and baccarat bet $20 per bet,
if roulette bet $20 x 2 = $40, then baccarat bet $40 per bet

for forex must find a trading amount, per how many contracts for every trade , what amount to take profits ???? when to run ???? must decide with strategy.

don't assume, just follow the chart.

follow long term plan better.


forex, don't rush in with additional contracts, wait for the right time, must study and learn and find out the timing to enter ????? don't rush in ????


for scalping, don't greedy.


which one is better, baccarat or roulette ????base on odds ?

baccarat, study the the money mgt and betting amount and betting frequency ????


draw lines for top middle and bottom, then bet accordingly. high range sell, middle trade, bottom buy.

Health:



Attachments:

With buyers and sellers from all corners of the globe participating in trillions of dollars of trades each and every day, the forex market is a true global marketplace. The fact that foreign exchange trading has become such a globalized activity means that macroeconomic events play an even greater role in forex than ever before. Here we will discuss some economic trends and events that those new to forex should be aware of. (For more information, check out our Guide To Forex Currencies.) TUTORIAL: The Most Important Forex Trading Rules

The Role of Macroeconomics in Forex
The forex market is primarily driven by overarching macroeconomic factors that influence the decisions of the traders who ultimately decide the value of a currency at any given point in time. The economic health of a nation's economy is an important factor in the value of its currency. Overall economic health, however, is shaped by numerous economic events and information that may change on a daily basis, contributing to the (nearly) 24/7 nature of the international foreign exchange market. Let's take a closer look at some of the factors that influence an economy's standing and drive changes in the value of its currency.
Capital Markets
The global capital markets are perhaps the most visible indicators of an economy's health. Stock and bond markets are the most noticeable markets in the world. With constant media coverage and up-to-the-second information on the dealings of corporations, institutions and government entities, there is not much public information that the capital markets miss. A wide rally or sell-off of securities originating from one country or another should be a clear signal that the future outlook (short term or long term) for that economy has changed in investors' eyes.

Similarly, many economies are sector driven, such as Canada's heavily commodity-based market. In this case, the Canadian dollar is heavily correlated to the movements of commodities such as crude oil and metals. A rally in oil prices would likely lead to the appreciation of the loonie relative to other currencies. Commodity traders, like forex traders, rely heavily on economic data for their trades, so in many cases, the same economic data will have a direct affect on both markets. (For more on this correlation, see How To Trade Currency And Commodity Correlations.)

Moreover, the bond markets are critical to what is happening in the forex market, since both fixed income securities and currencies are rely heavily on interest rates. Movements in Treasuries are a first level factor in movements in currencies, meaning that a change in yields will directly affect currency values. Because of how closely tied the two markets are, it is important to understand how bonds - and government bonds especially - are valued in order to excel as a forex trader.

International Trade
Another key factor is balance of trade levels and trends between nations. The trade levels between nations serve as a proxy for the relative demand of goods from a nation. A nation with goods or services that are in high demand internationally will typically see an appreciation of its currency. For example, in order to purchase goods from Australia, buyers must convert their currency into Australian dollars (AUD) to make the purchase. The increased demand for the AUD will put upward pressure on it.
Trade surpluses and deficits exemplify a nation's competitive standing in international trade. Countries with a large trade deficit are net buyers/importers of international goods, resulting in more of their currency being sold to purchase other nations' currencies in order to pay for the international goods. This type of situation is likely to have a negative impact on the value of an importing country's currency.

Political Conditions
The political landscape of a nation plays a major role in the economic outlook for that country and, consequently, the perceived value of its currency. Forex traders are constantly monitoring political news and events to gauge what moves, if any, a country's government may take in the economy. These can include measures from increasing government spending to tightening restrictions on a particular sector or industry.

An upcoming election is always a major event for currency markets, as exchange rates will often react more favorably to parties with fiscally responsible platforms and governments willing to pursue economic growth.

The fiscal and monetary policies of any government are the most important factors in its economic decision making. Central bank decisions that impact interest rates are keenly watched by the forex market for any changes in key rates or future outlooks. (For a closer look into monetary policy, see How The U.S. Government Formulates Monetary Policy.)

Economic Releases
Economic reports are the backbone of a forex trader's playbook. Maintaining an economic report calendar is crucial to staying current in this ultra-fast paced marketplace. GDP may be the most obvious economic report, as it is the baseline of a country's economic performance and strength. GDP measures the total output of goods and services produced within an economy. One key thing to remember, however, is that GDP is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reports on events and trends that have already occurred.

Inflation is also a very important indicator as it sends a signal as to increasing price levels and falling purchasing power. However, inflation is a double-edged sword, as many view it as placing downward pressure on a currency due to the retreating purchasing power. On the other hand, it can also lead to currency appreciation as it may force central bankers to increase rates in order to curb rising inflation levels. Inflation is a hotly contested issue amongst economists and its effects on currencies is never black and white.
Other reports such as employment levels, retail sales, manufacturing indexes and capacity utilization also carry important information on the current and forecasted strength of an economy and its currency.

Bottom LineThe biggest thing that should be taken from this article is that the forex market is ultimately driven by economic factors that, in turn, are indicators of a country's economic strength. The economic outlook for a country is the most important determinant of its currency's value, so knowing the factors and indicators to watch will help you keep pace in the competitive and fast-moving world of forex.


Think Like Warren Buffett

Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy.provided by: Investopedia

1. Think of Stocks as a Business
Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.
Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.
That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.
2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies.
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.
Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?
3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover
Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.
The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.
Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.
4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks
While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.
Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.
5. Learn to Think in Probabilities
Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.
Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.
Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.
6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing
Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.
More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."
Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.
7. Ignore Market Forecasts
There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.
On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.
In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.
8. Wait for the Fat Pitch
Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.
Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.
Bottom Line
"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.


Fundamental Factors That Affect Currency Values

Justin Kuepper
Those trading in the foreign-exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?
More from Investopedia.com: 

• In Pictures: Top 10 Forex Trading Rules

• In Pictures: Break Into Forex In 12 Steps

• The Greatest Currency Trades Ever Made
Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency.
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country's economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country's economic health is directly measured, but do remember that a great deal of factors and policies will affect a nation's economic performance.
These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation's economy has improved or declined. The effects of these reports are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.
You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive little coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose, and can be useful. Here we outline four major reports, some of which are comparable to particular fundamental indicators used by equity investors:
  1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.

  1. Retail Sales
The retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful because it is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators, and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly traded company.
  1. Industrial Production
This report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also reports their 'capacity utilizations', the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used. It is ideal for a nation to see an increase of production while being at its maximum or near maximum capacity utilization.
Traders using this indicator are usually concerned with utility production, which can be extremely volatile since the utilities industry, and in turn the trading of and demand for energy, is heavily affected by changes in weather. Significant revisions between reports can be caused by weather changes, which in turn, can cause volatility in the nation's currency.
  1. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories. This report, when compared to a nation's exports, can be used to see if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however, to monitor the exports - it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices of exports often change relative to a currency's strength or weakness.
Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts. And don't forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders, if used properly.
So, How Are These Used?
Since economic indicators gauge a country's economic state, changes in the conditions reported will therefore directly affect the price and volume of a country's currency. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the indicators discussed above are not the only things that affect a currency's price. There are third-party reports, technical factors, and many other things that also can drastically affect a currency's valuation.
Here are a few useful tips that may help you when conducting fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market:
  1. Keep an economic calendar on hand that lists the indicators and when they are due to be released. Also, keep an eye on the future; often markets will move in anticipation of a certain indicator or report due to be released at a later time.
  2. Be informed about the economic indicators that are capturing most of the market's attention at any given time. Such indicators are catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak, inflation is often one of the most watched indicators.
  3. Know the market expectations for the data, and then pay attention to whether or not the expectations are met. That is far more important than the data itself. Occasionally, there is a drastic difference between the expectations and actual results and, if there is, be aware of the possible justifications for this difference.
  4. Don't react too quickly to the news. Oftentimes, numbers are released and then revised, and things can change quickly. Pay attention to these revisions, as they may be a useful tool for seeing the trends and reacting more accurately to future reports.
Conclusion
There are many economic indicators, and even more private reports that can be used to evaluate the fundamentals of forex. It's important to take the time to not only look at the numbers, but also understand what they mean and how they affect a nation's economy. When properly used, these indicators can be an invaluable resource for any currency trader.

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