有“华尔街独狼”之称的杰西·利维摩尔先后四次破产，在大崩盘时期他的财富达到最高峰，达到上亿美元，不过，在大萧条结束后的1934年他第四次破产后就再没能恢复之前的状况。
他认为，市场大波动才能替你赚大钱。在多头市场中追涨领涨股才能赚大钱，并避开疲软的行业以及那些行业中疲软的股票。如果某只股票的表现异常突出，同一股群的一些股票也会有不错的表现。
宝贵的操作心得
利维摩尔曾经说过“华尔街不曾变过。口袋变了，股票变了，华尔街却从来没变，因为人性没变。”正因为如此，职业交易者的利维摩尔的经验教训也可以为中国的投资者提供参考和借鉴。
利维摩尔从不关心明牌（内幕消息），而是专注研究价格和走势，因此也有“华尔街独狼”之称。他非常关注领涨股群体的走势，正是发现领涨股群体出现滞涨，使得他成功研判1907年和1929年的市场头部，并反手做空，大赚一笔。他会集中全力操作多头市场中的领涨股，避开疲软的行业以及那些行业中疲软的股票。也就是说，他不买便宜的股票，反而会追涨（这有点像我国一些投资者习惯的“右侧交易”）。如果某只股票的表现异常突出，同一股群的一些股票也会有不错的表现。他相信，某一股群中的大部分股票，后市展望相同。领涨股的走势一开始逆转，就应该提高警觉，因为其它股票往往会陆续跟进。
利维摩尔相信，市场会提前反应未来的变化。这正是难以准确预测市场将来会做什么事的原因。市场总是做它想做的事，不做交易人期望它做的事。所以说，他在多头市场中作多，在空头市场中放空。他以自己的亲身经验证实，没有一个人能够抓住所有的起伏，大波动才能替你赚大钱。市场如果横向整理，预测下一个波动是往上或往下毫无意义。应该做的事情是观察市场，解读大盘，判定窄幅振荡价格的上下限，决定在价格突破任何方向的限制之前，不采取任何行动。“每当我失去耐心，不是等待关键点到来的时机，而是胡乱交易企图快快获利的时候，就总是赔钱。”也因此，利维摩尔通常会使用试探性策略。
利维摩尔的试探性操作策略是先建立一部分的股票部位，直到买足他起初打算拥有的全部股数。在他实际着手买进之前，会决定好到底要买多少股，这是利维摩尔的重要守则之一。他会先建立一个小部位，以观察自己初步的研究是否正确。如果他已经确定好要买某只股票500股，他会先买进原始计划仓位的五分之一，也就是100股。如果股价走势对他不利，他会把那些股票卖掉，承受一点小损失。要是股价游移不定达数天之久，他也会出场，因为股价的表现不如他原先所想。如果股价上涨，他会再买。“在第一笔交易后，除非第一笔出现利润，否则别做第二笔。要等待和观察。很多事情成功与否，要看是否在完全正确的时机开始。”这也是他花费高昂代价学到的教训之一。
精彩语句
有一种人是股市傻瓜，这种人认为他们随时都要交易。没有人能够一直拥有适当的理由，每天都买卖股票——也没有人拥有足够的知识，能够每次都高明地操作。
有人说凡事都有两面，但是股市只有一面，不是多头的一面或空头的一面，而是正确的一面。
投机客要是能够学到什么事情让他不自大，付任何代价都不算太高。一些聪明人的很多严重失败都可以归因于自大，自大在任何地方，对任何人来说，都是昂贵的疾病，在华尔街尤其如此。
价格像所有其他的事情一样，会沿着抵抗力最小的路线进行。如果上涨的阻力比下跌的阻力小，价格就会上涨，反之亦然……我只是去了解价格最可能移动的方向。我也用额外的测试，检讨我自己的交易，以便决定重要的心里时刻。在我开始操作之后，我是用观察价格行为的方式来做这一点。
在所有错误的投机行为中，没有比设法摊平亏损的操作还愚蠢。你总是要卖掉让你亏损的交易，保留已经有利润的操作，这样才明智。
一个人要是想靠这个游戏（指交易股票和期货）过活，就必须相信自己和自己的判断。如果我根据老张的明牌买股票，我必须根据老张的消息卖这些股票。如果卖出的时间来到时，老张去度假怎么办。不行的，先生，没有人能靠别人告诉他要怎么赚大钱。
观察、经验、记忆和数学——这些就是成功交易者必须依靠的事情。他不但必须观察精确，还要随时记住所观察到的一切。他不能赌不合理性或不能预期的事情……他必须始终根据可能性来下赌注——也就是尝试预测可能性。
Sunday, September 6, 2009
一个赌王的成功启示录.炒股和赌博的道理相通
如果有人说，给我十万元，我可以每年从美国赌城拉斯韦加斯赚回十几万甚至几十万元。这话你信吗？
有个朋友，就曾向我讲起过这样一位“赌王”的故事：
他是台湾某知名大公司的现任总裁。每年以十万美元作本,几乎每月都要去拉斯韦加斯“豪赌”一周，且只玩一种游戏---“BlackJack”（俗称“21点”）。
先看看游戏规则：
1、从一副扣除王牌的扑克中，按照先闲家（即赌客）后庄家的顺序每人发二张牌，A可作1点，也可作11点，J、Q、K均为10点，余者皆以牌面点数为准。将手中牌点相加，即为总点数。如总点数不足21点，任何一家均有权补牌。补牌一次一张，次数不限。当任意一家总点数大于21点时，称为“爆牌”，自动认输。如果闲家总点数大于庄家，即为闲家胜，反之则庄家胜。总点数相等视为平局，无胜负；
2、 每盘发牌前，闲家必须押一定数额的“筹码”（即赌资），庄家默认押与各闲家分别相等的筹码；
3、 闲家前二张若拿到20点以上(即A、10、J、Q、K)，可将其分拆成二副牌，同时要求补牌。若二副牌的总点数均大于庄家，赢二倍筹码；反之则输二倍。一胜一负，视为平局；
4、 庄家小于或等于16点，必须补牌。闲家自愿；
5、 每张牌桌上，庄家最多面对七个闲家。当庄家与闲家分别拿到二张牌后，由闲家按顺序先行决定是否补第三张牌，然后庄家再根据自己的总点数是否小于或等于16点进行补牌。如果闲家补第三张后已经“爆牌”，其筹码归庄家所有，而不受庄家第三张是否“爆牌”的影响。
再来看“赌王”的玩法：
1、 计划：每晚下赌场，按事先的计划携带赌资，或二万，或三、五万，决不临时追加；
2、 方法：
（1）“赢得起输不起”。其具体含义为：将三盘分为一组。以所带资金二万元为例，第一盘压二百元，若负，第二盘再压二百元，再负，第三盘仍为二百元，还负，则以相同方法开始第二组。
若首盘胜，第二盘将所赢二百元一并压出（共四百元），再胜，将八百元再压，仍胜，则第一组结束。重新以二百元开始第二组。
总之，无论哪一盘胜出，均将所赢筹码压至下一盘，直至本组结束。
（且听“赌王”的解释：绝大多数玩家的心理都是“输得起赢不起”，也就是说，首盘输二百元，第二盘压四百，再输，压六百(或八百)。总希望一次翻盘，捞回所有损失，而毫无风险控制意识。相反，首盘若赢二百，则次局将本收回，仍压二百，再赢，再二百，总想保住胜利果实。可见，输时赌注是放大的，而赢时是相等的---典型的“输得起赢不起”。这样做的结果，大多是小赢后不肯收手，输光后一走了之，并留下一句“不过是玩玩”的自我心理安慰。因此，若想赢，先要控制风险，做到“赢得起输不起”，胜券已一半在手。）；
（2）12点以上（含12点）决不补牌；
（“赌王”的解释：小于或等于16点必须补牌的规则对庄家非常不利，补出从6-K的“爆牌”机会太大了。拿12点不补，更多的时候庄家已经“爆”在你前面。既然12点可胜，与21点胜出有何区别？多数人之所以拿到15点还要补牌，或因不了解规则，或因贪心不足，结果“爆”在庄家前面。）；
（3）10、J、Q、K、A任意二张组合绝不分拆，但二张A则坚决拆开。
（“赌王”解释：20点几乎肯定胜出，何必将“到手的鸭子”拆成二副去寻贪心？二张A或等于2点，或等于22点，所以必须拆开。）
3、 纪律：无论时间长短，胜负额达到计划资金的50%时一定休息。若始终达不到此限， 则以时间为准。
依照上述几条看似简单的基本招数，十余年来，“赌王”几乎每年都会赢回十几万（有时甚至几十万）美元，并于1996年获得拉斯韦加斯实战“亚军”的称号。为鼓励其光临，赌城常年为其免费保留一套“总统套房”。
股市并非赌场，二者其“理”不同，但其“道”相通。仔细分析一下“赌王”的成功经验，会使我们股市中人得到许多有益的启示：
启示一：树立正确的工作态度。
“赌王”说，赌场中人，或为“暴利”，或为“游玩”，或为“碰运气”，都有一种游戏心理，而我是来工作的。此话令人汗颜，却也言之成理。有了正确的工作态度，才会有工作计划、工作方法、工作纪律以及对待工作的刻苦钻研精神。倘若一个人对业务一无所知或一知半解，整日以上司或同事的话作为自己的工作原则，则注定不会有事业的成功。在股市，此理亦然。当我们成天围着专家、股评家的指挥捧乱转时，我们已丢掉了“计划”、“方法”和“纪律”，也丢掉了自己的思 考；当我们为某个传闻中的“业绩”而“一赌明天”，为某条虚无飘渺的“消息”而“放手一搏”，为某项看似利好的政策而“孤注一掷”时，我们已没有了“态度 ”。从“一赌”、“一搏”、“一掷”间，我们看到了差距：一个以工作的态度对待赌博，一个以赌博的心态对待投资，两者的境界异如天壤。
启示二：建立自己的“市场观”。
这里的所谓“市场观”，既包括对于股市规律的认识，对于经济、政策面的理解，也包括具体的操作方法。这其中，对规律的认识最为重要。只有在充分认识股市规律的基础上，我们对各项技术指标、技术参数的研究才有意义，操作方法才行之有效。
例如，简单说来，股市中赢钱的方法只有一种，那就是“低买高卖”，同理，亏损的方法也只有一种，即“高买低卖”。这是规律，是原则，违背了这一条，任何“技术”都将彻底失败。
同样的规律还有“不与趋势作对”、“有涨必有落”，“物极必反”等。承认并尊重这些规律，进而不断研究何为“趋势”、何为“高”、“低”，何为“物极”，才能逐渐形成自己的操作方法。有人说，与其费时费力自己钻研，不如多 听听专家们的意见，所谓“兼听则明”嘛。此话并非全无道理。但是不要忘记，“兼听则明”是有条件的：只有首先具备自己的价值观，兼听才“明”，否则便是“盲听”。
启示三：学会“止盈止损”。
“赌王”说得好：进入赌场的人，大都有过赢钱的经历，之所以多数人赔钱，皆因不懂得何时收手。此话对于股民，同样适用。“收手”，就是“止盈止损”。我们常听人说，一个不懂得止损（“割肉”）的股民不是成熟的股民。其原因，就在于在一个单边做多机制的市场中，“止损”是我们唯一能够有效控制风险的“利器 ”。有“武器”而不用，失败自然怪不得别人。
笔者朋友，曾亲眼目睹身边一位同伴在“一张牌赌大小”的赌局中，以“加倍压筹”的方法连压十四副“小”，竟然全部告负，结果当场将身上的所有信用卡“打爆”，输掉十几万港元。由此可见，如果我们没有“输不起”的意识，总是以有限的资金不断“补仓”，试图降低成本，其结果往往是当“底部”真正来临时，我们已没有了机会。因此，笔者的建议是：当我们开始想到“以后可以再‘补仓’”时，请选择“止损”。
相对于“止损”而言，学会“止盈”，是我们走向成熟的更重要的一步。因为“止盈”要求我们必须跨越更大的心理障碍，即适时克服人性中的“贪”字。股市中人，皆为利来，不“贪”是不可能的。但是，万事皆有“度”，“贪得无厌”便是“无度”的表现，最终必然自食其果。我们应当记住：“贪”字何解？“今”“贝 ”是也。“今天的宝贝”不会永远价值连城，这是自然辩证法。
笔者有一位旅居美国的朋友，1999年纳斯达克大炒网络股时，手中的十余只股票最少涨五倍，多数涨到十余倍。但一年后，所有股票竟全线套牢。这便是不懂得及时“止盈”的缘故。其实，无论长期投资也好，短线投机也罢，总会有兑现利润的一天。尤其在我们这个投机远大于投资的市场上，“止盈”的意义就更为重大。
启示四：严守纪律并养成良好的心态。
一次，“赌王”携十万美元下场，没想到“鸿运当头”，短短的30分钟里竟赢到5万元。于是，“赌王”按纪律收手，回房间洗澡、看电视，去大厅聊天、喝咖啡。在此，我们不能不对“赌王”的严守纪律和良好心态大加赞赏。涉足风险市场，纪律是我们保护自己的最有效武器。没有纪律不行，没有良好的心态同样不行。纪律与心态密切相关。有纪律而无正确的心态，纪律便无法执行。心态好而无纪律，肯定是我们与钱有仇。想想有多少次，我们丧失掉纪律，因而短线变长线，盈利变亏损；又有多少次我们心浮气躁贸然入市，结果落得伤痕累累，我们就会明白原来亏损的部分原因竟在我们自己。
启示五：培育特立独行的品格。
我们都知道，犹太人有个著名的“二八定律”，意思是说无论各行各业，成功者永远只占十分之二，而多数人则属于默默无闻者。若将成功者再做进一步划分，则更有成就者的比例仍然是2：8。
由此可见，成功者一定具备某种与众不同的品格，这种品格就是我们说的“特立独行”。培育这样的品格，并非要我们处处与人作对，事事与人不同，别人低买高卖赚钱，我们高买低卖也赚钱，那不是特立独行，而是黑色幽默（暗箱操作除外）。
真正的特立独行，要求我们在学会独立思考、尊重规律的基础上，具有排除一切干扰按照自己的操作方法独立行事的勇气。没有这样的勇气，没有“敢为天下先”的精神，其它的一切努力都会付诸东流。“赌王”之所以能够“以工作的态度对待赌博”，能够“赢得起输不起”，能够“12点以上不补牌”，能够适时收手，都是其“独行品格”的最好表现。
当然，“赌王”的故事，其启发意义并不止于此。每个人依照其认识不同，经历不同，体会也自不同。但无论怎样，“明”者，从自己的失败中吸取教训；“智”者，从他人的成功中摄取营养，当我们真正“明智”起来，我们的路会越走越宽，越走越远……
有个朋友，就曾向我讲起过这样一位“赌王”的故事：
他是台湾某知名大公司的现任总裁。每年以十万美元作本,几乎每月都要去拉斯韦加斯“豪赌”一周，且只玩一种游戏---“BlackJack”（俗称“21点”）。
先看看游戏规则：
1、从一副扣除王牌的扑克中，按照先闲家（即赌客）后庄家的顺序每人发二张牌，A可作1点，也可作11点，J、Q、K均为10点，余者皆以牌面点数为准。将手中牌点相加，即为总点数。如总点数不足21点，任何一家均有权补牌。补牌一次一张，次数不限。当任意一家总点数大于21点时，称为“爆牌”，自动认输。如果闲家总点数大于庄家，即为闲家胜，反之则庄家胜。总点数相等视为平局，无胜负；
2、 每盘发牌前，闲家必须押一定数额的“筹码”（即赌资），庄家默认押与各闲家分别相等的筹码；
3、 闲家前二张若拿到20点以上(即A、10、J、Q、K)，可将其分拆成二副牌，同时要求补牌。若二副牌的总点数均大于庄家，赢二倍筹码；反之则输二倍。一胜一负，视为平局；
4、 庄家小于或等于16点，必须补牌。闲家自愿；
5、 每张牌桌上，庄家最多面对七个闲家。当庄家与闲家分别拿到二张牌后，由闲家按顺序先行决定是否补第三张牌，然后庄家再根据自己的总点数是否小于或等于16点进行补牌。如果闲家补第三张后已经“爆牌”，其筹码归庄家所有，而不受庄家第三张是否“爆牌”的影响。
再来看“赌王”的玩法：
1、 计划：每晚下赌场，按事先的计划携带赌资，或二万，或三、五万，决不临时追加；
2、 方法：
（1）“赢得起输不起”。其具体含义为：将三盘分为一组。以所带资金二万元为例，第一盘压二百元，若负，第二盘再压二百元，再负，第三盘仍为二百元，还负，则以相同方法开始第二组。
若首盘胜，第二盘将所赢二百元一并压出（共四百元），再胜，将八百元再压，仍胜，则第一组结束。重新以二百元开始第二组。
总之，无论哪一盘胜出，均将所赢筹码压至下一盘，直至本组结束。
（且听“赌王”的解释：绝大多数玩家的心理都是“输得起赢不起”，也就是说，首盘输二百元，第二盘压四百，再输，压六百(或八百)。总希望一次翻盘，捞回所有损失，而毫无风险控制意识。相反，首盘若赢二百，则次局将本收回，仍压二百，再赢，再二百，总想保住胜利果实。可见，输时赌注是放大的，而赢时是相等的---典型的“输得起赢不起”。这样做的结果，大多是小赢后不肯收手，输光后一走了之，并留下一句“不过是玩玩”的自我心理安慰。因此，若想赢，先要控制风险，做到“赢得起输不起”，胜券已一半在手。）；
（2）12点以上（含12点）决不补牌；
（“赌王”的解释：小于或等于16点必须补牌的规则对庄家非常不利，补出从6-K的“爆牌”机会太大了。拿12点不补，更多的时候庄家已经“爆”在你前面。既然12点可胜，与21点胜出有何区别？多数人之所以拿到15点还要补牌，或因不了解规则，或因贪心不足，结果“爆”在庄家前面。）；
（3）10、J、Q、K、A任意二张组合绝不分拆，但二张A则坚决拆开。
（“赌王”解释：20点几乎肯定胜出，何必将“到手的鸭子”拆成二副去寻贪心？二张A或等于2点，或等于22点，所以必须拆开。）
3、 纪律：无论时间长短，胜负额达到计划资金的50%时一定休息。若始终达不到此限， 则以时间为准。
依照上述几条看似简单的基本招数，十余年来，“赌王”几乎每年都会赢回十几万（有时甚至几十万）美元，并于1996年获得拉斯韦加斯实战“亚军”的称号。为鼓励其光临，赌城常年为其免费保留一套“总统套房”。
股市并非赌场，二者其“理”不同，但其“道”相通。仔细分析一下“赌王”的成功经验，会使我们股市中人得到许多有益的启示：
启示一：树立正确的工作态度。
“赌王”说，赌场中人，或为“暴利”，或为“游玩”，或为“碰运气”，都有一种游戏心理，而我是来工作的。此话令人汗颜，却也言之成理。有了正确的工作态度，才会有工作计划、工作方法、工作纪律以及对待工作的刻苦钻研精神。倘若一个人对业务一无所知或一知半解，整日以上司或同事的话作为自己的工作原则，则注定不会有事业的成功。在股市，此理亦然。当我们成天围着专家、股评家的指挥捧乱转时，我们已丢掉了“计划”、“方法”和“纪律”，也丢掉了自己的思 考；当我们为某个传闻中的“业绩”而“一赌明天”，为某条虚无飘渺的“消息”而“放手一搏”，为某项看似利好的政策而“孤注一掷”时，我们已没有了“态度 ”。从“一赌”、“一搏”、“一掷”间，我们看到了差距：一个以工作的态度对待赌博，一个以赌博的心态对待投资，两者的境界异如天壤。
启示二：建立自己的“市场观”。
这里的所谓“市场观”，既包括对于股市规律的认识，对于经济、政策面的理解，也包括具体的操作方法。这其中，对规律的认识最为重要。只有在充分认识股市规律的基础上，我们对各项技术指标、技术参数的研究才有意义，操作方法才行之有效。
例如，简单说来，股市中赢钱的方法只有一种，那就是“低买高卖”，同理，亏损的方法也只有一种，即“高买低卖”。这是规律，是原则，违背了这一条，任何“技术”都将彻底失败。
同样的规律还有“不与趋势作对”、“有涨必有落”，“物极必反”等。承认并尊重这些规律，进而不断研究何为“趋势”、何为“高”、“低”，何为“物极”，才能逐渐形成自己的操作方法。有人说，与其费时费力自己钻研，不如多 听听专家们的意见，所谓“兼听则明”嘛。此话并非全无道理。但是不要忘记，“兼听则明”是有条件的：只有首先具备自己的价值观，兼听才“明”，否则便是“盲听”。
启示三：学会“止盈止损”。
“赌王”说得好：进入赌场的人，大都有过赢钱的经历，之所以多数人赔钱，皆因不懂得何时收手。此话对于股民，同样适用。“收手”，就是“止盈止损”。我们常听人说，一个不懂得止损（“割肉”）的股民不是成熟的股民。其原因，就在于在一个单边做多机制的市场中，“止损”是我们唯一能够有效控制风险的“利器 ”。有“武器”而不用，失败自然怪不得别人。
笔者朋友，曾亲眼目睹身边一位同伴在“一张牌赌大小”的赌局中，以“加倍压筹”的方法连压十四副“小”，竟然全部告负，结果当场将身上的所有信用卡“打爆”，输掉十几万港元。由此可见，如果我们没有“输不起”的意识，总是以有限的资金不断“补仓”，试图降低成本，其结果往往是当“底部”真正来临时，我们已没有了机会。因此，笔者的建议是：当我们开始想到“以后可以再‘补仓’”时，请选择“止损”。
相对于“止损”而言，学会“止盈”，是我们走向成熟的更重要的一步。因为“止盈”要求我们必须跨越更大的心理障碍，即适时克服人性中的“贪”字。股市中人，皆为利来，不“贪”是不可能的。但是，万事皆有“度”，“贪得无厌”便是“无度”的表现，最终必然自食其果。我们应当记住：“贪”字何解？“今”“贝 ”是也。“今天的宝贝”不会永远价值连城，这是自然辩证法。
笔者有一位旅居美国的朋友，1999年纳斯达克大炒网络股时，手中的十余只股票最少涨五倍，多数涨到十余倍。但一年后，所有股票竟全线套牢。这便是不懂得及时“止盈”的缘故。其实，无论长期投资也好，短线投机也罢，总会有兑现利润的一天。尤其在我们这个投机远大于投资的市场上，“止盈”的意义就更为重大。
启示四：严守纪律并养成良好的心态。
一次，“赌王”携十万美元下场，没想到“鸿运当头”，短短的30分钟里竟赢到5万元。于是，“赌王”按纪律收手，回房间洗澡、看电视，去大厅聊天、喝咖啡。在此，我们不能不对“赌王”的严守纪律和良好心态大加赞赏。涉足风险市场，纪律是我们保护自己的最有效武器。没有纪律不行，没有良好的心态同样不行。纪律与心态密切相关。有纪律而无正确的心态，纪律便无法执行。心态好而无纪律，肯定是我们与钱有仇。想想有多少次，我们丧失掉纪律，因而短线变长线，盈利变亏损；又有多少次我们心浮气躁贸然入市，结果落得伤痕累累，我们就会明白原来亏损的部分原因竟在我们自己。
启示五：培育特立独行的品格。
我们都知道，犹太人有个著名的“二八定律”，意思是说无论各行各业，成功者永远只占十分之二，而多数人则属于默默无闻者。若将成功者再做进一步划分，则更有成就者的比例仍然是2：8。
由此可见，成功者一定具备某种与众不同的品格，这种品格就是我们说的“特立独行”。培育这样的品格，并非要我们处处与人作对，事事与人不同，别人低买高卖赚钱，我们高买低卖也赚钱，那不是特立独行，而是黑色幽默（暗箱操作除外）。
真正的特立独行，要求我们在学会独立思考、尊重规律的基础上，具有排除一切干扰按照自己的操作方法独立行事的勇气。没有这样的勇气，没有“敢为天下先”的精神，其它的一切努力都会付诸东流。“赌王”之所以能够“以工作的态度对待赌博”，能够“赢得起输不起”，能够“12点以上不补牌”，能够适时收手，都是其“独行品格”的最好表现。
当然，“赌王”的故事，其启发意义并不止于此。每个人依照其认识不同，经历不同，体会也自不同。但无论怎样，“明”者，从自己的失败中吸取教训；“智”者，从他人的成功中摄取营养，当我们真正“明智”起来，我们的路会越走越宽，越走越远……
李彦宏：命运掌握在自己手中
命运是一个人一生所走完的路，是一个人用一辈子所完成的作业。有的人认为，命运是天注定的，是不可改变的。但在我看来，命运不过是人生的方向盘，驶往哪个方向它掌握在每个人自己的手中。
眼界与命运
和很多同学一样，我出生在一个小城市的普通工人家庭。小时候起，除了学习我的兴趣就非常广泛。戏曲就曾经一度是我的挚爱，甚至在初中时我还一度有报考戏曲学校的想法。因为在那个年代，在我生活的山西阳泉那个小城市，电视还没有普及，更别说电脑互联网了，人们日常最多的娱乐活动就是听戏。
后来，我的姐姐考上了北京大学。和刚刚入学的你们一样，她一时间也成了我们当地的明星。临走时她对我说：“其实外面的世界很美丽，所以你一定要好好学习，考上大学，走出阳泉，这样你未来的路才会更宽阔。”
我听从了姐姐的建议，从那时起我开始发奋学习，为的就是考上阳泉当地最好的高中 —— 阳泉一中。最终，我如愿以偿。然而，这时的我对于姐姐所说的 “ 外面的世界 ” 还没有特别的概念。
我第一次接触计算机，是在高中一年级，当时我所在的阳泉一中在全市第一个设立了计算机教室。
只要轻轻的在键盘上键入一些英文单词和符号，它就会根据指令给出答案，我一下子就被这奇妙的东西所吸引住了。从那时起，为了能到机房上机，我经常找老师软磨硬泡。比别人更多上机实践，也让我在计算机方面的技能比其他同学强。
不久以后，学校选派我到省会太原参加全国中学生计算机比赛。去之前我信心满满，总觉得自己的计算机水平还算不错，甚至还想着拿个名次回来。结果没想到，比赛结果出来，我连个三等奖也没得到。
这样的结果对我而言在某种程度上是一个打击。一开始我想不通，但是当我走进太原的书店时，我才知道为什么没有办法和他们竞争。我发现，这里有许多我在阳泉根本看不到的计算机方面的书，别人在信息的获取能力上比我有先天优势。
这次经历让我第一次感到了眼界与命运的关系，我对姐姐当时对我说的那番话有了更深层次的理解，我渴望到外面的世界看一看，我相信这样能改变命运。
在之后的近20年中，无论是在北大的求学经历，还是在美国学习计算机以及在华尔街和硅谷的工作经历，都大大开阔了我的视野，甚至对我后来创立百度公司也产生了巨大的影响。
所以，当你们迈入北京大学大门的那一刻起，你的命运已经改变了。不仅因为这里是中国的最高学府，还因为在这里你会接触到许多你原来从没有见过甚至听说过的新鲜事物。
性格与命运
虽然有人常说：“性格决定命运。”但实际上对于这样的说法，我个人并不认同。我觉得无论你的性格怎样，你都有可能成功。
几年前，高盛公司前总裁在清华大学开了一门关于领导力的课程，专门邀请一些大型跨国公司的全球CEO去讲课。有一次，我也被邀请去讲百度的成功故事。当我给学生们讲完课之后，他跟我聊天说： “ Robin，看你的性格和一般人眼中的成功人士或者说企业家很不一样，因为你的性格很柔和，没有那么强硬。可是你做的也很成功啊，而且我相信你将来会更加成功。 ”
作为高盛的总裁，他几乎见过当今世界上所有成功的企业家。而从他对我的评价来看，各种各样性格的人都有可能成功，只不过是看你有没有利用自己的性格优势来做事情。
比如说，有的人就是善于与人沟通，那就应该朝自己擅长的方向努力。他们非常愿意和客户沟通，也许未来就可以成为一名很好的销售人员，这样也会取得成功。
而有些人的性格则是那种比较内敛的，就像一个技术工程师，我的性格里可能这方面就更多一些，在思维上比较严谨，逻辑性比较强一些。我不太愿意天天出去跟人喝酒，而更多的是愿意坐在计算机前面去感受那些新的互联网的产品，去琢磨琢磨怎么样可以把它做得更好。
所以，我认为各种各样的性格都能够成功，关键是你要分析自己的实际情况来做一个判断，究竟自己的性格适合什么。上帝关上一扇门，一定会打开另一扇窗，每个人都应该去寻找适合自己的东西，做自己喜欢做的事情，做自己擅长做的事情，因为只有这样，你才能够坚持下去，你才能够在遇到困难的时候，不退缩、不轻易的去改变你的方向。我相信，做到这点，成功就会离你不远了，你的命运也会因此与众不同。
梦想与命运
有一句名言叫“梦想是人生路上的一盏明灯”。一个人想要成功，想要改变命运，有梦想是重要的。
在美国读研究生时，有一次，我报名参加了学校的一个研究小组。当时，负责面试的教授可能对我的回答他的答案不满意，便随口问我：“你是中国来的？”“你们中国有计算机吗？”。尽管可能不是有心刺伤我，但教授的问题让我的心里特别难受，我觉得怎么能这样问我，中国这么大的一个国家，而且那时已经是20世纪90年代了，怎么可能没计算机？这近似是对我祖国的一种羞辱。但也就是这么一句话，激发了我内心那股不服输的精神和一定要实现 “中国梦”的信念。从那时起，我就梦想有一天一定会用自己手中的技术改变国人的生活。
这也是我为什么放弃了在美国稳定的工作和安逸的生活回国创立百度公司的原因。
百度创立之初，一切都非常困难。我们在北大资源宾馆租了两个房间作为办公室，加上我，公司总共只有8个人。但尽管如此，大家都有一个共同的梦想，那就是做中国人自己的搜索引擎。
经过大家的共同努力，到了2001年底，与刚创业时相比，百度已经有了一定的发展。但此时我也认识到，百度如果想要在市场上有所突破，就必须超越当时已经在中国市场上占有6成份额的google。
2002年初，我组织了公司技术人员一起开了一个会。会上我告诉大家，我们必须在各项技术指标上全面超越竞争对手。当时，有的人认为这不可能，觉得百度的技术实力和国际最先进的搜索公司差距太大了。但我对他们说，百度虽然此时还十分弱小，在国际乃至国内都还不太知名，影响力有限，但是，百度凝聚了一批充满非凡理想和远大抱负的优秀人才，大家就是要在这里做出一番事业，让中国人在中文搜索引擎领域扬眉吐气。
于是，一个名为 “闪电计划”的15人技术攻关小组成立了。在那段时间里，我们的工程师为了一个共同的梦想与目标，把所有的精力都投入到了工作中。饿了就泡一包方便面，困了就干脆席地而睡，醒来以后继续工作。
其实，他们中的许多人当时完全有机会能够到IBM、微软等跨国公司工作并取得一份可观的收入，但他们却选择留在百度，拿着微薄的工资，没日没夜的工作。他们说是我的 “ 做中国人自己的搜索引擎 ” 的梦想感动了他们，而我也被他们所感动。
功夫不负有心人。一年下来，百度在索引量、相关性、中文处理的相关检索、拼音的检索、纠错技术等方面大大提高，众多指标领先业界，加上 “ 闪电计划 ” 后期启动的百度mp3搜索，对这个产品，用户体验评价非常高，迅速扩大了百度的知名度和品牌美誉度。百度作为全球最大中文搜索引擎的地位正是由此开始奠定的。
因此，我觉得每个人都应该心中有梦，有胸怀祖国的大志向，找到自己的梦想，认准了就去做，不跟风不动摇。同时，我们不仅仅要自己有梦想，你还应该用自己的梦想去感染和影响别人，因为成功者一定是用自己的梦想去点燃别人的梦想，是时刻播种梦想的人。
亲爱的同学们，困难并不可怕，只要你能乐观的面对；命运也可以改变，而钥匙就正握在你的手中。
眼界与命运
和很多同学一样，我出生在一个小城市的普通工人家庭。小时候起，除了学习我的兴趣就非常广泛。戏曲就曾经一度是我的挚爱，甚至在初中时我还一度有报考戏曲学校的想法。因为在那个年代，在我生活的山西阳泉那个小城市，电视还没有普及，更别说电脑互联网了，人们日常最多的娱乐活动就是听戏。
后来，我的姐姐考上了北京大学。和刚刚入学的你们一样，她一时间也成了我们当地的明星。临走时她对我说：“其实外面的世界很美丽，所以你一定要好好学习，考上大学，走出阳泉，这样你未来的路才会更宽阔。”
我听从了姐姐的建议，从那时起我开始发奋学习，为的就是考上阳泉当地最好的高中 —— 阳泉一中。最终，我如愿以偿。然而，这时的我对于姐姐所说的 “ 外面的世界 ” 还没有特别的概念。
我第一次接触计算机，是在高中一年级，当时我所在的阳泉一中在全市第一个设立了计算机教室。
只要轻轻的在键盘上键入一些英文单词和符号，它就会根据指令给出答案，我一下子就被这奇妙的东西所吸引住了。从那时起，为了能到机房上机，我经常找老师软磨硬泡。比别人更多上机实践，也让我在计算机方面的技能比其他同学强。
不久以后，学校选派我到省会太原参加全国中学生计算机比赛。去之前我信心满满，总觉得自己的计算机水平还算不错，甚至还想着拿个名次回来。结果没想到，比赛结果出来，我连个三等奖也没得到。
这样的结果对我而言在某种程度上是一个打击。一开始我想不通，但是当我走进太原的书店时，我才知道为什么没有办法和他们竞争。我发现，这里有许多我在阳泉根本看不到的计算机方面的书，别人在信息的获取能力上比我有先天优势。
这次经历让我第一次感到了眼界与命运的关系，我对姐姐当时对我说的那番话有了更深层次的理解，我渴望到外面的世界看一看，我相信这样能改变命运。
在之后的近20年中，无论是在北大的求学经历，还是在美国学习计算机以及在华尔街和硅谷的工作经历，都大大开阔了我的视野，甚至对我后来创立百度公司也产生了巨大的影响。
所以，当你们迈入北京大学大门的那一刻起，你的命运已经改变了。不仅因为这里是中国的最高学府，还因为在这里你会接触到许多你原来从没有见过甚至听说过的新鲜事物。
性格与命运
虽然有人常说：“性格决定命运。”但实际上对于这样的说法，我个人并不认同。我觉得无论你的性格怎样，你都有可能成功。
几年前，高盛公司前总裁在清华大学开了一门关于领导力的课程，专门邀请一些大型跨国公司的全球CEO去讲课。有一次，我也被邀请去讲百度的成功故事。当我给学生们讲完课之后，他跟我聊天说： “ Robin，看你的性格和一般人眼中的成功人士或者说企业家很不一样，因为你的性格很柔和，没有那么强硬。可是你做的也很成功啊，而且我相信你将来会更加成功。 ”
作为高盛的总裁，他几乎见过当今世界上所有成功的企业家。而从他对我的评价来看，各种各样性格的人都有可能成功，只不过是看你有没有利用自己的性格优势来做事情。
比如说，有的人就是善于与人沟通，那就应该朝自己擅长的方向努力。他们非常愿意和客户沟通，也许未来就可以成为一名很好的销售人员，这样也会取得成功。
而有些人的性格则是那种比较内敛的，就像一个技术工程师，我的性格里可能这方面就更多一些，在思维上比较严谨，逻辑性比较强一些。我不太愿意天天出去跟人喝酒，而更多的是愿意坐在计算机前面去感受那些新的互联网的产品，去琢磨琢磨怎么样可以把它做得更好。
所以，我认为各种各样的性格都能够成功，关键是你要分析自己的实际情况来做一个判断，究竟自己的性格适合什么。上帝关上一扇门，一定会打开另一扇窗，每个人都应该去寻找适合自己的东西，做自己喜欢做的事情，做自己擅长做的事情，因为只有这样，你才能够坚持下去，你才能够在遇到困难的时候，不退缩、不轻易的去改变你的方向。我相信，做到这点，成功就会离你不远了，你的命运也会因此与众不同。
梦想与命运
有一句名言叫“梦想是人生路上的一盏明灯”。一个人想要成功，想要改变命运，有梦想是重要的。
在美国读研究生时，有一次，我报名参加了学校的一个研究小组。当时，负责面试的教授可能对我的回答他的答案不满意，便随口问我：“你是中国来的？”“你们中国有计算机吗？”。尽管可能不是有心刺伤我，但教授的问题让我的心里特别难受，我觉得怎么能这样问我，中国这么大的一个国家，而且那时已经是20世纪90年代了，怎么可能没计算机？这近似是对我祖国的一种羞辱。但也就是这么一句话，激发了我内心那股不服输的精神和一定要实现 “中国梦”的信念。从那时起，我就梦想有一天一定会用自己手中的技术改变国人的生活。
这也是我为什么放弃了在美国稳定的工作和安逸的生活回国创立百度公司的原因。
百度创立之初，一切都非常困难。我们在北大资源宾馆租了两个房间作为办公室，加上我，公司总共只有8个人。但尽管如此，大家都有一个共同的梦想，那就是做中国人自己的搜索引擎。
经过大家的共同努力，到了2001年底，与刚创业时相比，百度已经有了一定的发展。但此时我也认识到，百度如果想要在市场上有所突破，就必须超越当时已经在中国市场上占有6成份额的google。
2002年初，我组织了公司技术人员一起开了一个会。会上我告诉大家，我们必须在各项技术指标上全面超越竞争对手。当时，有的人认为这不可能，觉得百度的技术实力和国际最先进的搜索公司差距太大了。但我对他们说，百度虽然此时还十分弱小，在国际乃至国内都还不太知名，影响力有限，但是，百度凝聚了一批充满非凡理想和远大抱负的优秀人才，大家就是要在这里做出一番事业，让中国人在中文搜索引擎领域扬眉吐气。
于是，一个名为 “闪电计划”的15人技术攻关小组成立了。在那段时间里，我们的工程师为了一个共同的梦想与目标，把所有的精力都投入到了工作中。饿了就泡一包方便面，困了就干脆席地而睡，醒来以后继续工作。
其实，他们中的许多人当时完全有机会能够到IBM、微软等跨国公司工作并取得一份可观的收入，但他们却选择留在百度，拿着微薄的工资，没日没夜的工作。他们说是我的 “ 做中国人自己的搜索引擎 ” 的梦想感动了他们，而我也被他们所感动。
功夫不负有心人。一年下来，百度在索引量、相关性、中文处理的相关检索、拼音的检索、纠错技术等方面大大提高，众多指标领先业界，加上 “ 闪电计划 ” 后期启动的百度mp3搜索，对这个产品，用户体验评价非常高，迅速扩大了百度的知名度和品牌美誉度。百度作为全球最大中文搜索引擎的地位正是由此开始奠定的。
因此，我觉得每个人都应该心中有梦，有胸怀祖国的大志向，找到自己的梦想，认准了就去做，不跟风不动摇。同时，我们不仅仅要自己有梦想，你还应该用自己的梦想去感染和影响别人，因为成功者一定是用自己的梦想去点燃别人的梦想，是时刻播种梦想的人。
亲爱的同学们，困难并不可怕，只要你能乐观的面对；命运也可以改变，而钥匙就正握在你的手中。
Saturday, September 5, 2009
四种食物可有效抑制肝胆结石
1.核桃阻止胆石生成：核桃含有丰富的压油酸，可以抑制体内胆固醇的形成，进而降低胆汁中胆固醇的浓度，故能阻止胆石的形成。核桃中还含有不饱和脂肪酸，可改善胆汁成分，有利于结石的排出。
2.生姜有较强利用作用：人体前列腺素分泌过多可导致胆汁中的粘蛋白增加，合成结石析出。而生姜能抑制前列腺素的合成，可相对减少胆汁中粘蛋白的形成，从而达到抑制肝胆结石的目的。
3.黑木耳使结石脱屑：黑木耳有促进消化系统中各种腺体分泌的特征，可润滑内、外胆管，分化、侵鉵结石，使结石不断脱屑缩小，经胆管排出。初发肝胆结石患者，每天坚持食1～2次黑木耳，疼痛、恶心、呕吐等症状可在短期内缓解，结石能在10天左右消失，对慢性坚固的结石，若长期坚持使用黑木耳，也可食结石变小。
4.南瓜能化结石：实践证明，南瓜抗胆结石作用上不可小视，早上喝两碗南瓜粥，粥内煮一个鸡蛋。中午吃几片蒸的南瓜或者炒南瓜当菜肴。晚上也喝南瓜粥，吃点馒头，喝杯牛奶，其他菜肴也可以照常吃，但用动物油炒的菜和油腻食物最好不吃。
2.生姜有较强利用作用：人体前列腺素分泌过多可导致胆汁中的粘蛋白增加，合成结石析出。而生姜能抑制前列腺素的合成，可相对减少胆汁中粘蛋白的形成，从而达到抑制肝胆结石的目的。
3.黑木耳使结石脱屑：黑木耳有促进消化系统中各种腺体分泌的特征，可润滑内、外胆管，分化、侵鉵结石，使结石不断脱屑缩小，经胆管排出。初发肝胆结石患者，每天坚持食1～2次黑木耳，疼痛、恶心、呕吐等症状可在短期内缓解，结石能在10天左右消失，对慢性坚固的结石，若长期坚持使用黑木耳，也可食结石变小。
4.南瓜能化结石：实践证明，南瓜抗胆结石作用上不可小视，早上喝两碗南瓜粥，粥内煮一个鸡蛋。中午吃几片蒸的南瓜或者炒南瓜当菜肴。晚上也喝南瓜粥，吃点馒头，喝杯牛奶，其他菜肴也可以照常吃，但用动物油炒的菜和油腻食物最好不吃。
肝胆结石患者吃酸味食品病情会加重
一般情况下，肝胆结石患者都有上腹部胀满、右胁下不适、纳差、口苦或口中无味等症状，大都想进食有滋味的特别是像葡萄、橘子、山楂、苹果这类有着明显酸味的水果以消除上述不佳感觉。亲朋好友常是买这类水果来探视病人，以期抚慰病人。事与愿违，肝胆结石患者进食这类水果后往往病情反而加重，腹部更加胀满，右胁下由不适转为疼痛，厌食甚至呕吐。胆总管结石的患者则会出现阻塞性黄疸以及由于胆管发炎而引起的发热现象。
究其原因，酸味水果正是由于其味酸，有着较强的收敛作用，它可使奥狄氏括约肌收缩，从而加重肝胆结石患者的胆汁郁积状态，因此使患者病情加重。中医认为，"阴之所生，本在五味，阴之五宫，伤在五味，是故过于酸，肝气以津，脾气乃绝。"它说明人体的津液、精血是由饮食五味所滋养而产生的，但人体的五脏也会由于饮食五味的偏嗜而被伤害，所以当食用过多的酸味食品时，就会造成肝阳偏亢，而使肝脾不和，从而损伤脾的运化功能。这里的脾气，实际上是指胆汁的消化功能。因此，肝胆结石患者要绝对禁食酸味水果，而当人们去探视他们时，也不要带这类水果，以防病人病情加重。
究其原因，酸味水果正是由于其味酸，有着较强的收敛作用，它可使奥狄氏括约肌收缩，从而加重肝胆结石患者的胆汁郁积状态，因此使患者病情加重。中医认为，"阴之所生，本在五味，阴之五宫，伤在五味，是故过于酸，肝气以津，脾气乃绝。"它说明人体的津液、精血是由饮食五味所滋养而产生的，但人体的五脏也会由于饮食五味的偏嗜而被伤害，所以当食用过多的酸味食品时，就会造成肝阳偏亢，而使肝脾不和，从而损伤脾的运化功能。这里的脾气，实际上是指胆汁的消化功能。因此，肝胆结石患者要绝对禁食酸味水果，而当人们去探视他们时，也不要带这类水果，以防病人病情加重。
7 Traits Of Irresistible Men
A man boasting abs chiseled to perfection and biceps that pop just enough when flexed (without shredding shirts He-Man style) will no-doubt turn our heads. And even if caught mid check-him-out glance, we're not about to look away. Fit, toned bodies are the result of hard work and dedication to a healthy lifestyle. We certainly pay homage to that. But for a man to achieve a skyrocketing score on the sexiness scale there's got to be more to him than physical assets. Throw in these seven traits and he's guaranteed irresistible.
1. He Has Mastered The Wink. We don't know how they learn the technique but some guys really have the Richard Gere wink down pat. There's an art to this wink and getting it right can be tricky. It's more suave and smoky than cheeky and laughable. He's comfortable giving this signal and has the timing to the tee. Done right, this move is pure sexy. Caveat: The wink can be tricky to pull off. Practice first.
2. He Radiates Calm. It's sending shivers up our spine just thinking about how powerful a man's calm presence can be. Neurotic or hyper or frenzied is stressful, no matter how busy the man or what his excuse. But if he's got cool written all over his face and his gaze is pure steady and peaceful his sex appeal will shoot through the roof (think old-school James Dean). We women can unwillingly fall into the trap of over-worrying about things we can't control. A man who sets us at ease by reminding us how things always manage to work out in the end is absolutely hot.
3. He Takes Care Of Himself. Look, we're not saying it's a certain height or build that matters. If he keeps his body in relatively good shape this shows us he knows how to take care of himself. It also clues us in that he sets health as a priority. What's more, if he's active, working out even a few times a week, the endorphins his body is producing during gym sessions are sure to keep him in good spirits and energized. The bottom line: If he takes good care of himself he's likely to take good care of his partner (or at least help keep her motivated to do so). That's a turn-on.
4. He's Got Style. We don't want to give the wrong idea here. This is not to say he has to be one certain type of style, and that mimicking a prescribed "it" style is a surefire path to sexy (whether that's clean-cut, tattooed-up or punked-out). Not at all. Rather, what's attractive in a guy is that he has a style at all, a way of dressing that reflects in some way who he is and what he's into. A guy who wakes up hum-drum and throws the same dingy shirt and pair of jeans on every day? Not sexy. At all.
5. He Has A Manly Scent. Sounds so animalistic, we know. No man can control his natural scent, and it turns out our DNA compatibility dictates who smells good to us, anyway. But, every guy can augment his essence with a spritz (one will do just fine) of cologne. As long as it's not overdone, a man with a strong scent has the potential to drive women wild.
6. He Is Affectionate. Though we women try not to let on, affection (be it an arm around the shoulder or hand on the leg) lights us up like fireflies. Consider it your secret weapon. By affection, we do mean to include expressing your feelings through words, such as "I love you." It's amazing how many hot men fall short of sexy just for lack of articulating and showing their love. Let's put it this way: There are guys who reach out to their partner while driving, and there are guys who keep both hands on the wheel and eyes straight ahead. The lads of the former group qualify for sexy.
7. He Laughs Loud, Hard, Often. No news flash here. Comedy is highly enticing. It's worth noting though that there are different types of humor. The insecure comedy that's based on putting others down or calling them names doesn't gibe with us. But give us fun-loving, belly-jiggling jokes and laughter and you'll head straight to the top of the sexiness charts.
1. He Has Mastered The Wink. We don't know how they learn the technique but some guys really have the Richard Gere wink down pat. There's an art to this wink and getting it right can be tricky. It's more suave and smoky than cheeky and laughable. He's comfortable giving this signal and has the timing to the tee. Done right, this move is pure sexy. Caveat: The wink can be tricky to pull off. Practice first.
2. He Radiates Calm. It's sending shivers up our spine just thinking about how powerful a man's calm presence can be. Neurotic or hyper or frenzied is stressful, no matter how busy the man or what his excuse. But if he's got cool written all over his face and his gaze is pure steady and peaceful his sex appeal will shoot through the roof (think old-school James Dean). We women can unwillingly fall into the trap of over-worrying about things we can't control. A man who sets us at ease by reminding us how things always manage to work out in the end is absolutely hot.
3. He Takes Care Of Himself. Look, we're not saying it's a certain height or build that matters. If he keeps his body in relatively good shape this shows us he knows how to take care of himself. It also clues us in that he sets health as a priority. What's more, if he's active, working out even a few times a week, the endorphins his body is producing during gym sessions are sure to keep him in good spirits and energized. The bottom line: If he takes good care of himself he's likely to take good care of his partner (or at least help keep her motivated to do so). That's a turn-on.
4. He's Got Style. We don't want to give the wrong idea here. This is not to say he has to be one certain type of style, and that mimicking a prescribed "it" style is a surefire path to sexy (whether that's clean-cut, tattooed-up or punked-out). Not at all. Rather, what's attractive in a guy is that he has a style at all, a way of dressing that reflects in some way who he is and what he's into. A guy who wakes up hum-drum and throws the same dingy shirt and pair of jeans on every day? Not sexy. At all.
5. He Has A Manly Scent. Sounds so animalistic, we know. No man can control his natural scent, and it turns out our DNA compatibility dictates who smells good to us, anyway. But, every guy can augment his essence with a spritz (one will do just fine) of cologne. As long as it's not overdone, a man with a strong scent has the potential to drive women wild.
6. He Is Affectionate. Though we women try not to let on, affection (be it an arm around the shoulder or hand on the leg) lights us up like fireflies. Consider it your secret weapon. By affection, we do mean to include expressing your feelings through words, such as "I love you." It's amazing how many hot men fall short of sexy just for lack of articulating and showing their love. Let's put it this way: There are guys who reach out to their partner while driving, and there are guys who keep both hands on the wheel and eyes straight ahead. The lads of the former group qualify for sexy.
7. He Laughs Loud, Hard, Often. No news flash here. Comedy is highly enticing. It's worth noting though that there are different types of humor. The insecure comedy that's based on putting others down or calling them names doesn't gibe with us. But give us fun-loving, belly-jiggling jokes and laughter and you'll head straight to the top of the sexiness charts.
Dealing With the Race Factor
A recent study on racial preferences of online daters provides some interesting findings. Based on profile-searching criteria set by singles using Yahoo! Personals, the UCI case study reveals that gender plays an important role in interracial preferences:
Asian American men are the least preferred mate for Caucasian women, and African American women bear the brunt of discrimination from Caucasian men. UCI researchers say that "the stereotypical images of masculinity and femininity shape dating choices" and are a contributing factor.
The cross-cultural revolution is not going to be launched on the Internet dating scene, where people often follow racial stereotypes when looking for love, the researchers said.
In spite of these findings, there's always an exception to the norm, and I should know as an ABC (American-Born Chinese) who met and married another type of ABC (American Brazilian Caucasian -- yes, I just made that up). Like any couple we've had our ups and downs, but we've somehow managed to bond well for almost a decade.
For those of you involved with a date -- or mate -- of a different race, check out these obstacles of interracial dating and ways to overcome them.
Dating Obstacle #1. The Traditionalists
I've encountered several people who possess strong opinions about interracial dating: A South African told me that people should date within their own race; my Korean American friend found it inconceivable to betroth a white woman; some Asian guys I've met told me they loathe competing with white guys to woo Asian bachelorettes.
Yes, the resistance against interracial dating persists, even in the diverse San Francisco Bay Area where I live. You should consider that citizens in most U.S. states were legally banned from marrying outside of their race until 1967.
How do you cope?
Surround yourself with pals who tolerate diversity. As individuals, we have an innate desire to be understood; and as an interracial couple, the desire remains the same. You must learn to accept adversity and not let it influence your individual judgment. The acceptance you receive from a circle of friends strips away your sensitivity to snide comments that oppose your open dating preferences.
Dating Obstacle #2. The Stereotypes From Mass Media
Can you blame the TV producers and advertisers for playing it safe by catering to the majority? After all, they measure what appeals to a mass audience and go with what we're familiar with. It's no mystery that stereotyping the population is much easier than representing eclectic subgroups within our population. As an expected result of this, the general public absorbs oversimplified images of various ethnic groups -- and how they pair up -- in every media imaginable.
How do you cope?
Recognizing the biased reality of the media business in itself resolves much of the adverse impact of broadcasted stereotypes. Avoid "keeping up with the Joneses" and don't think you have to date like all the idealized couples the generic media fodder has fed you. Boil your beliefs down to what really matters to you, and you'll become stereotype-resistant.
Dating Obstacle #3. The Offensive Family Member
It happens: You'll attend a family gathering where your estranged uncle shows that he may not be as culturally enlightened as the rest of your family. The off-color jokes spew out of his mouth. He snickers. You're in shock. Your significant other is in shock. The tension builds while you attempt to cool the blood that boils within you.
How do you cope?
Realize that there may always be a family member, or friend, who has trouble thinking before uttering insensitive opinions or bluntly racist remarks. Prepare for these confrontations. Let that person know if you think his/her comments are offensive, and choose honest yet eloquent ways to respond. Practice what you'll say and when you'll say it -- so when the situation happens, you won't let your emotions get the best of you. If this person is worth dealing with, he/she will respect your straightforwardness.
Silence will only prolong the issue. Share your thoughts to show that you care about how you interact with everyone, and vice versa. This is not the time to be shy. Demand respect. You deserve it.
Dating Obstacle #4. The Gazers
I know. It gets old. Not everybody is used to seeing an interracial couple. People will stare at you. They may even display a frown or a furrowed brow.
How do you cope?
Ignore the natural response of attempting to read their minds. Who knows what they're thinking when they stare: Maybe they admire you two as a couple, or they like your threads, or they just haven't seen your "kind" before, or they're waiting for you two to show some affection so they can label you as a couple rather than friends. It's pointless to keep wondering.
Instead, imagine you're a celebrity. In fact, you are. You might well be the spectacle of the day for them. Thrive and celebrate your uniqueness. These public encounters add flavor to the otherwise bland experiences of their lives. You're simply desensitizing them to the notion of colorblind dating. Sooner or later, they won't look twice ... because they've seen it before.
Asian American men are the least preferred mate for Caucasian women, and African American women bear the brunt of discrimination from Caucasian men. UCI researchers say that "the stereotypical images of masculinity and femininity shape dating choices" and are a contributing factor.
The cross-cultural revolution is not going to be launched on the Internet dating scene, where people often follow racial stereotypes when looking for love, the researchers said.
In spite of these findings, there's always an exception to the norm, and I should know as an ABC (American-Born Chinese) who met and married another type of ABC (American Brazilian Caucasian -- yes, I just made that up). Like any couple we've had our ups and downs, but we've somehow managed to bond well for almost a decade.
For those of you involved with a date -- or mate -- of a different race, check out these obstacles of interracial dating and ways to overcome them.
Dating Obstacle #1. The Traditionalists
I've encountered several people who possess strong opinions about interracial dating: A South African told me that people should date within their own race; my Korean American friend found it inconceivable to betroth a white woman; some Asian guys I've met told me they loathe competing with white guys to woo Asian bachelorettes.
Yes, the resistance against interracial dating persists, even in the diverse San Francisco Bay Area where I live. You should consider that citizens in most U.S. states were legally banned from marrying outside of their race until 1967.
How do you cope?
Surround yourself with pals who tolerate diversity. As individuals, we have an innate desire to be understood; and as an interracial couple, the desire remains the same. You must learn to accept adversity and not let it influence your individual judgment. The acceptance you receive from a circle of friends strips away your sensitivity to snide comments that oppose your open dating preferences.
Dating Obstacle #2. The Stereotypes From Mass Media
Can you blame the TV producers and advertisers for playing it safe by catering to the majority? After all, they measure what appeals to a mass audience and go with what we're familiar with. It's no mystery that stereotyping the population is much easier than representing eclectic subgroups within our population. As an expected result of this, the general public absorbs oversimplified images of various ethnic groups -- and how they pair up -- in every media imaginable.
How do you cope?
Recognizing the biased reality of the media business in itself resolves much of the adverse impact of broadcasted stereotypes. Avoid "keeping up with the Joneses" and don't think you have to date like all the idealized couples the generic media fodder has fed you. Boil your beliefs down to what really matters to you, and you'll become stereotype-resistant.
Dating Obstacle #3. The Offensive Family Member
It happens: You'll attend a family gathering where your estranged uncle shows that he may not be as culturally enlightened as the rest of your family. The off-color jokes spew out of his mouth. He snickers. You're in shock. Your significant other is in shock. The tension builds while you attempt to cool the blood that boils within you.
How do you cope?
Realize that there may always be a family member, or friend, who has trouble thinking before uttering insensitive opinions or bluntly racist remarks. Prepare for these confrontations. Let that person know if you think his/her comments are offensive, and choose honest yet eloquent ways to respond. Practice what you'll say and when you'll say it -- so when the situation happens, you won't let your emotions get the best of you. If this person is worth dealing with, he/she will respect your straightforwardness.
Silence will only prolong the issue. Share your thoughts to show that you care about how you interact with everyone, and vice versa. This is not the time to be shy. Demand respect. You deserve it.
Dating Obstacle #4. The Gazers
I know. It gets old. Not everybody is used to seeing an interracial couple. People will stare at you. They may even display a frown or a furrowed brow.
How do you cope?
Ignore the natural response of attempting to read their minds. Who knows what they're thinking when they stare: Maybe they admire you two as a couple, or they like your threads, or they just haven't seen your "kind" before, or they're waiting for you two to show some affection so they can label you as a couple rather than friends. It's pointless to keep wondering.
Instead, imagine you're a celebrity. In fact, you are. You might well be the spectacle of the day for them. Thrive and celebrate your uniqueness. These public encounters add flavor to the otherwise bland experiences of their lives. You're simply desensitizing them to the notion of colorblind dating. Sooner or later, they won't look twice ... because they've seen it before.
9 Simple Things Women Want
Besides the meaning of life and the ingredients of hot dogs, many a man has questioned, "What exactly do women want?" We're not playing coy here, we know we're complex creatures. And, true, we operate on a different wavelength than men.
But women aren't exactly the great mystery that men often make us out to be. The proof? We polled the YourTango staff and compiled a list of 9 simple things women want. Note: you won't find diamond rings or other fancy things anywhere on this list. While many women really do want luxury goods from men, when you break it down they are just physical representations of some of the points on this list. We promise.
1. Respect. Show us through your actions that you respect our opinions, careers, interests, friends, bodies, and minds. You don't have to agree with all that we say or do, but try to honor our opinions as valuable contributions. Follow the golden rule and treat us as you would like to be treated: Be honest, fair, kind, and considerate.
2. Romance. It's another night on the couch with takeout and TiVo? Just because we're staying in doesn't mean the evening can't be romantic. Light a few candles and see where the night leads. Treat us like your girlfriend, even after we become your wife. Date nights, physical affection in the car, kissing like when we first started dating -- all of the things that made us fall in love with you don't have to stop just because now there are bills to pay, a house to be cleaned, and kids to be bathed. Bring home flowers for no reason. We're not talking $100 bouquets of roses here. Even the $10 bouquets from the supermarket are enough to make us smile.
3. Time. We understand relationships can't be all wine and roses; simply making the time to be with us and treating us like your top priority says "love" more than all the fancy gifts and lovely letters ever could. This includes helping around the house. The realities of a 21st-century relationship are that both partners probably work. If you happen to get home before we do, why not vacuum the living room or throw in a load of laundry? If you take the garbage out without being asked, chances are you'll be getting a big ole smooch when you come back.
4. Dinner. Of the homemade variety. You may not be good at cooking and you may not know how to boil water. But greeting us at the door after a long day with fish sticks (or whatever you can wrastle up) makes us swoon, because it shows that you've been thinking about us and our hectic day.
5. Communication. Women are vocal creatures. We know you love us, but it's nice to hear you say it, too. We can also be insecure. We wish we weren't, but the reality is that we often notice our wobbly thighs and forget about our gorgeous eyes. So let us know when you think we're hot. Tell us we're beautiful. It helps us feel good. Words of appreciation aren't half-bad either. Tell us you love the lasagna we made. Notice that we cleaned the bathtub. It doesn't have to be over the top, just let us know that you see the effort we put in, and you're grateful.
6. Consistency. This doesn't mean be boring and predictable. It means that we know you will (usually -- no one is perfect!) give us the love and support we need. Knowing that you're coming at this with the same desires and energy as we are goes a long way to making us feel secure.
7. Engagement. Of the mental kind, not the "I'm getting married in the morning" kind. You don't have to like everything we like (we might be a little concerned if you do), but showing interest in our passions, be it career-related, a sport, or a hobby, goes a long way. Listen when we talk to you. We're not speaking just so we can hear our own voice; we want to connect with you and this is one valuable way we do this. This also means paying attention to the little things. Whether it's the name of your best friend's husband or the fact that you hate Nicolas Cage movies, it's the little things you remember about us that's so endearing.
8. Humor and Humility. These two tend to go hand in hand. This doesn't mean that you have to crack jokes or entertain us, but just being able to laugh at yourself is enough. Guys who take themselves too seriously bring everyone down.
9. Challenge. Not the kind that makes a relationship constant work, but the good kind that surprises and motivates us to do, be, or achieve what we desire. Studies show that partners who prod each other to meet goals -- in other words, don't support lazy or bad habits -- are ultimately happier than those who don't hold each other accountable.
But women aren't exactly the great mystery that men often make us out to be. The proof? We polled the YourTango staff and compiled a list of 9 simple things women want. Note: you won't find diamond rings or other fancy things anywhere on this list. While many women really do want luxury goods from men, when you break it down they are just physical representations of some of the points on this list. We promise.
1. Respect. Show us through your actions that you respect our opinions, careers, interests, friends, bodies, and minds. You don't have to agree with all that we say or do, but try to honor our opinions as valuable contributions. Follow the golden rule and treat us as you would like to be treated: Be honest, fair, kind, and considerate.
2. Romance. It's another night on the couch with takeout and TiVo? Just because we're staying in doesn't mean the evening can't be romantic. Light a few candles and see where the night leads. Treat us like your girlfriend, even after we become your wife. Date nights, physical affection in the car, kissing like when we first started dating -- all of the things that made us fall in love with you don't have to stop just because now there are bills to pay, a house to be cleaned, and kids to be bathed. Bring home flowers for no reason. We're not talking $100 bouquets of roses here. Even the $10 bouquets from the supermarket are enough to make us smile.
3. Time. We understand relationships can't be all wine and roses; simply making the time to be with us and treating us like your top priority says "love" more than all the fancy gifts and lovely letters ever could. This includes helping around the house. The realities of a 21st-century relationship are that both partners probably work. If you happen to get home before we do, why not vacuum the living room or throw in a load of laundry? If you take the garbage out without being asked, chances are you'll be getting a big ole smooch when you come back.
4. Dinner. Of the homemade variety. You may not be good at cooking and you may not know how to boil water. But greeting us at the door after a long day with fish sticks (or whatever you can wrastle up) makes us swoon, because it shows that you've been thinking about us and our hectic day.
5. Communication. Women are vocal creatures. We know you love us, but it's nice to hear you say it, too. We can also be insecure. We wish we weren't, but the reality is that we often notice our wobbly thighs and forget about our gorgeous eyes. So let us know when you think we're hot. Tell us we're beautiful. It helps us feel good. Words of appreciation aren't half-bad either. Tell us you love the lasagna we made. Notice that we cleaned the bathtub. It doesn't have to be over the top, just let us know that you see the effort we put in, and you're grateful.
6. Consistency. This doesn't mean be boring and predictable. It means that we know you will (usually -- no one is perfect!) give us the love and support we need. Knowing that you're coming at this with the same desires and energy as we are goes a long way to making us feel secure.
7. Engagement. Of the mental kind, not the "I'm getting married in the morning" kind. You don't have to like everything we like (we might be a little concerned if you do), but showing interest in our passions, be it career-related, a sport, or a hobby, goes a long way. Listen when we talk to you. We're not speaking just so we can hear our own voice; we want to connect with you and this is one valuable way we do this. This also means paying attention to the little things. Whether it's the name of your best friend's husband or the fact that you hate Nicolas Cage movies, it's the little things you remember about us that's so endearing.
8. Humor and Humility. These two tend to go hand in hand. This doesn't mean that you have to crack jokes or entertain us, but just being able to laugh at yourself is enough. Guys who take themselves too seriously bring everyone down.
9. Challenge. Not the kind that makes a relationship constant work, but the good kind that surprises and motivates us to do, be, or achieve what we desire. Studies show that partners who prod each other to meet goals -- in other words, don't support lazy or bad habits -- are ultimately happier than those who don't hold each other accountable.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
趴着不动，也许你就是下一个千万富翁！
有这么一个古老的故事，说一个爱下象棋的国王棋艺高超，在他的国度从未有过敌手。为了找到对手，他下了一个诏书，诏书中说无论是谁，只要下败他，国王就会答应他任何一个要求。一天，一个年青人来到了皇宫，要求与国王下棋。经过紧张激战，年轻人终于赢了国王，国王问这个年轻人要什么样的奖赏，年轻人说他只要一点点小小的奖赏。就是将他们下的棋盘上，在棋盘的第一个格子中放上一颗麦子，在第二个格子中放进前一个格子的一倍，每一个格子中都是前一个格子中麦子数量的一倍，一直将棋盘每一个格子摆满。国王觉得很容易就可以满足他的要求，于是就同意了。但很快国王就发现，即使将国库所有的粮食都给他，也不够百分之一。因为即使一粒麦子只有一克重，也需要数十万亿吨的麦子才够。尽管从表面上看，他的起点十分低，从一棵麦子开始，但是经过很多次的乘积，就迅速变成庞大的数字。这个故事的结尾，国王是怎样解决信用问题我已经忘记了，但是它却使我明白了什么是复利效果。
复利的计算是对本金及其产生的利息一并计算，也就是利上有利。就是把上期未的本利和作为下一期的本金，在计算时每一期本金的数额是不同的。复利的计算公式是：S＝P（1＋i）^n。
下表是一张复利计算公式图，分别记录着一元万本金按照5-35%的年复利率增长的情况。
如果每年能35%复利，30年后当初投入的1万就有8128万，复利真惊人。
有人说，如果当年英国女皇不技持哥伦布去找新大陆，而是投资到一个每年有10%复利成长的股市，那么，现在最有钱的国家就是英国了。
所以爱因斯坦说：“复利是世界第八大奇迹。”
复利的“三要素”，决定投资成功的这“三要素”始终如一：
（1） 投入资金的数额；
（2） 实现的收益率情况；
（3） 投资时间的长短。
（1）投入资金的数额：其实我们应该明白这样一个事实，今天投入的一万元会变成若干年后的一百万或更多，其实勤俭节约、善于积累是投资成功一个最基本的条件，资本的积累带有“残酷”和“抑欲”的特征，几百年前资本家的理财方式在今天仍然有效，复利的基本要求之一就是把每一分赢利全部转换为投资本金而不能用于消费否则复利的作用就要大打折扣，在市场上很多人在赢利的时候轻易的把赢利部分消费掉而在亏损的时候却不得不缩水本金---这是永远也无法积累财富的；
因此，“勿以财小而不理”，年轻时不要形成随便花钱的坏毛病，年轻人应该形成这样一个概念，那就是今天的1元是若干年后的百元千元钱，现在你花了1元钱，就等于吃下一个能长成参天大树的种子，早年节约过苦日子才有老来福。
（2）实现的收益率情况：财富的积累并没有对收益率有苛刻的要求，暴利并不是富裕的必要条件，但对暴利的渴望与贪婪几乎成为市场所有参与者的唯一目标，一切超凡的报酬率都是不可能持续这是经济规律，在你轻松的获得50%的赢利时也有可能莫名其妙的亏损掉50%，较高的赢利水平被相对较高的风险给平衡掉了，其实稳重、保守、持续、适当的长年报酬率才是真正的成功之道，依靠年复一年的复利作用少少的一点钱也能够成为一笔天文数字的资产。
（3）投资时间的长短：想要成功投资切记不要急功近利，巴菲特成名前有过数十年的艰苦学习和奋斗，时间是财富积累最佳的催化剂，我们的投资计划一定要是一个长期的投资计划，即使是短期的投资计划也必需置于这个长期投资计划的框架内，从例证1的我们可以发现我们投资得越久那个最后五年或三年所能够取得的报酬额就越是惊人，我有时甚至突发奇想为中国每一位新出生的孩子都做一份长期的投资计划那当他们成年或老的时候会是多么的幸福啊。
在股市中要实现复利：
第一，首先不要亏钱，必须坚持价值选股，坚持安全边际投资。
第二，你必须选对一只中小盘的成长股，而且基本面情况稳步向上。当若干年后小公司变成大公司后，如同小苗长成参天大树后，成长性就变差了，这时就只有放弃这个再投入到另一个成长性好的小公司。
第三，你必须选择一个大熊市周期底部买进。
要想成为百万富翁，只需要满足三个条件：每年储蓄5万元；年回报12%以上；坚持定期投资10年，其中坚持很重要。
小心，扒着不动，也许你就是下一个千万富翁！
复利的计算是对本金及其产生的利息一并计算，也就是利上有利。就是把上期未的本利和作为下一期的本金，在计算时每一期本金的数额是不同的。复利的计算公式是：S＝P（1＋i）^n。
下表是一张复利计算公式图，分别记录着一元万本金按照5-35%的年复利率增长的情况。
如果每年能35%复利，30年后当初投入的1万就有8128万，复利真惊人。
有人说，如果当年英国女皇不技持哥伦布去找新大陆，而是投资到一个每年有10%复利成长的股市，那么，现在最有钱的国家就是英国了。
所以爱因斯坦说：“复利是世界第八大奇迹。”
复利的“三要素”，决定投资成功的这“三要素”始终如一：
（1） 投入资金的数额；
（2） 实现的收益率情况；
（3） 投资时间的长短。
（1）投入资金的数额：其实我们应该明白这样一个事实，今天投入的一万元会变成若干年后的一百万或更多，其实勤俭节约、善于积累是投资成功一个最基本的条件，资本的积累带有“残酷”和“抑欲”的特征，几百年前资本家的理财方式在今天仍然有效，复利的基本要求之一就是把每一分赢利全部转换为投资本金而不能用于消费否则复利的作用就要大打折扣，在市场上很多人在赢利的时候轻易的把赢利部分消费掉而在亏损的时候却不得不缩水本金---这是永远也无法积累财富的；
因此，“勿以财小而不理”，年轻时不要形成随便花钱的坏毛病，年轻人应该形成这样一个概念，那就是今天的1元是若干年后的百元千元钱，现在你花了1元钱，就等于吃下一个能长成参天大树的种子，早年节约过苦日子才有老来福。
（2）实现的收益率情况：财富的积累并没有对收益率有苛刻的要求，暴利并不是富裕的必要条件，但对暴利的渴望与贪婪几乎成为市场所有参与者的唯一目标，一切超凡的报酬率都是不可能持续这是经济规律，在你轻松的获得50%的赢利时也有可能莫名其妙的亏损掉50%，较高的赢利水平被相对较高的风险给平衡掉了，其实稳重、保守、持续、适当的长年报酬率才是真正的成功之道，依靠年复一年的复利作用少少的一点钱也能够成为一笔天文数字的资产。
（3）投资时间的长短：想要成功投资切记不要急功近利，巴菲特成名前有过数十年的艰苦学习和奋斗，时间是财富积累最佳的催化剂，我们的投资计划一定要是一个长期的投资计划，即使是短期的投资计划也必需置于这个长期投资计划的框架内，从例证1的我们可以发现我们投资得越久那个最后五年或三年所能够取得的报酬额就越是惊人，我有时甚至突发奇想为中国每一位新出生的孩子都做一份长期的投资计划那当他们成年或老的时候会是多么的幸福啊。
在股市中要实现复利：
第一，首先不要亏钱，必须坚持价值选股，坚持安全边际投资。
第二，你必须选对一只中小盘的成长股，而且基本面情况稳步向上。当若干年后小公司变成大公司后，如同小苗长成参天大树后，成长性就变差了，这时就只有放弃这个再投入到另一个成长性好的小公司。
第三，你必须选择一个大熊市周期底部买进。
要想成为百万富翁，只需要满足三个条件：每年储蓄5万元；年回报12%以上；坚持定期投资10年，其中坚持很重要。
小心，扒着不动，也许你就是下一个千万富翁！
Sunday, August 30, 2009
失败与成功
失败是成功之母,但要看你怎么去对待它.
成功的关键在于能有自己的操作原则，能独立思考。但是我在操作中形成的一点理念一旦得到证实就认为大功告成，无视风险的存在；一旦遇到挫折就全盘否定，找不到方向。在学习过程中遇到错误是难免的，在寻找自己操作理念的同时，我必须正确对待失败(亏损)。
一、股市的随机性决定短期亏损必然产生。
大多数人都同意股票价格的起伏要比商业价值的起伏剧烈得多。在股票市场，如同大多概率系统，存在着大量的噪音。然而大多数投资者都忽略了在何种程度上随机性会影响短期结果。
二、回顾历史
1、查理·芒格投资的18个年头中，有34%的时间比市场成绩差，其中最差的一年还落后市场37个百分点；
2、巴菲特在行情最火爆的网路年代1999年，其投资收益甚至为-19%；
3、彼得"林奇列出了一长串的失败的投资记录，并借此提醒读者所谓的聪明投资者大约在40%的时间里都表现得非常愚蠢；
4、乔治·索罗斯。其以前的同事斯科特·巴萨特近来接受采访时说：“乔治拥有糟糕的平均击球率——低于50%，甚至也许低于30%——但是当他赢的时候就是大满贯。”
5、费斯交易系统，从1998年4月到1999年2月将会产生总计28笔交易(平均规模在1万到1.5万美元之间)，总共产生的利润接近5.6万美元。但是在这28笔交易中，24笔是没有盈利的(平均亏损930美元)，而4笔盈利(平均收益大约2万美元)。更艰难的是，头17笔交易连续亏损。鉴于这种盈利模式，不难看出为什么交易员会放弃此商品，并认为其风险过大。
三、正确对待亏损必须克服的障碍：损失厌恶、频率VS幅度以及随机性的角色。
1、大多数投资者都忽略了随机性会影响短期结果的程度。
2、损失厌恶。人们在遭受损失时所产生的痛苦程度，两倍于在获得同量收益时所产生的愉悦程度。一个重要的结果是，投资者会怀疑、拒绝带来正收益的财务价值主张，当最近的业绩不佳时尤为如此。
而且同样糟糕的是，许多投资者对于短期随机性产生的情感反应会降低其决策质量。尽快脱离损失成为其首要选择，可以看到很多人在大跌小反弹之后割肉。
3、频率与幅度。财富的变化并不取决于你做对事情频率，而是当你做对事情时赚了多少钱与做错事情时赔了多少钱的幅度。频率与幅度都是你需要考虑的。但是我们大多数人将成败限制在价格的框架里。例如，如果你在30美元时购买一个股票，任何高于此水平的价格从心理上就会被你视作成功；任何低于此的价格在内心里就会被视作不成功。
费斯用一个交易系统20年的结果对此点作了说明。这个时期内，该系统产生了大约5600笔交易，换句话说就是每年大约250笔。在这些交易里，超过2／3都赔了钱，成功的比率不超过1／3。但是成功交易所赚的钱比失败交易所赔平均多2.2倍，总体上净赚大幅利润。乔治·索罗斯的事例也能说明。
四、建立正确的交易系统
一名交易员或投资者在一段时间里完全有可能由于市场的随机性押对趋势而输钱。但是许多投资者将不佳的收益归因于自己的方法不对而铸成大错。同样危险也存在于把良好的收益归因于自己的方法。一个深思熟虑的投资者会小心分析趋势（仔细考虑过程），并辨别出相应的长期结果。每当我亏损的时候，甚至想清仓的时候，要认真思索：这是市场的槽音，还是我的操作理念除了问题，只要操作理念没有错，就一定要坚守。
1、在一段时间里坚持正确的操作理念，对于最大化收益来说至关重要。近期的偏见以及对亏损的厌恶会让你在交易变得盈利之前放弃对的事情。
2、对于亏损厌恶，对于频率与幅度最大化的操作说得比实际做要容易。个体如何处理这些障碍可以很好地看出他们的投资性格。许多著名的投资人将预期价值心态运用得非常好。
3、应对策略大于预测。市场的不确定性决定了失败必然产生，但是你事先要制订好应对策略，更不要形成上涨的单向思维。李嘉诚：57年不败秘诀90％时间先想失败。
4、如何保持良好的投资心态
短期内的失败是必然的，即使是公认的投资大师也不能保证卖的太早或买入后被套，但他们能够保持良好的心态，这才是成功的关键。
一、正确的操作非常重要。坚持价值投资的理念无比重要，任何一次投机的侥幸心理都会受到惩罚，即使是李驰这样的高手也在为最近的错误在反省（所幸我已经能看出他的错误，没有盲从）。从我的操作经历来看，以往频繁的操作中，总能捉住几支大牛股，在向别人谈起时带来的快感外，但是由于舱位太少、短视等原因，对自己的收益并不大。根据我对几位新手的观察，买入的不乏牛股，甚至有几个准确的内部消息显得那么神秘，但是这些从长期来讲都是毒药。
二、正确决策执行後还会面对亏损的机会。这是不可避免的，关键是我们面对亏损的时候怎么面对。持续不断的改善自我，认识自己，认清运气的因素，才是股市长期生存之道。学习价值投资是个没有成就感的职业，长远的投资收益是以牺牲操作的刺激和对短期损失的耐心为代价的。对于一个经验还很少的初学者来说，形成一个坚定的自己的操作理念正是太难了。同时存在着找一个正确的方向和能否坚持的问题。由于信心不足，对短期亏损不知道这种理念、操作是否正确，操作理念在不停的摇摆，甚至会犯短线频繁操作的低级错误。读过以往的文章充满了犹豫、反复、后悔、庆幸、高兴、自满，股市扩大了人生。
1、sosme买入的中集从19-13元，但是其成功之处在于舱位很低，有长期不断补仓的准备。
2、高崖水库的平安短期内都有一定的亏损（73元）。
3、水月的深赤湾，2008年的深赤湾和2003年的深赤湾并没有太大区别。遗憾的是，03年到05年在“无边落木萧萧下”的环境中，深赤湾能完成翻倍，而06年到07年的大牛市，赤湾却无缘。
4、深蓝的伊利到现在不涨反跌。
5、有人研究过巴菲特，说巴菲特80%的股票一买就套
三、对待短期的损失挫折感的态度决定成败。博弈决策的形成严重依赖于人的情感。 费斯讲到，关于最终结果的决定因素往往是心理因素。损失厌恶和逃避亏损会让人承受巨大的心理压力，但就是这时才是考验一个人心理素质的时候，你所要做的就是检讨自己的出发点有无失误，没有就坚持，坚持一下也许就是胜利。
四、学习巴非特。巴非特的成功之处在于他年轻的时候就知道应该怎么做，并一直坚持。我们的幸运在于，和巴非特处于同一个时代，他为我们树立了一个标杆，我们只要能认真学习研究巴非特并严格执行，就可以一生富足。他为我们提供的不仅是标杆、理念，甚至包括很多具体的操作。03年买入中石油，07年15元卖出套取现金，成功躲过次级债带来的下跌；08年初持有巨额现金但是认为股市没有到底，不会入市。
面对知道如此具体的老师，大部分人还是自作聪明，想简单超越、否定他。48元买入中石油，08年初抄底（虽然买入少量的铁路、保险、医药，但是这不是他典型的做法）。
1、1969年底，大盘开始回落。到1970年5月，美国股市很多热门股票已经跌去50％。巴菲特却无股一身轻，他躲过了一场股灾。 经历了1969年底和1970年上半年的下跌，1970年美国股指开始反弹。1970年底上涨4％，1971年上涨15％，1972年上涨19％，当时最受市场追捧的是“靓丽50股”，这些蓝筹股平均市盈率高达80倍。此时巴菲特已收购伯克希尔公司40％的股份，公司账上资金1亿多美元，股票仓位只有16％，84％是债券，并不再接收新的资金管理。此时的巴菲特无奈地选择了忍耐。 巴菲特的耐心终有回报。1973年大盘跌了15％，1974年又跌了26％，从1000点跌到580点。此时的华尔街从大牛市转为大熊市，大家纷纷忙着抛股票，原来80倍市盈率的股票后来只有8倍左右，股票基本上没人买了。此时，忍了三年的巴菲特冲进股市狂买股票。1975到1976年，美国股市涨了60％，巴菲特赚了80％！
2、中国的巴非特。在市场狂热时，多数人会质疑甚至嘲讽那些过早离场的冷静者；而到了市场暴跌时，大家才会想起像赵丹阳这样坚守自己信念的投资人。资本市场大浪淘沙，短期内的出色业绩可能是容易的，但长期地活下来才是最不易的。“基金的优势首先不体现在一段时间、某只股票赚钱的多少，而是体现在持续控制风险的能力上。风险的量化程度是衡量基金经理专业化程度的标志。在投资界，‘活下来’永远是第一位的。”此时，赵丹阳年初的这段话发人深醒。
价值投资的困境。中集B十七八元都可以买,认为有一定的安全边际,现在十三四元为什么还要等待更低的价格,这是不是一种贪婪的表现.还是对公司心存疑虑? 我在平安68元、55元买入后，在48元也没有买入，策略是每降10元加仓一次，因为我不知道市场的错误会到什么程度，这种策略可以减少我的痛苦程度，但是也会买的太少。这个问题还没有想清楚。
不要预测市场走向
英国施罗德投资公司中国总裁高潮生指出，投资既简单又复杂，不同的投资人有不同的投资需求，很难找到一种投资组合、一种投资方式，适合所有的投资人。
很多中国的投资者往往在走一条错误的路，就是太多的注重方法论，忽略了世界观。投资起决定作用的不是方法论，是要有正确投资的世界观。不要预测市场走向，没有人可以长期准确预测市场走向，投资者应该做的是理清自己的投资目标、风险承受力，然后保持长期投资的理念。传奇人物巴菲特44年间的投资回报每年是21.1%。从1990年底上海交易所开张到上周五，如果第一天就投资中国股市，年均收益率是25.1%。如果从1926年开始，让美国投资人每月做一个决定，未来一月里应该买美国股票还是债券，如果股票好，这个月全部买股票,债券亦然。那么从1926年到2007年，1美元会变成1.5亿美元，亿万富翁很容易，就1个美元,年化收益率27.1%。中国从1990年到现在是25.1%，差得不太远。
投资要在最"痛苦"的时候保持清醒
价值投资人什么时候最痛苦？
一曰：市场沸腾，无安全边际时候，而且手中持有股皆已超高估；
二曰：买在企业安全价值边际区间内可股价还在不停地非理性下跌。
痛苦归痛苦，痛苦是心生的，是环境刺激的条件反射，但并不很多的痛苦具有持久不变的能力或是较长周期，时间是抚平大部分痛苦伤疤的良药。因此投资需要耐心，需要等待市场先生从极度亢奋或是极度悲痛的苏醒过来，因此我们就更不必去杞人忧天的过多思虑，只要企业发展和经济大环境没有被破坏，就可以耐心地等待拨乱反正的那一天！
很多时候大家都会有深刻的感触，往往大喜和大悲只隔一层薄薄的纸，不经历风雨不知道彩虹的美丽。我05年在1300点向着998点进发的时候写过，我们就是踩踏着胆小者的尸体和鲜血奋勇前行的，其实的确如此。在那时很多人直喊500点，我们也说不清楚能到多少点，但不管到多少点，遍地是黄金的时代，千万不要被暂时的痛苦折断了投资高飞的翅膀。
保持清醒需要做到几点：第一，要清楚牛熊涨跌就像自然界里刮风下雨一样是再自然不过的事情了，因此没在牛里出手就千万不能在熊里割肉。第二，等待很痛苦，的确。但做人必须学会等待，人生也不尽完美，人生也有很多痛苦，但我们只有忍耐，才能享受全过程：美丽抑或是艰辛折磨。第三，投资证券市场的本质是投资企业，当持有股票的企业还是蒸蒸日上的时候；当企业发展和股价呈剧烈反向运行时候，只要企业还很优秀，我想是不断买进企业股票的时候了，而不是根据二级市场指数波动作出相反的决策！
我们投资人要在市场上取得成功，需要百炼成钢，精益求精的探索；而不是靠小道消息和主观臆测来完成本应很神圣的投资工作。
看到投资大师巴菲特的财富了吧，您没看到的是他的思想斗争，他的大脑里也有痛苦的挣扎过程。在他不断地总结和学习中，他做到了清醒地面对“痛苦”。
一定要不停地念价值投资的经，一句简单的“在所有人都觉得悲观失望的时候是我们兴奋出手时机！”----就可以让我们普通投资人用一生的投资时光来感悟！！反之亦然,因为投资做到最后错的永远是大众!!
什么叫清醒？投资领域上讲就是反大众心理来思考问题，就是抓住事物发展的本质来看问题。
提要：
1.本文与“你为什么不能成为巴菲特”不谋而合，重申了强大的心智的重要性。
2.投资成功需要：合理的知识框架+强大的心智。
3.股价=内在价值+流动性造成的供求变化+市场情绪和机构对市场情绪的操纵。
成功的关键在于能有自己的操作原则，能独立思考。但是我在操作中形成的一点理念一旦得到证实就认为大功告成，无视风险的存在；一旦遇到挫折就全盘否定，找不到方向。在学习过程中遇到错误是难免的，在寻找自己操作理念的同时，我必须正确对待失败(亏损)。
一、股市的随机性决定短期亏损必然产生。
大多数人都同意股票价格的起伏要比商业价值的起伏剧烈得多。在股票市场，如同大多概率系统，存在着大量的噪音。然而大多数投资者都忽略了在何种程度上随机性会影响短期结果。
二、回顾历史
1、查理·芒格投资的18个年头中，有34%的时间比市场成绩差，其中最差的一年还落后市场37个百分点；
2、巴菲特在行情最火爆的网路年代1999年，其投资收益甚至为-19%；
3、彼得"林奇列出了一长串的失败的投资记录，并借此提醒读者所谓的聪明投资者大约在40%的时间里都表现得非常愚蠢；
4、乔治·索罗斯。其以前的同事斯科特·巴萨特近来接受采访时说：“乔治拥有糟糕的平均击球率——低于50%，甚至也许低于30%——但是当他赢的时候就是大满贯。”
5、费斯交易系统，从1998年4月到1999年2月将会产生总计28笔交易(平均规模在1万到1.5万美元之间)，总共产生的利润接近5.6万美元。但是在这28笔交易中，24笔是没有盈利的(平均亏损930美元)，而4笔盈利(平均收益大约2万美元)。更艰难的是，头17笔交易连续亏损。鉴于这种盈利模式，不难看出为什么交易员会放弃此商品，并认为其风险过大。
三、正确对待亏损必须克服的障碍：损失厌恶、频率VS幅度以及随机性的角色。
1、大多数投资者都忽略了随机性会影响短期结果的程度。
2、损失厌恶。人们在遭受损失时所产生的痛苦程度，两倍于在获得同量收益时所产生的愉悦程度。一个重要的结果是，投资者会怀疑、拒绝带来正收益的财务价值主张，当最近的业绩不佳时尤为如此。
而且同样糟糕的是，许多投资者对于短期随机性产生的情感反应会降低其决策质量。尽快脱离损失成为其首要选择，可以看到很多人在大跌小反弹之后割肉。
3、频率与幅度。财富的变化并不取决于你做对事情频率，而是当你做对事情时赚了多少钱与做错事情时赔了多少钱的幅度。频率与幅度都是你需要考虑的。但是我们大多数人将成败限制在价格的框架里。例如，如果你在30美元时购买一个股票，任何高于此水平的价格从心理上就会被你视作成功；任何低于此的价格在内心里就会被视作不成功。
费斯用一个交易系统20年的结果对此点作了说明。这个时期内，该系统产生了大约5600笔交易，换句话说就是每年大约250笔。在这些交易里，超过2／3都赔了钱，成功的比率不超过1／3。但是成功交易所赚的钱比失败交易所赔平均多2.2倍，总体上净赚大幅利润。乔治·索罗斯的事例也能说明。
四、建立正确的交易系统
一名交易员或投资者在一段时间里完全有可能由于市场的随机性押对趋势而输钱。但是许多投资者将不佳的收益归因于自己的方法不对而铸成大错。同样危险也存在于把良好的收益归因于自己的方法。一个深思熟虑的投资者会小心分析趋势（仔细考虑过程），并辨别出相应的长期结果。每当我亏损的时候，甚至想清仓的时候，要认真思索：这是市场的槽音，还是我的操作理念除了问题，只要操作理念没有错，就一定要坚守。
1、在一段时间里坚持正确的操作理念，对于最大化收益来说至关重要。近期的偏见以及对亏损的厌恶会让你在交易变得盈利之前放弃对的事情。
2、对于亏损厌恶，对于频率与幅度最大化的操作说得比实际做要容易。个体如何处理这些障碍可以很好地看出他们的投资性格。许多著名的投资人将预期价值心态运用得非常好。
3、应对策略大于预测。市场的不确定性决定了失败必然产生，但是你事先要制订好应对策略，更不要形成上涨的单向思维。李嘉诚：57年不败秘诀90％时间先想失败。
4、如何保持良好的投资心态
短期内的失败是必然的，即使是公认的投资大师也不能保证卖的太早或买入后被套，但他们能够保持良好的心态，这才是成功的关键。
一、正确的操作非常重要。坚持价值投资的理念无比重要，任何一次投机的侥幸心理都会受到惩罚，即使是李驰这样的高手也在为最近的错误在反省（所幸我已经能看出他的错误，没有盲从）。从我的操作经历来看，以往频繁的操作中，总能捉住几支大牛股，在向别人谈起时带来的快感外，但是由于舱位太少、短视等原因，对自己的收益并不大。根据我对几位新手的观察，买入的不乏牛股，甚至有几个准确的内部消息显得那么神秘，但是这些从长期来讲都是毒药。
二、正确决策执行後还会面对亏损的机会。这是不可避免的，关键是我们面对亏损的时候怎么面对。持续不断的改善自我，认识自己，认清运气的因素，才是股市长期生存之道。学习价值投资是个没有成就感的职业，长远的投资收益是以牺牲操作的刺激和对短期损失的耐心为代价的。对于一个经验还很少的初学者来说，形成一个坚定的自己的操作理念正是太难了。同时存在着找一个正确的方向和能否坚持的问题。由于信心不足，对短期亏损不知道这种理念、操作是否正确，操作理念在不停的摇摆，甚至会犯短线频繁操作的低级错误。读过以往的文章充满了犹豫、反复、后悔、庆幸、高兴、自满，股市扩大了人生。
1、sosme买入的中集从19-13元，但是其成功之处在于舱位很低，有长期不断补仓的准备。
2、高崖水库的平安短期内都有一定的亏损（73元）。
3、水月的深赤湾，2008年的深赤湾和2003年的深赤湾并没有太大区别。遗憾的是，03年到05年在“无边落木萧萧下”的环境中，深赤湾能完成翻倍，而06年到07年的大牛市，赤湾却无缘。
4、深蓝的伊利到现在不涨反跌。
5、有人研究过巴菲特，说巴菲特80%的股票一买就套
三、对待短期的损失挫折感的态度决定成败。博弈决策的形成严重依赖于人的情感。 费斯讲到，关于最终结果的决定因素往往是心理因素。损失厌恶和逃避亏损会让人承受巨大的心理压力，但就是这时才是考验一个人心理素质的时候，你所要做的就是检讨自己的出发点有无失误，没有就坚持，坚持一下也许就是胜利。
四、学习巴非特。巴非特的成功之处在于他年轻的时候就知道应该怎么做，并一直坚持。我们的幸运在于，和巴非特处于同一个时代，他为我们树立了一个标杆，我们只要能认真学习研究巴非特并严格执行，就可以一生富足。他为我们提供的不仅是标杆、理念，甚至包括很多具体的操作。03年买入中石油，07年15元卖出套取现金，成功躲过次级债带来的下跌；08年初持有巨额现金但是认为股市没有到底，不会入市。
面对知道如此具体的老师，大部分人还是自作聪明，想简单超越、否定他。48元买入中石油，08年初抄底（虽然买入少量的铁路、保险、医药，但是这不是他典型的做法）。
1、1969年底，大盘开始回落。到1970年5月，美国股市很多热门股票已经跌去50％。巴菲特却无股一身轻，他躲过了一场股灾。 经历了1969年底和1970年上半年的下跌，1970年美国股指开始反弹。1970年底上涨4％，1971年上涨15％，1972年上涨19％，当时最受市场追捧的是“靓丽50股”，这些蓝筹股平均市盈率高达80倍。此时巴菲特已收购伯克希尔公司40％的股份，公司账上资金1亿多美元，股票仓位只有16％，84％是债券，并不再接收新的资金管理。此时的巴菲特无奈地选择了忍耐。 巴菲特的耐心终有回报。1973年大盘跌了15％，1974年又跌了26％，从1000点跌到580点。此时的华尔街从大牛市转为大熊市，大家纷纷忙着抛股票，原来80倍市盈率的股票后来只有8倍左右，股票基本上没人买了。此时，忍了三年的巴菲特冲进股市狂买股票。1975到1976年，美国股市涨了60％，巴菲特赚了80％！
2、中国的巴非特。在市场狂热时，多数人会质疑甚至嘲讽那些过早离场的冷静者；而到了市场暴跌时，大家才会想起像赵丹阳这样坚守自己信念的投资人。资本市场大浪淘沙，短期内的出色业绩可能是容易的，但长期地活下来才是最不易的。“基金的优势首先不体现在一段时间、某只股票赚钱的多少，而是体现在持续控制风险的能力上。风险的量化程度是衡量基金经理专业化程度的标志。在投资界，‘活下来’永远是第一位的。”此时，赵丹阳年初的这段话发人深醒。
价值投资的困境。中集B十七八元都可以买,认为有一定的安全边际,现在十三四元为什么还要等待更低的价格,这是不是一种贪婪的表现.还是对公司心存疑虑? 我在平安68元、55元买入后，在48元也没有买入，策略是每降10元加仓一次，因为我不知道市场的错误会到什么程度，这种策略可以减少我的痛苦程度，但是也会买的太少。这个问题还没有想清楚。
不要预测市场走向
英国施罗德投资公司中国总裁高潮生指出，投资既简单又复杂，不同的投资人有不同的投资需求，很难找到一种投资组合、一种投资方式，适合所有的投资人。
很多中国的投资者往往在走一条错误的路，就是太多的注重方法论，忽略了世界观。投资起决定作用的不是方法论，是要有正确投资的世界观。不要预测市场走向，没有人可以长期准确预测市场走向，投资者应该做的是理清自己的投资目标、风险承受力，然后保持长期投资的理念。传奇人物巴菲特44年间的投资回报每年是21.1%。从1990年底上海交易所开张到上周五，如果第一天就投资中国股市，年均收益率是25.1%。如果从1926年开始，让美国投资人每月做一个决定，未来一月里应该买美国股票还是债券，如果股票好，这个月全部买股票,债券亦然。那么从1926年到2007年，1美元会变成1.5亿美元，亿万富翁很容易，就1个美元,年化收益率27.1%。中国从1990年到现在是25.1%，差得不太远。
投资要在最"痛苦"的时候保持清醒
价值投资人什么时候最痛苦？
一曰：市场沸腾，无安全边际时候，而且手中持有股皆已超高估；
二曰：买在企业安全价值边际区间内可股价还在不停地非理性下跌。
痛苦归痛苦，痛苦是心生的，是环境刺激的条件反射，但并不很多的痛苦具有持久不变的能力或是较长周期，时间是抚平大部分痛苦伤疤的良药。因此投资需要耐心，需要等待市场先生从极度亢奋或是极度悲痛的苏醒过来，因此我们就更不必去杞人忧天的过多思虑，只要企业发展和经济大环境没有被破坏，就可以耐心地等待拨乱反正的那一天！
很多时候大家都会有深刻的感触，往往大喜和大悲只隔一层薄薄的纸，不经历风雨不知道彩虹的美丽。我05年在1300点向着998点进发的时候写过，我们就是踩踏着胆小者的尸体和鲜血奋勇前行的，其实的确如此。在那时很多人直喊500点，我们也说不清楚能到多少点，但不管到多少点，遍地是黄金的时代，千万不要被暂时的痛苦折断了投资高飞的翅膀。
保持清醒需要做到几点：第一，要清楚牛熊涨跌就像自然界里刮风下雨一样是再自然不过的事情了，因此没在牛里出手就千万不能在熊里割肉。第二，等待很痛苦，的确。但做人必须学会等待，人生也不尽完美，人生也有很多痛苦，但我们只有忍耐，才能享受全过程：美丽抑或是艰辛折磨。第三，投资证券市场的本质是投资企业，当持有股票的企业还是蒸蒸日上的时候；当企业发展和股价呈剧烈反向运行时候，只要企业还很优秀，我想是不断买进企业股票的时候了，而不是根据二级市场指数波动作出相反的决策！
我们投资人要在市场上取得成功，需要百炼成钢，精益求精的探索；而不是靠小道消息和主观臆测来完成本应很神圣的投资工作。
看到投资大师巴菲特的财富了吧，您没看到的是他的思想斗争，他的大脑里也有痛苦的挣扎过程。在他不断地总结和学习中，他做到了清醒地面对“痛苦”。
一定要不停地念价值投资的经，一句简单的“在所有人都觉得悲观失望的时候是我们兴奋出手时机！”----就可以让我们普通投资人用一生的投资时光来感悟！！反之亦然,因为投资做到最后错的永远是大众!!
什么叫清醒？投资领域上讲就是反大众心理来思考问题，就是抓住事物发展的本质来看问题。
提要：
1.本文与“你为什么不能成为巴菲特”不谋而合，重申了强大的心智的重要性。
2.投资成功需要：合理的知识框架+强大的心智。
3.股价=内在价值+流动性造成的供求变化+市场情绪和机构对市场情绪的操纵。
话说心态（上）
在你进入股市的那一天起，假如你不能解决这个心态问题，作为一个价值投资者，这样的郁闷心情将始终不离不弃的陪随着你。就因为未来将进入全流通时代，低成本大小非在下跌过程中会不顾一切卖出的客观存在，大部分各类机构、基金同志的趋势投资，这里就也可能形成恶性循环，所以大起大落将贯穿未来的两三年。也许过一阵子就又要开始下跌了，也许还有可能会创新低。所以，你得做好心理准备，努力的解决这个心态问题。
炒股票的本意是为了赚钱，赚钱的目的是为了提高生活质量，假如你因为炒股票而心情郁闷，甚至睡不好觉，那岂不是得不偿失了。
解决这个心态问题，首先是资金来源、能力自信的问题
1，千万不要借钱炒股。假如你炒股的钱是借来的，那么在下跌的过程中那个心态就好不了，而且容易倾家荡产、夫妻反目，严重影响生活质量。
2，不要在上涨过程中加钱。当你想在上涨过程中加钱的时候，往往就是快要下跌的时候了，如此就得不偿失的。而且很多人炒股的大幅度亏损就是这个原因。比如说，你刚刚的时候进入5万元，在赚了一倍（5万）以后，觉得炒股票很容易，就继续加码进入10万，此时，总资金就成了20万。只要下跌30%（亏损6万），那么你在股市就实实在在的亏损了1万，此时你的心态就好不了。
3，不要把一年内要用的钱进入股市。股市是个说不清楚的地方，谁知道它什么时候涨什么时候跌？最起码我不知道。假如你把需要用的前进入，那么万一下跌以后，你需要花钱了，那个时候就不得不实实在在的割肉亏损。那时候的心态也不可能好的。所以说，炒股票要用“闲钱”。
以上三点相当重要，请朋友们务必重视！请记住：炒股票用闲钱！
4，不要把全部的钱投入股市。在你还没有确认自己能在股市生存的情况下，不要把全部的钱进入股市。这个确认的过程一般来说需要3-5年，需要一轮完整的牛熊交替才能确认。
假如你在股市就差不多一两年时间，恰恰又碰上股市上涨的阶段，在这一两年的时间里你也确确实实的赚钱了，但这并不代表你就能在股市生存。假如你自我感觉良好，把全部资金投入股市，那么就是你的灾难。一旦下跌，你的心态就好不了。
5，不要在大多数人赚钱的时候进入股市。应该在大多数人输钱的时候进入。
6，在股市，绝大多数人是不适合股市的，进入股市的唯一结果就是奉献者。希望你能正确判断自己的能力。
7，不要依赖他人炒股。不要相信电视、报刊杂志，不要轻信某个专家包括我，否则你就没那个自信，造成心态不稳的问题。
炒股票的本意是为了赚钱，赚钱的目的是为了提高生活质量，假如你因为炒股票而心情郁闷，甚至睡不好觉，那岂不是得不偿失了。
解决这个心态问题，首先是资金来源、能力自信的问题
1，千万不要借钱炒股。假如你炒股的钱是借来的，那么在下跌的过程中那个心态就好不了，而且容易倾家荡产、夫妻反目，严重影响生活质量。
2，不要在上涨过程中加钱。当你想在上涨过程中加钱的时候，往往就是快要下跌的时候了，如此就得不偿失的。而且很多人炒股的大幅度亏损就是这个原因。比如说，你刚刚的时候进入5万元，在赚了一倍（5万）以后，觉得炒股票很容易，就继续加码进入10万，此时，总资金就成了20万。只要下跌30%（亏损6万），那么你在股市就实实在在的亏损了1万，此时你的心态就好不了。
3，不要把一年内要用的钱进入股市。股市是个说不清楚的地方，谁知道它什么时候涨什么时候跌？最起码我不知道。假如你把需要用的前进入，那么万一下跌以后，你需要花钱了，那个时候就不得不实实在在的割肉亏损。那时候的心态也不可能好的。所以说，炒股票要用“闲钱”。
以上三点相当重要，请朋友们务必重视！请记住：炒股票用闲钱！
4，不要把全部的钱投入股市。在你还没有确认自己能在股市生存的情况下，不要把全部的钱进入股市。这个确认的过程一般来说需要3-5年，需要一轮完整的牛熊交替才能确认。
假如你在股市就差不多一两年时间，恰恰又碰上股市上涨的阶段，在这一两年的时间里你也确确实实的赚钱了，但这并不代表你就能在股市生存。假如你自我感觉良好，把全部资金投入股市，那么就是你的灾难。一旦下跌，你的心态就好不了。
5，不要在大多数人赚钱的时候进入股市。应该在大多数人输钱的时候进入。
6，在股市，绝大多数人是不适合股市的，进入股市的唯一结果就是奉献者。希望你能正确判断自己的能力。
7，不要依赖他人炒股。不要相信电视、报刊杂志，不要轻信某个专家包括我，否则你就没那个自信，造成心态不稳的问题。
等的时间太长了，不可能上涨了
投资者肯定碰到过这种情况：你一直等待一家公司股价上涨，但等了很久却一直也没有上涨，于是你实在等得不耐烦了就放弃了这只股票，可是就在你卖出这只股票的第二天，你梦寐以求很久的上涨就发生了，我称这种情况为“不卖不涨，一卖就涨”。
默克公司股票就是这样考验着每个投资者的耐心。从1972~1981年，这只股票的股价一动不动，尽管公司盈利平均每年稳步增长14%。后来发生了什么呢？在随后的5年中这只股票股价上涨了4倍。谁知道有多少不幸的投资者因厌烦了长期等待，或者因为他们渴望“行动”而不是“等待”，过早卖出了这只后来上涨了4倍的大牛股。如果他们能够持续追踪公司的发展情况的话，他们肯定不会那样过早地卖出这只大牛股的。
生产职业服装的Angelica公司在1974~1979年间股价上下波动几乎不超过5美分；American Greeting股价整整8年死气沉沉一动不动；GAF Corporation公司股价11年一动不动;Brunswick公司股价在整个20世纪70年代都一直不动；史克制药公司股价一直一动不动，从史克推出泰胃美之前20世纪60年代的后5年一直持续到70年代的前5年；Lukens的股价更是长达14年没有动过。
由于我已经习惯于一直耐心持有一只一动不动的股票，所以我能够一直持有默克股票。大多数情况下我赚到钱的时候都是在我持有一只一动不动的股票三四年之后，只有默克股票让我等了更长的时间。只要公司经营一切正常，原来吸引我购买这家公司股票的因素没有什么变化，那么我就非常自信我的耐心早晚会得到回报。 EKG公司股票已经好几年没有什么波动了，我把这种一条直线似的股价走势称为“一块石头的心电图”，但这却是一个非常好的兆头。每当我看到一只吸引我的股票的股价走势图像一块石头的心电图一样时，我都会把它当做一种强烈的暗示：下一波大涨快要到来了。
持有一家你非常喜欢而所有其他人都毫无兴趣不予理睬的公司股票，的确需要非同寻常的耐心。也许股价一直一动不动会让你开始想是不是别人是对的而我是错的，但是只要公司的基本面表明公司发展前景很好，那么你的耐心通常会得到很高的回报——Lukens公司的股票在15年内上涨了6倍，American Greeting公司的股票在6年内上涨了6倍，Angelica公司的股票4年内上涨了7倍，Brunswick公司的股票6年内上涨了6倍，史克公司的股票2年内上涨了3倍。
默克公司股票就是这样考验着每个投资者的耐心。从1972~1981年，这只股票的股价一动不动，尽管公司盈利平均每年稳步增长14%。后来发生了什么呢？在随后的5年中这只股票股价上涨了4倍。谁知道有多少不幸的投资者因厌烦了长期等待，或者因为他们渴望“行动”而不是“等待”，过早卖出了这只后来上涨了4倍的大牛股。如果他们能够持续追踪公司的发展情况的话，他们肯定不会那样过早地卖出这只大牛股的。
生产职业服装的Angelica公司在1974~1979年间股价上下波动几乎不超过5美分；American Greeting股价整整8年死气沉沉一动不动；GAF Corporation公司股价11年一动不动;Brunswick公司股价在整个20世纪70年代都一直不动；史克制药公司股价一直一动不动，从史克推出泰胃美之前20世纪60年代的后5年一直持续到70年代的前5年；Lukens的股价更是长达14年没有动过。
由于我已经习惯于一直耐心持有一只一动不动的股票，所以我能够一直持有默克股票。大多数情况下我赚到钱的时候都是在我持有一只一动不动的股票三四年之后，只有默克股票让我等了更长的时间。只要公司经营一切正常，原来吸引我购买这家公司股票的因素没有什么变化，那么我就非常自信我的耐心早晚会得到回报。 EKG公司股票已经好几年没有什么波动了，我把这种一条直线似的股价走势称为“一块石头的心电图”，但这却是一个非常好的兆头。每当我看到一只吸引我的股票的股价走势图像一块石头的心电图一样时，我都会把它当做一种强烈的暗示：下一波大涨快要到来了。
持有一家你非常喜欢而所有其他人都毫无兴趣不予理睬的公司股票，的确需要非同寻常的耐心。也许股价一直一动不动会让你开始想是不是别人是对的而我是错的，但是只要公司的基本面表明公司发展前景很好，那么你的耐心通常会得到很高的回报——Lukens公司的股票在15年内上涨了6倍，American Greeting公司的股票在6年内上涨了6倍，Angelica公司的股票4年内上涨了7倍，Brunswick公司的股票6年内上涨了6倍，史克公司的股票2年内上涨了3倍。
话说心态（下）
心态不稳，主要表现在下跌时的恐惧。恐惧来自于三个方面，恐惧来源于非闲钱，恐惧来源于未知价值，恐惧来源于贪婪，这是价值投资者心理成熟的三要素，也是走向成熟的三部曲。
当你解决了以上两个问题后，今天我想说的是：平和的心态来自于合理的预期收益率，来自于与自己能力所匹配的预期收益率。
在我看来，这个贪婪的原因是心理恐惧的首要因素。不过，我知道，这是个很难说清楚的问题，因为大多数人难以认识到这个问题。所以，我可能会罗嗦但说不到点子上。
股市之黑，难以描述。最可怜的是追涨杀跌、乐此不彼的散户，任人宰割。很多人进入股市的目的是发财，一夜暴富，提高生活质量。可惜的是，事与愿违，大多数在股市注定是奉献者或者说成为亏损一族。
这其中的缘由，归根结底：都是贪婪惹的祸！
当我写下这个标题时，我知道，多数人不会同意我这个判断。人性有两大弱点，贪婪与恐惧，这两大弱点，足以让正常人、聪明人的思维或者说人性扭曲。但恐惧怎么可能来源于贪婪呢？
我相信，由于这几天银行股的连续下跌，很多人会恐惧，不知道什么时候见底？人心惶惶，怀疑价值的有之，怀疑自己的有之，怀疑我的更多。我用一句话来总结就是：恐惧来源于贪婪，都是贪婪惹的祸！
假如用一句话来解释就是：假如你不贪婪，那么你恐惧什么？没什么可恐惧的！
在这里的老朋友们大多数持有银行股，我在年初的时候就发表过一个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告。至今，这个分析报告依然有效，没必要修改。就因为银行股其实是个稳定型成长性或者说弱周期行业，决不是某些人所说的强周期行业。当然，其中也会存在着起起伏伏。
假如你相信这个未来 “ 银行股十年十倍 ” ，那么，目前的下跌算什么？无非就是过程中的波动而已，到时候所获就是了，没什么可恐惧的。
当然，假如你压根儿不相信这个“银行股十年十倍”的分析报告，那么你完全有理由恐惧。其次，假如你不满足于这个十年十倍的收益，那么你的恐惧完全有道理，这就是我今天想说的问题。
十年十倍的收益意味着什么呢？十年十倍意味着年均复利26%。连续十年的年均26%复利意味着什么呢？意味着你在证券市场可以列入高手的行列，大部分基金同志们还做不到（老鼠仓除外）呢。
你要知道，股神巴菲特的年均复利好像是23%，华尔街顶尖基金高手林奇的年均复利29%。你想成为世界第一股神？你想成为世界第一富豪？你想获取全世界的财富为个人所有，把你私有化以后的工商银行随手送给你的情人说小意思小意思？
其实，我知道你也不会如此去想，也不敢如此想。那么，如此，你，还怕什么？恐惧什么？
其实，其深层次原因就是你想多多赚钱，贪婪的赚钱。所以，我说，恐惧来源于贪婪！
其实，让我说，你与其去恐惧，还不如去认真的研究一下我《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告，看看其中是否有道理？看看有没有明显的漏洞？看看是否能真正的实现这个十年十倍的问题。等待着你觉得没问题的时候，你的恐惧就会自然而然的消除。
另外，不要眼红那些一年一倍的高手，那是不能持续的，最起码我还没见过能长期一年一倍的人物。假如有，那么他肯定是个天才，而且必然是潜在的世界首富，我们只能佩服而不能眼红。
在这里，我可以大言不惭的和心存恐惧的朋友们说，就长期来说，我还没有看见过能超过我的人物。但一时一地超过我的人比比皆是，在这里的老朋友中就有很多。
我去那个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告看了一下，在那里我并没有把计算附表附在里面，现在我就把那个附表放在下面吧。
银行股未来十年十倍 投入1万元
在这个表格中，投资于银行股的十年以后的结果是9.89倍。年均复利25.75%。在这里，并没有每年做差价的收益，就是傻傻的拿着不动的收益。当然，在这里需要说明的是，这个银行股十年十倍只是个概念，并不是肯定有十年十倍的收益，有可能不到，有可能超过。同时，现在需要说明的是，目前传闻中的资本充足率、次级债的或有可能的政策调整，并不影响这个预期收益率。
对于我们在未来的投资过程中需要对照的就三个数据，一是经营业绩的增长率；二是当前的市场估值即市盈率；三是你的实际当期收益率。假如收益率水平超过市盈率水平，那么就说明没问题；假如收益率低于市盈率水平，那么就说明你的选择有问题，或者是业绩的成长性有问题。至于说采用动态市盈率还是静态市盈率为基准的问题，这个完全可以用你自己的想法来决定。
比如说，09年相对应的市盈率是12倍，收益率是66%。就拿我现在实验帐户的浦发银行来说，08年的每股净利润是1.58元，按照12倍的市盈率计算就是18元，实际上今天上午浦发的收盘价是19元，今年的收益率是99%，收益率超过这个市盈率预测值，就说明我们已经超额完成了这个计划。而且，收益率的超额幅度大于市盈率的超额幅度，那么就没什么可怕的。在这里，假如我按照09年的每股净利润来计算这个市盈率，那么就更低。
也就是说，在未来的投资过程中，假如这个收益率你刚刚达标，但手中股票的市盈率水平却超过了预测市盈率水平，那么就说明有问题了。得想办法解决这个问题。
另外，我向朋友们建议：当你为下跌而恐惧时，就去认真的阅读一下这个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告，也许，就能减轻你的恐惧感。我想，等待着你烂熟于心的时刻，你的恐惧会自然的消失。
当你解决了以上两个问题后，今天我想说的是：平和的心态来自于合理的预期收益率，来自于与自己能力所匹配的预期收益率。
在我看来，这个贪婪的原因是心理恐惧的首要因素。不过，我知道，这是个很难说清楚的问题，因为大多数人难以认识到这个问题。所以，我可能会罗嗦但说不到点子上。
股市之黑，难以描述。最可怜的是追涨杀跌、乐此不彼的散户，任人宰割。很多人进入股市的目的是发财，一夜暴富，提高生活质量。可惜的是，事与愿违，大多数在股市注定是奉献者或者说成为亏损一族。
这其中的缘由，归根结底：都是贪婪惹的祸！
当我写下这个标题时，我知道，多数人不会同意我这个判断。人性有两大弱点，贪婪与恐惧，这两大弱点，足以让正常人、聪明人的思维或者说人性扭曲。但恐惧怎么可能来源于贪婪呢？
我相信，由于这几天银行股的连续下跌，很多人会恐惧，不知道什么时候见底？人心惶惶，怀疑价值的有之，怀疑自己的有之，怀疑我的更多。我用一句话来总结就是：恐惧来源于贪婪，都是贪婪惹的祸！
假如用一句话来解释就是：假如你不贪婪，那么你恐惧什么？没什么可恐惧的！
在这里的老朋友们大多数持有银行股，我在年初的时候就发表过一个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告。至今，这个分析报告依然有效，没必要修改。就因为银行股其实是个稳定型成长性或者说弱周期行业，决不是某些人所说的强周期行业。当然，其中也会存在着起起伏伏。
假如你相信这个未来 “ 银行股十年十倍 ” ，那么，目前的下跌算什么？无非就是过程中的波动而已，到时候所获就是了，没什么可恐惧的。
当然，假如你压根儿不相信这个“银行股十年十倍”的分析报告，那么你完全有理由恐惧。其次，假如你不满足于这个十年十倍的收益，那么你的恐惧完全有道理，这就是我今天想说的问题。
十年十倍的收益意味着什么呢？十年十倍意味着年均复利26%。连续十年的年均26%复利意味着什么呢？意味着你在证券市场可以列入高手的行列，大部分基金同志们还做不到（老鼠仓除外）呢。
你要知道，股神巴菲特的年均复利好像是23%，华尔街顶尖基金高手林奇的年均复利29%。你想成为世界第一股神？你想成为世界第一富豪？你想获取全世界的财富为个人所有，把你私有化以后的工商银行随手送给你的情人说小意思小意思？
其实，我知道你也不会如此去想，也不敢如此想。那么，如此，你，还怕什么？恐惧什么？
其实，其深层次原因就是你想多多赚钱，贪婪的赚钱。所以，我说，恐惧来源于贪婪！
其实，让我说，你与其去恐惧，还不如去认真的研究一下我《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告，看看其中是否有道理？看看有没有明显的漏洞？看看是否能真正的实现这个十年十倍的问题。等待着你觉得没问题的时候，你的恐惧就会自然而然的消除。
另外，不要眼红那些一年一倍的高手，那是不能持续的，最起码我还没见过能长期一年一倍的人物。假如有，那么他肯定是个天才，而且必然是潜在的世界首富，我们只能佩服而不能眼红。
在这里，我可以大言不惭的和心存恐惧的朋友们说，就长期来说，我还没有看见过能超过我的人物。但一时一地超过我的人比比皆是，在这里的老朋友中就有很多。
我去那个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告看了一下，在那里我并没有把计算附表附在里面，现在我就把那个附表放在下面吧。
银行股未来十年十倍 投入1万元
在这个表格中，投资于银行股的十年以后的结果是9.89倍。年均复利25.75%。在这里，并没有每年做差价的收益，就是傻傻的拿着不动的收益。当然，在这里需要说明的是，这个银行股十年十倍只是个概念，并不是肯定有十年十倍的收益，有可能不到，有可能超过。同时，现在需要说明的是，目前传闻中的资本充足率、次级债的或有可能的政策调整，并不影响这个预期收益率。
对于我们在未来的投资过程中需要对照的就三个数据，一是经营业绩的增长率；二是当前的市场估值即市盈率；三是你的实际当期收益率。假如收益率水平超过市盈率水平，那么就说明没问题；假如收益率低于市盈率水平，那么就说明你的选择有问题，或者是业绩的成长性有问题。至于说采用动态市盈率还是静态市盈率为基准的问题，这个完全可以用你自己的想法来决定。
比如说，09年相对应的市盈率是12倍，收益率是66%。就拿我现在实验帐户的浦发银行来说，08年的每股净利润是1.58元，按照12倍的市盈率计算就是18元，实际上今天上午浦发的收盘价是19元，今年的收益率是99%，收益率超过这个市盈率预测值，就说明我们已经超额完成了这个计划。而且，收益率的超额幅度大于市盈率的超额幅度，那么就没什么可怕的。在这里，假如我按照09年的每股净利润来计算这个市盈率，那么就更低。
也就是说，在未来的投资过程中，假如这个收益率你刚刚达标，但手中股票的市盈率水平却超过了预测市盈率水平，那么就说明有问题了。得想办法解决这个问题。
另外，我向朋友们建议：当你为下跌而恐惧时，就去认真的阅读一下这个《银行股十年十倍》的分析报告，也许，就能减轻你的恐惧感。我想，等待着你烂熟于心的时刻，你的恐惧会自然的消失。
不要怕 不要悔
2007年4月股市摸上4000点大关，许多人匆匆跨入股海，准备淘金。一位同事问我:可不可以购买基金?我笑着和他说了一个故事。
在一个穷山村里，有一个年轻人想要去外面闯一闯。他自己拿不定主意，就去请教村里一位德高望重的老人。老人笑着对他说了三个字：“不要怕！”年轻人就做出了走出去的打算。临走前，老人对他说:“ 等你哪天回来，我还有三个字要告诉你。”许多年后，年轻人衣锦还乡，可是老人已经去世了。他的家人告诉他老人给他的遗言，就是那未告诉他的三个字：“不要悔！”
人来到这个世界上，从无到有，又从有到无，你所获得的财富最后还是不能带走。如果你安于现状，你就永远不知道什么是成功，什么是失败，你就永远不能出人头地。如果你闯出去，即使你失败了，你也不要后悔，因为经历就是你最大的财富。
同事听了我说的这个故事后，笑着对我说： “ 谢谢你，我知道应该怎么做了。 ”
如今，两年过去了，同事经历了2007年的狂热和2008年的暴跌洗礼。他当时在4000多点买入的基金在现在3000点的关口仍然有超过10%的收益。而当许多人向他请教时，他也常常笑着把我说的故事告诉别人。
在一个穷山村里，有一个年轻人想要去外面闯一闯。他自己拿不定主意，就去请教村里一位德高望重的老人。老人笑着对他说了三个字：“不要怕！”年轻人就做出了走出去的打算。临走前，老人对他说:“ 等你哪天回来，我还有三个字要告诉你。”许多年后，年轻人衣锦还乡，可是老人已经去世了。他的家人告诉他老人给他的遗言，就是那未告诉他的三个字：“不要悔！”
人来到这个世界上，从无到有，又从有到无，你所获得的财富最后还是不能带走。如果你安于现状，你就永远不知道什么是成功，什么是失败，你就永远不能出人头地。如果你闯出去，即使你失败了，你也不要后悔，因为经历就是你最大的财富。
同事听了我说的这个故事后，笑着对我说： “ 谢谢你，我知道应该怎么做了。 ”
如今，两年过去了，同事经历了2007年的狂热和2008年的暴跌洗礼。他当时在4000多点买入的基金在现在3000点的关口仍然有超过10%的收益。而当许多人向他请教时，他也常常笑着把我说的故事告诉别人。
Sunday, August 23, 2009
活就要活得精彩：无法改变事情，可以改变心情
飞机因发生故障即将坠落，人们惊恐万分，有个老人衣着整齐地静静坐在座椅上，有人问他为什么还能如此镇静，老人说：“事情已无法改变，此时我能做的只有保持自己的风度。”
就业艰难、住房紧张、股份跌停……许多事情我们无法改变，好心情也要被这些无法改变的事情一扫而空吗？别人可以偷走你的金钱，可以破坏你的地位，可以践踏你的尊严，但永远扼杀不了你那颗各级乐观的心，活就要活得精彩！
在我们碰到棘手的问题时，必须先静下来、勿冲动行事。既然木已成舟。请以美好的姿态去面对一切。本书不会帮您立竿见影地解决问题，但会改变你面对问题的心情。
很多时候，我们都喜欢假设，假设自己非常漂亮身材又好、假设当初能再坚持一下、假设我嫁给了爱我的人而不是我爱的人、假设第一次创业没有失败等等，如果这些假设都能够成立，那么这个世界一定会变得非常完美，至少是我们认为的圆满。
遗憾的是，人生不过是一张单程车票，所有走过的、经历过的都成为不可更改的事实和历史。如果这些事实是幸运的，带着祝福，带着快乐，我们自然愿意欢欢喜喜地接受。如果是不幸的，带着伤害，带着眼泪，我们的心就会排斥，不愿接受，就会掉进各种假设的陷阱，悔恨、懊恼、失望、自责，直至身心俱疲。无论你愿意接受还是不愿意接受，这就是生活的真相，且无法更改一丝一毫。
前言
1．学会接受生活的真相
2．不要让天气牵着心情走
3．生活是不公平的，你要去适应它
4．将郁闷的事情及心情一起留在过去
5．让别人适应你不如你去适应别人
6．改变不了环境，就改变自己
7．输什么，也不能输了好心情
8．改变心情，改变事情的结果
9．无法左右事情，可以左右心情
打造心境，再苦也要笑一笑
如果痛苦是一勺盐，我们用什么容器来盛，是水杯，是盆，还是池塘、河流，决定了痛苦带给我们的感觉。
从前有一位大师，他有一位徒弟每天都愁眉苦脸、喋喋不休地抱怨。一天，他看到徒弟又是一脸苦瓜相，就让他去取一些盐回来。当徒弟很不情愿地把盐取回来后，大师就让徒弟把盐倒进一个水杯里，搅拌使其溶化，然后喝一口。徒弟喝了一口立即吐了出来，皱着眉说：“咸死了。”
1．绽放在死神面前的微笑
2．承受痛苦的容器大了，痛苦的感觉就淡了
3．苦日子也要过甜
4．没有命中注定的不幸，只有死不放手的执著
5．人生没有过不去的事，只有过不去的人
6．勇于承受生命之重
7．生活就是去解决一个个难题
8．没有不快乐的生活，只有不肯快乐的心
9．海上没有不带伤的船,海上没有不带伤的船
正视缺憾，完美主义是心灵的鸦片
希望自己的形象变得完美一点，希望自己做的事完美一点，将完美作为自己的一个努力方向，这当然很好。但也有很多人不仅仅是在追求完美，而是处处苛求完美，将其当成了自己一生的终极追求，以致掉进了这个漂亮的陷阱，随之而来的是心情焦虑、紧张、孤独，精神备受折磨。
1．完美主义是一个漂亮的陷阱
2．拥有尊重事实的能力
3．用平常心接纳自己
4．缺憾也是一种幸福
5．部分人满意就够了
6．不一定要争第一
7．抱怨别人，不如改变自己
8．做自己的主人
9．不要拿别人的标准来衡量自己
10．选择自己喜欢的，而不是别人喜欢的
生气不如争气，不要被情绪牵着鼻子走
情绪是可以传染的，不管是积极还是消极的情绪都具有传染的因子。如果是好的情绪自然好，但我们能受好情绪的感染，也会受到别人负面情绪的影响。
清早，唐华刚刚进入工作状态，就听到坐在对面的陆强气呼呼地说：“迟到两分钟就要扣钱，真不是人过的日子。扣吧，真没劲，早想跳槽了。”
1．做情绪的主人
2．冲动的惩罚最严厉
3．你容易被别人的坏情绪感染吗
4．别人愈是愤怒，你愈是要冷静
5．突遭危机，从容不迫是高手
6．不靠心情好坏来做事
7．心烦意乱不如静下心来
8．不要把坏情绪带到工作中
9．一手拉着律师，一手拉着心理医生
10．你有多长时间没哭过
11．别把心长时间泡在抱怨的“污水”里
12．把负面情绪变成生命的礼物
就业艰难、住房紧张、股份跌停……许多事情我们无法改变，好心情也要被这些无法改变的事情一扫而空吗？别人可以偷走你的金钱，可以破坏你的地位，可以践踏你的尊严，但永远扼杀不了你那颗各级乐观的心，活就要活得精彩！
在我们碰到棘手的问题时，必须先静下来、勿冲动行事。既然木已成舟。请以美好的姿态去面对一切。本书不会帮您立竿见影地解决问题，但会改变你面对问题的心情。
很多时候，我们都喜欢假设，假设自己非常漂亮身材又好、假设当初能再坚持一下、假设我嫁给了爱我的人而不是我爱的人、假设第一次创业没有失败等等，如果这些假设都能够成立，那么这个世界一定会变得非常完美，至少是我们认为的圆满。
遗憾的是，人生不过是一张单程车票，所有走过的、经历过的都成为不可更改的事实和历史。如果这些事实是幸运的，带着祝福，带着快乐，我们自然愿意欢欢喜喜地接受。如果是不幸的，带着伤害，带着眼泪，我们的心就会排斥，不愿接受，就会掉进各种假设的陷阱，悔恨、懊恼、失望、自责，直至身心俱疲。无论你愿意接受还是不愿意接受，这就是生活的真相，且无法更改一丝一毫。
前言
1．学会接受生活的真相
2．不要让天气牵着心情走
3．生活是不公平的，你要去适应它
4．将郁闷的事情及心情一起留在过去
5．让别人适应你不如你去适应别人
6．改变不了环境，就改变自己
7．输什么，也不能输了好心情
8．改变心情，改变事情的结果
9．无法左右事情，可以左右心情
打造心境，再苦也要笑一笑
如果痛苦是一勺盐，我们用什么容器来盛，是水杯，是盆，还是池塘、河流，决定了痛苦带给我们的感觉。
从前有一位大师，他有一位徒弟每天都愁眉苦脸、喋喋不休地抱怨。一天，他看到徒弟又是一脸苦瓜相，就让他去取一些盐回来。当徒弟很不情愿地把盐取回来后，大师就让徒弟把盐倒进一个水杯里，搅拌使其溶化，然后喝一口。徒弟喝了一口立即吐了出来，皱着眉说：“咸死了。”
1．绽放在死神面前的微笑
2．承受痛苦的容器大了，痛苦的感觉就淡了
3．苦日子也要过甜
4．没有命中注定的不幸，只有死不放手的执著
5．人生没有过不去的事，只有过不去的人
6．勇于承受生命之重
7．生活就是去解决一个个难题
8．没有不快乐的生活，只有不肯快乐的心
9．海上没有不带伤的船,海上没有不带伤的船
正视缺憾，完美主义是心灵的鸦片
希望自己的形象变得完美一点，希望自己做的事完美一点，将完美作为自己的一个努力方向，这当然很好。但也有很多人不仅仅是在追求完美，而是处处苛求完美，将其当成了自己一生的终极追求，以致掉进了这个漂亮的陷阱，随之而来的是心情焦虑、紧张、孤独，精神备受折磨。
1．完美主义是一个漂亮的陷阱
2．拥有尊重事实的能力
3．用平常心接纳自己
4．缺憾也是一种幸福
5．部分人满意就够了
6．不一定要争第一
7．抱怨别人，不如改变自己
8．做自己的主人
9．不要拿别人的标准来衡量自己
10．选择自己喜欢的，而不是别人喜欢的
生气不如争气，不要被情绪牵着鼻子走
情绪是可以传染的，不管是积极还是消极的情绪都具有传染的因子。如果是好的情绪自然好，但我们能受好情绪的感染，也会受到别人负面情绪的影响。
清早，唐华刚刚进入工作状态，就听到坐在对面的陆强气呼呼地说：“迟到两分钟就要扣钱，真不是人过的日子。扣吧，真没劲，早想跳槽了。”
1．做情绪的主人
2．冲动的惩罚最严厉
3．你容易被别人的坏情绪感染吗
4．别人愈是愤怒，你愈是要冷静
5．突遭危机，从容不迫是高手
6．不靠心情好坏来做事
7．心烦意乱不如静下心来
8．不要把坏情绪带到工作中
9．一手拉着律师，一手拉着心理医生
10．你有多长时间没哭过
11．别把心长时间泡在抱怨的“污水”里
12．把负面情绪变成生命的礼物
寻找快乐的源泉
寻找快乐是生命的本能，也是生活的技巧，当感觉自己快乐时，快乐就会陪着你，而你觉得不快乐时，快乐就会远离你。活得精彩也许不容易，但是要活得快乐相对容易多了，所以不精彩的人生，一定要快乐，其实快乐的人生已经是精彩的人生，不可强求，不可不求。现在的社会，物质的飞速发展，社会的变革，不注意就被抛弃出快乐的轨道，没有人完全可以不在意身边事物，因为我们是社会的人，生存是第一要素。生存的压力已经超越了吃饱、穿暖，接下来还有住和行；然后是社会地位和本人价值的体现。而升学、就业、提职又是摆在我们面前的系列问题，一个闪失，就会从高处掉到地上，一点停滞，后面的人就会追上来，所以我们很多时间已经被迫的去做超越本身可以承载的事情，因此忙碌、迷乱、心慌、失眠、亚健康等疾病缠绕着我们，让我们的心理压力过大，甚至倦怠、痛苦、失落、迷茫，在这些心理、生理、生活重重压力之下，快乐让我们可望而不可及。
其实想来快乐很简单，因为它不需要你用金钱购买，不需要用身份换取，快乐是一种心态，一种感觉，是自己的情绪，是可以控制和争取的。它没有遥不可及，孩子在玩耍泥土时是快乐的，他不需要担心衣服脏，不担心有人笑他不讲究卫生，玩耍的过程就是快乐的过程。所以回忆童年时，很多时间觉得很快乐，是因为这些快乐是真实的，没有担忧、没有牵挂、没有干扰，只是为了玩耍而玩耍的快乐。当我们长大了就不能去玩泥巴了，因为那是孩子的游戏，可你能说这不是快乐吗？快乐是自己的，别人无法替代也带不走，快乐是一种人生体念，没有统一的标准和方法，创造是人生的义务，享受是人生的权利。因此在我们为生活而工作的时候，何不把工作当成寻找快乐的过程，兢兢业业，踏踏实实的做好每一件事情，在做的过程里学会享受，而不是要达到一个什么要求，为了升职，为了往上爬而做，这样也许你的心态就会平和很多，做完了当天的事情笑一笑，为自己的付出感到满意就已经快乐，何必太在意结果呢？患得患失最后累的是自己的心，很多东西不可把握，可遇不可求，坦然处之，龙还要游浅滩，虎也有落平阳的时候，我们的一时之失算什么呢，不妨都把这些不得意做自己的磨砺吧，也许风雨过后的彩虹更美丽，学会在工作里寻找快乐，在过程里把握快乐，快乐就长在身边。
对待生活里的事情要宽容，不要用别人的错误惩罚自己，要知道人为自己而活，为快乐而活，一个快乐的人生已经是有意义的人生。要换位思考，站在别人的角度来看问题，也许你会发现很多东西没有那么糟糕，对你的敌人笑一笑，相逢一笑泯恩仇，人性是相通的，用你宽大的胸怀包容不可容之事，事过境迁你会为自己曾经的宽容获得友谊、真诚、品德，这些都是用金钱无法衡量和买到的。不懂得快乐的人是失败的人，你即便拥有很多物质、财富，拥有很高的地位和荣誉，如果你不快乐，这些东西对你而言，不过是包裹你肉体之外的烦琐之物，有什么意义！对一个有着千万家产和一贫如洗的穷人，能比较的只是财富，不能比较的是快乐。看过那个在海边晒太阳的渔夫，你能说他不快乐吗？每个人的喜好不同，快乐就不同，作家为自己的作品快乐，商人为自己的利益快乐，农民为自己的收成快乐，当你什么都没有，你也要为你自己的没有快乐。有句话“光脚的不怕穿鞋的。”可以理解为我什么都没有，所以我不担心失去，不担心还有人来伤害我，所以我应该快乐，快乐在自己的心，在自己的感觉里，你觉得你是快乐的快乐就会陪伴你。
过重的生活无法承受，过轻的生活又相当的煎熬人，因此很多时间要给自己释放压力，放松心态，把事情分开来看，分开来做，不要一味的去看重它的结果，寻觅的路上，你要看到花开是快乐的，花落也是快乐的，季节转换是必然，为什么不可以把眼光放长远一点呢？人生何处不青山？走死胡同，一条路走到黑，累的是自己的心，未必有人理解，和朋友喝茶、聊天、谈心也是快乐，不要把心锁得太久，要相信朋友，信任别人，也在别人的信任里得到情谊和帮助。如果暂时不如意，不要太在意，在一草一木里看人生，对着镜子笑笑，你会发现天很蓝，云很白，我很快乐，有了快乐的心情做事情才会轻松，事半功倍，不要忙碌了心趣味全无，生命的过程就是快乐的过程。累了就停下来，听听音乐，看看书，不要为难自己，要知道这个世界没有你，并没有什么不同，没有了你地球照样转，因此不要把什么都加在自己身上。对亲人、朋友、同事要常记在心，不要让工作遗忘了他们，收获感情你的成功才会因为有人分享而更有价值。有一个健康的身体也值得你快乐，要知道现在的社会是有什么别有病，没什么别没钱，那么高的药费，你有病就会没有钱，也许你付出那么多，会因为一场疾病让你什么都失去，所以你必须快乐，快乐的心态才会让你的身体更健康。
当我们什么都没有的时候，你还有健康的身体，温暖的家庭，知己和朋友，这些都是值得你快乐的，因此别抱怨你没有足够的人民币，没有很体面的工作，没有一个和你才华相匹配的地位，这些东西有当然幸福，没有也不要郁闷，你还有你自己，有自己的人生已经是快乐的人生。所以把握现在，充实的、有意义的度过每一天，宽容你身边的人，真诚的对待朋友，快乐的看待得失，潇洒的面对生活，不去强求太多不可求之事，努力的、愉悦的过每一天，让每一天的生活都有价值和意义，人都是自己命运的主宰，可以通过改变自己来改变命运，即便你的付出和收获不一致，也不要抱怨和哀叹，要学会比上不足、比下有余，把劳动的过程划分为享受的片断，笑对人生，宽容自己、宽容别人，快乐就在你身边，快乐的人生就是幸福的、充实的、有意义的、有价值的、成功的人生，如此生活，快乐已经是全部。
其实想来快乐很简单，因为它不需要你用金钱购买，不需要用身份换取，快乐是一种心态，一种感觉，是自己的情绪，是可以控制和争取的。它没有遥不可及，孩子在玩耍泥土时是快乐的，他不需要担心衣服脏，不担心有人笑他不讲究卫生，玩耍的过程就是快乐的过程。所以回忆童年时，很多时间觉得很快乐，是因为这些快乐是真实的，没有担忧、没有牵挂、没有干扰，只是为了玩耍而玩耍的快乐。当我们长大了就不能去玩泥巴了，因为那是孩子的游戏，可你能说这不是快乐吗？快乐是自己的，别人无法替代也带不走，快乐是一种人生体念，没有统一的标准和方法，创造是人生的义务，享受是人生的权利。因此在我们为生活而工作的时候，何不把工作当成寻找快乐的过程，兢兢业业，踏踏实实的做好每一件事情，在做的过程里学会享受，而不是要达到一个什么要求，为了升职，为了往上爬而做，这样也许你的心态就会平和很多，做完了当天的事情笑一笑，为自己的付出感到满意就已经快乐，何必太在意结果呢？患得患失最后累的是自己的心，很多东西不可把握，可遇不可求，坦然处之，龙还要游浅滩，虎也有落平阳的时候，我们的一时之失算什么呢，不妨都把这些不得意做自己的磨砺吧，也许风雨过后的彩虹更美丽，学会在工作里寻找快乐，在过程里把握快乐，快乐就长在身边。
对待生活里的事情要宽容，不要用别人的错误惩罚自己，要知道人为自己而活，为快乐而活，一个快乐的人生已经是有意义的人生。要换位思考，站在别人的角度来看问题，也许你会发现很多东西没有那么糟糕，对你的敌人笑一笑，相逢一笑泯恩仇，人性是相通的，用你宽大的胸怀包容不可容之事，事过境迁你会为自己曾经的宽容获得友谊、真诚、品德，这些都是用金钱无法衡量和买到的。不懂得快乐的人是失败的人，你即便拥有很多物质、财富，拥有很高的地位和荣誉，如果你不快乐，这些东西对你而言，不过是包裹你肉体之外的烦琐之物，有什么意义！对一个有着千万家产和一贫如洗的穷人，能比较的只是财富，不能比较的是快乐。看过那个在海边晒太阳的渔夫，你能说他不快乐吗？每个人的喜好不同，快乐就不同，作家为自己的作品快乐，商人为自己的利益快乐，农民为自己的收成快乐，当你什么都没有，你也要为你自己的没有快乐。有句话“光脚的不怕穿鞋的。”可以理解为我什么都没有，所以我不担心失去，不担心还有人来伤害我，所以我应该快乐，快乐在自己的心，在自己的感觉里，你觉得你是快乐的快乐就会陪伴你。
过重的生活无法承受，过轻的生活又相当的煎熬人，因此很多时间要给自己释放压力，放松心态，把事情分开来看，分开来做，不要一味的去看重它的结果，寻觅的路上，你要看到花开是快乐的，花落也是快乐的，季节转换是必然，为什么不可以把眼光放长远一点呢？人生何处不青山？走死胡同，一条路走到黑，累的是自己的心，未必有人理解，和朋友喝茶、聊天、谈心也是快乐，不要把心锁得太久，要相信朋友，信任别人，也在别人的信任里得到情谊和帮助。如果暂时不如意，不要太在意，在一草一木里看人生，对着镜子笑笑，你会发现天很蓝，云很白，我很快乐，有了快乐的心情做事情才会轻松，事半功倍，不要忙碌了心趣味全无，生命的过程就是快乐的过程。累了就停下来，听听音乐，看看书，不要为难自己，要知道这个世界没有你，并没有什么不同，没有了你地球照样转，因此不要把什么都加在自己身上。对亲人、朋友、同事要常记在心，不要让工作遗忘了他们，收获感情你的成功才会因为有人分享而更有价值。有一个健康的身体也值得你快乐，要知道现在的社会是有什么别有病，没什么别没钱，那么高的药费，你有病就会没有钱，也许你付出那么多，会因为一场疾病让你什么都失去，所以你必须快乐，快乐的心态才会让你的身体更健康。
当我们什么都没有的时候，你还有健康的身体，温暖的家庭，知己和朋友，这些都是值得你快乐的，因此别抱怨你没有足够的人民币，没有很体面的工作，没有一个和你才华相匹配的地位，这些东西有当然幸福，没有也不要郁闷，你还有你自己，有自己的人生已经是快乐的人生。所以把握现在，充实的、有意义的度过每一天，宽容你身边的人，真诚的对待朋友，快乐的看待得失，潇洒的面对生活，不去强求太多不可求之事，努力的、愉悦的过每一天，让每一天的生活都有价值和意义，人都是自己命运的主宰，可以通过改变自己来改变命运，即便你的付出和收获不一致，也不要抱怨和哀叹，要学会比上不足、比下有余，把劳动的过程划分为享受的片断，笑对人生，宽容自己、宽容别人，快乐就在你身边，快乐的人生就是幸福的、充实的、有意义的、有价值的、成功的人生，如此生活，快乐已经是全部。
Saturday, August 15, 2009
A Bull Market That Lasts Forever?
Stocks around the world are up, the fundamentals are improving, and over in Europe, says an August 13 Bloomberg report, the economies "...barely contracted in the second quarter as Germany and France unexpectedly returned to growth, suggesting Europe’s worst recession since World War II is coming to an end."
Inevitably, the absolute majority of analysts and investors see economic improvements as positive for the stock market. They even go one step further and say that there are "feedback loops" between the two: As the economy improves, stocks rise; as stocks rise, the economy improves -- and round and round they go. (Reverse that if the economy or stock fall.) Last summer, for example, the International Monetary Fund issued this statement (emphasis added):
"Global financial markets continue to be fragile and indicators of systemic risks remain elevated. The downside risks… [are] leading to a negative feedback loop between the financial system and the broader economy."
At first glance, the idea of "feedback loops" makes sense... but let's take a closer look. Stocks have rallied since March of this year. If the economy and stock market really work in a "loop," won't this bull phase continue forever -- literally?
Think about it. The improving fundamentals boost the economy, goes the story. In turn, the improving economy benefits the financial system and the stock market -- and they do it in a "loop": Each step higher by one creates an even higher step by the other. If you continue this logic, not only should this bull phase last forever -- it will also get progressively better as the economy and financial markets improve each other further and further.
Clearly, that's a fantasy. If "feedback loops" really existed, either a bull or a bear market would last forever: Good times would perpetuate everlasting euphoria, and bad times would propagate eternal pessimism. But in real life, we have manias and crashes, economic booms and busts. Ironically, in bull markets, the better things seem to be, the harder we fall -- just think back to the real estate crash or to the summer of 2007, when the DJIA topped amidst "the goldilocks economy." And in bear markets, the worst news usually comes just before things turn around; it's no accident that stocks bottomed in March, when most fundamentals were at their worst.
I'm not the first one to pick up on the idea that "feedback loops" between the economy and stocks are not real. Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International's founder and president, came to this logical conclusion years ago in his Pioneering Studies in Socionomics (Chapter 27):
"I used to think that mood formed a feedback loop with events, which in turn reinforced the mood. I have since seen that this idea is erroneous. … If events formed a feedback loop with mood, then social trends would never end. Each new extreme in mood in a particular direction would cause more reinforcing actions, and those actions would reinforce that same mood, and so on forever. This is an untenable idea."
We at EWI have been forecasting the markets and the economy for 30 years, and we know that it's not "loops" that create booms and busts; people's collective emotions do. If you want real answers about the causes and likely duration of this bull phase, Elliott wave analysis has them.
Inevitably, the absolute majority of analysts and investors see economic improvements as positive for the stock market. They even go one step further and say that there are "feedback loops" between the two: As the economy improves, stocks rise; as stocks rise, the economy improves -- and round and round they go. (Reverse that if the economy or stock fall.) Last summer, for example, the International Monetary Fund issued this statement (emphasis added):
"Global financial markets continue to be fragile and indicators of systemic risks remain elevated. The downside risks… [are] leading to a negative feedback loop between the financial system and the broader economy."
At first glance, the idea of "feedback loops" makes sense... but let's take a closer look. Stocks have rallied since March of this year. If the economy and stock market really work in a "loop," won't this bull phase continue forever -- literally?
Think about it. The improving fundamentals boost the economy, goes the story. In turn, the improving economy benefits the financial system and the stock market -- and they do it in a "loop": Each step higher by one creates an even higher step by the other. If you continue this logic, not only should this bull phase last forever -- it will also get progressively better as the economy and financial markets improve each other further and further.
Clearly, that's a fantasy. If "feedback loops" really existed, either a bull or a bear market would last forever: Good times would perpetuate everlasting euphoria, and bad times would propagate eternal pessimism. But in real life, we have manias and crashes, economic booms and busts. Ironically, in bull markets, the better things seem to be, the harder we fall -- just think back to the real estate crash or to the summer of 2007, when the DJIA topped amidst "the goldilocks economy." And in bear markets, the worst news usually comes just before things turn around; it's no accident that stocks bottomed in March, when most fundamentals were at their worst.
I'm not the first one to pick up on the idea that "feedback loops" between the economy and stocks are not real. Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International's founder and president, came to this logical conclusion years ago in his Pioneering Studies in Socionomics (Chapter 27):
"I used to think that mood formed a feedback loop with events, which in turn reinforced the mood. I have since seen that this idea is erroneous. … If events formed a feedback loop with mood, then social trends would never end. Each new extreme in mood in a particular direction would cause more reinforcing actions, and those actions would reinforce that same mood, and so on forever. This is an untenable idea."
We at EWI have been forecasting the markets and the economy for 30 years, and we know that it's not "loops" that create booms and busts; people's collective emotions do. If you want real answers about the causes and likely duration of this bull phase, Elliott wave analysis has them.
Eight reasons why you're still single
You’re independent, decent-looking and financially stable. You have lots to offer, yet you’re still single.
If you can’t understand why you’ve not found the right person, maybe you’ve been guilty of the classic mistakes many singles make.
See if any of the reasons below describe you perfectly, and perhaps it's time to think about ways to remedy your predicament.
Reason #1: You are as busy as a bee
Your career is your first love, and ambition flows fervently through your veins. You thought you could find a partner after rising to the top of the corporate ladder, but you’ve since realized there is no end to the climb.
Having spent most of your time focusing on getting ahead, you’ve lost sight of your social life and now you have no clue where to begin searching for your life partner. But just remember that you have to make time for the things that matter to you.
Reason #2: You value your independence over being ‘tied down’ by a partner
When you were younger, being single and independent was enticing, as you could do anything you wanted without being accountable to someone else.
But being in a relationship involves plenty of commitment, sacrifice and compromise. Even though you’re probably in the habit of doing things on your own terms, sometimes a little change is good.
Your daily routines are not set in stone; try to let go and be more open to allow someone in. You can invite that special someone into your life and still have your freedom (plus you now have newfound freedom to share transparently and intimately with your partner.)
Reason #3: You don’t try hard enough
Good things in life don’t come for free.
If you’re sitting around the house, moping and waiting for the right person to somehow fall from the sky, your chances of success are slim. It sounds intimidating and stressful, but the more you put yourself out there, the more opportunities you have to meet your ideal match.
Sure, you’ll have to sift through several unlikely candidates before meeting someone with promise, but it’ll be worth it.
When you put in the time and effort to expand your social circle, you’ll find yourself making more friends, and potential prospects will come naturally along the way.
Reason #4: You have high standards that are impossible to meet
If your checklist includes requirements like tall, good-looking, fit, intelligent, charismatic, rich, and with flawless character traits, chances are you’ll be disappointed.
We all want our life partner to be perfect (or as close to perfection as possible), but somewhere along the line we have to admit that it’s unachievable, because no one is perfect.
You don’t have to lower your standards to include everyone on the street, but if you’re too choosy about qualities you’re looking for in a partner, you may be letting the right person slip through your fingers.
Reason #5: You are too afraid to put yourself out there and meet other people
The thought of being vulnerable and opening up to someone else scares you to death.
Our fears include commitment, failure and rejection; you feel self-conscious and lack the confidence to approach others of the opposite sex.
But all you need is to take that first step to meet new people and engage in simple conversation with them. Once you’ve gotten that initial meeting out of the way, things will go smoother and fall into place easily.
Remember, practice makes perfect.
Reason #6: You have turned bitter and cynical after failed past relationships
We’ve all had our hearts broken (sometimes into several pieces), but it is essential to learn from it and move on. You can’t let your negativity affect you when trying to meet new people, because no one wants to be stuck in the presence of a sour puss.
So take some time to let old wounds heal, then leave all that baggage behind and look forward to starting a new, clean slate with someone else.
Reason #7: You have not made an effort to maintain your appearance consistently
Appearances matter. It’s as simple as that.
We may try to convince ourselves to look past the surface and see the beauty that lies within, but if there is no physical chemistry, the relationship will face a challenging start.
That is not to say that you must look perfectly coiffed during every single second of every single day, but at least attempt to look decent and maintain a good appearance consistently whether at work or play.
You never know when you will bump into a potential partner. So put in the effort to learn the art of grooming, ie. wearing the right colour or style that is uniquely you.
Reason #8: You treasure your possessions more than people
We all have things that we love – our favorite pets, computers, cars, TV shows, gadgets, clothes, and the list goes on.
But keep in mind that these are merely material belongings, and cannot substitute for human companionship. So put aside your valuables for at least one day in a week, and step out into the world to give yourself an opportunity to find love.
With all that said, the main thing is to keep an open mind and be receptive to opportunities. Go out and attend social events. Volunteer your service for charities and make no qualms about trying out dating services or professional matchmaking services.
Now that you’re armed with all this knowledge, it’s time to put yourself out there and start to explore.
If you can’t understand why you’ve not found the right person, maybe you’ve been guilty of the classic mistakes many singles make.
See if any of the reasons below describe you perfectly, and perhaps it's time to think about ways to remedy your predicament.
Reason #1: You are as busy as a bee
Your career is your first love, and ambition flows fervently through your veins. You thought you could find a partner after rising to the top of the corporate ladder, but you’ve since realized there is no end to the climb.
Having spent most of your time focusing on getting ahead, you’ve lost sight of your social life and now you have no clue where to begin searching for your life partner. But just remember that you have to make time for the things that matter to you.
Reason #2: You value your independence over being ‘tied down’ by a partner
When you were younger, being single and independent was enticing, as you could do anything you wanted without being accountable to someone else.
But being in a relationship involves plenty of commitment, sacrifice and compromise. Even though you’re probably in the habit of doing things on your own terms, sometimes a little change is good.
Your daily routines are not set in stone; try to let go and be more open to allow someone in. You can invite that special someone into your life and still have your freedom (plus you now have newfound freedom to share transparently and intimately with your partner.)
Reason #3: You don’t try hard enough
Good things in life don’t come for free.
If you’re sitting around the house, moping and waiting for the right person to somehow fall from the sky, your chances of success are slim. It sounds intimidating and stressful, but the more you put yourself out there, the more opportunities you have to meet your ideal match.
Sure, you’ll have to sift through several unlikely candidates before meeting someone with promise, but it’ll be worth it.
When you put in the time and effort to expand your social circle, you’ll find yourself making more friends, and potential prospects will come naturally along the way.
Reason #4: You have high standards that are impossible to meet
If your checklist includes requirements like tall, good-looking, fit, intelligent, charismatic, rich, and with flawless character traits, chances are you’ll be disappointed.
We all want our life partner to be perfect (or as close to perfection as possible), but somewhere along the line we have to admit that it’s unachievable, because no one is perfect.
You don’t have to lower your standards to include everyone on the street, but if you’re too choosy about qualities you’re looking for in a partner, you may be letting the right person slip through your fingers.
Reason #5: You are too afraid to put yourself out there and meet other people
The thought of being vulnerable and opening up to someone else scares you to death.
Our fears include commitment, failure and rejection; you feel self-conscious and lack the confidence to approach others of the opposite sex.
But all you need is to take that first step to meet new people and engage in simple conversation with them. Once you’ve gotten that initial meeting out of the way, things will go smoother and fall into place easily.
Remember, practice makes perfect.
Reason #6: You have turned bitter and cynical after failed past relationships
We’ve all had our hearts broken (sometimes into several pieces), but it is essential to learn from it and move on. You can’t let your negativity affect you when trying to meet new people, because no one wants to be stuck in the presence of a sour puss.
So take some time to let old wounds heal, then leave all that baggage behind and look forward to starting a new, clean slate with someone else.
Reason #7: You have not made an effort to maintain your appearance consistently
Appearances matter. It’s as simple as that.
We may try to convince ourselves to look past the surface and see the beauty that lies within, but if there is no physical chemistry, the relationship will face a challenging start.
That is not to say that you must look perfectly coiffed during every single second of every single day, but at least attempt to look decent and maintain a good appearance consistently whether at work or play.
You never know when you will bump into a potential partner. So put in the effort to learn the art of grooming, ie. wearing the right colour or style that is uniquely you.
Reason #8: You treasure your possessions more than people
We all have things that we love – our favorite pets, computers, cars, TV shows, gadgets, clothes, and the list goes on.
But keep in mind that these are merely material belongings, and cannot substitute for human companionship. So put aside your valuables for at least one day in a week, and step out into the world to give yourself an opportunity to find love.
With all that said, the main thing is to keep an open mind and be receptive to opportunities. Go out and attend social events. Volunteer your service for charities and make no qualms about trying out dating services or professional matchmaking services.
Now that you’re armed with all this knowledge, it’s time to put yourself out there and start to explore.
How to be surrounded by pretty women
Walk into a party, a club or a social setting, and you may have seen men who are able to turn on the charm and chat up the women. And they usually snag a few phone numbers when the night is done.
How do they do it?
From what I have discovered, these men with high social abilities have habits unlike other guys.
For a start, they tend to exhibit more signs of playfulness when interacting with the fairer sex.
They are also more willing to be step out of their usual comfort zones and start up conversations, which begins with the simple but effective mentality of "If other guys don't socialize with women but I do, I win".
And one last thing - Every man who has built up a wide soial circle of cute and date-able girls has 'rituals'.
What this means is that these sociable men take the trouble to get to know women and people regularly.
Here are two tips to help you build those social 'rituals' for yourself.
Firstly, while you may automatically tune into your "sociable mode" when you're at a party, you can learn to be sociable by interacting with as many people as possible, old or young, men or women in different social settings.
This will certainly help you to open up when it comes to making small talk with women.
Also, make it a habit to put yourself in situations and places where there are women, as you carry out your daily tasks.
For instance, why eat with friends and colleagues you already know?
Take the opportunity to go to a food court during lunch hour and share a seat with some lady strangers.
Or go to a restaurant where there are cute waitresses or patrons. You're going to eat anyway, so why not utilise that time to meet new people?
Or how about shopping? Since you will be getting yourself outfits on a regular basis, it is a good idea to visit several shops and interact with those attractive female assistants while you are in there.
You will be one step closer to building up your sociability factor as you practice your conversational skills, and could well lead to you keeping in contact with them.
By enlarging your social circle intentionally, you also up your chances of meeting someone who is date-able.
How do they do it?
From what I have discovered, these men with high social abilities have habits unlike other guys.
For a start, they tend to exhibit more signs of playfulness when interacting with the fairer sex.
They are also more willing to be step out of their usual comfort zones and start up conversations, which begins with the simple but effective mentality of "If other guys don't socialize with women but I do, I win".
And one last thing - Every man who has built up a wide soial circle of cute and date-able girls has 'rituals'.
What this means is that these sociable men take the trouble to get to know women and people regularly.
Here are two tips to help you build those social 'rituals' for yourself.
Firstly, while you may automatically tune into your "sociable mode" when you're at a party, you can learn to be sociable by interacting with as many people as possible, old or young, men or women in different social settings.
This will certainly help you to open up when it comes to making small talk with women.
Also, make it a habit to put yourself in situations and places where there are women, as you carry out your daily tasks.
For instance, why eat with friends and colleagues you already know?
Take the opportunity to go to a food court during lunch hour and share a seat with some lady strangers.
Or go to a restaurant where there are cute waitresses or patrons. You're going to eat anyway, so why not utilise that time to meet new people?
Or how about shopping? Since you will be getting yourself outfits on a regular basis, it is a good idea to visit several shops and interact with those attractive female assistants while you are in there.
You will be one step closer to building up your sociability factor as you practice your conversational skills, and could well lead to you keeping in contact with them.
By enlarging your social circle intentionally, you also up your chances of meeting someone who is date-able.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
一时得失意义不大
如果以一时得失论英雄，中彩票的幸运儿都会被称为“投资高手”了。牛市、单边上涨的市场里很多志得意满的“高手”并不比中彩者聪明多少，但他们信心和股票一样快速膨胀，他们把幸运当才能了。
我怎么敢这么说？
因为到目前为止，我国福布斯排行榜上前100里，都找不到一个纯粹靠炒股上榜的人。而前500名中，几乎没几个，不信？您举几个例子？上榜者都有实业支撑。证明持久稳定累积财富的效率，实业大于股市。您说股市里的隐形富豪你不知道，巴菲特索罗斯不需要隐形，隐形多半是因为违法，违法投资您打算学习吗？学得了吗？而且所谓的这些股市富豪，10亿资产里面大约没几千万是自己的。好比德隆的800亿流沙帝国，来的快，去的更快。
如果“牛市顺风高手们”真能持续他们“智慧”，他们本应成为最富有的人。
譬如今年很多人追庄股和投机股，半年资金翻番，他们认为他们很会炒股。我们算算：
如果可持续的话，1年就是4倍，10年后资金翻了1048576倍，他现在有50万资金，则10年后就是5242亿。打个折扣吧，1年2倍，10年后是1024倍，也有5.12亿。
哪怕我在打个折扣，1年50%，10年后是57倍，就是2883万。
我想现在翻番的高手们连最后的2883万都很难做到！！
没有意义的，如果加上2008年这种熊市，到头来你如果能获得年均30%的收益，就是高手了！也就是13.8倍，也就是690万。
股市跟实业比，最大的问题就是掌控性差，波动性强，涨涨跌跌，赢了得容易输回去。
所以，我国股市过去18年的平均收益率不过18%，而未来因为盘子基础远比18年前大，能达到15%的平均收益率就不错了。
高估股市的长期收益率，高估自己的持续盈利能力，是股市两大通病。
股市只是理财之地，心态放平一些，有助于避免成为股市牺牲品。
股市好比美酒，适量饮用，有益健康，过度酗酒，将会碰到交通事故，严重性我就不知道了，那也要依靠运气，酒鬼在公路上生存，都得靠运气！
我认为如果要安稳理财，股市可以提供20%-30%的年收益率，过度要求会出问题。
如果要求高得多的收益率，我建议关注原始股市场，博主近日少写博文，一个原因就是在潜心研究原始股市场，比较忙。原始股市场是个小众市场，操作风险较大，必须多花时间。
最后，再次提醒大家不要期望从900点吃到6000点，然后从6000点空到1600点，然后又从1600点吃到8000点，哪是不可能的，如果可能的话，福布斯富豪榜的实业富豪都要下台，让位给那么多“牛市自我感觉良好的股神”了。
股市的暴利是不可持续的，因为1亿人和上万机构都在同台竞争，过度竞争的地方，您想要长期的超额利润，是缘木求鱼。如果您家旁边有1万家早餐店，我敢说他们谁都别想发财。
我怎么敢这么说？
因为到目前为止，我国福布斯排行榜上前100里，都找不到一个纯粹靠炒股上榜的人。而前500名中，几乎没几个，不信？您举几个例子？上榜者都有实业支撑。证明持久稳定累积财富的效率，实业大于股市。您说股市里的隐形富豪你不知道，巴菲特索罗斯不需要隐形，隐形多半是因为违法，违法投资您打算学习吗？学得了吗？而且所谓的这些股市富豪，10亿资产里面大约没几千万是自己的。好比德隆的800亿流沙帝国，来的快，去的更快。
如果“牛市顺风高手们”真能持续他们“智慧”，他们本应成为最富有的人。
譬如今年很多人追庄股和投机股，半年资金翻番，他们认为他们很会炒股。我们算算：
如果可持续的话，1年就是4倍，10年后资金翻了1048576倍，他现在有50万资金，则10年后就是5242亿。打个折扣吧，1年2倍，10年后是1024倍，也有5.12亿。
哪怕我在打个折扣，1年50%，10年后是57倍，就是2883万。
我想现在翻番的高手们连最后的2883万都很难做到！！
没有意义的，如果加上2008年这种熊市，到头来你如果能获得年均30%的收益，就是高手了！也就是13.8倍，也就是690万。
股市跟实业比，最大的问题就是掌控性差，波动性强，涨涨跌跌，赢了得容易输回去。
所以，我国股市过去18年的平均收益率不过18%，而未来因为盘子基础远比18年前大，能达到15%的平均收益率就不错了。
高估股市的长期收益率，高估自己的持续盈利能力，是股市两大通病。
股市只是理财之地，心态放平一些，有助于避免成为股市牺牲品。
股市好比美酒，适量饮用，有益健康，过度酗酒，将会碰到交通事故，严重性我就不知道了，那也要依靠运气，酒鬼在公路上生存，都得靠运气！
我认为如果要安稳理财，股市可以提供20%-30%的年收益率，过度要求会出问题。
如果要求高得多的收益率，我建议关注原始股市场，博主近日少写博文，一个原因就是在潜心研究原始股市场，比较忙。原始股市场是个小众市场，操作风险较大，必须多花时间。
最后，再次提醒大家不要期望从900点吃到6000点，然后从6000点空到1600点，然后又从1600点吃到8000点，哪是不可能的，如果可能的话，福布斯富豪榜的实业富豪都要下台，让位给那么多“牛市自我感觉良好的股神”了。
股市的暴利是不可持续的，因为1亿人和上万机构都在同台竞争，过度竞争的地方，您想要长期的超额利润，是缘木求鱼。如果您家旁边有1万家早餐店，我敢说他们谁都别想发财。
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Call 與 Put
近一段日子，我已重複多次向那些有時間炒股又喜歡刺激的人推介同時買入 Call與 Put期權或窩輪的方法來賺錢，這的確是不錯的方法，但是記住，不是在股市剛剛出現巨大波動時去買，而是應該選擇波幅較小的時候買，因為波幅小時溢價會比較低。
在香港，我可能是最先向讀者推介這種方法賺錢的人，那是十多年前的事了，那時候是香港剛剛允許窩輪商發行窩輪的時候。在這之前，只有上市公司才可以發行窩輪，發行自己的股票窩輪。
90年代中期香港開始允許窩輪發行商當莊家發行窩輪時，我就做了一個小小的研究，發現香港股市波幅驚人，以當時窩輪商開出的 Call與 Put的價格來計算，同時持有 Call與 Put每月能賺到錢的機會遠遠大過虧錢的機會，當時我把研究結果發表在《信報月刊》。
港人炒輪比例最高
事過十多年，今日窩輪的售價已經比當年剛剛推出時高許多，也許是當時剛剛推出時窩輪商以薄利來促銷，希望香港人可以接受，喜歡這種股市衍生工具。今日，香港已成了全球玩窩輪比例最高的城市，吸引了大量的窩輪商來香港，電視台、電台也出現了大量現場財經節目，現場財經節目的主要贊助商就是窩輪商。
今日投資者之所以能享受到如此多財經名嘴在電視、電台現場為他們解答投資問題，窩輪商居功不少。當然，今日窩輪生意好，溢價也高了，要同時一手買 Put一手買 Call就得選擇時機、選擇溢價低的時候，市場波幅小時溢價就會下降，因為所謂的引伸波幅會下降。
在香港，我可能是最先向讀者推介這種方法賺錢的人，那是十多年前的事了，那時候是香港剛剛允許窩輪商發行窩輪的時候。在這之前，只有上市公司才可以發行窩輪，發行自己的股票窩輪。
90年代中期香港開始允許窩輪發行商當莊家發行窩輪時，我就做了一個小小的研究，發現香港股市波幅驚人，以當時窩輪商開出的 Call與 Put的價格來計算，同時持有 Call與 Put每月能賺到錢的機會遠遠大過虧錢的機會，當時我把研究結果發表在《信報月刊》。
港人炒輪比例最高
事過十多年，今日窩輪的售價已經比當年剛剛推出時高許多，也許是當時剛剛推出時窩輪商以薄利來促銷，希望香港人可以接受，喜歡這種股市衍生工具。今日，香港已成了全球玩窩輪比例最高的城市，吸引了大量的窩輪商來香港，電視台、電台也出現了大量現場財經節目，現場財經節目的主要贊助商就是窩輪商。
今日投資者之所以能享受到如此多財經名嘴在電視、電台現場為他們解答投資問題，窩輪商居功不少。當然，今日窩輪生意好，溢價也高了，要同時一手買 Put一手買 Call就得選擇時機、選擇溢價低的時候，市場波幅小時溢價就會下降，因為所謂的引伸波幅會下降。
Monday, August 10, 2009
蜂蜜吃得不当 止咳变助咳
近日有烟雾，许多人因此咳嗽。
蜂蜜清热解毒，常被视为止咳化痰的良药。
不过当孩子对蜂蜜过敏时，吃蜂蜜却会使病情加剧。
不久前，一母亲就带着9岁的儿子找上自然疗法医师廖伟棠，询问为何儿子感冒咳嗽了大半年，吃药都咳不好。廖伟棠医师为男童做了食物敏感测试。3周后报告出炉，男童原来是对蜂蜜敏感！
做妈妈的这才恍然大悟，原来是自己的好意让儿子半年咳不停。
廖医师受访时指出，母亲认为蜂蜜富含营养，每天早上给孩子一匙蜂蜜冲泡茶饮，以为这么既利于孩子吸收，也能保证人体充足的营养和能量，结果弄巧成拙。
廖医师表示，蜂蜜确实具有很好的润肺止咳功效，但当孩子对蜂蜜产生过敏反应时，孩子一边吃咳嗽药，一边吞咽的蜂蜜就会抵消药物作用。
吃蜂蜜容易发怒？
自然疗法讲究身心灵医病，让病患从平时的饮食调剂。
廖医师说，烦躁、郁闷，或是容易发脾气，可能都与吃的东西有关，而这些东西可能是病患最想吃但又会导致敏感。
他说：“有科学依据表明，人的大脑也是和肠胃有沟通的，如果肠胃不舒服，大脑接收到负面的讯息，心情也会烦躁。”
廖医师说，不仅是孩子，有些成人也喜欢吃蜂蜜，早上喝茶或牛奶中，放一两匙不在少数。
“不过他们或许没有察觉到，自己的肠胃对蜂蜜敏感，吃了后导致肠胃发炎，这个讯息传递到大脑，他们发现自己很容易为一点小事就生气。”
空腹吃香蕉不利
养生保健中医诊所的林丽明医师指出，吃什么东西、吃多少分量的确很有讲究，吃得不当，“药”效全失。
打个比方，香蕉所含的色氨酸是制造幸福荷尔蒙（血清素）的必要物质，能缓解起伏波动的心情。
但许多人习惯把香蕉当早餐吃，一根香蕉空腹下肚，就不利健康。
林医师说，香蕉含有大量的镁元素，若空腹大量吃香蕉，会使血液中的镁量骤然升高，造成血液内镁、钙比例失调，对心血管产生抑制作用。
她说，餐后吃香蕉，一次吃半根或一根，一天不要吃超过两根香蕉。
香蕉味甘，性凉，能养阴润燥，生津止渴。
香蕉肉能润燥滑肠，用于痔疮患者大便干结，便后出血；但脾胃虚寒、腹泻者、畏寒体弱者就不能多吃，急慢性肾炎及肾功能不全者应忌食香蕉。
另外，香蕉糖分高，一条香蕉相等于半碗白饭，患糖尿病者必须注意吸取的分量。
蜂蜜清热解毒，常被视为止咳化痰的良药。
不过当孩子对蜂蜜过敏时，吃蜂蜜却会使病情加剧。
不久前，一母亲就带着9岁的儿子找上自然疗法医师廖伟棠，询问为何儿子感冒咳嗽了大半年，吃药都咳不好。廖伟棠医师为男童做了食物敏感测试。3周后报告出炉，男童原来是对蜂蜜敏感！
做妈妈的这才恍然大悟，原来是自己的好意让儿子半年咳不停。
廖医师受访时指出，母亲认为蜂蜜富含营养，每天早上给孩子一匙蜂蜜冲泡茶饮，以为这么既利于孩子吸收，也能保证人体充足的营养和能量，结果弄巧成拙。
廖医师表示，蜂蜜确实具有很好的润肺止咳功效，但当孩子对蜂蜜产生过敏反应时，孩子一边吃咳嗽药，一边吞咽的蜂蜜就会抵消药物作用。
吃蜂蜜容易发怒？
自然疗法讲究身心灵医病，让病患从平时的饮食调剂。
廖医师说，烦躁、郁闷，或是容易发脾气，可能都与吃的东西有关，而这些东西可能是病患最想吃但又会导致敏感。
他说：“有科学依据表明，人的大脑也是和肠胃有沟通的，如果肠胃不舒服，大脑接收到负面的讯息，心情也会烦躁。”
廖医师说，不仅是孩子，有些成人也喜欢吃蜂蜜，早上喝茶或牛奶中，放一两匙不在少数。
“不过他们或许没有察觉到，自己的肠胃对蜂蜜敏感，吃了后导致肠胃发炎，这个讯息传递到大脑，他们发现自己很容易为一点小事就生气。”
空腹吃香蕉不利
养生保健中医诊所的林丽明医师指出，吃什么东西、吃多少分量的确很有讲究，吃得不当，“药”效全失。
打个比方，香蕉所含的色氨酸是制造幸福荷尔蒙（血清素）的必要物质，能缓解起伏波动的心情。
但许多人习惯把香蕉当早餐吃，一根香蕉空腹下肚，就不利健康。
林医师说，香蕉含有大量的镁元素，若空腹大量吃香蕉，会使血液中的镁量骤然升高，造成血液内镁、钙比例失调，对心血管产生抑制作用。
她说，餐后吃香蕉，一次吃半根或一根，一天不要吃超过两根香蕉。
香蕉味甘，性凉，能养阴润燥，生津止渴。
香蕉肉能润燥滑肠，用于痔疮患者大便干结，便后出血；但脾胃虚寒、腹泻者、畏寒体弱者就不能多吃，急慢性肾炎及肾功能不全者应忌食香蕉。
另外，香蕉糖分高，一条香蕉相等于半碗白饭，患糖尿病者必须注意吸取的分量。
Sunday, August 2, 2009
時間用在哪，成功就在哪
古時，有個屋主家裡的門閂壞了，就請木匠來裝新門閂；可是木匠卻把門閂裝到門外去了，氣得屋主大罵木匠是「瞎賊」！木匠一聽，也很不高興地回罵：「你自己才是瞎賊！」屋主聽了氣呼呼地說：「是你把門閂裝反了，又不是我！」此時，木匠冷冷地說：「哼，你眼力好？那為什麼你會找我這個木匠來裝門閂？」
哈，是屋主「眼力差、沒眼光」，才會找個笨木匠來裝門閂呀！
人的眼光好不好，常常是在門閂裝好、事過境遷之後才知道。所以，有人說：「早知道把那些股票賣掉就好，就不會賠那麼慘！」
的確，人無法預測未來，所以常會看走眼！
就像廣達電腦董事長林百里曾說，他在念台大時，社會上正瀰漫「留學風」，可是他是僑生，家境清寒，沒有出國留學的打算；所以，當他去參加舞會，女同學知道他不出國之後，都不和他跳舞。
後來，他創設了廣達電腦，經過十年的努力經營，以每股三百七十五元上市，成為當時的「股王」，他的身價也一度飆漲到四百多億！
而在三、四年前，林百里為了回饋母校，他捐出了三億元給台大，興建電機資訊學院大樓。而且，在「九二一大地震」時，他和太太的賑災捐款，也高達一億元。
在目睹林百里現在的飛黃騰達與熱心公益時，過去學生時代「不願和林百里跳舞」的女同學們，聽說現在都十分後悔，「早知道林百里會這麼有成就、有財富，我一定天天陪他跳舞，處心積慮討好他，想盡辦法嫁給他！」
林百里先生的成功，告訴我們一個觀念－－「要為信念而戰！」
即使無法出國留學，但一定為自己事業打拚！別人瞧不起我、不跟自己跳舞，沒關係，有一天，要讓那些女生羨慕死自己，要讓她們看著自己的成功而捶胸頓足、扼腕不已！
其實，「信念」正是一個人成功的最重要因素！
或許，我們可以閉上眼睛，想一想－－「這輩子，我最想要什麼？最想做什麼？」我們可以為自己訂下目標，為自己造夢，然後，我們一生的任務，就是要「為信念而戰」、「為目標賣命」！
或許，我們會對未來感到害怕、恐懼，但是，「行情，總是在絕望中誕生」呀！
只要用心去做，腳踏實地去做，那麼「把時間用在哪裡，成功就在哪裡！」
哈，是屋主「眼力差、沒眼光」，才會找個笨木匠來裝門閂呀！
人的眼光好不好，常常是在門閂裝好、事過境遷之後才知道。所以，有人說：「早知道把那些股票賣掉就好，就不會賠那麼慘！」
的確，人無法預測未來，所以常會看走眼！
就像廣達電腦董事長林百里曾說，他在念台大時，社會上正瀰漫「留學風」，可是他是僑生，家境清寒，沒有出國留學的打算；所以，當他去參加舞會，女同學知道他不出國之後，都不和他跳舞。
後來，他創設了廣達電腦，經過十年的努力經營，以每股三百七十五元上市，成為當時的「股王」，他的身價也一度飆漲到四百多億！
而在三、四年前，林百里為了回饋母校，他捐出了三億元給台大，興建電機資訊學院大樓。而且，在「九二一大地震」時，他和太太的賑災捐款，也高達一億元。
在目睹林百里現在的飛黃騰達與熱心公益時，過去學生時代「不願和林百里跳舞」的女同學們，聽說現在都十分後悔，「早知道林百里會這麼有成就、有財富，我一定天天陪他跳舞，處心積慮討好他，想盡辦法嫁給他！」
林百里先生的成功，告訴我們一個觀念－－「要為信念而戰！」
即使無法出國留學，但一定為自己事業打拚！別人瞧不起我、不跟自己跳舞，沒關係，有一天，要讓那些女生羨慕死自己，要讓她們看著自己的成功而捶胸頓足、扼腕不已！
其實，「信念」正是一個人成功的最重要因素！
或許，我們可以閉上眼睛，想一想－－「這輩子，我最想要什麼？最想做什麼？」我們可以為自己訂下目標，為自己造夢，然後，我們一生的任務，就是要「為信念而戰」、「為目標賣命」！
或許，我們會對未來感到害怕、恐懼，但是，「行情，總是在絕望中誕生」呀！
只要用心去做，腳踏實地去做，那麼「把時間用在哪裡，成功就在哪裡！」
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
投资大师罗杰斯给女儿的忠告
我的父母和祖父母把这个观念深烙在我的脑海中：永远不要问别人他赚多少钱，也不要与别人讨论你赚多少钱或你有多少钱。
永远不要问别人这个东西多少钱买的，也不要告诉别人你的东西是多少钱买的。
任何“必看”、“必试”、“必读”的东西能免则免，尤其是流行的东西。记住，根据定义，有一半的人口智商在中位数以下。
小心所有的政客。在学生时代，她最出众的是下课休息时间；从学校毕业以后 ，很少有卓越的事。
你在单身酒吧得不到什么东西——调酒师会比你学到更多的经验，赚到更多的小费。你会注意到，老板不会在下班后，每天跟死党出去喝酒，这正是为什么他是老板。
在你上杂货店购物之前，一定要先填饱肚子——你才不会买过头了。
在商务午餐谈公事时，不要喝酒。
永远买高品质的东西，它们经久耐用，更能保持价值。
1. 不要让别人影响你－－假如每个人都嘲笑你的想法，这就是可能成功的指标。
2. 专注你所爱－－在真正热爱的工作上努力，就会找到你的梦想。
3. 普通常识并不是那麽普通－－大众社会相信的常常是错的，不要盲目听信别人的话。
4. 将世界纳入你的眼界－－保持开放的心，做个世界公民。
5. 研读哲学，学会思考－－训练自己去检验每一个概念，每一个事实。
6. 学习历史－－因为以前发生过的事，以後也还会发生。
7. 这是中国的世纪，去学中文！－－参与一个伟大国家的再现，购买这个国家的未来。
8. 真正认识自己－－了解你的弱点和觉察你的错误，才能找到对的路。
9. 认出改变，拥抱改变－－改变的功能就像催化剂，保持觉知是重要的功课。
10. 面对未来－－看得见未来的人可以累积财富。
11. 反众道而行－－检视事实和机会，不随乌合之众心理起舞。
12. 幸运女神只眷顾持续努力的人－－用功读书，学得越多你才知道你懂得越少。
永远不要问别人这个东西多少钱买的，也不要告诉别人你的东西是多少钱买的。
任何“必看”、“必试”、“必读”的东西能免则免，尤其是流行的东西。记住，根据定义，有一半的人口智商在中位数以下。
小心所有的政客。在学生时代，她最出众的是下课休息时间；从学校毕业以后 ，很少有卓越的事。
你在单身酒吧得不到什么东西——调酒师会比你学到更多的经验，赚到更多的小费。你会注意到，老板不会在下班后，每天跟死党出去喝酒，这正是为什么他是老板。
在你上杂货店购物之前，一定要先填饱肚子——你才不会买过头了。
在商务午餐谈公事时，不要喝酒。
永远买高品质的东西，它们经久耐用，更能保持价值。
1. 不要让别人影响你－－假如每个人都嘲笑你的想法，这就是可能成功的指标。
2. 专注你所爱－－在真正热爱的工作上努力，就会找到你的梦想。
3. 普通常识并不是那麽普通－－大众社会相信的常常是错的，不要盲目听信别人的话。
4. 将世界纳入你的眼界－－保持开放的心，做个世界公民。
5. 研读哲学，学会思考－－训练自己去检验每一个概念，每一个事实。
6. 学习历史－－因为以前发生过的事，以後也还会发生。
7. 这是中国的世纪，去学中文！－－参与一个伟大国家的再现，购买这个国家的未来。
8. 真正认识自己－－了解你的弱点和觉察你的错误，才能找到对的路。
9. 认出改变，拥抱改变－－改变的功能就像催化剂，保持觉知是重要的功课。
10. 面对未来－－看得见未来的人可以累积财富。
11. 反众道而行－－检视事实和机会，不随乌合之众心理起舞。
12. 幸运女神只眷顾持续努力的人－－用功读书，学得越多你才知道你懂得越少。
The Psychology Of Winning By Dr Dennis Waitley
Web sites: http://www.selfgrowth.com/experts/craig_lock.html http://www.myspace.com/writercraig
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles.html
The Psychology of Winning
by Dr Dennis Waitley
This article is a brief summary of my notes from an excellent motivational, up-lifting and inspiring book 'THE PSYCHOLOGY OF WINNING' by Dr Dennis Waitley. I am sharing the contents of this work in the spirit of encouraging and hopefully even inspiring those people, who really want to "cultivate and grow Seeds of Greatness" in their own lives to read the book...and just GO FOR IT... and surprise yourself by "winning in the game of life"!.
"It's not what you "are" that holds you back; it's what you think you are not. Winners control their self image and change it as they desire. They elevate their self image and enlarge their universe. Winners are especially aware of the tremendous importance of their self image. What you imagine as being real, with frequency, becomes your version of reality. Phantasize about the person they would most like to become.
READ A BIOGRAPHY THIS MONTH.
LISTEN TO educational and inspiring cassette tapes. Read uplifting books, like Dr Waitley's.
Winners are people with a definite purpose in life, like a "homing torpedo". Losers wander aimlessly through life. or self destruct.
"No wind blows in favour of a ship without a destination."
"Where there is life, there is hope.
Where there are hopes there are dreams.
Where there are vivid dreams repeated, they become (there are goals). And goals become the action plans toward success.
We become what we think about most of the time.
Millions of people lead unhappy aimless lives - existing from day to day, year to year, confused, frustrated, in a prison of our own making. About 95 of humanity are ships without rudders, hopelessly adrift and subject to every shift of wind and tide. 5 of people accomplish more in 5 years than the rest accomplish in a lifetime.
Every sea captain, knows his next port of call.
Winners have lifetime goals. What would I want people to say about me after I'm gone? Losers spend their time in low prioritytension relieving, rather than high priority goal-achieving activities.
Most people spend more time planning a party, studying the newspaper or making a Christmas list, than they do in planning their lives. Winners set daily goals the afternoon or evening before. List on paper in priority sequence at least 6 major things to do tomorrow. Establish a clearly defined goal and write it down. dwell on it, as IF YOU'VE ALREADY ACHIEVED IT. Move in the direction of your priority goal, as if it already were a part of your life. We become what we think about most - it's specific. The man without a purpose is like a ship without a rudder.
"One ship sails East, another West, by the self- same winds that blow.
Tis the set of the sail and not the gale, that determines the way they go.
Like the winds of the sea are the ways of time, as we voyage along through life.
Tis the set of the soul that determines the goal;
and not the calm or the strife."
Get behind the helm. Plan the work and work the plan, one day at a time.
"Everything in life
Is what you make it...
it's not what it is that counts
it's how you take it."
Winners practice positive self-discipline. Self discipline alone can make or break a habit. Losing is habit forming; whereas winners simulate winning.
Winners pick themselves up after a loss, dust themselves off and do it all over...better!
Self discipline is the winning edge that achieves goals; it is mental practice
"If I can help you win, then I win. If nature wins, everybody wins.
Become a TOTAL person in the process of personal growth through our failures.
The greatest quality is earning the respect and love of other people.
Winners live each precious golden day, as if it were their last - building for the future, learning from the past.
Winners develop a cherished respect for the value of time.
"There isn't more to life than this - a baby's smile, a loved one's kiss a book, a song, a flower, a friend and just a little time - to spend."
Winners know they can't enjoy the view, unless they climb the mountain.
Learn from the past, plan for the future and live as fully as possible in the present
SUCCESS FORMULA:
Conceive + believe = achieve
visualise + internalise = realise
imagination + simulation = realisation
Winners project a warm glow and have a "gut feeling" that they are on the right path.
Just "do the best with what you've got"!
Listeners learn a great deal, while talkers learn nothing.
Winners ask questions, draw the other person out.
Know paying value to others is the greatest communication skill of all.
Winners are service oriented - not self oriented. We communicate by means of over 700000 non-verbal signals!
Have a good attitude: "I'll make him glad he talked with me."
Winners know everybody hears and sees differently.
They practice the KISS principle.
Will Rogers: "I never met a man I didn't like". Rogers found something to admire in everyone.
"Marriage is not looking at each other, but looking in the same direction together."
Feel your own worth and pass it on to others. Talk yourself and others up. Put your goals down on paper and share them with those who can help you achieve them.
Say, "the only limits to my accomplishments in life are self imposed".
Winners phantasize their own scripts - a magificient epic motion picture for which chosen as writer, producer, director and star.
Life is a "do-it-yourself project". Focus on desire, rather than fear. The stresses desire provide energy, propulsion, creativity and magnetic pull.
YOUR IMAGINATION RULES THE WORLD.
Set a game plan for your life. Losing is a developed habit, and so is winning.
Earn the respect of other human beings. Do your business to the benefit of others, not at their expense.
"If you want to be loved, be lovable."
Be happy just being the very best person you can be with "loads of" FUN along the journey of life.
Eagle Productions ("Information and Inspiration Distributers, Incorrigible Encouragers and People-builders")
"I'm gonna fly from my cocoon and put my footsteps on the moon All I've ever hoped to be is free to be that person...me!
"Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir your blood to action - make big plans, aim high in work and hope."
"Every man has his own destiny; the only imperative is to follow it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller
"Our Greatest Good is perhaps not to achieve wealth and share our material possessions, our money and 'riches' with others, but through encouragement and faith in other people, to lay the firm foundation of revealing the rich treasure that lies within themselves."
- craig
"And whatever else history may say about me when I'm gone, I hope it will record that I appealed to your best hopes, not your worst fears, to your confidence rather than your doubts. My dream is that you will travel the road ahead with liberty's lamp guiding your steps and opportunity's arm steadying your way. My fondest hope for each one of you - and especially for young people - is that you will love your country, not for her power or wealth, but for her selflessness and her idealism. May each of you have the heart to conceive, the understanding to direct, and the hand to execute works that will make the world a little better for your having been here. May all of you as Americans never forget your heroic origins, never fail to seek divine guidance, and never lose your natural, God-given optimism. And finally, my fellow Americans, may every dawn be a great new beginning for America and every evening bring us closer to that shining city upon a hill."
- Former US President Ronald Reagan
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles.html
The Psychology of Winning
by Dr Dennis Waitley
This article is a brief summary of my notes from an excellent motivational, up-lifting and inspiring book 'THE PSYCHOLOGY OF WINNING' by Dr Dennis Waitley. I am sharing the contents of this work in the spirit of encouraging and hopefully even inspiring those people, who really want to "cultivate and grow Seeds of Greatness" in their own lives to read the book...and just GO FOR IT... and surprise yourself by "winning in the game of life"!.
"It's not what you "are" that holds you back; it's what you think you are not. Winners control their self image and change it as they desire. They elevate their self image and enlarge their universe. Winners are especially aware of the tremendous importance of their self image. What you imagine as being real, with frequency, becomes your version of reality. Phantasize about the person they would most like to become.
READ A BIOGRAPHY THIS MONTH.
LISTEN TO educational and inspiring cassette tapes. Read uplifting books, like Dr Waitley's.
Winners are people with a definite purpose in life, like a "homing torpedo". Losers wander aimlessly through life. or self destruct.
"No wind blows in favour of a ship without a destination."
"Where there is life, there is hope.
Where there are hopes there are dreams.
Where there are vivid dreams repeated, they become (there are goals). And goals become the action plans toward success.
We become what we think about most of the time.
Millions of people lead unhappy aimless lives - existing from day to day, year to year, confused, frustrated, in a prison of our own making. About 95 of humanity are ships without rudders, hopelessly adrift and subject to every shift of wind and tide. 5 of people accomplish more in 5 years than the rest accomplish in a lifetime.
Every sea captain, knows his next port of call.
Winners have lifetime goals. What would I want people to say about me after I'm gone? Losers spend their time in low prioritytension relieving, rather than high priority goal-achieving activities.
Most people spend more time planning a party, studying the newspaper or making a Christmas list, than they do in planning their lives. Winners set daily goals the afternoon or evening before. List on paper in priority sequence at least 6 major things to do tomorrow. Establish a clearly defined goal and write it down. dwell on it, as IF YOU'VE ALREADY ACHIEVED IT. Move in the direction of your priority goal, as if it already were a part of your life. We become what we think about most - it's specific. The man without a purpose is like a ship without a rudder.
"One ship sails East, another West, by the self- same winds that blow.
Tis the set of the sail and not the gale, that determines the way they go.
Like the winds of the sea are the ways of time, as we voyage along through life.
Tis the set of the soul that determines the goal;
and not the calm or the strife."
Get behind the helm. Plan the work and work the plan, one day at a time.
"Everything in life
Is what you make it...
it's not what it is that counts
it's how you take it."
Winners practice positive self-discipline. Self discipline alone can make or break a habit. Losing is habit forming; whereas winners simulate winning.
Winners pick themselves up after a loss, dust themselves off and do it all over...better!
Self discipline is the winning edge that achieves goals; it is mental practice
"If I can help you win, then I win. If nature wins, everybody wins.
Become a TOTAL person in the process of personal growth through our failures.
The greatest quality is earning the respect and love of other people.
Winners live each precious golden day, as if it were their last - building for the future, learning from the past.
Winners develop a cherished respect for the value of time.
"There isn't more to life than this - a baby's smile, a loved one's kiss a book, a song, a flower, a friend and just a little time - to spend."
Winners know they can't enjoy the view, unless they climb the mountain.
Learn from the past, plan for the future and live as fully as possible in the present
SUCCESS FORMULA:
Conceive + believe = achieve
visualise + internalise = realise
imagination + simulation = realisation
Winners project a warm glow and have a "gut feeling" that they are on the right path.
Just "do the best with what you've got"!
Listeners learn a great deal, while talkers learn nothing.
Winners ask questions, draw the other person out.
Know paying value to others is the greatest communication skill of all.
Winners are service oriented - not self oriented. We communicate by means of over 700000 non-verbal signals!
Have a good attitude: "I'll make him glad he talked with me."
Winners know everybody hears and sees differently.
They practice the KISS principle.
Will Rogers: "I never met a man I didn't like". Rogers found something to admire in everyone.
"Marriage is not looking at each other, but looking in the same direction together."
Feel your own worth and pass it on to others. Talk yourself and others up. Put your goals down on paper and share them with those who can help you achieve them.
Say, "the only limits to my accomplishments in life are self imposed".
Winners phantasize their own scripts - a magificient epic motion picture for which chosen as writer, producer, director and star.
Life is a "do-it-yourself project". Focus on desire, rather than fear. The stresses desire provide energy, propulsion, creativity and magnetic pull.
YOUR IMAGINATION RULES THE WORLD.
Set a game plan for your life. Losing is a developed habit, and so is winning.
Earn the respect of other human beings. Do your business to the benefit of others, not at their expense.
"If you want to be loved, be lovable."
Be happy just being the very best person you can be with "loads of" FUN along the journey of life.
Eagle Productions ("Information and Inspiration Distributers, Incorrigible Encouragers and People-builders")
"I'm gonna fly from my cocoon and put my footsteps on the moon All I've ever hoped to be is free to be that person...me!
"Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir your blood to action - make big plans, aim high in work and hope."
"Every man has his own destiny; the only imperative is to follow it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller
"Our Greatest Good is perhaps not to achieve wealth and share our material possessions, our money and 'riches' with others, but through encouragement and faith in other people, to lay the firm foundation of revealing the rich treasure that lies within themselves."
- craig
"And whatever else history may say about me when I'm gone, I hope it will record that I appealed to your best hopes, not your worst fears, to your confidence rather than your doubts. My dream is that you will travel the road ahead with liberty's lamp guiding your steps and opportunity's arm steadying your way. My fondest hope for each one of you - and especially for young people - is that you will love your country, not for her power or wealth, but for her selflessness and her idealism. May each of you have the heart to conceive, the understanding to direct, and the hand to execute works that will make the world a little better for your having been here. May all of you as Americans never forget your heroic origins, never fail to seek divine guidance, and never lose your natural, God-given optimism. And finally, my fellow Americans, may every dawn be a great new beginning for America and every evening bring us closer to that shining city upon a hill."
- Former US President Ronald Reagan
我的名字叫習慣（ 摘錄自丹尼斯魏特利博士Winning For Life）
你可人能認識我，我一直都是你的夥伴！
我可以是你最好的幫手，也是你最大的負擔。
我可以督促妳，也可以讓你一拜塗地。
我隨時聽從使喚！
妳還不如把大部分的事情交給我處理，因為我做事的速度很快。
只要你提出要求， 我還可以用同樣的方法做事。
我是最容易管理的，只要對我嚴厲一些就好。
告訴我你要的是什麼， 在練習幾次之後，我就可以毫不思索地達成目標。
我是所有偉大者的僕人，也是所有失敗者的主人。
我成就所有的偉人，也造就了所有的失敗者。
我精密如電腦，且可以用我破壞，對我而言，兩者沒有什麼不同！
對我放鬆，我就毀了你 ﹔ 對我嚴格，我就會讓你出人頭地。
我是誰？
～
～
～
～
我的名字叫～～～～～～～習慣！
我可以是你最好的幫手，也是你最大的負擔。
我可以督促妳，也可以讓你一拜塗地。
我隨時聽從使喚！
妳還不如把大部分的事情交給我處理，因為我做事的速度很快。
只要你提出要求， 我還可以用同樣的方法做事。
我是最容易管理的，只要對我嚴厲一些就好。
告訴我你要的是什麼， 在練習幾次之後，我就可以毫不思索地達成目標。
我是所有偉大者的僕人，也是所有失敗者的主人。
我成就所有的偉人，也造就了所有的失敗者。
我精密如電腦，且可以用我破壞，對我而言，兩者沒有什麼不同！
對我放鬆，我就毀了你 ﹔ 對我嚴格，我就會讓你出人頭地。
我是誰？
～
～
～
～
我的名字叫～～～～～～～習慣！
大前研一
大前研一（Kenichi Ohmae），麻省理工学院博士。曾任麦肯锡日本分公司董事长，兼任许多跨国公司的管理顾问。1994年7月离开麦肯锡，现任创业者商学院校长和一新塾校长。1996年起任美国加州大学洛杉矶分校教授，斯坦福大学客座教授。被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，“日本战略之父”。
大前研一-个人简介
大前研一，早稻田大学理工系毕业后，获得东京工业大学硕士学位，麻省理工学院博士学位。曾任麦肯锡咨询公司日本分社社长、公司董事、国际著名企业顾问。1994年7月离开麦肯锡，现任创业者商学院校长和一新塾校长，1996年起任加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校研究生院教授，斯坦福大学商学院客座教授。被英国《经济学家》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，“日本战略之父”。 他是麦肯锡公司日本公司的董事长，也是最高管理层的顾问和公司的创始者。日本许多非常著名的公司，通常会的制定竞争战略时寻求他的帮助，而他的建议也同样深受到了美国和欧洲跨国公司的欢迎。 大前研一先在在许多行业领域为企业提供了服务。电子设备，办公室设备，摄影设备，机械设备，食品，橡胶，以及化工产品。他能够提出创新性的战略，并提出相应的组织观念去实现这些战略。
“虽然日本一百多年来西化得厉害，可我总认为深入骨髓的东方文化还没有被完全同化。大前研一的张扬和口无遮拦，不仅让中国人觉得奇怪和惊讶，其实就在日本甚或整个东方也都是绝无仅有！”《金融时报》这样描述大前研一：“坦率无忌型名人非常稀缺的国度里的一个名人。当绝大部分日本人还在小心翼翼不敢冒犯别人时，大前研一却是生硬率直，有时还单刀直入般地粗鲁……他还是日本仅有的一位极为成功的管理学宗师。”
想要了解一个人行为、思维模式、甚至思想深度，最简单易行的途径是通过他经历和著述。大前研一是名日本人，他先是美国化(他的美国同事称他为凯恩)，然后是全球化。大前极富天分。他的长笛演奏水平可以参加音乐会，他还是名核物理学家，著作等身的伟大作家，政治家，麦肯锡咨询公司（Mckinsey & Company）长期的业务明星。当他在1995年离开麦肯锡咨询公司前往竞选东京市长时，麦肯锡咨询公司的离别公告将大前研一称为“一名伟大的咨询员，一名使人中魔的演讲者，一名多产到无法思议的作家，一名音乐家和一名摩托车手”。当然，最后一项的成就就不那么明显。
素有“战略先生”之称的大前研一，对于企业经营管理及策略规画有精辟而独到见解，被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，是少数获得国际肯定的东方管理大师。大前曾经准确的预测了前苏联的解体、日本经济的泡沫化等等。
大前研一-人物观点
大前研一的全球化觀點被英國學界四位大師DavidHeld、A.McGrew、D.Goldblatt、J.Perraton歸類為《超全球化學派》的新自由學派之ㄧ，其TheBorderlessWorld、TheEndoftheNationState、TheInvisibleContinent、TheNextGlobalStage等四本書最為重要。
大前研一專長於跨國企業的市場策略、海外投資、組織系統及經營方針之規畫。常受邀於亞洲各國，從事國家重大投資開發計畫之評估。
大前研一挑戰傳統的逆向思考方式，及坦率直言的風格，不僅在日本、在全球各論壇中都獨樹一幟；此從其一系列的著述中可得知。
大前研一-主要著作
除了著名的《战略家的思想》、《没有国界的世界》外，大前研一著作中有名气的，最起码在西方还有《日本商业：障碍和机会》(Japan Business：Obstacles and Opportunities)，《三位一体的力量：环球竞争将要到来的形态》(Triad Power：The Coming Shape Of Global Competition)，《超越国界》(Beyond National Borders)，《民族国家的尽头》(The End Of the Nation State)，《看不见的新大陆》(The Invisible Continent——Four strategic imperatives of the new economy)等。
他在《看不见的大陆》这本书里提出了一个观点，现在出现了一个新大陆，这个新的大陆是大家看不见的，但是所有人都不能逃过它的影响，大家都能感觉到它的存在。《看不见的新大陆》概括了新经济的四大互相影响的特征(有形、无国界、数字科技和高效益成本比)，并提出了相应的应对战略。“看不见”是因为这个新大陆并非一块实质上存在的土地，而是存在于我们的集体意识。
但是，这块无形的新大陆对经济、政治及社会的影响却是实实在在可以感受得到的。尽管后来发生了互联网泡沫的破碎，但大前研一后来在文章和讲演中强调，“新经济”已经大大改变了全球竞争规则，重申了与世界接轨的重要性。无论个人还是机构，都需要用新的眼光来看迅速变化的世界，并从中找到成功机会。
大前研一的观点尖锐而富有争议，近几年他潜心研究亚洲经济，著书100多本，其中关于中国的三本着作都在海外经济学界引起了强烈反响，成为全球研究亚洲经济最有影响力的学者之一。
在《China Impact》一书中，大前研一开篇写道：“中国已经觉醒。”他相信包括东北、京津、山东、长三角、福建、珠三角在内的不同地区已形成六个不同的强大的经济体，它们支持着中国经济的发展，并将对世界产生重要的影响。未来10年，世界最重要的课题就是如何与一个强大的中国相处。他也不断强调，中国的崛起对于世界，尤其是亚洲，首先是一个重大的机遇，而不是什么威胁。
大前研一在《中国，岀租中》认为这种“租位子经济”，最能带动中国的经济快速成长，他把全中国比喻成一个超级大卖场，他欢迎所有的国际企业来租个摊位卖产品，全球没有任何其它国家能比得上中国的超级吸引力。
“受到经济浪潮强力的推移，2005年两岸和平统一！中华联邦的新板块，将结合中、台、港，甚至是新加坡，成为一股莫可抵挡的经济旋风。” 这是大前研一在《中华联邦》中的大胆预言。
记得有人说过，贩卖思想的人，不管是天真还是幼稚，是狂热还是执著，都具有特别的气质。在一个人声鼎沸的现代社会，只有分贝远远高于众人，你才能“引人注目”，你的观念才有机会深入人心，不管是真理还是谬论，是被人赞赏还是唾弃。如果你没有语不惊人死不休的执著与勇气，你与理解的同情与共鸣之约也就只好永远遥遥无期，思想家最痛苦的恐怕莫过于此。我想大前研一必是深谙其中的道理。
大前研一-个人简介
大前研一，早稻田大学理工系毕业后，获得东京工业大学硕士学位，麻省理工学院博士学位。曾任麦肯锡咨询公司日本分社社长、公司董事、国际著名企业顾问。1994年7月离开麦肯锡，现任创业者商学院校长和一新塾校长，1996年起任加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校研究生院教授，斯坦福大学商学院客座教授。被英国《经济学家》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，“日本战略之父”。 他是麦肯锡公司日本公司的董事长，也是最高管理层的顾问和公司的创始者。日本许多非常著名的公司，通常会的制定竞争战略时寻求他的帮助，而他的建议也同样深受到了美国和欧洲跨国公司的欢迎。 大前研一先在在许多行业领域为企业提供了服务。电子设备，办公室设备，摄影设备，机械设备，食品，橡胶，以及化工产品。他能够提出创新性的战略，并提出相应的组织观念去实现这些战略。
“虽然日本一百多年来西化得厉害，可我总认为深入骨髓的东方文化还没有被完全同化。大前研一的张扬和口无遮拦，不仅让中国人觉得奇怪和惊讶，其实就在日本甚或整个东方也都是绝无仅有！”《金融时报》这样描述大前研一：“坦率无忌型名人非常稀缺的国度里的一个名人。当绝大部分日本人还在小心翼翼不敢冒犯别人时，大前研一却是生硬率直，有时还单刀直入般地粗鲁……他还是日本仅有的一位极为成功的管理学宗师。”
想要了解一个人行为、思维模式、甚至思想深度，最简单易行的途径是通过他经历和著述。大前研一是名日本人，他先是美国化(他的美国同事称他为凯恩)，然后是全球化。大前极富天分。他的长笛演奏水平可以参加音乐会，他还是名核物理学家，著作等身的伟大作家，政治家，麦肯锡咨询公司（Mckinsey & Company）长期的业务明星。当他在1995年离开麦肯锡咨询公司前往竞选东京市长时，麦肯锡咨询公司的离别公告将大前研一称为“一名伟大的咨询员，一名使人中魔的演讲者，一名多产到无法思议的作家，一名音乐家和一名摩托车手”。当然，最后一项的成就就不那么明显。
素有“战略先生”之称的大前研一，对于企业经营管理及策略规画有精辟而独到见解，被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，是少数获得国际肯定的东方管理大师。大前曾经准确的预测了前苏联的解体、日本经济的泡沫化等等。
大前研一-人物观点
大前研一的全球化觀點被英國學界四位大師DavidHeld、A.McGrew、D.Goldblatt、J.Perraton歸類為《超全球化學派》的新自由學派之ㄧ，其TheBorderlessWorld、TheEndoftheNationState、TheInvisibleContinent、TheNextGlobalStage等四本書最為重要。
大前研一專長於跨國企業的市場策略、海外投資、組織系統及經營方針之規畫。常受邀於亞洲各國，從事國家重大投資開發計畫之評估。
大前研一挑戰傳統的逆向思考方式，及坦率直言的風格，不僅在日本、在全球各論壇中都獨樹一幟；此從其一系列的著述中可得知。
大前研一-主要著作
除了著名的《战略家的思想》、《没有国界的世界》外，大前研一著作中有名气的，最起码在西方还有《日本商业：障碍和机会》(Japan Business：Obstacles and Opportunities)，《三位一体的力量：环球竞争将要到来的形态》(Triad Power：The Coming Shape Of Global Competition)，《超越国界》(Beyond National Borders)，《民族国家的尽头》(The End Of the Nation State)，《看不见的新大陆》(The Invisible Continent——Four strategic imperatives of the new economy)等。
他在《看不见的大陆》这本书里提出了一个观点，现在出现了一个新大陆，这个新的大陆是大家看不见的，但是所有人都不能逃过它的影响，大家都能感觉到它的存在。《看不见的新大陆》概括了新经济的四大互相影响的特征(有形、无国界、数字科技和高效益成本比)，并提出了相应的应对战略。“看不见”是因为这个新大陆并非一块实质上存在的土地，而是存在于我们的集体意识。
但是，这块无形的新大陆对经济、政治及社会的影响却是实实在在可以感受得到的。尽管后来发生了互联网泡沫的破碎，但大前研一后来在文章和讲演中强调，“新经济”已经大大改变了全球竞争规则，重申了与世界接轨的重要性。无论个人还是机构，都需要用新的眼光来看迅速变化的世界，并从中找到成功机会。
大前研一的观点尖锐而富有争议，近几年他潜心研究亚洲经济，著书100多本，其中关于中国的三本着作都在海外经济学界引起了强烈反响，成为全球研究亚洲经济最有影响力的学者之一。
在《China Impact》一书中，大前研一开篇写道：“中国已经觉醒。”他相信包括东北、京津、山东、长三角、福建、珠三角在内的不同地区已形成六个不同的强大的经济体，它们支持着中国经济的发展，并将对世界产生重要的影响。未来10年，世界最重要的课题就是如何与一个强大的中国相处。他也不断强调，中国的崛起对于世界，尤其是亚洲，首先是一个重大的机遇，而不是什么威胁。
大前研一在《中国，岀租中》认为这种“租位子经济”，最能带动中国的经济快速成长，他把全中国比喻成一个超级大卖场，他欢迎所有的国际企业来租个摊位卖产品，全球没有任何其它国家能比得上中国的超级吸引力。
“受到经济浪潮强力的推移，2005年两岸和平统一！中华联邦的新板块，将结合中、台、港，甚至是新加坡，成为一股莫可抵挡的经济旋风。” 这是大前研一在《中华联邦》中的大胆预言。
记得有人说过，贩卖思想的人，不管是天真还是幼稚，是狂热还是执著，都具有特别的气质。在一个人声鼎沸的现代社会，只有分贝远远高于众人，你才能“引人注目”，你的观念才有机会深入人心，不管是真理还是谬论，是被人赞赏还是唾弃。如果你没有语不惊人死不休的执著与勇气，你与理解的同情与共鸣之约也就只好永远遥遥无期，思想家最痛苦的恐怕莫过于此。我想大前研一必是深谙其中的道理。
知識價值vs.資金力量
十九世紀，亞當史密發表《國富論》，其後一百多年，資本主義思想主導人類經濟運作，財富的創造來自擁有生產工具的資本家，資本擁有者攫取了企業經營最大的利潤。
二十世紀末，美國麻省理工學院管理學教授梭羅發表《新國富論》，倡言人類正經歷第三次工業革命，邁進以知識為基礎的新經濟時代，財富的創造來自科技創新。
杜拉克在他的鉅著《後資本主義社會》也呼應：「在新的經濟體系裡，知識並不是和人力、資本或土地等並列的生產資源，而是唯一有意義的一項資源。」
強盜富豪紛紛落馬， 龐大的實體資產不再可靠。
大師們的讜論，宣告了一個時代的終結，及另一個時代的濫觴。擁有資本者，不再能如以往般呼風喚雨；擁有知識者卻能暢行無阻。
現實經濟社會中，這種不重資本、卻重知識的現象，已然成形。
資本主義社會下，擁有資本、土地、生產工具纔能累計財富的法則，造就了一群被稱為「強盜富豪」的各種大王︰石油大王、鋼鐵大王、鐵路大王等，如今已成過眼雲煙。二十世紀最後一位強盜富豪——微軟的比爾蓋茲，在短短20年所累積的千億美元財富，靠的也不再是對生產工具及資源的壟斷，而是知識的優勢。
同樣的現象，也可從台灣資本市場看出端倪。民國七十九年，台股指數登上12682點頂峰，當時上市公司總市值排名，依次為國壽、中銀、中鋼、一銀、華銀、彰銀、北商銀、台泥和中華開發。除了台泥和中鋼外，都是擁有龐大資產的金融股，而中鋼和台泥的市值所反應的，也是背後的龐大土地資產。
而今，過去紅極一時的金融股、營建股、資產股不但光芒盡失、跌破面值的比比皆是，即使稱霸台灣股市30年，至今獲利良好的國壽，市值也被台積電、聯電等知識密集型科技股超越，差距愈拉愈大。
產業的興衰，反映的是經濟環境的變遷以及隨之而來的經濟運作法則的更新。過去資本主導的經濟體系，根源於實體經濟中，生產需要投入大量原物料、土地、廠房、勞動力，配合運送、行銷、通路等。每一段加值過程，都是由資金的大量投入所堆積。
新經濟體系卻有一套迥然不同的法則：成本有限、機會無窮。台灣康柏電腦總經理何薇玲闡明，在網路經濟體系中，企業可以從事「無本生意」，因為資訊將以零時距、零失真、零中間附加價流竄在無邊無際的網路中，但卻可以創造「無限可能」：用戶無限、創造性無限以及國界無限。
PC home電腦家庭出版集團發行人詹宏志也觀察到網際網路帶來的經濟革命，根源於網路經濟的特性是：
趨近於零的運算成本，趨近於即時的運算速度；
趨近於零的溝通成本，趨近於即時的反應速度；
趨近於零的運輸成本，趨近於即時的服務速度。
何薇玲也進而歸納出價值的源頭，在舊體系中，它來自土地、生財器具、資本與人工；而在新經濟體系中，它來自「眼球、速度、服務、關係和供應鍊。」
這種經濟中，成本不重要，重要的是知識。
過去，帶著創意找金主， 現在，捧著鈔票搶人才！
詹宏志認為，掌握網路經濟的特性，誰能運用知識，提出一個獨特的網路構想、一個利基的經營模式，並強調組織的速度、擴大服務並迅速成長，誰就能成為網路經濟的贏家，至於經營所需的資本，一則不高，二則資本擁有者也會爭相湧向這些真正有創意的經營模式。
現今的現象是，資金擁有者拚命想敲開知識擁有者的大門。數位聯合科技總經理程嘉君與PC home Online網路家庭總經理李宏麟，近日不斷面對一批批絡繹於途的創投業者與投資者，想爭相投入他們的事業。
有創意、能將創意落實為完整經營模式的人，根本不愁找不到資金。雅虎吸引來自日本軟體銀行的資金，成為今日網路股的天之驕子；資迅人科技吸引了英特爾的資金，是台灣以知識創業的樣板；新浪網吸引了戴爾電腦的資金，為開創華人入口網站的企圖再添一道助力。去年十二月，出身網景技術副總裁的McCue所開創的Tellme Network，首次招募創投基金，就吸引矽谷最知名的Benchmark與 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等創投公司一舉投入4700萬美元，提供他們進軍互動媒體服務所需的資金。他們的網頁上，就有一幅公司員工共舉裝滿香檳的塑膠杯，相互祝賀的圖片。
此情此景，讓資金擁有者開始捧著錢，四處追尋投資機會，反應出無限資源追逐有限機會的經濟現實。矽谷有成群的創投，四處搜獵有創意、有潛力的投資標的。
嘴上無毛、身無學位沒關係， 網上工夫、美西關係更值錢！
看準網路與智慧財產產業的高成長與獲利契機，國內最大的電腦集團宏碁，不僅集資百億以投資百家網路公司，並將組織結構重新調整，成立宏智、宏網兩個次集團。全球知名的安達信顧問公司（Andersen Consulting），甘冒被指責將造成利益衝突的大不諱，集資十億美元，成立創投，將在未來五年，投資網際網路公司。
更有甚著，資金擁有者如果不能為知識擁有者帶來金錢以外的附加價值，以資金就想坐收借貸孳息的機會也愈來愈小。以存放利差賺取利潤的傳統銀行業，生存空間已日益狹窄。證券承銷商、投信、投顧、投資銀行、創投等新興金融業，獲利的重心，都來自他們為顧客所提供的服務與附加價值。一般稍具理財概念的民眾，都相信把錢投入股市或基金，獲利通常都優於存放在安全雖然無虞，但每年也只能賺取10%以下利息的銀行。
然而，要在股市獲利，依然需要知識，以最當紅的雅虎為例，一股可以買6000股臺灣營建業上市公司的股票，股價超過400美元，本益比高達2500以上，但是它眼下的投資報酬率，卻僅僅0.004%，遠遠不如存入銀行；一位企業人士只能冷眼提醒：「投資人以他們的熱情與幻想，成就網路新貴。」
網路新貴能在短短時間裡，累積百億美元身價，自有他們過人之處。何薇玲一語道出網路新貴的特徵：「嘴上無毛、身無學位、網上工夫、美西關係」。網路新貴創業時固然多半身無分文，但他們普遍呈現創業的企圖、熱情、膽識，最重要的是：他們憑藉知識所構思的經營模式。獲得創投青睞的Tellme Network，經營模式是透過該公司的加值服務，用戶可以利用傳統電話以語音上網，讓用戶享有網上的「內容、通訊與商務，」創辦人McCue宣稱。
想變成智價致富的金領階級嗎？ 看看大前研一是怎麼走過來的
即使知識掛帥，網路新貴一樣得經歷創業的艱辛付出。資迅人在師大旁被笑稱為狗窩的破舊公寓起家。雅虎楊致遠在租來的拖車裡通宵建立網路搜尋引擎。創辦網上網（Abovenet）的段曉雷，創業初期連房租、律師費都付不出來，只好以股票權充，創造了兩個借他錢的意外富翁。網景（Netscape）創辦人克拉克（Jim Clark）形容網景開發領航員（Navigator）瀏覽器軟體時，工程師們連續數個月辛苦工作的情景：「一切發展正順利的進行，日以繼夜的工作，常常深夜到丹尼餐廳（美國連鎖平價餐廳、通常開在汽車旅館附近）吃早餐。」
隨著網景上市大放異采，這些日以繼夜的工程師都在一夕致富。克拉克本人，早已擁有私人飛機，並在全球各地廣置豪宅。智價工作者，是未來最搶手的人才。元智大學遠東管理講座教授許士軍分析，在知識世紀中，個人的重要性與地位顯然將大為提升。背後的原因在於，工業社會中，生產力來自大量的生產設備與大量資本，而非個人；而在知識社會中，生產力來自個人的知識與其應用。
讓自己成為具有價值的智價工作者，是新經濟時代工作者寄望成功致富，不被時代淘汰的必然選擇。麥肯錫顧問公司日本分公司社長大前研一在他的著作《上班族生死存亡戰》中指出，上班族可分為「單純勞動集中型」「知識勞動集中型」與「知識白領」三類。其中收入最高的自然為第三種，以知識附加價值的成果來決定薪資，許士軍甚至稱之為「金領階級」，他們必須和分布全球的夥伴工作，時常保持聯繫溝通，並具備多項工作能力。
要成為知識白領，當然要付出過人的努力。詹宏志認為，新經濟時代，工作者必須具備下列人格特質：對新生事物的開放與熱情、對改變的認識與接受、對異質文化的了解與包容、對速度的熟悉適應。大前研一則以自己為例，說明他在七○年代，從初進麥肯錫，被人譏為「公牛身上的乳房」（完全沒用的人），經過過人的努力而登上社長，每日拿到150萬日幣報酬的過程。
當時，大前研一每天晚上在公司研讀過去的資料，直到搭最後一班電車回家；用錄音的方式，想像自己面對客戶提出解決問題的方法，並反覆修正；在電車上，將第一眼看到的廣告，列為向自己發問的題目，反覆構思如何為客戶提出提高銷售量的方案，用什麼方法宣傳、銷售，如此日復一日，訓練自己「對客戶提出問題馬上能在腦子裡分析、找答案」的迅速反應能力。
就像詹宏志在《電腦上班族》雜誌創刊號的發刊詞上所說的，工作者必須經常自問：當下一個工作來臨時，你在哪裡？
你重視眼前的金錢利益，還是未來的知識？
十年前，一位以創意為業的企畫人曾經感慨，做這行沒前途，「點子不說出來，沒人會付你錢，點子一說出來，人家聽了就走，也不會付你錢」。時代變了，下一世代，知識有價，已經無庸置疑。
二十世紀末，美國麻省理工學院管理學教授梭羅發表《新國富論》，倡言人類正經歷第三次工業革命，邁進以知識為基礎的新經濟時代，財富的創造來自科技創新。
杜拉克在他的鉅著《後資本主義社會》也呼應：「在新的經濟體系裡，知識並不是和人力、資本或土地等並列的生產資源，而是唯一有意義的一項資源。」
強盜富豪紛紛落馬， 龐大的實體資產不再可靠。
大師們的讜論，宣告了一個時代的終結，及另一個時代的濫觴。擁有資本者，不再能如以往般呼風喚雨；擁有知識者卻能暢行無阻。
現實經濟社會中，這種不重資本、卻重知識的現象，已然成形。
資本主義社會下，擁有資本、土地、生產工具纔能累計財富的法則，造就了一群被稱為「強盜富豪」的各種大王︰石油大王、鋼鐵大王、鐵路大王等，如今已成過眼雲煙。二十世紀最後一位強盜富豪——微軟的比爾蓋茲，在短短20年所累積的千億美元財富，靠的也不再是對生產工具及資源的壟斷，而是知識的優勢。
同樣的現象，也可從台灣資本市場看出端倪。民國七十九年，台股指數登上12682點頂峰，當時上市公司總市值排名，依次為國壽、中銀、中鋼、一銀、華銀、彰銀、北商銀、台泥和中華開發。除了台泥和中鋼外，都是擁有龐大資產的金融股，而中鋼和台泥的市值所反應的，也是背後的龐大土地資產。
而今，過去紅極一時的金融股、營建股、資產股不但光芒盡失、跌破面值的比比皆是，即使稱霸台灣股市30年，至今獲利良好的國壽，市值也被台積電、聯電等知識密集型科技股超越，差距愈拉愈大。
產業的興衰，反映的是經濟環境的變遷以及隨之而來的經濟運作法則的更新。過去資本主導的經濟體系，根源於實體經濟中，生產需要投入大量原物料、土地、廠房、勞動力，配合運送、行銷、通路等。每一段加值過程，都是由資金的大量投入所堆積。
新經濟體系卻有一套迥然不同的法則：成本有限、機會無窮。台灣康柏電腦總經理何薇玲闡明，在網路經濟體系中，企業可以從事「無本生意」，因為資訊將以零時距、零失真、零中間附加價流竄在無邊無際的網路中，但卻可以創造「無限可能」：用戶無限、創造性無限以及國界無限。
PC home電腦家庭出版集團發行人詹宏志也觀察到網際網路帶來的經濟革命，根源於網路經濟的特性是：
趨近於零的運算成本，趨近於即時的運算速度；
趨近於零的溝通成本，趨近於即時的反應速度；
趨近於零的運輸成本，趨近於即時的服務速度。
何薇玲也進而歸納出價值的源頭，在舊體系中，它來自土地、生財器具、資本與人工；而在新經濟體系中，它來自「眼球、速度、服務、關係和供應鍊。」
這種經濟中，成本不重要，重要的是知識。
過去，帶著創意找金主， 現在，捧著鈔票搶人才！
詹宏志認為，掌握網路經濟的特性，誰能運用知識，提出一個獨特的網路構想、一個利基的經營模式，並強調組織的速度、擴大服務並迅速成長，誰就能成為網路經濟的贏家，至於經營所需的資本，一則不高，二則資本擁有者也會爭相湧向這些真正有創意的經營模式。
現今的現象是，資金擁有者拚命想敲開知識擁有者的大門。數位聯合科技總經理程嘉君與PC home Online網路家庭總經理李宏麟，近日不斷面對一批批絡繹於途的創投業者與投資者，想爭相投入他們的事業。
有創意、能將創意落實為完整經營模式的人，根本不愁找不到資金。雅虎吸引來自日本軟體銀行的資金，成為今日網路股的天之驕子；資迅人科技吸引了英特爾的資金，是台灣以知識創業的樣板；新浪網吸引了戴爾電腦的資金，為開創華人入口網站的企圖再添一道助力。去年十二月，出身網景技術副總裁的McCue所開創的Tellme Network，首次招募創投基金，就吸引矽谷最知名的Benchmark與 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等創投公司一舉投入4700萬美元，提供他們進軍互動媒體服務所需的資金。他們的網頁上，就有一幅公司員工共舉裝滿香檳的塑膠杯，相互祝賀的圖片。
此情此景，讓資金擁有者開始捧著錢，四處追尋投資機會，反應出無限資源追逐有限機會的經濟現實。矽谷有成群的創投，四處搜獵有創意、有潛力的投資標的。
嘴上無毛、身無學位沒關係， 網上工夫、美西關係更值錢！
看準網路與智慧財產產業的高成長與獲利契機，國內最大的電腦集團宏碁，不僅集資百億以投資百家網路公司，並將組織結構重新調整，成立宏智、宏網兩個次集團。全球知名的安達信顧問公司（Andersen Consulting），甘冒被指責將造成利益衝突的大不諱，集資十億美元，成立創投，將在未來五年，投資網際網路公司。
更有甚著，資金擁有者如果不能為知識擁有者帶來金錢以外的附加價值，以資金就想坐收借貸孳息的機會也愈來愈小。以存放利差賺取利潤的傳統銀行業，生存空間已日益狹窄。證券承銷商、投信、投顧、投資銀行、創投等新興金融業，獲利的重心，都來自他們為顧客所提供的服務與附加價值。一般稍具理財概念的民眾，都相信把錢投入股市或基金，獲利通常都優於存放在安全雖然無虞，但每年也只能賺取10%以下利息的銀行。
然而，要在股市獲利，依然需要知識，以最當紅的雅虎為例，一股可以買6000股臺灣營建業上市公司的股票，股價超過400美元，本益比高達2500以上，但是它眼下的投資報酬率，卻僅僅0.004%，遠遠不如存入銀行；一位企業人士只能冷眼提醒：「投資人以他們的熱情與幻想，成就網路新貴。」
網路新貴能在短短時間裡，累積百億美元身價，自有他們過人之處。何薇玲一語道出網路新貴的特徵：「嘴上無毛、身無學位、網上工夫、美西關係」。網路新貴創業時固然多半身無分文，但他們普遍呈現創業的企圖、熱情、膽識，最重要的是：他們憑藉知識所構思的經營模式。獲得創投青睞的Tellme Network，經營模式是透過該公司的加值服務，用戶可以利用傳統電話以語音上網，讓用戶享有網上的「內容、通訊與商務，」創辦人McCue宣稱。
想變成智價致富的金領階級嗎？ 看看大前研一是怎麼走過來的
即使知識掛帥，網路新貴一樣得經歷創業的艱辛付出。資迅人在師大旁被笑稱為狗窩的破舊公寓起家。雅虎楊致遠在租來的拖車裡通宵建立網路搜尋引擎。創辦網上網（Abovenet）的段曉雷，創業初期連房租、律師費都付不出來，只好以股票權充，創造了兩個借他錢的意外富翁。網景（Netscape）創辦人克拉克（Jim Clark）形容網景開發領航員（Navigator）瀏覽器軟體時，工程師們連續數個月辛苦工作的情景：「一切發展正順利的進行，日以繼夜的工作，常常深夜到丹尼餐廳（美國連鎖平價餐廳、通常開在汽車旅館附近）吃早餐。」
隨著網景上市大放異采，這些日以繼夜的工程師都在一夕致富。克拉克本人，早已擁有私人飛機，並在全球各地廣置豪宅。智價工作者，是未來最搶手的人才。元智大學遠東管理講座教授許士軍分析，在知識世紀中，個人的重要性與地位顯然將大為提升。背後的原因在於，工業社會中，生產力來自大量的生產設備與大量資本，而非個人；而在知識社會中，生產力來自個人的知識與其應用。
讓自己成為具有價值的智價工作者，是新經濟時代工作者寄望成功致富，不被時代淘汰的必然選擇。麥肯錫顧問公司日本分公司社長大前研一在他的著作《上班族生死存亡戰》中指出，上班族可分為「單純勞動集中型」「知識勞動集中型」與「知識白領」三類。其中收入最高的自然為第三種，以知識附加價值的成果來決定薪資，許士軍甚至稱之為「金領階級」，他們必須和分布全球的夥伴工作，時常保持聯繫溝通，並具備多項工作能力。
要成為知識白領，當然要付出過人的努力。詹宏志認為，新經濟時代，工作者必須具備下列人格特質：對新生事物的開放與熱情、對改變的認識與接受、對異質文化的了解與包容、對速度的熟悉適應。大前研一則以自己為例，說明他在七○年代，從初進麥肯錫，被人譏為「公牛身上的乳房」（完全沒用的人），經過過人的努力而登上社長，每日拿到150萬日幣報酬的過程。
當時，大前研一每天晚上在公司研讀過去的資料，直到搭最後一班電車回家；用錄音的方式，想像自己面對客戶提出解決問題的方法，並反覆修正；在電車上，將第一眼看到的廣告，列為向自己發問的題目，反覆構思如何為客戶提出提高銷售量的方案，用什麼方法宣傳、銷售，如此日復一日，訓練自己「對客戶提出問題馬上能在腦子裡分析、找答案」的迅速反應能力。
就像詹宏志在《電腦上班族》雜誌創刊號的發刊詞上所說的，工作者必須經常自問：當下一個工作來臨時，你在哪裡？
你重視眼前的金錢利益，還是未來的知識？
十年前，一位以創意為業的企畫人曾經感慨，做這行沒前途，「點子不說出來，沒人會付你錢，點子一說出來，人家聽了就走，也不會付你錢」。時代變了，下一世代，知識有價，已經無庸置疑。
跨領域優勢：多元職能
大前研一在上班族生死存亡戰這本書中提到，人力會出現三極化，當中最具有價值及競爭優勢的是「知識白領」，以知識附加價值成果決定薪資，而知識白領的一項特色就是具備高度的多項工作能力。
工作逐漸模糊 趁早培養核心才能
德利多富服務部門協理吳秩顯，系統整合、行銷、服務的工作都從事過，累積了極大能量，讓他不僅不畏懼中年職場危機，還成為人力仲介頻頻接觸的搶手人才。
長江人力資源研究中心總經理高明智指出，多項職能可以有幾種含意，可以說是第二專長，也可以說是廣泛性專業，以及核心才能。《新工作潮》一書中指出，工作會消失，但核心才能永遠都存在。高明智認為，未來職場競爭會更激烈，也就更需要核心才能。什麼是核心才能？高明智提出，將知識、技能與態度三者，形成綜合性能力，並突顯與他人不同之處，然後融入個人特質，便形成無法取代的核心才能。
他以自己的弟弟為例，目前擔任一家數據機製造商的總經理，介面卡、OS（作業系統）及硬碟都懂，而在台灣要找到這三種皆懂的人才恐怕不多，加上他曾經被派到英國工作，有國際觀，將這些元素結合，就形成了核心才能。
高明智還提到另一項概念「廣泛專業」，對於想要成為領導階層者尤其重要；生產、銷售、人力資源、研發、財務五項當中，「會一項只能當課長，會兩項頂多當經理等中階主管，會三項才能當總經理」他說。
鉅林資訊行銷專員楊炳勳，本來做的是技術，後來因為興趣轉做業務、行銷，技術背景出身的他認為，有了技術為基礎，可以更加清楚客戶的需求，也增加自己專業權威，工作之餘還在政大公企中心上行銷課程，因為他認為深處高科技產業，敏銳度更要高。
像楊炳勳一樣從技術轉業務、管理的大有人在，工作表現更是不輸學商的，在高科技公司更是位居要津，像是趨勢科技台灣區總經理丘立全、物訊科技總經理方光輝都是如此......
工作逐漸模糊 趁早培養核心才能
德利多富服務部門協理吳秩顯，系統整合、行銷、服務的工作都從事過，累積了極大能量，讓他不僅不畏懼中年職場危機，還成為人力仲介頻頻接觸的搶手人才。
長江人力資源研究中心總經理高明智指出，多項職能可以有幾種含意，可以說是第二專長，也可以說是廣泛性專業，以及核心才能。《新工作潮》一書中指出，工作會消失，但核心才能永遠都存在。高明智認為，未來職場競爭會更激烈，也就更需要核心才能。什麼是核心才能？高明智提出，將知識、技能與態度三者，形成綜合性能力，並突顯與他人不同之處，然後融入個人特質，便形成無法取代的核心才能。
他以自己的弟弟為例，目前擔任一家數據機製造商的總經理，介面卡、OS（作業系統）及硬碟都懂，而在台灣要找到這三種皆懂的人才恐怕不多，加上他曾經被派到英國工作，有國際觀，將這些元素結合，就形成了核心才能。
高明智還提到另一項概念「廣泛專業」，對於想要成為領導階層者尤其重要；生產、銷售、人力資源、研發、財務五項當中，「會一項只能當課長，會兩項頂多當經理等中階主管，會三項才能當總經理」他說。
鉅林資訊行銷專員楊炳勳，本來做的是技術，後來因為興趣轉做業務、行銷，技術背景出身的他認為，有了技術為基礎，可以更加清楚客戶的需求，也增加自己專業權威，工作之餘還在政大公企中心上行銷課程，因為他認為深處高科技產業，敏銳度更要高。
像楊炳勳一樣從技術轉業務、管理的大有人在，工作表現更是不輸學商的，在高科技公司更是位居要津，像是趨勢科技台灣區總經理丘立全、物訊科技總經理方光輝都是如此......
Sunday, July 12, 2009
INSIDER BUYING: Abterra, Oceanus, Design Studio
*ABTERRA: General Nice Resource (HK) is the parent company of Abterra.
Abterra, a supply chain manager of resources and minerals, said recently that it is likely to benefit from rising coking coal prices. Reuters reported on 28 June that China's steel production is soaring way over estimates and the country had paid for a shipment of coking coal at a price higher than the benchmark price.
The Jiaozhong coking coal mine of Abterra.
Abterra is on track to become a sizeable player in the cking coal industry. Its CEO, Jaffe Lau, said in a press release: “We have set ambitious targets and have the resources to deliver on those targets. The target of the Group is to continue to make strategic acquisitions of coking coal mines to grow our production capacity to 5million tonnes per annum in the next 2-3 years.”
In another announcement, in early June, Abterra said it had entered into a share swap agreement with a HK strategic partner.
The noteworthy point is that Abterra will swap 255 million Abterra shares at 12.3 cents apiece – significantly higher than the market price then and currently of 5.5 cents - in exchange for 385 million of LeRoi Holdings at HKD 43.5 cents.
The two companies will explore investment opportunities together in the coking coal, coke and iron ore mining industry.
One of the abalone meals at Ah-Yat-Oceanus joint-venture restaurant chain in China.
* OCEANUS: Prior to the emergence of Capital Group of Companies as a substantial shareholder, Oceanus had obtained direct funding of S$73.5 million from two private equity firms.
They are Ocean Wonder International Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of AIF Capital Asia III L.P, and Hupomone Capital Partners Singapore Pte Ltd and strategic investors.
Dr Ng Cher Yew, Executive Chairman of Oceanus, commented, “During this difficult time of the financial crunch and economic uncertainty, we are pleased to announce that the investment interest in this financing exercise was overwhelming.”
Oceanus is the world’s largest land-based producer of premium quality Japanese abalones.
Various aspects of the apartments at The Reflections @ Keppel are installed by Design Studio.
DESIGN STUDIO FURNITURE MANUFACTURER: The leading premier furniture manufacturer, product and interior fitting-out specialist in Singapore reported a record net profit of S$4.3 million in 1Q2009 ended 31 March 2009, a 153.2% surge from that of 1Q2008.
Net cash flow from operating activities remains strong at S$3.3 million.
Cash balance of S$33.0 million as at 31 March 2009 translates to cash per share of S$0.13.
Wong Swee Chun, 71, is the founder of Straits Construction Co. Pte Ltd, a builder of HDB flats. Mr Wong not only has a direct interest of 4.57% in Design Studio but also a deemed interest in the 51.98 million shares (20.47%) held by Straits Construction.
Abterra, a supply chain manager of resources and minerals, said recently that it is likely to benefit from rising coking coal prices. Reuters reported on 28 June that China's steel production is soaring way over estimates and the country had paid for a shipment of coking coal at a price higher than the benchmark price.
The Jiaozhong coking coal mine of Abterra.
Abterra is on track to become a sizeable player in the cking coal industry. Its CEO, Jaffe Lau, said in a press release: “We have set ambitious targets and have the resources to deliver on those targets. The target of the Group is to continue to make strategic acquisitions of coking coal mines to grow our production capacity to 5million tonnes per annum in the next 2-3 years.”
In another announcement, in early June, Abterra said it had entered into a share swap agreement with a HK strategic partner.
The noteworthy point is that Abterra will swap 255 million Abterra shares at 12.3 cents apiece – significantly higher than the market price then and currently of 5.5 cents - in exchange for 385 million of LeRoi Holdings at HKD 43.5 cents.
The two companies will explore investment opportunities together in the coking coal, coke and iron ore mining industry.
One of the abalone meals at Ah-Yat-Oceanus joint-venture restaurant chain in China.
* OCEANUS: Prior to the emergence of Capital Group of Companies as a substantial shareholder, Oceanus had obtained direct funding of S$73.5 million from two private equity firms.
They are Ocean Wonder International Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of AIF Capital Asia III L.P, and Hupomone Capital Partners Singapore Pte Ltd and strategic investors.
Dr Ng Cher Yew, Executive Chairman of Oceanus, commented, “During this difficult time of the financial crunch and economic uncertainty, we are pleased to announce that the investment interest in this financing exercise was overwhelming.”
Oceanus is the world’s largest land-based producer of premium quality Japanese abalones.
Various aspects of the apartments at The Reflections @ Keppel are installed by Design Studio.
DESIGN STUDIO FURNITURE MANUFACTURER: The leading premier furniture manufacturer, product and interior fitting-out specialist in Singapore reported a record net profit of S$4.3 million in 1Q2009 ended 31 March 2009, a 153.2% surge from that of 1Q2008.
Net cash flow from operating activities remains strong at S$3.3 million.
Cash balance of S$33.0 million as at 31 March 2009 translates to cash per share of S$0.13.
Wong Swee Chun, 71, is the founder of Straits Construction Co. Pte Ltd, a builder of HDB flats. Mr Wong not only has a direct interest of 4.57% in Design Studio but also a deemed interest in the 51.98 million shares (20.47%) held by Straits Construction.
Residential leasing - the laws of demand and supply
RENTS of private residential property have been correcting since August last year, in line with the weak economy. While the traditionally busy period in April saw a surprise 2 per cent spike in rental values, the question is whether a more sustainable recovery is in sight. To get an answer to this, we have to look at the supply-demand dynamics in the residential market.
A quarter of Singapore's 4.84 million residents are foreigners, and this is the group that drives the leasing market. This is because Singaporeans generally don't rent, choosing to live with their parents until they can buy their own homes.
Employment in the services sector grew by over 30 per cent in 2007, especially in financial and professional services, according to numbers from the Ministry of Manpower. This is a major factor accounting for the surge in the expatriate workforce. Foreign employment stood at 1.06 million, or 35 per cent of the total workforce of 2.95 million.
The profile of the expatriate workforce has evolved through the years. Expatriate employment is no longer limited to top management posts and now includes middle management and executive functions. There is a wider variety of expatriates as well -from Europeans and Americans to other Asian nationalities; and from singles to couples with teenage kids. Depending on demographics and employment status, their accommodation preferences vary.
For expatriates, location is a key consideration. They would prefer to stay 1) near transportation and amenities (MRT station, malls, even expatriate clubs), 2) near schools, and 3) close to the workplace. Residential projects that meet these criteria will generally see steady demand which means they can command good rentals.
Expatriate packages
Expatriate packages have been revised with the changing times. It is rare today to see the typical full expatriate relocation package that covers housing, car, club and school costs. With tighter budgets, mid-management expatriates are now mostly offered a package under localised terms that covers accommodation costs. Or it may be a hybrid package that offers a mix of benefits.
The expat housing terms usually fall into three categories. The first, a corporate lease, allows the landlord to deal directly with the employer. It is most commonly adopted for a full expatriate or hybrid relocation package.
The other two forms of leases, namely 1) corporate lease with personal indemnity and 2) personal lease, are usually signed under a package with localised terms. Under these terms, the employee is responsible for the expenses under the lease. The only difference is that under a personal lease, the leasing contract is between the employee and the landlord. Under a corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, the employer signs the leasing contract with the landlord while the personal indemnity is borne by the employee.
Under the latter two leases, the tenant bears the burden of any additional cost in a lease should it exceed the allocated budget. If the rent is below the allocated budget, the tenant who takes up a personal lease enjoys the savings. For the tenant who uses the corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, any savings on rent is split between the company and the tenant. This burden of costs/savings will have a major impact when it comes to rental negotiations.
Supply
A collective sale frenzy in 2006 and 2007 saw a slew of prime residential projects taken off the market for redevelopment, especially in districts 9, 10 and 11. There were close to 100 such developments transacted in the two years, which reduced the leasing inventory by about 6,000 units.
In the interim, the impact of this large withdrawal has been greatly felt. Of course, this removed stock will eventually return to the market as new supply. While this will give tenants more choices, landlords will face greater competition, especially if the economy doesn't improve and demand remains muted.
There are an estimated 4,000 prime residential units due to be completed by 2011. These include both luxury (usually with larger units) and typical prime units. Following the popularity of luxury units during the property boom, there are a few such projects scheduled to come into the market in the next two years. They include The Marq (66 units), The Hilltops (241 units), Ritz Carlton Residences (58 units), Ardmore II (118 units), Grange Infinite (68 units) and Orchard Residences (175 units).
This does not include the projects sold en bloc to developers for redevelopment into luxury condominiums which have yet to get their sales licences. As such, the names or number of units in these developments are not known. Among these projects are Ardmore III (Wheelock Properties), Pin Tjoe Court (Pontiac Land Group), Anderson 18 (joint venture between Wing Tai and City Developments), The Ardmore (SC Global), Lucky Tower (City Developments), Beverly Mai (HPL Properties) and Grangeford (OUE).
Rents are expected to come under severe pressure when ample new supply comes onstream at a time when market demand is weakening.
Overview and outlook
With the dampened sentiment in the corporate sector, housing budgets have seen cuts of 10-20 per cent. Expatriates, especially those on personal lease or corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, will be motivated to downsize or be on the lookout for discounted rents as they seek greater savings.
The softening demand and the new supply of some 2,000 non-landed units in the first quarter have put further downward pressure on rents. Some large completed projects include Rivergate (545 units), The Suites at Central (157 units) and the remaining City Square Residences (estimated at 439 units). In addition, there were about 1,600 previously en bloc units that have been released back into the rental market as short-term leases at much discounted rental rates.
These are the main reasons for the major rental correction of about 18 per cent over the past few months. Any recovery of the leasing market in April 2009 can be attributed to the following factors. Traditionally, the months from April to July are the seasonal highs in lease take-ups and renewals. Leases are usually signed to coincide with the summer break in international schools.
Islandwide demand has remained fairly stable as the retrenchment of the expatriate workforce in the financial sector was offset by new hires in other industries such as R&D and biomedical science. In addition, there has been restructuring of some financial institutions where business units in Europe and the US have been relocated to Singapore to tap into Asia's growing wealth.
A recent survey of five large, Singapore-based moving companies by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore has shown that inbound shipments rose more than 10 per cent from 2007 to 2008 and outbound shipments increased nearly 8 per cent from 2007 to 2008. However, they are expected to drop by 2 per cent in 2009.
As a cautionary note, there could be a delay in the correction of expatriate demand as most expatriates today hold personal employment passes (PEP). Under this scheme, PEP holders do not need to re-apply for a new employment pass when changing jobs. They also can stay for up to six months here without any valid employment compared to only two months previously. Should the employment market remain weak, we may begin to see a delayed exodus of these expatriates if they do not get re-employed soon.
Leasing demand may also soften as more expatriates weigh the attractions of buying their own home as opposed to leasing it. With the current low interest rates and discounted housing prices, it is possible that expatriates who have been living in Singapore for some time may seek a more permanent accommodation and residential status.
Having said that, supply remains limited this year, especially for larger luxury units. Existing projects such as The Claymore, Claymore Point, Four Seasons Park, Ardmore Park, The Colonnade, Regency Park, and Yong An Park are enjoying high occupancies. As such, renovated units in these older developments are still commanding high rentals.
Similarly, supply of quality residential projects in prime districts remains limited this year. The spillover demand for luxury projects will likely benefit these sub-markets. Residential projects in the prime districts are still the preferred choice for many expatriates.
But with more completions in the pipeline, impending supply remains the biggest concern for the market. Unless the global economy picks up and expatriate inflows increase, prospects for the leasing market here will be bearish, particularly in the luxury segment.
A quarter of Singapore's 4.84 million residents are foreigners, and this is the group that drives the leasing market. This is because Singaporeans generally don't rent, choosing to live with their parents until they can buy their own homes.
Employment in the services sector grew by over 30 per cent in 2007, especially in financial and professional services, according to numbers from the Ministry of Manpower. This is a major factor accounting for the surge in the expatriate workforce. Foreign employment stood at 1.06 million, or 35 per cent of the total workforce of 2.95 million.
The profile of the expatriate workforce has evolved through the years. Expatriate employment is no longer limited to top management posts and now includes middle management and executive functions. There is a wider variety of expatriates as well -from Europeans and Americans to other Asian nationalities; and from singles to couples with teenage kids. Depending on demographics and employment status, their accommodation preferences vary.
For expatriates, location is a key consideration. They would prefer to stay 1) near transportation and amenities (MRT station, malls, even expatriate clubs), 2) near schools, and 3) close to the workplace. Residential projects that meet these criteria will generally see steady demand which means they can command good rentals.
Expatriate packages
Expatriate packages have been revised with the changing times. It is rare today to see the typical full expatriate relocation package that covers housing, car, club and school costs. With tighter budgets, mid-management expatriates are now mostly offered a package under localised terms that covers accommodation costs. Or it may be a hybrid package that offers a mix of benefits.
The expat housing terms usually fall into three categories. The first, a corporate lease, allows the landlord to deal directly with the employer. It is most commonly adopted for a full expatriate or hybrid relocation package.
The other two forms of leases, namely 1) corporate lease with personal indemnity and 2) personal lease, are usually signed under a package with localised terms. Under these terms, the employee is responsible for the expenses under the lease. The only difference is that under a personal lease, the leasing contract is between the employee and the landlord. Under a corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, the employer signs the leasing contract with the landlord while the personal indemnity is borne by the employee.
Under the latter two leases, the tenant bears the burden of any additional cost in a lease should it exceed the allocated budget. If the rent is below the allocated budget, the tenant who takes up a personal lease enjoys the savings. For the tenant who uses the corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, any savings on rent is split between the company and the tenant. This burden of costs/savings will have a major impact when it comes to rental negotiations.
Supply
A collective sale frenzy in 2006 and 2007 saw a slew of prime residential projects taken off the market for redevelopment, especially in districts 9, 10 and 11. There were close to 100 such developments transacted in the two years, which reduced the leasing inventory by about 6,000 units.
In the interim, the impact of this large withdrawal has been greatly felt. Of course, this removed stock will eventually return to the market as new supply. While this will give tenants more choices, landlords will face greater competition, especially if the economy doesn't improve and demand remains muted.
There are an estimated 4,000 prime residential units due to be completed by 2011. These include both luxury (usually with larger units) and typical prime units. Following the popularity of luxury units during the property boom, there are a few such projects scheduled to come into the market in the next two years. They include The Marq (66 units), The Hilltops (241 units), Ritz Carlton Residences (58 units), Ardmore II (118 units), Grange Infinite (68 units) and Orchard Residences (175 units).
This does not include the projects sold en bloc to developers for redevelopment into luxury condominiums which have yet to get their sales licences. As such, the names or number of units in these developments are not known. Among these projects are Ardmore III (Wheelock Properties), Pin Tjoe Court (Pontiac Land Group), Anderson 18 (joint venture between Wing Tai and City Developments), The Ardmore (SC Global), Lucky Tower (City Developments), Beverly Mai (HPL Properties) and Grangeford (OUE).
Rents are expected to come under severe pressure when ample new supply comes onstream at a time when market demand is weakening.
Overview and outlook
With the dampened sentiment in the corporate sector, housing budgets have seen cuts of 10-20 per cent. Expatriates, especially those on personal lease or corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, will be motivated to downsize or be on the lookout for discounted rents as they seek greater savings.
The softening demand and the new supply of some 2,000 non-landed units in the first quarter have put further downward pressure on rents. Some large completed projects include Rivergate (545 units), The Suites at Central (157 units) and the remaining City Square Residences (estimated at 439 units). In addition, there were about 1,600 previously en bloc units that have been released back into the rental market as short-term leases at much discounted rental rates.
These are the main reasons for the major rental correction of about 18 per cent over the past few months. Any recovery of the leasing market in April 2009 can be attributed to the following factors. Traditionally, the months from April to July are the seasonal highs in lease take-ups and renewals. Leases are usually signed to coincide with the summer break in international schools.
Islandwide demand has remained fairly stable as the retrenchment of the expatriate workforce in the financial sector was offset by new hires in other industries such as R&D and biomedical science. In addition, there has been restructuring of some financial institutions where business units in Europe and the US have been relocated to Singapore to tap into Asia's growing wealth.
A recent survey of five large, Singapore-based moving companies by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore has shown that inbound shipments rose more than 10 per cent from 2007 to 2008 and outbound shipments increased nearly 8 per cent from 2007 to 2008. However, they are expected to drop by 2 per cent in 2009.
As a cautionary note, there could be a delay in the correction of expatriate demand as most expatriates today hold personal employment passes (PEP). Under this scheme, PEP holders do not need to re-apply for a new employment pass when changing jobs. They also can stay for up to six months here without any valid employment compared to only two months previously. Should the employment market remain weak, we may begin to see a delayed exodus of these expatriates if they do not get re-employed soon.
Leasing demand may also soften as more expatriates weigh the attractions of buying their own home as opposed to leasing it. With the current low interest rates and discounted housing prices, it is possible that expatriates who have been living in Singapore for some time may seek a more permanent accommodation and residential status.
Having said that, supply remains limited this year, especially for larger luxury units. Existing projects such as The Claymore, Claymore Point, Four Seasons Park, Ardmore Park, The Colonnade, Regency Park, and Yong An Park are enjoying high occupancies. As such, renovated units in these older developments are still commanding high rentals.
Similarly, supply of quality residential projects in prime districts remains limited this year. The spillover demand for luxury projects will likely benefit these sub-markets. Residential projects in the prime districts are still the preferred choice for many expatriates.
But with more completions in the pipeline, impending supply remains the biggest concern for the market. Unless the global economy picks up and expatriate inflows increase, prospects for the leasing market here will be bearish, particularly in the luxury segment.
Tips for investing in property
REAL estate is among the world's safest investments in that it cannot be lost, stolen or carried away. If managed with reasonable care, its value can be maintained or even enhanced. In Singapore, a property cycle typically lasts four to seven years.
As such, a property investor should have a similar investment horizon to ride out any market vagaries so as to best enjoy rental and capital appreciation over time. Empirical evidence has shown that the longer the investment horizon, the greater the likelihood of making a profit, and higher profits at that.
For example, a unit at Ardmore Park which was bought for $4.4 million in 2005 was sold in May this year for $6.2 million, representing a healthy profit of about 40 per cent. This has yet to take into account rental income that may have been earned over the period.
Rental yields are an attractive enticement for property investors, giving them a steady stream of cashflow in good times and bad. Typically, gross residential rental yields stand at 3-5 per cent, depending on the location, project and tenure of the property.
Investors seeking rental yields should note that while residential yields have improved markedly since property prices declined from their peak in mid-2008, rents are now correcting, and are likely to continue their slide till year's end at least.
There was a recent spike in rental yields, which is due to rents falling at a slower rate than prices. According to Q1 2009 data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), property prices islandwide have declined by some 21 per cent from the peak while rents have come off some 14 per cent.
High-end residential yields have risen from a low of 2.8 per cent in Q4 2007 to 3.5 per cent in Q1 2009. However, they are expected to stabilise around the long-term average of 3- 3.4 per cent in the near- to mid-term. This is on the expectation that prices will moderate their decline from here while rents remain weak in the face of strong new housing supply this year.
However, residential prices have shown recent signs of consolidation, supported by opportunistic home purchases at discounted prices, introduction of the interest absorption scheme as well as pent-up demand in certain areas.
Leveraging
Positive carry, which is the difference between the cost of financing the property and rental income, looks set to shrink further on falling rents. This is an important factor for investors who look to pay off their mortgages with rental income. But a positive carry still exists and it can be particularly rewarding for those who can finance their properties with a larger portion of equity or a lower loan-to-value ratio.
This is made possible by the current low interest rates - Singapore's three-month interbank rate has steadied near an all-time low of 0.69 per cent since the beginning of the year. This represents an excellent opportunity for property investors to take advantage of relatively low borrowing costs to maximise their return on equity (ROE).
Take for example a studio apartment that costs $400,000, a borrowing cost of 2 per cent per annum and an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio. In this case, a yield of 4 per cent would lead to an ROE of 1.76 per cent. By bringing down the loan-to-value ratio to 60 per cent, ROE would improve to 3.1 per cent. This rate of return is higher than the savings and time deposit rates today.
Taking potential capital appreciation into consideration, ROE could be even higher. Extending the above example, an investor's ROE would rise to 25 per cent on the assumption of a loan-to-value ratio of 60 per cent and capital appreciation of 10 per cent. So, with proper use of leveraging, one can maximise returns.
Location, location, location
Location, location, location is the mantra of those looking to invest in property. It seems easy enough to say 'Let's buy in Orchard Road' or 'Let's buy East Coast' just because these are well-established residential locations. But what are the factors that make a good location? Why do people want to own or rent a property in a given location? These are the demand drivers that we need to understand.
What makes living in Orchard Road attractive? Beyond the glitz of the shopping belt, it is the proximity to international schools, the Central Business District, the up-and-coming Marina Bay Sands integrated resort (IR) as well as the excellent road and rail connectivity to other parts of Singapore.
The future development of the area is also important. The impact of the up-and-coming IR on residential property is probably best demonstrated by the prices fetched by The Sail @ Marina Bay. In 2004, six months before the IRs were confirmed, the price for the first residential tower was launched at $900 per sq ft (psf).
About a year later, about six months after the IR was given the green light, the second tower was launched at $1,080 psf. After that, resale prices escalated to more than $2,000 psf at the peak of the market.
More recently, the government has focused on building up Singapore as a leading R&D hub in Asia and earmarked areas like one-north in Buona Vista for development.
One-north is a 200-hectare project designed to house Singapore's growing biomedical, infocomm and digital media industries. As such, condominiums in the vicinity like one-north Residences have been well received, with many investors buying for potentially good rentals.
Affordability
In times of economic uncertainty, it pays to be prudent. One should be careful not to borrow too much. Maintaining a debt service ratio of 25-30 per cent of income is ideal as it allows some buffer for any rise in mortgage rates.
Savills' affordability index showed that the average household's ability to service its monthly mortgage repayment has improved. From a peak of 40 per cent in Q3 2007, the debt service ratio has dropped to 26 per cent as at Q4 2008, following the steep price declines.
Valuation
It is important to be familiar with property prices in the vicinity to ensure that one does not overpay. Generally, when buying a new property from a developer, you have greater certainty that banks would be able to match the valuation. In the secondary market, buyers would do well to get a bank valuation on the property before committing, to avoid overpaying.
Risks-rewards
Going by past transactions, prime properties - though more volatile - offer better potential for capital appreciation as investors in this segment are perceived to be less price sensitive.
The recent bull cycle saw the average price of residential properties in our basket for Districts 1, 4, 9, 10, and 11 rise from $1,250 psf in Q1 2005 to $2,400 psf in Q4 2007. Since then, the average price has slipped about 30 per cent to $1,640 psf as at Q1 2009. Given a reasonable investment horizon, there is potential for peak prices to be regained again.
When is it a good time to buy? That's a question many buyers ask. Everyone wants to land a good deal given that property is a big-ticket investment. In some instances, just waiting a few months can mean saving tens of thousands of dollars.
However, the reverse is also true - one may end up paying more if the market suddenly turns up. It's never easy trying to call the bottom of a market as one often only knows it in hindsight.
As such, a property investor should have a similar investment horizon to ride out any market vagaries so as to best enjoy rental and capital appreciation over time. Empirical evidence has shown that the longer the investment horizon, the greater the likelihood of making a profit, and higher profits at that.
For example, a unit at Ardmore Park which was bought for $4.4 million in 2005 was sold in May this year for $6.2 million, representing a healthy profit of about 40 per cent. This has yet to take into account rental income that may have been earned over the period.
Rental yields are an attractive enticement for property investors, giving them a steady stream of cashflow in good times and bad. Typically, gross residential rental yields stand at 3-5 per cent, depending on the location, project and tenure of the property.
Investors seeking rental yields should note that while residential yields have improved markedly since property prices declined from their peak in mid-2008, rents are now correcting, and are likely to continue their slide till year's end at least.
There was a recent spike in rental yields, which is due to rents falling at a slower rate than prices. According to Q1 2009 data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), property prices islandwide have declined by some 21 per cent from the peak while rents have come off some 14 per cent.
High-end residential yields have risen from a low of 2.8 per cent in Q4 2007 to 3.5 per cent in Q1 2009. However, they are expected to stabilise around the long-term average of 3- 3.4 per cent in the near- to mid-term. This is on the expectation that prices will moderate their decline from here while rents remain weak in the face of strong new housing supply this year.
However, residential prices have shown recent signs of consolidation, supported by opportunistic home purchases at discounted prices, introduction of the interest absorption scheme as well as pent-up demand in certain areas.
Leveraging
Positive carry, which is the difference between the cost of financing the property and rental income, looks set to shrink further on falling rents. This is an important factor for investors who look to pay off their mortgages with rental income. But a positive carry still exists and it can be particularly rewarding for those who can finance their properties with a larger portion of equity or a lower loan-to-value ratio.
This is made possible by the current low interest rates - Singapore's three-month interbank rate has steadied near an all-time low of 0.69 per cent since the beginning of the year. This represents an excellent opportunity for property investors to take advantage of relatively low borrowing costs to maximise their return on equity (ROE).
Take for example a studio apartment that costs $400,000, a borrowing cost of 2 per cent per annum and an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio. In this case, a yield of 4 per cent would lead to an ROE of 1.76 per cent. By bringing down the loan-to-value ratio to 60 per cent, ROE would improve to 3.1 per cent. This rate of return is higher than the savings and time deposit rates today.
Taking potential capital appreciation into consideration, ROE could be even higher. Extending the above example, an investor's ROE would rise to 25 per cent on the assumption of a loan-to-value ratio of 60 per cent and capital appreciation of 10 per cent. So, with proper use of leveraging, one can maximise returns.
Location, location, location
Location, location, location is the mantra of those looking to invest in property. It seems easy enough to say 'Let's buy in Orchard Road' or 'Let's buy East Coast' just because these are well-established residential locations. But what are the factors that make a good location? Why do people want to own or rent a property in a given location? These are the demand drivers that we need to understand.
What makes living in Orchard Road attractive? Beyond the glitz of the shopping belt, it is the proximity to international schools, the Central Business District, the up-and-coming Marina Bay Sands integrated resort (IR) as well as the excellent road and rail connectivity to other parts of Singapore.
The future development of the area is also important. The impact of the up-and-coming IR on residential property is probably best demonstrated by the prices fetched by The Sail @ Marina Bay. In 2004, six months before the IRs were confirmed, the price for the first residential tower was launched at $900 per sq ft (psf).
About a year later, about six months after the IR was given the green light, the second tower was launched at $1,080 psf. After that, resale prices escalated to more than $2,000 psf at the peak of the market.
More recently, the government has focused on building up Singapore as a leading R&D hub in Asia and earmarked areas like one-north in Buona Vista for development.
One-north is a 200-hectare project designed to house Singapore's growing biomedical, infocomm and digital media industries. As such, condominiums in the vicinity like one-north Residences have been well received, with many investors buying for potentially good rentals.
Affordability
In times of economic uncertainty, it pays to be prudent. One should be careful not to borrow too much. Maintaining a debt service ratio of 25-30 per cent of income is ideal as it allows some buffer for any rise in mortgage rates.
Savills' affordability index showed that the average household's ability to service its monthly mortgage repayment has improved. From a peak of 40 per cent in Q3 2007, the debt service ratio has dropped to 26 per cent as at Q4 2008, following the steep price declines.
Valuation
It is important to be familiar with property prices in the vicinity to ensure that one does not overpay. Generally, when buying a new property from a developer, you have greater certainty that banks would be able to match the valuation. In the secondary market, buyers would do well to get a bank valuation on the property before committing, to avoid overpaying.
Risks-rewards
Going by past transactions, prime properties - though more volatile - offer better potential for capital appreciation as investors in this segment are perceived to be less price sensitive.
The recent bull cycle saw the average price of residential properties in our basket for Districts 1, 4, 9, 10, and 11 rise from $1,250 psf in Q1 2005 to $2,400 psf in Q4 2007. Since then, the average price has slipped about 30 per cent to $1,640 psf as at Q1 2009. Given a reasonable investment horizon, there is potential for peak prices to be regained again.
When is it a good time to buy? That's a question many buyers ask. Everyone wants to land a good deal given that property is a big-ticket investment. In some instances, just waiting a few months can mean saving tens of thousands of dollars.
However, the reverse is also true - one may end up paying more if the market suddenly turns up. It's never easy trying to call the bottom of a market as one often only knows it in hindsight.
Property market continues riding on buying mood
PROPERTY market activity continued in the first week of last month as more private homes were launched - or re-launched - to ride the buying momentum.
Bukit Sembawang Estates said yesterday that it has sold 50 of the 78 units at Luxus Hills, a 999-year leasehold landed development at Ang Mio Kio, in a preview. Intermediate terrace homes were sold for an average of $1,085 per sq ft of land area, while corner terraces went for an average of $980 psf.
BT understands that agents have also started to market prime projects, including GuocoLand's 272-unit freehold Sophia Residence, City Developments's 85-unit project on the former Garden Hotel site and Wing Tai's 346-unit Ascentia Sky in Alexandra Road.
For Sophia Residences, asking prices range from $1,400-$1,600 psf. For CityDev's project, agents are quoting $1,800-$2,000 psf. At Ascentia Sky, a limited number of units have been released at prices ranging from $1,150- $1,350 psf.
Other developers are re-launching projects. CapitaLand is believed to have re-launched Latitude in the River Valley area last week. Asking prices range from about $1,600-$1,900 psf, a significant decline from $2,600 psf fetched for the 11 units sold from September 2007 to April 2008. Far East Organization re-launched Silversea a few weeks ago, selling some units at $1,250-$1,400 psf.
Developers can be expected to expedite new launches and continue promoting already-launched projects over the next two weeks as the Hungry Ghost month - which is traditionally slow for property sales - draws near.
Sales at recently launched projects have continued apace. 'We visited show flats for a few mid and prime projects last weekend,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee in a July-6 note. 'More developers are now offering additional price discounts of 2-5 per cent during soft launches to incentivise buyers.'
Prices rose 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q2, Mr Lee said. 'Along with a flat stock market performance, we believe this has led to a less fervent show-flat turnout. However, sales volumes remain healthy.'
In an update, Far East Organization said yesterday that it has sold 130 apartments at its 280-unit Vista Residences at Thomson.
Separately, Credo Real Estate yesterday released for sale by tender a cluster of 18 shophouses at Joo Chiat/Onan Road. The properties are owned by a family trust, which is seeking offers in the region of $25 million to $30 million. The freehold site is 35,440 sq ft and the total gross floor area of the shophouses is 62,489 sq ft.
Bukit Sembawang Estates said yesterday that it has sold 50 of the 78 units at Luxus Hills, a 999-year leasehold landed development at Ang Mio Kio, in a preview. Intermediate terrace homes were sold for an average of $1,085 per sq ft of land area, while corner terraces went for an average of $980 psf.
BT understands that agents have also started to market prime projects, including GuocoLand's 272-unit freehold Sophia Residence, City Developments's 85-unit project on the former Garden Hotel site and Wing Tai's 346-unit Ascentia Sky in Alexandra Road.
For Sophia Residences, asking prices range from $1,400-$1,600 psf. For CityDev's project, agents are quoting $1,800-$2,000 psf. At Ascentia Sky, a limited number of units have been released at prices ranging from $1,150- $1,350 psf.
Other developers are re-launching projects. CapitaLand is believed to have re-launched Latitude in the River Valley area last week. Asking prices range from about $1,600-$1,900 psf, a significant decline from $2,600 psf fetched for the 11 units sold from September 2007 to April 2008. Far East Organization re-launched Silversea a few weeks ago, selling some units at $1,250-$1,400 psf.
Developers can be expected to expedite new launches and continue promoting already-launched projects over the next two weeks as the Hungry Ghost month - which is traditionally slow for property sales - draws near.
Sales at recently launched projects have continued apace. 'We visited show flats for a few mid and prime projects last weekend,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee in a July-6 note. 'More developers are now offering additional price discounts of 2-5 per cent during soft launches to incentivise buyers.'
Prices rose 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q2, Mr Lee said. 'Along with a flat stock market performance, we believe this has led to a less fervent show-flat turnout. However, sales volumes remain healthy.'
In an update, Far East Organization said yesterday that it has sold 130 apartments at its 280-unit Vista Residences at Thomson.
Separately, Credo Real Estate yesterday released for sale by tender a cluster of 18 shophouses at Joo Chiat/Onan Road. The properties are owned by a family trust, which is seeking offers in the region of $25 million to $30 million. The freehold site is 35,440 sq ft and the total gross floor area of the shophouses is 62,489 sq ft.
Making sense of housing loans
SENTIMENT seems to have made a 180-degree turn in the property market in recent months with buyers coming out in force as the economic outlook stabilises. Sellers have been known to up asking prices by 10 per cent or more. Some home buyers who were taking a wait and see attitude a few months ago rushed in to buy properties.
But before you join the rush, remember that buying a property is a long-term commitment. Make sure you can comfortably service your mortgage by capping your debt-service ratio at 35 per cent of your gross income. On top of that you should set aside enough funds to service at least six months of your housing loan instalments. This would provide some buffer should you suffer a pay cut or job loss.
Home buyers might also want to take note that supply of homes should be ample, going forward. Between 2009 and 2013, a total of 55,838 condo units are expected to be completed, according to numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The supply more than meets the average demand of about 8,000 units a year.
Some developers are offering an interest absorption scheme (IAS), where the developer helps the buyer pay the interest on the housing loan while the property is under construction. Of course, such a scheme typically raises the sale price by 2 to 5 per cent, so there really is no free lunch.
Also, note that housing loan packages tied to the IAS generally charge higher interest rates. The difference can be 0.5 per cent or more. And because the IAS is offered by a single bank, taking it means losing the freedom to shop around for the best loan package. So you could forgo savings in interest of several thousand dollars.
Under the IAS, only the interest is paid while the principal outstanding is not reduced. Thus, when your property is completed, your housing loan outstanding will be higher than that of someone who has been making progressive payments.
Lastly, should the developer get into financial difficulties, the buyer is still liable to the bank for the interest on the housing loan.
Short loan tenor vs long loan tenor
Some people choose to pay off their housing loan as quickly as possible to save on interest payments. On the other hand, there are people who want to stretch the loan repayment period to the maximum so they have smaller monthly cash outflows.
Instead of going to either extreme, you could consider matching the loan tenor to your intended retirement age. For instance, if you're 40, you can take up a 20-year loan that will be paid off by the time you retire at 60.
Interest rate outlook
Sibor or the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate at which banks lend or borrow local dollars from one another in Singapore. The two main factors that affect Sibor are the United States Federal Reserve rate and liquidity, or availability of funds, in the local banking sector.
The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 0.25 per cent, a historical low. Sibor has stayed slightly below 0.7 per cent in the past six months and is likely to remain there as long as US interest rates are low and liquidity here is ample.
If you want certainty of interest rates for the next few years, then go for a fixed-rate housing loan, which can be as low as 1.5 per cent for the first year.
So what is the difference between Sibor and SOR? The latter stands for the Swap Offer Rate, which comprises the Singapore Interbank Offer Rate plus market reserve costs. It represents the average cost of funds used by banks in Singapore for commercial lending.
Swap also accounts for the exchange rate of the US$ vs S$. Thus, SOR tends to be more volatile than Sibor. If you want lower volatility, go for a loan pegged to Sibor rather than SOR.
Should you aim to be debt free as soon as possible?
Most personal finance books recommend that you should aim to be debt free as soon as possible. In my opinion, as long as you have not overborrowed, you can plan to pay off your housing loan by the time you retire.
If you think about it, a housing loan is the cheapest loan on the market. In Singapore, the interest rate on a housing loan is currently about 2 per cent, while a car loan is about 4 per cent, a renovation loan 7 per cent and a credit card 24 per cent!
So it is difficult for people to fail to beat housing loan interest rates. Why? Imagine that you know nothing about investing. Just putting money into endowment savings plans gives you annual returns of about 4 per cent over a 20-year period.
Say a person has a $200,000 housing loan to be repaid over 20 years. Assuming an interest rate of 4.5 per cent on the loan, the total interest paid over 20 years is only $105,515.
If he has $200,000 in cash or CPF savings and uses this money to earn a yield of 3.5 per cent, in 20 years, he would have earned $168,453!
Most people forget that interest on a housing loan is calculated on a reducing balance basis while savings compound (interest is added on interest).
Thus, you can get ahead financially if you focus on making your cash or CPF funds work harder for you than by trying to pay off your housing loan as soon as possible.
To get an unbiased view of the housing loan packages offered by banks, you can talk to an independent mortgage broker. After all, bank officers can only offer packages from the bank they work for.
Typically, the service offered by a mortgage broker is free as they are paid separately by the banks.
But before you join the rush, remember that buying a property is a long-term commitment. Make sure you can comfortably service your mortgage by capping your debt-service ratio at 35 per cent of your gross income. On top of that you should set aside enough funds to service at least six months of your housing loan instalments. This would provide some buffer should you suffer a pay cut or job loss.
Home buyers might also want to take note that supply of homes should be ample, going forward. Between 2009 and 2013, a total of 55,838 condo units are expected to be completed, according to numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The supply more than meets the average demand of about 8,000 units a year.
Some developers are offering an interest absorption scheme (IAS), where the developer helps the buyer pay the interest on the housing loan while the property is under construction. Of course, such a scheme typically raises the sale price by 2 to 5 per cent, so there really is no free lunch.
Also, note that housing loan packages tied to the IAS generally charge higher interest rates. The difference can be 0.5 per cent or more. And because the IAS is offered by a single bank, taking it means losing the freedom to shop around for the best loan package. So you could forgo savings in interest of several thousand dollars.
Under the IAS, only the interest is paid while the principal outstanding is not reduced. Thus, when your property is completed, your housing loan outstanding will be higher than that of someone who has been making progressive payments.
Lastly, should the developer get into financial difficulties, the buyer is still liable to the bank for the interest on the housing loan.
Short loan tenor vs long loan tenor
Some people choose to pay off their housing loan as quickly as possible to save on interest payments. On the other hand, there are people who want to stretch the loan repayment period to the maximum so they have smaller monthly cash outflows.
Instead of going to either extreme, you could consider matching the loan tenor to your intended retirement age. For instance, if you're 40, you can take up a 20-year loan that will be paid off by the time you retire at 60.
Interest rate outlook
Sibor or the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate at which banks lend or borrow local dollars from one another in Singapore. The two main factors that affect Sibor are the United States Federal Reserve rate and liquidity, or availability of funds, in the local banking sector.
The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 0.25 per cent, a historical low. Sibor has stayed slightly below 0.7 per cent in the past six months and is likely to remain there as long as US interest rates are low and liquidity here is ample.
If you want certainty of interest rates for the next few years, then go for a fixed-rate housing loan, which can be as low as 1.5 per cent for the first year.
So what is the difference between Sibor and SOR? The latter stands for the Swap Offer Rate, which comprises the Singapore Interbank Offer Rate plus market reserve costs. It represents the average cost of funds used by banks in Singapore for commercial lending.
Swap also accounts for the exchange rate of the US$ vs S$. Thus, SOR tends to be more volatile than Sibor. If you want lower volatility, go for a loan pegged to Sibor rather than SOR.
Should you aim to be debt free as soon as possible?
Most personal finance books recommend that you should aim to be debt free as soon as possible. In my opinion, as long as you have not overborrowed, you can plan to pay off your housing loan by the time you retire.
If you think about it, a housing loan is the cheapest loan on the market. In Singapore, the interest rate on a housing loan is currently about 2 per cent, while a car loan is about 4 per cent, a renovation loan 7 per cent and a credit card 24 per cent!
So it is difficult for people to fail to beat housing loan interest rates. Why? Imagine that you know nothing about investing. Just putting money into endowment savings plans gives you annual returns of about 4 per cent over a 20-year period.
Say a person has a $200,000 housing loan to be repaid over 20 years. Assuming an interest rate of 4.5 per cent on the loan, the total interest paid over 20 years is only $105,515.
If he has $200,000 in cash or CPF savings and uses this money to earn a yield of 3.5 per cent, in 20 years, he would have earned $168,453!
Most people forget that interest on a housing loan is calculated on a reducing balance basis while savings compound (interest is added on interest).
Thus, you can get ahead financially if you focus on making your cash or CPF funds work harder for you than by trying to pay off your housing loan as soon as possible.
To get an unbiased view of the housing loan packages offered by banks, you can talk to an independent mortgage broker. After all, bank officers can only offer packages from the bank they work for.
Typically, the service offered by a mortgage broker is free as they are paid separately by the banks.
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