I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future.
Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, or someone else can. A lot of them look to you to predict what the next macroeconomic cycle will be.
We rely on the fact that other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that’s where our profits come from.
I believe it’s that simple… when I was designing what turned out to be a trend following system…[that] approach–a mechanical and mathematical system–has not really changed at all.
Yet the system continues to be successful today, even though there has been virtually no change to it over the last 18 years.
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