Year of the castrated bull?

We read with despair that an ox is a castrated version of a bull. This perhaps reflects our view of a sustainable upside only from 2H09 onwards. For the first half of the year, investors should remain defensive in all countries, as we expect datapoints to continue limiting risk appetite and result in more downgrades. Once this is fully and comfortably priced in, we recommend to start switching to the cyclicals that are unfairly price to generate negative returns for an unrealistic period of time. As it stands, the risk-reward ratio looks attractive, with an 80% probability for an upside to valuations and 20% downside. A few more months and it could get even better - that is when outsized returns can be made in equities.