- When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.
- Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.
- Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything — all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure — these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.
The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it.
Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me ... Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful... that's what matters to me.
災難從來就無法預警，能預知而預警就不叫災難。
二○○八年金融海嘯是災難，發生後全球陷入資本主義中最怕的流動性障礙；二○一一年歐債風暴在預警中，雖心理恐慌形成投資市場殺戮，但市場沒有流動性障礙，這不叫災難，且全球政府已拚命串聯，惟放膽布局，自能穿越總體經濟數據的迷思，贏出財富。
二○一二年資金將氾濫，行情藏在資金面非基本面裡，我看好投資報酬，思考有三：
一、全球降息風開始蔓延：
美國聯準會領先宣布到二○一三年年中利率維持在○至○．二五％，接著澳洲、以色列也在一一年分別降息，尤其是巴西，今年連降兩次息，終引爆全球降息風。
歐盟央行將基本融通利率拉低到一．二五％，印尼於十一月十日將基準利率降息兩碼至六％，而中國在ＣＰＩ（消費者物價指數）下降到五．五％後，其最近一年期中央票券利率出現二年來第一次見到的下調利率動作，這很重要：中國正為二○一二年上半年降息做準備了！
二、台股籌碼清洗得很乾淨：
至二○一一年十月底止，台灣掛牌公司收庫藏股家數達三三○家，雖未超過○八年的五五○家，但以當時低點三九五五點，對比本波低點六八七七點，掛牌公司賣力收籌碼程度已超過○八年，再加上月成交量十月底更下降到一．五至一．八兆元區間的台股底部量，投資者只要做好財務控管，當下布局台股，從歷史軌跡看，勝率會很高。
三、從台灣掛牌公司獲利看：
二○○七年全球繁榮段，台灣掛牌公司獲利一．五兆元，○八年金融海嘯降到四千四百億元，緊接著○九年回升到八千三百億元，一○年增至一．五兆元，而今年一至九月歐債風暴下，獲利仍達七千八百億元，掛牌公司三年來累積了厚實獲利，看台股絕不能忽視這內容。
另從全球棋盤分析，歐盟、美國、中國，三方勢力主導棋盤變化，歐盟區的銀行結構調整陷入漫漫長路，中國面臨通膨、地方債、房地產、民間借貸四大困境調整，惟有美國從道瓊指數先站上年線，領先全球拉出二○一二年全球投資方向，最值得前瞻分析：
（一）ＩＢＭ、亞馬遜、蘋果在二○一一年分別開創歷史最高市價，很清晰點出全球在Patent（專利權擁有）及Cloud（雲端）兩方面的投資詮釋，台股將在連動這兩塊內容中的供應鏈公司拉出新仰攻族群。
（二）NIKE、麥當勞、好市多、星巴克四家公司也在二○一一年開創歷史最高市價，同樣點出美國「品牌價值」依然全球無敵，如NIKE讓中國民族運動品牌李寧崩落了，股價從每股三十二港幣下墜到七．四港幣，而星巴克咖啡更已在中國咖啡市場拿下了六○％市占率，連動美國大品牌公司供應鏈的台灣公司會是一二年台股非常重要的多頭力量。
（三）Autozone（美國最大汽車零件ＤＩＹ通路店）、Family Dollar（一美元商店）、Dollar Tree（一美元商店）也在二○一一年開創歷史最高市價，市場往強者大集中，意義非凡，它清晰點出二○％與八○％法則重現，回應到台股思考，「精英崛起」內容清楚，一二年台股投資，資金要集中在所有產業龍頭或前兩名內容裡，投資才有大勝率。
No comments:
Post a Comment