THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE WAY
1. Every person has cancer cells in the body.These cancer cells do not show up in the standard tests until they have multiplied to a few billion.
When doctors tell cancer patients that there are no more cancer cells in their bodies after treatment, it just means the tests are unable to detect the cancer cells because they have not reached the detectable size.
2. Cancer cells occur between 6 to more than 10 times in a person's lifetime.
3. When the person's immune system is strong the cancer cells will be destroyed and prevented from multiplying and forming tumors.
4. When a person has cancer it indicates the person has multiple nutritional deficiencies. These could be due to genetic, environmental, food and lifestyle factors.
5. To overcome the multiple nutritional deficiencies, changing diet and including supplements will strengthen the i?1/2immune system.
6. Chemotherapy involves poisoning the rapidly growing cancer cells and also destroys rapidly-growing healthy cells in the bone marrow, gastro-intestinal tract etc, and can cause organ damage, like liver, kidneys, heart, lungs etc.
7. Radiation while destroying cancer cells also burns, scars and damages healthy cells, tissues and organs.
8. Initial treatment with chemotherapy and radiation will often reduce tumor size. However prolonged use of chemotherapy and radiation do not result in more tumor destruction.
9. When the body has too much toxic burden from chemotherapy and radiation the immune system is either compromised or destroyed, hence the person can succumb to various kinds of infections and complications.
10. Chemotherapy and radiation can cause cancer cells to mutate and become resistant and difficult to destroy.
Surgery can also cause cancer cells to spread to other sites.
11. An effective way to battle cancer is to starve the cancer cells by not feeding it with the foods it needs to multiply.
CANCER CELLS FEED ON:
a.Sugar is a cancer-feeder.
By cutting off sugar it cuts off one important food supply to the cancer cells. Sugar substitutes like Nutrasweet, Equal, Spoonful, etc are made with Aspartame and it is harmful. A better natural substitute would be Manuka honey or molasses but only in very small amounts. Table salt has a chemical added to make it white in colour. Better alternative is Bragg's aminos or sea salt. (THE WEST MADE US 2 CHANGE FROM SEA 2 WHITE IODISED SALT)
b. Milk causes the body to produce mucus, especially in the gastro-intestinal tract. Cancer feeds on mucus.
By cutting off milk and substituting with unsweetened soya milk cancer cells are being starved.
c. Cancer cells thrive in an acid environment.
A meat-based diet is acidic and it is best to eat fish, and a little chicken rather than beef or pork. Meat also contains livestock antibiotics, growth hormones and parasites, which are all harmful,especially to people with cancer.
d. A diet made of 80% fresh vegetables and juice, whole grains, seeds, nuts and a little fruits help put the body into an alkaline environment.
About 20% can be from cooked food including beans. Fresh vegetable juices provide live enzymes that are easily absorbed and reach down to cellular levels within 15 minutes to nourish and enhance growth of healthy cells. To obtain live enzymes for 1/2 building healthy cells try and drink fresh vegetable juice (most vegetables including bean sprouts) and eat some raw vegetables 2 or 3 times a day.
Enzymes are destroyed at temperatures of 104 degrees F (40 degrees C).
e. Avoid coffee, tea, and chocolate, which have high caffeine.
Green tea is a better alternative and has cancer-fighting properties.
Water-best to drink purified water, or filtered, to avoid known toxins and heavy metals in tap water. Distilled water is acidic, avoid it.
12.Meat protein is difficult to digest and requires a lot of digestive enzymes. Undigested meat remaining in the intestines become putrified and leads to more toxic buildup.
13.Cancer cell walls have a tough protein covering. By refraining from or eating less meat it frees more enzymes to attack the protein walls of cancer cells and allows the body's killer cells to destroy the cancer cells.
14. Some supplements build up the immune system (IP6, Florssence,Essiac, anti-oxidants, vitamins,minerals, EFAs etc.) to enable the body's own killer cells to destroy cancer cells. Other supplements like vitamin E are known to cause apoptosis, or programmed cell death, the body's normal method of disposing of damaged, unwanted, or unneeded cells.
15. Cancer is a disease of the mind,body, and spirit. A proactive and positive spirit will help the cancer warrior be a survivor.
Anger, un forgiveness and bitterness put the body into a stressful and acidic environment. Learn to have a loving and forgiving spirit. Learn to relax and enjoy life.
16. Cancer cells cannot thrive in an oxygenated environment.
Exercising daily, and deep breathing help to get more oxygen down to the cellular
level. Oxygen therapy is another means employed to destroy cancer cells.
1. No plastic containers in micro.
2. No water bottles in freezer.
3. No plastic wrap in microwave.
Johns Hopkinshas recently sent this out in its newsletters. This information is being circulated at WalterReedArmyMedicalCenteras well. Dioxin chemicals causes cancer, especially breast cancer.
Dioxins are highly poisonous to the cells of our bodies. Don't freeze your plastic bottles with water in them as this releases dioxins from the plastic. Recently, Dr. Edward Fujimoto, Wellness Program Manager at CastleHospital was on a TV program to explain this health hazard.
He talked about dioxins and how bad they are for us. He said that we should not be heating our food in the microwave using plastic containers. This especially applies to foods that contain fat.
He said that the combination of fat, high heat, and plastics releases dioxin into the food and ultimately into the cells of the body.
Instead, he recommends using glass, such as Corning Ware, Pyrex or ceramic containers for heating food.
You get the same results, only without the dioxin. So such things as TV dinners, instant ramen and soups, etc., should be removed from the container and heated in something else. Paper isn't bad but you don't know what is in the paper. It's just safer to use tempered glass, CorningWare, etc. He reminded us that a while ago some of the fast food restaurants moved away from the foam containers to paper. The dioxin problem is one of the reasons.
Also, he pointed out that plastic wrap, such as Saran, is just as dangerous when placed over foods to be cooked in the microwave. As the food is nuked, the high heat causes poisonous toxins to actually melt out of the plastic wrap and drip into the food. Cover food with a paper towel instead.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Pittsburgh cancer center warns of cell phone risks
The head of a prominent cancer research institute issued an unprecedented warning to his faculty and staff Wednesday: Limit cell phone use because of the possible risk of cancer.
The warning from Dr. Ronald B. Herberman, director of the University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, is contrary to numerous studies that don't find a link between cancer and cell phone use, and a public lack of worry by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Herberman is basing his alarm on early unpublished data. He says it takes too long to get answers from science and he believes people should take action now — especially when it comes to children.
"Really at the heart of my concern is that we shouldn't wait for a definitive study to come out, but err on the side of being safe rather than sorry later," Herberman said.
No other major academic cancer research institutions have sounded such an alarm about cell phone use. But Herberman's advice is sure to raise concern among many cell phone users and especially parents.
In the memo he sent to about 3,000 faculty and staff Wednesday, he says children should use cell phones only for emergencies because their brains are still developing.
Adults should keep the phone away from the head and use the speakerphone or a wireless headset, he says. He even warns against using cell phones in public places like a bus because it exposes others to the phone's electromagnetic fields.
The issue that concerns some scientists — though nowhere near a consensus — is electromagnetic radiation, especially its possible effects on children. It is not a major topic in conferences of brain specialists.
A 2008 University of Utah analysis looked at nine studies — including some Herberman cites — with thousands of brain tumor patients and concludes "we found no overall increased risk of brain tumors among cellular phone users. The potential elevated risk of brain tumors after long-term cellular phone use awaits confirmation by future studies."
Studies last year in France and Norway concluded the same thing.
"If there is a risk from these products — and at this point we do not know that there is — it is probably very small," the Food and Drug Administration says on an agency Web site.
Still, Herberman cites a "growing body of literature linking long-term cell phone use to possible adverse health effects including cancer."
"Although the evidence is still controversial, I am convinced that there are sufficient data to warrant issuing an advisory to share some precautionary advice on cell phone use," he wrote in his memo.
A driving force behind the memo was Devra Lee Davis, the director of the university's center for environmental oncology.
"The question is do you want to play Russian roulette with your brain," she said in an interview from her cell phone while using the hands-free speaker phone as recommended. "I don't know that cell phones are dangerous. But I don't know that they are safe."
Of concern are the still unknown effects of more than a decade of cell phone use, with some studies raising alarms, said Davis, a former health adviser in the Clinton Administration.
She said 20 different groups have endorsed the advice the Pittsburgh cancer institute gave, and authorities in England, France and India have cautioned children's use of cell phones.
Herberman and Davis point to a massive ongoing research project known as Interphone, involving scientists in 13 nations, mostly in Europe. Results already published in peer-reviewed journals from this project aren't so alarming, but Herberman is citing work not yet published.
The published research focuses on more than 5,000 cases of brain tumors. The National Research Council in the U.S., which isn't participating in the Interphone project, reported in January that the brain tumor research had "selection bias." That means it relied on people with cancer to remember how often they used cell phones. It is not considered the most accurate research approach.
The largest published study, which appeared in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute in 2006, tracked 420,000 Danish cell phone users, including thousands that had used the phones for more than 10 years. It found no increased risk of cancer among those using cell phones.
A French study based on Interphone research and published in 2007 concluded that regular cell phone users had "no significant increased risk" for three major types of nervous system tumors. It did note, however, that there was "the possibility of an increased risk among the heaviest users" for one type of brain tumor, but that needs to be verified in future research.
Earlier research also has found no connection.
Joshua E. Muscat of Penn State University, who has studied cancer and cell phones in other research projects partly funded by the cell phone industry, said there are at least a dozen studies that have found no cancer-cell phone link. He said a Swedish study cited by Herberman as support for his warning was biased and flawed.
"We certainly don't know of any mechanism by which radiofrequency exposure would cause a cancerous effect in cells. We just don't know this might possibly occur," Muscat said.
Cell phones emit radiofrequency energy, a type of radiation that is a form of electromagnetic radiation, according to the National Cancer Institute. Though studies are being done to see if there is a link between it and tumors of the brain and central nervous system, there is no definitive link between the two, the institute says on its Web site.
"By all means, if a person feels compelled that they should take precautions in reducing the amount of electromagnetic radio waves through their bodies, by all means they should do so," said Dan Catena, a spokesman for the American Cancer Society. "But at the same time, we have to remember there's no conclusive evidence that links cell phones to cancer, whether it's brain tumors or other forms of cancer."
Joe Farren, a spokesman for the CTIA-The Wireless Association, a trade group for the wireless industry, said the group believes there is a risk of misinforming the public if science isn't used as the ultimate guide on the issue.
"When you look at the overwhelming majority of studies that have been peer reviewed and published in scientific journals around the world, you'll find no relationship between wireless usage and adverse health affects," Farren said.
Frank Barnes, who chaired the January report from the National Research Council, said Wednesday that "the jury is out" on how hazardous long-term cell phone use might be.
Speaking from his cell phone, the professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Colorado at Boulder said he takes no special precautions in his own phone use. And he offered no specific advice to people worried about the matter.
It's up to each individual to decide what if anything to do. If people use a cell phone instead of having a land line, "that may very well be reasonable for them," he said.
Susan Juffe, a 58-year-old Pittsburgh special education teacher, heard about Herberman's cell phone advice on the radio earlier in the day.
"Now, I'm worried. It's scary," she said.
She says she'll think twice about allowing her 10-year-old daughter Jayne to use the cell phone.
"I don't want to get it (brain cancer) and I certainly don't want you to get it," she explained to her daughter.
Sara Loughran, a 24-year-old doctoral student at the University of Pittsburgh, sat in a bus stop Wednesday chatting on her cell phone with her mother. She also had heard the news earlier in the day, but was not as concerned.
"I think if they gave me specific numbers and specific information and it was scary enough, I would be concerned," Loughran said, planning to call her mother again in a matter of minutes. "Without specific numbers, it's too vague to get me worked up."
The warning from Dr. Ronald B. Herberman, director of the University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, is contrary to numerous studies that don't find a link between cancer and cell phone use, and a public lack of worry by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Herberman is basing his alarm on early unpublished data. He says it takes too long to get answers from science and he believes people should take action now — especially when it comes to children.
"Really at the heart of my concern is that we shouldn't wait for a definitive study to come out, but err on the side of being safe rather than sorry later," Herberman said.
No other major academic cancer research institutions have sounded such an alarm about cell phone use. But Herberman's advice is sure to raise concern among many cell phone users and especially parents.
In the memo he sent to about 3,000 faculty and staff Wednesday, he says children should use cell phones only for emergencies because their brains are still developing.
Adults should keep the phone away from the head and use the speakerphone or a wireless headset, he says. He even warns against using cell phones in public places like a bus because it exposes others to the phone's electromagnetic fields.
The issue that concerns some scientists — though nowhere near a consensus — is electromagnetic radiation, especially its possible effects on children. It is not a major topic in conferences of brain specialists.
A 2008 University of Utah analysis looked at nine studies — including some Herberman cites — with thousands of brain tumor patients and concludes "we found no overall increased risk of brain tumors among cellular phone users. The potential elevated risk of brain tumors after long-term cellular phone use awaits confirmation by future studies."
Studies last year in France and Norway concluded the same thing.
"If there is a risk from these products — and at this point we do not know that there is — it is probably very small," the Food and Drug Administration says on an agency Web site.
Still, Herberman cites a "growing body of literature linking long-term cell phone use to possible adverse health effects including cancer."
"Although the evidence is still controversial, I am convinced that there are sufficient data to warrant issuing an advisory to share some precautionary advice on cell phone use," he wrote in his memo.
A driving force behind the memo was Devra Lee Davis, the director of the university's center for environmental oncology.
"The question is do you want to play Russian roulette with your brain," she said in an interview from her cell phone while using the hands-free speaker phone as recommended. "I don't know that cell phones are dangerous. But I don't know that they are safe."
Of concern are the still unknown effects of more than a decade of cell phone use, with some studies raising alarms, said Davis, a former health adviser in the Clinton Administration.
She said 20 different groups have endorsed the advice the Pittsburgh cancer institute gave, and authorities in England, France and India have cautioned children's use of cell phones.
Herberman and Davis point to a massive ongoing research project known as Interphone, involving scientists in 13 nations, mostly in Europe. Results already published in peer-reviewed journals from this project aren't so alarming, but Herberman is citing work not yet published.
The published research focuses on more than 5,000 cases of brain tumors. The National Research Council in the U.S., which isn't participating in the Interphone project, reported in January that the brain tumor research had "selection bias." That means it relied on people with cancer to remember how often they used cell phones. It is not considered the most accurate research approach.
The largest published study, which appeared in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute in 2006, tracked 420,000 Danish cell phone users, including thousands that had used the phones for more than 10 years. It found no increased risk of cancer among those using cell phones.
A French study based on Interphone research and published in 2007 concluded that regular cell phone users had "no significant increased risk" for three major types of nervous system tumors. It did note, however, that there was "the possibility of an increased risk among the heaviest users" for one type of brain tumor, but that needs to be verified in future research.
Earlier research also has found no connection.
Joshua E. Muscat of Penn State University, who has studied cancer and cell phones in other research projects partly funded by the cell phone industry, said there are at least a dozen studies that have found no cancer-cell phone link. He said a Swedish study cited by Herberman as support for his warning was biased and flawed.
"We certainly don't know of any mechanism by which radiofrequency exposure would cause a cancerous effect in cells. We just don't know this might possibly occur," Muscat said.
Cell phones emit radiofrequency energy, a type of radiation that is a form of electromagnetic radiation, according to the National Cancer Institute. Though studies are being done to see if there is a link between it and tumors of the brain and central nervous system, there is no definitive link between the two, the institute says on its Web site.
"By all means, if a person feels compelled that they should take precautions in reducing the amount of electromagnetic radio waves through their bodies, by all means they should do so," said Dan Catena, a spokesman for the American Cancer Society. "But at the same time, we have to remember there's no conclusive evidence that links cell phones to cancer, whether it's brain tumors or other forms of cancer."
Joe Farren, a spokesman for the CTIA-The Wireless Association, a trade group for the wireless industry, said the group believes there is a risk of misinforming the public if science isn't used as the ultimate guide on the issue.
"When you look at the overwhelming majority of studies that have been peer reviewed and published in scientific journals around the world, you'll find no relationship between wireless usage and adverse health affects," Farren said.
Frank Barnes, who chaired the January report from the National Research Council, said Wednesday that "the jury is out" on how hazardous long-term cell phone use might be.
Speaking from his cell phone, the professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Colorado at Boulder said he takes no special precautions in his own phone use. And he offered no specific advice to people worried about the matter.
It's up to each individual to decide what if anything to do. If people use a cell phone instead of having a land line, "that may very well be reasonable for them," he said.
Susan Juffe, a 58-year-old Pittsburgh special education teacher, heard about Herberman's cell phone advice on the radio earlier in the day.
"Now, I'm worried. It's scary," she said.
She says she'll think twice about allowing her 10-year-old daughter Jayne to use the cell phone.
"I don't want to get it (brain cancer) and I certainly don't want you to get it," she explained to her daughter.
Sara Loughran, a 24-year-old doctoral student at the University of Pittsburgh, sat in a bus stop Wednesday chatting on her cell phone with her mother. She also had heard the news earlier in the day, but was not as concerned.
"I think if they gave me specific numbers and specific information and it was scary enough, I would be concerned," Loughran said, planning to call her mother again in a matter of minutes. "Without specific numbers, it's too vague to get me worked up."
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Learn To Read Eyes And Discover What Women Are Thinking
Why do you think law enforcement trains their top detectives and interrogators in how to read eyes? That's right, because it works - better than lie detectors, even. The gift of reading female body language will help you a ton!
Your eyes are the window to your soul. You can't hide anything if someone you are around knows how to extract certain signs that your eyes involuntarily give off. If you want to read female body language properly, learn to read eyes .
So, we've established that when it comes to reading female body language the eyes are the most important, now what?
I'm going to give you some quick give-aways that will tip you off on whether or not a woman finds you attractive. These are well documented and proven signs and have worked wonders with my love life. After mastering these following techniques, I was never rejected again and learning these tips on how to read eyes gave me a lot of confidence in approaching women..
If you know how to use it properly, reading the eyes is just as reassuring as having a woman tell you that she has a crush on you.
Okay, I'm rambling. Time to get to business.
Here we go:
Suppose you're at a club, and a hot woman walks past you. What do you do? Well, if she has a pretty face and you're interested in what else she has, you look her up and down. No? If you don't believe you do you have to become more self aware because every woman is noticing.
That same can be reversed. Men are known as visual creatures. We base a lot of who we approach on what the woman looks like. Women are no different but their signals are. This is why you must learn how to read eyes and body language if you're looking to seduce them.
I have read a lot of literature about seduction and almost every one of them stress how visually unimpressed women are when it comes to men. This is a bald faced lie, even though it is not the determining factor in whether you get a hot chick or not.
Women do the vertical scan as often as men do, we just don't notice it. Why? The more I thought about it, the more I realized that we were too busy checking them out than looking to read eyes.
Next time you're at a social event, look at all the women's eyes, especially when you first arrive. If they look at your face and quickly turn away, sorry but they aren't interested in what else you have. This is when you pour on the seduction tips you've learned and distract her from all your shortcomings.
If she looks at your face and then quickly scans your body, you're in! The only thing you can do at this point is mess it up by using techniques that you learned from your buddies. See how learning how to read eyes and female body language could save you from a potentially embarrassing approach?
When a woman initially finds you attractive, she will give you a chance. A chance to prove that your looks are the least you could offer them.
Catching a woman check you it is easy to miss and sometimes deceiving. She could be looking down at your ugly shoes or your wrinkled pants. Who knows? What I can tell you is that 99% of the time, when she's scanning your body, she's impressed.
If you do, however, miss the vertical scan, don't worry. Women do something else when they are attracted to a guy that is just as telling. What I am talking about, of course, is the "look away."
Women have a tendency to look away immediately after you make eye contact with them if they like you. A lot of the time they'll look away and then turn their attention back to you - seeing if you're still watching.
It's very important at this stage to continue eye contact and give her a little smile telling her that you like her too. If she smiles back, BINGO! That is your cue and you best be hoping that the tips you've learned on the Internet to seduce her work.
Now, you've eliminated the uncertainty that you fear so much with tell tale signs that she is interested in you by knowing one tip on how to read eyes effectively, but is there anything else? Of course there is!
This following technique is one that no woman can escape. It is part of our physiology as humans and if read properly will give you the upper hand with the confidence and certainty you need to seduce her.
When a human sees something they find "attractive", their pupils will dilate. It's a very difficult science to understand, but let me break it down for you in simple terms. Our pupils will dilate as an unconscious response so that they can "take in" as much of what they're looking at. The more a girl's pupil's are dilated, the more chance they are really into you. When learning how to read eyes, this is probably the most difficult because there are various factors that contribute to dilation that you should be aware of.
There are some very important things to know before taking her humungous pupils as a sign of attraction. First, you must realize that when a woman is drunk or on drugs, her pupils will dilate. Since most social gatherings involve alcohol, the more likely the women you're talking to have had a couple of drinks. If this is the case, don't take the dilated pupils as a sign that she digs you. She's probably drunk...and that's not a bad thing at all! But if you read eyes wrong, this tip could find you in a lot of trouble.
Joseph Matthew's, creator of The Art of Approaching, concentrates a large part of his book on eye contact and reading female body language . It is the best part of his course and I know his teachings on the subject will help you as much as it helped me.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Look At Me, Damn It!
For a while now I've been wondering why some women always make eye contact and hold it longer than others, and in most cases, the women who fail to maintain eye contact are the best looking.
Each woman is unique, so their reasons for not maintaining eye contact could be any of a variety of things. However, after a lot of thought and research I've found out why these "dimes" or perfect 10's tend to make eye contact much less than other women, making it very difficult to read eyes.
Read on and be enlightened.
Like I said before... they do this for a variety of reasons, but a few shine through the rest. The majority of these babes will fail to maintain eye contact because: they are insecure, they are stuck up, or they lack social interaction. Let go into these three in detail...
You may be thinking to yourself "How the hell could a woman that looks that good be insecure?", and it's quite simple. You would be surprised how many really hot women are insecure, and they are because of the same reason you would think that they would not be... they know that they look good.
This puts a great deal of pressure on them, and very small flaws in their appearance that would barely bother an average person (pimples, bad hair days, broken nails, etc.) make them feel like it's the end of the world. This type of mentality constantly attacks their self confidence, which in turn makes them afraid to maintain eye contact in order to not draw any attention to these "flaws".
Now lets high-tail it over to the complete opposite of the drawing board and take a look at the infamous ice queens.
These women who are "stuck up" are that way for the same reason that the others are insecure... they know that they look good. The reason why they tend to go to one extreme or the other... remains a mystery. I'm not exactly sure why some turn out to be stuck up while other do not... let's just blame that on genetics :) However, I do know that these snobby women stay that way because of their daily dose of confidence "boosters", which come in the form of men staring at them or compliments that they receive on their looks.
The good news is that these women almost always drop the "ice queen" act if you get up the balls to approach them, as they will be very surprised that you did so, and that brings us to our last category of women because ALL of these women fit that bill also...
Almost all of these "stuck up" women lack social interaction, because they scare off most of the men who would approach them if they didn't think that they would be rejected. I'm not talking about social interaction in general, like simply talking to people, I'm saying that they are rarely "hit on" in the PROPER manner.
99% of the time that these women are hit on is by the only type of men that have the balls to do so, which are known as the "male pigs". These men will hang out the window of their car and shout something like "Woooohoooo, shake that ass baby!" or "Damn, your fine!". I don't fully understand why they do this... maybe they think that they are being cool? That's another unsolved mystery, let's just blame that on genetics also :)
These women only get hit on in a manner such as that, which makes them believe that *almost* all men are like that, and the truth is... they are right. That is the same reason why us players are some of the only guys who have the ability to date women like these, and on that note I would like to thank all of the "male pigs" out there for making my job so much easier :)
When you approach these women using the proper methods described in my book, they will be very happy that you did so because this rarely happens to them, and once you learn to play your cards right you will be able to pick them up with ease. I can show you not only how to read eyes, I can show you how to get them to look at you in the first place!
I'm not saying that you will be able to pick up every hot woman that you approach, or read eyes like an expert on all women, there are still some that think that they are too good for anyone who isn't a model with over 10 million in the bank... those women can have fun trying to find a man like that, I wish them good luck in their search. Just remember that things only happen when you make them happen, so suck it up and initiate the conversation, or it'll never take place.
Take my advice and soon you'll be picking up and dropping more dimes than the sprint lady! And you'll learn how to read eyes without looking like a creep.
Your eyes are the window to your soul. You can't hide anything if someone you are around knows how to extract certain signs that your eyes involuntarily give off. If you want to read female body language properly, learn to read eyes .
So, we've established that when it comes to reading female body language the eyes are the most important, now what?
I'm going to give you some quick give-aways that will tip you off on whether or not a woman finds you attractive. These are well documented and proven signs and have worked wonders with my love life. After mastering these following techniques, I was never rejected again and learning these tips on how to read eyes gave me a lot of confidence in approaching women..
If you know how to use it properly, reading the eyes is just as reassuring as having a woman tell you that she has a crush on you.
Okay, I'm rambling. Time to get to business.
Here we go:
Suppose you're at a club, and a hot woman walks past you. What do you do? Well, if she has a pretty face and you're interested in what else she has, you look her up and down. No? If you don't believe you do you have to become more self aware because every woman is noticing.
That same can be reversed. Men are known as visual creatures. We base a lot of who we approach on what the woman looks like. Women are no different but their signals are. This is why you must learn how to read eyes and body language if you're looking to seduce them.
I have read a lot of literature about seduction and almost every one of them stress how visually unimpressed women are when it comes to men. This is a bald faced lie, even though it is not the determining factor in whether you get a hot chick or not.
Women do the vertical scan as often as men do, we just don't notice it. Why? The more I thought about it, the more I realized that we were too busy checking them out than looking to read eyes.
Next time you're at a social event, look at all the women's eyes, especially when you first arrive. If they look at your face and quickly turn away, sorry but they aren't interested in what else you have. This is when you pour on the seduction tips you've learned and distract her from all your shortcomings.
If she looks at your face and then quickly scans your body, you're in! The only thing you can do at this point is mess it up by using techniques that you learned from your buddies. See how learning how to read eyes and female body language could save you from a potentially embarrassing approach?
When a woman initially finds you attractive, she will give you a chance. A chance to prove that your looks are the least you could offer them.
Catching a woman check you it is easy to miss and sometimes deceiving. She could be looking down at your ugly shoes or your wrinkled pants. Who knows? What I can tell you is that 99% of the time, when she's scanning your body, she's impressed.
If you do, however, miss the vertical scan, don't worry. Women do something else when they are attracted to a guy that is just as telling. What I am talking about, of course, is the "look away."
Women have a tendency to look away immediately after you make eye contact with them if they like you. A lot of the time they'll look away and then turn their attention back to you - seeing if you're still watching.
It's very important at this stage to continue eye contact and give her a little smile telling her that you like her too. If she smiles back, BINGO! That is your cue and you best be hoping that the tips you've learned on the Internet to seduce her work.
Now, you've eliminated the uncertainty that you fear so much with tell tale signs that she is interested in you by knowing one tip on how to read eyes effectively, but is there anything else? Of course there is!
This following technique is one that no woman can escape. It is part of our physiology as humans and if read properly will give you the upper hand with the confidence and certainty you need to seduce her.
When a human sees something they find "attractive", their pupils will dilate. It's a very difficult science to understand, but let me break it down for you in simple terms. Our pupils will dilate as an unconscious response so that they can "take in" as much of what they're looking at. The more a girl's pupil's are dilated, the more chance they are really into you. When learning how to read eyes, this is probably the most difficult because there are various factors that contribute to dilation that you should be aware of.
There are some very important things to know before taking her humungous pupils as a sign of attraction. First, you must realize that when a woman is drunk or on drugs, her pupils will dilate. Since most social gatherings involve alcohol, the more likely the women you're talking to have had a couple of drinks. If this is the case, don't take the dilated pupils as a sign that she digs you. She's probably drunk...and that's not a bad thing at all! But if you read eyes wrong, this tip could find you in a lot of trouble.
Joseph Matthew's, creator of The Art of Approaching, concentrates a large part of his book on eye contact and reading female body language . It is the best part of his course and I know his teachings on the subject will help you as much as it helped me.
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Look At Me, Damn It!
For a while now I've been wondering why some women always make eye contact and hold it longer than others, and in most cases, the women who fail to maintain eye contact are the best looking.
Each woman is unique, so their reasons for not maintaining eye contact could be any of a variety of things. However, after a lot of thought and research I've found out why these "dimes" or perfect 10's tend to make eye contact much less than other women, making it very difficult to read eyes.
Read on and be enlightened.
Like I said before... they do this for a variety of reasons, but a few shine through the rest. The majority of these babes will fail to maintain eye contact because: they are insecure, they are stuck up, or they lack social interaction. Let go into these three in detail...
You may be thinking to yourself "How the hell could a woman that looks that good be insecure?", and it's quite simple. You would be surprised how many really hot women are insecure, and they are because of the same reason you would think that they would not be... they know that they look good.
This puts a great deal of pressure on them, and very small flaws in their appearance that would barely bother an average person (pimples, bad hair days, broken nails, etc.) make them feel like it's the end of the world. This type of mentality constantly attacks their self confidence, which in turn makes them afraid to maintain eye contact in order to not draw any attention to these "flaws".
Now lets high-tail it over to the complete opposite of the drawing board and take a look at the infamous ice queens.
These women who are "stuck up" are that way for the same reason that the others are insecure... they know that they look good. The reason why they tend to go to one extreme or the other... remains a mystery. I'm not exactly sure why some turn out to be stuck up while other do not... let's just blame that on genetics :) However, I do know that these snobby women stay that way because of their daily dose of confidence "boosters", which come in the form of men staring at them or compliments that they receive on their looks.
The good news is that these women almost always drop the "ice queen" act if you get up the balls to approach them, as they will be very surprised that you did so, and that brings us to our last category of women because ALL of these women fit that bill also...
Almost all of these "stuck up" women lack social interaction, because they scare off most of the men who would approach them if they didn't think that they would be rejected. I'm not talking about social interaction in general, like simply talking to people, I'm saying that they are rarely "hit on" in the PROPER manner.
99% of the time that these women are hit on is by the only type of men that have the balls to do so, which are known as the "male pigs". These men will hang out the window of their car and shout something like "Woooohoooo, shake that ass baby!" or "Damn, your fine!". I don't fully understand why they do this... maybe they think that they are being cool? That's another unsolved mystery, let's just blame that on genetics also :)
These women only get hit on in a manner such as that, which makes them believe that *almost* all men are like that, and the truth is... they are right. That is the same reason why us players are some of the only guys who have the ability to date women like these, and on that note I would like to thank all of the "male pigs" out there for making my job so much easier :)
When you approach these women using the proper methods described in my book, they will be very happy that you did so because this rarely happens to them, and once you learn to play your cards right you will be able to pick them up with ease. I can show you not only how to read eyes, I can show you how to get them to look at you in the first place!
I'm not saying that you will be able to pick up every hot woman that you approach, or read eyes like an expert on all women, there are still some that think that they are too good for anyone who isn't a model with over 10 million in the bank... those women can have fun trying to find a man like that, I wish them good luck in their search. Just remember that things only happen when you make them happen, so suck it up and initiate the conversation, or it'll never take place.
Take my advice and soon you'll be picking up and dropping more dimes than the sprint lady! And you'll learn how to read eyes without looking like a creep.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Top Ten (10) Cities Of The World With The Most Beautiful Women
We have researched the opinions of world travelers as well as the internet community in bringing you the Top Ten Cities of the World With The Most Beautiful Women. Each city on this list contains a copious supply of beautiful women you may want to urge your parents or your wife to visit for the next family vacation, just for the scenery of course. All cities throughout the world were considered and determinative factors included: 1) Quality of women, 2) Amount of Women per men ratio and 3) Ease of talking to women. Please enjoy the list and we look forward to your comments.
10. Amsterdam, Holland
Of course Amsterdam must make the list. This city has women more beautiful riding past on bicycles than other cities have going by in chauffeured cars. Dutch girls are amazing in so many ways, they're trendy, as well as cool, they're fun, and they are exceptionally beautiful. They're the kind of girls that you just want to date for a very long time.
9. Tel Aviv, Israel
Israel has some of the best looking women in the world. Perhaps it is something about those green eyes that are just particularly attractive. It should be noted that in Israel women over the age of 18 are required to have been in the military, this of course means that if you hook up with an Israeli girl's best friend, she may very well kick your ass, while equipped with an Uzi. Sure it's a longshot, but it could happen.
8. Montreal, Canada
The exquisite taste of France but with the convenient location of Canada, Montreal is truly one of the world's best cities filled with beautiful women. So many universities and colleges and so many women with fashion sense and a desire to take care of their bodies. One of the best parts is that the women all speak French commonly known as the language of love. I highly recommend you take a trip to Montreal, and find a beautiful leather trench coat wearing beauty that will serenade you in French all night long.
7. Caracas, Venezuela
Caracas is the capital of Venezuela. For the record, Venezuela is the country with more Miss Universe Pageant titles than any other nation, therefore you know it's capital is going to be teeming full of beautiful women. The women of Caracas are so beautiful that they make Brazilian women look like trashier counterparts. I speak honestly when I tell you that these women are exceptionally easy to talk to you and know how to have a great time. I can also attest to the amount of fun you will have when you take a trip to Venezuela.
6. Moscow , Russia
Learn How Easy Sex And Love Is With Russian Women Here!
Mother Russia is home to some of the world's finest women, the Moscow subway alone has more beauties than most of the United States alone. It's not only the regularity of tall, blonde hair, blue eyed women that make it so great, it's also the amazing level of friendliness that you will find. It's a definite unique experience when what seems like the world's most beautiful woman is staring your way only to find that she is staring your way, and yes at you! Then she approaches you! Sure the first time, you will mess up, but don't worry there will be many more on your trip!
Learn The Truth About Russian Women and How To Easily Get Russian Women Here!
5. Los Angeles, California
How much can be said about L.A. girls, well I think you will find upon arrival that so much can be said you'll find yourself at a lack of words. The women of L.A. are on a level unlike most any other kind you may have ever seen. All the beautiful people from across the United States flock to this mecca, this is where the cool people come to live, to work, & to try to "make it". This is what the Beach Boys had in mind when they sang the song California Dreamin'.
Learn How To Earn $1000 Per Week Photographing Beautiful Women In Your Area Here!
4. Varna, Bulgaria
Many of you may not have heard of Bulgaria, most of you may not know where to find Bulgaria on a map, but you have all experienced Bulgaria in day dreams, night dreams or just drifting off at work. Bulgaria is a land of no drug laws, cheap vodka, mechanical bulls on the beach, waterslide and some of the most uninhibited natural beauties in the world. This land has cafes with inflatable furniture, thongs and g-strings everywhere you turn your head, see through pants on every corner and topless sunbathing on every beach. What's more, these women retain a certain level of class and sophistication and take great care of their bodies. The most important part of Bulgaria is the charm and beauty that you will find in these stunning women. Plan your trip today!
3. Buenos Aires, Argentina
Buenos Aires is a city unlike any other. It is truly one of the most extraordinary cities in the Western Hemisphere. The city has an enormous wealth of beautiful women on a scale unlike nearly any other city. The women of Buenos Aires are beautiful, natural women who are comfortable in their amazing bodies. Nearly every women in Buenos Aires is a model waiting to be found, by you of course! The parties are legendary and the clubs and events are overloaded with beautiful, approachable, and fun women.
2. Copenhagen, Denmark
Copenhagen's women are probably some of the most approachable you will ever meet. Also, these women are much more liberated sexually than most other cities throughout the world. They are all over, working in all places and always ready to head to the local bar for a drink or two. The environment runs at a much slower pace and the women enjoy a wide variety of situations. In Copenhagen, during your trip, you will find yourself catching the eye of several women. Just remain cool, calm and collective and this will be a phenomenal trip.
1. Stockholm, Sweden
It seems like every woman in Stockholm is amazingly beautiful. You walk into 7-11 and the girl behind the counter easily would be an American model or Playboy Playmate. However this isn't just with 7-11, it's everywhere. Also, these women know how to party and enjoy each other. Per capita the women of Stockholm were the most beautiful. These women were also extremely educated and friendly. All of the women spoke English with English accents therefore there is no communication barrier. These women make you feel good in every way. Sweden is a must visit on a future vacation!
10. Amsterdam, Holland
Of course Amsterdam must make the list. This city has women more beautiful riding past on bicycles than other cities have going by in chauffeured cars. Dutch girls are amazing in so many ways, they're trendy, as well as cool, they're fun, and they are exceptionally beautiful. They're the kind of girls that you just want to date for a very long time.
9. Tel Aviv, Israel
Israel has some of the best looking women in the world. Perhaps it is something about those green eyes that are just particularly attractive. It should be noted that in Israel women over the age of 18 are required to have been in the military, this of course means that if you hook up with an Israeli girl's best friend, she may very well kick your ass, while equipped with an Uzi. Sure it's a longshot, but it could happen.
8. Montreal, Canada
The exquisite taste of France but with the convenient location of Canada, Montreal is truly one of the world's best cities filled with beautiful women. So many universities and colleges and so many women with fashion sense and a desire to take care of their bodies. One of the best parts is that the women all speak French commonly known as the language of love. I highly recommend you take a trip to Montreal, and find a beautiful leather trench coat wearing beauty that will serenade you in French all night long.
7. Caracas, Venezuela
Caracas is the capital of Venezuela. For the record, Venezuela is the country with more Miss Universe Pageant titles than any other nation, therefore you know it's capital is going to be teeming full of beautiful women. The women of Caracas are so beautiful that they make Brazilian women look like trashier counterparts. I speak honestly when I tell you that these women are exceptionally easy to talk to you and know how to have a great time. I can also attest to the amount of fun you will have when you take a trip to Venezuela.
6. Moscow , Russia
Learn How Easy Sex And Love Is With Russian Women Here!
Mother Russia is home to some of the world's finest women, the Moscow subway alone has more beauties than most of the United States alone. It's not only the regularity of tall, blonde hair, blue eyed women that make it so great, it's also the amazing level of friendliness that you will find. It's a definite unique experience when what seems like the world's most beautiful woman is staring your way only to find that she is staring your way, and yes at you! Then she approaches you! Sure the first time, you will mess up, but don't worry there will be many more on your trip!
Learn The Truth About Russian Women and How To Easily Get Russian Women Here!
5. Los Angeles, California
How much can be said about L.A. girls, well I think you will find upon arrival that so much can be said you'll find yourself at a lack of words. The women of L.A. are on a level unlike most any other kind you may have ever seen. All the beautiful people from across the United States flock to this mecca, this is where the cool people come to live, to work, & to try to "make it". This is what the Beach Boys had in mind when they sang the song California Dreamin'.
Learn How To Earn $1000 Per Week Photographing Beautiful Women In Your Area Here!
4. Varna, Bulgaria
Many of you may not have heard of Bulgaria, most of you may not know where to find Bulgaria on a map, but you have all experienced Bulgaria in day dreams, night dreams or just drifting off at work. Bulgaria is a land of no drug laws, cheap vodka, mechanical bulls on the beach, waterslide and some of the most uninhibited natural beauties in the world. This land has cafes with inflatable furniture, thongs and g-strings everywhere you turn your head, see through pants on every corner and topless sunbathing on every beach. What's more, these women retain a certain level of class and sophistication and take great care of their bodies. The most important part of Bulgaria is the charm and beauty that you will find in these stunning women. Plan your trip today!
3. Buenos Aires, Argentina
Buenos Aires is a city unlike any other. It is truly one of the most extraordinary cities in the Western Hemisphere. The city has an enormous wealth of beautiful women on a scale unlike nearly any other city. The women of Buenos Aires are beautiful, natural women who are comfortable in their amazing bodies. Nearly every women in Buenos Aires is a model waiting to be found, by you of course! The parties are legendary and the clubs and events are overloaded with beautiful, approachable, and fun women.
2. Copenhagen, Denmark
Copenhagen's women are probably some of the most approachable you will ever meet. Also, these women are much more liberated sexually than most other cities throughout the world. They are all over, working in all places and always ready to head to the local bar for a drink or two. The environment runs at a much slower pace and the women enjoy a wide variety of situations. In Copenhagen, during your trip, you will find yourself catching the eye of several women. Just remain cool, calm and collective and this will be a phenomenal trip.
1. Stockholm, Sweden
It seems like every woman in Stockholm is amazingly beautiful. You walk into 7-11 and the girl behind the counter easily would be an American model or Playboy Playmate. However this isn't just with 7-11, it's everywhere. Also, these women know how to party and enjoy each other. Per capita the women of Stockholm were the most beautiful. These women were also extremely educated and friendly. All of the women spoke English with English accents therefore there is no communication barrier. These women make you feel good in every way. Sweden is a must visit on a future vacation!
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Study finds Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand face high risk from arsenic contamination
MYANMAR'S cyclone-devastated Irrawaddy delta and Indonesia's Sumatra island face high risks of arsenic contamination in groundwater that could cause cancer and other diseases in residents, according to a new study.
Using a digitalised model that examines geological features and soil chemistry in South-east Asia, researchers writing in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience mapped several likely hot spots that had never been assessed for arsenic risks.
'Obviously, there is concern,' said Dr Michael Berg, one of the five authors, who is a senior scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in Dubendor, Switzerland. 'If you look at our data, there is risk of arsenic in the ground water.'
Arsenic, especially in drinking water, is a global threat to health, affecting more than 70 countries and 137 million people. The country worst affected is Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of dying from cancers of the lung, bladder and skin.
Odourless and tasteless, arsenic enters water supplies from natural deposits in the ground or from agricultural and industrial practices. Arsenic is poisonous when consumed in high doses, but even smaller amounts can cause cancer, skin problems and abnormal heart rhythms.
Dr Berg and the other authors determined a high risk of arsenic contamination exceeding World Health Organisation guidelines in Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta, a low-lying area hit by a May cyclone that killed at least 84,537 people.
Their models also found that 100,000 square kilometres) of Sumatra's east coast was at risk as well as the Chao Phraya river basin in central Thailand - although the dangers in the Chao Phraya were lower because residents in the area tap deeper aquifers.
Researchers said regions with organic-rich sediment containing silt and clay have a higher likelihood of arsenic contamination.
'These are very young sediments. Only in young formation do we find that arsenic can be released from the sediment,' Dr Berg said on Friday, adding that arsenic in soil that is much older has been mostly washed away.
Dr Berg said he hopes the maps they developed could serve as 'a red flag' for authorities to take precautions before building wells or other water facilities in areas deemed at high risk of arsenic contamination.
Until now, testing for arsenic has been rare in many regions because it is costly and time consuming, he said.
'Maps pinpointing areas vulnerable to arsenic contamination can guide households at risk of arsenic contamination, as well as scientists and policy makers to initiate early mitigation measures and protect populations from chronic arsenic poisoning,' the authors wrote.
Dr Lex van Geen, a geochemist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who has studied arsenic contamination in Bangladesh and did not participate in the study, said it should be lauded for drawing attention to areas where little research has been done on the arsenic threat, such as Myanmar. But he said the digital models do not identify areas well below the surface where water quality is good.
'Using the mapping based on surface geology will identify settings where arsenic could be high in shallow groundwater', Dr van Geen said. 'What it can't tell you is how deep you might have to go to reach the low arsenic water, which is really what matters from a mitigation point of view.'
Using a digitalised model that examines geological features and soil chemistry in South-east Asia, researchers writing in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience mapped several likely hot spots that had never been assessed for arsenic risks.
'Obviously, there is concern,' said Dr Michael Berg, one of the five authors, who is a senior scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology in Dubendor, Switzerland. 'If you look at our data, there is risk of arsenic in the ground water.'
Arsenic, especially in drinking water, is a global threat to health, affecting more than 70 countries and 137 million people. The country worst affected is Bangladesh, where hundreds of thousands of people are in danger of dying from cancers of the lung, bladder and skin.
Odourless and tasteless, arsenic enters water supplies from natural deposits in the ground or from agricultural and industrial practices. Arsenic is poisonous when consumed in high doses, but even smaller amounts can cause cancer, skin problems and abnormal heart rhythms.
Dr Berg and the other authors determined a high risk of arsenic contamination exceeding World Health Organisation guidelines in Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta, a low-lying area hit by a May cyclone that killed at least 84,537 people.
Their models also found that 100,000 square kilometres) of Sumatra's east coast was at risk as well as the Chao Phraya river basin in central Thailand - although the dangers in the Chao Phraya were lower because residents in the area tap deeper aquifers.
Researchers said regions with organic-rich sediment containing silt and clay have a higher likelihood of arsenic contamination.
'These are very young sediments. Only in young formation do we find that arsenic can be released from the sediment,' Dr Berg said on Friday, adding that arsenic in soil that is much older has been mostly washed away.
Dr Berg said he hopes the maps they developed could serve as 'a red flag' for authorities to take precautions before building wells or other water facilities in areas deemed at high risk of arsenic contamination.
Until now, testing for arsenic has been rare in many regions because it is costly and time consuming, he said.
'Maps pinpointing areas vulnerable to arsenic contamination can guide households at risk of arsenic contamination, as well as scientists and policy makers to initiate early mitigation measures and protect populations from chronic arsenic poisoning,' the authors wrote.
Dr Lex van Geen, a geochemist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who has studied arsenic contamination in Bangladesh and did not participate in the study, said it should be lauded for drawing attention to areas where little research has been done on the arsenic threat, such as Myanmar. But he said the digital models do not identify areas well below the surface where water quality is good.
'Using the mapping based on surface geology will identify settings where arsenic could be high in shallow groundwater', Dr van Geen said. 'What it can't tell you is how deep you might have to go to reach the low arsenic water, which is really what matters from a mitigation point of view.'
Sunday, July 6, 2008
关于喝水的17个骇人真相
1、自来水
有人习惯早晨起来打开水龙头，接一杯自来水来喝，这是不对的。停用一夜的水龙头及水管中的自来水是静止的，这些水及金属管壁及水龙头金属腔室会产生水化反应，形成金属污染水，并且自来水中残留微生物也会繁殖起来，这种水含有大量对人体有害的物质，还可能藏着威胁人类健康的一种急性呼吸道传染病菌—军团菌。
因此，清晨拧开水龙头，最初流出的自来水是不可饮用的死水，所以有这种习惯的人请马上纠正，以免损害自己的健康。
2、久置的开水
开水久置以后，其中含氮的有机物会不断被分解成亚硝酸盐。尤其是存放过久的开水，难免有细菌污染，此时含氮有机物分解加速，亚硝酸盐的生成也就更多。饮用这样的水后亚硝酸盐与血红蛋白结合，会影响血液的运氧功能。
所以，在暖瓶里多日的开水多次煮沸的残留水、放在炉灶上沸腾很久的水，其成分都已经发生变化而不能饮用了。应该喝一次烧开、不超过24小时的水。
此外，瓶装、桶装的各种纯净水、矿泉水也不宜存放过久。大瓶的或桶装的纯净水、矿泉水超过3天就不应该喝了。
3、盐水
有人认为喝淡盐水有益于身体健康，于是晨起喝淡盐水，这种认识确是错误的。喝淡盐水有利于健康不假，这对于夏天出汗后补充水分是必要的，可对于晨起补充水分来说非但无益，还是一个危害健康的错误做法。
生理学的研究认为，人在整夜睡眠中未饮滴水，然而呼吸、排汗、泌尿却在进行中，这些生理活动要消耗损失许多水分。早晨起床时，血液已成浓缩状态此时如饮一定量的白开水可很快使血液得到稀释，纠正夜间的高渗性脱水。再喝盐开水反而会加重高渗性脱水，令人备加口干。何况，早晨是人体血压升高的第一个高峰，喝盐开水会使血压更高，危害健康。
4、饮料
早上起来的第一杯水最好不要喝市售的果汁、可乐、汽水、咖啡、牛奶等饮料。汽水和可乐等碳酸饮料中大都含有柠檬酸，在代谢过程中会加速钙的排泄，降低血液中钙的含量，长期饮用会导致缺钙。而另一些饮料有利于排尿作用，清晨饮用非但不能有效补充机体缺少的水分，还会增加集体对水分的要求，反而造成体内缺水。
果汁、牛奶、咖啡也不宜作为清晨的第一杯饮料，因为这些物质并不能提供此时机体最需要的水分，还会使机体在缺水的状态下就让胃肠进行消化和吸收工作，不利于身体的健康。
所以大家要为了自己的健康切记以上四种水是清晨起床不可以喝的。
如今，重视喝水的人，越来越多了；但真正会喝的人，却为数不多。不挑时间地喝、不计较内容地喝、不动脑筋地喝……都只能证明你只是喝水，却不一定是喝对了水。在这个爱惜身体成为一种流行的年代，曾经被认为最简单的喝水，也不得不成了一门高深的学问。
5、餐前补水最养胃
吃饭前还要补水吗？那不是会冲淡胃液影响消化吗？西餐有餐前开胃的步骤，其道理在于利用汤菜来调动食欲，润滑食道，为进餐做好准备。那么，饭前补水也就有着同样的意义，进固体食物前，先小饮半杯(约100毫升)，可以是室温的果汁、酸奶，也可以是温热的冰糖菊花水或淡淡的茶水，或者是一小碗浓浓的开胃汤，都是很好的养胃之法。
6、多喝看不见的水
有的人看上去一天到晚都不喝水，那是因为由食物中摄取的水分已经足够应付所需。食物也含水，比如米饭，其中含水量达到60%，而粥呢，就更是含水丰富了。翻开食物成分表不难看出，蔬菜水果的含水量一般超过70%，即便一天只吃500克果蔬，也能获得300~400毫升水分(有两怀呦)。加之日常饮食讲究的就是干稀搭配，所以从三餐食物中获得1500~2000毫升的水分并不困难。不如充分利用三餐进食的机会来补水吧，多选果蔬和不咸的汤粥，补水效果都不错。
7、记住利水食物
所谓利水食物是指能增加身体水分排泄的食物，如西瓜、咖啡、茶等含有利尿成分，能促进肾脏尿液的形成；还有粗粮、蔬菜水果等含有膳食纤维，能在肠道结合大量水分，增加粪便的重量；辛辣刺激的成分能促进体表毛细血管的舒张，让人大汗淋漓、体表水分流失。 补也好、利也好，都是达到身体水分平衡的手段。
8、畅饮与美容无关
身体缺少水分，皮肤看上去会干燥没有光泽；饮水过少还容易发生便干，甚至便秘，皮肤很容易生小痘痘。虽说如此，单单靠补充水分对肤质和肤色的影响毕竟有限，不过现在很多添加维生素的饮料打出了美容牌，比如一种含乳饮料里面含有维生素B6，其产品声称“能令皮肤润滑细嫩”，而现在含有这种“美容维生素”的饮料还真不少。正统的营养学专著中并没有提到它的美容作用，好在摄入多些一没有危险，二还可以预防冠心病的发生，也算有益无害吧。
9、水里的“杀机”
经过煮沸的自来水可能含有具有致癌性的高氯化合物，如经较长时间放置(隔夜)水质会发生老化。
现在各种家用水处理机也纷纷登场，类似曾风靡一时的矿泉壶，这样的设备存在后续维护的问题，就如同饮水机，可能成为饮用水二次污染的源头。
10、喝运动饮料的学问
剧烈运动前后不能补白水，也不能补高浓度的果汁，而应补运动饮料。运动饮料中应该含有少量糖分、钠盐、钾、镁、钙和多种水溶性维生素，以补充运动中身体所失及所需。饮白水会造成血液稀释，排汗量剧增，进一步加重脱水。果汁中过高的糖浓度使果汁由胃排空的时间延长，造成运动中胃部不适。运动饮料中特殊设计的无机盐和糖的浓度会避免这些不良反应。运动饮料的温度也讲究，过高不利于降低体温散热，过凉会造成胃肠道痉挛，一般应口感清凉，温度在10左右。
11、警惕酸味饮料
各种果汁饮料多采用柠檬酸作味剂，柠檬酸食用过多，大量的有机酸骤然进入人体，当摄入量超过机体对酸的处理能力时，就会使体内的PH值不平衡，导致酸血症的产生，使人疲乏，困倦。特别是在盛夏，由于天气炎热，出汗较多，人体会损失大量的电解质，如钾、钠、氯等碱性成分，大量的酸味饮料更容易令体液呈酸性。因此，在夏季不宜过多饮用添加有机酸的酸味饮料。
12、甜饮料的陷阱
如果口渴的时候首先想到的是饮料，可是相当危险的。可乐、雪碧、芬达的含糖量是11%，超过了西瓜、苹果、柑橘等很多种水果，一听350毫升的可乐所含的能量等同于一片面包、一个玉米或250克水果。各种果汁的含糖量与此相当，甚至还要更高于它。脉动、她/他、激活等看上去像水的维生素饮料也含有3%的糖分，如果喝上一大瓶(600毫升吧)，对体重的影响相当可观。也的确听说过有人因为暴饮甜饮料而罹患糖尿病的不幸遭遇呢。
13、淡盐水的坏处
淡盐水是指相当于生理浓度的盐水，每百毫升中含 1克左右的盐分，它在日常生活中有几种用途：一、大汗之后补充身体丢失的水分和钠；二、腹泻之后补充由肠道丢失的水分和盐，维持电解质的平衡；三、淡盐水漱口能清除口腔内的细菌，减轻口咽部炎症造成的红肿。 但是，淡盐水不适合心脏功能不好，有高血压的人饮用，特别是在早晨，当血液粘稠度最高时，饮用淡盐水会加重口干，促进血压升高。
14、识破“花样”水
纯净水，经多重过滤去除了各种微生物、杂质和有益的矿物质，突出的是饮用的安全性，它是一种软水，许多人认为它不够营养，长期饮用不利健康，可是这种观点未被证实。
矿泉水，是种自然资源，由地层深处开采出来，含有丰富的稀有矿物质，略呈碱性，应该更有利于健康，但是不排除有机物污染的可能。
矿物质水，在纯净水中按照人体浓度比例添加矿物质浓缩液配制而成的人工矿泉水，标志着饮用水科技的新高度。
15、爱运动更要会补水
运动补水要掌握以下原则：
a.不能渴时才补。因为感到口渴时，丢失的水分已达体重的2% 。
b.运动前、中、后都要补水。运动前2小时补250—500毫升；运动前即刻补150—250毫升；运动中每15~20分钟补120—240毫升；运动后按运动中体重的丢失量，体重每下降1千克需补1升。
16、勤补水不明智
身体处于稳定状态的时候，每天正常补水1000~2000亳升，让小便保持清亮充沛就可以了。但是如果自觉或不自觉地大量饮水，这其中就有问题了。首先，说明你的身体可能处于脱水状态，身处高温环境，大量排汗或大量进食盐分都可能千百万这种情况，那么补水是必要的；其次，如果存在高血糖、垂体或肾脏功能异常的情况；或者处于感昌、发烧等感染性疾病中；又或者有泌尿系统炎症，甚至是一名高尿酸血症患者，那也可以主动大量饮水。而一个健康人在不感觉口渴的情况下饮水超过2000毫升/天就实在没有必要了，那只不过是一再考验自身的肾脏功能罢了。
17、维生素C饮料多喝无益
新上市的饮料中很多都含有维生素C，维生素C的益处自不必说，为了预防缺乏，每天人体需要补充60~100毫克。“酷儿”的维生素C含量为3~30毫克/100毫升，“脉动”为25~50毫克/100毫升，“她”是15毫克/100毫升，也就是说，饮用此类饮料一瓶获得的维生素C就能满足每天的需要量。那么，如果你饮用2瓶、3瓶，甚至更多呢？会不会发生维生素C中毒的情况呢？好在维生素C的安全范围广，但是千万不要以为它是多多益善的，过量摄入能引起泌尿系统结石，渗透性腹泻以及大剂量维生素C依赖症。
小贴士：喝水时间表
1.起床后：早晨起床后适量多饮些水，可补偿夜间水分的消耗，对预防高血压、脑溢血、脑血栓的形成也有一定的作用。
2.三餐前约1个小时：餐前约1小时空腹喝水，可使水分补充到全身组织细胞，供应体内对水的需要，保证分泌必要的、足够的消化液，来促进食欲，帮助消化吸收，同时可以不影响组织细胞中的生理含水量，还可以避免临睡前口渴饮水，导致起夜、第二天眼睛肿等。
3.上午、下午工作间休：工作期间喝水，可以补充由于工作流汗及经尿排出的水分，而且体内囤积的废物也会因此顺利排出。
4.下班时：离开办公室前喝一杯水，能够增加饱足感。
5.睡前2～3个小时：这个时间饮水可以冲淡血液，加速血液循环。
当然，时间的选择也是因人而异的，只要掌握及时补充水分的大原则，不要让身体缺水即可。
有人习惯早晨起来打开水龙头，接一杯自来水来喝，这是不对的。停用一夜的水龙头及水管中的自来水是静止的，这些水及金属管壁及水龙头金属腔室会产生水化反应，形成金属污染水，并且自来水中残留微生物也会繁殖起来，这种水含有大量对人体有害的物质，还可能藏着威胁人类健康的一种急性呼吸道传染病菌—军团菌。
因此，清晨拧开水龙头，最初流出的自来水是不可饮用的死水，所以有这种习惯的人请马上纠正，以免损害自己的健康。
2、久置的开水
开水久置以后，其中含氮的有机物会不断被分解成亚硝酸盐。尤其是存放过久的开水，难免有细菌污染，此时含氮有机物分解加速，亚硝酸盐的生成也就更多。饮用这样的水后亚硝酸盐与血红蛋白结合，会影响血液的运氧功能。
所以，在暖瓶里多日的开水多次煮沸的残留水、放在炉灶上沸腾很久的水，其成分都已经发生变化而不能饮用了。应该喝一次烧开、不超过24小时的水。
此外，瓶装、桶装的各种纯净水、矿泉水也不宜存放过久。大瓶的或桶装的纯净水、矿泉水超过3天就不应该喝了。
3、盐水
有人认为喝淡盐水有益于身体健康，于是晨起喝淡盐水，这种认识确是错误的。喝淡盐水有利于健康不假，这对于夏天出汗后补充水分是必要的，可对于晨起补充水分来说非但无益，还是一个危害健康的错误做法。
生理学的研究认为，人在整夜睡眠中未饮滴水，然而呼吸、排汗、泌尿却在进行中，这些生理活动要消耗损失许多水分。早晨起床时，血液已成浓缩状态此时如饮一定量的白开水可很快使血液得到稀释，纠正夜间的高渗性脱水。再喝盐开水反而会加重高渗性脱水，令人备加口干。何况，早晨是人体血压升高的第一个高峰，喝盐开水会使血压更高，危害健康。
4、饮料
早上起来的第一杯水最好不要喝市售的果汁、可乐、汽水、咖啡、牛奶等饮料。汽水和可乐等碳酸饮料中大都含有柠檬酸，在代谢过程中会加速钙的排泄，降低血液中钙的含量，长期饮用会导致缺钙。而另一些饮料有利于排尿作用，清晨饮用非但不能有效补充机体缺少的水分，还会增加集体对水分的要求，反而造成体内缺水。
果汁、牛奶、咖啡也不宜作为清晨的第一杯饮料，因为这些物质并不能提供此时机体最需要的水分，还会使机体在缺水的状态下就让胃肠进行消化和吸收工作，不利于身体的健康。
所以大家要为了自己的健康切记以上四种水是清晨起床不可以喝的。
如今，重视喝水的人，越来越多了；但真正会喝的人，却为数不多。不挑时间地喝、不计较内容地喝、不动脑筋地喝……都只能证明你只是喝水，却不一定是喝对了水。在这个爱惜身体成为一种流行的年代，曾经被认为最简单的喝水，也不得不成了一门高深的学问。
5、餐前补水最养胃
吃饭前还要补水吗？那不是会冲淡胃液影响消化吗？西餐有餐前开胃的步骤，其道理在于利用汤菜来调动食欲，润滑食道，为进餐做好准备。那么，饭前补水也就有着同样的意义，进固体食物前，先小饮半杯(约100毫升)，可以是室温的果汁、酸奶，也可以是温热的冰糖菊花水或淡淡的茶水，或者是一小碗浓浓的开胃汤，都是很好的养胃之法。
6、多喝看不见的水
有的人看上去一天到晚都不喝水，那是因为由食物中摄取的水分已经足够应付所需。食物也含水，比如米饭，其中含水量达到60%，而粥呢，就更是含水丰富了。翻开食物成分表不难看出，蔬菜水果的含水量一般超过70%，即便一天只吃500克果蔬，也能获得300~400毫升水分(有两怀呦)。加之日常饮食讲究的就是干稀搭配，所以从三餐食物中获得1500~2000毫升的水分并不困难。不如充分利用三餐进食的机会来补水吧，多选果蔬和不咸的汤粥，补水效果都不错。
7、记住利水食物
所谓利水食物是指能增加身体水分排泄的食物，如西瓜、咖啡、茶等含有利尿成分，能促进肾脏尿液的形成；还有粗粮、蔬菜水果等含有膳食纤维，能在肠道结合大量水分，增加粪便的重量；辛辣刺激的成分能促进体表毛细血管的舒张，让人大汗淋漓、体表水分流失。 补也好、利也好，都是达到身体水分平衡的手段。
8、畅饮与美容无关
身体缺少水分，皮肤看上去会干燥没有光泽；饮水过少还容易发生便干，甚至便秘，皮肤很容易生小痘痘。虽说如此，单单靠补充水分对肤质和肤色的影响毕竟有限，不过现在很多添加维生素的饮料打出了美容牌，比如一种含乳饮料里面含有维生素B6，其产品声称“能令皮肤润滑细嫩”，而现在含有这种“美容维生素”的饮料还真不少。正统的营养学专著中并没有提到它的美容作用，好在摄入多些一没有危险，二还可以预防冠心病的发生，也算有益无害吧。
9、水里的“杀机”
经过煮沸的自来水可能含有具有致癌性的高氯化合物，如经较长时间放置(隔夜)水质会发生老化。
现在各种家用水处理机也纷纷登场，类似曾风靡一时的矿泉壶，这样的设备存在后续维护的问题，就如同饮水机，可能成为饮用水二次污染的源头。
10、喝运动饮料的学问
剧烈运动前后不能补白水，也不能补高浓度的果汁，而应补运动饮料。运动饮料中应该含有少量糖分、钠盐、钾、镁、钙和多种水溶性维生素，以补充运动中身体所失及所需。饮白水会造成血液稀释，排汗量剧增，进一步加重脱水。果汁中过高的糖浓度使果汁由胃排空的时间延长，造成运动中胃部不适。运动饮料中特殊设计的无机盐和糖的浓度会避免这些不良反应。运动饮料的温度也讲究，过高不利于降低体温散热，过凉会造成胃肠道痉挛，一般应口感清凉，温度在10左右。
11、警惕酸味饮料
各种果汁饮料多采用柠檬酸作味剂，柠檬酸食用过多，大量的有机酸骤然进入人体，当摄入量超过机体对酸的处理能力时，就会使体内的PH值不平衡，导致酸血症的产生，使人疲乏，困倦。特别是在盛夏，由于天气炎热，出汗较多，人体会损失大量的电解质，如钾、钠、氯等碱性成分，大量的酸味饮料更容易令体液呈酸性。因此，在夏季不宜过多饮用添加有机酸的酸味饮料。
12、甜饮料的陷阱
如果口渴的时候首先想到的是饮料，可是相当危险的。可乐、雪碧、芬达的含糖量是11%，超过了西瓜、苹果、柑橘等很多种水果，一听350毫升的可乐所含的能量等同于一片面包、一个玉米或250克水果。各种果汁的含糖量与此相当，甚至还要更高于它。脉动、她/他、激活等看上去像水的维生素饮料也含有3%的糖分，如果喝上一大瓶(600毫升吧)，对体重的影响相当可观。也的确听说过有人因为暴饮甜饮料而罹患糖尿病的不幸遭遇呢。
13、淡盐水的坏处
淡盐水是指相当于生理浓度的盐水，每百毫升中含 1克左右的盐分，它在日常生活中有几种用途：一、大汗之后补充身体丢失的水分和钠；二、腹泻之后补充由肠道丢失的水分和盐，维持电解质的平衡；三、淡盐水漱口能清除口腔内的细菌，减轻口咽部炎症造成的红肿。 但是，淡盐水不适合心脏功能不好，有高血压的人饮用，特别是在早晨，当血液粘稠度最高时，饮用淡盐水会加重口干，促进血压升高。
14、识破“花样”水
纯净水，经多重过滤去除了各种微生物、杂质和有益的矿物质，突出的是饮用的安全性，它是一种软水，许多人认为它不够营养，长期饮用不利健康，可是这种观点未被证实。
矿泉水，是种自然资源，由地层深处开采出来，含有丰富的稀有矿物质，略呈碱性，应该更有利于健康，但是不排除有机物污染的可能。
矿物质水，在纯净水中按照人体浓度比例添加矿物质浓缩液配制而成的人工矿泉水，标志着饮用水科技的新高度。
15、爱运动更要会补水
运动补水要掌握以下原则：
a.不能渴时才补。因为感到口渴时，丢失的水分已达体重的2% 。
b.运动前、中、后都要补水。运动前2小时补250—500毫升；运动前即刻补150—250毫升；运动中每15~20分钟补120—240毫升；运动后按运动中体重的丢失量，体重每下降1千克需补1升。
16、勤补水不明智
身体处于稳定状态的时候，每天正常补水1000~2000亳升，让小便保持清亮充沛就可以了。但是如果自觉或不自觉地大量饮水，这其中就有问题了。首先，说明你的身体可能处于脱水状态，身处高温环境，大量排汗或大量进食盐分都可能千百万这种情况，那么补水是必要的；其次，如果存在高血糖、垂体或肾脏功能异常的情况；或者处于感昌、发烧等感染性疾病中；又或者有泌尿系统炎症，甚至是一名高尿酸血症患者，那也可以主动大量饮水。而一个健康人在不感觉口渴的情况下饮水超过2000毫升/天就实在没有必要了，那只不过是一再考验自身的肾脏功能罢了。
17、维生素C饮料多喝无益
新上市的饮料中很多都含有维生素C，维生素C的益处自不必说，为了预防缺乏，每天人体需要补充60~100毫克。“酷儿”的维生素C含量为3~30毫克/100毫升，“脉动”为25~50毫克/100毫升，“她”是15毫克/100毫升，也就是说，饮用此类饮料一瓶获得的维生素C就能满足每天的需要量。那么，如果你饮用2瓶、3瓶，甚至更多呢？会不会发生维生素C中毒的情况呢？好在维生素C的安全范围广，但是千万不要以为它是多多益善的，过量摄入能引起泌尿系统结石，渗透性腹泻以及大剂量维生素C依赖症。
小贴士：喝水时间表
1.起床后：早晨起床后适量多饮些水，可补偿夜间水分的消耗，对预防高血压、脑溢血、脑血栓的形成也有一定的作用。
2.三餐前约1个小时：餐前约1小时空腹喝水，可使水分补充到全身组织细胞，供应体内对水的需要，保证分泌必要的、足够的消化液，来促进食欲，帮助消化吸收，同时可以不影响组织细胞中的生理含水量，还可以避免临睡前口渴饮水，导致起夜、第二天眼睛肿等。
3.上午、下午工作间休：工作期间喝水，可以补充由于工作流汗及经尿排出的水分，而且体内囤积的废物也会因此顺利排出。
4.下班时：离开办公室前喝一杯水，能够增加饱足感。
5.睡前2～3个小时：这个时间饮水可以冲淡血液，加速血液循环。
当然，时间的选择也是因人而异的，只要掌握及时补充水分的大原则，不要让身体缺水即可。
注意睡眠细节 让身心放轻松
睡眠其实也是一门学问，注意睡眠的一些小细节，有助更好的休息，更快的恢复精神。
选好床 首先是床的高度应略高于人的膝盖，理想的垫物最好是硬板床上铺以软硬适中的床垫，这样，可保持人体脊柱处于正常的生理状态，从而保证睡眠舒适。
用好枕 人的颈部是人体最柔弱的地方，枕头太高或太低都会影响颈部肌肉的自然放松，因此，枕头只能使头部比身体稍高一点即可，高度控制在9—15厘米为宜。
盖好被 睡眠要暖和才香甜，但被子不能太厚太重，否则会使身体处在一定的压力之下，有碍人体放松休息。另外，睡眠时忌穿紧身衣裤，否则会影响睡眠。
人每时每刻都在呼吸，睡眠时也不例外，所以卧室应保持空气的流通。
卧为弓 中医学认为，夜晚人体阴气转盛而阳气内敛。屈曲如弓的卧姿有利于阳气的收敛和人体肌肉筋膜完全放松，易于消除疲困。同时人体最好能向右侧卧，可减少心脑负担，促进肝脑藏血功能和胃肠的顺利运行。
多按摩 睡前不妨进行自我按摩，如按摩头皮可起到促进头皮血液循环，松弛神经，消除疲劳，改善头部营养和氧气供应之功效，这对防治白发、脱发均有良好效果。按摩脸部有助于除去皮肤陈旧老化的角质层，加速新陈代谢。按摩腹部有助于胃肠消化及脂肪的代谢，预防腹部“发福”，每次按摩花时不多，日久必见效。
暖好足 睡前用热水洗脚，可促进足部血管扩张，加快血液循环。足部穴位较多，热水的刺激能起到很好的保健作用，尤其是患有失眠和足部静脉曲张者，用热水洗足也能减轻症状，易于入睡。
择时睡 按人体生物钟的规律，入睡的最佳时间是22～23点，起床时间为早晨5～6点。按此规律睡眠可获得最佳的睡眠效果。
补足水 人在夜间入睡后会因呼吸、排尿、出汗等失水而导致血液粘滞度升高，故起床前是脑梗死发生的高危时间，因此，床前应备有水，在夜间醒来和早晨起床时及时补充水分，这样能起到保健和防病的作用。
流通气 人每时每刻都在呼吸，睡眠时也不例外，所以卧室应保持空气的流通，尤其是雨后和早晨空气较为新鲜，含有较高浓度的氧与负离子，污染物也少，应及时开窗流通空气。此外，卧室不宜堆积杂物，以减少室内空气的污染。
选好床 首先是床的高度应略高于人的膝盖，理想的垫物最好是硬板床上铺以软硬适中的床垫，这样，可保持人体脊柱处于正常的生理状态，从而保证睡眠舒适。
用好枕 人的颈部是人体最柔弱的地方，枕头太高或太低都会影响颈部肌肉的自然放松，因此，枕头只能使头部比身体稍高一点即可，高度控制在9—15厘米为宜。
盖好被 睡眠要暖和才香甜，但被子不能太厚太重，否则会使身体处在一定的压力之下，有碍人体放松休息。另外，睡眠时忌穿紧身衣裤，否则会影响睡眠。
人每时每刻都在呼吸，睡眠时也不例外，所以卧室应保持空气的流通。
卧为弓 中医学认为，夜晚人体阴气转盛而阳气内敛。屈曲如弓的卧姿有利于阳气的收敛和人体肌肉筋膜完全放松，易于消除疲困。同时人体最好能向右侧卧，可减少心脑负担，促进肝脑藏血功能和胃肠的顺利运行。
多按摩 睡前不妨进行自我按摩，如按摩头皮可起到促进头皮血液循环，松弛神经，消除疲劳，改善头部营养和氧气供应之功效，这对防治白发、脱发均有良好效果。按摩脸部有助于除去皮肤陈旧老化的角质层，加速新陈代谢。按摩腹部有助于胃肠消化及脂肪的代谢，预防腹部“发福”，每次按摩花时不多，日久必见效。
暖好足 睡前用热水洗脚，可促进足部血管扩张，加快血液循环。足部穴位较多，热水的刺激能起到很好的保健作用，尤其是患有失眠和足部静脉曲张者，用热水洗足也能减轻症状，易于入睡。
择时睡 按人体生物钟的规律，入睡的最佳时间是22～23点，起床时间为早晨5～6点。按此规律睡眠可获得最佳的睡眠效果。
补足水 人在夜间入睡后会因呼吸、排尿、出汗等失水而导致血液粘滞度升高，故起床前是脑梗死发生的高危时间，因此，床前应备有水，在夜间醒来和早晨起床时及时补充水分，这样能起到保健和防病的作用。
流通气 人每时每刻都在呼吸，睡眠时也不例外，所以卧室应保持空气的流通，尤其是雨后和早晨空气较为新鲜，含有较高浓度的氧与负离子，污染物也少，应及时开窗流通空气。此外，卧室不宜堆积杂物，以减少室内空气的污染。
5种男人受前列腺癌“青睐”
今天是父亲节，举家为爸爸欢庆自然是件好事，也说明健康是多么宝贵。
由于饮食、生活习惯的诸多改变，加之视觉与心理的刺激，一些癌症的发病率也变高。前列腺癌，正在慢慢“吞噬”5种男人。
第一种：肥胖
一项新的研究发现，与体重正常的人相比，肥胖男性患前列腺癌的风险高出一倍。
法国一所大学附属医院的研究人员，对194名前列腺癌患者和194名正在接受治疗的非癌性前列腺增大或良性前列腺增生（BPH）患者进行了研究。
这份日前发表在《英国国际泌尿科学杂志》的研究报告称，尽管单纯超重的男性患前列腺癌的危险并不一定会增加，但肥胖（BMI体重指数超过30）仍能使患前列腺癌的危险增加2.5倍。
由于饮食、生活习惯的诸多改变，加之视觉与心理的刺激，一些癌症的发病率也变高。
第二种：秃顶
秃顶男性患前列腺癌的概率是不秃顶男性的两倍。
研究发现，脱发可能是由青春期时的睾丸激素水平所导致，男性患前列腺癌的风险可能与体内的睾丸激素水平有关，这种隐患最早在青春期时就已藏“埋伏”。
第三种：性刺激
罹患前列腺癌的病因日前尚未有定论，但许多临床资料显示，此病与雄激素有关。
雄性激素分泌旺盛，造成体内激素失调后会引起病变，而激素分泌不只与饮食有关，外界的性刺激也可以使雄性激素分泌旺盛，这就包括了视觉与心理刺激。
第四种：性放纵
英国一项调查发现，男性年轻时性生活混乱，可增加日后患前列腺癌的机会。
这项调查指出，若男性在20岁左右时就有许多性伴侣，便会增加感染人类乳头瘤病菌（HPV）的几率。该病菌通常在几十年后引发基因突变，从而导致癌症。
第五种：上晚班
日本针对1万多名男性所作的一项10年跟踪调查显示，日夜颠倒、上晚班的男性，患上前列腺癌的几率是普通上白天班的3.5倍。
不规则的上班时间造成人体生物钟紊乱，导致具有抑制前列腺癌细胞增殖的褪黑激素分泌量下降。
游泳能提高抗病能力 有助前列腺炎症的消退
1 每天游泳半小时
美国最新报道称，男性每天游泳30分钟，患前列腺癌可能性比骑脚车、体操等运动低30％。
游泳能提高抗病能力，促进前列腺局部血液和淋巴循环，使前列腺液分泌更旺盛，有助于前列腺炎症的消退，也可让患者更好地吸收药物。
2 多吃豆类食品
豆类食品中的天然雌性激素可弥补男性自身的缺陷，而豆类中的雌性激素则对前列腺有保护作用。
3 多吃维生素
维生素D能抑制前列腺癌细胞的繁殖和分化，维生素D3对正常前列腺组织的生长和分化也起重要作用。
由于饮食、生活习惯的诸多改变，加之视觉与心理的刺激，一些癌症的发病率也变高。前列腺癌，正在慢慢“吞噬”5种男人。
第一种：肥胖
一项新的研究发现，与体重正常的人相比，肥胖男性患前列腺癌的风险高出一倍。
法国一所大学附属医院的研究人员，对194名前列腺癌患者和194名正在接受治疗的非癌性前列腺增大或良性前列腺增生（BPH）患者进行了研究。
这份日前发表在《英国国际泌尿科学杂志》的研究报告称，尽管单纯超重的男性患前列腺癌的危险并不一定会增加，但肥胖（BMI体重指数超过30）仍能使患前列腺癌的危险增加2.5倍。
由于饮食、生活习惯的诸多改变，加之视觉与心理的刺激，一些癌症的发病率也变高。
第二种：秃顶
秃顶男性患前列腺癌的概率是不秃顶男性的两倍。
研究发现，脱发可能是由青春期时的睾丸激素水平所导致，男性患前列腺癌的风险可能与体内的睾丸激素水平有关，这种隐患最早在青春期时就已藏“埋伏”。
第三种：性刺激
罹患前列腺癌的病因日前尚未有定论，但许多临床资料显示，此病与雄激素有关。
雄性激素分泌旺盛，造成体内激素失调后会引起病变，而激素分泌不只与饮食有关，外界的性刺激也可以使雄性激素分泌旺盛，这就包括了视觉与心理刺激。
第四种：性放纵
英国一项调查发现，男性年轻时性生活混乱，可增加日后患前列腺癌的机会。
这项调查指出，若男性在20岁左右时就有许多性伴侣，便会增加感染人类乳头瘤病菌（HPV）的几率。该病菌通常在几十年后引发基因突变，从而导致癌症。
第五种：上晚班
日本针对1万多名男性所作的一项10年跟踪调查显示，日夜颠倒、上晚班的男性，患上前列腺癌的几率是普通上白天班的3.5倍。
不规则的上班时间造成人体生物钟紊乱，导致具有抑制前列腺癌细胞增殖的褪黑激素分泌量下降。
游泳能提高抗病能力 有助前列腺炎症的消退
1 每天游泳半小时
美国最新报道称，男性每天游泳30分钟，患前列腺癌可能性比骑脚车、体操等运动低30％。
游泳能提高抗病能力，促进前列腺局部血液和淋巴循环，使前列腺液分泌更旺盛，有助于前列腺炎症的消退，也可让患者更好地吸收药物。
2 多吃豆类食品
豆类食品中的天然雌性激素可弥补男性自身的缺陷，而豆类中的雌性激素则对前列腺有保护作用。
3 多吃维生素
维生素D能抑制前列腺癌细胞的繁殖和分化，维生素D3对正常前列腺组织的生长和分化也起重要作用。
椎间盘突造成疼痛 一针插入解决问题
本地医生两三年前开始采用一种新的微创手术，治疗椎间盘突出（slip disc）所引起的背部和颈椎疼痛问题后，至今已有百多名病人接受这种椎间盘核心重建手术（Nucleoplasty）。
在进行这项新手术时，医生摒弃传统手术刀，改而以一根长针直刺病人椎间盘核心（nucleus），再运用等离子仪器（plasma device）上的热能量，把部分软组织从固体化为液体，再化成气体蒸发掉，目的是要腾出空间，好让突出的椎间盘缩回原位，不再压到神经，这样便能解决疼痛问题。
本报记者和一组医生，昨天早上在安微尼亚山医院（Mt Alvernia Hospital）观看高级骨科顾问医生罗志光和放射学顾问医生张毅，为一名37岁的颈椎病人进行这项手术。来自德国的骨科专家阿钦卢瑟医生则在一旁讲解。卢瑟医生曾为1000名病人动过这项手术，经验非常丰富。
卢瑟医生讲解椎间盘核心重建手术的方法和作用。（邓智炜摄）
罗医生在手术后告诉媒体，不是所有颈椎或背痛病人，都适合这种手术，他在选择为病人进行手术时有两大准则，一是在进行磁场扫描时，确定病人的椎间盘核心组织没有破裂，其次是病人的手或脚出现麻痹现象。根据他的经验，每10名病人中有3人适合动这项手术。
椎间盘核心重建手术在本地越来越普遍，罗医生说，本地医院平均每星期会进行一宗这类手术。提供这项服务的医院包括中央医院、樟宜综合医院、鹰阁医院、安微尼亚山医院、莱佛士医院等。据他了解，本地有六到八名医生为病人动这类手术。
全付费病人进行这项手术时，费用介于五六千元。如果是传统的椎间盘突出手术，费用在1万2000元至1万5000元之间。
动椎间盘核心重建手术只需半个小时，病人只进行局部麻醉，手术后一般住院一天，复原期约两个星期。传统手术一般要四个小时，病人需全身麻醉，手术后要住院四、五天，复原期约六星期。不过，不同病人需要不同的治疗方式，视椎间盘损伤情况而定。
卢瑟医生自2002年起便为病人进行椎间盘核心重建手术，根据他的经验，手术成功率高达75％至85％，关键在于挑选合适病人。他曾为1000名病人动过这类手术，当中只有8到10个病人，因旧病复发需要再动一次手术。
在回答记者问题时，卢瑟医生说，他每看100名椎间盘突出的病人，就有两人需要开刀解决问题，另外8到10人只需动不会留下伤口的椎间盘核心重建手术，其余的人根本不必动手术，只需注射类固醇（cortisone）和进行物理治疗便能解决问题。
卢瑟医生也指出，30％的人有椎间盘突出问题，但不一定会引起疼痛，医生只治疗那些有疼痛问题的病人。
通常让病人先接受保守疗法
罗志光医生说，本地医生通常会让病人先接受三个月的保守疗法（打针和物理治疗），如果三个月后依然无效，才会考虑椎间盘核心重建手术。本地病人以中年人居多。
椎间盘核心重建手术的仪器，早在2000年便在美国上市，不过最先采用这种技术的是欧洲国家。本地医生是在2005年才采用这类手术为病人解决疼痛问题。
在进行这项新手术时，医生摒弃传统手术刀，改而以一根长针直刺病人椎间盘核心（nucleus），再运用等离子仪器（plasma device）上的热能量，把部分软组织从固体化为液体，再化成气体蒸发掉，目的是要腾出空间，好让突出的椎间盘缩回原位，不再压到神经，这样便能解决疼痛问题。
本报记者和一组医生，昨天早上在安微尼亚山医院（Mt Alvernia Hospital）观看高级骨科顾问医生罗志光和放射学顾问医生张毅，为一名37岁的颈椎病人进行这项手术。来自德国的骨科专家阿钦卢瑟医生则在一旁讲解。卢瑟医生曾为1000名病人动过这项手术，经验非常丰富。
卢瑟医生讲解椎间盘核心重建手术的方法和作用。（邓智炜摄）
罗医生在手术后告诉媒体，不是所有颈椎或背痛病人，都适合这种手术，他在选择为病人进行手术时有两大准则，一是在进行磁场扫描时，确定病人的椎间盘核心组织没有破裂，其次是病人的手或脚出现麻痹现象。根据他的经验，每10名病人中有3人适合动这项手术。
椎间盘核心重建手术在本地越来越普遍，罗医生说，本地医院平均每星期会进行一宗这类手术。提供这项服务的医院包括中央医院、樟宜综合医院、鹰阁医院、安微尼亚山医院、莱佛士医院等。据他了解，本地有六到八名医生为病人动这类手术。
全付费病人进行这项手术时，费用介于五六千元。如果是传统的椎间盘突出手术，费用在1万2000元至1万5000元之间。
动椎间盘核心重建手术只需半个小时，病人只进行局部麻醉，手术后一般住院一天，复原期约两个星期。传统手术一般要四个小时，病人需全身麻醉，手术后要住院四、五天，复原期约六星期。不过，不同病人需要不同的治疗方式，视椎间盘损伤情况而定。
卢瑟医生自2002年起便为病人进行椎间盘核心重建手术，根据他的经验，手术成功率高达75％至85％，关键在于挑选合适病人。他曾为1000名病人动过这类手术，当中只有8到10个病人，因旧病复发需要再动一次手术。
在回答记者问题时，卢瑟医生说，他每看100名椎间盘突出的病人，就有两人需要开刀解决问题，另外8到10人只需动不会留下伤口的椎间盘核心重建手术，其余的人根本不必动手术，只需注射类固醇（cortisone）和进行物理治疗便能解决问题。
卢瑟医生也指出，30％的人有椎间盘突出问题，但不一定会引起疼痛，医生只治疗那些有疼痛问题的病人。
通常让病人先接受保守疗法
罗志光医生说，本地医生通常会让病人先接受三个月的保守疗法（打针和物理治疗），如果三个月后依然无效，才会考虑椎间盘核心重建手术。本地病人以中年人居多。
椎间盘核心重建手术的仪器，早在2000年便在美国上市，不过最先采用这种技术的是欧洲国家。本地医生是在2005年才采用这类手术为病人解决疼痛问题。
睡前避免吃的五种食物
夜里能否睡得好，晚上吃了什么非常重要。《黄帝内经》里曾有“胃不合则卧不安”的说法；临床营养学家也指出，导致睡眠障碍的原因之一，就是晚餐中吃了一些“不宜”的食物。那么，究竟晚上吃什么食物会让你夜不能寐呢？
一、咖啡因
很多人都知道，含咖啡因食物会刺激神经系统，还具有一定的利尿作用，是导致失眠的常见原因。
二、辛辣食物
晚餐吃辛辣食物也是影响睡眠的重要原因之一。辣椒、大蒜、洋葱等会造成胃中有灼烧感，进而影响睡眠。
三、油腻食物
咖啡因食物会刺激神经系统。
油腻的食物吃了后会加重肠、胃、肝、胆和胰的工作负担，刺激神经中枢，让它一直处于工作状态，也会导致失眠。
四、有饱腹作用的食物
有些食物在消化过程中会产生较多的气体，从而产生腹胀感，妨碍正常睡眠，如豆类、大白菜、洋葱、玉米等。
五、酒类
睡前饮少量酒可以促进睡眠。饮酒过量，它虽然可以让人很快入睡，但却让睡眠状况一直停留在浅睡期，很难进入深睡期。所以，即使睡的时间很长，醒来后仍会有疲乏的感觉。
睡前饮少量酒可以促进睡眠。
除了上述睡前应避免吃的食物外，也须注意：
忌睡前用脑：如果有在晚上工作和学习的习惯，要先做比较费脑筋的事，后做比较轻松的事。否则，脑子处于兴奋状态，人难以入睡，时间长了，易形成失眠症。
忌睡前激动：人的喜怒哀乐，都容易引起神经中枢的兴奋或紊乱，因此，睡前的大喜大怒或忧思均会使人难以入睡，甚至造成失眠。这时，可取仰卧姿势，双手放在脐下，舌舔下腭，全身放松，口中生津时，不断将津液咽下，几分钟后你便进入梦乡。
忌对灯而睡：人睡着时，眼睛仍能感到光亮。如果对灯而睡，灯光会扰乱人体内的自然平衡，致使人的体温、心跳、血压变得不协调，从而使人感到心神不安，容易惊醒。
一、咖啡因
很多人都知道，含咖啡因食物会刺激神经系统，还具有一定的利尿作用，是导致失眠的常见原因。
二、辛辣食物
晚餐吃辛辣食物也是影响睡眠的重要原因之一。辣椒、大蒜、洋葱等会造成胃中有灼烧感，进而影响睡眠。
三、油腻食物
咖啡因食物会刺激神经系统。
油腻的食物吃了后会加重肠、胃、肝、胆和胰的工作负担，刺激神经中枢，让它一直处于工作状态，也会导致失眠。
四、有饱腹作用的食物
有些食物在消化过程中会产生较多的气体，从而产生腹胀感，妨碍正常睡眠，如豆类、大白菜、洋葱、玉米等。
五、酒类
睡前饮少量酒可以促进睡眠。饮酒过量，它虽然可以让人很快入睡，但却让睡眠状况一直停留在浅睡期，很难进入深睡期。所以，即使睡的时间很长，醒来后仍会有疲乏的感觉。
睡前饮少量酒可以促进睡眠。
除了上述睡前应避免吃的食物外，也须注意：
忌睡前用脑：如果有在晚上工作和学习的习惯，要先做比较费脑筋的事，后做比较轻松的事。否则，脑子处于兴奋状态，人难以入睡，时间长了，易形成失眠症。
忌睡前激动：人的喜怒哀乐，都容易引起神经中枢的兴奋或紊乱，因此，睡前的大喜大怒或忧思均会使人难以入睡，甚至造成失眠。这时，可取仰卧姿势，双手放在脐下，舌舔下腭，全身放松，口中生津时，不断将津液咽下，几分钟后你便进入梦乡。
忌对灯而睡：人睡着时，眼睛仍能感到光亮。如果对灯而睡，灯光会扰乱人体内的自然平衡，致使人的体温、心跳、血压变得不协调，从而使人感到心神不安，容易惊醒。
皮肤经常瘙痒？ 别忽略检查血糖
糖尿病患者主要征状是多饮、多吃、多尿却消瘦乏力等所谓“三多一少”。但是，全身或者局部性经常发生皮肤病或是皮肤感染，也可能是症状之一。
一些糖尿病患者，甚至是因为皮肤受到感染去看皮肤科医生时，才知道患有糖尿病。
糖尿病是一种慢性内分泌代谢性疾病。近年来，医学界研究发现，不少缺乏典型征状或是处于隐性期间的糖尿病人，其皮肤往往会出现种种异常变化。
全身或局部性瘙痒
宇暄医学中心主任陈镜洲医生说，其实皮肤瘙痒是糖尿病的早期发病的症状之一，糖尿病患者发生皮肤病或是皮肤感染的很常见，有一些患者甚至是在皮肤科看皮肤感染时，才知道患有糖尿病。
早期糖尿病人的皮肤瘙痒分为全身性或局部性，发病部位则不定，发病程度也不一致，但一般多发生于女阴、阴囊等部位，特别是女性外阴瘙痒更为常见。
同时，陈镜洲医生说，糖尿病引起的皮肤瘙痒十分难受，大多数会反复发作，有些病人因为瘙痒难忍，搔抓后还会皮破血流，由于反复搔抓，皮肤上常见抓痕、血痂，可继发为皮炎，日久之后皮肤变硬、色素沉淀，有的患者还可皮肤干燥脱屑。
四个原因
陈镜洲医生说，导致糖尿病患者皮肤经常瘙痒的原因有4点：
第一，糖尿病患者周边神经末梢容易发炎，导致手足感觉异常，皮肤瘙痒。
第二是微血管循环差，局部细胞的功能也变差。
第三，血液中糖分高，霉菌生长入侵感染皮肤而引起。
第四，糖尿病病人汗液分泌减少，也会因为皮肤过度干燥而瘙痒。
为了保护皮肤，糖尿病患者应该小心保养皮肤，例如可使用滋润液，滋润皮肤以免皮肤过度干燥。
确保血糖在正常范围
引起皮肤瘙痒的原因很多，对于经常性患者，应考虑到患糖尿病的可能。发现有瘙痒症状，特别是一些中老年人，如果皮肤瘙痒久治不愈的，应尽快到医院检查，以便明确病因，对症治疗。
陈镜洲医生说，如果是糖尿病引起的皮肤瘙痒，应该降低血糖浓度，控制好血糖，皮肤病变可望痊愈。不确定自己是否血糖过高，应到医院请专科医生治疗，保证血糖在正常范围，只有血糖控制好，皮肤瘙痒才可以缓解和治愈。
大多数人以为，糖尿病患者的主要征状是多饮、多吃、多尿却消瘦乏力等所谓“三多一少”，但是，有很多糖尿病患者，尤其是中老年人并没有典型的“三多一少”症状，也因此即使患病了，也未能及时引起注意。
由于皮肤瘙痒是糖尿病初发时的病征，因此若是发现自己经常性皮肤瘙痒，则应当特别小心，及时到医院作进一步检查，以便早期发现糖尿病，使自己得到早期治疗，较容易控制病情。
糖尿病患者如果没有及早发现，延误了最佳治疗时机，久之，人体的微血管发生病变，影响了组织和血管的血液供应，会进一步发生并发症，包括心脏病、肾病、白内障等。
一些糖尿病患者，甚至是因为皮肤受到感染去看皮肤科医生时，才知道患有糖尿病。
糖尿病是一种慢性内分泌代谢性疾病。近年来，医学界研究发现，不少缺乏典型征状或是处于隐性期间的糖尿病人，其皮肤往往会出现种种异常变化。
全身或局部性瘙痒
宇暄医学中心主任陈镜洲医生说，其实皮肤瘙痒是糖尿病的早期发病的症状之一，糖尿病患者发生皮肤病或是皮肤感染的很常见，有一些患者甚至是在皮肤科看皮肤感染时，才知道患有糖尿病。
早期糖尿病人的皮肤瘙痒分为全身性或局部性，发病部位则不定，发病程度也不一致，但一般多发生于女阴、阴囊等部位，特别是女性外阴瘙痒更为常见。
同时，陈镜洲医生说，糖尿病引起的皮肤瘙痒十分难受，大多数会反复发作，有些病人因为瘙痒难忍，搔抓后还会皮破血流，由于反复搔抓，皮肤上常见抓痕、血痂，可继发为皮炎，日久之后皮肤变硬、色素沉淀，有的患者还可皮肤干燥脱屑。
四个原因
陈镜洲医生说，导致糖尿病患者皮肤经常瘙痒的原因有4点：
第一，糖尿病患者周边神经末梢容易发炎，导致手足感觉异常，皮肤瘙痒。
第二是微血管循环差，局部细胞的功能也变差。
第三，血液中糖分高，霉菌生长入侵感染皮肤而引起。
第四，糖尿病病人汗液分泌减少，也会因为皮肤过度干燥而瘙痒。
为了保护皮肤，糖尿病患者应该小心保养皮肤，例如可使用滋润液，滋润皮肤以免皮肤过度干燥。
确保血糖在正常范围
引起皮肤瘙痒的原因很多，对于经常性患者，应考虑到患糖尿病的可能。发现有瘙痒症状，特别是一些中老年人，如果皮肤瘙痒久治不愈的，应尽快到医院检查，以便明确病因，对症治疗。
陈镜洲医生说，如果是糖尿病引起的皮肤瘙痒，应该降低血糖浓度，控制好血糖，皮肤病变可望痊愈。不确定自己是否血糖过高，应到医院请专科医生治疗，保证血糖在正常范围，只有血糖控制好，皮肤瘙痒才可以缓解和治愈。
大多数人以为，糖尿病患者的主要征状是多饮、多吃、多尿却消瘦乏力等所谓“三多一少”，但是，有很多糖尿病患者，尤其是中老年人并没有典型的“三多一少”症状，也因此即使患病了，也未能及时引起注意。
由于皮肤瘙痒是糖尿病初发时的病征，因此若是发现自己经常性皮肤瘙痒，则应当特别小心，及时到医院作进一步检查，以便早期发现糖尿病，使自己得到早期治疗，较容易控制病情。
糖尿病患者如果没有及早发现，延误了最佳治疗时机，久之，人体的微血管发生病变，影响了组织和血管的血液供应，会进一步发生并发症，包括心脏病、肾病、白内障等。
少钠不行，多钠更不行
摄取过多的钠会增加血液循环的负荷，导致血压上升。饮食中的高钠也会导致钙质从尿中排出，造成骨质疏松。
新加坡人爱吃是出了名的，而且不只爱，还很挑嘴，喜欢味道浓郁的食物，多数人无蘸料不欢，在外用餐时，少不了来一小碟辣椒酱青，吃火锅时，蘸料的选择更是五花八门。
蘸料是日常饮食中钠(sodium)的来源之一，如椒盐、酱青、辣椒酱、番茄酱、甜酱都含有钠。
这么一说，大家可能都怕了，把钠看成是和胆固醇一样的坏东西，最好不要碰，但这其实是认知上的偏颇。
食用过量的钠对健康不利
钠是矿物质的一种，是人体调节生理机能不可或缺的元素，对保证体内正常的生理、生化活动和功能，起着重要作用，摄取太少或缺乏时，会出现疲劳、虚弱、倦怠的现象。
多数人无酱料不欢，在外用餐时，少不了来一小碟辣椒酱青。
钠因此是人体健康的必需矿物质，但一旦食用过量，就会对健康带来害处。
新加坡保健促进局建议，每人每天最好只摄取少于2000毫克的钠，这等于约一茶匙的盐。
问问自己，你一天吃进肚里的钠有少于2000毫克吗？
不妨参考一下营养师伍卉苓提供的“数据”：一茶匙的蚝油酱，钠含量345毫克／一茶匙的酱青，钠含量365毫克／一茶匙的酱油，钠含量203毫克／一茶匙的番茄酱，钠含量114毫克／一茶匙的辣椒酱，钠含量57毫克。
吃皮蛋粥，嫌味道清淡，加点酱青调味，一茶匙的钠含量不过就365毫克，安全安全。如果你是这么想的，那就大错特错。
食物中本身就含钠
伍卉苓说：“外面卖的皮蛋粥，师傅已经加了油，加了盐，钠含量就有1915毫克，加入酱青，就超出每人每天的建议用量了。”
摄取过多的钠有什么潜在危机？伍卉苓说，它会增加血液循环的负荷，导致血压上升，久而久之，会引发中风和心血管疾病。饮食中的高钠也会导致钙质从尿液中排出，容易造成骨质疏松。
伍卉苓也指出，除了含钠，有些蘸料如蛋黄酱(mayonnaise)的胆固醇含量一点也不低。另外，诸如芝麻酱、沙拉酱，看起来虽是健康食品，却含有极高脂肪，如果多吃，对健康也不利。
很多人爱把鱼露当蘸料，食用起来感觉特别开胃，殊不知每100克的鱼露含大约1.4克脂肪和6329毫克的钠，真个是利口不利腹。
伍卉苓说：“食用蘸料的分量应适可而止，真要吃也最好选择一些天然香料调制的蘸酱，如柠檬汁、蒜头、姜、洋葱等。”
控制钠含量有妙法
要有效控制饮食中的钠含量，伍卉苓有以下建议：
——在试过食物的味道后才决定加不加蘸料
——吃新鲜蔬菜
——用天然香料，或水果汁（如柠檬汁、橙汁）来给食物调味
——购买食品时，阅读食物标签，选择低钠的食品
——尽量避免食用加工肉类和腌制肉类
——如果吃了某些高钠食物，就要学会均衡食物选择，下一餐减少钠的摄取
——在外用餐要注意钠的含量。吃面汤时尽量不把汤喝光。吃饭时，避免捞酱汁。
伍卉苓也提醒，不是说少钠的食品就应多吃，比如把少盐的健康酱油买回家，以为低钠，就可多下一点调味，结果吃进体内的钠含量还是一样高。
新加坡人爱吃是出了名的，而且不只爱，还很挑嘴，喜欢味道浓郁的食物，多数人无蘸料不欢，在外用餐时，少不了来一小碟辣椒酱青，吃火锅时，蘸料的选择更是五花八门。
蘸料是日常饮食中钠(sodium)的来源之一，如椒盐、酱青、辣椒酱、番茄酱、甜酱都含有钠。
这么一说，大家可能都怕了，把钠看成是和胆固醇一样的坏东西，最好不要碰，但这其实是认知上的偏颇。
食用过量的钠对健康不利
钠是矿物质的一种，是人体调节生理机能不可或缺的元素，对保证体内正常的生理、生化活动和功能，起着重要作用，摄取太少或缺乏时，会出现疲劳、虚弱、倦怠的现象。
多数人无酱料不欢，在外用餐时，少不了来一小碟辣椒酱青。
钠因此是人体健康的必需矿物质，但一旦食用过量，就会对健康带来害处。
新加坡保健促进局建议，每人每天最好只摄取少于2000毫克的钠，这等于约一茶匙的盐。
问问自己，你一天吃进肚里的钠有少于2000毫克吗？
不妨参考一下营养师伍卉苓提供的“数据”：一茶匙的蚝油酱，钠含量345毫克／一茶匙的酱青，钠含量365毫克／一茶匙的酱油，钠含量203毫克／一茶匙的番茄酱，钠含量114毫克／一茶匙的辣椒酱，钠含量57毫克。
吃皮蛋粥，嫌味道清淡，加点酱青调味，一茶匙的钠含量不过就365毫克，安全安全。如果你是这么想的，那就大错特错。
食物中本身就含钠
伍卉苓说：“外面卖的皮蛋粥，师傅已经加了油，加了盐，钠含量就有1915毫克，加入酱青，就超出每人每天的建议用量了。”
摄取过多的钠有什么潜在危机？伍卉苓说，它会增加血液循环的负荷，导致血压上升，久而久之，会引发中风和心血管疾病。饮食中的高钠也会导致钙质从尿液中排出，容易造成骨质疏松。
伍卉苓也指出，除了含钠，有些蘸料如蛋黄酱(mayonnaise)的胆固醇含量一点也不低。另外，诸如芝麻酱、沙拉酱，看起来虽是健康食品，却含有极高脂肪，如果多吃，对健康也不利。
很多人爱把鱼露当蘸料，食用起来感觉特别开胃，殊不知每100克的鱼露含大约1.4克脂肪和6329毫克的钠，真个是利口不利腹。
伍卉苓说：“食用蘸料的分量应适可而止，真要吃也最好选择一些天然香料调制的蘸酱，如柠檬汁、蒜头、姜、洋葱等。”
控制钠含量有妙法
要有效控制饮食中的钠含量，伍卉苓有以下建议：
——在试过食物的味道后才决定加不加蘸料
——吃新鲜蔬菜
——用天然香料，或水果汁（如柠檬汁、橙汁）来给食物调味
——购买食品时，阅读食物标签，选择低钠的食品
——尽量避免食用加工肉类和腌制肉类
——如果吃了某些高钠食物，就要学会均衡食物选择，下一餐减少钠的摄取
——在外用餐要注意钠的含量。吃面汤时尽量不把汤喝光。吃饭时，避免捞酱汁。
伍卉苓也提醒，不是说少钠的食品就应多吃，比如把少盐的健康酱油买回家，以为低钠，就可多下一点调味，结果吃进体内的钠含量还是一样高。
Saturday, July 5, 2008
成功的各種定義
年紀漸大，我老曹對成功二字有更深入了解。何謂成功？就係以你自己方法，過你自己想過生活，就係成功。
只要自己喜歡可華衣美食，亦可樸素勤儉，兩者都係成功，因為成功係冇格式，但求從心所欲就得。有人話日忙夜忙係成功；有人話落得清閒係成功。其實兩者都係成功，只要上述都係自己選擇就得。
事業成功帶畀你自由去做你想做事、想去地方或想提供乜嘢畀家人？甚至係協助人地能力及對社會提供服務能力。成功可能係辛勤工作後代價；亦可能係投資成功後回報。不過，但有一點十分肯定係，人生目標唔係為積聚財富，而係點樣運用財富以達到利己同利人目標。
只要自己喜歡可華衣美食，亦可樸素勤儉，兩者都係成功，因為成功係冇格式，但求從心所欲就得。有人話日忙夜忙係成功；有人話落得清閒係成功。其實兩者都係成功，只要上述都係自己選擇就得。
事業成功帶畀你自由去做你想做事、想去地方或想提供乜嘢畀家人？甚至係協助人地能力及對社會提供服務能力。成功可能係辛勤工作後代價；亦可能係投資成功後回報。不過，但有一點十分肯定係，人生目標唔係為積聚財富，而係點樣運用財富以達到利己同利人目標。
格言
First question:
What are my benefits?
Plan for my future.
Larry Ellison: I try to think things through. I try to always ask two questions about my personal policies in life. Are they fair, are they morally correct? And do they work? I try to reason things back to first principles. I try to think about things, and come to conclusions and make my own decisions. If anyone has a logical criticism and can explain to me why what I'm doing is wrong, and they can convince me, I'll change. If they have good reasons, I'll just alter my behaviour. I love it when people point out when I'm wrong, and explain to me why I'm wrong. That's great. I don't want to be wrong. I would love to be right. If I am wrong, I love it when people stop me.
2008年投資格言：
一、揀股唔炒市，指數升降並唔重要。例如11月至今恒指回落15％，唔少科技股上升25-50％。
二、找尋增長股，即業績轉虧為盈或純利大幅上升股份，最好係營業額上升、邊際利潤擴闊（毛利率上升）股份。
三、唔好感情用事，對住倒瀉牛奶，喊係冇用，買入後如虧損15％立即止蝕，喊都無謂；買入後上升20％或以上便滋油淡定，等候日後收割，千萬不可賺唔切。
四、任何股價都唔會直線上升，一定係曲折線條，例如浪2回落係浪1升幅三分一到二分一，浪3再升；浪4回落浪3升幅三分一到二分一；浪5上升完畢後獲利回吐。跌市往往係A、B、C，即A浪下跌，B浪反彈A浪跌幅三分一到二分一，然後再跌，因此唔好浪A便入市，應浪C完成才入市。
五、展望明年股市肯定大幅波動，相信聯儲局仍會減息兩次或以上，明年年中利率極有可能見3.5厘。繼續避開同次按有關行業及國企、紅籌股，睇好內需股同科技股。
投資唔係跟大隊須獨立思考
投資唔係賺取10％或20％回報，而係找尋可以改變你一生項目；投資目的唔係保本，而係追求高增長，記住唔係低增長，而係高增長，例如每年30％升幅。投資唔係買昨天的藍籌股，而係買明日藍籌股。邊D先至係明日藍籌股？便考眼光。投資唔係跟大隊，而係獨立思考。2000年人人睇好科網股，今年10月人人推介國企、紅籌股，你又點睇？展望2008年大藍籌股純利增幅肯定放緩；反之，科技股純利又到上升期。
投資唔使大學教授水準，小學畢業已足夠（Keep it simple it）. 你聽過LA Gear嗎？八十年代股價曾上升819％。你聽過Conair嗎？九十年代亦曾上升1000％。香港好多二線股名字你可能未聽過，但卻可能勁升（亦有可能勁跌，如睇錯便蝕15％離場，唔傷荷包）。
請坐低飲杯茶、食個包，好好思考2008年應睇好乜？
新一年代表新趨勢浮現，亦代表舊趨勢可能結束。例如廣船及南方航空股價經爆炸性上升後，已唔再值得持有，一旦股價由高峰回落20％以上便止蝕離場。
追隨趨勢，尋找D純利進入高增長期股份，才係最佳投資策略。股市內悲劇係大部分投資者皆忽略趨勢，只睇走勢，往往賺粒糖、輸間廠。
2008年做個trend-rider及earning-seeker。祝各位聖誕節時pick the right stock。
唔好去人多地方，平安夜應平平安安地度過，一如股市，人多地方唔好去。
股市鐵律：少數人贏錢、大多數人輸錢
1 - Research clearly demonstrates that "when broad market indexes go above P/E ratios of 23 or so, investors essentially get no return over the next 10 years".
2 - An important study "showed that an inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) is the single most reliable predictor of recessions. Recessions appear roughly a year after an inverted yield curve."
3 - The Investment Matrix Revelations :
"There are clear patterns of returns relating to the secular bull and secular bear cycles. (....) Once the new period starts, it tends to persist for long periods of time. Though the very long-term returns have been positive and near average, investment horizons of 10 years, 20 years, and even longer aren't long enough to ensure positive or acceptable returns. (...) the charts clearly show the most important thing you can do to positively affect your long-term returns is to begin investing in times of low P/E ratios".
4 - Technical analysis doesn't work :
"Mark Finn of Vantage Consulting has spent years analyzing trading systems. (...) He has a team of certifiable mathematical geniuses working for him. They have access to the best pattern recognition software available. They have run price data through every conceivable program and come away with this conclusion: Past performance is not indicative of future results."
5 - Investors behaving badly :
Gavin McQuill of the Financial Research Corporation (...) focused on six emotions that cause investors to make mistakes.
1. Fear of regret - an inability to accept you've made a wrong decision, which leads to holding onto losers too long or selling winners too soon.
2. Myopic loss aversion - a fear of losing money and the subsequent inability to withstand short-term events and maintain a long-term perspective.
3. Cognitive dissonance - the inability to change your opinion after new evidence contradicts your baseline assumption.
4. Overconfidence - people's tendency to overestimate their abilities relative to individuals possessing greater expertise.
5. Anchoring - people's tendency to give too much credence to their most recent experience and to show reluctance to adjust their current beliefs.
6. Representativeness - the tendency of people to see patterns within random events.
6 - Value Value Value
"Throughout this book, I show how value wins time and again. We have also seen numerous studies that show that buying deep value for the long term is a strategy that works in all types of markets. It is the only thing that works for stocks in a secular bear market cycle.
The essence of Bull's Eye Investing is quite simple. Target your investments to where the market is going, not to where it has been. Steady, stable, sure. Buying something that is undervalued, perhaps grossly undervalued, and waiting for the value to be seen by others is the way to real returns. Buying what everyone else is buying, after it has already risen in value, is why most investors simply do poorly."
Stay away from the crowd, and buy things at a big discount."Michael Price
Focus on my interests. Never affect by outside forces.
Every times, others call me, they want something’s from me, every times I call others, and I want something’s from them.
Every body has their ulterior motives.
Keep a humble exterior, keep a low profile always, keep clam all the times. Silent is golden only apply to when I don’t want others to know too much, when it is times to speak for my right, never hesitate to speak out.
This article was compiled by Yang Huiwen for the Straits Times yesterday. Even though I do not act much on analysts' advice and sometimes even prefer to take a contrarian approach, it is always worthwhile to take note of what these big fund houses are focusing on.
In one of the chapters in your book, you mentioned that none of the popular technical analysis tools have consistently outperformed the stock market over the years – and that the only proven methods to outperform the market have been buying values or trend-following. My own impression (although I have not done any exhaustive research) is that some methods out there do work, such as the Dow Theory, IBD’s CANSLIM method, and the intermediate buy or sell signals from Lowry’s reports. Have you seen any research on these methods and if so, do you regard them as a subgroup of trend-following systems?
What makes a technical trading system work is that it has risk-management. All technical trading systems will work if they have good risk management and if you have the discipline to sell your losers and let your winners ride. So if you manage to catch the trend, it works. There are people that can look at different signals in different markets and they can read it – and they are drawing inferences and it makes sense to them. But most people looking at the same data can’t do it.
So a lot of it is an art form?
Yes, if some technical trading system was proven to work and everybody realizes it, then the next day it would stop working.
While share price growth is set to slow down amid volatility, valuations are still attractive.
Next year, 2008, Singaporeans are getting their bonus and pay rise, BB are planning way to transfer the money to their pockets, it will spread good news to entice retail investors to buy shares, BB will target sectors that still have good selling stories, like marine, banking and construction. So expect STI to ramp up all the way till Chinese New Year, may be will break 3900-4100 points then it will drop back to 3400 in Feb and further down to 3000 by May 2008.
Don’t be suckers and buy shares and property at wrong times, when the BB know negative news and start selling to us. BB have advance news, unlike us, BB will try to unload their assets to us when they anticipate down trend is coming.
Keen to be Businessman, I can buy shares of listed companies, it is the same. Keen to be landlord, I can buy listed property firms. I can collect dividends like collect rentals, because owning a property must pay additional maintenance costs and high income tax as much as 25%.
其疾如風、其徐如林、侵掠如火、不動如山
Every trader should study his own psychology and priorities before he starts committing time and money into trading.
If you don’t take care of yourself, in this world nobody will.
Just focus on having a peaceful life, avoid all unnecessary hassle.
My previous friends and relatives were all close to me for certain benefits and freebies.
Just Focus on making more money from investment and take care of my health (meditation).
Must have the ability to spot danger sighs and able to read characters. Avoid the danger before making any commitment.
When I am poor and sick, nobody help me, must be able to take care of myself financially and physically.
Must devise an investment method that suits my personality.
Be more like a writer, don’t get involve, just observe and write down your thought. Analyze what I see and written down and then act accordingly.
Never be a follower, it is risky.
Silent is Golden. Never tell you investment methods, it should be kept as an absolute secret.
Be independent, never depend on others, learn from my own mistakes, I was too dependent on my mother, just like my mother now, thus become an ineffectual person, I must change.
Don’t give other too much respect; they just want to take advantages of you.
I was a fool previously, trusting other opinions.
This is a zero sum game world, either you win or other wins, always be preparing for battle.
Have independent minds; never trust other, like Rockerfeller said to his children.
The conspiracy theory of the world, the mass media and politicians are always giving the wrong messages and news to the mass majority.
Always be a spectator, watch the world around you carefully and observe their actions, learn from their mistakes and pick up their good strategy.
Stay away from the crowd, this will give you time to think calmly, just like Warren Buffett who still live in Omaha.
臺灣大王王永慶說過，做一件事，觀念非常重要，觀念正確，比較容易貫徹，事情就比較好辦；觀念錯誤，腦筋轉不過來，做什麼事情都是不行的。事實正是如此，致富是一種思維習慣, 你有富人的思維習慣，你就能夠成為富人，你沒有富人的思維習慣，你就只能是窮人。只有擁有致富的思維方式和行為習慣，你才可能真正致富。
順 勢 死 守 好 過 炒 出 炒 入
近 期 最 明 顯 的 轉 變 ， 是 美 元 轉 強 ， 這 一 點 令 自 己 相 當 不 舒 服 ， 甚 至 黃 金 長 倉 也 有 點 擔 心 ， 不 過 策 略 一 定 是 死 守 ， 頂 多 短 炒 跑 數 去 幫 補 。
美 元 的 強 勢 ， 應 是 市 場 在 平 淡 倉 ， 因 此 美 股 的 回 升 ， 同 樣 極 可 能 只 是 平 倉 盤 所 帶 動 ， 並 不 是 升 浪 的 開 始 。 港 股 形 勢 當 然 比 美 股 好 ， 可 是 本 地 地 產 股 及 銀 行 股 三 扒 兩 撥 勁 升 甚 多 ， 沒 有 理 由 冒 險 高 追 ， 中 資 股 氣 勢 只 一 般 ， 應 該 有 等 待 的 空 間 。
看 不 透 後 市 之 外 ， 時 近 年 尾 也 是 戰 意 下 降 的 主 因 ， 今 年 幾 上 幾 落 ， 連 場 大 戰 ， 身 心 都 相 當 勞 累 ， 而 且 在 賽 後 悟 出 一 個 道 理 ， 就 是 不 必 過 份 勤 力 ， 掌 握 一 些 大 趨 勢 ， 回 報 反 而 更 好 。 例 如 美 元 及 商 品 在 8 月 尾 後 根 本 是 單 邊 市 ， 只 不 過 順 勢 而 行 是 知 易 行 難 而 已 。 近 來 死 守 黃 金 好 倉 ， 便 是 一 個 策 略 上 的 調 節 。
1. Sub primes
2. Oil prices
3. credit crunches
4. Carry trade
我老曹1968年入行，當年並冇走勢分析學，因此最先學嘅係基礎分析，到1971年才學走勢分析，經常發現基本因素與走勢之間嘅矛盾，當年有一位惠嘉證券公司資深分析員（可能佢已忘記我老曹，就係今天獅球嘜花生油公司嘅老闆）。當年請教佢，佢講咗一句話影響我老曹一生。佢話，一旦兩者有矛盾，短期睇走勢長期睇基本分析，最終走勢必臣服於基本分析。就係呢句話，1973年1 月我老曹同林森池兄响人人睇好港股時夠膽睇淡，夠膽同當年老闆持相反意見。理由係雖然勢好，但基本因素卻淡。今年9月金價係勢淡，但基本因素好！近年响公開場合我老曹過分強調走勢，極少強調基本因素。近年分析員大部分都係學走勢分析出身而非學基本分析。結果人人都學曉花拳綉腿缺乏基礎分析做後盾，功夫唔得扎實（一膽、二力、三功夫；打交最先要膽大、力大，最後才講功夫）。
從經濟學角度上講，資產泡沫嘅形成係一種經濟失衡現象。從一般均衡穩定狀態，進入非平穩性向上偏移。呢種偏移現象漸漸演變成一種期望，由於預期價格繼續向上偏移而引發投機行為，吸引投機者加入，令價格出現更急速上升，價格攀升趨勢帶來更高嘅預期，更多買主加入，形成自我實現嘅正反饋過程。最後因過度投機而將價格推向極端，無法再兌現買家嘅預期後，往往出現急劇變化由升轉跌，令唔少投機者資金被套牢，就係泡沫爆破期。
資產泡沫出現嘅客觀環境係通貨膨脹（流通貨幣急升）而引發資產價格上升，令均衡穩定狀態嘅價格遭受破壞，過多貨幣追逐供應不足嘅商品，如唔及時制止（例如將利率提升至CPI增長率之上2厘，令流通貨幣返回金融機制），便會引發理性預期──期望價格進一步上升，繼而吸引投機者加入，漸漸成為非理性預期，引發資產泡沫。一旦出現資產泡沫，便好難逃出Boom & Bust命運.
We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortunetellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."- Warren Buffett
Peregrine Falcon = Psychology Focus
Devise my own strategy = Hong Arts of War King = HAWK
Do not be influence my noises
Turtle Trader = mechanical trading method
Do not try to be something you cannot do
be realistic
nobody can predict the future, nobody know what will happen tomorrow- John Henry
focus on my strength
focus on option
don't predict future, don't gamble, only win, don't guess, go for sure win
1. soccer bet draw sure win
2.fundamentals investing sure win
3.mechanical trading sure win
4.trend following on option sure win
No Second Best
trade with my own strategy - the strategy should be simple and easy to execute.
Pound on mistakes of mass investors.
Pound on their weaknesses of fear and greed.
my enemy: mass investors.
think like a hedge Fund, my opponents are the mass investors.
I am the hedge fund, I am Soros.
become like puntfast.
use my very own indicators, simple and easy and not lagging indicators must be one step ahead of other.
Be a contrarian.
do the opposite of the mass investors.
must try very hard to understand the psychology of mass investors.
Think like a hedge funds and act like a hedge funds.
mix with mass investors to understand their pyschologloy.
hedge funds are up again the mass investors; Hedge funds try to mislead the mass investors.
Refelxvicity= market has mismatch info; mass investors make mistakes, be an opportunities and wait to pound on their mistakes.
If index cannot break resistance for 3 consecutive days, is bad sigh, sell. (consult Uncle Lim first.)
Reason: investors exhaust their funds, lacking funds to push up, and correction coming.
How to be 1 step ahead of the Masses?
use
1.MACD 8/17
2.Stochastic 15/3/3
3.RSI 12
How to buy/sell before the masses?
anticipate what BB will do?
use MACD & Guppy.
Invest using Buffett FA method.
How to earn daily expenses?
Don't use lagging indicators/methods.
search for future indicators.
BB methods:
1. accumulate slowly
2. entice Masses to buy
3. push up prices
4. Masses happy at the appreciation of prices - e.g. me, happy over a stock I bought Price shoot up, hold for longer period then lost again.
5. BB presses the price lower.
6. BB still supports the price
7. BB pushes up again
8. BB distributes
Signals:
1. Volume
2. price
3. STI
I am too kind and too mild.
I am too naive, think of using other people, actually had been used by people like Sang, Ho Chee Kong and Ken.
Too soft, let people take advantage.
I don't understand how this world works.
This is an unforgiving world, where strong and bad people win.
let people know you are a bastard and you are tough.
Be a tough and bad man.
Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream
Focus
What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor
How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard
Beliefs
Self-Hypothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich
Focus428000
ZenTurtleRaider
Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet
Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast
Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed
成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念
投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子
日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。
百富寓勤
Destiny
Trading is my destiny; I can kill the market sentiment, bully other traders, destroy other traders financially and be myself.
Markets
The markets including FX markets, options markets and stock market is a fierce battle field. No mercy, no pity, it is tough. But from outside, it looks peaceful and relaxes. Don't be fool by its exterior; it is bloody & uncompromising place.
Short Strategy
1. Trend trading
How to be a Warren Buffett
1. Confidence in one's analysis
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
Long Strategy
1. Use E wave
Feelings
govt and people have different interests, don't always follow govt.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Daily Tasks
1. settle divorce
2. settle home loan
Self Management
Everyday I must do self-management.
Analyze:
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
Betting Strategy
1. Soccer
-bet on one team for draw continually (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
Days Tasks
1. Watch less TV
2.Surf less Porn sites
Times
Times is short
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
二、唔理會宏觀經濟。例如1984年中英聯合聲明「草簽」中講明限制香港政府每年賣地五十公頃到1997年6月30日止。响呢段日子，本港地價、樓價大升，但好多人卻唔曉投資房地產；到1997年7月1日「八萬五」政策出台，更加多人唔識避。2003年9月「孫九招」面世，好多人仍然問後市樓價點睇？
2007年開始，美國有七千七百萬人按年進入六十五歲退休期，佔總人口25％，好多人仍然唔信美股响2007年見頂（一如1990年唔信日股見頂一樣）。
三、泡沫形成初期散戶怕得要死，泡沫維持一段日子後，散戶卻忘記風險。大部分泡沫由形成到爆破通常歷時三年（例如1998年科網股，到2000年3月爆破）。
內地A股由2005年年中開始上升，2007年下半年亦踏入第三年，即係已進入令人擔心時刻。我老曹亦曾犯過呢D錯誤，例如响1973年1月恒指見1200點已睇淡，結果三個月內恒指升上1700點，即再升50％。1974年7月恒指見450點便睇好，但大市再跌多半年，1974年12月跌至 150點才改變方向。太早睇淡或太早睇好都係死罪，Timing is everything。
五、人云亦云，欠缺獨立思考能力，忘記20/80定律（社會上只有20％人口成功）。如果你嘅睇法獲得唔少朋友支持，請放棄。因為贏家永遠係少數。
例如2003年4月有幾多人睇好港股？
2003年9月有幾多人睇好本港房地產？
到2007年第四季有邊個睇淡港股同本港房地產？
經濟同政治唔同，政治係大多數嗰一邊贏，經濟卻相反。摩根士丹尼首席分析員羅奇（Stephen Roach）提出五個肥年之後，全球經濟將面對困難。佢認為，八十年代開始嘅經濟全球化已帶來不平衡，未來（2008年）隨着美國消費者消費力下降，各種有形無形貿易障礙將出現，令1980年起全球出口雙位數增長時代結束；
其中最受影響係亞洲區國家。中國GDP增長將由連續五年雙位數（2007年首九個月 11.5％）下降至未來五年8％，令依家過熱嘅中國經濟進入冷卻期。Victor Niederhoffer最近响《紐約時報》批評中國藝術品天價，令人想起1989年日本人用天價競投梵高嘅《向日葵》油畫及1979年原材料高價時澳洲財團奔達出高價購畫事件。今年中國藝術品以天價出售，係咪出貨訊號放完煙花之後就散場
所有學習弧線（Curve）嘅Trader都知道乜嘢叫做拋物線上升及乜嘢叫做爆炸性上升（Blowup）。上述走勢出現理由係Trader利用大量槓桿去產生，一旦完成爆炸性上升，燦爛便歸於平淡（好似放完煙花之後散場一樣）。
次按危機可以因聯儲局減息一次（或兩次）而消失咩？科網股泡沫爆破後，亦唔係一次或兩次減息可以解決，更何況次按危機樓價可升可跌，主要睇人口增長率及經濟增長率而定。例如日本人口近年增長率接近零，GDP增長率似有若無，便撑唔住過去十七年日本樓價。香港面對 1997年7月亞洲金融風暴兼「八萬五」房屋政策，樓價亦撑唔住；2003年7月中央批准內地人來港自由行；加上2003年9月嘅「孫九招」，本港樓價又再欣欣向榮。美國2007年起進入退休高峰期；加上GDP增長率進入放緩期，美國樓價後市又點睇？ 成功嘅投資由你將雞蛋放响邊度決定。1997年7月係放喺海外；2001年係放喺黃金上；2003年下半年重返香港；呢兩年自然最好集中响國企、紅籌股，未來又如何？
在1929年某日，Old Kennedy（已故美國總統甘迺廸之父）眼見連街上的擦鞋小童也給他股票貼士及談論大市，Old Kennedy暗覺不妙，連擦鞋仔也講股市，於是即時沽貨離場，Old Kennedy因而得以避過1929年10月的美國大股災（The Crash of 1929）。
筆者察覺，過往不少顯示股市到頂的反向指標，近期仿似全部失靈，指標雖然顯示股市到頂，但大市偏偏唔跌！
據著名大炒家BartonBiggs的研究，近年不少投資者及大行皆會採用及研究很多反向指標或到頂指標，因此不少投資者都成為反向指標或到頂專家，最後令到這些指標失效（註：篇幅有限，大家不妨想想到頂或反向指標的真正含義）。
Biggs進一步指出，在巨型大牛市中，預測到頂的指標一般皆是過早發出訊號，有些時可能預早一年已發訊號叫離場，無形中令這些訊號失效！故此，在現今市況，大家雖然應留意一些到頂訊號，但不宜過早跳車，以防太早沽貨離場。炒股仔要識落車
4P
Perseverance
Turn Bad Luck Into Good
Lucky people employ various psychological techniques to cope with, and even thrive upon, the ill fortune that comes their way. For example, they spontaneously imagine how things could have been worse, they don't dwell on the ill fortune, and they take control of the situation.
Proactive
Maximize Chance Opportunities
Lucky people are skilled at creating, noticing, and acting upon chance opportunities. They do this in various ways, which include building and maintaining a strong network, adopting a relaxed attitude to life, and being open to new experiences.
Psychics
Listen to Your Lucky Hunches
Lucky people make effective decisions by listening to their intuition and gut feelings. They also take steps to actively boost their intuitive abilities -- for example, by meditating and clearing their mind of other thoughts.
Listen to your gut instincts - they are normally right
Positive
Expect Good Fortune
Lucky people are certain that the future will be bright. Over time, that expectation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it helps lucky people persist in the face of failure and positively shapes their interactions with other people.
Be open to new experiences and breaking your normal routine
Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well
Visualise yourself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call. Luck is very often a self-fulfilling prophecy
F Focus
Hawk Hong Art of War Knowledge
Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Focus
Office
Wake up early – reach office by 8am
Talk Less
What are my benefits?
Plan for my future.
Larry Ellison: I try to think things through. I try to always ask two questions about my personal policies in life. Are they fair, are they morally correct? And do they work? I try to reason things back to first principles. I try to think about things, and come to conclusions and make my own decisions. If anyone has a logical criticism and can explain to me why what I'm doing is wrong, and they can convince me, I'll change. If they have good reasons, I'll just alter my behaviour. I love it when people point out when I'm wrong, and explain to me why I'm wrong. That's great. I don't want to be wrong. I would love to be right. If I am wrong, I love it when people stop me.
2008年投資格言：
一、揀股唔炒市，指數升降並唔重要。例如11月至今恒指回落15％，唔少科技股上升25-50％。
二、找尋增長股，即業績轉虧為盈或純利大幅上升股份，最好係營業額上升、邊際利潤擴闊（毛利率上升）股份。
三、唔好感情用事，對住倒瀉牛奶，喊係冇用，買入後如虧損15％立即止蝕，喊都無謂；買入後上升20％或以上便滋油淡定，等候日後收割，千萬不可賺唔切。
四、任何股價都唔會直線上升，一定係曲折線條，例如浪2回落係浪1升幅三分一到二分一，浪3再升；浪4回落浪3升幅三分一到二分一；浪5上升完畢後獲利回吐。跌市往往係A、B、C，即A浪下跌，B浪反彈A浪跌幅三分一到二分一，然後再跌，因此唔好浪A便入市，應浪C完成才入市。
五、展望明年股市肯定大幅波動，相信聯儲局仍會減息兩次或以上，明年年中利率極有可能見3.5厘。繼續避開同次按有關行業及國企、紅籌股，睇好內需股同科技股。
投資唔係跟大隊須獨立思考
投資唔係賺取10％或20％回報，而係找尋可以改變你一生項目；投資目的唔係保本，而係追求高增長，記住唔係低增長，而係高增長，例如每年30％升幅。投資唔係買昨天的藍籌股，而係買明日藍籌股。邊D先至係明日藍籌股？便考眼光。投資唔係跟大隊，而係獨立思考。2000年人人睇好科網股，今年10月人人推介國企、紅籌股，你又點睇？展望2008年大藍籌股純利增幅肯定放緩；反之，科技股純利又到上升期。
投資唔使大學教授水準，小學畢業已足夠（Keep it simple it）. 你聽過LA Gear嗎？八十年代股價曾上升819％。你聽過Conair嗎？九十年代亦曾上升1000％。香港好多二線股名字你可能未聽過，但卻可能勁升（亦有可能勁跌，如睇錯便蝕15％離場，唔傷荷包）。
請坐低飲杯茶、食個包，好好思考2008年應睇好乜？
新一年代表新趨勢浮現，亦代表舊趨勢可能結束。例如廣船及南方航空股價經爆炸性上升後，已唔再值得持有，一旦股價由高峰回落20％以上便止蝕離場。
追隨趨勢，尋找D純利進入高增長期股份，才係最佳投資策略。股市內悲劇係大部分投資者皆忽略趨勢，只睇走勢，往往賺粒糖、輸間廠。
2008年做個trend-rider及earning-seeker。祝各位聖誕節時pick the right stock。
唔好去人多地方，平安夜應平平安安地度過，一如股市，人多地方唔好去。
股市鐵律：少數人贏錢、大多數人輸錢
1 - Research clearly demonstrates that "when broad market indexes go above P/E ratios of 23 or so, investors essentially get no return over the next 10 years".
2 - An important study "showed that an inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) is the single most reliable predictor of recessions. Recessions appear roughly a year after an inverted yield curve."
3 - The Investment Matrix Revelations :
"There are clear patterns of returns relating to the secular bull and secular bear cycles. (....) Once the new period starts, it tends to persist for long periods of time. Though the very long-term returns have been positive and near average, investment horizons of 10 years, 20 years, and even longer aren't long enough to ensure positive or acceptable returns. (...) the charts clearly show the most important thing you can do to positively affect your long-term returns is to begin investing in times of low P/E ratios".
4 - Technical analysis doesn't work :
"Mark Finn of Vantage Consulting has spent years analyzing trading systems. (...) He has a team of certifiable mathematical geniuses working for him. They have access to the best pattern recognition software available. They have run price data through every conceivable program and come away with this conclusion: Past performance is not indicative of future results."
5 - Investors behaving badly :
Gavin McQuill of the Financial Research Corporation (...) focused on six emotions that cause investors to make mistakes.
1. Fear of regret - an inability to accept you've made a wrong decision, which leads to holding onto losers too long or selling winners too soon.
2. Myopic loss aversion - a fear of losing money and the subsequent inability to withstand short-term events and maintain a long-term perspective.
3. Cognitive dissonance - the inability to change your opinion after new evidence contradicts your baseline assumption.
4. Overconfidence - people's tendency to overestimate their abilities relative to individuals possessing greater expertise.
5. Anchoring - people's tendency to give too much credence to their most recent experience and to show reluctance to adjust their current beliefs.
6. Representativeness - the tendency of people to see patterns within random events.
6 - Value Value Value
"Throughout this book, I show how value wins time and again. We have also seen numerous studies that show that buying deep value for the long term is a strategy that works in all types of markets. It is the only thing that works for stocks in a secular bear market cycle.
The essence of Bull's Eye Investing is quite simple. Target your investments to where the market is going, not to where it has been. Steady, stable, sure. Buying something that is undervalued, perhaps grossly undervalued, and waiting for the value to be seen by others is the way to real returns. Buying what everyone else is buying, after it has already risen in value, is why most investors simply do poorly."
Stay away from the crowd, and buy things at a big discount."Michael Price
Focus on my interests. Never affect by outside forces.
Every times, others call me, they want something’s from me, every times I call others, and I want something’s from them.
Every body has their ulterior motives.
Keep a humble exterior, keep a low profile always, keep clam all the times. Silent is golden only apply to when I don’t want others to know too much, when it is times to speak for my right, never hesitate to speak out.
This article was compiled by Yang Huiwen for the Straits Times yesterday. Even though I do not act much on analysts' advice and sometimes even prefer to take a contrarian approach, it is always worthwhile to take note of what these big fund houses are focusing on.
In one of the chapters in your book, you mentioned that none of the popular technical analysis tools have consistently outperformed the stock market over the years – and that the only proven methods to outperform the market have been buying values or trend-following. My own impression (although I have not done any exhaustive research) is that some methods out there do work, such as the Dow Theory, IBD’s CANSLIM method, and the intermediate buy or sell signals from Lowry’s reports. Have you seen any research on these methods and if so, do you regard them as a subgroup of trend-following systems?
What makes a technical trading system work is that it has risk-management. All technical trading systems will work if they have good risk management and if you have the discipline to sell your losers and let your winners ride. So if you manage to catch the trend, it works. There are people that can look at different signals in different markets and they can read it – and they are drawing inferences and it makes sense to them. But most people looking at the same data can’t do it.
So a lot of it is an art form?
Yes, if some technical trading system was proven to work and everybody realizes it, then the next day it would stop working.
While share price growth is set to slow down amid volatility, valuations are still attractive.
Next year, 2008, Singaporeans are getting their bonus and pay rise, BB are planning way to transfer the money to their pockets, it will spread good news to entice retail investors to buy shares, BB will target sectors that still have good selling stories, like marine, banking and construction. So expect STI to ramp up all the way till Chinese New Year, may be will break 3900-4100 points then it will drop back to 3400 in Feb and further down to 3000 by May 2008.
Don’t be suckers and buy shares and property at wrong times, when the BB know negative news and start selling to us. BB have advance news, unlike us, BB will try to unload their assets to us when they anticipate down trend is coming.
Keen to be Businessman, I can buy shares of listed companies, it is the same. Keen to be landlord, I can buy listed property firms. I can collect dividends like collect rentals, because owning a property must pay additional maintenance costs and high income tax as much as 25%.
其疾如風、其徐如林、侵掠如火、不動如山
Every trader should study his own psychology and priorities before he starts committing time and money into trading.
If you don’t take care of yourself, in this world nobody will.
Just focus on having a peaceful life, avoid all unnecessary hassle.
My previous friends and relatives were all close to me for certain benefits and freebies.
Just Focus on making more money from investment and take care of my health (meditation).
Must have the ability to spot danger sighs and able to read characters. Avoid the danger before making any commitment.
When I am poor and sick, nobody help me, must be able to take care of myself financially and physically.
Must devise an investment method that suits my personality.
Be more like a writer, don’t get involve, just observe and write down your thought. Analyze what I see and written down and then act accordingly.
Never be a follower, it is risky.
Silent is Golden. Never tell you investment methods, it should be kept as an absolute secret.
Be independent, never depend on others, learn from my own mistakes, I was too dependent on my mother, just like my mother now, thus become an ineffectual person, I must change.
Don’t give other too much respect; they just want to take advantages of you.
I was a fool previously, trusting other opinions.
This is a zero sum game world, either you win or other wins, always be preparing for battle.
Have independent minds; never trust other, like Rockerfeller said to his children.
The conspiracy theory of the world, the mass media and politicians are always giving the wrong messages and news to the mass majority.
Always be a spectator, watch the world around you carefully and observe their actions, learn from their mistakes and pick up their good strategy.
Stay away from the crowd, this will give you time to think calmly, just like Warren Buffett who still live in Omaha.
臺灣大王王永慶說過，做一件事，觀念非常重要，觀念正確，比較容易貫徹，事情就比較好辦；觀念錯誤，腦筋轉不過來，做什麼事情都是不行的。事實正是如此，致富是一種思維習慣, 你有富人的思維習慣，你就能夠成為富人，你沒有富人的思維習慣，你就只能是窮人。只有擁有致富的思維方式和行為習慣，你才可能真正致富。
順 勢 死 守 好 過 炒 出 炒 入
近 期 最 明 顯 的 轉 變 ， 是 美 元 轉 強 ， 這 一 點 令 自 己 相 當 不 舒 服 ， 甚 至 黃 金 長 倉 也 有 點 擔 心 ， 不 過 策 略 一 定 是 死 守 ， 頂 多 短 炒 跑 數 去 幫 補 。
美 元 的 強 勢 ， 應 是 市 場 在 平 淡 倉 ， 因 此 美 股 的 回 升 ， 同 樣 極 可 能 只 是 平 倉 盤 所 帶 動 ， 並 不 是 升 浪 的 開 始 。 港 股 形 勢 當 然 比 美 股 好 ， 可 是 本 地 地 產 股 及 銀 行 股 三 扒 兩 撥 勁 升 甚 多 ， 沒 有 理 由 冒 險 高 追 ， 中 資 股 氣 勢 只 一 般 ， 應 該 有 等 待 的 空 間 。
看 不 透 後 市 之 外 ， 時 近 年 尾 也 是 戰 意 下 降 的 主 因 ， 今 年 幾 上 幾 落 ， 連 場 大 戰 ， 身 心 都 相 當 勞 累 ， 而 且 在 賽 後 悟 出 一 個 道 理 ， 就 是 不 必 過 份 勤 力 ， 掌 握 一 些 大 趨 勢 ， 回 報 反 而 更 好 。 例 如 美 元 及 商 品 在 8 月 尾 後 根 本 是 單 邊 市 ， 只 不 過 順 勢 而 行 是 知 易 行 難 而 已 。 近 來 死 守 黃 金 好 倉 ， 便 是 一 個 策 略 上 的 調 節 。
1. Sub primes
2. Oil prices
3. credit crunches
4. Carry trade
我老曹1968年入行，當年並冇走勢分析學，因此最先學嘅係基礎分析，到1971年才學走勢分析，經常發現基本因素與走勢之間嘅矛盾，當年有一位惠嘉證券公司資深分析員（可能佢已忘記我老曹，就係今天獅球嘜花生油公司嘅老闆）。當年請教佢，佢講咗一句話影響我老曹一生。佢話，一旦兩者有矛盾，短期睇走勢長期睇基本分析，最終走勢必臣服於基本分析。就係呢句話，1973年1 月我老曹同林森池兄响人人睇好港股時夠膽睇淡，夠膽同當年老闆持相反意見。理由係雖然勢好，但基本因素卻淡。今年9月金價係勢淡，但基本因素好！近年响公開場合我老曹過分強調走勢，極少強調基本因素。近年分析員大部分都係學走勢分析出身而非學基本分析。結果人人都學曉花拳綉腿缺乏基礎分析做後盾，功夫唔得扎實（一膽、二力、三功夫；打交最先要膽大、力大，最後才講功夫）。
從經濟學角度上講，資產泡沫嘅形成係一種經濟失衡現象。從一般均衡穩定狀態，進入非平穩性向上偏移。呢種偏移現象漸漸演變成一種期望，由於預期價格繼續向上偏移而引發投機行為，吸引投機者加入，令價格出現更急速上升，價格攀升趨勢帶來更高嘅預期，更多買主加入，形成自我實現嘅正反饋過程。最後因過度投機而將價格推向極端，無法再兌現買家嘅預期後，往往出現急劇變化由升轉跌，令唔少投機者資金被套牢，就係泡沫爆破期。
資產泡沫出現嘅客觀環境係通貨膨脹（流通貨幣急升）而引發資產價格上升，令均衡穩定狀態嘅價格遭受破壞，過多貨幣追逐供應不足嘅商品，如唔及時制止（例如將利率提升至CPI增長率之上2厘，令流通貨幣返回金融機制），便會引發理性預期──期望價格進一步上升，繼而吸引投機者加入，漸漸成為非理性預期，引發資產泡沫。一旦出現資產泡沫，便好難逃出Boom & Bust命運.
We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortunetellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."- Warren Buffett
Peregrine Falcon = Psychology Focus
Devise my own strategy = Hong Arts of War King = HAWK
Do not be influence my noises
Turtle Trader = mechanical trading method
Do not try to be something you cannot do
be realistic
nobody can predict the future, nobody know what will happen tomorrow- John Henry
focus on my strength
focus on option
don't predict future, don't gamble, only win, don't guess, go for sure win
1. soccer bet draw sure win
2.fundamentals investing sure win
3.mechanical trading sure win
4.trend following on option sure win
No Second Best
trade with my own strategy - the strategy should be simple and easy to execute.
Pound on mistakes of mass investors.
Pound on their weaknesses of fear and greed.
my enemy: mass investors.
think like a hedge Fund, my opponents are the mass investors.
I am the hedge fund, I am Soros.
become like puntfast.
use my very own indicators, simple and easy and not lagging indicators must be one step ahead of other.
Be a contrarian.
do the opposite of the mass investors.
must try very hard to understand the psychology of mass investors.
Think like a hedge funds and act like a hedge funds.
mix with mass investors to understand their pyschologloy.
hedge funds are up again the mass investors; Hedge funds try to mislead the mass investors.
Refelxvicity= market has mismatch info; mass investors make mistakes, be an opportunities and wait to pound on their mistakes.
If index cannot break resistance for 3 consecutive days, is bad sigh, sell. (consult Uncle Lim first.)
Reason: investors exhaust their funds, lacking funds to push up, and correction coming.
How to be 1 step ahead of the Masses?
use
1.MACD 8/17
2.Stochastic 15/3/3
3.RSI 12
How to buy/sell before the masses?
anticipate what BB will do?
use MACD & Guppy.
Invest using Buffett FA method.
How to earn daily expenses?
Don't use lagging indicators/methods.
search for future indicators.
BB methods:
1. accumulate slowly
2. entice Masses to buy
3. push up prices
4. Masses happy at the appreciation of prices - e.g. me, happy over a stock I bought Price shoot up, hold for longer period then lost again.
5. BB presses the price lower.
6. BB still supports the price
7. BB pushes up again
8. BB distributes
Signals:
1. Volume
2. price
3. STI
I am too kind and too mild.
I am too naive, think of using other people, actually had been used by people like Sang, Ho Chee Kong and Ken.
Too soft, let people take advantage.
I don't understand how this world works.
This is an unforgiving world, where strong and bad people win.
let people know you are a bastard and you are tough.
Be a tough and bad man.
Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream
Focus
What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor
How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard
Beliefs
Self-Hypothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich
Focus428000
ZenTurtleRaider
Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet
Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast
Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed
成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念
投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子
日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。
百富寓勤
Destiny
Trading is my destiny; I can kill the market sentiment, bully other traders, destroy other traders financially and be myself.
Markets
The markets including FX markets, options markets and stock market is a fierce battle field. No mercy, no pity, it is tough. But from outside, it looks peaceful and relaxes. Don't be fool by its exterior; it is bloody & uncompromising place.
Short Strategy
1. Trend trading
How to be a Warren Buffett
1. Confidence in one's analysis
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
Long Strategy
1. Use E wave
Feelings
govt and people have different interests, don't always follow govt.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Daily Tasks
1. settle divorce
2. settle home loan
Self Management
Everyday I must do self-management.
Analyze:
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
Betting Strategy
1. Soccer
-bet on one team for draw continually (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
Days Tasks
1. Watch less TV
2.Surf less Porn sites
Times
Times is short
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
二、唔理會宏觀經濟。例如1984年中英聯合聲明「草簽」中講明限制香港政府每年賣地五十公頃到1997年6月30日止。响呢段日子，本港地價、樓價大升，但好多人卻唔曉投資房地產；到1997年7月1日「八萬五」政策出台，更加多人唔識避。2003年9月「孫九招」面世，好多人仍然問後市樓價點睇？
2007年開始，美國有七千七百萬人按年進入六十五歲退休期，佔總人口25％，好多人仍然唔信美股响2007年見頂（一如1990年唔信日股見頂一樣）。
三、泡沫形成初期散戶怕得要死，泡沫維持一段日子後，散戶卻忘記風險。大部分泡沫由形成到爆破通常歷時三年（例如1998年科網股，到2000年3月爆破）。
內地A股由2005年年中開始上升，2007年下半年亦踏入第三年，即係已進入令人擔心時刻。我老曹亦曾犯過呢D錯誤，例如响1973年1月恒指見1200點已睇淡，結果三個月內恒指升上1700點，即再升50％。1974年7月恒指見450點便睇好，但大市再跌多半年，1974年12月跌至 150點才改變方向。太早睇淡或太早睇好都係死罪，Timing is everything。
五、人云亦云，欠缺獨立思考能力，忘記20/80定律（社會上只有20％人口成功）。如果你嘅睇法獲得唔少朋友支持，請放棄。因為贏家永遠係少數。
例如2003年4月有幾多人睇好港股？
2003年9月有幾多人睇好本港房地產？
到2007年第四季有邊個睇淡港股同本港房地產？
經濟同政治唔同，政治係大多數嗰一邊贏，經濟卻相反。摩根士丹尼首席分析員羅奇（Stephen Roach）提出五個肥年之後，全球經濟將面對困難。佢認為，八十年代開始嘅經濟全球化已帶來不平衡，未來（2008年）隨着美國消費者消費力下降，各種有形無形貿易障礙將出現，令1980年起全球出口雙位數增長時代結束；
其中最受影響係亞洲區國家。中國GDP增長將由連續五年雙位數（2007年首九個月 11.5％）下降至未來五年8％，令依家過熱嘅中國經濟進入冷卻期。Victor Niederhoffer最近响《紐約時報》批評中國藝術品天價，令人想起1989年日本人用天價競投梵高嘅《向日葵》油畫及1979年原材料高價時澳洲財團奔達出高價購畫事件。今年中國藝術品以天價出售，係咪出貨訊號放完煙花之後就散場
所有學習弧線（Curve）嘅Trader都知道乜嘢叫做拋物線上升及乜嘢叫做爆炸性上升（Blowup）。上述走勢出現理由係Trader利用大量槓桿去產生，一旦完成爆炸性上升，燦爛便歸於平淡（好似放完煙花之後散場一樣）。
次按危機可以因聯儲局減息一次（或兩次）而消失咩？科網股泡沫爆破後，亦唔係一次或兩次減息可以解決，更何況次按危機樓價可升可跌，主要睇人口增長率及經濟增長率而定。例如日本人口近年增長率接近零，GDP增長率似有若無，便撑唔住過去十七年日本樓價。香港面對 1997年7月亞洲金融風暴兼「八萬五」房屋政策，樓價亦撑唔住；2003年7月中央批准內地人來港自由行；加上2003年9月嘅「孫九招」，本港樓價又再欣欣向榮。美國2007年起進入退休高峰期；加上GDP增長率進入放緩期，美國樓價後市又點睇？ 成功嘅投資由你將雞蛋放响邊度決定。1997年7月係放喺海外；2001年係放喺黃金上；2003年下半年重返香港；呢兩年自然最好集中响國企、紅籌股，未來又如何？
在1929年某日，Old Kennedy（已故美國總統甘迺廸之父）眼見連街上的擦鞋小童也給他股票貼士及談論大市，Old Kennedy暗覺不妙，連擦鞋仔也講股市，於是即時沽貨離場，Old Kennedy因而得以避過1929年10月的美國大股災（The Crash of 1929）。
筆者察覺，過往不少顯示股市到頂的反向指標，近期仿似全部失靈，指標雖然顯示股市到頂，但大市偏偏唔跌！
據著名大炒家BartonBiggs的研究，近年不少投資者及大行皆會採用及研究很多反向指標或到頂指標，因此不少投資者都成為反向指標或到頂專家，最後令到這些指標失效（註：篇幅有限，大家不妨想想到頂或反向指標的真正含義）。
Biggs進一步指出，在巨型大牛市中，預測到頂的指標一般皆是過早發出訊號，有些時可能預早一年已發訊號叫離場，無形中令這些訊號失效！故此，在現今市況，大家雖然應留意一些到頂訊號，但不宜過早跳車，以防太早沽貨離場。炒股仔要識落車
4P
Perseverance
Turn Bad Luck Into Good
Lucky people employ various psychological techniques to cope with, and even thrive upon, the ill fortune that comes their way. For example, they spontaneously imagine how things could have been worse, they don't dwell on the ill fortune, and they take control of the situation.
Proactive
Maximize Chance Opportunities
Lucky people are skilled at creating, noticing, and acting upon chance opportunities. They do this in various ways, which include building and maintaining a strong network, adopting a relaxed attitude to life, and being open to new experiences.
Psychics
Listen to Your Lucky Hunches
Lucky people make effective decisions by listening to their intuition and gut feelings. They also take steps to actively boost their intuitive abilities -- for example, by meditating and clearing their mind of other thoughts.
Listen to your gut instincts - they are normally right
Positive
Expect Good Fortune
Lucky people are certain that the future will be bright. Over time, that expectation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it helps lucky people persist in the face of failure and positively shapes their interactions with other people.
Be open to new experiences and breaking your normal routine
Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well
Visualise yourself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call. Luck is very often a self-fulfilling prophecy
F Focus
Hawk Hong Art of War Knowledge
Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Focus
Office
Wake up early – reach office by 8am
Talk Less
Investment strategies
My investing strategy:
1. Focus on only a few stocks
2. Identify a tipping point for each stock (e.g. building a MRT station next to its key property)
3. Buy slowly into any stock (as my timing is usually not good)
4. My investments are long term (This is money I can afford to leave under the pillow for years)
5. Low liquidity is OK (I am a collector and have no intentions of selling early)
6. Have an exit price for each stock (but be prepared to sell when prospects are not as rosy or when the entire market is on a bearish mega trend)
Selection criteria for fundamental stocks (in order of preference):
1. Potential to be a multi bagger (share price can double, triple, etc)
2. NTA is at a significant discount to current market price. NTA to me is cash and Singapore properties. This gives a good margin of safety.
3. Strong cash flow with conservative accounting.
4. It is in a growth industry and has good competitive advantage. The business is scalable. It is not a professional type business.
5. Its products can command a premium. It has a brand name or a unique product. It is not a commodity.
6. It has strong recurring income.
7. Credible management (e.g., no talking up stocks, false promises or creative accounting)
my tikam strategy:
1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.
2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%
3. Top active counters mainly
4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)
5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
Fundamental stocks, multi baggers and a High margin of safety
________________________________
I believe that I cannot achieve financial independence by punting the market as the playing field is not level and the odds are against the investor who is usually at the bottom of the information hierarchy.
To succeed as an investor, one has to look at stocks on the longer-term horizon.... looking for multi baggers. However, in searching for these stocks, the investor knows that he will still always be near the bottom of the information food chain and hence, he needs to have an even higher margin of safety. After all, these are the stocks that he will be holding on to and unlike stocks in the tikam category, if the stocks were to go down, he may want to add to his holdings.
This is because, if he truly believes that these stocks are undervalued and the market pushes these stocks further, these stocks should become even more undervalued and the margin of safety will be even higher by buying these stocks at a much depressed price.
At this point, it is important to clearly differentiate tikam stocks from fundamental stocks. For all my tikam stocks, I have a cut loss position, which is usually around the 10-15% level. For my fundamental stocks, it is not uncommon for me to average down. Hence, it is critical for me to differentiate the tikam stocks from the fundamental stocks.
For fundamental stocks, to achieve this margin of safety, I only like to invest in stocks that have a significant discount to NTA. My definition of NTA is very simple. It is either cash or properties in Singapore. I discount everything else as I have seen so many ways of creative accounting that I have learnt never to simply trust the stated NTA figure. This means that I don't take the NTA numbers from the annual report as gospel truth. Instead, I tear these numbers down so that I know how much cash the company has, how much the company owes and where their properties are. I then make it a point to visit these properties in Singapore.
Of course, having a sound NTA is only part of the picture. More importantly, I must like the industry that they operate and believe that with the right spark, the business will flourish. This is the toughest part of the call as there is much less science here compared to the confirmation of NTA.
Yes, if the share price were to go south, I don't automatically buy more but I will take this as a wake up call to reassess the company. If after this reassessment, I still feel that the company fundamentals have not changed, I will then consider buying more. There are many reasons why investors sell these stocks, as I believe that no matter how big an investor is, there will always be demands to liquidate holdings to put into what may appear to be a better investment.
The market is the sum total of human emotions which interestingly is manic-depressive. When emotions are good, stock prices zoom like there is no tomorrow. When the feeling is bad, it can hit rock bottom and yet there will be no takers. This is the reality of our markets and to be a fundamental investor in Singapore, one has to be able to take the rough and tough of investing and watch one's fundamental stocks get beaten and bruised. One has to have lots of patience and guts as well during these depressive states.
I believe that our market is in depression with regards to Sesdaq stocks where most of my fundamental stocks are. Hence, I continue to collect these stocks. As always, I know that my timing is never good and hence, I have a habit of collecting stocks slowly and I always make sure that I have set aside enough ammo to keep collecting over a long period of time. As such, I am seldom fully vested in terms of fundamental stocks.
Fundamental investing is about multi baggers
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When I started investing over 20 years ago, I did not differentiate fundamental investing from speculating. Whenever I have a profit of 10 to 20%, I will take my profits and run. Sometimes the profit will come in days, sometimes years but whenever I see good profits, I feel good about myself and the cycle repeats itself. Yes, there were also times when I had losses. There were also some years where the losses were more than the profits. But this was investing to me.
As the years progressed, I realized that there was a flaw in the way I invested. In building businesses, we are all looking for scalability. We want to take the risk in the initial stages of building a business but when the business is more stable, we hope that it will then take care of itself and give us good returns year after year without having to take the risks we took in the initial stages of building the business.
This same philosophy should also apply for our investments. When we invest in the early days, we will take risks as the company is likely to be unknown or the management unproven. However, if we hit it right, we should be able to ride the waves with the business. We are looking for a Microsoft or a HP or a Dell. If we identified such a company, then it would be a shame if we simply took the first 20% profit and then ran out. If we ran out, we then have to find another company and start the whole investing cycle again. We start taking all the risks associated with investing in an unknown company.
Yes, it is more interesting digging out the multi baggers of the future, but it will not do your wallet much good if one goes from flower to flower only to taste the bud. True, your ego will be stroked every time you identify the next multi bagger but investing is not about ego. It is about building a nest egg.
Hence, over the years, my philosophy in fundamental investing is one where I will trust my instincts and be willing to sink a significant percentage of my investing capital into just one, two or at the most 3 stocks. After all, there is no point in getting a multi bagger if this is not going to significantly improve one's net worth.
Yes, there is significant risk in putting so much of one's capital in just 3 stocks. But because so much capital is tied in just 3 stocks, you will be very focused on these 3 stocks. If you are right in any one of these, your capital will grow substantially. If you spread it over 10 stocks, even if one stock becomes a 2 bagger, your capital would only have grown 20% assuming that there is no capital gain in the other 9 stocks. More than likely the other 9 stocks will show declines and you will end up with a me too portfolio gain.
It is also true that true fundamental investing is boring. If you are right about your 3 stocks, then you are unlikely to want to change these stocks for many years. The only reason I change any of these stocks will be because the fundamentals have changed or that the margin of safety in these stocks have reduced so much that I don't have the safety anymore. As stated, my margin of safety is that all these stocks must be trading at a significant discount off their NTA for which I only consider cash and Singapore properties.
If someone tells you that it is less risky investing in the fundamental stocks than to tikam or speculate, I don't think that person understands the true nature of fundamental investing. As stated, fundamental investing is for multi baggers. The only way you can get multi baggers is if you hold on to the stock for many years. I have seen a few of my stocks fall over 50% before they return me multi baggers. If you are not able to take this risk, I doubt that you will be able to see multi baggers.
If you tikam and have a policy of cutting losses below 10%, your risks are contained. Hence, my view is that it may be less risky to punt if you have a system in place, than to invest in fundamental stocks as the nature of the stock market is such that stock prices rarely stay put. They go up and down and when they are down, they can go very low down. Can you stomach this risk? Can you watch your stocks get beaten and do nothing or even buy more? If you can, you have the stomach for fundamental investing.
Fundamental investing in a nutshell is investing for multi baggers. It is boring and based on your believe that a company can become the next Microsoft. All other forms of investing to me are speculating, some with a shorter horizon, others a little longer.
I set aside money for fundamental investing and also money for speculating. The money for speculating keeps my adrenaline flowing but I know that I am not going to be financially independent just by speculating. Having speculating money also prevents me from interfering with my longer-term fundamental counters.
Yes, I too am human and this is my way of controlling my emotions of greed and fear over my fundamental investment strategy.
The stock market is nothing more than demand and supply
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We all have a tendency to try to find reasons why a stock goes up or down. Humans created technical analysis and fundamental analysis trying to plant reasons for share price movements. Newspapers & brokers write daily commentaries, which give the impression that they know more than us.
Reality though is that the movement of stocks and shares is based on simple demand and supply. The unique thing about stocks and shares is that the number of stocks in issue is defined and limited. In other words, supply is limited. However, demand for shares though, can be unlimited. This is in sharp contrast to futures where both supply and demand are theoretically unlimited. It is for this reason that I don't play futures, as the strategy for futures is unlikely to be the same for stocks and shares.
What this means is that if supply is sucked up for whatever reason, even though the demand remains the same, the share price is more likely to go up. The supply can be sucked up in a number of ways. If there is strategic investor that keeps mopping up the supply from the open market, the number of shares available will be reduced. If however, the strategic investor takes a placement of new shares (i.e. the company issues new shares), then this is unlikely to affect the number of shares floating around.
If the company buys back its own shares from the open market, the same phenomenon will also happen. The supply will be being sucked up and there will be less shares floating around.
This is why the game of stocks and shares is skewed towards players with big pockets. They can affect the supply more than any typical retail investor. Theoretically, there is no art or science here. Simply a matter of financial muscle to buy up enough shares to reduce the available float. Even the largest counter in SGX is small by US standards and hence, every counter will be under the mercy of the laws of demand and supply.
If we look at the market darling counters of the past, we will notice that these counters usually have a number of funds as shareholders. The funds mop up the number of shares available and this in return, perpetuates the market darling status of these stocks. As stated, once supply is sucked up, even if demand remains the same, the stock price will continue to rise.... even though as we have seen in recent examples, the companies concerned can lack real fundamentals.
If one reflects on the dotcom boom the same thing happened where not only funds were pushing up the share prices, but also listed companies that wanted a part of the action. They too put in their millions in the stock market. Humans then need to try to reason to them why these counters deserve such a premium. During the dotcom days, we were valued at multiples of expenses. This is the folly of our human mind...trying to create a reason for everything. In actual fact, stock prices go up for the simple reason of demand and supply.
This is why there is logic in following where the big money goes. If the big money leaves a stock, regardless of fundamentals or technical, I too will be a seller.
This is also the reason why I don't have a concern investing in a stock with limited float if the company fundamentals are strong. After all, in any stock that I invest, I hope that the share price will go up. If stocks move because of demand and supply, then having a limited supply is really not a bad thing. Of course, if one wants to speculate and exit within days or weeks, then stocks with low liquidity will not appeal to him, as he will find it difficult to exit.
However, if one is looking at a stock for fundamental reasons, there may be good reasons to buy stocks with limited float.
When my stocks go down...
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If it is a tikam stock, I usually cut loss when it drops 10-15%. No ifs, no buts. This is trading. No emotions needed. It was a wrong call and it is time to lick the wound.
If it is a fundamental stock that I am slowly collecting and it is now moving southwards, I usually reassess the entire investment to see if there have been changes in the industry or upcoming events that will change my mind on the stock. Usually, this will not be the case as I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Anyway, at any one time, I am likely to have just 5 fundamental stocks. These usually make up over 80% of my capital. Hence, I look after these stocks like a hawk because one bad mistake can hurt very badly.
When one of my fundamental stocks go down, I am more than likely to average down on this. Yes, I don't average down on tikam stocks and hence, it is very important to me to differentiate one from the other. Recently, I went against my principles and converted a tikam stock into a fundamental stock and averaged down and I bore the consequences of this.
As I know that unloved stocks are usually the fundamental stocks that I like to pick, it is more than likely that the shares will move lower down from my initial purchase. This is why I always buy any fundamental stock very slowly so that I always have backup ammo when needed.
As stated in my earlier posting, I feel that it is much more riskily investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. When one tikams and have set a cut loss position, the most one can lose is the 10-15% cut loss position. With fundamental stocks, if one picks wrongly and average down, it can be a very costly lesson. Hence, I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Take care.
Liquidity and the stock market
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Alchemist, you are absolutely right that I am not bothered about liquidity for my fundamental stocks. In the past, I was. I was influenced by all the literature that I read about the importance of liquidity. ‘Professionals’ write most of these.
What shook my system was when I read about Warren Buffett and he mentioned something like he did not care if the stock market did not open for years. Why would one bother about the ups and downs of the market if one sees fundamental value in a stock?
I also believe that the markets are about demand and supply. If a share is thinly traded and there is not much liquidity around, if one keeps buying and buying a stock, there will eventually be less and less available stock. Even if the rest of the demand remains the same, the share price is likely to go up.
This happens all the time in our markets. When a big name buys into a company, watch the share price. Even more powerful is when he buys from the open market. He basically sucks up available supply.
I don't have that firepower and hence, I do the next best thing. Buy into fundamentally sound companies with not that much liquidity.
I agree that liquidity is important if you want to get out fast. But I have no intention of getting out fast. If I am right in my judgment and the stock does well, other investors will climb in later and will create the liquidity to allow me to liquidate my positions.
The other way of looking at liquidity is to ask yourself what you want in a share price. Well, I am very clear. I want the share price to go up. If a share is very liquid, does it mean that it has a higher chance of going up? No. In fact, if there is heavy trading, there is more likely to be big boys around pushing it one way or the other...depending on their mood. I rather have a stock, which trades in a blue moon, but once it is recognized as an unpolished gem, it shoots to the moon within a few days or months.
In the meantime, I can sleep like a log.
Margin of safety
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I have been reading the works of Benjamin Graham for well over 10 years and it is only recently that I started to understand the true wisdom of his words.
Many stocks have multi bagger potential but only a few have a high margin of safety. Like it or not, most stocks have potential. But with potential comes risk. What Graham instituted is that the stock market is of ups and downs and sometimes stocks are undervalued and sometimes overvalued.
When a stock is undervalued especially when assets support it, it would offer a higher margin of safety. Here is where most investors will bend the truth, as the key is what constitutes a high margin of safety.
I have seen some folks do discounted cash flow projections as if this were a science but really, most CEOs I know tell me that business is so fluid nowadays that no one can forecast more than a year in advance. For investors to try to forecast 10 years in advance, they must know a lot that even the CEOs don't. It may be possible to do DCFs 10 or 20 years ago, as businesses then were more stable. But today's real business world is very dynamic and I cannot understand how DCFs can be used to justify whether a company is undervalued or not.
Then, there are some who confuses margin of safety with potential. If a stock can go up 10 times, then the logic is that it is undervalued. I don't think this is the context in which Graham instituted his margin of safety.
Margin of safety to me is the existing asset backing of the company. Those who know me know that I drill deeper into the assets by only considering cash and Singapore properties as true assets. Reason for this margin of safety is a higher degree of comfort in the event the shares fall further.
When this happens, I usually reassess the existing business to gain confidence that the actual business is not loss making to an extend that the assets are being eaten into. Yes, there are some turnaround situations in which I have invested but these require an even higher margin of safety than the usual fundamental shares that I pick up.
As the Sesdaq has gone south for many years, there are bargains lying around. As such, I have been picking up stocks in which the cash and property components are more than the market capitalization of the company. In other words, the existing profitable businesses all come for free. There are jewels lying around in our markets. Just that these are unpolished and need time to shine.
Patience is a virtue in investing.
Riding your fundamental stocks
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When one's fundamental stocks are running, there is a tendency to take profits and run. My belief however, is that one should look at fundamental stocks different from his tikam stocks. For tikam stocks, if it goes up 20% or so, I would certainly have said thank you.
However, if one picks the right fundamental stocks that have the ability to become multi baggers, then one should not be in any hurry to liquidate the investment. Every stock has a fair value. I will only sell once it is near the fair value.
After all, the stock market is a manic-depressive individual. When it is down, it is really down. When it is up, it goes manic and usually overshoots its fair value.
Moreover, when one sells his stocks that are performing, he has then to search for another stock. Why switch over when your horse is running when you have taken so much time selecting your horse in the first place. With tikam stocks, you may not have spent much time in the selection and hence, it is fair to take a profits too early.
Of course, at the end of the day, your stocks may just be riding a short term trading trend in the market. Here, one has to make a judgment call as to whether it is just a short term trend or that the industry that the businesses is in, is really coming out of the doldrums.
One of the reasons I put most of my money in fundamental stocks is because I know that information dissemination in whatever markets, will never be fair. As George Orwell once said, we are all equal just that, some are more equal than others.
Those in the know can ride the waves. Those not in the know are best identifying fundamental stocks and investing in these rather than identifying the waves as there is a high chance of riding the waves wrongly given that those who create the waves do this for a living and they are clever enough to create waves that look positive only to be distributing to you.
For fundamental investors, we don't need to identify the waves. However, we can ride the waves created by those in the know. Then, it is a matter of knowing when best to get out when the waves get too large...
Accumulation and volume
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If you were running a large fund and wanted to collect a lot of stocks, it is likely that you want to collect slowly and not be noticed. However, sometimes your actions may be noticed and others start buying into the shares, forcing the share price up sharply.
When this happens and you are not in any hurry as you want to get the lowest price possible for your stocks, you are likely to withdraw from buying any more stocks. The volume then dwindles and those who want to ride with you suddenly realize that there is no one else buying and the share price comes under pressure. The share price either goes down or it goes sideways with a dwindling volume.
Those who are there for the ride may get concerned and with each passing day, they get more nervous. These folks are likely to be among the first to sell their shares as they don't want to see their profits turning into losses if the share prices go down further.
When the selling pressure subsides and the price is holding well, the fund may start collecting again and this is then seen as the next wave of buying. The process of share consolidation after a strong run on the shares is a natural human reaction and I don't read too much more into this.
However, if there were heavy selling resulting in heavy volume with the shares drifting downwards, I too will be more concerned. Saying that, after trading in shares for a while, one must be able to have the gut feel to differentiate real volume versus created volume.
In Singapore, brokers and remisiers may not need to pay commissions and hence, theoretically, if they buy 10 mil shares and then sell 10 mil shares, they may pay nothing for these actions. Hence, one should read volume carefully and not assume that the volume you see is always real. Sensing whether the volume is real or not is part of the art of the trading.
Knowing the CEO
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When I was much younger, I always assumed that investors who know the CEOs of the listed companies in which they invest, have an upper hand. After 5 years running SI and knowing many CEOs in the process, I realize that knowing the CEOs is not critical in any investment decision.
All the CEOs I know tell me that their companies are undervalued and how exciting their industries are. If one thinks about it, it is the CEOs job to 'sell' the company to investors. Hence, CEOs are selling their companies every day and I am no different when I market SI features!
If you want confirmation that you have invested in the right company, talking with the CEO of the company is bound to make you feel very good about your investment...
But if we are truly fundamental investors, we should get as objective a view as possible and it may be better for us to talk with the competitors, with the suppliers and anyone connected to the industry in which the company operates. We would certainly get more objective feedback.
I find it more useful to analyze the way the CEO answers Q&A questions. Also, I read every sentence of the Chairman or CEO's statement in the annual report very carefully. Again, the way the sentence is constructed and the use of words may give a good indication as to real message that they want to convey. Web casting is another useful tool as it shows the facial expressions of the CEOs when they talk on the subject and one can sometimes read more from the way they present than from the information that is put across during the web cast. After all, CEOs cannot say anymore than what had been previously reported in the SGXNet announcements.
Sometimes, non-verbal communications give more information than what is articulated directly in words.
Margin of safety and a falling market
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If one invests in stocks when they are near their highs, with a market downturn like what happened yesterday, it can be very nerve wrecking. Hence, my policy has always been to collect stocks when they are unloved. This will provide a wide margin of safety. Rarely do I average up my fundamental stocks as I would have collected enough over the past few months when they are unloved.
However, if the price falls below my average buying price, I am more likely to average down. This is why I always feel that fundamental investors have to take more risk than punters as punters never average down - they sell and make a trading loss and move on. For fundamental investors, if we believe in our selection of fundamental stocks, we are likely to see more value in the stocks when they go down further.
The market is always manic-depressive - it goes through a cycle of over pessimism and over optimism. Herd mentality dictates that it will over exaggerate the ups and downs so that when the market drops, nerves are unsettled and the selling becomes far overdone. Then optimism reappears and the buying becomes overdone.
Fundamental investors should not over react to the manic depressive characteristics of the market. If we still feel bullish about our economy, we should stick to our believe in the stocks that we have selected. However, if we think that the bear is around the corner, we should relook at all our investments. I, for one, am very bullish for the Singapore economy.
Those who know me know that there is another side to me, which is the tikam side. Yes, I have been buying some call warrants yesterday. If the market rises, I am most likely to say thank you and move on. If it falls, I will lick my wounds and move on. This is tikam, which needs an entirely different mindset from fundamental investors.
Are you a fundamental investor or a short-term trader?
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As I spend more time in the markets, I realize that there is a stunning difference between being a fundamental investor as compared to a short-term trader. The only similarity they have is that both want to make money. But in terms of the characteristics of a successful fundamental investor, it is almost the opposite of a short-term trader.
A short-term trader is by nature, impulsive, excitable and adrenaline seeking. He practices cut loss, profit taking and is glued to the trading screens looking for trading & arbitrage opportunities. He feels the energy and sentiments of the market and use this gut feel to trade the market.
A fundamental investor on the other hand is usually a calm, calculated & patient person. He practices averaging down if his stocks go down in price. If it goes up, he will willingly hang on until he feels that the share has been correctly priced. He is not glued to the screen and is happy just to look at the share price at the end of every week.
Both fundamental investor and short-term traders take risk. The short-term trader actually takes less risk than the fundamental investor as the short-term trader practices cut loss if the share price moves downwards. This strategy ensures that he preserves a significant part of his capital even if he makes a wrong move. For the fundamental investor, he is more likely to average down and if the share price keeps going down, his capital can diminish quite quickly.
Before one starts investing in the stock market, it is important to know whether one is a fundamental investor or a short-term trader. Both groups need different skill sets to succeed. Time to monitor stocks is also an important consideration as it is unlikely that one can be a successful trader if one is not full time in the stock market. However, one can be a successful fundamental investor even if one holds on to a full time job.
The key attributes of a fundamental investor is that he must identify the right stocks as he really does not have that much protection when the stocks go down given that he is more likely to average down than to sell his stocks. As such, it is wise for fundamental investors to select stocks that have wide margins of safety, in case something goes wrong with their stock selection. The concept of margin of safety is discussed
Putting all my eggs in only a few baskets
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For my long-term investments, I only have about 5 stocks. For one of these stocks, it currently represents over 50% of my portfolio value.
My rationale is simple. If I diversify too much, even if a stock rises 100%, it may not increase the worth of my portfolio significantly. Of course, it is nice to feel that you have a one bagger. But what good is this if you only feel good and your portfolio worth only increases marginally. My aim in investing is to multiply my net worth and not to feel good. If I wanted to feel good, I will drink my Gin & Tonic. Good thing about investing is that one has only one mission, which is simply to make your money grow as fast you can.
For the stock that represents over 50% of my portfolio value, you can bet that I watch it like a hawk. I look out for announcements on the company and try to understand as much as I can about the industries in which it operates. Good thing about having a few stocks is that you can focus.
As human beings, by nature, we are all risk adverse and when we invest, the natural tendency is to spread our risk all over the place. Sadly, many so-called professionals recommend this spreading of risk approach to their clients.
But to me, if I want to invest properly in the stock market, I must be willing to take risks. I reduce my risk by understanding the companies that I invest in thoroughly. I understand their industries and keep myself updated on what is happening worldwide. I do not reduce my risk by spreading my investments as thin as I would spread butter on a toast.
Another analogy is that of your spouse. You have only one spouse. It was a tough decision when you signed on the dotted line. You are now fully committed and will take care of your only family. In stocks, we are in a way, allowed to be polygamous and we all know the problems of this. We should be happy already that we can have more than one stock!... Five is already a handful.....any more is a crowd that is really impossible to handle!
Riding the mega trends
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To be able to identify whether it is a bull or bear market is critical to any investor. To me, it is not so important trying to predict whether it is bullish today or not. So long as the general mega trend is bullish, I am comfortable investing.
To identify a mega trend, one has to keep a constant tab on what is happening locally as well as in the world, especially in the US, for us here in Singapore. When there is a correction, which I did not prepare for, I am more than willing to continue riding my stocks if the general trend of the market is still bullish.
In a bear market, I have a tendency of just keeping cash in the bank and playing the put warrants. This keeps my mind active and yet keeps my ammo ready when I smell an upturn in the mega trend.
Right now, I am almost fully invested as I feel that the bull has some more room to run. But as soon as I feel that the mega trend has turned negative, I will make no hesitation to liquidate most of my holdings, including my fundamental stocks.
Even as fundamental investors, we must realize that it is fruitless fighting against a mega trend. At best, the share price of our fundamental stock will remain stagnant. At worse, it can drop significantly in value. Hence, it is logical in a bear market not to be holding on even to fundamentally sound stocks given the risk, reward ratio.
The call as to whether we are in a bear or bull market is equally as important to a fundamental investor as to a speculator.
Worry is good, but not excessive
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Investing is risky. Don't let anyone fool you otherwise. With risk comes worry. If you are not worrying about your investments, it is likely that you are not investing enough of your capital. If you are not investing enough, whether your investments go up or down, really makes very little difference to your net worth. Yes, it will boost your ego when you have a stock that goes up 100% but as stated, investing is not about ego or feeling good, it is about multiplying your net worth.
In the past, I believed that one should only invest what one is willing to lose. But honestly, which one of us is willing to lose any part of our money? None of us should have any money, which we are willing to lose....,otherwise, give the money to me! We invest to win and we should invest sufficiently to make a difference to our net worth. Otherwise, investing is more like a game rather than a commitment. If one is committed enough, you can bet that he will spend sufficient time with his investments.
Of course, if one is just starting out, better to test water first and investing in our younger years is more like an education. However, as we age gracefully, investing should be something we take very seriously and passionately to prepare us for the future when we will no longer be so employable.
When I am too heavy in a stock position that it starts to affect my sleep, then I feel that I have gone over the limit and the degree of worry is too excessive. Humans should not be deprived of sleep as this will eventually affect our mental well being, which in turn may affect our alertness and we can eventually make mistakes in our investments. As such, when I lose sleep over an investment, I know that I am better liquidating my position regardless of whether the trade is profitable or not.
Everyone has his limits and we should know our own limits. For me, when I start losing sleep, I have reached my threshold and will act accordingly.
Use margin wisely
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When I formed SI 4 years ago, I did not know much about margin and the general consensus then and even today, is that margin is harmful.
However, when I meet up with other business leaders, I realized that many of these folks built up their businesses on margin or borrowed financing. They tell me that margin is a business tool that one needs to overcome & control. It is neither bad nor good. It is how we use margin that is more important. Margin used correctly can accelerate the growth of any company or for that matter, an investment portfolio.
Rather than ignoring the use of margin, I opened up a margin account 8 months ago to 'try' it out. Since then, I have learnt quite a bit more about margin and in the process, I also learnt a bit more about myself.
I learnt that some stocks are non-marginable stocks, i.e. one cannot purchase these stocks using his margin account. Initially I thought that this is a good list of stocks not to buy, given that the brokers must have done their homework.
Later I found out that brokers minimize their risks by having this list of non-marginable stocks. This list of stocks represent stocks that a lot of their margin clients have purchased and brokers do not want to have any more exposure to these stocks than they currently have. This list usually does not include stocks with poor liquidity as brokers do not want the issue of not being able to sell these stocks in the event they need to do so.
The list of non-marginable stocks can vary from broker to broker. Brokers just want to minimize their exposure to these stocks in the event these stocks drop in value. Hence, they do not want too much of their margin capital tied to these stocks.
The other thing I learnt about margin is that not all stocks are valued equally. Brokers have another checklist, which tells them the percentage of the stock price that they will recognize for each and every stock in their margin account. As I play warrants and some of these expire within a year, well, to this broker, such warrants have no value in the margin account...meaning that though I have bought these using the margin account, as far as the broker is concerned, the value of these warrants is zero.
This means that the available margin is reduced as the valuation of the stocks in my margin account is lower. This also means that the likelihood of a margin call is higher as on paper, my margin account is worth less than its actual market value.
When I was playing Star Cruises during the SARS period, I recall that the broker only recognizes 70% of its market value. Which basically means that the margin extended to me will be much less than what I expected.
With the first 2 trades, I lost money and before I knew it, I had a margin call warning. Hence, it is important when you use margin to have sufficient funds set aside in case of margin calls. Fortunately, for me the share price went up and no margin call was made.
Since then, the market has edged upwards and I have multiplied my initial investment through the use of margin. From these months of experience using margin, I can safely say that you need to be an even more disciplined investor if you want to use margin effectively. Margin can evaporate your portfolio if you are not careful.
My 2 basic principles in using margin are:
1. Try not to use more than 50% of the margin extended to you. This way, the likelihood of a margin call is substantially reduced. When you use margin to the fullest and the market goes against you, as it always has a tendency to do, you are likely to receive a margin call and may have to liquidate your positions at 'bargain' prices.
2. Margin accounts are more suitable for tikam stocks than for fundamental stocks. For fundamental stocks, you are more likely to average down and this increases the likelihood for margin calls if the stock goes down further. For tikam stocks, you should have a cut loss strategy and this reduces your risk of margin calls.
Margin is a double-edged sword. Use it well and you can be doubly rewarded. Use it incorrectly, and your capital may perish.
Attributes of a successful investor
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I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:
1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.
To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it.
The experience of running a business to me can only be gained by running one's own business. Some time back, I was running a regional division for IBM and I thought that I had acquired all the skills for running a business when I left IBM. I was dead wrong. Running a division within an MNC does not give one the full picture of what it takes to run a private enterprise.
Believe me that one has another 90% to learn when one gets out into the 'real world'. Without being out in the 'real business world', one may not truly understand what it takes to run a successful private business. Without this understanding, one may not be able to identify issues that a business may face in the future.
Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. Reading the notes in an annual report can sometimes give one a better picture than the headlines.
3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares.
4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
You may find it odd that I say nothing about the ability to identify and rate management integrity. This is because I find all CEOs such good salesmen and saleswoman that I really cannot tell the difference just by talking with them. In fact, the better I know the CEO, the more likely that I will be taken in by their personalities and charm.
Fundamental investing vs. trading
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During the Nov seminar, I spent some time talking about this and want to share it here as well. To me fundamental investing is really about getting the multibaggers - stocks that will multiply many folds in value. Trading on the other hand is about 10-20% gainers and then saying thank you.
Actually, the short-term risk of a fundamental investor is a lot higher as a fundamental investor should be one that is more likely to average down than to cut loss if his share price declines. A trader on the other hand is likely to practice a cut loss position when his shares drop 5 -10% in value. With a cut loss strategy, a trader limits his exposure and keeps the bulk of his ammo available for the next trade.
A fundamental investor will keep researching and researching and this can be boring. But this is the basis of fundamental investing - patience with researching and researching. A trader usually relies on technical analysis, trading tools or simply gut feel.
The gain for a fundamental investor is usually painfully slow but steady. A trader can come in and out of positions within minutes. His life is fast, exciting but erratic as he often loses as well as gains. A good trader is one who losses less but gains more.
A fundamental investor usually keeps his stocks for years. A trader on the other hand is more likely to close his position within seconds, minutes or intraday.
Both fundamental investor and trader need to monitor their positions. However, the fundamental investor is more likely to monitor end of day prices but a trader is one that has to be glued to his monitor.
For folks like me, on some days, I am a trader. On others, I am a fundamental investor. But one thing has to be clear. When I am trading, I don't intend to keep the stock for long. It is paramount to me to be able to know which stock is for trading and which stock is for fundamental investing.
Moving a trading stock to become a fundamental stock because it has lost its value, is asking for trouble. Hence, before one trades or invests, one has to be very clear what the objective is, as the strategies for trading may be very different from those of investing. Good night.
Valuation of stocks
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Surprisingly, for something so important as stock valuation, there can be so many different models. Sadly, many times, I see the application of the various forms of valuation as a means to justify a share price.
The most common form is of course that of price earnings or PE ratio. However, as earnings are really an accounting figure, one cannot just take this as gospel truth. One should always break down what constitutes profits as there are many ways to generate profits. True repeatable profits are usually operational profits.
Then there is valuation based on assets and again, one has to break down the assets as here again, there are so many definitions of assets - some real, some not so real!
Valuation based on future earnings is getting nearer to the grey side. Then there is valuation based on what similar companies are valued, is getting nearer the arts as this assumes that the comparable company is similar to that company - which really is quite rare as companies are usually more different than similar. Then of course, one can compare 'peers' that are listed abroad which is even more dissimilar given that investors may have different risk appetites and the main country in which it operates may be different as well.
I have also seen valuations based on various cash flow models like DCFs that may project cash flow for 10 years. If I can predict the cash flow of SI beyond 1 year, I would be very elated, let alone 10 years in this rather dynamic global business environment that all businesses are in. If I cannot predict the cash flow 1 year ahead, I would be surprise that anyone without the benefit of actually running the company, can do better.
Of course, the most creative way of valuing companies was based on amount of money spent, which was the valuation yardstick of dotcom companies at the peak of the boom. It goes to show that humans are so creative that they will find ways to justify any share price. When this happens, we should be extra careful when we read such reports.
I personally, will stick by the PE and NTA ratios but will then drill down the earnings & NTAs so that I know what constitutes these earnings and NTAs. Any other forms of valuation, I take with a pinch of salt.
Information flow is not level
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FD, I agree. When I was new to the market, I tripled my money within a year and I thought that I was gifted in investing. It was a bull market then. Well, 3 years later, I lost it all as my bets got bigger and bigger. Luck can come but luck can go just as quickly.
You can do all the research you want but your research will be based on available information. Information flow is not level. Running a business is not like turning the TOTO wheel and when the ball drops, everyone is told the number immediately. In a business, before deals can be made, many people have to be in the know....such as lawyers, business partners, suppliers, PR consultants, etc. Hence, even before a deal can be announced, many are already in the know. As investors, we must realize that there is this deficiency in the market.
This is why if you are a typical punter, it is likely that you will be among the last to know. Your chances of success are unlikely to be more than 50%.
As a long-term investor, you stand a much better chance as you are not dependent on the sudden ups and downs. Put another way, if you believe in the future of a company and invested early, it really does not matter if information flow was not efficient as you will be able to ride the share whether or not the share price went up before the announcement.
Investing successfully requires a combination of experience and foresight. It is very tough to get all these experiences when you are young. I always encourage those who want to be successful in the market to excel in what they are currently doing as every occupation teaches you something in the university of life. Following which, they should try their hand at running businesses. Only after that, should they consider investing as a career as I don't think you can learn the experiences of life by clicking on your keyboard.
Buy on rumors, sell on news
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So many stocks in our exchange are exhibiting this behavior of rising before the news is out and succumbing to profit taking thereafter.
The fact that there are rumors before the actual news suggests that information had been leaking out. In other words, there may be insider activities. However, the way it is reported is as if this is a normal occurrence in our stock market.
In an ideal stock market, of course, this should not happen. But in the real world, it does and everyday we see instances of this happening. However, I feel it is not correct for these instances to be reported as buy on rumors, sell on news. It is as good as saying that there were insider activities and this is OK. It should not be OK to have insider activities before the release of news.
In fact, in the ideal world, whenever this happens, the authorities should be on the lookout for insider activities. But sadly, I don't think that this is the case.
Because there is this gap between those who know and those who don't that I am a believer that the best way to invest in our stock market is to look for fundamentally sound stocks and hold these. With this strategy, it really does not matter if there are insider activities before the release of news because one would have bought the counter way before the leakage of the news.
Are company issued warrants good or bad?
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Thought this is an interesting topic and hence, hijacked it over here.
Vajra, personally, I feel that when company’s issue warrants, they are better off not underpricing or overpricing their warrants.
For example, if the mother share is at $1 and the company issues warrants with exercise price of 20cts, more than likely there will be folks who will convert the warrant. But the company will only get 20cts per warrant converted. The effect is that new shares are created which then dilutes the eps of the mother shares and all the company gets is 20cts.
On the other hand, if the warrant exercise price is at $2, it may be out of the money and no one converts. If this happens, then the company may have to find money somewhere else as warrants are usually issued when the company takes a loan and the concept is that when warrants are converted, whatever the company gets from the conversion of the warrant, will be used to pay off the loan.
Hence, ideally, if company’s issue warrants, the exercise price of these warrants are pegged at a price in which the company feels its share price will be at expiry of the warrants.
If one takes the same example and the company thinks that in 5 years time, its share price will be $1.50, it may do better pricing its warrants at $1.30 or so rather than pegging it at 20cts exercise price. After all, those shareholders who get these free warrants are actually not getting anything free as their shareholdings will be diluted and so will the PE when these warrants are exercised.
The market is Manic Depressive
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Loupan, I have hijacked your posting and will answer it here so that it is easier to locate in the future.
My experience is in line with yours. What I realized was that being too rationale may not be in the best interest of one's financial health. This is why you will notice that I will hold on to my shares and let it run way beyond what I think is fundamentally sound. Reason for this is because the market is manic-depressive in nature.
When it is depressed, it will push your stocks downwards to bargain levels and when it is manic, it will push it up, way beyond levels we would imagine. The manic-depressive mood swings are a reflection of the moods of the common investors. They are greedy and this will push stocks way higher than anyone can imagine. Their fear will push prices to bargain levels and below. To maximize one's return, one has to take into consideration the manic depressive moods that Mr. Market has.
I also believe that our markets are too small to try to apply the full herd instinct theories. As a result, demand and supply become even more important factors for us to understand.
Imagine if everyone were to buy up Lion Teck Chiang. The supply will run out as the demand soaks up all available supply. The price will go up and up. It will then cross the fundamental comfort level that a sensible investor will have. But to a lot of investors, as the price climbs, they get roped in and with this, the price zooms higher and higher and goes beyond what is fundamentally sound.
The herd instinct than takes over the fundamentals. I don't underestimate the power of herd instinct at this stage. But at the back of my mind, I am also aware that illusions will have to end one day and one does not want to carry the baby. Hence, in climbing the mountain, after attaining a comfort level, it is good to continue climbing for a bit more but one certainly does not want to climb to the top as the fall from there is not very pleasant. How far higher to climb is an art I am still trying to master.
The market's mood swings
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Gerrald08, if I knew the market was going to tank the way it did, I too would have sold off everything and bought back later. However, reality is that none of us knew that the market would lose hundreds of points in a matter of days. Those who knew could have been millionaires overnight.
There will be many who will say that they saw it coming. But if they are not millionaires from the last few days, take their statements with a large pinch of salt. With hindsight, we are all millionaires.
If you are like me and cannot predict the mood swings of the market, we have to invest based on our understanding of the future of a business and not that of the market. The market is manic-depressive and has mood swings. I am not good at predicting these mood swings and will never be. Hence, my focus is not to predict the future of the mood swings of the market. I am better at predicting the future of the companies in which I invest.
However, saying that, where I differ from most fundamental investors is that I also like to have a feel of the market in general. Thought I cannot predict the ups and downs and mood swings of the market, I like to hold a long-term view of the market direction. I am still of the opinion that the market uptrend is intact. However, if my view changes on the overall direction of the market, I too will sell my fundamental stocks.
Controlling one's emotion in a falling stock market
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It is a fact of life that markets go up as well as down. When markets go up, everyone is happy. When it goes down, most are very sad and depressed. There is nothing wrong with these feelings of elation and depression as this is how God made us. To be human, we are all made to be emotional.
Successful investors can control their emotions better. As the way we react to market circumstances vary between all of us, each of us has to find our own ways of controlling our emotions.
For me, I control my emotions this way. I split my stocks up into tikam stocks and investment stocks.
For tikam stocks, if I read the market wrongly and I lose 10%, I would cut loss. No ifs, no buts. I simply cut loss. To be a successful trader, you must be discipline. By being discipline, you remove the element of emotions in your trades. It is emotions that will give you a 101 reasons why you should not cut loss. Ignore your emotions. Cut loss and move on.
In trading, you must preserve your capital above everything else. Capital to trading is like bullets to a war. Lose your bullets and no matter how good you are, you are as good as dead without bullets.
For my investment stocks, if the market falls and the stock is now cheaper, I would be inclined to buy even more of these stocks. Herein lies the risk of fundamental investing. You must choose your investment stocks very carefully or else you can lose a lot of money.
In fact, I always tell people that it is more risky investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. After all, if you are disciplined in your trading and stick rigidly to a 10% cut loss strategy, the maximum you can lose is 10% of your capital. If you invest wrongly in a fundamental stock and keep averaging down (buying more stocks at a lower price), you can lose your pants if the shares keep falling all the time.
The key to reducing your risk in fundamental investing is to define your margin of safety very careful.
If you define your margin of safety correctly, you are putting in place a mechanism to control your emotions, even in a falling market. If you define this correctly, you can sleep well as you know that solid assets underpin your fundamental investments. This is why during the last few days, I have been adding to my fundamental stocks and I continue to sleep well.
Surviving a market downturn
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Firstly, one must make an educated guess as to whether the market downturn is the start of a bear market or just a hiccup in a bull market.
To me, if fundamentals remain strong and there is nothing major that is wrong with the world markets, then I will remain bullish. If a bubble starts bursting, then there is something seriously wrong....like the worldwide dotcom bubble of the past.
Many talk about the potential bubble in China....the empty apartments and office buildings and the increasing property market. True that there is growth potential because of the population of China but there is also this risk of a bubble. As everyone is in China, any effect here will have a drastic worldwide effect. If China falters, everyone will feel it. Also falling demand will result in falling commodity prices, which may be good for some industries, but for others, it may suck their growth away. This is something that I will continue to keep an eye on. However, even if this were a bubble, it will take time to develop and hence, I do not see any immediate concern yet.
As a result, I remain very bullish on the stock market and have been adding to my positions.
The other reasons why I can remain calm in a downturn are because:
1. I don't invest in the latest concept stocks like China stocks in the weeks preceding the downturn. Yes, I tikam these stocks but as I am just trading in these stocks, I have a clear-cut loss strategy. In any market downturn, I will cut loss. No ifs, no buts. This is the key to profitable trading - Discipline.
2. Although I have margin accounts, even though I occasionally use margin, I use these sparingly. If you are close to maxing your margin account, in any significant downturn, you are likely to be hit by margin calls. In a market downturn, if you have to sell your positions because of these calls, these sales are likely to be at your disadvantage. Hence, use margin sparingly.
3. I always have some available cash for such market downturns as there are buying opportunities during these times. Worse thing is that one does not have ammo to buy when he feels strongly that the market is still bullish but is in a correction phase.
Of course, at the end of the day, the most important decision to make is whether the downturn is the start of a bear market or just a correction in a bull market. If it is a bear, do not get me wrong. I will sell everything. Yes, everything, including my fundamental stocks.
However, in this case, I am still very bullish and continue to buy. Take care folks.
Strong hands & weak hands
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Money drives our stock market. If you have lots of money, you have the ability to encourage prices to move the direction you want. After all, the market is about supply and demand and if you have the money to suck up the available supply, the share price is more likely to rise. Strong hands are people with money.
On top of money, strong hands usually have patience. If strong hands want to buy, they usually don't like to have too many passengers on board. Hence, before they buy, it is more likely that they will want to push the shares lower. As the shares go lower, those with poor holding power will start wondering whether they should cut loss.
Those with poor holding power are called weak hands. When the share price drops 10-20%, weak hands are likely to sell to the strong hands. If the price falls further by 30-40%, those weak hands that have been holding will soon have weak legs as well and they are even more likely to sell.
These weak hands then lose money and start licking their wounds. If the strong hands are keen on the stock, you can bet that the strong hands were buying from the weak hands during this downturn.
When the strong hands have collected enough, they use their financial might to buy up whatever shares the sellers have left. As the supply of stocks dry up, the share price is most likely to escalate upwards very quickly.
The weak hands that sold at a loss will then start regretting their decision to cut loss. Some will start buying back at much higher levels. Others, will buy at even higher levels as they are then afraid of missing the boat. What many of the weak hands may not know is that the strong hands are now distributing back to them.
When the distribution is completed, the volume for the shares may dwindle significantly. Market interest in the stock dies down. The stock price slowly edges downwards, leaving the weak hands to hold on to the baby.
Sometimes, the strong hands will help the market downwards by shorting the shares and making on the downward path as well. Strong hands may even repeat the cycle again and make on the way up and on the way down.
When you invest in the stock market, it is always useful to know what kind of hand you have. If you have weak hands like most retail investors, know that there are usually strong hands around and you have to be extra careful as to how you read a stock direction as the involvement of strong hands can affect the stock chart.
Hence, it is important to take your time to identify your fundamental stocks. Ideally, you have a good margin of safety such that if these shares fall in value, you have the stomach to hold on to the stocks or even buy more by averaging down.
Of course, if the fundamentals of the stock change, it is a different matter. In such circumstances, I too may be a seller. But if the fundamentals remain unchanged, be prepared to hold on or buy more. Fundamental investing is OK if you do not have strong hands....but you must certainly not have a weak heart.
Gut feel & neural networks
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There is a proliferation of neural network software’s that claim to be able to predict stock market movements by either mapping existing stock patterns with chart patterns from the past or extrapolating charts. As human beings, we are always trying to explain stock market movements and find tools to predict the future.
What most of us don't realize is that we all have a very powerful brain that collates conscious and subconscious data and information which is far more powerful than the most powerful neural networks, yet, most of us do not trust what we are blessed with. Our brain is more powerful than the most powerful machines and more dependable than our cars.
As we don't understand the full powers of our brain, we don't trust what it is telling us. Our brain collates information and presents it as gut feel. Gut feel consolidates all the information that passes through our 5 senses and taints it with a little bit of emotions and past experiences.
Most of the information that passes through our 5 senses is actually subconscious rather than conscious. For example, you may see a pretty girl walking past and this is remembered in your conscious mind. But in the background, there may be someone walking a dog and a bird flying past. These are captured in our mind as subscious images.
Logic comes from our analysis of our conscious mind. Gut feel is the sum total of our conscious and subconscious information. When our gut feels talks to us, it is extracting subconscious data, adding it to the conscious data and analyzing these in the background of past experiences. No neural network can come close to the power of our brains yet, in trying to guess the future, most of us do not fully use what is in between our ears.
We should never underestimate the power of gut feel when we invest in stocks and shares. Gut feel is especially important to me when I tikam stocks as time is of the essence and the ability to process conscious and subconscious data quickly can make the difference between a winning and a losing trade.
Developing your own style of investing
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All of us have different personalities, circumstances as well as expectations. To be able to invest successfully, we have to be at one with ourselves. We must firstly understand ourselves. We must understand how we would respond in times of fear and greed.
If we succumb to greed, we are more likely to hold our stocks forever in the hopes that the stocks will continue to rise and rise, even though most of us know that very few stocks will rise forever. We are best to try to learn to control our element of greed or to have a cut loss strategy even for our fundamental stocks.
For those of us who succumb to fear, it is most likely that we would be selling too early in any bull run. We would take our profits early and then see our shares zooming to outer space and regretting our decision to take profits too early. We must learn to overcome this element of fear by not taking profits on our fundamental stocks too early or not be too involved in the market and only viewing our fundamental portfolio every week instead of every minute.
For those of us who have both greed and fear, with hindsight, we will realize that we have greed and fear all at the wrong time. When the stocks are near their peak, our fear prevented us from selling at the peak and we land up carrying our babies. When the stocks are crashing, our greed takes over and we buy even more stocks as the market is crashing.
To overcome our elements of fear and greed, we should have an investment system in place. For those of us who trade, we should have a trading system in place. The systems that you use should be tailored specifically to your circumstances, expectations as well as to the way you handle fear and greed.
I have my own trading and investment systems, which I have shared in this forum but it may not be that applicable to you given that your circumstances and expectations may vary. For me, I can park my money for a long time. However, I have high expectations for my investments and I want to multiply these very quickly. Hence, I am willing to take more risks. Moreover, as I have aged, I have gone through over 20 years of investing and am more able to control my fear and greed.
All of us should develop our own styles of investing (and for that matter, trading) that fit in with our character. Yes, it is good to learn from others how they invest but do bear in mind that everyone's circumstances, expectations and control of fear and greed are different.
Knowing both fundamentals and technical
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Rlin, successful investing requires an in-depth knowledge of how companies are run and how the stock exchange works. To understand how companies are run, there is no substitute for being an employee, to start with.
Working for big companies is also different from working for SMEs. I spent 7 years in IBM, the last 3 years in an executive position. I then spent 2 years heading an SME owned by Australian Jews. I learnt much more about businesses in that 2 years than I did for my entire spell in IBM. But IBM taught me what large companies look for and I have to add that many things are different from SMEs. Only when one is exposed to both will one understand what each looks for and this knowledge is important in investing.
Running SI over the past 6 years have given me insights into the stock market that I would never have got otherwise. Being a member of the SGX securities committee has opened my eyes further into the workings of an exchange. Being close to senior management in Bursa has added more depth to my understanding of other regional stock markets.
Hence, investing is not something that came naturally to me. I have to learn about businesses, stock exchanges on top of being active as a trader and investor.
Mega trends are long-term trends. Yes, I need mega trends to help me decide whether I should be vested in the stock markets as my fundamental stocks depend on a bullish mega trend. However, my entry into my fundamental stocks is partially determined by the technical. Hence, I use both fundamentals and technical for my fundamental stocks.
For my tikam stocks, I use a lot of trading data like Vol Distribution and Quote Movements on top of technical data.
To be an investor/trader, you need to be fluent in both fundamentals as well as technical.
I will be away in Beijing for the next few days as SI starts exploring the China market. Take care.
Companies I avoid
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With smaller companies especially, one has to ensure that the objectives of the management (who are usually the controlling shareholders as well) are in line with those of minority shareholders.
1. Salaries. If management pays themselves high salaries relative to the profits of the company, one has to be extra careful. This is especially the case if the company barely makes a profit but the management takes home healthy salaries. Sadly, it is not possible to know how much actual salary is paid as the current requirement is just to give salary bands rather than actual salaries. A salary band of $500K to $1 mil is really too wide to be that useful. Moreover, on top of salaries, there can be performance shares, bonuses or options which makes the calculations even more difficult.
2. Poor investor communications. These companies keep a very low profile and management rarely gives updates to the minority shareholders. In AGMs, these companies do not take too well to the feedback of the minority shareholders.
However, there are some companies that do this so as not to alert corporate sharks as to the real value of their companies. Hence, one has to sift out the real undervalued stocks from the rest of the stocks in this category.
3. Significant interested party transactions. The company does a lot of transactions with related companies. Some of these companies are co-owned by the majority shareholder. This makes it difficult to gauge the actual profitability of the business as one can buy from a related company at a higher price or at a lower price, depending on what the majority shareholder wants to achieve.
Similarly, I am extra careful if the daughter company is listed rather than the holding company. For example, if the holding company owns a manufacturing plant, it can theoretically lower the price of manufacturing and make the daughter company look very profitable. The manufacturing company on the other hand will chalk up huge losses but as this is unlisted, few will know or care.
Are high volume counters better than low volume counters?
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If you are a trader, you should certainly trade only in high volume counters. Otherwise, you may not be able to exit your positions. This is a fact, which no one can deny.
However, if you are an investor, do you really want to invest in high volume counters? High volume can suggest a few things. Firstly, the counter is well researched as it is well traded. This means that it is unlikely that there are jewels in this company that has not been revealed yet. The counter is likely to be trading at its fair value and if you are looking for bargains, I doubt you will find many in high volume counters.
High volume can also suggest that strong hands are at play together with all the 'funny' hands and all types of hands. I am a believer of supply and demand and when there are so many hands involved, truly, the share price can go either direction depending on what the hands are doing. This puts an investor at the mercy of these hands.
For me, as an investor, I go for counters that no one wants. The trading volume is usually very low as I am looking for jewels and the chances of finding these in a remote island are far better than finding in a crowded place like Singapore. I know that when others find out that there are jewels in this remote island, all the speculators will come and the volumes will then swell. When this happens, it is time to say thank you and move on to identify the next remote island.
Investors should not shy away from low liquidity counters just because these have low trading volumes. The best values and the highest margin of safety can be found in these unloved counters. Good thing too about unloved counters is that there are usually no funny hands around and what you see in the queues is what you get.
However, investors must realize that it can take months or years before these counters get the attention of other investors and speculators and as such, investors must have good holding power to invest in such counters.
20% returns should be achievable
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Decided to answer this private message here so that others can also voice their opinions as well. Nothing better than to hear as many views as possible.
I must admit that a lot of my money is in the stock market. I feel comfortable with this because I spend a lot of my time analyzing and keeping an eye on the stocks that I hold. If I had a full time job elsewhere, I would certainly not recommend putting so much into stocks and shares as I would then not have the time to monitor these stocks.
Successful stock market investing requires a lot of time. Don't belief those who tell you otherwise. Believe me, there is a lot of sweat and tears. The pre requisites will be a sharp, analytical mind as frankly, one is competing against the best brains to make that extra buck. Even better if you have the experience of running your own business and one can put oneself into the shoes of the management and predict what they are likely to do given those circumstances. Also, one has to belief in him as frankly, whenever money is concerned, you can only trust yourself and your judgment.
If one spends quality time analyzing stocks and shares, you should at least have a return of 20% or more. To show what is possible with just $10K, 3 years ago I opened my first margin account. Today, the account is worth over $65K with no borrowings and I did just 3 trades this year. As a margin account is a fully documented account, I intend to share the details when the account reaches $100K. When this has been achieved, I will close the account and liquidate everything to cash to show that the money is real. This is not a demonstration account. The shares that I have in this account are a close reflection of the shares that I hold in my other accounts. There are only 4 stocks in this account.
In the early years of the account, yes, I did use margin as it was not easy to grow $10K. But margin eats both ways and the end of the second trade only left me left with $5K of cash! Fortunately, after the first 2 money losing margin transactions, I learnt how to use margin effectively.
If one does not have so much time to dedicate to stocks and shares, unit trusts and endowment policies may make more sense even though one has to pay the 1% or so of upfront marketing costs.
It is a pity that we don't have a Bershire Hathaway equivalent over here in Singapore and it is my hope that once SI is on a firmer foundation, I intend to look into this. I like the principles of Bershire Hathaway as there are no upfront charges to investors or yearly 'maintenance' fees. I also like the concept of an investing community taken to the next level.
Cutting loss or averaging down
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Wormbunny, in the past, I too tried to practice a cut loss strategy for all my stocks and realized that this does not work for the reasons that you have cited.
Today, I only cut loss on my tikam or speculative stocks if they fall 10% in value since I bought these. These are my short-term trades, may they be intraday or intraweek. These stocks are usually the top 10 most active stocks in that day or week. Hence, there is sufficient volume on both buys and sells queues to run when there is a need to do so. Also, because there is sufficient volume, it is most unlikely that any one player can cause the stock to drop 10% in value so quickly.
For these stocks, if they rise more than 20%, I am out. This way, I need 1 winner to neutralize 2 losing trades (of course, not considering the broking commissions). Most of us are right 50% of the time and hence, this strategy works well for me.
However, for my fundamental stocks, I practice the reverse of cut loss. I actually buy more or average down. Yes, it is a lot more risky investing than tikaming because if you make a mistake and buy a lemon of a fundamental share, you can lose big time as you keep buying and buying when the shares go down in value.
Hence, I spend a lot of time researching every single stock in my fundamental list. Also, I need a large margin of safety in terms of discount to net cash and properties before I park a significant amount of my net worth into these few fundamental stocks.
It is crucial to me to differentiate which of my stocks are my fundamental stocks and which are my tikam stocks as each of these has totally reverse strategies. Do read my investment strategy link below to understand the importance of this differentiation. Take care.
My timing is usually not good
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Rebek, different views make the market what it is today. I love the market. You can play it any, which way you wish. I think you have to find a strategy that fits your personality and of course, your wallet.
Personally, I find it hard to time the market. Hence, I always buy small and then add to my positions. Even if the short-term trend is downwards, it is never easy to know when to sell and when to buy back. Most of the time, I got it wrong in the past and ended up not being able to ride the wave upwards latter as I procrastinate on when to buy back. Hence, now, I just average down. Reason I can do so is because I always start by buying small and have reserves to buy more when the price goes down further.
A common mistake that many investors make is that they think they have perfect timing. They think that the share price will rise the following day after they bought and hence, they use all their available capital to buy as much as they can on that day. I too used to suffer from this delusion of perfect timing. Nowadays, I simply tell myself that my timing is usually poor and hence, I buy slowly and add on to my positions gradually. What I have found is that I can usually buy lower as the months progress.
Having an investment strategy helps us overcome our emotions
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For my fundamental stocks, I find it very important to have a investment strategy that I follow closely. This strategy helps me overcome my emotions of fear and greed.
In the event my fundamental stocks fall in value without any obvious changes to the fundamentals of the stock, the element of fear will result in most of us taking our profits too early. To hold on to these stocks will not be instinctive to most of us. To buy even more stocks would contradict even the more bullish of investors. But, for my fundamental stocks, this is exactly what I would do - buy more.
Hence, it is very important to me that before I identify a stock as being a fundamental stock, I would have gone through the stock fundamentals with a fine comb and ascertain that it has a good margin of safety. If I did not do my homework thoroughly, I would not have the guts to buy more if it continues falling in price. If I am wrong, I can suffer significant financial loss. Hence, I take the issue of identifying a fundamental stock very seriously.
When the stock climbs in value, our element of fear will encourage most of us to take our profits and run. With my fundamental stocks, if the fundamentals remain strong, I would continue holding on to these stocks unless the stock has exceeded my exit price for it. Yes, for every stock, I do have an exit price, which I keep, close to my chest for obvious reasons!
Having an exit price allows me to overcome my element of greed. As the share price races ahead, one can be easily swept by the euphoria and when that happens, one will continually elevate one's exit price. Hence, when one's mind is sound and the external environment peaceful, it is the best time to determine a fair valuation for exit. My exit price is usually already at a premium to the fair market value of the stock.
1. Focus on only a few stocks
2. Identify a tipping point for each stock (e.g. building a MRT station next to its key property)
3. Buy slowly into any stock (as my timing is usually not good)
4. My investments are long term (This is money I can afford to leave under the pillow for years)
5. Low liquidity is OK (I am a collector and have no intentions of selling early)
6. Have an exit price for each stock (but be prepared to sell when prospects are not as rosy or when the entire market is on a bearish mega trend)
Selection criteria for fundamental stocks (in order of preference):
1. Potential to be a multi bagger (share price can double, triple, etc)
2. NTA is at a significant discount to current market price. NTA to me is cash and Singapore properties. This gives a good margin of safety.
3. Strong cash flow with conservative accounting.
4. It is in a growth industry and has good competitive advantage. The business is scalable. It is not a professional type business.
5. Its products can command a premium. It has a brand name or a unique product. It is not a commodity.
6. It has strong recurring income.
7. Credible management (e.g., no talking up stocks, false promises or creative accounting)
my tikam strategy:
1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.
2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%
3. Top active counters mainly
4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)
5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
Fundamental stocks, multi baggers and a High margin of safety
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I believe that I cannot achieve financial independence by punting the market as the playing field is not level and the odds are against the investor who is usually at the bottom of the information hierarchy.
To succeed as an investor, one has to look at stocks on the longer-term horizon.... looking for multi baggers. However, in searching for these stocks, the investor knows that he will still always be near the bottom of the information food chain and hence, he needs to have an even higher margin of safety. After all, these are the stocks that he will be holding on to and unlike stocks in the tikam category, if the stocks were to go down, he may want to add to his holdings.
This is because, if he truly believes that these stocks are undervalued and the market pushes these stocks further, these stocks should become even more undervalued and the margin of safety will be even higher by buying these stocks at a much depressed price.
At this point, it is important to clearly differentiate tikam stocks from fundamental stocks. For all my tikam stocks, I have a cut loss position, which is usually around the 10-15% level. For my fundamental stocks, it is not uncommon for me to average down. Hence, it is critical for me to differentiate the tikam stocks from the fundamental stocks.
For fundamental stocks, to achieve this margin of safety, I only like to invest in stocks that have a significant discount to NTA. My definition of NTA is very simple. It is either cash or properties in Singapore. I discount everything else as I have seen so many ways of creative accounting that I have learnt never to simply trust the stated NTA figure. This means that I don't take the NTA numbers from the annual report as gospel truth. Instead, I tear these numbers down so that I know how much cash the company has, how much the company owes and where their properties are. I then make it a point to visit these properties in Singapore.
Of course, having a sound NTA is only part of the picture. More importantly, I must like the industry that they operate and believe that with the right spark, the business will flourish. This is the toughest part of the call as there is much less science here compared to the confirmation of NTA.
Yes, if the share price were to go south, I don't automatically buy more but I will take this as a wake up call to reassess the company. If after this reassessment, I still feel that the company fundamentals have not changed, I will then consider buying more. There are many reasons why investors sell these stocks, as I believe that no matter how big an investor is, there will always be demands to liquidate holdings to put into what may appear to be a better investment.
The market is the sum total of human emotions which interestingly is manic-depressive. When emotions are good, stock prices zoom like there is no tomorrow. When the feeling is bad, it can hit rock bottom and yet there will be no takers. This is the reality of our markets and to be a fundamental investor in Singapore, one has to be able to take the rough and tough of investing and watch one's fundamental stocks get beaten and bruised. One has to have lots of patience and guts as well during these depressive states.
I believe that our market is in depression with regards to Sesdaq stocks where most of my fundamental stocks are. Hence, I continue to collect these stocks. As always, I know that my timing is never good and hence, I have a habit of collecting stocks slowly and I always make sure that I have set aside enough ammo to keep collecting over a long period of time. As such, I am seldom fully vested in terms of fundamental stocks.
Fundamental investing is about multi baggers
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When I started investing over 20 years ago, I did not differentiate fundamental investing from speculating. Whenever I have a profit of 10 to 20%, I will take my profits and run. Sometimes the profit will come in days, sometimes years but whenever I see good profits, I feel good about myself and the cycle repeats itself. Yes, there were also times when I had losses. There were also some years where the losses were more than the profits. But this was investing to me.
As the years progressed, I realized that there was a flaw in the way I invested. In building businesses, we are all looking for scalability. We want to take the risk in the initial stages of building a business but when the business is more stable, we hope that it will then take care of itself and give us good returns year after year without having to take the risks we took in the initial stages of building the business.
This same philosophy should also apply for our investments. When we invest in the early days, we will take risks as the company is likely to be unknown or the management unproven. However, if we hit it right, we should be able to ride the waves with the business. We are looking for a Microsoft or a HP or a Dell. If we identified such a company, then it would be a shame if we simply took the first 20% profit and then ran out. If we ran out, we then have to find another company and start the whole investing cycle again. We start taking all the risks associated with investing in an unknown company.
Yes, it is more interesting digging out the multi baggers of the future, but it will not do your wallet much good if one goes from flower to flower only to taste the bud. True, your ego will be stroked every time you identify the next multi bagger but investing is not about ego. It is about building a nest egg.
Hence, over the years, my philosophy in fundamental investing is one where I will trust my instincts and be willing to sink a significant percentage of my investing capital into just one, two or at the most 3 stocks. After all, there is no point in getting a multi bagger if this is not going to significantly improve one's net worth.
Yes, there is significant risk in putting so much of one's capital in just 3 stocks. But because so much capital is tied in just 3 stocks, you will be very focused on these 3 stocks. If you are right in any one of these, your capital will grow substantially. If you spread it over 10 stocks, even if one stock becomes a 2 bagger, your capital would only have grown 20% assuming that there is no capital gain in the other 9 stocks. More than likely the other 9 stocks will show declines and you will end up with a me too portfolio gain.
It is also true that true fundamental investing is boring. If you are right about your 3 stocks, then you are unlikely to want to change these stocks for many years. The only reason I change any of these stocks will be because the fundamentals have changed or that the margin of safety in these stocks have reduced so much that I don't have the safety anymore. As stated, my margin of safety is that all these stocks must be trading at a significant discount off their NTA for which I only consider cash and Singapore properties.
If someone tells you that it is less risky investing in the fundamental stocks than to tikam or speculate, I don't think that person understands the true nature of fundamental investing. As stated, fundamental investing is for multi baggers. The only way you can get multi baggers is if you hold on to the stock for many years. I have seen a few of my stocks fall over 50% before they return me multi baggers. If you are not able to take this risk, I doubt that you will be able to see multi baggers.
If you tikam and have a policy of cutting losses below 10%, your risks are contained. Hence, my view is that it may be less risky to punt if you have a system in place, than to invest in fundamental stocks as the nature of the stock market is such that stock prices rarely stay put. They go up and down and when they are down, they can go very low down. Can you stomach this risk? Can you watch your stocks get beaten and do nothing or even buy more? If you can, you have the stomach for fundamental investing.
Fundamental investing in a nutshell is investing for multi baggers. It is boring and based on your believe that a company can become the next Microsoft. All other forms of investing to me are speculating, some with a shorter horizon, others a little longer.
I set aside money for fundamental investing and also money for speculating. The money for speculating keeps my adrenaline flowing but I know that I am not going to be financially independent just by speculating. Having speculating money also prevents me from interfering with my longer-term fundamental counters.
Yes, I too am human and this is my way of controlling my emotions of greed and fear over my fundamental investment strategy.
The stock market is nothing more than demand and supply
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We all have a tendency to try to find reasons why a stock goes up or down. Humans created technical analysis and fundamental analysis trying to plant reasons for share price movements. Newspapers & brokers write daily commentaries, which give the impression that they know more than us.
Reality though is that the movement of stocks and shares is based on simple demand and supply. The unique thing about stocks and shares is that the number of stocks in issue is defined and limited. In other words, supply is limited. However, demand for shares though, can be unlimited. This is in sharp contrast to futures where both supply and demand are theoretically unlimited. It is for this reason that I don't play futures, as the strategy for futures is unlikely to be the same for stocks and shares.
What this means is that if supply is sucked up for whatever reason, even though the demand remains the same, the share price is more likely to go up. The supply can be sucked up in a number of ways. If there is strategic investor that keeps mopping up the supply from the open market, the number of shares available will be reduced. If however, the strategic investor takes a placement of new shares (i.e. the company issues new shares), then this is unlikely to affect the number of shares floating around.
If the company buys back its own shares from the open market, the same phenomenon will also happen. The supply will be being sucked up and there will be less shares floating around.
This is why the game of stocks and shares is skewed towards players with big pockets. They can affect the supply more than any typical retail investor. Theoretically, there is no art or science here. Simply a matter of financial muscle to buy up enough shares to reduce the available float. Even the largest counter in SGX is small by US standards and hence, every counter will be under the mercy of the laws of demand and supply.
If we look at the market darling counters of the past, we will notice that these counters usually have a number of funds as shareholders. The funds mop up the number of shares available and this in return, perpetuates the market darling status of these stocks. As stated, once supply is sucked up, even if demand remains the same, the stock price will continue to rise.... even though as we have seen in recent examples, the companies concerned can lack real fundamentals.
If one reflects on the dotcom boom the same thing happened where not only funds were pushing up the share prices, but also listed companies that wanted a part of the action. They too put in their millions in the stock market. Humans then need to try to reason to them why these counters deserve such a premium. During the dotcom days, we were valued at multiples of expenses. This is the folly of our human mind...trying to create a reason for everything. In actual fact, stock prices go up for the simple reason of demand and supply.
This is why there is logic in following where the big money goes. If the big money leaves a stock, regardless of fundamentals or technical, I too will be a seller.
This is also the reason why I don't have a concern investing in a stock with limited float if the company fundamentals are strong. After all, in any stock that I invest, I hope that the share price will go up. If stocks move because of demand and supply, then having a limited supply is really not a bad thing. Of course, if one wants to speculate and exit within days or weeks, then stocks with low liquidity will not appeal to him, as he will find it difficult to exit.
However, if one is looking at a stock for fundamental reasons, there may be good reasons to buy stocks with limited float.
When my stocks go down...
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If it is a tikam stock, I usually cut loss when it drops 10-15%. No ifs, no buts. This is trading. No emotions needed. It was a wrong call and it is time to lick the wound.
If it is a fundamental stock that I am slowly collecting and it is now moving southwards, I usually reassess the entire investment to see if there have been changes in the industry or upcoming events that will change my mind on the stock. Usually, this will not be the case as I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Anyway, at any one time, I am likely to have just 5 fundamental stocks. These usually make up over 80% of my capital. Hence, I look after these stocks like a hawk because one bad mistake can hurt very badly.
When one of my fundamental stocks go down, I am more than likely to average down on this. Yes, I don't average down on tikam stocks and hence, it is very important to me to differentiate one from the other. Recently, I went against my principles and converted a tikam stock into a fundamental stock and averaged down and I bore the consequences of this.
As I know that unloved stocks are usually the fundamental stocks that I like to pick, it is more than likely that the shares will move lower down from my initial purchase. This is why I always buy any fundamental stock very slowly so that I always have backup ammo when needed.
As stated in my earlier posting, I feel that it is much more riskily investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. When one tikams and have set a cut loss position, the most one can lose is the 10-15% cut loss position. With fundamental stocks, if one picks wrongly and average down, it can be a very costly lesson. Hence, I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Take care.
Liquidity and the stock market
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Alchemist, you are absolutely right that I am not bothered about liquidity for my fundamental stocks. In the past, I was. I was influenced by all the literature that I read about the importance of liquidity. ‘Professionals’ write most of these.
What shook my system was when I read about Warren Buffett and he mentioned something like he did not care if the stock market did not open for years. Why would one bother about the ups and downs of the market if one sees fundamental value in a stock?
I also believe that the markets are about demand and supply. If a share is thinly traded and there is not much liquidity around, if one keeps buying and buying a stock, there will eventually be less and less available stock. Even if the rest of the demand remains the same, the share price is likely to go up.
This happens all the time in our markets. When a big name buys into a company, watch the share price. Even more powerful is when he buys from the open market. He basically sucks up available supply.
I don't have that firepower and hence, I do the next best thing. Buy into fundamentally sound companies with not that much liquidity.
I agree that liquidity is important if you want to get out fast. But I have no intention of getting out fast. If I am right in my judgment and the stock does well, other investors will climb in later and will create the liquidity to allow me to liquidate my positions.
The other way of looking at liquidity is to ask yourself what you want in a share price. Well, I am very clear. I want the share price to go up. If a share is very liquid, does it mean that it has a higher chance of going up? No. In fact, if there is heavy trading, there is more likely to be big boys around pushing it one way or the other...depending on their mood. I rather have a stock, which trades in a blue moon, but once it is recognized as an unpolished gem, it shoots to the moon within a few days or months.
In the meantime, I can sleep like a log.
Margin of safety
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I have been reading the works of Benjamin Graham for well over 10 years and it is only recently that I started to understand the true wisdom of his words.
Many stocks have multi bagger potential but only a few have a high margin of safety. Like it or not, most stocks have potential. But with potential comes risk. What Graham instituted is that the stock market is of ups and downs and sometimes stocks are undervalued and sometimes overvalued.
When a stock is undervalued especially when assets support it, it would offer a higher margin of safety. Here is where most investors will bend the truth, as the key is what constitutes a high margin of safety.
I have seen some folks do discounted cash flow projections as if this were a science but really, most CEOs I know tell me that business is so fluid nowadays that no one can forecast more than a year in advance. For investors to try to forecast 10 years in advance, they must know a lot that even the CEOs don't. It may be possible to do DCFs 10 or 20 years ago, as businesses then were more stable. But today's real business world is very dynamic and I cannot understand how DCFs can be used to justify whether a company is undervalued or not.
Then, there are some who confuses margin of safety with potential. If a stock can go up 10 times, then the logic is that it is undervalued. I don't think this is the context in which Graham instituted his margin of safety.
Margin of safety to me is the existing asset backing of the company. Those who know me know that I drill deeper into the assets by only considering cash and Singapore properties as true assets. Reason for this margin of safety is a higher degree of comfort in the event the shares fall further.
When this happens, I usually reassess the existing business to gain confidence that the actual business is not loss making to an extend that the assets are being eaten into. Yes, there are some turnaround situations in which I have invested but these require an even higher margin of safety than the usual fundamental shares that I pick up.
As the Sesdaq has gone south for many years, there are bargains lying around. As such, I have been picking up stocks in which the cash and property components are more than the market capitalization of the company. In other words, the existing profitable businesses all come for free. There are jewels lying around in our markets. Just that these are unpolished and need time to shine.
Patience is a virtue in investing.
Riding your fundamental stocks
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When one's fundamental stocks are running, there is a tendency to take profits and run. My belief however, is that one should look at fundamental stocks different from his tikam stocks. For tikam stocks, if it goes up 20% or so, I would certainly have said thank you.
However, if one picks the right fundamental stocks that have the ability to become multi baggers, then one should not be in any hurry to liquidate the investment. Every stock has a fair value. I will only sell once it is near the fair value.
After all, the stock market is a manic-depressive individual. When it is down, it is really down. When it is up, it goes manic and usually overshoots its fair value.
Moreover, when one sells his stocks that are performing, he has then to search for another stock. Why switch over when your horse is running when you have taken so much time selecting your horse in the first place. With tikam stocks, you may not have spent much time in the selection and hence, it is fair to take a profits too early.
Of course, at the end of the day, your stocks may just be riding a short term trading trend in the market. Here, one has to make a judgment call as to whether it is just a short term trend or that the industry that the businesses is in, is really coming out of the doldrums.
One of the reasons I put most of my money in fundamental stocks is because I know that information dissemination in whatever markets, will never be fair. As George Orwell once said, we are all equal just that, some are more equal than others.
Those in the know can ride the waves. Those not in the know are best identifying fundamental stocks and investing in these rather than identifying the waves as there is a high chance of riding the waves wrongly given that those who create the waves do this for a living and they are clever enough to create waves that look positive only to be distributing to you.
For fundamental investors, we don't need to identify the waves. However, we can ride the waves created by those in the know. Then, it is a matter of knowing when best to get out when the waves get too large...
Accumulation and volume
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If you were running a large fund and wanted to collect a lot of stocks, it is likely that you want to collect slowly and not be noticed. However, sometimes your actions may be noticed and others start buying into the shares, forcing the share price up sharply.
When this happens and you are not in any hurry as you want to get the lowest price possible for your stocks, you are likely to withdraw from buying any more stocks. The volume then dwindles and those who want to ride with you suddenly realize that there is no one else buying and the share price comes under pressure. The share price either goes down or it goes sideways with a dwindling volume.
Those who are there for the ride may get concerned and with each passing day, they get more nervous. These folks are likely to be among the first to sell their shares as they don't want to see their profits turning into losses if the share prices go down further.
When the selling pressure subsides and the price is holding well, the fund may start collecting again and this is then seen as the next wave of buying. The process of share consolidation after a strong run on the shares is a natural human reaction and I don't read too much more into this.
However, if there were heavy selling resulting in heavy volume with the shares drifting downwards, I too will be more concerned. Saying that, after trading in shares for a while, one must be able to have the gut feel to differentiate real volume versus created volume.
In Singapore, brokers and remisiers may not need to pay commissions and hence, theoretically, if they buy 10 mil shares and then sell 10 mil shares, they may pay nothing for these actions. Hence, one should read volume carefully and not assume that the volume you see is always real. Sensing whether the volume is real or not is part of the art of the trading.
Knowing the CEO
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When I was much younger, I always assumed that investors who know the CEOs of the listed companies in which they invest, have an upper hand. After 5 years running SI and knowing many CEOs in the process, I realize that knowing the CEOs is not critical in any investment decision.
All the CEOs I know tell me that their companies are undervalued and how exciting their industries are. If one thinks about it, it is the CEOs job to 'sell' the company to investors. Hence, CEOs are selling their companies every day and I am no different when I market SI features!
If you want confirmation that you have invested in the right company, talking with the CEO of the company is bound to make you feel very good about your investment...
But if we are truly fundamental investors, we should get as objective a view as possible and it may be better for us to talk with the competitors, with the suppliers and anyone connected to the industry in which the company operates. We would certainly get more objective feedback.
I find it more useful to analyze the way the CEO answers Q&A questions. Also, I read every sentence of the Chairman or CEO's statement in the annual report very carefully. Again, the way the sentence is constructed and the use of words may give a good indication as to real message that they want to convey. Web casting is another useful tool as it shows the facial expressions of the CEOs when they talk on the subject and one can sometimes read more from the way they present than from the information that is put across during the web cast. After all, CEOs cannot say anymore than what had been previously reported in the SGXNet announcements.
Sometimes, non-verbal communications give more information than what is articulated directly in words.
Margin of safety and a falling market
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If one invests in stocks when they are near their highs, with a market downturn like what happened yesterday, it can be very nerve wrecking. Hence, my policy has always been to collect stocks when they are unloved. This will provide a wide margin of safety. Rarely do I average up my fundamental stocks as I would have collected enough over the past few months when they are unloved.
However, if the price falls below my average buying price, I am more likely to average down. This is why I always feel that fundamental investors have to take more risk than punters as punters never average down - they sell and make a trading loss and move on. For fundamental investors, if we believe in our selection of fundamental stocks, we are likely to see more value in the stocks when they go down further.
The market is always manic-depressive - it goes through a cycle of over pessimism and over optimism. Herd mentality dictates that it will over exaggerate the ups and downs so that when the market drops, nerves are unsettled and the selling becomes far overdone. Then optimism reappears and the buying becomes overdone.
Fundamental investors should not over react to the manic depressive characteristics of the market. If we still feel bullish about our economy, we should stick to our believe in the stocks that we have selected. However, if we think that the bear is around the corner, we should relook at all our investments. I, for one, am very bullish for the Singapore economy.
Those who know me know that there is another side to me, which is the tikam side. Yes, I have been buying some call warrants yesterday. If the market rises, I am most likely to say thank you and move on. If it falls, I will lick my wounds and move on. This is tikam, which needs an entirely different mindset from fundamental investors.
Are you a fundamental investor or a short-term trader?
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As I spend more time in the markets, I realize that there is a stunning difference between being a fundamental investor as compared to a short-term trader. The only similarity they have is that both want to make money. But in terms of the characteristics of a successful fundamental investor, it is almost the opposite of a short-term trader.
A short-term trader is by nature, impulsive, excitable and adrenaline seeking. He practices cut loss, profit taking and is glued to the trading screens looking for trading & arbitrage opportunities. He feels the energy and sentiments of the market and use this gut feel to trade the market.
A fundamental investor on the other hand is usually a calm, calculated & patient person. He practices averaging down if his stocks go down in price. If it goes up, he will willingly hang on until he feels that the share has been correctly priced. He is not glued to the screen and is happy just to look at the share price at the end of every week.
Both fundamental investor and short-term traders take risk. The short-term trader actually takes less risk than the fundamental investor as the short-term trader practices cut loss if the share price moves downwards. This strategy ensures that he preserves a significant part of his capital even if he makes a wrong move. For the fundamental investor, he is more likely to average down and if the share price keeps going down, his capital can diminish quite quickly.
Before one starts investing in the stock market, it is important to know whether one is a fundamental investor or a short-term trader. Both groups need different skill sets to succeed. Time to monitor stocks is also an important consideration as it is unlikely that one can be a successful trader if one is not full time in the stock market. However, one can be a successful fundamental investor even if one holds on to a full time job.
The key attributes of a fundamental investor is that he must identify the right stocks as he really does not have that much protection when the stocks go down given that he is more likely to average down than to sell his stocks. As such, it is wise for fundamental investors to select stocks that have wide margins of safety, in case something goes wrong with their stock selection. The concept of margin of safety is discussed
Putting all my eggs in only a few baskets
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For my long-term investments, I only have about 5 stocks. For one of these stocks, it currently represents over 50% of my portfolio value.
My rationale is simple. If I diversify too much, even if a stock rises 100%, it may not increase the worth of my portfolio significantly. Of course, it is nice to feel that you have a one bagger. But what good is this if you only feel good and your portfolio worth only increases marginally. My aim in investing is to multiply my net worth and not to feel good. If I wanted to feel good, I will drink my Gin & Tonic. Good thing about investing is that one has only one mission, which is simply to make your money grow as fast you can.
For the stock that represents over 50% of my portfolio value, you can bet that I watch it like a hawk. I look out for announcements on the company and try to understand as much as I can about the industries in which it operates. Good thing about having a few stocks is that you can focus.
As human beings, by nature, we are all risk adverse and when we invest, the natural tendency is to spread our risk all over the place. Sadly, many so-called professionals recommend this spreading of risk approach to their clients.
But to me, if I want to invest properly in the stock market, I must be willing to take risks. I reduce my risk by understanding the companies that I invest in thoroughly. I understand their industries and keep myself updated on what is happening worldwide. I do not reduce my risk by spreading my investments as thin as I would spread butter on a toast.
Another analogy is that of your spouse. You have only one spouse. It was a tough decision when you signed on the dotted line. You are now fully committed and will take care of your only family. In stocks, we are in a way, allowed to be polygamous and we all know the problems of this. We should be happy already that we can have more than one stock!... Five is already a handful.....any more is a crowd that is really impossible to handle!
Riding the mega trends
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To be able to identify whether it is a bull or bear market is critical to any investor. To me, it is not so important trying to predict whether it is bullish today or not. So long as the general mega trend is bullish, I am comfortable investing.
To identify a mega trend, one has to keep a constant tab on what is happening locally as well as in the world, especially in the US, for us here in Singapore. When there is a correction, which I did not prepare for, I am more than willing to continue riding my stocks if the general trend of the market is still bullish.
In a bear market, I have a tendency of just keeping cash in the bank and playing the put warrants. This keeps my mind active and yet keeps my ammo ready when I smell an upturn in the mega trend.
Right now, I am almost fully invested as I feel that the bull has some more room to run. But as soon as I feel that the mega trend has turned negative, I will make no hesitation to liquidate most of my holdings, including my fundamental stocks.
Even as fundamental investors, we must realize that it is fruitless fighting against a mega trend. At best, the share price of our fundamental stock will remain stagnant. At worse, it can drop significantly in value. Hence, it is logical in a bear market not to be holding on even to fundamentally sound stocks given the risk, reward ratio.
The call as to whether we are in a bear or bull market is equally as important to a fundamental investor as to a speculator.
Worry is good, but not excessive
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Investing is risky. Don't let anyone fool you otherwise. With risk comes worry. If you are not worrying about your investments, it is likely that you are not investing enough of your capital. If you are not investing enough, whether your investments go up or down, really makes very little difference to your net worth. Yes, it will boost your ego when you have a stock that goes up 100% but as stated, investing is not about ego or feeling good, it is about multiplying your net worth.
In the past, I believed that one should only invest what one is willing to lose. But honestly, which one of us is willing to lose any part of our money? None of us should have any money, which we are willing to lose....,otherwise, give the money to me! We invest to win and we should invest sufficiently to make a difference to our net worth. Otherwise, investing is more like a game rather than a commitment. If one is committed enough, you can bet that he will spend sufficient time with his investments.
Of course, if one is just starting out, better to test water first and investing in our younger years is more like an education. However, as we age gracefully, investing should be something we take very seriously and passionately to prepare us for the future when we will no longer be so employable.
When I am too heavy in a stock position that it starts to affect my sleep, then I feel that I have gone over the limit and the degree of worry is too excessive. Humans should not be deprived of sleep as this will eventually affect our mental well being, which in turn may affect our alertness and we can eventually make mistakes in our investments. As such, when I lose sleep over an investment, I know that I am better liquidating my position regardless of whether the trade is profitable or not.
Everyone has his limits and we should know our own limits. For me, when I start losing sleep, I have reached my threshold and will act accordingly.
Use margin wisely
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When I formed SI 4 years ago, I did not know much about margin and the general consensus then and even today, is that margin is harmful.
However, when I meet up with other business leaders, I realized that many of these folks built up their businesses on margin or borrowed financing. They tell me that margin is a business tool that one needs to overcome & control. It is neither bad nor good. It is how we use margin that is more important. Margin used correctly can accelerate the growth of any company or for that matter, an investment portfolio.
Rather than ignoring the use of margin, I opened up a margin account 8 months ago to 'try' it out. Since then, I have learnt quite a bit more about margin and in the process, I also learnt a bit more about myself.
I learnt that some stocks are non-marginable stocks, i.e. one cannot purchase these stocks using his margin account. Initially I thought that this is a good list of stocks not to buy, given that the brokers must have done their homework.
Later I found out that brokers minimize their risks by having this list of non-marginable stocks. This list of stocks represent stocks that a lot of their margin clients have purchased and brokers do not want to have any more exposure to these stocks than they currently have. This list usually does not include stocks with poor liquidity as brokers do not want the issue of not being able to sell these stocks in the event they need to do so.
The list of non-marginable stocks can vary from broker to broker. Brokers just want to minimize their exposure to these stocks in the event these stocks drop in value. Hence, they do not want too much of their margin capital tied to these stocks.
The other thing I learnt about margin is that not all stocks are valued equally. Brokers have another checklist, which tells them the percentage of the stock price that they will recognize for each and every stock in their margin account. As I play warrants and some of these expire within a year, well, to this broker, such warrants have no value in the margin account...meaning that though I have bought these using the margin account, as far as the broker is concerned, the value of these warrants is zero.
This means that the available margin is reduced as the valuation of the stocks in my margin account is lower. This also means that the likelihood of a margin call is higher as on paper, my margin account is worth less than its actual market value.
When I was playing Star Cruises during the SARS period, I recall that the broker only recognizes 70% of its market value. Which basically means that the margin extended to me will be much less than what I expected.
With the first 2 trades, I lost money and before I knew it, I had a margin call warning. Hence, it is important when you use margin to have sufficient funds set aside in case of margin calls. Fortunately, for me the share price went up and no margin call was made.
Since then, the market has edged upwards and I have multiplied my initial investment through the use of margin. From these months of experience using margin, I can safely say that you need to be an even more disciplined investor if you want to use margin effectively. Margin can evaporate your portfolio if you are not careful.
My 2 basic principles in using margin are:
1. Try not to use more than 50% of the margin extended to you. This way, the likelihood of a margin call is substantially reduced. When you use margin to the fullest and the market goes against you, as it always has a tendency to do, you are likely to receive a margin call and may have to liquidate your positions at 'bargain' prices.
2. Margin accounts are more suitable for tikam stocks than for fundamental stocks. For fundamental stocks, you are more likely to average down and this increases the likelihood for margin calls if the stock goes down further. For tikam stocks, you should have a cut loss strategy and this reduces your risk of margin calls.
Margin is a double-edged sword. Use it well and you can be doubly rewarded. Use it incorrectly, and your capital may perish.
Attributes of a successful investor
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I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:
1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.
To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it.
The experience of running a business to me can only be gained by running one's own business. Some time back, I was running a regional division for IBM and I thought that I had acquired all the skills for running a business when I left IBM. I was dead wrong. Running a division within an MNC does not give one the full picture of what it takes to run a private enterprise.
Believe me that one has another 90% to learn when one gets out into the 'real world'. Without being out in the 'real business world', one may not truly understand what it takes to run a successful private business. Without this understanding, one may not be able to identify issues that a business may face in the future.
Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. Reading the notes in an annual report can sometimes give one a better picture than the headlines.
3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares.
4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
You may find it odd that I say nothing about the ability to identify and rate management integrity. This is because I find all CEOs such good salesmen and saleswoman that I really cannot tell the difference just by talking with them. In fact, the better I know the CEO, the more likely that I will be taken in by their personalities and charm.
Fundamental investing vs. trading
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During the Nov seminar, I spent some time talking about this and want to share it here as well. To me fundamental investing is really about getting the multibaggers - stocks that will multiply many folds in value. Trading on the other hand is about 10-20% gainers and then saying thank you.
Actually, the short-term risk of a fundamental investor is a lot higher as a fundamental investor should be one that is more likely to average down than to cut loss if his share price declines. A trader on the other hand is likely to practice a cut loss position when his shares drop 5 -10% in value. With a cut loss strategy, a trader limits his exposure and keeps the bulk of his ammo available for the next trade.
A fundamental investor will keep researching and researching and this can be boring. But this is the basis of fundamental investing - patience with researching and researching. A trader usually relies on technical analysis, trading tools or simply gut feel.
The gain for a fundamental investor is usually painfully slow but steady. A trader can come in and out of positions within minutes. His life is fast, exciting but erratic as he often loses as well as gains. A good trader is one who losses less but gains more.
A fundamental investor usually keeps his stocks for years. A trader on the other hand is more likely to close his position within seconds, minutes or intraday.
Both fundamental investor and trader need to monitor their positions. However, the fundamental investor is more likely to monitor end of day prices but a trader is one that has to be glued to his monitor.
For folks like me, on some days, I am a trader. On others, I am a fundamental investor. But one thing has to be clear. When I am trading, I don't intend to keep the stock for long. It is paramount to me to be able to know which stock is for trading and which stock is for fundamental investing.
Moving a trading stock to become a fundamental stock because it has lost its value, is asking for trouble. Hence, before one trades or invests, one has to be very clear what the objective is, as the strategies for trading may be very different from those of investing. Good night.
Valuation of stocks
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Surprisingly, for something so important as stock valuation, there can be so many different models. Sadly, many times, I see the application of the various forms of valuation as a means to justify a share price.
The most common form is of course that of price earnings or PE ratio. However, as earnings are really an accounting figure, one cannot just take this as gospel truth. One should always break down what constitutes profits as there are many ways to generate profits. True repeatable profits are usually operational profits.
Then there is valuation based on assets and again, one has to break down the assets as here again, there are so many definitions of assets - some real, some not so real!
Valuation based on future earnings is getting nearer to the grey side. Then there is valuation based on what similar companies are valued, is getting nearer the arts as this assumes that the comparable company is similar to that company - which really is quite rare as companies are usually more different than similar. Then of course, one can compare 'peers' that are listed abroad which is even more dissimilar given that investors may have different risk appetites and the main country in which it operates may be different as well.
I have also seen valuations based on various cash flow models like DCFs that may project cash flow for 10 years. If I can predict the cash flow of SI beyond 1 year, I would be very elated, let alone 10 years in this rather dynamic global business environment that all businesses are in. If I cannot predict the cash flow 1 year ahead, I would be surprise that anyone without the benefit of actually running the company, can do better.
Of course, the most creative way of valuing companies was based on amount of money spent, which was the valuation yardstick of dotcom companies at the peak of the boom. It goes to show that humans are so creative that they will find ways to justify any share price. When this happens, we should be extra careful when we read such reports.
I personally, will stick by the PE and NTA ratios but will then drill down the earnings & NTAs so that I know what constitutes these earnings and NTAs. Any other forms of valuation, I take with a pinch of salt.
Information flow is not level
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FD, I agree. When I was new to the market, I tripled my money within a year and I thought that I was gifted in investing. It was a bull market then. Well, 3 years later, I lost it all as my bets got bigger and bigger. Luck can come but luck can go just as quickly.
You can do all the research you want but your research will be based on available information. Information flow is not level. Running a business is not like turning the TOTO wheel and when the ball drops, everyone is told the number immediately. In a business, before deals can be made, many people have to be in the know....such as lawyers, business partners, suppliers, PR consultants, etc. Hence, even before a deal can be announced, many are already in the know. As investors, we must realize that there is this deficiency in the market.
This is why if you are a typical punter, it is likely that you will be among the last to know. Your chances of success are unlikely to be more than 50%.
As a long-term investor, you stand a much better chance as you are not dependent on the sudden ups and downs. Put another way, if you believe in the future of a company and invested early, it really does not matter if information flow was not efficient as you will be able to ride the share whether or not the share price went up before the announcement.
Investing successfully requires a combination of experience and foresight. It is very tough to get all these experiences when you are young. I always encourage those who want to be successful in the market to excel in what they are currently doing as every occupation teaches you something in the university of life. Following which, they should try their hand at running businesses. Only after that, should they consider investing as a career as I don't think you can learn the experiences of life by clicking on your keyboard.
Buy on rumors, sell on news
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So many stocks in our exchange are exhibiting this behavior of rising before the news is out and succumbing to profit taking thereafter.
The fact that there are rumors before the actual news suggests that information had been leaking out. In other words, there may be insider activities. However, the way it is reported is as if this is a normal occurrence in our stock market.
In an ideal stock market, of course, this should not happen. But in the real world, it does and everyday we see instances of this happening. However, I feel it is not correct for these instances to be reported as buy on rumors, sell on news. It is as good as saying that there were insider activities and this is OK. It should not be OK to have insider activities before the release of news.
In fact, in the ideal world, whenever this happens, the authorities should be on the lookout for insider activities. But sadly, I don't think that this is the case.
Because there is this gap between those who know and those who don't that I am a believer that the best way to invest in our stock market is to look for fundamentally sound stocks and hold these. With this strategy, it really does not matter if there are insider activities before the release of news because one would have bought the counter way before the leakage of the news.
Are company issued warrants good or bad?
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Thought this is an interesting topic and hence, hijacked it over here.
Vajra, personally, I feel that when company’s issue warrants, they are better off not underpricing or overpricing their warrants.
For example, if the mother share is at $1 and the company issues warrants with exercise price of 20cts, more than likely there will be folks who will convert the warrant. But the company will only get 20cts per warrant converted. The effect is that new shares are created which then dilutes the eps of the mother shares and all the company gets is 20cts.
On the other hand, if the warrant exercise price is at $2, it may be out of the money and no one converts. If this happens, then the company may have to find money somewhere else as warrants are usually issued when the company takes a loan and the concept is that when warrants are converted, whatever the company gets from the conversion of the warrant, will be used to pay off the loan.
Hence, ideally, if company’s issue warrants, the exercise price of these warrants are pegged at a price in which the company feels its share price will be at expiry of the warrants.
If one takes the same example and the company thinks that in 5 years time, its share price will be $1.50, it may do better pricing its warrants at $1.30 or so rather than pegging it at 20cts exercise price. After all, those shareholders who get these free warrants are actually not getting anything free as their shareholdings will be diluted and so will the PE when these warrants are exercised.
The market is Manic Depressive
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Loupan, I have hijacked your posting and will answer it here so that it is easier to locate in the future.
My experience is in line with yours. What I realized was that being too rationale may not be in the best interest of one's financial health. This is why you will notice that I will hold on to my shares and let it run way beyond what I think is fundamentally sound. Reason for this is because the market is manic-depressive in nature.
When it is depressed, it will push your stocks downwards to bargain levels and when it is manic, it will push it up, way beyond levels we would imagine. The manic-depressive mood swings are a reflection of the moods of the common investors. They are greedy and this will push stocks way higher than anyone can imagine. Their fear will push prices to bargain levels and below. To maximize one's return, one has to take into consideration the manic depressive moods that Mr. Market has.
I also believe that our markets are too small to try to apply the full herd instinct theories. As a result, demand and supply become even more important factors for us to understand.
Imagine if everyone were to buy up Lion Teck Chiang. The supply will run out as the demand soaks up all available supply. The price will go up and up. It will then cross the fundamental comfort level that a sensible investor will have. But to a lot of investors, as the price climbs, they get roped in and with this, the price zooms higher and higher and goes beyond what is fundamentally sound.
The herd instinct than takes over the fundamentals. I don't underestimate the power of herd instinct at this stage. But at the back of my mind, I am also aware that illusions will have to end one day and one does not want to carry the baby. Hence, in climbing the mountain, after attaining a comfort level, it is good to continue climbing for a bit more but one certainly does not want to climb to the top as the fall from there is not very pleasant. How far higher to climb is an art I am still trying to master.
The market's mood swings
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Gerrald08, if I knew the market was going to tank the way it did, I too would have sold off everything and bought back later. However, reality is that none of us knew that the market would lose hundreds of points in a matter of days. Those who knew could have been millionaires overnight.
There will be many who will say that they saw it coming. But if they are not millionaires from the last few days, take their statements with a large pinch of salt. With hindsight, we are all millionaires.
If you are like me and cannot predict the mood swings of the market, we have to invest based on our understanding of the future of a business and not that of the market. The market is manic-depressive and has mood swings. I am not good at predicting these mood swings and will never be. Hence, my focus is not to predict the future of the mood swings of the market. I am better at predicting the future of the companies in which I invest.
However, saying that, where I differ from most fundamental investors is that I also like to have a feel of the market in general. Thought I cannot predict the ups and downs and mood swings of the market, I like to hold a long-term view of the market direction. I am still of the opinion that the market uptrend is intact. However, if my view changes on the overall direction of the market, I too will sell my fundamental stocks.
Controlling one's emotion in a falling stock market
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It is a fact of life that markets go up as well as down. When markets go up, everyone is happy. When it goes down, most are very sad and depressed. There is nothing wrong with these feelings of elation and depression as this is how God made us. To be human, we are all made to be emotional.
Successful investors can control their emotions better. As the way we react to market circumstances vary between all of us, each of us has to find our own ways of controlling our emotions.
For me, I control my emotions this way. I split my stocks up into tikam stocks and investment stocks.
For tikam stocks, if I read the market wrongly and I lose 10%, I would cut loss. No ifs, no buts. I simply cut loss. To be a successful trader, you must be discipline. By being discipline, you remove the element of emotions in your trades. It is emotions that will give you a 101 reasons why you should not cut loss. Ignore your emotions. Cut loss and move on.
In trading, you must preserve your capital above everything else. Capital to trading is like bullets to a war. Lose your bullets and no matter how good you are, you are as good as dead without bullets.
For my investment stocks, if the market falls and the stock is now cheaper, I would be inclined to buy even more of these stocks. Herein lies the risk of fundamental investing. You must choose your investment stocks very carefully or else you can lose a lot of money.
In fact, I always tell people that it is more risky investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. After all, if you are disciplined in your trading and stick rigidly to a 10% cut loss strategy, the maximum you can lose is 10% of your capital. If you invest wrongly in a fundamental stock and keep averaging down (buying more stocks at a lower price), you can lose your pants if the shares keep falling all the time.
The key to reducing your risk in fundamental investing is to define your margin of safety very careful.
If you define your margin of safety correctly, you are putting in place a mechanism to control your emotions, even in a falling market. If you define this correctly, you can sleep well as you know that solid assets underpin your fundamental investments. This is why during the last few days, I have been adding to my fundamental stocks and I continue to sleep well.
Surviving a market downturn
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Firstly, one must make an educated guess as to whether the market downturn is the start of a bear market or just a hiccup in a bull market.
To me, if fundamentals remain strong and there is nothing major that is wrong with the world markets, then I will remain bullish. If a bubble starts bursting, then there is something seriously wrong....like the worldwide dotcom bubble of the past.
Many talk about the potential bubble in China....the empty apartments and office buildings and the increasing property market. True that there is growth potential because of the population of China but there is also this risk of a bubble. As everyone is in China, any effect here will have a drastic worldwide effect. If China falters, everyone will feel it. Also falling demand will result in falling commodity prices, which may be good for some industries, but for others, it may suck their growth away. This is something that I will continue to keep an eye on. However, even if this were a bubble, it will take time to develop and hence, I do not see any immediate concern yet.
As a result, I remain very bullish on the stock market and have been adding to my positions.
The other reasons why I can remain calm in a downturn are because:
1. I don't invest in the latest concept stocks like China stocks in the weeks preceding the downturn. Yes, I tikam these stocks but as I am just trading in these stocks, I have a clear-cut loss strategy. In any market downturn, I will cut loss. No ifs, no buts. This is the key to profitable trading - Discipline.
2. Although I have margin accounts, even though I occasionally use margin, I use these sparingly. If you are close to maxing your margin account, in any significant downturn, you are likely to be hit by margin calls. In a market downturn, if you have to sell your positions because of these calls, these sales are likely to be at your disadvantage. Hence, use margin sparingly.
3. I always have some available cash for such market downturns as there are buying opportunities during these times. Worse thing is that one does not have ammo to buy when he feels strongly that the market is still bullish but is in a correction phase.
Of course, at the end of the day, the most important decision to make is whether the downturn is the start of a bear market or just a correction in a bull market. If it is a bear, do not get me wrong. I will sell everything. Yes, everything, including my fundamental stocks.
However, in this case, I am still very bullish and continue to buy. Take care folks.
Strong hands & weak hands
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Money drives our stock market. If you have lots of money, you have the ability to encourage prices to move the direction you want. After all, the market is about supply and demand and if you have the money to suck up the available supply, the share price is more likely to rise. Strong hands are people with money.
On top of money, strong hands usually have patience. If strong hands want to buy, they usually don't like to have too many passengers on board. Hence, before they buy, it is more likely that they will want to push the shares lower. As the shares go lower, those with poor holding power will start wondering whether they should cut loss.
Those with poor holding power are called weak hands. When the share price drops 10-20%, weak hands are likely to sell to the strong hands. If the price falls further by 30-40%, those weak hands that have been holding will soon have weak legs as well and they are even more likely to sell.
These weak hands then lose money and start licking their wounds. If the strong hands are keen on the stock, you can bet that the strong hands were buying from the weak hands during this downturn.
When the strong hands have collected enough, they use their financial might to buy up whatever shares the sellers have left. As the supply of stocks dry up, the share price is most likely to escalate upwards very quickly.
The weak hands that sold at a loss will then start regretting their decision to cut loss. Some will start buying back at much higher levels. Others, will buy at even higher levels as they are then afraid of missing the boat. What many of the weak hands may not know is that the strong hands are now distributing back to them.
When the distribution is completed, the volume for the shares may dwindle significantly. Market interest in the stock dies down. The stock price slowly edges downwards, leaving the weak hands to hold on to the baby.
Sometimes, the strong hands will help the market downwards by shorting the shares and making on the downward path as well. Strong hands may even repeat the cycle again and make on the way up and on the way down.
When you invest in the stock market, it is always useful to know what kind of hand you have. If you have weak hands like most retail investors, know that there are usually strong hands around and you have to be extra careful as to how you read a stock direction as the involvement of strong hands can affect the stock chart.
Hence, it is important to take your time to identify your fundamental stocks. Ideally, you have a good margin of safety such that if these shares fall in value, you have the stomach to hold on to the stocks or even buy more by averaging down.
Of course, if the fundamentals of the stock change, it is a different matter. In such circumstances, I too may be a seller. But if the fundamentals remain unchanged, be prepared to hold on or buy more. Fundamental investing is OK if you do not have strong hands....but you must certainly not have a weak heart.
Gut feel & neural networks
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There is a proliferation of neural network software’s that claim to be able to predict stock market movements by either mapping existing stock patterns with chart patterns from the past or extrapolating charts. As human beings, we are always trying to explain stock market movements and find tools to predict the future.
What most of us don't realize is that we all have a very powerful brain that collates conscious and subconscious data and information which is far more powerful than the most powerful neural networks, yet, most of us do not trust what we are blessed with. Our brain is more powerful than the most powerful machines and more dependable than our cars.
As we don't understand the full powers of our brain, we don't trust what it is telling us. Our brain collates information and presents it as gut feel. Gut feel consolidates all the information that passes through our 5 senses and taints it with a little bit of emotions and past experiences.
Most of the information that passes through our 5 senses is actually subconscious rather than conscious. For example, you may see a pretty girl walking past and this is remembered in your conscious mind. But in the background, there may be someone walking a dog and a bird flying past. These are captured in our mind as subscious images.
Logic comes from our analysis of our conscious mind. Gut feel is the sum total of our conscious and subconscious information. When our gut feels talks to us, it is extracting subconscious data, adding it to the conscious data and analyzing these in the background of past experiences. No neural network can come close to the power of our brains yet, in trying to guess the future, most of us do not fully use what is in between our ears.
We should never underestimate the power of gut feel when we invest in stocks and shares. Gut feel is especially important to me when I tikam stocks as time is of the essence and the ability to process conscious and subconscious data quickly can make the difference between a winning and a losing trade.
Developing your own style of investing
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All of us have different personalities, circumstances as well as expectations. To be able to invest successfully, we have to be at one with ourselves. We must firstly understand ourselves. We must understand how we would respond in times of fear and greed.
If we succumb to greed, we are more likely to hold our stocks forever in the hopes that the stocks will continue to rise and rise, even though most of us know that very few stocks will rise forever. We are best to try to learn to control our element of greed or to have a cut loss strategy even for our fundamental stocks.
For those of us who succumb to fear, it is most likely that we would be selling too early in any bull run. We would take our profits early and then see our shares zooming to outer space and regretting our decision to take profits too early. We must learn to overcome this element of fear by not taking profits on our fundamental stocks too early or not be too involved in the market and only viewing our fundamental portfolio every week instead of every minute.
For those of us who have both greed and fear, with hindsight, we will realize that we have greed and fear all at the wrong time. When the stocks are near their peak, our fear prevented us from selling at the peak and we land up carrying our babies. When the stocks are crashing, our greed takes over and we buy even more stocks as the market is crashing.
To overcome our elements of fear and greed, we should have an investment system in place. For those of us who trade, we should have a trading system in place. The systems that you use should be tailored specifically to your circumstances, expectations as well as to the way you handle fear and greed.
I have my own trading and investment systems, which I have shared in this forum but it may not be that applicable to you given that your circumstances and expectations may vary. For me, I can park my money for a long time. However, I have high expectations for my investments and I want to multiply these very quickly. Hence, I am willing to take more risks. Moreover, as I have aged, I have gone through over 20 years of investing and am more able to control my fear and greed.
All of us should develop our own styles of investing (and for that matter, trading) that fit in with our character. Yes, it is good to learn from others how they invest but do bear in mind that everyone's circumstances, expectations and control of fear and greed are different.
Knowing both fundamentals and technical
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Rlin, successful investing requires an in-depth knowledge of how companies are run and how the stock exchange works. To understand how companies are run, there is no substitute for being an employee, to start with.
Working for big companies is also different from working for SMEs. I spent 7 years in IBM, the last 3 years in an executive position. I then spent 2 years heading an SME owned by Australian Jews. I learnt much more about businesses in that 2 years than I did for my entire spell in IBM. But IBM taught me what large companies look for and I have to add that many things are different from SMEs. Only when one is exposed to both will one understand what each looks for and this knowledge is important in investing.
Running SI over the past 6 years have given me insights into the stock market that I would never have got otherwise. Being a member of the SGX securities committee has opened my eyes further into the workings of an exchange. Being close to senior management in Bursa has added more depth to my understanding of other regional stock markets.
Hence, investing is not something that came naturally to me. I have to learn about businesses, stock exchanges on top of being active as a trader and investor.
Mega trends are long-term trends. Yes, I need mega trends to help me decide whether I should be vested in the stock markets as my fundamental stocks depend on a bullish mega trend. However, my entry into my fundamental stocks is partially determined by the technical. Hence, I use both fundamentals and technical for my fundamental stocks.
For my tikam stocks, I use a lot of trading data like Vol Distribution and Quote Movements on top of technical data.
To be an investor/trader, you need to be fluent in both fundamentals as well as technical.
I will be away in Beijing for the next few days as SI starts exploring the China market. Take care.
Companies I avoid
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With smaller companies especially, one has to ensure that the objectives of the management (who are usually the controlling shareholders as well) are in line with those of minority shareholders.
1. Salaries. If management pays themselves high salaries relative to the profits of the company, one has to be extra careful. This is especially the case if the company barely makes a profit but the management takes home healthy salaries. Sadly, it is not possible to know how much actual salary is paid as the current requirement is just to give salary bands rather than actual salaries. A salary band of $500K to $1 mil is really too wide to be that useful. Moreover, on top of salaries, there can be performance shares, bonuses or options which makes the calculations even more difficult.
2. Poor investor communications. These companies keep a very low profile and management rarely gives updates to the minority shareholders. In AGMs, these companies do not take too well to the feedback of the minority shareholders.
However, there are some companies that do this so as not to alert corporate sharks as to the real value of their companies. Hence, one has to sift out the real undervalued stocks from the rest of the stocks in this category.
3. Significant interested party transactions. The company does a lot of transactions with related companies. Some of these companies are co-owned by the majority shareholder. This makes it difficult to gauge the actual profitability of the business as one can buy from a related company at a higher price or at a lower price, depending on what the majority shareholder wants to achieve.
Similarly, I am extra careful if the daughter company is listed rather than the holding company. For example, if the holding company owns a manufacturing plant, it can theoretically lower the price of manufacturing and make the daughter company look very profitable. The manufacturing company on the other hand will chalk up huge losses but as this is unlisted, few will know or care.
Are high volume counters better than low volume counters?
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If you are a trader, you should certainly trade only in high volume counters. Otherwise, you may not be able to exit your positions. This is a fact, which no one can deny.
However, if you are an investor, do you really want to invest in high volume counters? High volume can suggest a few things. Firstly, the counter is well researched as it is well traded. This means that it is unlikely that there are jewels in this company that has not been revealed yet. The counter is likely to be trading at its fair value and if you are looking for bargains, I doubt you will find many in high volume counters.
High volume can also suggest that strong hands are at play together with all the 'funny' hands and all types of hands. I am a believer of supply and demand and when there are so many hands involved, truly, the share price can go either direction depending on what the hands are doing. This puts an investor at the mercy of these hands.
For me, as an investor, I go for counters that no one wants. The trading volume is usually very low as I am looking for jewels and the chances of finding these in a remote island are far better than finding in a crowded place like Singapore. I know that when others find out that there are jewels in this remote island, all the speculators will come and the volumes will then swell. When this happens, it is time to say thank you and move on to identify the next remote island.
Investors should not shy away from low liquidity counters just because these have low trading volumes. The best values and the highest margin of safety can be found in these unloved counters. Good thing too about unloved counters is that there are usually no funny hands around and what you see in the queues is what you get.
However, investors must realize that it can take months or years before these counters get the attention of other investors and speculators and as such, investors must have good holding power to invest in such counters.
20% returns should be achievable
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Decided to answer this private message here so that others can also voice their opinions as well. Nothing better than to hear as many views as possible.
I must admit that a lot of my money is in the stock market. I feel comfortable with this because I spend a lot of my time analyzing and keeping an eye on the stocks that I hold. If I had a full time job elsewhere, I would certainly not recommend putting so much into stocks and shares as I would then not have the time to monitor these stocks.
Successful stock market investing requires a lot of time. Don't belief those who tell you otherwise. Believe me, there is a lot of sweat and tears. The pre requisites will be a sharp, analytical mind as frankly, one is competing against the best brains to make that extra buck. Even better if you have the experience of running your own business and one can put oneself into the shoes of the management and predict what they are likely to do given those circumstances. Also, one has to belief in him as frankly, whenever money is concerned, you can only trust yourself and your judgment.
If one spends quality time analyzing stocks and shares, you should at least have a return of 20% or more. To show what is possible with just $10K, 3 years ago I opened my first margin account. Today, the account is worth over $65K with no borrowings and I did just 3 trades this year. As a margin account is a fully documented account, I intend to share the details when the account reaches $100K. When this has been achieved, I will close the account and liquidate everything to cash to show that the money is real. This is not a demonstration account. The shares that I have in this account are a close reflection of the shares that I hold in my other accounts. There are only 4 stocks in this account.
In the early years of the account, yes, I did use margin as it was not easy to grow $10K. But margin eats both ways and the end of the second trade only left me left with $5K of cash! Fortunately, after the first 2 money losing margin transactions, I learnt how to use margin effectively.
If one does not have so much time to dedicate to stocks and shares, unit trusts and endowment policies may make more sense even though one has to pay the 1% or so of upfront marketing costs.
It is a pity that we don't have a Bershire Hathaway equivalent over here in Singapore and it is my hope that once SI is on a firmer foundation, I intend to look into this. I like the principles of Bershire Hathaway as there are no upfront charges to investors or yearly 'maintenance' fees. I also like the concept of an investing community taken to the next level.
Cutting loss or averaging down
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Wormbunny, in the past, I too tried to practice a cut loss strategy for all my stocks and realized that this does not work for the reasons that you have cited.
Today, I only cut loss on my tikam or speculative stocks if they fall 10% in value since I bought these. These are my short-term trades, may they be intraday or intraweek. These stocks are usually the top 10 most active stocks in that day or week. Hence, there is sufficient volume on both buys and sells queues to run when there is a need to do so. Also, because there is sufficient volume, it is most unlikely that any one player can cause the stock to drop 10% in value so quickly.
For these stocks, if they rise more than 20%, I am out. This way, I need 1 winner to neutralize 2 losing trades (of course, not considering the broking commissions). Most of us are right 50% of the time and hence, this strategy works well for me.
However, for my fundamental stocks, I practice the reverse of cut loss. I actually buy more or average down. Yes, it is a lot more risky investing than tikaming because if you make a mistake and buy a lemon of a fundamental share, you can lose big time as you keep buying and buying when the shares go down in value.
Hence, I spend a lot of time researching every single stock in my fundamental list. Also, I need a large margin of safety in terms of discount to net cash and properties before I park a significant amount of my net worth into these few fundamental stocks.
It is crucial to me to differentiate which of my stocks are my fundamental stocks and which are my tikam stocks as each of these has totally reverse strategies. Do read my investment strategy link below to understand the importance of this differentiation. Take care.
My timing is usually not good
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Rebek, different views make the market what it is today. I love the market. You can play it any, which way you wish. I think you have to find a strategy that fits your personality and of course, your wallet.
Personally, I find it hard to time the market. Hence, I always buy small and then add to my positions. Even if the short-term trend is downwards, it is never easy to know when to sell and when to buy back. Most of the time, I got it wrong in the past and ended up not being able to ride the wave upwards latter as I procrastinate on when to buy back. Hence, now, I just average down. Reason I can do so is because I always start by buying small and have reserves to buy more when the price goes down further.
A common mistake that many investors make is that they think they have perfect timing. They think that the share price will rise the following day after they bought and hence, they use all their available capital to buy as much as they can on that day. I too used to suffer from this delusion of perfect timing. Nowadays, I simply tell myself that my timing is usually poor and hence, I buy slowly and add on to my positions gradually. What I have found is that I can usually buy lower as the months progress.
Having an investment strategy helps us overcome our emotions
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For my fundamental stocks, I find it very important to have a investment strategy that I follow closely. This strategy helps me overcome my emotions of fear and greed.
In the event my fundamental stocks fall in value without any obvious changes to the fundamentals of the stock, the element of fear will result in most of us taking our profits too early. To hold on to these stocks will not be instinctive to most of us. To buy even more stocks would contradict even the more bullish of investors. But, for my fundamental stocks, this is exactly what I would do - buy more.
Hence, it is very important to me that before I identify a stock as being a fundamental stock, I would have gone through the stock fundamentals with a fine comb and ascertain that it has a good margin of safety. If I did not do my homework thoroughly, I would not have the guts to buy more if it continues falling in price. If I am wrong, I can suffer significant financial loss. Hence, I take the issue of identifying a fundamental stock very seriously.
When the stock climbs in value, our element of fear will encourage most of us to take our profits and run. With my fundamental stocks, if the fundamentals remain strong, I would continue holding on to these stocks unless the stock has exceeded my exit price for it. Yes, for every stock, I do have an exit price, which I keep, close to my chest for obvious reasons!
Having an exit price allows me to overcome my element of greed. As the share price races ahead, one can be easily swept by the euphoria and when that happens, one will continually elevate one's exit price. Hence, when one's mind is sound and the external environment peaceful, it is the best time to determine a fair valuation for exit. My exit price is usually already at a premium to the fair market value of the stock.
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