投资大师罗杰斯给女儿的忠告

我的父母和祖父母把这个观念深烙在我的脑海中：永远不要问别人他赚多少钱，也不要与别人讨论你赚多少钱或你有多少钱。
　　
永远不要问别人这个东西多少钱买的，也不要告诉别人你的东西是多少钱买的。
　　 　　 　　 　　
任何“必看”、“必试”、“必读”的东西能免则免，尤其是流行的东西。记住，根据定义，有一半的人口智商在中位数以下。
　　
小心所有的政客。在学生时代，她最出众的是下课休息时间；从学校毕业以后 ，很少有卓越的事。
　　 　　
你在单身酒吧得不到什么东西——调酒师会比你学到更多的经验，赚到更多的小费。你会注意到，老板不会在下班后，每天跟死党出去喝酒，这正是为什么他是老板。
　　
在你上杂货店购物之前，一定要先填饱肚子——你才不会买过头了。
在商务午餐谈公事时，不要喝酒。
　　　
永远买高品质的东西，它们经久耐用，更能保持价值。
　　　 　
　　1. 不要让别人影响你－－假如每个人都嘲笑你的想法，这就是可能成功的指标。
　　2. 专注你所爱－－在真正热爱的工作上努力，就会找到你的梦想。
　　3. 普通常识并不是那麽普通－－大众社会相信的常常是错的，不要盲目听信别人的话。
　　4. 将世界纳入你的眼界－－保持开放的心，做个世界公民。
　　5. 研读哲学，学会思考－－训练自己去检验每一个概念，每一个事实。
　　6. 学习历史－－因为以前发生过的事，以後也还会发生。
　　7. 这是中国的世纪，去学中文！－－参与一个伟大国家的再现，购买这个国家的未来。
　　8. 真正认识自己－－了解你的弱点和觉察你的错误，才能找到对的路。
　　9. 认出改变，拥抱改变－－改变的功能就像催化剂，保持觉知是重要的功课。
　　10. 面对未来－－看得见未来的人可以累积财富。
　　11. 反众道而行－－检视事实和机会，不随乌合之众心理起舞。
　　12. 幸运女神只眷顾持续努力的人－－用功读书，学得越多你才知道你懂得越少。

The Psychology Of Winning By Dr Dennis Waitley

Web sites: http://www.selfgrowth.com/experts/craig_lock.html http://www.myspace.com/writercraig
http://www.selfgrowth.com/articles.html

The Psychology of Winning
by Dr Dennis Waitley

This article is a brief summary of my notes from an excellent motivational, up-lifting and inspiring book 'THE PSYCHOLOGY OF WINNING' by Dr Dennis Waitley. I am sharing the contents of this work in the spirit of encouraging and hopefully even inspiring those people, who really want to "cultivate and grow Seeds of Greatness" in their own lives to read the book...and just GO FOR IT... and surprise yourself by "winning in the game of life"!.

"It's not what you "are" that holds you back; it's what you think you are not. Winners control their self image and change it as they desire. They elevate their self image and enlarge their universe. Winners are especially aware of the tremendous importance of their self image. What you imagine as being real, with frequency, becomes your version of reality. Phantasize about the person they would most like to become.
READ A BIOGRAPHY THIS MONTH.
LISTEN TO educational and inspiring cassette tapes. Read uplifting books, like Dr Waitley's.

Winners are people with a definite purpose in life, like a "homing torpedo". Losers wander aimlessly through life. or self destruct.

"No wind blows in favour of a ship without a destination."

"Where there is life, there is hope.
Where there are hopes there are dreams.

Where there are vivid dreams repeated, they become (there are goals). And goals become the action plans toward success.

We become what we think about most of the time.

Millions of people lead unhappy aimless lives - existing from day to day, year to year, confused, frustrated, in a prison of our own making. About 95 of humanity are ships without rudders, hopelessly adrift and subject to every shift of wind and tide. 5 of people accomplish more in 5 years than the rest accomplish in a lifetime.
Every sea captain, knows his next port of call.
Winners have lifetime goals. What would I want people to say about me after I'm gone? Losers spend their time in low prioritytension relieving, rather than high priority goal-achieving activities.

Most people spend more time planning a party, studying the newspaper or making a Christmas list, than they do in planning their lives. Winners set daily goals the afternoon or evening before. List on paper in priority sequence at least 6 major things to do tomorrow. Establish a clearly defined goal and write it down. dwell on it, as IF YOU'VE ALREADY ACHIEVED IT. Move in the direction of your priority goal, as if it already were a part of your life. We become what we think about most - it's specific. The man without a purpose is like a ship without a rudder.

"One ship sails East, another West, by the self- same winds that blow.
Tis the set of the sail and not the gale, that determines the way they go.
Like the winds of the sea are the ways of time, as we voyage along through life.
Tis the set of the soul that determines the goal;
and not the calm or the strife."

Get behind the helm. Plan the work and work the plan, one day at a time.

"Everything in life
Is what you make it...
it's not what it is that counts
it's how you take it."

Winners practice positive self-discipline. Self discipline alone can make or break a habit. Losing is habit forming; whereas winners simulate winning.

Winners pick themselves up after a loss, dust themselves off and do it all over...better!
Self discipline is the winning edge that achieves goals; it is mental practice

"If I can help you win, then I win. If nature wins, everybody wins.

Become a TOTAL person in the process of personal growth through our failures.

The greatest quality is earning the respect and love of other people.

Winners live each precious golden day, as if it were their last - building for the future, learning from the past.

Winners develop a cherished respect for the value of time.

"There isn't more to life than this - a baby's smile, a loved one's kiss a book, a song, a flower, a friend and just a little time - to spend."

Winners know they can't enjoy the view, unless they climb the mountain.

Learn from the past, plan for the future and live as fully as possible in the present

SUCCESS FORMULA:

Conceive + believe = achieve

visualise + internalise = realise
imagination + simulation = realisation

Winners project a warm glow and have a "gut feeling" that they are on the right path.

Just "do the best with what you've got"!

Listeners learn a great deal, while talkers learn nothing.
Winners ask questions, draw the other person out.
Know paying value to others is the greatest communication skill of all.
Winners are service oriented - not self oriented. We communicate by means of over 700000 non-verbal signals!

Have a good attitude: "I'll make him glad he talked with me."

Winners know everybody hears and sees differently.
They practice the KISS principle.

Will Rogers: "I never met a man I didn't like". Rogers found something to admire in everyone.

"Marriage is not looking at each other, but looking in the same direction together."

Feel your own worth and pass it on to others. Talk yourself and others up. Put your goals down on paper and share them with those who can help you achieve them.

Say, "the only limits to my accomplishments in life are self imposed".
Winners phantasize their own scripts - a magificient epic motion picture for which chosen as writer, producer, director and star.
Life is a "do-it-yourself project". Focus on desire, rather than fear. The stresses desire provide energy, propulsion, creativity and magnetic pull.

YOUR IMAGINATION RULES THE WORLD.
Set a game plan for your life. Losing is a developed habit, and so is winning.
Earn the respect of other human beings. Do your business to the benefit of others, not at their expense.

"If you want to be loved, be lovable."

Be happy just being the very best person you can be with "loads of" FUN along the journey of life.

Eagle Productions ("Information and Inspiration Distributers, Incorrigible Encouragers and People-builders")

"I'm gonna fly from my cocoon and put my footsteps on the moon All I've ever hoped to be is free to be that person...me!

"Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir your blood to action - make big plans, aim high in work and hope."

"Every man has his own destiny; the only imperative is to follow it, no matter where it leads him." - Henry Miller

"Our Greatest Good is perhaps not to achieve wealth and share our material possessions, our money and 'riches' with others, but through encouragement and faith in other people, to lay the firm foundation of revealing the rich treasure that lies within themselves."
- craig

"And whatever else history may say about me when I'm gone, I hope it will record that I appealed to your best hopes, not your worst fears, to your confidence rather than your doubts. My dream is that you will travel the road ahead with liberty's lamp guiding your steps and opportunity's arm steadying your way. My fondest hope for each one of you - and especially for young people - is that you will love your country, not for her power or wealth, but for her selflessness and her idealism. May each of you have the heart to conceive, the understanding to direct, and the hand to execute works that will make the world a little better for your having been here. May all of you as Americans never forget your heroic origins, never fail to seek divine guidance, and never lose your natural, God-given optimism. And finally, my fellow Americans, may every dawn be a great new beginning for America and every evening bring us closer to that shining city upon a hill."
- Former US President Ronald Reagan

我的名字叫習慣（ 摘錄自丹尼斯魏特利博士Winning For Life）

你可人能認識我，我一直都是你的夥伴！

我可以是你最好的幫手，也是你最大的負擔。

我可以督促妳，也可以讓你一拜塗地。

我隨時聽從使喚！　　

妳還不如把大部分的事情交給我處理，因為我做事的速度很快。

只要你提出要求，　我還可以用同樣的方法做事。

我是最容易管理的，只要對我嚴厲一些就好。

告訴我你要的是什麼，　在練習幾次之後，我就可以毫不思索地達成目標。

我是所有偉大者的僕人，也是所有失敗者的主人。

我成就所有的偉人，也造就了所有的失敗者。

我精密如電腦，且可以用我破壞，對我而言，兩者沒有什麼不同！

對我放鬆，我就毀了你　﹔　對我嚴格，我就會讓你出人頭地。

我是誰？
～
～
～
～
我的名字叫～～～～～～～習慣！　　

大前研一

大前研一（Kenichi Ohmae），麻省理工学院博士。曾任麦肯锡日本分公司董事长，兼任许多跨国公司的管理顾问。1994年7月离开麦肯锡，现任创业者商学院校长和一新塾校长。1996年起任美国加州大学洛杉矶分校教授，斯坦福大学客座教授。被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，“日本战略之父”。

大前研一-个人简介
大前研一，早稻田大学理工系毕业后，获得东京工业大学硕士学位，麻省理工学院博士学位。曾任麦肯锡咨询公司日本分社社长、公司董事、国际著名企业顾问。1994年7月离开麦肯锡，现任创业者商学院校长和一新塾校长，1996年起任加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校研究生院教授，斯坦福大学商学院客座教授。被英国《经济学家》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，“日本战略之父”。 他是麦肯锡公司日本公司的董事长，也是最高管理层的顾问和公司的创始者。日本许多非常著名的公司，通常会的制定竞争战略时寻求他的帮助，而他的建议也同样深受到了美国和欧洲跨国公司的欢迎。 大前研一先在在许多行业领域为企业提供了服务。电子设备，办公室设备，摄影设备，机械设备，食品，橡胶，以及化工产品。他能够提出创新性的战略，并提出相应的组织观念去实现这些战略。 　

“虽然日本一百多年来西化得厉害，可我总认为深入骨髓的东方文化还没有被完全同化。大前研一的张扬和口无遮拦，不仅让中国人觉得奇怪和惊讶，其实就在日本甚或整个东方也都是绝无仅有！”《金融时报》这样描述大前研一：“坦率无忌型名人非常稀缺的国度里的一个名人。当绝大部分日本人还在小心翼翼不敢冒犯别人时，大前研一却是生硬率直，有时还单刀直入般地粗鲁……他还是日本仅有的一位极为成功的管理学宗师。”

想要了解一个人行为、思维模式、甚至思想深度，最简单易行的途径是通过他经历和著述。大前研一是名日本人，他先是美国化(他的美国同事称他为凯恩)，然后是全球化。大前极富天分。他的长笛演奏水平可以参加音乐会，他还是名核物理学家，著作等身的伟大作家，政治家，麦肯锡咨询公司（Mckinsey & Company）长期的业务明星。当他在1995年离开麦肯锡咨询公司前往竞选东京市长时，麦肯锡咨询公司的离别公告将大前研一称为“一名伟大的咨询员，一名使人中魔的演讲者，一名多产到无法思议的作家，一名音乐家和一名摩托车手”。当然，最后一项的成就就不那么明显。

素有“战略先生”之称的大前研一，对于企业经营管理及策略规画有精辟而独到见解，被英国《经济学人》杂志评选为“全球五位管理大师”之一，是少数获得国际肯定的东方管理大师。大前曾经准确的预测了前苏联的解体、日本经济的泡沫化等等。

大前研一-人物观点
大前研一的全球化觀點被英國學界四位大師DavidHeld、A.McGrew、D.Goldblatt、J.Perraton歸類為《超全球化學派》的新自由學派之ㄧ，其TheBorderlessWorld、TheEndoftheNationState、TheInvisibleContinent、TheNextGlobalStage等四本書最為重要。

大前研一專長於跨國企業的市場策略、海外投資、組織系統及經營方針之規畫。常受邀於亞洲各國，從事國家重大投資開發計畫之評估。

大前研一挑戰傳統的逆向思考方式，及坦率直言的風格，不僅在日本、在全球各論壇中都獨樹一幟；此從其一系列的著述中可得知。

大前研一-主要著作
除了著名的《战略家的思想》、《没有国界的世界》外，大前研一著作中有名气的，最起码在西方还有《日本商业：障碍和机会》(Japan Business：Obstacles and Opportunities)，《三位一体的力量：环球竞争将要到来的形态》(Triad Power：The Coming Shape Of Global Competition)，《超越国界》(Beyond National Borders)，《民族国家的尽头》(The End Of the Nation State)，《看不见的新大陆》(The Invisible Continent——Four strategic imperatives of the new economy)等。

他在《看不见的大陆》这本书里提出了一个观点，现在出现了一个新大陆，这个新的大陆是大家看不见的，但是所有人都不能逃过它的影响，大家都能感觉到它的存在。《看不见的新大陆》概括了新经济的四大互相影响的特征(有形、无国界、数字科技和高效益成本比)，并提出了相应的应对战略。“看不见”是因为这个新大陆并非一块实质上存在的土地，而是存在于我们的集体意识。

但是，这块无形的新大陆对经济、政治及社会的影响却是实实在在可以感受得到的。尽管后来发生了互联网泡沫的破碎，但大前研一后来在文章和讲演中强调，“新经济”已经大大改变了全球竞争规则，重申了与世界接轨的重要性。无论个人还是机构，都需要用新的眼光来看迅速变化的世界，并从中找到成功机会。

大前研一的观点尖锐而富有争议，近几年他潜心研究亚洲经济，著书100多本，其中关于中国的三本着作都在海外经济学界引起了强烈反响，成为全球研究亚洲经济最有影响力的学者之一。

在《China Impact》一书中，大前研一开篇写道：“中国已经觉醒。”他相信包括东北、京津、山东、长三角、福建、珠三角在内的不同地区已形成六个不同的强大的经济体，它们支持着中国经济的发展，并将对世界产生重要的影响。未来10年，世界最重要的课题就是如何与一个强大的中国相处。他也不断强调，中国的崛起对于世界，尤其是亚洲，首先是一个重大的机遇，而不是什么威胁。

大前研一在《中国，岀租中》认为这种“租位子经济”，最能带动中国的经济快速成长，他把全中国比喻成一个超级大卖场，他欢迎所有的国际企业来租个摊位卖产品，全球没有任何其它国家能比得上中国的超级吸引力。

“受到经济浪潮强力的推移，2005年两岸和平统一！中华联邦的新板块，将结合中、台、港，甚至是新加坡，成为一股莫可抵挡的经济旋风。” 这是大前研一在《中华联邦》中的大胆预言。

记得有人说过，贩卖思想的人，不管是天真还是幼稚，是狂热还是执著，都具有特别的气质。在一个人声鼎沸的现代社会，只有分贝远远高于众人，你才能“引人注目”，你的观念才有机会深入人心，不管是真理还是谬论，是被人赞赏还是唾弃。如果你没有语不惊人死不休的执著与勇气，你与理解的同情与共鸣之约也就只好永远遥遥无期，思想家最痛苦的恐怕莫过于此。我想大前研一必是深谙其中的道理。

知識價值vs.資金力量

十九世紀，亞當史密發表《國富論》，其後一百多年，資本主義思想主導人類經濟運作，財富的創造來自擁有生產工具的資本家，資本擁有者攫取了企業經營最大的利潤。

二十世紀末，美國麻省理工學院管理學教授梭羅發表《新國富論》，倡言人類正經歷第三次工業革命，邁進以知識為基礎的新經濟時代，財富的創造來自科技創新。
杜拉克在他的鉅著《後資本主義社會》也呼應：「在新的經濟體系裡，知識並不是和人力、資本或土地等並列的生產資源，而是唯一有意義的一項資源。」

強盜富豪紛紛落馬， 龐大的實體資產不再可靠。
大師們的讜論，宣告了一個時代的終結，及另一個時代的濫觴。擁有資本者，不再能如以往般呼風喚雨；擁有知識者卻能暢行無阻。
現實經濟社會中，這種不重資本、卻重知識的現象，已然成形。
資本主義社會下，擁有資本、土地、生產工具纔能累計財富的法則，造就了一群被稱為「強盜富豪」的各種大王︰石油大王、鋼鐵大王、鐵路大王等，如今已成過眼雲煙。二十世紀最後一位強盜富豪——微軟的比爾蓋茲，在短短20年所累積的千億美元財富，靠的也不再是對生產工具及資源的壟斷，而是知識的優勢。
同樣的現象，也可從台灣資本市場看出端倪。民國七十九年，台股指數登上12682點頂峰，當時上市公司總市值排名，依次為國壽、中銀、中鋼、一銀、華銀、彰銀、北商銀、台泥和中華開發。除了台泥和中鋼外，都是擁有龐大資產的金融股，而中鋼和台泥的市值所反應的，也是背後的龐大土地資產。
而今，過去紅極一時的金融股、營建股、資產股不但光芒盡失、跌破面值的比比皆是，即使稱霸台灣股市30年，至今獲利良好的國壽，市值也被台積電、聯電等知識密集型科技股超越，差距愈拉愈大。
產業的興衰，反映的是經濟環境的變遷以及隨之而來的經濟運作法則的更新。過去資本主導的經濟體系，根源於實體經濟中，生產需要投入大量原物料、土地、廠房、勞動力，配合運送、行銷、通路等。每一段加值過程，都是由資金的大量投入所堆積。
新經濟體系卻有一套迥然不同的法則：成本有限、機會無窮。台灣康柏電腦總經理何薇玲闡明，在網路經濟體系中，企業可以從事「無本生意」，因為資訊將以零時距、零失真、零中間附加價流竄在無邊無際的網路中，但卻可以創造「無限可能」：用戶無限、創造性無限以及國界無限。
PC home電腦家庭出版集團發行人詹宏志也觀察到網際網路帶來的經濟革命，根源於網路經濟的特性是：
趨近於零的運算成本，趨近於即時的運算速度；
趨近於零的溝通成本，趨近於即時的反應速度；
趨近於零的運輸成本，趨近於即時的服務速度。

何薇玲也進而歸納出價值的源頭，在舊體系中，它來自土地、生財器具、資本與人工；而在新經濟體系中，它來自「眼球、速度、服務、關係和供應鍊。」
這種經濟中，成本不重要，重要的是知識。

過去，帶著創意找金主， 現在，捧著鈔票搶人才！

詹宏志認為，掌握網路經濟的特性，誰能運用知識，提出一個獨特的網路構想、一個利基的經營模式，並強調組織的速度、擴大服務並迅速成長，誰就能成為網路經濟的贏家，至於經營所需的資本，一則不高，二則資本擁有者也會爭相湧向這些真正有創意的經營模式。
現今的現象是，資金擁有者拚命想敲開知識擁有者的大門。數位聯合科技總經理程嘉君與PC home Online網路家庭總經理李宏麟，近日不斷面對一批批絡繹於途的創投業者與投資者，想爭相投入他們的事業。
有創意、能將創意落實為完整經營模式的人，根本不愁找不到資金。雅虎吸引來自日本軟體銀行的資金，成為今日網路股的天之驕子；資迅人科技吸引了英特爾的資金，是台灣以知識創業的樣板；新浪網吸引了戴爾電腦的資金，為開創華人入口網站的企圖再添一道助力。去年十二月，出身網景技術副總裁的McCue所開創的Tellme Network，首次招募創投基金，就吸引矽谷最知名的Benchmark與 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers等創投公司一舉投入4700萬美元，提供他們進軍互動媒體服務所需的資金。他們的網頁上，就有一幅公司員工共舉裝滿香檳的塑膠杯，相互祝賀的圖片。
此情此景，讓資金擁有者開始捧著錢，四處追尋投資機會，反應出無限資源追逐有限機會的經濟現實。矽谷有成群的創投，四處搜獵有創意、有潛力的投資標的。

嘴上無毛、身無學位沒關係， 網上工夫、美西關係更值錢！

看準網路與智慧財產產業的高成長與獲利契機，國內最大的電腦集團宏碁，不僅集資百億以投資百家網路公司，並將組織結構重新調整，成立宏智、宏網兩個次集團。全球知名的安達信顧問公司（Andersen Consulting），甘冒被指責將造成利益衝突的大不諱，集資十億美元，成立創投，將在未來五年，投資網際網路公司。
更有甚著，資金擁有者如果不能為知識擁有者帶來金錢以外的附加價值，以資金就想坐收借貸孳息的機會也愈來愈小。以存放利差賺取利潤的傳統銀行業，生存空間已日益狹窄。證券承銷商、投信、投顧、投資銀行、創投等新興金融業，獲利的重心，都來自他們為顧客所提供的服務與附加價值。一般稍具理財概念的民眾，都相信把錢投入股市或基金，獲利通常都優於存放在安全雖然無虞，但每年也只能賺取10%以下利息的銀行。
然而，要在股市獲利，依然需要知識，以最當紅的雅虎為例，一股可以買6000股臺灣營建業上市公司的股票，股價超過400美元，本益比高達2500以上，但是它眼下的投資報酬率，卻僅僅0.004%，遠遠不如存入銀行；一位企業人士只能冷眼提醒：「投資人以他們的熱情與幻想，成就網路新貴。」
網路新貴能在短短時間裡，累積百億美元身價，自有他們過人之處。何薇玲一語道出網路新貴的特徵：「嘴上無毛、身無學位、網上工夫、美西關係」。網路新貴創業時固然多半身無分文，但他們普遍呈現創業的企圖、熱情、膽識，最重要的是：他們憑藉知識所構思的經營模式。獲得創投青睞的Tellme Network，經營模式是透過該公司的加值服務，用戶可以利用傳統電話以語音上網，讓用戶享有網上的「內容、通訊與商務，」創辦人McCue宣稱。

想變成智價致富的金領階級嗎？ 看看大前研一是怎麼走過來的

即使知識掛帥，網路新貴一樣得經歷創業的艱辛付出。資迅人在師大旁被笑稱為狗窩的破舊公寓起家。雅虎楊致遠在租來的拖車裡通宵建立網路搜尋引擎。創辦網上網（Abovenet）的段曉雷，創業初期連房租、律師費都付不出來，只好以股票權充，創造了兩個借他錢的意外富翁。網景（Netscape）創辦人克拉克（Jim Clark）形容網景開發領航員（Navigator）瀏覽器軟體時，工程師們連續數個月辛苦工作的情景：「一切發展正順利的進行，日以繼夜的工作，常常深夜到丹尼餐廳（美國連鎖平價餐廳、通常開在汽車旅館附近）吃早餐。」
隨著網景上市大放異采，這些日以繼夜的工程師都在一夕致富。克拉克本人，早已擁有私人飛機，並在全球各地廣置豪宅。智價工作者，是未來最搶手的人才。元智大學遠東管理講座教授許士軍分析，在知識世紀中，個人的重要性與地位顯然將大為提升。背後的原因在於，工業社會中，生產力來自大量的生產設備與大量資本，而非個人；而在知識社會中，生產力來自個人的知識與其應用。
讓自己成為具有價值的智價工作者，是新經濟時代工作者寄望成功致富，不被時代淘汰的必然選擇。麥肯錫顧問公司日本分公司社長大前研一在他的著作《上班族生死存亡戰》中指出，上班族可分為「單純勞動集中型」「知識勞動集中型」與「知識白領」三類。其中收入最高的自然為第三種，以知識附加價值的成果來決定薪資，許士軍甚至稱之為「金領階級」，他們必須和分布全球的夥伴工作，時常保持聯繫溝通，並具備多項工作能力。
要成為知識白領，當然要付出過人的努力。詹宏志認為，新經濟時代，工作者必須具備下列人格特質：對新生事物的開放與熱情、對改變的認識與接受、對異質文化的了解與包容、對速度的熟悉適應。大前研一則以自己為例，說明他在七○年代，從初進麥肯錫，被人譏為「公牛身上的乳房」（完全沒用的人），經過過人的努力而登上社長，每日拿到150萬日幣報酬的過程。
當時，大前研一每天晚上在公司研讀過去的資料，直到搭最後一班電車回家；用錄音的方式，想像自己面對客戶提出解決問題的方法，並反覆修正；在電車上，將第一眼看到的廣告，列為向自己發問的題目，反覆構思如何為客戶提出提高銷售量的方案，用什麼方法宣傳、銷售，如此日復一日，訓練自己「對客戶提出問題馬上能在腦子裡分析、找答案」的迅速反應能力。
就像詹宏志在《電腦上班族》雜誌創刊號的發刊詞上所說的，工作者必須經常自問：當下一個工作來臨時，你在哪裡？
你重視眼前的金錢利益，還是未來的知識？
十年前，一位以創意為業的企畫人曾經感慨，做這行沒前途，「點子不說出來，沒人會付你錢，點子一說出來，人家聽了就走，也不會付你錢」。時代變了，下一世代，知識有價，已經無庸置疑。

跨領域優勢：多元職能

大前研一在上班族生死存亡戰這本書中提到，人力會出現三極化，當中最具有價值及競爭優勢的是「知識白領」，以知識附加價值成果決定薪資，而知識白領的一項特色就是具備高度的多項工作能力。

工作逐漸模糊 趁早培養核心才能
德利多富服務部門協理吳秩顯，系統整合、行銷、服務的工作都從事過，累積了極大能量，讓他不僅不畏懼中年職場危機，還成為人力仲介頻頻接觸的搶手人才。
　　
長江人力資源研究中心總經理高明智指出，多項職能可以有幾種含意，可以說是第二專長，也可以說是廣泛性專業，以及核心才能。《新工作潮》一書中指出，工作會消失，但核心才能永遠都存在。高明智認為，未來職場競爭會更激烈，也就更需要核心才能。什麼是核心才能？高明智提出，將知識、技能與態度三者，形成綜合性能力，並突顯與他人不同之處，然後融入個人特質，便形成無法取代的核心才能。
　　
他以自己的弟弟為例，目前擔任一家數據機製造商的總經理，介面卡、OS（作業系統）及硬碟都懂，而在台灣要找到這三種皆懂的人才恐怕不多，加上他曾經被派到英國工作，有國際觀，將這些元素結合，就形成了核心才能。
　　
高明智還提到另一項概念「廣泛專業」，對於想要成為領導階層者尤其重要；生產、銷售、人力資源、研發、財務五項當中，「會一項只能當課長，會兩項頂多當經理等中階主管，會三項才能當總經理」他說。
　　
鉅林資訊行銷專員楊炳勳，本來做的是技術，後來因為興趣轉做業務、行銷，技術背景出身的他認為，有了技術為基礎，可以更加清楚客戶的需求，也增加自己專業權威，工作之餘還在政大公企中心上行銷課程，因為他認為深處高科技產業，敏銳度更要高。
　　
像楊炳勳一樣從技術轉業務、管理的大有人在，工作表現更是不輸學商的，在高科技公司更是位居要津，像是趨勢科技台灣區總經理丘立全、物訊科技總經理方光輝都是如此......

INSIDER BUYING: Abterra, Oceanus, Design Studio

*ABTERRA: General Nice Resource (HK) is the parent company of Abterra.

Abterra, a supply chain manager of resources and minerals, said recently that it is likely to benefit from rising coking coal prices. Reuters reported on 28 June that China's steel production is soaring way over estimates and the country had paid for a shipment of coking coal at a price higher than the benchmark price.

The Jiaozhong coking coal mine of Abterra.
Abterra is on track to become a sizeable player in the cking coal industry. Its CEO, Jaffe Lau, said in a press release: “We have set ambitious targets and have the resources to deliver on those targets. The target of the Group is to continue to make strategic acquisitions of coking coal mines to grow our production capacity to 5million tonnes per annum in the next 2-3 years.”

In another announcement, in early June, Abterra said it had entered into a share swap agreement with a HK strategic partner.

The noteworthy point is that Abterra will swap 255 million Abterra shares at 12.3 cents apiece – significantly higher than the market price then and currently of 5.5 cents - in exchange for 385 million of LeRoi Holdings at HKD 43.5 cents.

The two companies will explore investment opportunities together in the coking coal, coke and iron ore mining industry.

One of the abalone meals at Ah-Yat-Oceanus joint-venture restaurant chain in China.
* OCEANUS: Prior to the emergence of Capital Group of Companies as a substantial shareholder, Oceanus had obtained direct funding of S$73.5 million from two private equity firms.

They are Ocean Wonder International Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of AIF Capital Asia III L.P, and Hupomone Capital Partners Singapore Pte Ltd and strategic investors.

Dr Ng Cher Yew, Executive Chairman of Oceanus, commented, “During this difficult time of the financial crunch and economic uncertainty, we are pleased to announce that the investment interest in this financing exercise was overwhelming.”

Oceanus is the world’s largest land-based producer of premium quality Japanese abalones.

Various aspects of the apartments at The Reflections @ Keppel are installed by Design Studio.
DESIGN STUDIO FURNITURE MANUFACTURER: The leading premier furniture manufacturer, product and interior fitting-out specialist in Singapore reported a record net profit of S$4.3 million in 1Q2009 ended 31 March 2009, a 153.2% surge from that of 1Q2008.

Net cash flow from operating activities remains strong at S$3.3 million.

Cash balance of S$33.0 million as at 31 March 2009 translates to cash per share of S$0.13.

Wong Swee Chun, 71, is the founder of Straits Construction Co. Pte Ltd, a builder of HDB flats. Mr Wong not only has a direct interest of 4.57% in Design Studio but also a deemed interest in the 51.98 million shares (20.47%) held by Straits Construction.

Residential leasing - the laws of demand and supply

RENTS of private residential property have been correcting since August last year, in line with the weak economy. While the traditionally busy period in April saw a surprise 2 per cent spike in rental values, the question is whether a more sustainable recovery is in sight. To get an answer to this, we have to look at the supply-demand dynamics in the residential market.

A quarter of Singapore's 4.84 million residents are foreigners, and this is the group that drives the leasing market. This is because Singaporeans generally don't rent, choosing to live with their parents until they can buy their own homes.

Employment in the services sector grew by over 30 per cent in 2007, especially in financial and professional services, according to numbers from the Ministry of Manpower. This is a major factor accounting for the surge in the expatriate workforce. Foreign employment stood at 1.06 million, or 35 per cent of the total workforce of 2.95 million.

The profile of the expatriate workforce has evolved through the years. Expatriate employment is no longer limited to top management posts and now includes middle management and executive functions. There is a wider variety of expatriates as well -from Europeans and Americans to other Asian nationalities; and from singles to couples with teenage kids. Depending on demographics and employment status, their accommodation preferences vary.

For expatriates, location is a key consideration. They would prefer to stay 1) near transportation and amenities (MRT station, malls, even expatriate clubs), 2) near schools, and 3) close to the workplace. Residential projects that meet these criteria will generally see steady demand which means they can command good rentals.

Expatriate packages
Expatriate packages have been revised with the changing times. It is rare today to see the typical full expatriate relocation package that covers housing, car, club and school costs. With tighter budgets, mid-management expatriates are now mostly offered a package under localised terms that covers accommodation costs. Or it may be a hybrid package that offers a mix of benefits.

The expat housing terms usually fall into three categories. The first, a corporate lease, allows the landlord to deal directly with the employer. It is most commonly adopted for a full expatriate or hybrid relocation package.

The other two forms of leases, namely 1) corporate lease with personal indemnity and 2) personal lease, are usually signed under a package with localised terms. Under these terms, the employee is responsible for the expenses under the lease. The only difference is that under a personal lease, the leasing contract is between the employee and the landlord. Under a corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, the employer signs the leasing contract with the landlord while the personal indemnity is borne by the employee.

Under the latter two leases, the tenant bears the burden of any additional cost in a lease should it exceed the allocated budget. If the rent is below the allocated budget, the tenant who takes up a personal lease enjoys the savings. For the tenant who uses the corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, any savings on rent is split between the company and the tenant. This burden of costs/savings will have a major impact when it comes to rental negotiations.

Supply
A collective sale frenzy in 2006 and 2007 saw a slew of prime residential projects taken off the market for redevelopment, especially in districts 9, 10 and 11. There were close to 100 such developments transacted in the two years, which reduced the leasing inventory by about 6,000 units.

In the interim, the impact of this large withdrawal has been greatly felt. Of course, this removed stock will eventually return to the market as new supply. While this will give tenants more choices, landlords will face greater competition, especially if the economy doesn't improve and demand remains muted.

There are an estimated 4,000 prime residential units due to be completed by 2011. These include both luxury (usually with larger units) and typical prime units. Following the popularity of luxury units during the property boom, there are a few such projects scheduled to come into the market in the next two years. They include The Marq (66 units), The Hilltops (241 units), Ritz Carlton Residences (58 units), Ardmore II (118 units), Grange Infinite (68 units) and Orchard Residences (175 units).

This does not include the projects sold en bloc to developers for redevelopment into luxury condominiums which have yet to get their sales licences. As such, the names or number of units in these developments are not known. Among these projects are Ardmore III (Wheelock Properties), Pin Tjoe Court (Pontiac Land Group), Anderson 18 (joint venture between Wing Tai and City Developments), The Ardmore (SC Global), Lucky Tower (City Developments), Beverly Mai (HPL Properties) and Grangeford (OUE).

Rents are expected to come under severe pressure when ample new supply comes onstream at a time when market demand is weakening.

Overview and outlook
With the dampened sentiment in the corporate sector, housing budgets have seen cuts of 10-20 per cent. Expatriates, especially those on personal lease or corporate residential lease with personal indemnity, will be motivated to downsize or be on the lookout for discounted rents as they seek greater savings.

The softening demand and the new supply of some 2,000 non-landed units in the first quarter have put further downward pressure on rents. Some large completed projects include Rivergate (545 units), The Suites at Central (157 units) and the remaining City Square Residences (estimated at 439 units). In addition, there were about 1,600 previously en bloc units that have been released back into the rental market as short-term leases at much discounted rental rates.

These are the main reasons for the major rental correction of about 18 per cent over the past few months. Any recovery of the leasing market in April 2009 can be attributed to the following factors. Traditionally, the months from April to July are the seasonal highs in lease take-ups and renewals. Leases are usually signed to coincide with the summer break in international schools.

Islandwide demand has remained fairly stable as the retrenchment of the expatriate workforce in the financial sector was offset by new hires in other industries such as R&D and biomedical science. In addition, there has been restructuring of some financial institutions where business units in Europe and the US have been relocated to Singapore to tap into Asia's growing wealth.

A recent survey of five large, Singapore-based moving companies by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore has shown that inbound shipments rose more than 10 per cent from 2007 to 2008 and outbound shipments increased nearly 8 per cent from 2007 to 2008. However, they are expected to drop by 2 per cent in 2009.

As a cautionary note, there could be a delay in the correction of expatriate demand as most expatriates today hold personal employment passes (PEP). Under this scheme, PEP holders do not need to re-apply for a new employment pass when changing jobs. They also can stay for up to six months here without any valid employment compared to only two months previously. Should the employment market remain weak, we may begin to see a delayed exodus of these expatriates if they do not get re-employed soon.

Leasing demand may also soften as more expatriates weigh the attractions of buying their own home as opposed to leasing it. With the current low interest rates and discounted housing prices, it is possible that expatriates who have been living in Singapore for some time may seek a more permanent accommodation and residential status.

Having said that, supply remains limited this year, especially for larger luxury units. Existing projects such as The Claymore, Claymore Point, Four Seasons Park, Ardmore Park, The Colonnade, Regency Park, and Yong An Park are enjoying high occupancies. As such, renovated units in these older developments are still commanding high rentals.

Similarly, supply of quality residential projects in prime districts remains limited this year. The spillover demand for luxury projects will likely benefit these sub-markets. Residential projects in the prime districts are still the preferred choice for many expatriates.

But with more completions in the pipeline, impending supply remains the biggest concern for the market. Unless the global economy picks up and expatriate inflows increase, prospects for the leasing market here will be bearish, particularly in the luxury segment.

Tips for investing in property

REAL estate is among the world's safest investments in that it cannot be lost, stolen or carried away. If managed with reasonable care, its value can be maintained or even enhanced. In Singapore, a property cycle typically lasts four to seven years.

As such, a property investor should have a similar investment horizon to ride out any market vagaries so as to best enjoy rental and capital appreciation over time. Empirical evidence has shown that the longer the investment horizon, the greater the likelihood of making a profit, and higher profits at that.

For example, a unit at Ardmore Park which was bought for $4.4 million in 2005 was sold in May this year for $6.2 million, representing a healthy profit of about 40 per cent. This has yet to take into account rental income that may have been earned over the period.

Rental yields are an attractive enticement for property investors, giving them a steady stream of cashflow in good times and bad. Typically, gross residential rental yields stand at 3-5 per cent, depending on the location, project and tenure of the property.

Investors seeking rental yields should note that while residential yields have improved markedly since property prices declined from their peak in mid-2008, rents are now correcting, and are likely to continue their slide till year's end at least.

There was a recent spike in rental yields, which is due to rents falling at a slower rate than prices. According to Q1 2009 data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), property prices islandwide have declined by some 21 per cent from the peak while rents have come off some 14 per cent.

High-end residential yields have risen from a low of 2.8 per cent in Q4 2007 to 3.5 per cent in Q1 2009. However, they are expected to stabilise around the long-term average of 3- 3.4 per cent in the near- to mid-term. This is on the expectation that prices will moderate their decline from here while rents remain weak in the face of strong new housing supply this year.

However, residential prices have shown recent signs of consolidation, supported by opportunistic home purchases at discounted prices, introduction of the interest absorption scheme as well as pent-up demand in certain areas.

Leveraging
Positive carry, which is the difference between the cost of financing the property and rental income, looks set to shrink further on falling rents. This is an important factor for investors who look to pay off their mortgages with rental income. But a positive carry still exists and it can be particularly rewarding for those who can finance their properties with a larger portion of equity or a lower loan-to-value ratio.

This is made possible by the current low interest rates - Singapore's three-month interbank rate has steadied near an all-time low of 0.69 per cent since the beginning of the year. This represents an excellent opportunity for property investors to take advantage of relatively low borrowing costs to maximise their return on equity (ROE).

Take for example a studio apartment that costs $400,000, a borrowing cost of 2 per cent per annum and an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio. In this case, a yield of 4 per cent would lead to an ROE of 1.76 per cent. By bringing down the loan-to-value ratio to 60 per cent, ROE would improve to 3.1 per cent. This rate of return is higher than the savings and time deposit rates today.

Taking potential capital appreciation into consideration, ROE could be even higher. Extending the above example, an investor's ROE would rise to 25 per cent on the assumption of a loan-to-value ratio of 60 per cent and capital appreciation of 10 per cent. So, with proper use of leveraging, one can maximise returns.

Location, location, location
Location, location, location is the mantra of those looking to invest in property. It seems easy enough to say 'Let's buy in Orchard Road' or 'Let's buy East Coast' just because these are well-established residential locations. But what are the factors that make a good location? Why do people want to own or rent a property in a given location? These are the demand drivers that we need to understand.

What makes living in Orchard Road attractive? Beyond the glitz of the shopping belt, it is the proximity to international schools, the Central Business District, the up-and-coming Marina Bay Sands integrated resort (IR) as well as the excellent road and rail connectivity to other parts of Singapore.

The future development of the area is also important. The impact of the up-and-coming IR on residential property is probably best demonstrated by the prices fetched by The Sail @ Marina Bay. In 2004, six months before the IRs were confirmed, the price for the first residential tower was launched at $900 per sq ft (psf).

About a year later, about six months after the IR was given the green light, the second tower was launched at $1,080 psf. After that, resale prices escalated to more than $2,000 psf at the peak of the market.

More recently, the government has focused on building up Singapore as a leading R&D hub in Asia and earmarked areas like one-north in Buona Vista for development.

One-north is a 200-hectare project designed to house Singapore's growing biomedical, infocomm and digital media industries. As such, condominiums in the vicinity like one-north Residences have been well received, with many investors buying for potentially good rentals.

Affordability
In times of economic uncertainty, it pays to be prudent. One should be careful not to borrow too much. Maintaining a debt service ratio of 25-30 per cent of income is ideal as it allows some buffer for any rise in mortgage rates.

Savills' affordability index showed that the average household's ability to service its monthly mortgage repayment has improved. From a peak of 40 per cent in Q3 2007, the debt service ratio has dropped to 26 per cent as at Q4 2008, following the steep price declines.

Valuation
It is important to be familiar with property prices in the vicinity to ensure that one does not overpay. Generally, when buying a new property from a developer, you have greater certainty that banks would be able to match the valuation. In the secondary market, buyers would do well to get a bank valuation on the property before committing, to avoid overpaying.

Risks-rewards
Going by past transactions, prime properties - though more volatile - offer better potential for capital appreciation as investors in this segment are perceived to be less price sensitive.

The recent bull cycle saw the average price of residential properties in our basket for Districts 1, 4, 9, 10, and 11 rise from $1,250 psf in Q1 2005 to $2,400 psf in Q4 2007. Since then, the average price has slipped about 30 per cent to $1,640 psf as at Q1 2009. Given a reasonable investment horizon, there is potential for peak prices to be regained again.

When is it a good time to buy? That's a question many buyers ask. Everyone wants to land a good deal given that property is a big-ticket investment. In some instances, just waiting a few months can mean saving tens of thousands of dollars.

However, the reverse is also true - one may end up paying more if the market suddenly turns up. It's never easy trying to call the bottom of a market as one often only knows it in hindsight.

Property market continues riding on buying mood

PROPERTY market activity continued in the first week of last month as more private homes were launched - or re-launched - to ride the buying momentum.

Bukit Sembawang Estates said yesterday that it has sold 50 of the 78 units at Luxus Hills, a 999-year leasehold landed development at Ang Mio Kio, in a preview. Intermediate terrace homes were sold for an average of $1,085 per sq ft of land area, while corner terraces went for an average of $980 psf.


BT understands that agents have also started to market prime projects, including GuocoLand's 272-unit freehold Sophia Residence, City Developments's 85-unit project on the former Garden Hotel site and Wing Tai's 346-unit Ascentia Sky in Alexandra Road.

For Sophia Residences, asking prices range from $1,400-$1,600 psf. For CityDev's project, agents are quoting $1,800-$2,000 psf. At Ascentia Sky, a limited number of units have been released at prices ranging from $1,150- $1,350 psf.

Other developers are re-launching projects. CapitaLand is believed to have re-launched Latitude in the River Valley area last week. Asking prices range from about $1,600-$1,900 psf, a significant decline from $2,600 psf fetched for the 11 units sold from September 2007 to April 2008. Far East Organization re-launched Silversea a few weeks ago, selling some units at $1,250-$1,400 psf.

Developers can be expected to expedite new launches and continue promoting already-launched projects over the next two weeks as the Hungry Ghost month - which is traditionally slow for property sales - draws near.

Sales at recently launched projects have continued apace. 'We visited show flats for a few mid and prime projects last weekend,' said DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee in a July-6 note. 'More developers are now offering additional price discounts of 2-5 per cent during soft launches to incentivise buyers.'

Prices rose 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q2, Mr Lee said. 'Along with a flat stock market performance, we believe this has led to a less fervent show-flat turnout. However, sales volumes remain healthy.'

In an update, Far East Organization said yesterday that it has sold 130 apartments at its 280-unit Vista Residences at Thomson.

Separately, Credo Real Estate yesterday released for sale by tender a cluster of 18 shophouses at Joo Chiat/Onan Road. The properties are owned by a family trust, which is seeking offers in the region of $25 million to $30 million. The freehold site is 35,440 sq ft and the total gross floor area of the shophouses is 62,489 sq ft.

Making sense of housing loans

SENTIMENT seems to have made a 180-degree turn in the property market in recent months with buyers coming out in force as the economic outlook stabilises. Sellers have been known to up asking prices by 10 per cent or more. Some home buyers who were taking a wait and see attitude a few months ago rushed in to buy properties.

But before you join the rush, remember that buying a property is a long-term commitment. Make sure you can comfortably service your mortgage by capping your debt-service ratio at 35 per cent of your gross income. On top of that you should set aside enough funds to service at least six months of your housing loan instalments. This would provide some buffer should you suffer a pay cut or job loss.


Home buyers might also want to take note that supply of homes should be ample, going forward. Between 2009 and 2013, a total of 55,838 condo units are expected to be completed, according to numbers from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The supply more than meets the average demand of about 8,000 units a year.

Some developers are offering an interest absorption scheme (IAS), where the developer helps the buyer pay the interest on the housing loan while the property is under construction. Of course, such a scheme typically raises the sale price by 2 to 5 per cent, so there really is no free lunch.

Also, note that housing loan packages tied to the IAS generally charge higher interest rates. The difference can be 0.5 per cent or more. And because the IAS is offered by a single bank, taking it means losing the freedom to shop around for the best loan package. So you could forgo savings in interest of several thousand dollars.

Under the IAS, only the interest is paid while the principal outstanding is not reduced. Thus, when your property is completed, your housing loan outstanding will be higher than that of someone who has been making progressive payments.

Lastly, should the developer get into financial difficulties, the buyer is still liable to the bank for the interest on the housing loan.

Short loan tenor vs long loan tenor

Some people choose to pay off their housing loan as quickly as possible to save on interest payments. On the other hand, there are people who want to stretch the loan repayment period to the maximum so they have smaller monthly cash outflows.

Instead of going to either extreme, you could consider matching the loan tenor to your intended retirement age. For instance, if you're 40, you can take up a 20-year loan that will be paid off by the time you retire at 60.

Interest rate outlook

Sibor or the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate at which banks lend or borrow local dollars from one another in Singapore. The two main factors that affect Sibor are the United States Federal Reserve rate and liquidity, or availability of funds, in the local banking sector.

The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 0.25 per cent, a historical low. Sibor has stayed slightly below 0.7 per cent in the past six months and is likely to remain there as long as US interest rates are low and liquidity here is ample.

If you want certainty of interest rates for the next few years, then go for a fixed-rate housing loan, which can be as low as 1.5 per cent for the first year.

So what is the difference between Sibor and SOR? The latter stands for the Swap Offer Rate, which comprises the Singapore Interbank Offer Rate plus market reserve costs. It represents the average cost of funds used by banks in Singapore for commercial lending.

Swap also accounts for the exchange rate of the US$ vs S$. Thus, SOR tends to be more volatile than Sibor. If you want lower volatility, go for a loan pegged to Sibor rather than SOR.

Should you aim to be debt free as soon as possible?

Most personal finance books recommend that you should aim to be debt free as soon as possible. In my opinion, as long as you have not overborrowed, you can plan to pay off your housing loan by the time you retire.

If you think about it, a housing loan is the cheapest loan on the market. In Singapore, the interest rate on a housing loan is currently about 2 per cent, while a car loan is about 4 per cent, a renovation loan 7 per cent and a credit card 24 per cent!

So it is difficult for people to fail to beat housing loan interest rates. Why? Imagine that you know nothing about investing. Just putting money into endowment savings plans gives you annual returns of about 4 per cent over a 20-year period.

Say a person has a $200,000 housing loan to be repaid over 20 years. Assuming an interest rate of 4.5 per cent on the loan, the total interest paid over 20 years is only $105,515.

If he has $200,000 in cash or CPF savings and uses this money to earn a yield of 3.5 per cent, in 20 years, he would have earned $168,453!

Most people forget that interest on a housing loan is calculated on a reducing balance basis while savings compound (interest is added on interest).

Thus, you can get ahead financially if you focus on making your cash or CPF funds work harder for you than by trying to pay off your housing loan as soon as possible.

To get an unbiased view of the housing loan packages offered by banks, you can talk to an independent mortgage broker. After all, bank officers can only offer packages from the bank they work for.

Typically, the service offered by a mortgage broker is free as they are paid separately by the banks.