Late Jan to early Feb 2008 - market move to 3850, due to good whole year report of 2007 result - workers receive bouns and pay rise
Late Feb 2008 - Market move down, workers spend all money, result over
May 2008- market still down
July 2008 -market dive, report result no good for 1q 2008, US banks write off losses
Sept 2008 -US market recover thanks to restructuring of banks, STI move to 4000
Nov 2008 - market move back to 3300
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Sunday, December 9, 2007
積 極 減 持 等 位 再 買
繼 續 積 極 減 持 ， 沒 有 興 趣 在 接 近 30000 點 以 及 聯 儲 局 會 議 日 子 才 入 場 做 快 閃 黨 ， 自 問 身 手 不 夠 敏 捷 ， 膽 識 亦 大 不 如 前 。 總 要 有 人 提 供 貨 源 給 快 閃 黨 行 動 ， 就 蝕 底 少 收 一 點 ， 希 望 皆 大 歡 喜 。 在 股 市 作 戰 ， 不 外 是 貪 婪 和 恐 懼 兩 大 情 緒 所 主 宰 。 跌 市 時 博 繼 續 跌 ， 現 在 又 貪 心 想 在 幾 日 內 短 炒 ， 去 賺 盡 最 後 的 升 浪 ， 主 因 應 是 自 命 不 凡 。 叻 仔 在 賭 場 多 數 沒 有 好 結 果 ， 自 己 寧 願 做 仔 ， 捱 義 氣 接 貨 忍 受 心 理 折 磨 ， 回 升 則 賺 少 一 點 求 心 安 理 得 ， 可 能 才 是 克 服 貪 婪 和 恐 懼 的 最 佳 實 戰 方 法 。
順 勢 死 守 好 過 炒 出 炒 入
近 期 最 明 顯 的 轉 變 ， 是 美 元 轉 強 ， 這 一 點 令 自 己 相 當 不 舒 服 ， 甚 至 黃 金 長 倉 也 有 點 擔 心 ， 不 過 策 略 一 定 是 死 守 ， 頂 多 短 炒 跑 數 去 幫 補 。 美 元 的 強 勢 ， 應 是 市 場 在 平 淡 倉 ， 因 此 美 股 的 回 升 ， 同 樣 極 可 能 只 是 平 倉 盤 所 帶 動 ， 並 不 是 升 浪 的 開 始 。 港 股 形 勢 當 然 比 美 股 好 ， 可 是 本 地 地 產 股 及 銀 行 股 三 扒 兩 撥 勁 升 甚 多 ， 沒 有 理 由 冒 險 高 追 ， 中 資 股 氣 勢 只 一 般 ， 應 該 有 等 待 的 空 間 。 看 不 透 後 市 之 外 ， 時 近 年 尾 也 是 戰 意 下 降 的 主 因 ， 今 年 幾 上 幾 落 ， 連 場 大 戰 ， 身 心 都 相 當 勞 累 ， 而 且 在 賽 後 悟 出 一 個 道 理 ， 就 是 不 必 過 份 勤 力 ， 掌 握 一 些 大 趨 勢 ， 回 報 反 而 更 好 。 例 如 美 元 及 商 品 在 8 月 尾 後 根 本 是 單 邊 市 ， 只 不 過 順 勢 而 行 是 知 易 行 難 而 已 。 近 來 死 守 黃 金 好 倉 ， 便 是 一 個 策 略 上 的 調 節 。 短 線 投 機 也 不 必 太 多 行 動 ， 過 份 貼 市 只 會 被 市 況 牽 走 。 耐 心 等 待 下 一 次 出 擊 的 機 會 ， 勝 算 和 回 報 都 會 更 高 。 如 果 參 考 印 度 股 市 ， 甚 至 強 勢 藍 籌 如 生 （ 011 ） 、 新 地 （ 016 ） 等 ， 繼 續 上 升 並 非 機 會 太 低 ， 只 是 入 市 講 求 值 博 率 ， 最 大 利 好 因 素 已 反 映 甚 多 ， 客 觀 證 據 又 不 夠 強 。 股 市 日 日 開 ， 耐 心 等 待 總 有 機 會 ， 此 刻 絕 非 理 想 下 注 時 機 。
順 勢 死 守 好 過 炒 出 炒 入
近 期 最 明 顯 的 轉 變 ， 是 美 元 轉 強 ， 這 一 點 令 自 己 相 當 不 舒 服 ， 甚 至 黃 金 長 倉 也 有 點 擔 心 ， 不 過 策 略 一 定 是 死 守 ， 頂 多 短 炒 跑 數 去 幫 補 。 美 元 的 強 勢 ， 應 是 市 場 在 平 淡 倉 ， 因 此 美 股 的 回 升 ， 同 樣 極 可 能 只 是 平 倉 盤 所 帶 動 ， 並 不 是 升 浪 的 開 始 。 港 股 形 勢 當 然 比 美 股 好 ， 可 是 本 地 地 產 股 及 銀 行 股 三 扒 兩 撥 勁 升 甚 多 ， 沒 有 理 由 冒 險 高 追 ， 中 資 股 氣 勢 只 一 般 ， 應 該 有 等 待 的 空 間 。 看 不 透 後 市 之 外 ， 時 近 年 尾 也 是 戰 意 下 降 的 主 因 ， 今 年 幾 上 幾 落 ， 連 場 大 戰 ， 身 心 都 相 當 勞 累 ， 而 且 在 賽 後 悟 出 一 個 道 理 ， 就 是 不 必 過 份 勤 力 ， 掌 握 一 些 大 趨 勢 ， 回 報 反 而 更 好 。 例 如 美 元 及 商 品 在 8 月 尾 後 根 本 是 單 邊 市 ， 只 不 過 順 勢 而 行 是 知 易 行 難 而 已 。 近 來 死 守 黃 金 好 倉 ， 便 是 一 個 策 略 上 的 調 節 。 短 線 投 機 也 不 必 太 多 行 動 ， 過 份 貼 市 只 會 被 市 況 牽 走 。 耐 心 等 待 下 一 次 出 擊 的 機 會 ， 勝 算 和 回 報 都 會 更 高 。 如 果 參 考 印 度 股 市 ， 甚 至 強 勢 藍 籌 如 生 （ 011 ） 、 新 地 （ 016 ） 等 ， 繼 續 上 升 並 非 機 會 太 低 ， 只 是 入 市 講 求 值 博 率 ， 最 大 利 好 因 素 已 反 映 甚 多 ， 客 觀 證 據 又 不 夠 強 。 股 市 日 日 開 ， 耐 心 等 待 總 有 機 會 ， 此 刻 絕 非 理 想 下 注 時 機 。
Monday, November 12, 2007
Rebound sigh
Rebound sighs:
1.
RSI below 35 to 30 - condition= Volumn low (contra people, retail investors,short term traders and short sellers are mostly out, long term buyers waiting to come in)
2.
MA2 crossing MA8, with MA8 line turning upward (if MA8 turning downward, don't jump in)
3.
Index stop dropping and start to consolidate.
1.
RSI below 35 to 30 - condition= Volumn low (contra people, retail investors,short term traders and short sellers are mostly out, long term buyers waiting to come in)
2.
MA2 crossing MA8, with MA8 line turning upward (if MA8 turning downward, don't jump in)
3.
Index stop dropping and start to consolidate.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
高科技股未來升幅勝國企紅籌
互聯網時代Roaring 90s終於在2000年3月結束，引發2000年3月至2002年10月大熊市。上一次互聯網超級大牛市結束至今已超過七年，今天高速寬頻已成為互聯網標準，漸漸取代過去甚慢及較昂貴撥號服務。訊號以微波科技叫IEEE 802.16「WiMAX」標準取代「有線寬頻」，進入真正互聯網革命時代，估計IEEE 802.16微波傳遞將漸成世界標準（Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers，簡稱IEEE）。只要建立一個WiMAX收發站，便可覆蓋三十公里地區，利用微波傳遞大量訊號。日後接收微波訊息硬件及軟件將大量湧現，引發另一場互聯網革命，手機、手提電腦或PDA無論在何處都可無線上網，部分高科技股未來股價可能上升五倍、十倍甚至二十倍。換言之，另一場高科技大牛市早已形成，漸漸進入高速上升周期，令互聯網、電視機、PDA、手機、手提電腦等進入另一新領域。相信部分高科技股未來升幅甚至連過去國企、紅籌股升幅亦自愧不如。寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌。今時今日高科技項目係當頭起，國企、紅籌股係當頭跌。各位仲記得喬布斯重返蘋果後推出iPod，從此改變聽音樂習慣，亦令蘋果股價上升幾十倍……。IEEE 802.16面世，相信亦從此改變上網習慣。今天唔少評論員在談美林如何如何、大摩如何如何、JP摩根大通如何如何。本欄讀者一年前已明白次按遲早出事而避開。
今天唔少人評論港股直通車可能延期開出，作為《信報》讀者，相信早已在過去兩星期大量減持國企、紅籌股矣……。知識就係財富，有人戲言GDP等於Grossly Disappointing Press（經常令人失望傳媒）。恒生指數經過十一星期上升，升幅65％以上，再加上同RSI出現三浪背馳，國企、紅籌股平均O三十七倍以上，又點會有運行？不過，股市一早已流行牛熊共舞，唔同行業有唔同盛衰循環周期。東山下雨西山晴，在跌市中仍有唔少高科技股股價企得好硬，未受恒指回落1500點所影響。Bad market, good stock picking，在跌市中一樣有唔少股份逆市上升。
Tom Clangus GMT Capital主席管理32億美元資產，佢估計年底道指可見12000點，即下跌12％。QCI Asset Management主要投資策略員Edward Shill估計，年底道指見11600點、明年6月見10000點。
現年七十七歲厲以寧，係1980年代初最先在中國提出股份制（我老曹同佢亦有一面之緣），係中國最具影響力經濟學家之一。佢首次接受記者訪問談內地股市，佢話股價往往受心理作用影響；反之，經濟學家分析股市往往都唔準。佢反對A股O高就係泡沫理論。1929年美國係面對供應過剩情況，華爾街危機才爆發，上述情況未在中國出現。雖然A股時有波動，但牛市態勢未變，湧入股市人仍在增加。經濟處於唔同階段，不能單純用O說明。
一、目前中國係發展中國家，GDP增長率較快，容易出現高O。
二、人民幣仍在升值中，各國資金仍湧向中國。
三、中國市場還在不斷擴大，企業發展潛力仍未充分發揮。因此佢只同意目前A股偏高需要調整，即使有泡沫，目前仍太早預測佢會爆破。
互聯網時代Roaring 90s終於在2000年3月結束，引發2000年3月至2002年10月大熊市。上一次互聯網超級大牛市結束至今已超過七年，今天高速寬頻已成為互聯網標準，漸漸取代過去甚慢及較昂貴撥號服務。訊號以微波科技叫IEEE 802.16「WiMAX」標準取代「有線寬頻」，進入真正互聯網革命時代，估計IEEE 802.16微波傳遞將漸成世界標準（Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers，簡稱IEEE）。只要建立一個WiMAX收發站，便可覆蓋三十公里地區，利用微波傳遞大量訊號。日後接收微波訊息硬件及軟件將大量湧現，引發另一場互聯網革命，手機、手提電腦或PDA無論在何處都可無線上網，部分高科技股未來股價可能上升五倍、十倍甚至二十倍。換言之，另一場高科技大牛市早已形成，漸漸進入高速上升周期，令互聯網、電視機、PDA、手機、手提電腦等進入另一新領域。相信部分高科技股未來升幅甚至連過去國企、紅籌股升幅亦自愧不如。寧買當頭起，莫買當頭跌。今時今日高科技項目係當頭起，國企、紅籌股係當頭跌。各位仲記得喬布斯重返蘋果後推出iPod，從此改變聽音樂習慣，亦令蘋果股價上升幾十倍……。IEEE 802.16面世，相信亦從此改變上網習慣。今天唔少評論員在談美林如何如何、大摩如何如何、JP摩根大通如何如何。本欄讀者一年前已明白次按遲早出事而避開。
今天唔少人評論港股直通車可能延期開出，作為《信報》讀者，相信早已在過去兩星期大量減持國企、紅籌股矣……。知識就係財富，有人戲言GDP等於Grossly Disappointing Press（經常令人失望傳媒）。恒生指數經過十一星期上升，升幅65％以上，再加上同RSI出現三浪背馳，國企、紅籌股平均O三十七倍以上，又點會有運行？不過，股市一早已流行牛熊共舞，唔同行業有唔同盛衰循環周期。東山下雨西山晴，在跌市中仍有唔少高科技股股價企得好硬，未受恒指回落1500點所影響。Bad market, good stock picking，在跌市中一樣有唔少股份逆市上升。
Tom Clangus GMT Capital主席管理32億美元資產，佢估計年底道指可見12000點，即下跌12％。QCI Asset Management主要投資策略員Edward Shill估計，年底道指見11600點、明年6月見10000點。
現年七十七歲厲以寧，係1980年代初最先在中國提出股份制（我老曹同佢亦有一面之緣），係中國最具影響力經濟學家之一。佢首次接受記者訪問談內地股市，佢話股價往往受心理作用影響；反之，經濟學家分析股市往往都唔準。佢反對A股O高就係泡沫理論。1929年美國係面對供應過剩情況，華爾街危機才爆發，上述情況未在中國出現。雖然A股時有波動，但牛市態勢未變，湧入股市人仍在增加。經濟處於唔同階段，不能單純用O說明。
一、目前中國係發展中國家，GDP增長率較快，容易出現高O。
二、人民幣仍在升值中，各國資金仍湧向中國。
三、中國市場還在不斷擴大，企業發展潛力仍未充分發揮。因此佢只同意目前A股偏高需要調整，即使有泡沫，目前仍太早預測佢會爆破。
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
落後接力炒上
恒指又升千多點，大戶輪流炒，不斷以落後股接力，目的昭然若揭，就是要將指數挾上高位結算，挾得越高就越好，皆因在期指及場外期權的賭注大得驚人，好友自然得勢不饒人。
當期指結算後，目的已達，市況才能真實反映市場上的資金情況。周三晚FOMC會公佈議息結果，市場大部份分析員皆認為一定會減1/4 厘，若然到時減半厘的話，大市仍有機會再放多一次煙花。
故此，淡友暫時仍須等待。
上周大市靠地產股帶動上升，昨日所見，龍頭股新地（016）已見有沽壓，收市升幅收窄。昨日仍見長和系繼續造好，本地銀行正醞釀接力而上。
美元在議息前弱勢，歐元企穩1.44美元，若進一步攀升至1.47水平的話，短線便有炒作藉口，大戶又如何會錯過此機會呢？
美股已現危險訊號
現時宏觀的投資市場形勢是：股市升、美元弱、外幣升、商品期貨持續創新高，此乃短期的趨勢，勢不可擋。在全球資金作同樣的決定之時，自然令強者越強，弱者越弱。
但大家要記着，今年2月及8月的調整浪出現之前，情況也是一樣，當強勢市場升到極點之時，只要某些因素出現，資金開始套現，一切皆會逆轉。現時最有機會出現的情況，就是在議息後美元壞消息盡出而反彈，導致一切逆轉，將是股市最危險之時。當中其實已有訊號，就是美元如何弱都好，日圓始終未能上升，到了美元反彈，資金要拆交叉盤之時，便有機會觸發日圓急升，接着便……。
當期指結算後，目的已達，市況才能真實反映市場上的資金情況。周三晚FOMC會公佈議息結果，市場大部份分析員皆認為一定會減1/4 厘，若然到時減半厘的話，大市仍有機會再放多一次煙花。
故此，淡友暫時仍須等待。
上周大市靠地產股帶動上升，昨日所見，龍頭股新地（016）已見有沽壓，收市升幅收窄。昨日仍見長和系繼續造好，本地銀行正醞釀接力而上。
美元在議息前弱勢，歐元企穩1.44美元，若進一步攀升至1.47水平的話，短線便有炒作藉口，大戶又如何會錯過此機會呢？
美股已現危險訊號
現時宏觀的投資市場形勢是：股市升、美元弱、外幣升、商品期貨持續創新高，此乃短期的趨勢，勢不可擋。在全球資金作同樣的決定之時，自然令強者越強，弱者越弱。
但大家要記着，今年2月及8月的調整浪出現之前，情況也是一樣，當強勢市場升到極點之時，只要某些因素出現，資金開始套現，一切皆會逆轉。現時最有機會出現的情況，就是在議息後美元壞消息盡出而反彈，導致一切逆轉，將是股市最危險之時。當中其實已有訊號，就是美元如何弱都好，日圓始終未能上升，到了美元反彈，資金要拆交叉盤之時，便有機會觸發日圓急升，接着便……。
Friday, October 19, 2007
吼反彈買Put
港股仍然出現日升日跌的走勢，正是好淡爭持的格局，恒指打從8月中的底部升上來，筆者皆一直做好友，姑勿論互聯網上的無聊分子如何抹黑，讀者們皆知筆者是一直看好，除了在美國議息前略作退避，在減息後又再度入市，直至恒指升近29000點之時，筆者便建議開始減磅，盡量套現，只可小注短炒。
過去一周筆者一直觀察着即市波動之中，期指及其他衍生工具盤路的變化，發覺最明顯的就是升市減倉、跌市加倉。前日大市急挫，期指倉又加了3006張，相信大戶在暗地裏已開始作出部署，昨日之後彈，相信也只是技術因素而已，跌至28400點10日平均線水平，自然要令大家覺得跌不下。
2個方法造淡倉
現時投資者除了要繼續減磅外，想造淡者可考慮兩個策略：
進取者可在29500點水平造淡倉，升穿30200點止蝕，風險為700點，向下目標27500點（第一站）及25000點（第二站）。
穩陣一點的做法就是等指數跌穿28400點之後，才入市追沽，以28800點止蝕，風險為400點。投資者若嫌期指風險高，可考慮吸納恒指認沽證（9616），小注怡情，但卻有機會帶來意外驚喜。
十七大開會數日，若細心分析的話，應知道一些影響股市的因素已明朗化。當中包括宏調將繼續加強，直通車短期無望啓動，市上傳聞中國投資公司入市之消息純屬虛構。後市如何？也不用畫公仔畫出腸吧！
過去一周筆者一直觀察着即市波動之中，期指及其他衍生工具盤路的變化，發覺最明顯的就是升市減倉、跌市加倉。前日大市急挫，期指倉又加了3006張，相信大戶在暗地裏已開始作出部署，昨日之後彈，相信也只是技術因素而已，跌至28400點10日平均線水平，自然要令大家覺得跌不下。
2個方法造淡倉
現時投資者除了要繼續減磅外，想造淡者可考慮兩個策略：
進取者可在29500點水平造淡倉，升穿30200點止蝕，風險為700點，向下目標27500點（第一站）及25000點（第二站）。
穩陣一點的做法就是等指數跌穿28400點之後，才入市追沽，以28800點止蝕，風險為400點。投資者若嫌期指風險高，可考慮吸納恒指認沽證（9616），小注怡情，但卻有機會帶來意外驚喜。
十七大開會數日，若細心分析的話，應知道一些影響股市的因素已明朗化。當中包括宏調將繼續加強，直通車短期無望啓動，市上傳聞中國投資公司入市之消息純屬虛構。後市如何？也不用畫公仔畫出腸吧！
通脹升溫
無疑，股票的價格是由買賣雙方決定，一旦出現超賣，股價便會下跌，反之亦然。
對香港股市何以屢創新高，且到了近乎不尋常地步，我一直感到大惑不解。究其原因，並非有大量心急買家蜂擁入市，卻是沒有人願意沽貨。國內的情況有異，礙於投資者的經驗尚淺，他們仍未夠成熟去應付市場的瞬息萬變。
上海和深圳俱是內地新興的證券市場，那些「入世未深」的投資者，根本對股票市場運作一竅不通。部分人眼見賺錢容易，便不斷投入資金買股票，結果股價只升不跌。除非內地股市急挫，否則這些容易受騙的新手，仍願意繼續把鈔票放進金魚缸內；而我相信，股市早晚也會出現大調整。
憂通脹加劇
然而，香港人飽經風浪，歷盡了十年前的紅籌股災、○一年的科網股爆破，以及○三年的沙士疫症，危機感較強。經過最近一輪瘋狂升市後，令不少投資者發了一筆橫財，他們已逐步減持股票。故此，本地有很多投資者，正坐擁一大筆現金，伺機再入市。
即使資深的分析員與新聞評論員，對屢創新高的大市也感到慨嘆，甚至被震呆了，惟股市依然長升長有。無人知曉這次升浪何時完結，而早前沽貨後，我們持有八十萬元現金，佔組合資產約一成。上週，我們買入了十萬股陽光房託基金，買入價為二元二角。此基金息率優厚，現價較資產淨值有三成折讓。即使購入陽光，我們仍有近六十萬元現金，對我來說依然偏多。
目前，香港的通脹約百分之三，我擔心未來會加劇。內地進口的食品愈來愈貴，但港元對人民幣卻不斷貶值。油價與租金也不甘後人，不斷攀升；即使地鐵承諾減價，我相信巴士票價也不會下調。此外，減稅能否令消費者直接受惠，亦是一大疑問。所以我寧願買股票，也不欲持有現金，以免現金的購買力被蠶食，況且優質股賺錢只會愈來愈多。
對香港股市何以屢創新高，且到了近乎不尋常地步，我一直感到大惑不解。究其原因，並非有大量心急買家蜂擁入市，卻是沒有人願意沽貨。國內的情況有異，礙於投資者的經驗尚淺，他們仍未夠成熟去應付市場的瞬息萬變。
上海和深圳俱是內地新興的證券市場，那些「入世未深」的投資者，根本對股票市場運作一竅不通。部分人眼見賺錢容易，便不斷投入資金買股票，結果股價只升不跌。除非內地股市急挫，否則這些容易受騙的新手，仍願意繼續把鈔票放進金魚缸內；而我相信，股市早晚也會出現大調整。
憂通脹加劇
然而，香港人飽經風浪，歷盡了十年前的紅籌股災、○一年的科網股爆破，以及○三年的沙士疫症，危機感較強。經過最近一輪瘋狂升市後，令不少投資者發了一筆橫財，他們已逐步減持股票。故此，本地有很多投資者，正坐擁一大筆現金，伺機再入市。
即使資深的分析員與新聞評論員，對屢創新高的大市也感到慨嘆，甚至被震呆了，惟股市依然長升長有。無人知曉這次升浪何時完結，而早前沽貨後，我們持有八十萬元現金，佔組合資產約一成。上週，我們買入了十萬股陽光房託基金，買入價為二元二角。此基金息率優厚，現價較資產淨值有三成折讓。即使購入陽光，我們仍有近六十萬元現金，對我來說依然偏多。
目前，香港的通脹約百分之三，我擔心未來會加劇。內地進口的食品愈來愈貴，但港元對人民幣卻不斷貶值。油價與租金也不甘後人，不斷攀升；即使地鐵承諾減價，我相信巴士票價也不會下調。此外，減稅能否令消費者直接受惠，亦是一大疑問。所以我寧願買股票，也不欲持有現金，以免現金的購買力被蠶食，況且優質股賺錢只會愈來愈多。
買細價股時機未到
日又多收了一些求救電郵及傳真，又是問細價股。這個大升浪中，除個別細價炒注資概念有相應的升幅外，絕大部份都是原地踏步，有些股價更比8月初小股災時更低。
傳統上，大價股升完，資金會轉攻細價股，因此，不少此類股份捧場客一廂情願的相信下一浪就是細價股潮，但明顯所見，大市升時此類股份不升，大市反覆卻有跌的份兒，所以有不少人在大牛市損手。
其實求救也幫不上甚麼忙，因為自己真的不懂。
第一、它們沒有基本因素分析可言，甚麼技術位也是人為的；
第二、現在炒大價股已有足夠波幅，相關窩輪表現更驚人，根本不用買細價股也有不錯回報，只要錢繼續留在大價股板塊，細價股仍難有起色。
自問不是炒此類股份的專家，也不敢在一些勁人面前班門弄斧。事實上，貨源不歸邊，股價炒不起，但歸邊的過程及時間表不是你同我可知，所以要賺此類股份的錢，只有等大圍開車，人炒我炒才可以跟進。
買細價股時機未到
其中有一封電郵，表示聽人說某某股票等大價股升浪完即會開車，所以一直累積，但至今賬面已輸近3成。我現在最怕是市況逆轉時它們跟隨下跌，我的建議仍是沽出此類股份，寧願保留實力買中價及大價股。大市極之反覆，15分鐘時間已足以變天，但正如昨日所言，前日的調整是正常，只要控制注碼入市，風險仍可控制，但你一定要有好的EQ，否則隨時被震走。
傳統上，大價股升完，資金會轉攻細價股，因此，不少此類股份捧場客一廂情願的相信下一浪就是細價股潮，但明顯所見，大市升時此類股份不升，大市反覆卻有跌的份兒，所以有不少人在大牛市損手。
其實求救也幫不上甚麼忙，因為自己真的不懂。
第一、它們沒有基本因素分析可言，甚麼技術位也是人為的；
第二、現在炒大價股已有足夠波幅，相關窩輪表現更驚人，根本不用買細價股也有不錯回報，只要錢繼續留在大價股板塊，細價股仍難有起色。
自問不是炒此類股份的專家，也不敢在一些勁人面前班門弄斧。事實上，貨源不歸邊，股價炒不起，但歸邊的過程及時間表不是你同我可知，所以要賺此類股份的錢，只有等大圍開車，人炒我炒才可以跟進。
買細價股時機未到
其中有一封電郵，表示聽人說某某股票等大價股升浪完即會開車，所以一直累積，但至今賬面已輸近3成。我現在最怕是市況逆轉時它們跟隨下跌，我的建議仍是沽出此類股份，寧願保留實力買中價及大價股。大市極之反覆，15分鐘時間已足以變天，但正如昨日所言，前日的調整是正常，只要控制注碼入市，風險仍可控制，但你一定要有好的EQ，否則隨時被震走。
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Nash equilibrium :A Beautiful Mind - blonde girl example
(These comments apply to the film - I haven't read the book.) You'd think they'd have covered the concept of Nash Equilibriuma a little more accurately, since it's the concept that bears his name. In the film, the 'inspiration' for his discovering it occurs when Nash and three pals are drinking in a bar. Four women enter, led by a blonde who is clearly the pick of the bunch. Nash reasons that if they all go for the blonde, at most one of them will end up with her, and they won't then stand a chance with the other three. But if they divide the women amongst themselves first, they all have a chance of ending up with one.
There are two problems with this example; one technical, one presentational. The technical one is that (assuming the 'rules' are as described) there are of course multiple Nash equilbria here (even disregarding mixed strategies) where each is assigned a different girl. Each of them has a slightly different payoff for each player, depending on who is assigned the blonde. The problem is that the concept doesn't tell you WHICH Equilibrium will end up being played - so the whole blonde problem hasn't actually been solved. They could agree among themselves to co-ordinate in a certain way, but this isn't shown in the film, and is in fact a further game theory problem of its own, since they would each like to be the one with the blonde. It's disappointing a better example wasn't used.
The presentational problem is that film implies Nash Equilibrium is just a way of co-operating in a socially useful manner, when in fact it's almost the opposite (a set of individual best responses). There's no necessary reason why co-operation is the outcome in this situation. The blonde could have been so attractive it would have been worth a 25% shot at her rather than a certain go at one of the plainer girls, which would lead to a competitive outcome.
A much better example would be one where there was a DIFFERENCE between the individual and the social optimums. Let's say there was one girl being hit on by two men. Neither wants to be the one to leave the group and buy the drinks, because he'd lose his (50%) chance with her. It's individually best for them both to keep talking to her. But because neither has bought her a drink, she gets fed up and goes home. So what was the best decision for the individual was worse for the group. I'm sure there's any number of better examples which would have explained N.E. more effectively than the misleading one they use in the film.
There are two problems with this example; one technical, one presentational. The technical one is that (assuming the 'rules' are as described) there are of course multiple Nash equilbria here (even disregarding mixed strategies) where each is assigned a different girl. Each of them has a slightly different payoff for each player, depending on who is assigned the blonde. The problem is that the concept doesn't tell you WHICH Equilibrium will end up being played - so the whole blonde problem hasn't actually been solved. They could agree among themselves to co-ordinate in a certain way, but this isn't shown in the film, and is in fact a further game theory problem of its own, since they would each like to be the one with the blonde. It's disappointing a better example wasn't used.
The presentational problem is that film implies Nash Equilibrium is just a way of co-operating in a socially useful manner, when in fact it's almost the opposite (a set of individual best responses). There's no necessary reason why co-operation is the outcome in this situation. The blonde could have been so attractive it would have been worth a 25% shot at her rather than a certain go at one of the plainer girls, which would lead to a competitive outcome.
A much better example would be one where there was a DIFFERENCE between the individual and the social optimums. Let's say there was one girl being hit on by two men. Neither wants to be the one to leave the group and buy the drinks, because he'd lose his (50%) chance with her. It's individually best for them both to keep talking to her. But because neither has bought her a drink, she gets fed up and goes home. So what was the best decision for the individual was worse for the group. I'm sure there's any number of better examples which would have explained N.E. more effectively than the misleading one they use in the film.
Too mild
I am too kind and too mild.
I am too naive, think of using other people, actually had been used by people like Sang, Ho Chee Kong and Ken.
Too soft, let people take advantage.
I don't understand how this world works.
This is a unforgiving world, where strong and bad people win.
let people know you are a bastard and you are tough.
Be a tough and bad man.
I am too naive, think of using other people, actually had been used by people like Sang, Ho Chee Kong and Ken.
Too soft, let people take advantage.
I don't understand how this world works.
This is a unforgiving world, where strong and bad people win.
let people know you are a bastard and you are tough.
Be a tough and bad man.
14 Oct 07 - Uncle Lim seminar
recommendation:
1.Freight Link - MA 2 cross MA 8
2.Nera
3.YJZ - explode in Jan 2006
4.CAO
5.Celestial
6.Baker Tech
Hot money flows into Asia
Hot money will flows around
now looks like 1987 sideways for awhile and then gap up again
close relationship between Hot money and exchange rate
hot money will flows back to US next year
1.Freight Link - MA 2 cross MA 8
2.Nera
3.YJZ - explode in Jan 2006
4.CAO
5.Celestial
6.Baker Tech
Hot money flows into Asia
Hot money will flows around
now looks like 1987 sideways for awhile and then gap up again
close relationship between Hot money and exchange rate
hot money will flows back to US next year
如何理解巴菲特的理念？
人类学家告诉我们：人类最强的三个欲望分别是财富、地位和权力，而财富则排在三个欲望之首。
正在或者准备走价值投资之路的朋友或许都在思考这样一个问题：价值投资一定能让我们实现自己的财富梦想吗？
对于这样一个问题，价值投资实践的集大成者巴菲特是这样说的：“价值投资并不能充分保证我们投资盈利，因为我们不仅要在合理的价格上买入，而且我们买入的公司的未来业绩还要与我们的估计相符。”换句话说，价值投资之路并非坦途，其未来其实是充满了诸多变数和不确定性，从这一点说，价值投资与其他的投资（投机）路径没有太多的分别。然而，老巴最后话锋一转：“但是价值投资给我们提供了走向真正成功的唯一机会。”大师毕竟是大师，话语简洁，掷地有声。
这是一个成功者所下的断语，价值投资者在细节上的一切探讨都是以信仰这句话为前提的。
一、 关于价值人类财富史上有文字记载的最早的财富交换发生在古巴比伦和古埃及国王之间。交换的财富包括布匹、香料、家具、青铜器、珠宝和黄金。这样大规模的财富交换无疑蕴含着价值判断的逻辑在内。而对价值的判断恰恰是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。价值投资，简而言之，就是在一家公司的市场价格相对于它的内在价值大打折扣时买入其股份。内在价值在理论上的定义就是一家企业在其余下的寿命史中可以产生的现金的折现值。但是问题来了，一家企业余下的寿命史到底有多长？能产生多少现金？这本身就充满了玄念，以这个充满了玄念的现金流为基础而形成的判断有多大的可信度呢? 再有，折现率该如何确定？在不同的时点、不同的投资人会有不同选择，据以计算的价值必然是失之毫厘、差之千里。如果不能做到精确的价值评估，又怎能知道应该在什么价位购买股票呢？如果说这是价值投资人最大的困惑所在，当不为过。
关于内存价值的计算，巴菲特最主要的合伙人查理"芒格曾说过一句耐人寻味的话：巴菲特常常提到现金流量，但我却从未看到他做过什么计算。老巴本人对于内在价值的计算最为详细的叙述出现在96年致伯克希尔股东的信中：“内在价值是估计值，而不是精确值，而且它还是在利率变化或者对未来现金流的预测修正时必须相应改变的估计值。此外，两个人根据完全相同的互助组事实进行估值，几乎总是不可避免地得出至少是略有不同的内在价值的估计值，即使对于我和查理来说也是如此，这正是我们从不对外公布我们对内在价值估计值的一个原因。”此外，老巴还坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分股票的内在价值还有点自信，但也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。价值评估既是艺术，又是科学。”与一些市场人士的想法不同，笔者更倾向于认为老巴这番话是真的坦诚而非卖关子。因为我们常常看到，在市场上，过度追求精确量化往往不会带来好的后果。最典型的例子莫过于大名鼎鼎的美国LTCM（长期资本管理公司）。从运作方式上看，LTCM是通过运用电脑建立数量模型分析金融工具价格，再利用不同证券的市场价格差异进行操作，是投资界精确量化的祖师，却也难逃最终失败命运。金融投资，须观其形、辨其意、审其时、度其势；深得阴阳互化之妙，常怀敬畏自然之心。法法相济，法无定法，远非单纯的模型和程式化操作所能涵盖。在内在价值评估方面，大抵也是如此吧。或许，但凡介于科学和艺术层面之间的东西，都要用到中国古人说的一句话：运用之妙，存乎一心。老巴爱引用凯恩斯的一句话“宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误”，也是异曲同工。尽管我们相信在某一个特定的时空，某一公司的价值只有一个，我们也只能力求最大限度地逼进它。而赢家却总是相对的。
二、 关于安全边际老巴曾在他的老师、现代证券分析创始人、人称华尔街教父的格雷厄姆那里学到两条投资规则：第一条：永远不要亏损；第二条：永远不要忘记第一条。那么，如何才能做到不亏损呢？格雷厄姆自己给出的答案是：“我大胆地将成功投资的秘诀精炼成四个字的座右铭：安全边际。”作为为价值投资的核心概念，如果说安全边际在整个价值投资领域中处于至高无上的地位，并不为过。它的定义非常简单而朴素：实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差，换一种更通俗的说法，安全边际就是价值与价格相比被低估的程度或幅度。根据定义，只有当价值被低估的时候才存在安全边际或安全边际为正，当价值与价格相当的时候安全边际为零，而当价值被高估的时候不存在安全边际或安全边际为负。价值投资者只对价值被低估特别是被严重低估的对象感兴趣。安全边际不保证能避免损失，但能保证获利的机会比损失的机会更多。凡事喜欢精确的同志可能要再次失望了：原来与内在价值一样，所谓的安全边际也是一个模糊的概念，比如仅从定义我们不能确定实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差达到什么程度才能说安全边际就是足够，就可以买入股票。与内在价值一样，对安全边际的理解与应用也仍然是一个需要艺术掌握的东西。巴非特指出：“我们的股票投资策略持续有效的前提是，我们可以以具有吸引力的价格买到有吸引力的股票。对投资人来说，买入一家优秀公司的股票时支付过高的价格，将抵消这家绩优企业未来十年所创造的价值。”这就是说，忽视安全边际，即使买入优秀企业的股票，也会因买价过高而难以盈利。这一点，对于当今的中国股市，尤具警醒作用。可以说，安全边际在理念上与传统的“富贵险中求”投资观念是截然相反的。它告诉你：如果你想要谋发达你一定不要冒风险。在每次做投资决策或投资活动中，我们一定是希望我们的风险降到最小，同时希望每次投资活动中都能取得收益的最大化。如果想要的安全边际迟迟不来怎么办呢？那么只有两个字：等待。在我们一生的投资过程中，我们不希望也不需要每天都去做交易，很多时候我们会手持现金，耐心等待，由于市场交易群体的无理性，在不确定的时间段内，比如三至五年的周期里，总会等到一个完美的高安全边际的时刻，换句话说，市场的无效性总会带来价值低估的机会，那么这个时候就是你出手的时候。就如非洲草原的狮子，它在没有猎物的时候更多的是在草丛中慢慢的等，很有耐心的观察周围情况，直到猎物进入伏击范围才迅疾出手。如果你的投资组合里累计了很多次这样的投资后，从长期看，你一定会取得远远超出市场回报的机会。所以安全边际的核心就在把握风险和收益的关系。从防御角度说，对安全边际的掌握更多是一种生存的艺术。投资如行军打仗，首先确保不被敌人消灭掉是作战的第一要素，否则一切都将无从谈起。这一点在牛市氛围中，在泡沫化严重的市场里，显得尤为重要。安全边际并不是孤立的，它是以“内在价值”为基础的，在“内在价值”的计算中，预期收益率是最有弹性的参数，预期收益率的上升和安全边际的扩大都趋向了一个结果，那就是相对低的买入价格。而就操作的层面而言，阶段性的仓位比例控制也可以视为运用安全边际的辅佐手段。格雷厄姆和巴菲特这两个大师级的人物之所以都非常强调安全边际原则，之所以都要求一定的安全边际，其根本原因就在于，影响股票市场价格和公司经营的因素非常庞杂，而相对来说，人的预测能力是非常有限的，很容易出现预测失误。而安全边际则是对投资者自身能力的有限性、股票市场波动巨大的不确定性的一种预防和保险。有了较大的安全边际，即使我们对公司价值的评估有一定误差、市场价格在较长时间内仍低于价值、公司发展受到暂时的挫折，都不会妨碍我们投资资本的安全性以及保证我们取得最低程度的满意报酬率。这就是安全边际原则的精髓所在。
三、 价值投资和市场波动早知道波动总是难免的，又何必劳心伤神。“市场从来不是一台根据证券的内在品质而精确地客观地记录其价值的计量器，而是汇集了无数人部分出于理性（事实）部分出于感性（理念和观点）的选择的投票器。”这就是市场波动的由来。格雷厄姆在去世前几个月的时候指出：“如果说我在华尔街60多年的经验中发现过什么的话，那就是从来没有人能够成功地预测股市波动。”市场的状态是事实和想象的统一体。股价也是这样。资金量的大小是决定股价的重要因素。巨量资金流动的背后是理念和观点在刺激人们的想象，而且会达到疯狂，而过分脱离事实的想象和疯狂会造就悲剧。
格雷厄姆有一个“旅鼠故事”的著名寓言讲的就是这种悲剧：一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对于市场的价格波动，格雷厄姆还有一个著名的“市场先生”的寓言：就是设想自己在与一个叫市场先生的人进行股票交易，市场先生的特点是情绪很不稳定。因此，在他高兴的日子里，他会报出较高的价格，相反懊恼时，就会报出很低的价格。按现在通行的话说，市场常常会犯错。而一个出色的价值投资者会充分利用这种错误。设想有一天交易的时候，“市场先生”突然情绪沮丧，报出了一个低得离谱的价格，那么在这种情况下，投机客常常会按照“鳄鱼原则”的要求止损离场，而价值投资者呢？恰恰相反，会继续加码买入！这就是两种不同的价值观主导下的两种截然相反的交易策略。这就是巴菲特告诫我们的：要把市场波动看作你的朋友而不是敌人。
事实上，仅以老巴旗下的伯克希尔公司来说，在1973年－1974年的经济衰退期间，它的股票价格从每股90美元跌至每股40美元。在1987年的股灾中，股票价格从每股大约4000美元跌至3000美元。在1990年－1991年的海湾战争期间，它再次遭到重创，股票价格从每股8900美元急剧跌至5500美元。在1998年－2000年期间，伯克希尔公司宣布收购通用再保险公司（GeneralRe）之后，它的股价也从1998年中期的每股大约80000美元跌至2000年初的40800美元。可以想见，在这些时候，巴菲特在股票投资方面所受的沉重打击和巨大精神压力，按照“鳄鱼原则”，巴菲特应该不知道止损离场多少次了，但那样的话，我们也不会看到今天的股神。
正在或者准备走价值投资之路的朋友或许都在思考这样一个问题：价值投资一定能让我们实现自己的财富梦想吗？
对于这样一个问题，价值投资实践的集大成者巴菲特是这样说的：“价值投资并不能充分保证我们投资盈利，因为我们不仅要在合理的价格上买入，而且我们买入的公司的未来业绩还要与我们的估计相符。”换句话说，价值投资之路并非坦途，其未来其实是充满了诸多变数和不确定性，从这一点说，价值投资与其他的投资（投机）路径没有太多的分别。然而，老巴最后话锋一转：“但是价值投资给我们提供了走向真正成功的唯一机会。”大师毕竟是大师，话语简洁，掷地有声。
这是一个成功者所下的断语，价值投资者在细节上的一切探讨都是以信仰这句话为前提的。
一、 关于价值人类财富史上有文字记载的最早的财富交换发生在古巴比伦和古埃及国王之间。交换的财富包括布匹、香料、家具、青铜器、珠宝和黄金。这样大规模的财富交换无疑蕴含着价值判断的逻辑在内。而对价值的判断恰恰是价值投资的前提、基础和核心。价值投资，简而言之，就是在一家公司的市场价格相对于它的内在价值大打折扣时买入其股份。内在价值在理论上的定义就是一家企业在其余下的寿命史中可以产生的现金的折现值。但是问题来了，一家企业余下的寿命史到底有多长？能产生多少现金？这本身就充满了玄念，以这个充满了玄念的现金流为基础而形成的判断有多大的可信度呢? 再有，折现率该如何确定？在不同的时点、不同的投资人会有不同选择，据以计算的价值必然是失之毫厘、差之千里。如果不能做到精确的价值评估，又怎能知道应该在什么价位购买股票呢？如果说这是价值投资人最大的困惑所在，当不为过。
关于内存价值的计算，巴菲特最主要的合伙人查理"芒格曾说过一句耐人寻味的话：巴菲特常常提到现金流量，但我却从未看到他做过什么计算。老巴本人对于内在价值的计算最为详细的叙述出现在96年致伯克希尔股东的信中：“内在价值是估计值，而不是精确值，而且它还是在利率变化或者对未来现金流的预测修正时必须相应改变的估计值。此外，两个人根据完全相同的互助组事实进行估值，几乎总是不可避免地得出至少是略有不同的内在价值的估计值，即使对于我和查理来说也是如此，这正是我们从不对外公布我们对内在价值估计值的一个原因。”此外，老巴还坦承：“我们只是对于估计一小部分股票的内在价值还有点自信，但也只限于一个价值区间，而绝非那些貌似精确实为谬误的数字。价值评估既是艺术，又是科学。”与一些市场人士的想法不同，笔者更倾向于认为老巴这番话是真的坦诚而非卖关子。因为我们常常看到，在市场上，过度追求精确量化往往不会带来好的后果。最典型的例子莫过于大名鼎鼎的美国LTCM（长期资本管理公司）。从运作方式上看，LTCM是通过运用电脑建立数量模型分析金融工具价格，再利用不同证券的市场价格差异进行操作，是投资界精确量化的祖师，却也难逃最终失败命运。金融投资，须观其形、辨其意、审其时、度其势；深得阴阳互化之妙，常怀敬畏自然之心。法法相济，法无定法，远非单纯的模型和程式化操作所能涵盖。在内在价值评估方面，大抵也是如此吧。或许，但凡介于科学和艺术层面之间的东西，都要用到中国古人说的一句话：运用之妙，存乎一心。老巴爱引用凯恩斯的一句话“宁要模糊的正确，不要精确的错误”，也是异曲同工。尽管我们相信在某一个特定的时空，某一公司的价值只有一个，我们也只能力求最大限度地逼进它。而赢家却总是相对的。
二、 关于安全边际老巴曾在他的老师、现代证券分析创始人、人称华尔街教父的格雷厄姆那里学到两条投资规则：第一条：永远不要亏损；第二条：永远不要忘记第一条。那么，如何才能做到不亏损呢？格雷厄姆自己给出的答案是：“我大胆地将成功投资的秘诀精炼成四个字的座右铭：安全边际。”作为为价值投资的核心概念，如果说安全边际在整个价值投资领域中处于至高无上的地位，并不为过。它的定义非常简单而朴素：实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差，换一种更通俗的说法，安全边际就是价值与价格相比被低估的程度或幅度。根据定义，只有当价值被低估的时候才存在安全边际或安全边际为正，当价值与价格相当的时候安全边际为零，而当价值被高估的时候不存在安全边际或安全边际为负。价值投资者只对价值被低估特别是被严重低估的对象感兴趣。安全边际不保证能避免损失，但能保证获利的机会比损失的机会更多。凡事喜欢精确的同志可能要再次失望了：原来与内在价值一样，所谓的安全边际也是一个模糊的概念，比如仅从定义我们不能确定实质价值或内在价值与价格的顺差达到什么程度才能说安全边际就是足够，就可以买入股票。与内在价值一样，对安全边际的理解与应用也仍然是一个需要艺术掌握的东西。巴非特指出：“我们的股票投资策略持续有效的前提是，我们可以以具有吸引力的价格买到有吸引力的股票。对投资人来说，买入一家优秀公司的股票时支付过高的价格，将抵消这家绩优企业未来十年所创造的价值。”这就是说，忽视安全边际，即使买入优秀企业的股票，也会因买价过高而难以盈利。这一点，对于当今的中国股市，尤具警醒作用。可以说，安全边际在理念上与传统的“富贵险中求”投资观念是截然相反的。它告诉你：如果你想要谋发达你一定不要冒风险。在每次做投资决策或投资活动中，我们一定是希望我们的风险降到最小，同时希望每次投资活动中都能取得收益的最大化。如果想要的安全边际迟迟不来怎么办呢？那么只有两个字：等待。在我们一生的投资过程中，我们不希望也不需要每天都去做交易，很多时候我们会手持现金，耐心等待，由于市场交易群体的无理性，在不确定的时间段内，比如三至五年的周期里，总会等到一个完美的高安全边际的时刻，换句话说，市场的无效性总会带来价值低估的机会，那么这个时候就是你出手的时候。就如非洲草原的狮子，它在没有猎物的时候更多的是在草丛中慢慢的等，很有耐心的观察周围情况，直到猎物进入伏击范围才迅疾出手。如果你的投资组合里累计了很多次这样的投资后，从长期看，你一定会取得远远超出市场回报的机会。所以安全边际的核心就在把握风险和收益的关系。从防御角度说，对安全边际的掌握更多是一种生存的艺术。投资如行军打仗，首先确保不被敌人消灭掉是作战的第一要素，否则一切都将无从谈起。这一点在牛市氛围中，在泡沫化严重的市场里，显得尤为重要。安全边际并不是孤立的，它是以“内在价值”为基础的，在“内在价值”的计算中，预期收益率是最有弹性的参数，预期收益率的上升和安全边际的扩大都趋向了一个结果，那就是相对低的买入价格。而就操作的层面而言，阶段性的仓位比例控制也可以视为运用安全边际的辅佐手段。格雷厄姆和巴菲特这两个大师级的人物之所以都非常强调安全边际原则，之所以都要求一定的安全边际，其根本原因就在于，影响股票市场价格和公司经营的因素非常庞杂，而相对来说，人的预测能力是非常有限的，很容易出现预测失误。而安全边际则是对投资者自身能力的有限性、股票市场波动巨大的不确定性的一种预防和保险。有了较大的安全边际，即使我们对公司价值的评估有一定误差、市场价格在较长时间内仍低于价值、公司发展受到暂时的挫折，都不会妨碍我们投资资本的安全性以及保证我们取得最低程度的满意报酬率。这就是安全边际原则的精髓所在。
三、 价值投资和市场波动早知道波动总是难免的，又何必劳心伤神。“市场从来不是一台根据证券的内在品质而精确地客观地记录其价值的计量器，而是汇集了无数人部分出于理性（事实）部分出于感性（理念和观点）的选择的投票器。”这就是市场波动的由来。格雷厄姆在去世前几个月的时候指出：“如果说我在华尔街60多年的经验中发现过什么的话，那就是从来没有人能够成功地预测股市波动。”市场的状态是事实和想象的统一体。股价也是这样。资金量的大小是决定股价的重要因素。巨量资金流动的背后是理念和观点在刺激人们的想象，而且会达到疯狂，而过分脱离事实的想象和疯狂会造就悲剧。
格雷厄姆有一个“旅鼠故事”的著名寓言讲的就是这种悲剧：一个庞大的群体一哄而上地、盲从地向海边走去而淹没在海中，被人们称为集体自杀的行为。对于市场的价格波动，格雷厄姆还有一个著名的“市场先生”的寓言：就是设想自己在与一个叫市场先生的人进行股票交易，市场先生的特点是情绪很不稳定。因此，在他高兴的日子里，他会报出较高的价格，相反懊恼时，就会报出很低的价格。按现在通行的话说，市场常常会犯错。而一个出色的价值投资者会充分利用这种错误。设想有一天交易的时候，“市场先生”突然情绪沮丧，报出了一个低得离谱的价格，那么在这种情况下，投机客常常会按照“鳄鱼原则”的要求止损离场，而价值投资者呢？恰恰相反，会继续加码买入！这就是两种不同的价值观主导下的两种截然相反的交易策略。这就是巴菲特告诫我们的：要把市场波动看作你的朋友而不是敌人。
事实上，仅以老巴旗下的伯克希尔公司来说，在1973年－1974年的经济衰退期间，它的股票价格从每股90美元跌至每股40美元。在1987年的股灾中，股票价格从每股大约4000美元跌至3000美元。在1990年－1991年的海湾战争期间，它再次遭到重创，股票价格从每股8900美元急剧跌至5500美元。在1998年－2000年期间，伯克希尔公司宣布收购通用再保险公司（GeneralRe）之后，它的股价也从1998年中期的每股大约80000美元跌至2000年初的40800美元。可以想见，在这些时候，巴菲特在股票投资方面所受的沉重打击和巨大精神压力，按照“鳄鱼原则”，巴菲特应该不知道止损离场多少次了，但那样的话，我们也不会看到今天的股神。
中国股神林园炒股秘籍
任凭多丰富的想象力，你也无法想到一个学医出身的小人物，从1989年全家拼凑的8000元人民币起步，投身中国股市，18年来，他的财富呈“核子裂变”般快速增长，至2007年其身价已达20多个亿。在多少人葬身充满暗礁和险滩的中国股海时，他却从没有亏损过一分钱；当很多人靠赌博和投机妄想一夜暴富时，他却仅靠两条腿和一个会算账的脑子稳稳地、大把大把地赚钱。
——他，就是股神林园。法国路透社、英国金融时报、美国CNN、中国中央电视台……数不清的媒体都对他进行了大篇幅报道。在许多人看来，林园的投资哲学与美国“股神”沃伦•巴菲特有很多相似之处，中央电视台称之为“中国股神”。2006年6月《北京青年报》还颁发给林园“中国巴菲特”的美誉，但林园不服气。“我没有效仿任何人的策略，反而是人们在模仿我，”林园在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，“我为什么要关注巴菲特？他是个外国人。
”巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师孟原(Isaac Meng)证实，从8000元到超过20个亿，林园的年均复合回报率在98%以上，远远超过了沃伦•巴菲特的22.1%。我们有理由相信，林园是有史以来最成功的股票投资者。
在《中国股神林园炒股秘籍》一书中，完整而生动地再现了这个财富增长的神话。让我们走近股神林园，一起来了解他的传奇经历，分享他的财富故事。
1989年，本应该当医生的林园怀揣着一家人凑够的8000元钱，来到了深圳。第一次出手就相中了深发展，经过反复炒作，在股市中掘到了他的第一桶金——12万。并在之后短短的3年时间里，资产累积超过1000万，迅速完成了资本的原始积累。1993年2月之后，中国股市进入熊市，当时股市流传着一句顺口溜：1993年消灭大户，1994年消灭机构。能在这个时候及时而果断地抽身，需要勇气和敏锐的判断力。林园这时嗅到了危险的气息，果断卖掉股票，套现，转身进入了房地产，一走就是两年，逃脱了中国股市第一波大熊市。
1994年，林园敏感到资本市场的变化，卖掉房地产，变现1000万元又卷土重来杀回股市，重仓深发展和四川长虹。林园说，赚的最多的一天，能给他赚出一个奔驰车队来。几年下来，他获得了9倍的盈利。2001年上证指数突破2245点时，林园悄无声息地全面撤离A股市场，将资金投向周边国家的资本市场，但他从没有一天是空仓的。2000年到2003年，林园的平均投资回报达到了3倍左右，其中单只股票翻番了32倍。2003年，中国股市仍然在熊市的怀抱中挣扎，而林园又杀了回来，倡导价值投资，重仓绩优股，对5个优良企业进行投资，赚进了1.7亿元人民币。在2004~2005年对价值被严重低估的股票进行集中投资，赚进了2亿元人民币。目前，他拥有茅台、五粮液、黄山旅游、中国招商银行、上海机场等20多家优良企业的股票。2005年底，林园资产已达4亿。在2006年的大牛市中，林园资产一年翻了5倍。到2007年，林园总资产已经达到20多个亿。他坚信2007年将是中国A股市场最好的时期，他会创造出更大的奇迹。林园是怎样创造了中国股市这不是神话的神话？他有什么绝招和技巧，我们能从中学到一招半式吗？
《中国股神林园炒股秘籍》为你全面揭开“中国股神”的神秘面纱，揭秘林园选股绝技、在牛市和熊市中都赚钱的操作策略、判断企业好坏的六大财务方法、追踪企业经营业绩变化的杀手锏等，尤其难得的是，本书给出了林园先生经过多年追踪调查选出的他个人最看好的20只股票。
林园现在正准备做一个计划，随机在全国找100人，和学历、知识程度都没有关系，只需要投资8千元。他提出的口号是：10年掌握自己的命运，20年变成有钱人，30年变成富翁。也许我们没那么幸运，能够跻身这100个人中，但所有想通过投资股市获得财富、改变命运的人，最想从股神林园身上学到的东西，都尽在这本书里。耐心地读他吧，你虽然不可能模仿他，也不可能成为他，但是，你可以学习他的方法、他的理念，创造属于你自己的财富故事。
林园的投资理念，改变你的命运。
林园简介：
1989年，本应该当医生的林园揣着全家拼凑来的全部家当——8000元投身股市，开启了一段财富传奇。1990年，反复炒深发展，在股市中掘到第一桶金——12万。1992年，资产超过1000万。1993年，卖掉股票，投资房地产，逃脱了中国股市第一波大熊市。1994年，卷土重来，重仓深发展和四川长虹，一天能赚出一个奔驰车队。2000年，撤离A股市场，将资金投向周边国家的资本市场，单只股票翻番32倍。2003年，在熊市中杀回来，倡导价值投资，重仓绩优股，获得倍增。2005年底，林园资产已达4亿。2006年，在大牛市中，资产一年翻5倍。2007年，林园总资产达到20多个亿。他坚信2007年将是中国A股市场最好的时期，他会创造出更大的奇迹。我投资的第一重要性就是投资确定性，赚钱的确定性。我觉得股市是不能总结经验教训的。我要求我自己是百分之百的正确，没准你错一次就是毁灭性的，赔钱就让你毁灭。
我认为A股上市的一千多家公司，95%的公司，我都搞不清楚。搞不清楚就是风险。我研究的公司，到目前为止也不超过25家。
选股的技巧，就是它的产品最好有几千年文化，或是在目前激烈市场竞争中出来的优胜企业。还有就是选择一些没有竞争对手的垄断企业。
卖出股票的三个条件:
发现性坐比更好的公司；公司经营情况发生变化；公司确实被高估了。
林园北大演讲实录：股市大牛，我们要勇往直前
——他，就是股神林园。法国路透社、英国金融时报、美国CNN、中国中央电视台……数不清的媒体都对他进行了大篇幅报道。在许多人看来，林园的投资哲学与美国“股神”沃伦•巴菲特有很多相似之处，中央电视台称之为“中国股神”。2006年6月《北京青年报》还颁发给林园“中国巴菲特”的美誉，但林园不服气。“我没有效仿任何人的策略，反而是人们在模仿我，”林园在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，“我为什么要关注巴菲特？他是个外国人。
”巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师孟原(Isaac Meng)证实，从8000元到超过20个亿，林园的年均复合回报率在98%以上，远远超过了沃伦•巴菲特的22.1%。我们有理由相信，林园是有史以来最成功的股票投资者。
在《中国股神林园炒股秘籍》一书中，完整而生动地再现了这个财富增长的神话。让我们走近股神林园，一起来了解他的传奇经历，分享他的财富故事。
1989年，本应该当医生的林园怀揣着一家人凑够的8000元钱，来到了深圳。第一次出手就相中了深发展，经过反复炒作，在股市中掘到了他的第一桶金——12万。并在之后短短的3年时间里，资产累积超过1000万，迅速完成了资本的原始积累。1993年2月之后，中国股市进入熊市，当时股市流传着一句顺口溜：1993年消灭大户，1994年消灭机构。能在这个时候及时而果断地抽身，需要勇气和敏锐的判断力。林园这时嗅到了危险的气息，果断卖掉股票，套现，转身进入了房地产，一走就是两年，逃脱了中国股市第一波大熊市。
1994年，林园敏感到资本市场的变化，卖掉房地产，变现1000万元又卷土重来杀回股市，重仓深发展和四川长虹。林园说，赚的最多的一天，能给他赚出一个奔驰车队来。几年下来，他获得了9倍的盈利。2001年上证指数突破2245点时，林园悄无声息地全面撤离A股市场，将资金投向周边国家的资本市场，但他从没有一天是空仓的。2000年到2003年，林园的平均投资回报达到了3倍左右，其中单只股票翻番了32倍。2003年，中国股市仍然在熊市的怀抱中挣扎，而林园又杀了回来，倡导价值投资，重仓绩优股，对5个优良企业进行投资，赚进了1.7亿元人民币。在2004~2005年对价值被严重低估的股票进行集中投资，赚进了2亿元人民币。目前，他拥有茅台、五粮液、黄山旅游、中国招商银行、上海机场等20多家优良企业的股票。2005年底，林园资产已达4亿。在2006年的大牛市中，林园资产一年翻了5倍。到2007年，林园总资产已经达到20多个亿。他坚信2007年将是中国A股市场最好的时期，他会创造出更大的奇迹。林园是怎样创造了中国股市这不是神话的神话？他有什么绝招和技巧，我们能从中学到一招半式吗？
《中国股神林园炒股秘籍》为你全面揭开“中国股神”的神秘面纱，揭秘林园选股绝技、在牛市和熊市中都赚钱的操作策略、判断企业好坏的六大财务方法、追踪企业经营业绩变化的杀手锏等，尤其难得的是，本书给出了林园先生经过多年追踪调查选出的他个人最看好的20只股票。
林园现在正准备做一个计划，随机在全国找100人，和学历、知识程度都没有关系，只需要投资8千元。他提出的口号是：10年掌握自己的命运，20年变成有钱人，30年变成富翁。也许我们没那么幸运，能够跻身这100个人中，但所有想通过投资股市获得财富、改变命运的人，最想从股神林园身上学到的东西，都尽在这本书里。耐心地读他吧，你虽然不可能模仿他，也不可能成为他，但是，你可以学习他的方法、他的理念，创造属于你自己的财富故事。
林园的投资理念，改变你的命运。
林园简介：
1989年，本应该当医生的林园揣着全家拼凑来的全部家当——8000元投身股市，开启了一段财富传奇。1990年，反复炒深发展，在股市中掘到第一桶金——12万。1992年，资产超过1000万。1993年，卖掉股票，投资房地产，逃脱了中国股市第一波大熊市。1994年，卷土重来，重仓深发展和四川长虹，一天能赚出一个奔驰车队。2000年，撤离A股市场，将资金投向周边国家的资本市场，单只股票翻番32倍。2003年，在熊市中杀回来，倡导价值投资，重仓绩优股，获得倍增。2005年底，林园资产已达4亿。2006年，在大牛市中，资产一年翻5倍。2007年，林园总资产达到20多个亿。他坚信2007年将是中国A股市场最好的时期，他会创造出更大的奇迹。我投资的第一重要性就是投资确定性，赚钱的确定性。我觉得股市是不能总结经验教训的。我要求我自己是百分之百的正确，没准你错一次就是毁灭性的，赔钱就让你毁灭。
我认为A股上市的一千多家公司，95%的公司，我都搞不清楚。搞不清楚就是风险。我研究的公司，到目前为止也不超过25家。
选股的技巧，就是它的产品最好有几千年文化，或是在目前激烈市场竞争中出来的优胜企业。还有就是选择一些没有竞争对手的垄断企业。
卖出股票的三个条件:
发现性坐比更好的公司；公司经营情况发生变化；公司确实被高估了。
林园北大演讲实录：股市大牛，我们要勇往直前
Saturday, October 13, 2007
炒股与《孙子兵法》
炒股就是你与庄家或机构之间的战争，而这场战争的代价付出的是金钱。股市中为什么大多数人不赚钱甚至赔钱呢？原因很简单，你没有灵活的策略。
在《孙子兵法》之始计篇中讲道：“道者，令民与上同意也，故可以与之死，可以与之生，而不畏危……知之者胜，不知者不胜……计利以听，乃为之势，以佐其处。势者，因利而制权也……”
原文这里就不一一阐释了，而转换到股市中要变通为：首先，股市的大势要弄清楚，现在的市场是“熊”还是“牛”，这是根本。
其次，我国强劲的经济发展势头是任何人都阻挡不了的，这是大势。转到个股上来说，大家要买的股票，大家对其业绩和发展的前景都早已了然在胸吧。做股票不管是短线还是中线一定要看其本身的趋势，只要趋势没有走坏，不用管它一两周的调整。
不少个股也是如此，个股的Ｋ线不要太相信，那是庄家可以画出来的。一定要看清大势，看清个股，加上自己的综合判定，相信自己的操作。
“计利以听，乃为之势，以佐其处，势者，因利而制权也。”庄家的计谋就是要“讲”出来让你去听信，你听进去了以后当然就会进去了，在无形中你就成为他们的势了。庄家即使在说谎，谎言重复一千次就成了“真理”。因此，关键在于你自身对于谎言的综合的判断，对一些消息和政策一定要作出相应的鉴别。
“兵者，诡道也．故能而示之不能，用而示之不用，近而示之远，远而示之近，利而诱之，乱而取之……攻其无备，出其不意。”炒股其实就是你想赚钱，他也想赚钱，大家都想赚钱，可是去赚谁的钱呢？当然是谁的计谋用得好，谁最狡猾，谁就会赚到钱。
在实际操作中，投资者看好了一只股票，Ｋ线好得没话说，各项指标都很好，且感觉马上就要大涨，但一但你买进后，不是被套，就是亏钱。弄得你卖也不是，买也不是，无所适从。而某些看似不好的股票，Ｋ线及各项指标都不好甚至很糟糕，但往往就是这种股票一涨就是几个涨停。有时，你买进第二天手中的股票就低开横盘，突然再猛地一跌，让你来不及多想，你刚刚卖出后，它就又神奇地涨了上去。又中计了……因此，我对股友们强调不要太过于注重看待Ｋ线，你一定要读懂它才行。Ｋ线有时是庄家画出来的，从某种角度说，庄家的脾气是不同的，画出来的东西也是不一样的，因此，才会让人迷惑不解，大上其当。但也有好多老股民赚了，不是他们能看清庄家的计谋，而是由于他们很多年摸爬滚打练出来的感觉，正是这种感觉导致他们赚到钱。不论你的知识、文化有多高多深．有时候还是要向一些老股民学习和讨教的。
如果对股票了解的多少以及你对庄家做出来的Ｋ线的含义，你比别人对你准备所买的股票有着更深的了解，那么，你赚钱的概率和出击取胜的可能性就要比其他人大得多。这就是“夫未战而庙算胜者，得算多也；未战而庙算不胜者，得算少也。多算胜，少算不胜，而况于无算乎？吾以此观之，胜负见也。”
在炒作一只股票前，庄家会对这家上市公司的发展前景作出评估，后市可能会出现的利好或消息，他们都已仔细研究过，然后再具体让操盘手列出计划和可行性报告，审议通过了才会实施。由此可以看出他们所下的功夫。而回过头来看一下散户，有几个人这么仔细地调研过上市公司？当然，大家也许会想庄家投入得多，当然更操心了呀！我们才多少钱，能和人家比吗？我不否认散户的资金肯定要比庄家少得多，但是庄家的船大不好掉头，而散户说走就走，要比庄家灵活得多。这点是散户所独有的优势。但散户往往不注意发挥自己的优势，很轻易地就转为被动，采取最容易出错的追涨杀跌。
在买股票时，应该先考虑自己所能承受的亏损是多少，盈利到多少就必须卖出。这样，即使套住了或是买得过早了，对自己来说可以得到一个教训，你的经验会越来越多，只有这样，你才会一步步提高自己的实战能力和水平。
在《孙子兵法》之始计篇中讲道：“道者，令民与上同意也，故可以与之死，可以与之生，而不畏危……知之者胜，不知者不胜……计利以听，乃为之势，以佐其处。势者，因利而制权也……”
原文这里就不一一阐释了，而转换到股市中要变通为：首先，股市的大势要弄清楚，现在的市场是“熊”还是“牛”，这是根本。
其次，我国强劲的经济发展势头是任何人都阻挡不了的，这是大势。转到个股上来说，大家要买的股票，大家对其业绩和发展的前景都早已了然在胸吧。做股票不管是短线还是中线一定要看其本身的趋势，只要趋势没有走坏，不用管它一两周的调整。
不少个股也是如此，个股的Ｋ线不要太相信，那是庄家可以画出来的。一定要看清大势，看清个股，加上自己的综合判定，相信自己的操作。
“计利以听，乃为之势，以佐其处，势者，因利而制权也。”庄家的计谋就是要“讲”出来让你去听信，你听进去了以后当然就会进去了，在无形中你就成为他们的势了。庄家即使在说谎，谎言重复一千次就成了“真理”。因此，关键在于你自身对于谎言的综合的判断，对一些消息和政策一定要作出相应的鉴别。
“兵者，诡道也．故能而示之不能，用而示之不用，近而示之远，远而示之近，利而诱之，乱而取之……攻其无备，出其不意。”炒股其实就是你想赚钱，他也想赚钱，大家都想赚钱，可是去赚谁的钱呢？当然是谁的计谋用得好，谁最狡猾，谁就会赚到钱。
在实际操作中，投资者看好了一只股票，Ｋ线好得没话说，各项指标都很好，且感觉马上就要大涨，但一但你买进后，不是被套，就是亏钱。弄得你卖也不是，买也不是，无所适从。而某些看似不好的股票，Ｋ线及各项指标都不好甚至很糟糕，但往往就是这种股票一涨就是几个涨停。有时，你买进第二天手中的股票就低开横盘，突然再猛地一跌，让你来不及多想，你刚刚卖出后，它就又神奇地涨了上去。又中计了……因此，我对股友们强调不要太过于注重看待Ｋ线，你一定要读懂它才行。Ｋ线有时是庄家画出来的，从某种角度说，庄家的脾气是不同的，画出来的东西也是不一样的，因此，才会让人迷惑不解，大上其当。但也有好多老股民赚了，不是他们能看清庄家的计谋，而是由于他们很多年摸爬滚打练出来的感觉，正是这种感觉导致他们赚到钱。不论你的知识、文化有多高多深．有时候还是要向一些老股民学习和讨教的。
如果对股票了解的多少以及你对庄家做出来的Ｋ线的含义，你比别人对你准备所买的股票有着更深的了解，那么，你赚钱的概率和出击取胜的可能性就要比其他人大得多。这就是“夫未战而庙算胜者，得算多也；未战而庙算不胜者，得算少也。多算胜，少算不胜，而况于无算乎？吾以此观之，胜负见也。”
在炒作一只股票前，庄家会对这家上市公司的发展前景作出评估，后市可能会出现的利好或消息，他们都已仔细研究过，然后再具体让操盘手列出计划和可行性报告，审议通过了才会实施。由此可以看出他们所下的功夫。而回过头来看一下散户，有几个人这么仔细地调研过上市公司？当然，大家也许会想庄家投入得多，当然更操心了呀！我们才多少钱，能和人家比吗？我不否认散户的资金肯定要比庄家少得多，但是庄家的船大不好掉头，而散户说走就走，要比庄家灵活得多。这点是散户所独有的优势。但散户往往不注意发挥自己的优势，很轻易地就转为被动，采取最容易出错的追涨杀跌。
在买股票时，应该先考虑自己所能承受的亏损是多少，盈利到多少就必须卖出。这样，即使套住了或是买得过早了，对自己来说可以得到一个教训，你的经验会越来越多，只有这样，你才会一步步提高自己的实战能力和水平。
Who's Jordan Belfort? I'll Tell You Exactly Who He Is
Jordan Belfort is the biggest Wall Street crook you've never heard of. He was the king of funny business (not in the ha-ha way) during the bull market of the '90s, nicknamed "The Wolf of Wall Street." I profile Belfort on "Business Nation" this month, and you'll learn how he created a brokerage called Stratton Oakmont which functioned like a cult.
Belfort hired young, hungry brokers. Some hadn't even graduated from high school. All they had to do was swear loyalty to him, read his scripts over the phone while cold calling, and everyone would get rich. It was a classic pump and dump scheme where brokers would drive up the price of stocks, and then Belfort would dump the large chunks he and his partners controlled, cashing out. Then the stock prices would collapse.
And everyone at Stratton Oakmont did get rich. And then they all did a lot of drugs, drank a lot of expensive wine, bought a lot of outrageous toys, and threw outrageous parties populated by a lot of hookers. You have to hear this guy tell his own story to me. More details are in his new book "The Wolf of Wall Street," which has now been optioned for a movie, naturally. Leonardo Di Caprio is interested!
To me, the most amazing part of Jordan Belfort's story was his insane personal life. He says he flew his own helicopter while high, sank his 167-foot yacht (once owned by Coco Chanel) in the Mediterranean while high, drove with his 3-year-old daughter unbuckled beside him though a garage door while high. Belfort says at the height of his drug problem, he was taking 22 different medications: 20 quaaludes a day, balanced out by cocaine, the morphine, xanax, valium, etc. You name it, he abused it. I said to him, "Even if half of this is true (skeptical as always) how are you alive?" He says he was just really good about balancing it all out.
Belfort was finally arrested and convicted. And, in keeping with the insanity of it all, his cellmate turned out to be Tommy Chong, of Cheech and Chong fame. Chong was apparently serving time for selling bongs over the internet (I guess you can't do that sort of commerce across state lines). You'll hear from Chong in my report as well. He inspired Belfort to write the book.
By the way, my favorite part of the book is when Belfort goes to rehab. I actually laughed out loud during his tale of tortured redemption. Still tortured, though, and not laughing, are the people he ripped off to the tune of $200 million. You'll hear from one of them--Bill Moison, a successful real estate investor who got taken for $200,000.
I spent a lot time with Jordan both on Long Island, where he committed the crimes, and in Manhattan Beach, where he now lives to be close to his kids (he's divorced). He's charming, in a way. He tells hilarious stories, and yet he still impresses me as something of a desperate salesman, the short kid from Queens who wants fame and fortune.
Belfort hired young, hungry brokers. Some hadn't even graduated from high school. All they had to do was swear loyalty to him, read his scripts over the phone while cold calling, and everyone would get rich. It was a classic pump and dump scheme where brokers would drive up the price of stocks, and then Belfort would dump the large chunks he and his partners controlled, cashing out. Then the stock prices would collapse.
And everyone at Stratton Oakmont did get rich. And then they all did a lot of drugs, drank a lot of expensive wine, bought a lot of outrageous toys, and threw outrageous parties populated by a lot of hookers. You have to hear this guy tell his own story to me. More details are in his new book "The Wolf of Wall Street," which has now been optioned for a movie, naturally. Leonardo Di Caprio is interested!
To me, the most amazing part of Jordan Belfort's story was his insane personal life. He says he flew his own helicopter while high, sank his 167-foot yacht (once owned by Coco Chanel) in the Mediterranean while high, drove with his 3-year-old daughter unbuckled beside him though a garage door while high. Belfort says at the height of his drug problem, he was taking 22 different medications: 20 quaaludes a day, balanced out by cocaine, the morphine, xanax, valium, etc. You name it, he abused it. I said to him, "Even if half of this is true (skeptical as always) how are you alive?" He says he was just really good about balancing it all out.
Belfort was finally arrested and convicted. And, in keeping with the insanity of it all, his cellmate turned out to be Tommy Chong, of Cheech and Chong fame. Chong was apparently serving time for selling bongs over the internet (I guess you can't do that sort of commerce across state lines). You'll hear from Chong in my report as well. He inspired Belfort to write the book.
By the way, my favorite part of the book is when Belfort goes to rehab. I actually laughed out loud during his tale of tortured redemption. Still tortured, though, and not laughing, are the people he ripped off to the tune of $200 million. You'll hear from one of them--Bill Moison, a successful real estate investor who got taken for $200,000.
I spent a lot time with Jordan both on Long Island, where he committed the crimes, and in Manhattan Beach, where he now lives to be close to his kids (he's divorced). He's charming, in a way. He tells hilarious stories, and yet he still impresses me as something of a desperate salesman, the short kid from Queens who wants fame and fortune.
投资时必须了解的14条真理
Larry Swedroe的任务是拯救投资者，需要的话一次一人。
为了传播这一福音，Swedroe撰写投资方面的书籍，他还是位于圣·路易斯州Buckingham资产管理公司的董事。但他传教士性质的工作并不局限于那里：他是个电子预言家，为像Index Funds和Vanguard Diehards这样的网站传达信息。他的信词：忘记华尔街、媒体和共同基金的宣传；财务上通往长期成功的最佳路径是低成本消极投资，例如指数基金和外汇交易基金。
Swedroe 这个月有一本书上：今天成功的投资者：投资时必须了解的14条准则。他说：“我写这本书最基本的前提是投资者经历的数量极多的损失是可以避免的，而这根选择入市的时间是没有关系的。那些灾难都是可以避免的，人们能抱怨的只有他们自己或者他们的顾问。”
准则1：积极的交易是失败者的游戏
积极投资者的算术证明了，作为一个群体，所以积极投资者必须赚取相同的报酬，所有股票必须被某人拥有。
如果你明白了这个道理你就会明白为什么积极的交易是失败者的游戏。假设你在一个只有两支股票的世界：微软（MSFT：纳斯达克）和通用（GE：），在这里你不用付给经纪人佣金，不用付交易费。所有投资者大体上得到的回报是相同的。
如果市场上涨15％，拥有整个市场指数的被动交易者得到15%的收益。如果你在过去75年投资标普500，你得到10％的收益。这是个零和游戏。但积极的投资者不是零和游戏。是负和游戏，就像赌博。
因为做市商、机构等肯定赚钱，所以积极的投资者一定是亏钱的。
为了传播这一福音，Swedroe撰写投资方面的书籍，他还是位于圣·路易斯州Buckingham资产管理公司的董事。但他传教士性质的工作并不局限于那里：他是个电子预言家，为像Index Funds和Vanguard Diehards这样的网站传达信息。他的信词：忘记华尔街、媒体和共同基金的宣传；财务上通往长期成功的最佳路径是低成本消极投资，例如指数基金和外汇交易基金。
Swedroe 这个月有一本书上：今天成功的投资者：投资时必须了解的14条准则。他说：“我写这本书最基本的前提是投资者经历的数量极多的损失是可以避免的，而这根选择入市的时间是没有关系的。那些灾难都是可以避免的，人们能抱怨的只有他们自己或者他们的顾问。”
准则1：积极的交易是失败者的游戏
积极投资者的算术证明了，作为一个群体，所以积极投资者必须赚取相同的报酬，所有股票必须被某人拥有。
如果你明白了这个道理你就会明白为什么积极的交易是失败者的游戏。假设你在一个只有两支股票的世界：微软（MSFT：纳斯达克）和通用（GE：），在这里你不用付给经纪人佣金，不用付交易费。所有投资者大体上得到的回报是相同的。
如果市场上涨15％，拥有整个市场指数的被动交易者得到15%的收益。如果你在过去75年投资标普500，你得到10％的收益。这是个零和游戏。但积极的投资者不是零和游戏。是负和游戏，就像赌博。
因为做市商、机构等肯定赚钱，所以积极的投资者一定是亏钱的。
弱市炒股的四大秘笈
一、坚决做空
弱市特征已暴露无疑的情况下，在认清大势之后，你应坚决抛掉手中2／3的股票，因为有数据表明跌势中的卖出70％是对的，而涨势中的卖出70％是错的。许多散户一旦被套不是急于补仓，就是改为长线投资，任凭手中的股票肆意狂跌，然后待大势回暖再慢慢涨回。而有的股票已不能回到原来的价位，投资者惨遭损失。而如果你敢于做空，手里持有大量的现金，你就会在弱市中游刃有余，再用你手中的钱赚回失去的钱。
二、不要寻底，不要随便补仓
炒股的朋友在做完空后总喜欢寻底，以为买到底可以赚大钱，却总是屡买屡套。虽然许多的专业股票书及众多的报刊、杂志纷纷介绍了寻找底部的各种方法，但真正能在一波行情中找到底部的却往往是庄家不是广大的散户。散户要把功夫用在发现底部，确认底部，在转势时介入。一般底部的出现都是在连续创出三次新低以后，且成交量也多次创出地量，此时说明这最后一跌是由于当时缺乏承接导致的，一般不会有太大的解套盘。这时如果出现大阳线，且这之后的七个交易日内，阳线多于阴线且重心上移，成交量日渐放大，这便是介入的好时机。如上证指数在2000年7月7日及今年的2月22日以后都同时出现了上述特征，形成了转势。在没有同时出现这些信号前，大家切不要轻易介入抢反弹。
三、多看少动
在跌势中你虽然不能介入，正好为你日后选股奠定了基础。如果你准备以后购买哪只个股，在下跌中你就要注意分析该股历年的最高价、最低价及分别的成交量是多少，还要看本次下跌的支撑位和反弹的阻力位在哪里，再将现在大势及个股的基本面、成交量与以前进行比较，看发生了哪些变化，来预测它的底部在哪里。等大势根本逆转后再行动不迟。
四、重点关注累计跌幅较大的个股
在一轮下跌行情中，许多股票都会有20％以上的跌幅，而有的股票在基本面没有实质性的改变，累计跌幅却高达35％以上，且在下跌中连续放量，给人以价跌量增的感觉，似乎该股离底很远，其实那就是底。
跌市中掌握以上秘笈的目的，是为了在大势反转后有充足的资金，骑上大黑马，在股市中稳操胜券，这叫兵马未动，粮草先行。
弱市特征已暴露无疑的情况下，在认清大势之后，你应坚决抛掉手中2／3的股票，因为有数据表明跌势中的卖出70％是对的，而涨势中的卖出70％是错的。许多散户一旦被套不是急于补仓，就是改为长线投资，任凭手中的股票肆意狂跌，然后待大势回暖再慢慢涨回。而有的股票已不能回到原来的价位，投资者惨遭损失。而如果你敢于做空，手里持有大量的现金，你就会在弱市中游刃有余，再用你手中的钱赚回失去的钱。
二、不要寻底，不要随便补仓
炒股的朋友在做完空后总喜欢寻底，以为买到底可以赚大钱，却总是屡买屡套。虽然许多的专业股票书及众多的报刊、杂志纷纷介绍了寻找底部的各种方法，但真正能在一波行情中找到底部的却往往是庄家不是广大的散户。散户要把功夫用在发现底部，确认底部，在转势时介入。一般底部的出现都是在连续创出三次新低以后，且成交量也多次创出地量，此时说明这最后一跌是由于当时缺乏承接导致的，一般不会有太大的解套盘。这时如果出现大阳线，且这之后的七个交易日内，阳线多于阴线且重心上移，成交量日渐放大，这便是介入的好时机。如上证指数在2000年7月7日及今年的2月22日以后都同时出现了上述特征，形成了转势。在没有同时出现这些信号前，大家切不要轻易介入抢反弹。
三、多看少动
在跌势中你虽然不能介入，正好为你日后选股奠定了基础。如果你准备以后购买哪只个股，在下跌中你就要注意分析该股历年的最高价、最低价及分别的成交量是多少，还要看本次下跌的支撑位和反弹的阻力位在哪里，再将现在大势及个股的基本面、成交量与以前进行比较，看发生了哪些变化，来预测它的底部在哪里。等大势根本逆转后再行动不迟。
四、重点关注累计跌幅较大的个股
在一轮下跌行情中，许多股票都会有20％以上的跌幅，而有的股票在基本面没有实质性的改变，累计跌幅却高达35％以上，且在下跌中连续放量，给人以价跌量增的感觉，似乎该股离底很远，其实那就是底。
跌市中掌握以上秘笈的目的，是为了在大势反转后有充足的资金，骑上大黑马，在股市中稳操胜券，这叫兵马未动，粮草先行。
势
要跟从势
孙子曰：“势者，因利而制权也。
”将此运用到投资方面的意思就是：股票市场上的势就是资金的流动。金钱流动的强弱就代表封的强弱，势是因为期待赚钱而产生的。期待愈大，资金的流动性也就愈大，势就愈强，而其他人也会跟着这个势进行，所以也就加强了这个盛世，在这种状态下任何人都无法压制这个势。这势就会发挥意想不到的威力，而出现令人惊异的行情。
孙子认为在战争中，要保持站在有利的地位，只要拥有有利地位，势就永远在自己这边，但势的变动性很大。现在虽然在自己这边，可只要敌人一有动静，自己这方就有可能陷入不利的地位。
投资股票也是如此，因为大家都想赚钱，于是顺着强势而去买股票，股票也因此而一路高涨，但这时候只要某些人开始套利，那投资者赚钱的期待就会感到不安，买手采取观望的态度，势也就慢慢萎缩了。在此期间，如果卖压一增加，今后对于涨价的希望就会破灭，股价也会下跌。所以说，市场的动态是由势来决定和支配的，而自己的力量无法造成势的投资者，就只有跟着势来进行。但必须跟着势强的股票，以加强本身的势。
孙子曰：“势者，因利而制权也。
”将此运用到投资方面的意思就是：股票市场上的势就是资金的流动。金钱流动的强弱就代表封的强弱，势是因为期待赚钱而产生的。期待愈大，资金的流动性也就愈大，势就愈强，而其他人也会跟着这个势进行，所以也就加强了这个盛世，在这种状态下任何人都无法压制这个势。这势就会发挥意想不到的威力，而出现令人惊异的行情。
孙子认为在战争中，要保持站在有利的地位，只要拥有有利地位，势就永远在自己这边，但势的变动性很大。现在虽然在自己这边，可只要敌人一有动静，自己这方就有可能陷入不利的地位。
投资股票也是如此，因为大家都想赚钱，于是顺着强势而去买股票，股票也因此而一路高涨，但这时候只要某些人开始套利，那投资者赚钱的期待就会感到不安，买手采取观望的态度，势也就慢慢萎缩了。在此期间，如果卖压一增加，今后对于涨价的希望就会破灭，股价也会下跌。所以说，市场的动态是由势来决定和支配的，而自己的力量无法造成势的投资者，就只有跟着势来进行。但必须跟着势强的股票，以加强本身的势。
Monday, October 8, 2007
30歲前必定要犯錯?
相信有留意財經專欄的朋友都會估到，我這個題目是衝著財經界名人，信報<<投資者日記>>的作者曹仁超先生而命名的。
因為他有一睇法是鼓吹年青人去博﹑去冒險，他認為年青人在30歲前可以狠狠的輸一次，若在30歲前輸了，在人生之中還有足夠時間樣自己追回。坦白講，我自己都有這樣的經歷，在年青的時候輸了，足足輸了20多萬，對於當時儲錢能力有限的我也算是一次重大打擊。幸而自己不放棄，繼續學習投資，向真正的投資路前進。不過，我認為不是每個人都要狠狠的輸一次才懂得學習。我輸過，因為我不聰明，不懂得在投資前去學習，以前總是跟風炒賣，人買我就買。真正聰明的人，是懂得從別人身上學習。這些「別人」可以是父母﹑親友﹑老師﹑朋友﹑同事﹑名人等等。其實教育也是為了這目的，只有將學識一代傳一代，使下一代能青出於藍，人類知識才會有進步。電燈﹑汽車﹑飛機﹑電腦等也是一代接一代技術才得以發明。
投資的知識也是一樣，所以聰明的人就應學習，學習別人的正確投資方法，不犯別人相同的投資錯誤，眾所周知，不論巴菲特﹑東尼﹑林森池等皆提倡長線投資優質公司，既然有這樣清晰的投資方向，何不就趁自己年青的時候就運用這些投資技巧，好使自己有更長期的投資，增加回報。要知道，多5年的時間，複式的回報可以來得更大。所以，如果30歲前已經明白投資方法，沒有出大錯，大家的成功只會來得更快更多。
希望各位blog友都會是聰明人，不要持著自己年青，就隨便進行投機活動，特別是嶺南爆光 ，記得你在回應我的網誌中講過，「我覺得係我這個廿幾歲的年齡, 投機未嘗不可」，其實如果認同其他人行過的都是成功之路的話，何不早日踏上這條路上呢? 光靠勇氣，勉強去開創另一條路，到頭來辛苦的只會是自己。
因為他有一睇法是鼓吹年青人去博﹑去冒險，他認為年青人在30歲前可以狠狠的輸一次，若在30歲前輸了，在人生之中還有足夠時間樣自己追回。坦白講，我自己都有這樣的經歷，在年青的時候輸了，足足輸了20多萬，對於當時儲錢能力有限的我也算是一次重大打擊。幸而自己不放棄，繼續學習投資，向真正的投資路前進。不過，我認為不是每個人都要狠狠的輸一次才懂得學習。我輸過，因為我不聰明，不懂得在投資前去學習，以前總是跟風炒賣，人買我就買。真正聰明的人，是懂得從別人身上學習。這些「別人」可以是父母﹑親友﹑老師﹑朋友﹑同事﹑名人等等。其實教育也是為了這目的，只有將學識一代傳一代，使下一代能青出於藍，人類知識才會有進步。電燈﹑汽車﹑飛機﹑電腦等也是一代接一代技術才得以發明。
投資的知識也是一樣，所以聰明的人就應學習，學習別人的正確投資方法，不犯別人相同的投資錯誤，眾所周知，不論巴菲特﹑東尼﹑林森池等皆提倡長線投資優質公司，既然有這樣清晰的投資方向，何不就趁自己年青的時候就運用這些投資技巧，好使自己有更長期的投資，增加回報。要知道，多5年的時間，複式的回報可以來得更大。所以，如果30歲前已經明白投資方法，沒有出大錯，大家的成功只會來得更快更多。
希望各位blog友都會是聰明人，不要持著自己年青，就隨便進行投機活動，特別是嶺南爆光 ，記得你在回應我的網誌中講過，「我覺得係我這個廿幾歲的年齡, 投機未嘗不可」，其實如果認同其他人行過的都是成功之路的話，何不早日踏上這條路上呢? 光靠勇氣，勉強去開創另一條路，到頭來辛苦的只會是自己。
宋鸿兵
think in other people shoes.
thinks ahead and be prepare.
think of what hedge funds and syndicates will do before think of my own strategy.
宋鸿兵 said beware of the hedge funds, the hedge funds have not act yet. Once they act it will be nightmare for masses.
Hedge funds is waiting for their opportunities to attacked China just like they attacked Japan and South east Asia 10 years ago.
thinks ahead and be prepare.
think of what hedge funds and syndicates will do before think of my own strategy.
宋鸿兵 said beware of the hedge funds, the hedge funds have not act yet. Once they act it will be nightmare for masses.
Hedge funds is waiting for their opportunities to attacked China just like they attacked Japan and South east Asia 10 years ago.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
7 Oct 2007 - Uncle Lim seminar
If index cannot break resistance for 3 consecutive days, is bad sigh, sell. (consult Uncle Lim first.)
Reason:investors exhaust their funds, lacking funds to push up, correction coming.
How to be 1 steps ahead of the Masses ?
use MACD 8/17 & Stochastic 15/3/3
How to buy/sell before the masses ?
anticipate what BB will do ?
use MACD & Guppy.
Invest using Buffett FA method.
How to earn daily expenses ?
Don't use lagging indicators/methods.
search for future indicators.
BB methods:
1. accumulate slowly
2. entice Masses to buy
3. push up prices
4. Masses happy at the appreciation of prices - e.g. me, happy over a stock I bought Price shoot up, hold for longer period then lost again.
5. BB press the price lower.
6. BB still support the price
7. BB push up again
8. BB distribute
Signals:
1. Volume
2. price
3. STI
1. Yong Nam- TP $0.55
2. CSC
3. LantroVision
4. CES
5. Freight Links
6. HG
7. Alantac - can keep
8. YZJ
Reason:investors exhaust their funds, lacking funds to push up, correction coming.
How to be 1 steps ahead of the Masses ?
use MACD 8/17 & Stochastic 15/3/3
How to buy/sell before the masses ?
anticipate what BB will do ?
use MACD & Guppy.
Invest using Buffett FA method.
How to earn daily expenses ?
Don't use lagging indicators/methods.
search for future indicators.
BB methods:
1. accumulate slowly
2. entice Masses to buy
3. push up prices
4. Masses happy at the appreciation of prices - e.g. me, happy over a stock I bought Price shoot up, hold for longer period then lost again.
5. BB press the price lower.
6. BB still support the price
7. BB push up again
8. BB distribute
Signals:
1. Volume
2. price
3. STI
1. Yong Nam- TP $0.55
2. CSC
3. LantroVision
4. CES
5. Freight Links
6. HG
7. Alantac - can keep
8. YZJ
Friday, October 5, 2007
EMH
Skeptics of EMH argue that there exists a small number of investors who have outperformed the market over long periods of time, in a way which is difficult to attribute luck, including Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Bill Miller.These investors' strategies are to a large extent based on identifying markets where prices do not accurately reflect the available information, in direct contradiction to the efficient market hypothesis which explicitly implies that no such opportunities exist.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
HAWK
Peregrine Falcon = Psychology Focus
Devise my own strategy = Hong Arts of War King = HAWK
Do not be influence my noises
Turtle Trader = mechanical trading method
Do not try to be something you cannot do
be realistic
nobody can predict the future, nobody know what will happen tomorrow- John Henry
focus on my strength
focus on option
don't predict future, don't gamble, only win, don't guess, go for sure win
1. soccer bet draw sure win
2.fundamentals investing sure win
3.mechanical trading sure win
4.trend following on option sure win
No Second Best
trade with my own strategy - the strategy should be simple and easy to execute.
Pound on mistakes of mass investors.
Pound on their weaknesses of fear and greed.
my enemy : mass investors.
think like a hedge Fund, my opponents are the mass investors.
I am the hedge fund, I am Soros.
become like puntfast.
use my very own indicators, simple and easy and not a lagging indicators, must be one step ahead of other.
Be an contrarian.
do the opposite of the mass investors.
must try very hard to understand the psychology of mass investors.
Think like a hedge funds and act like an hedge funds.
mix with mass investors to understand their pyschologloy.
hedge funds is up again the mass investors, Hedge unds try to mislead the mass investors.
Refelvicity= market has mismatch info, mass investors make mistakes, be an opportunities and wait to pound on their mistakes.
Devise my own strategy = Hong Arts of War King = HAWK
Do not be influence my noises
Turtle Trader = mechanical trading method
Do not try to be something you cannot do
be realistic
nobody can predict the future, nobody know what will happen tomorrow- John Henry
focus on my strength
focus on option
don't predict future, don't gamble, only win, don't guess, go for sure win
1. soccer bet draw sure win
2.fundamentals investing sure win
3.mechanical trading sure win
4.trend following on option sure win
No Second Best
trade with my own strategy - the strategy should be simple and easy to execute.
Pound on mistakes of mass investors.
Pound on their weaknesses of fear and greed.
my enemy : mass investors.
think like a hedge Fund, my opponents are the mass investors.
I am the hedge fund, I am Soros.
become like puntfast.
use my very own indicators, simple and easy and not a lagging indicators, must be one step ahead of other.
Be an contrarian.
do the opposite of the mass investors.
must try very hard to understand the psychology of mass investors.
Think like a hedge funds and act like an hedge funds.
mix with mass investors to understand their pyschologloy.
hedge funds is up again the mass investors, Hedge unds try to mislead the mass investors.
Refelvicity= market has mismatch info, mass investors make mistakes, be an opportunities and wait to pound on their mistakes.
Monday, October 1, 2007
FATA
Focus438000
FATA Trading
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
My goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. My goals center on huge profits, high returns and low risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My Styles is looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. I use a host of possible combinations including position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Position traders for 2-10 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. I pursue a patient style with low activity levels. The goals would be focused on less trades, huge profits and very big stop-loss levels. End of day charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
Position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less.
Having the sense to pick the right investment propositions - and walk away from the others - is key to preserving as well as growing your capital.So I decided to tap their collective wisdom and posed a question to all of them: Whatare the key prerequisites to making it big in investment? Intelligence? Capital? Network?The first guy picked intelligence, network, hunger and discipline as the most importantfactors.'Capital, you can build it up slowly,' he said. He went on to recount the story of someone he knows who trades the market for a living. The guy was caught wrong-footed by the market and lost everything. Not willing to admit defeat, he borrowed $300,000 fromhis mother in 2001 as seed capital to start afresh. And today, his net worth is $40 million.I did a simple calculation on how one can grow the money so fast. Here's what I found:You'd have to grow your pot 23 per cent every quarter to achieve what this persondid in six years. In the bull market of the past three or four years, the prices of somestocks have appreciated 10 times or more in as short as three months.In such a market, picking the right stock and riding with it can be very rewarding.But to make his money grow as fast as it did, the person must have had the guts tomake big bets. Assuming a constant 23 per cent return a quarter, he would have had tostake all his capital and accumulated profits all the time.On the topic of limited capital, a financial market veteran who now manages his own fund had this advice. 'When you have limited capital, you have to increase the velocity of your capital. In other words, you have to go in and out very fast. Always make your money work hard.'How does one then identify the stocks or investments that have a high chance of yielding fast bucks?This is where network and intelligence comes in. One can, of course, observe
developments in the market and try to anticipate what will happen next. This requiresintelligence.For example, a couple of my friends constantly monitor the big picture for theirnext investment idea before the whole world wakes up to the opportunities.A case in point. As soon as it was known that an integrated resort would come up at
Marina Bay. Marina Bay, they reckoned, would be a desirable address in the years to come. They checked out the most iconic project there - The Sail@Marina - and compared prices there with those in other global cities. Their conclusion: Relative to other cities, The Sail@Marina was cheap. So these friends bought several units at The Sail@Marina in 2005. Today they are sitting on very handsome profits. NetworkAnother friend of mine ranks network above intelligence. 'Singapore is an insiders' market,' he said. 'If you know the right people you'll get to invest in the pre-IPOmarket, take up placement shares, etc.' In the past few years, pre IPO’s have beenalmost a sure bet, with very lucrative returns.It even applies to properties. Only the privileged are invited to pre-launches andgiven the opportunity to make an easy $200,000 or $300,000 in just two or threeweeks by simply flipping the units. So knowing the right people is an importantfactor.But my take is that you still need intelligence to make the most of a network.Obviously, if you have the money you will receive a lot of investment propositions.Having the sense to pick the right ones - and walk away from the others - is key topreserving as well as growing your capital.One friend's approach is to get information from various sources - read network. He then puts everything together to form his own go or no-go decision. For example, if a company's numbers look good and people in that industry tell him the management iscapable and trustworthy, and the company is executing plans to take advantage of anindustry upswing, and he notices that some very smart money has just gone into thecompany, chances are he will put his money into it.Entrepreneur spottinganother friend, a financial market veteran who has headed foreign investment houses,
says that identifying up-and-coming entrepreneurs is tremendously rewarding -financially and in terms of satisfaction.His boss took a bet on Li Ka-Shing when the latter was still selling plastic flowers, hesays. There are many opportunities up for grabs. But if you are not hungry, and are contentto just sit back and relax, your wealth is not going to grow fast.Hunger need not be for money. It can be hunger for an intellectual challenge, forthe satisfaction of getting it right and the recognition of being astute.With hunger, you are more diligent when looking for opportunities, more willing todo a little more research and think through more thoroughly the probabilities of successand failure and the likely outcome. Often times, wealth will be a natural by-product.Discipline, meanwhile, is about going through the same rigors for every investment, about admitting mistakes, cutting your losses and moving on.It is also about properly managing risks, not over-gearing yourself and making capitalpreservation a major goal. For the lazy and uninitiated, the stock market is a dangerous place.And finally, you should not downplay the role of luck. The first guy said he has always been lucky. In the previous bull market, his colleagues complained about how their clients' statements and transactions were processed very slowly because backroom staff was so overloaded with work. He lingered to chat with the backroom staff. During the conversation, he found out that they had to handle so many new account openings. 'Grandmas and pops and even blind men are opening accounts,' he was told.That sounded an alarm. The next morning, he went into the office, told his colleagueswhat he had heard and asked them to clear their positions. But nobody listened. He took his own advice and sold everything he had. The market continued to run a bit more - then took a sudden south turn. His colleagues couldn't sell fast enough and suffered significant losses. He emerged unscathed.Concluding thoughtsAfter speaking to and observing many successful investors, I believe you need all the above - intelligence, hunger, capital, network, discipline and luck - to succeed ona sustained basis.With intelligence and hunger, and that little bit of luck, you can amass capital. Discipline and network can send that capital on the next phase of growth - this time, with a steeper trajectory.Some people go for value, invest for the long term and allow the compounding effect to work. Some trade in and out, creating a lot of velocity with their capital. A few are constantly on the lookout for arbitrage opportunities - almost risk-less propositions with near-guaranteed profit - present in mergers and acquisition deals.You have to find a style that suits your temperament and situation.
For most of us with day jobs, the first option is the most viable. And it's not any less of an option. Pure and simple analysis of a company's financial statements, plus an understanding of its business can - without any access to privileged information - earn you just as good a return as any trader or fund manager.There are a lot of opportunities, especially in the last few years and in the coming years as China and India develop and billions of consumers enter the marketplace. Enormous wealth will be created.
Fundamental analysts believe that a business' fair value will eventually be reflected by the market. This allows investors to gain from the market mispricing. Investors may use fundamental analysis within different portfolio management styles.
Buy and hold investors believe that latching onto good businesses allows the investor's asset to grow with the business. Fundamental analysis lets them find 'good' companies, so they lower their risk and probability of wipeout.
They may use fundamental analysis to correctly value 'good' and 'bad' companies. Even 'bad' company's stock goes up and down, creating opportunities for profits.
Contrarian investors distinquish "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, not a weighing machine". Fundamental analysis allows you to make your own decision on value, and ignore the market.
Value investors restrict their attention to lower valued companies, believing that 'its hard to fall out of a ditch'. The value comes from fundamental analysis.
Top-down and Bottom-up
Investors can use either a top-down or bottom-up approach.
The top-down investor starts his ananlysis with global economics, including both international and national economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, productivity, and energy prices. He narrows his search down to regional/industry analysis of total sales, price levels, the effects of competing products, foreign competition, and entry or exit from the industry. Only then does he narrow his search to the best business in that area.
The bottom-up investor starts with specific businesses, regardless of their industry/region.
Procedures
The analysis of a business' health starts with financial statement analysis that includes ratios. It looks at dividends paid, operating cash flow, new equity issues and capital financing. The earnings estimates and growth rate projections published widely by Thomson Financial and others can be considered either 'fundamental' (they are facts) or 'technical' (they are investor sentiment) based on your perception of their validity.
The determined growth rates (of income and cash) and risk levels (to determine the discount rate) are used in various valuation models. The foremost is the discounted cash flow model, which calculates the present value of the future dividends received by the investor, along with the
eventual sale price.
earnings of the company, or
cash flows of the company.
The simple model commonly used is the Price/Earnings ratio. Implicit in this model of a perpetual annuity (Time value of money) is that the 'flip' of the P/E is the discount rate appropriate to the risk of the business. The multiple accepted is adjusted for expected growth (that is not built into the model).
Growth estimates are incorporated into the PEG ratio but the math does not hold up to analysis. Its validity depends on the length of time you think the growth will continue.
Computer modeling of stock prices has now replaced much of the subjective interpretation of fundamental data (along with technical data) in the industry. Since about year 2000, with the power of computers to crunch vast quantities of data, a new career has been invented. At some funds the manager's decisions have been replaced by proprietary mathematical models.
Selection criteria for fundamental stocks (in order of preference): 1. Potential to be a multi bagger (share price can double, triple, etc)2. NTA is at a significant discount to current market price. NTA to me is cash and Singapore properties. This gives a good margin of safety.3. Strong cash flow with conservative accounting.4. It is in a growth industry and has good competitive advantage. The business is scalable. It is not a professional type business.5. Its products can command a premium. It has a brand name or a unique product. It is not a commodity.6. It has strong recurring income.7. Credible management (e.g., no talking up stocks, false promises or creative accounting).
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly low level of risk. Because of low risk, I would allot all my CPF money and high percentage (50%) of my cash portfolio to this strategy.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a prudence money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 40% of my total trading capital. If my total cash portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 20,000 (50,000 * 40%).
STRATEGY:
1. Focus on only a few stocks2. Identify a tipping point for each stock (e.g. building a MRT station next to its key property)3. Buy slowly into any stock (as my timing is usually not good)4. My investments are long term (This is money I can afford to leave under the pillow for years) 5. Low liquidity is OK (I am a collector and have no intentions of selling early)6. Have an exit price for each stock (but be prepared to sell when prospects are not as rosy or when the entire market is on a bearish mega trend)
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels.
To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line).
Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator) to enter a trade.
I pursue a conservative (low-risk) strategy for trading with a big portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio. The bulk for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less.
Sniper Trading
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 7% to speculate for short-term gains.
The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volume, high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead.
3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
FATA Trading
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
My goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. My goals center on huge profits, high returns and low risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My Styles is looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. I use a host of possible combinations including position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Position traders for 2-10 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. I pursue a patient style with low activity levels. The goals would be focused on less trades, huge profits and very big stop-loss levels. End of day charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
Position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less.
Having the sense to pick the right investment propositions - and walk away from the others - is key to preserving as well as growing your capital.So I decided to tap their collective wisdom and posed a question to all of them: Whatare the key prerequisites to making it big in investment? Intelligence? Capital? Network?The first guy picked intelligence, network, hunger and discipline as the most importantfactors.'Capital, you can build it up slowly,' he said. He went on to recount the story of someone he knows who trades the market for a living. The guy was caught wrong-footed by the market and lost everything. Not willing to admit defeat, he borrowed $300,000 fromhis mother in 2001 as seed capital to start afresh. And today, his net worth is $40 million.I did a simple calculation on how one can grow the money so fast. Here's what I found:You'd have to grow your pot 23 per cent every quarter to achieve what this persondid in six years. In the bull market of the past three or four years, the prices of somestocks have appreciated 10 times or more in as short as three months.In such a market, picking the right stock and riding with it can be very rewarding.But to make his money grow as fast as it did, the person must have had the guts tomake big bets. Assuming a constant 23 per cent return a quarter, he would have had tostake all his capital and accumulated profits all the time.On the topic of limited capital, a financial market veteran who now manages his own fund had this advice. 'When you have limited capital, you have to increase the velocity of your capital. In other words, you have to go in and out very fast. Always make your money work hard.'How does one then identify the stocks or investments that have a high chance of yielding fast bucks?This is where network and intelligence comes in. One can, of course, observe
developments in the market and try to anticipate what will happen next. This requiresintelligence.For example, a couple of my friends constantly monitor the big picture for theirnext investment idea before the whole world wakes up to the opportunities.A case in point. As soon as it was known that an integrated resort would come up at
Marina Bay. Marina Bay, they reckoned, would be a desirable address in the years to come. They checked out the most iconic project there - The Sail@Marina - and compared prices there with those in other global cities. Their conclusion: Relative to other cities, The Sail@Marina was cheap. So these friends bought several units at The Sail@Marina in 2005. Today they are sitting on very handsome profits. NetworkAnother friend of mine ranks network above intelligence. 'Singapore is an insiders' market,' he said. 'If you know the right people you'll get to invest in the pre-IPOmarket, take up placement shares, etc.' In the past few years, pre IPO’s have beenalmost a sure bet, with very lucrative returns.It even applies to properties. Only the privileged are invited to pre-launches andgiven the opportunity to make an easy $200,000 or $300,000 in just two or threeweeks by simply flipping the units. So knowing the right people is an importantfactor.But my take is that you still need intelligence to make the most of a network.Obviously, if you have the money you will receive a lot of investment propositions.Having the sense to pick the right ones - and walk away from the others - is key topreserving as well as growing your capital.One friend's approach is to get information from various sources - read network. He then puts everything together to form his own go or no-go decision. For example, if a company's numbers look good and people in that industry tell him the management iscapable and trustworthy, and the company is executing plans to take advantage of anindustry upswing, and he notices that some very smart money has just gone into thecompany, chances are he will put his money into it.Entrepreneur spottinganother friend, a financial market veteran who has headed foreign investment houses,
says that identifying up-and-coming entrepreneurs is tremendously rewarding -financially and in terms of satisfaction.His boss took a bet on Li Ka-Shing when the latter was still selling plastic flowers, hesays. There are many opportunities up for grabs. But if you are not hungry, and are contentto just sit back and relax, your wealth is not going to grow fast.Hunger need not be for money. It can be hunger for an intellectual challenge, forthe satisfaction of getting it right and the recognition of being astute.With hunger, you are more diligent when looking for opportunities, more willing todo a little more research and think through more thoroughly the probabilities of successand failure and the likely outcome. Often times, wealth will be a natural by-product.Discipline, meanwhile, is about going through the same rigors for every investment, about admitting mistakes, cutting your losses and moving on.It is also about properly managing risks, not over-gearing yourself and making capitalpreservation a major goal. For the lazy and uninitiated, the stock market is a dangerous place.And finally, you should not downplay the role of luck. The first guy said he has always been lucky. In the previous bull market, his colleagues complained about how their clients' statements and transactions were processed very slowly because backroom staff was so overloaded with work. He lingered to chat with the backroom staff. During the conversation, he found out that they had to handle so many new account openings. 'Grandmas and pops and even blind men are opening accounts,' he was told.That sounded an alarm. The next morning, he went into the office, told his colleagueswhat he had heard and asked them to clear their positions. But nobody listened. He took his own advice and sold everything he had. The market continued to run a bit more - then took a sudden south turn. His colleagues couldn't sell fast enough and suffered significant losses. He emerged unscathed.Concluding thoughtsAfter speaking to and observing many successful investors, I believe you need all the above - intelligence, hunger, capital, network, discipline and luck - to succeed ona sustained basis.With intelligence and hunger, and that little bit of luck, you can amass capital. Discipline and network can send that capital on the next phase of growth - this time, with a steeper trajectory.Some people go for value, invest for the long term and allow the compounding effect to work. Some trade in and out, creating a lot of velocity with their capital. A few are constantly on the lookout for arbitrage opportunities - almost risk-less propositions with near-guaranteed profit - present in mergers and acquisition deals.You have to find a style that suits your temperament and situation.
For most of us with day jobs, the first option is the most viable. And it's not any less of an option. Pure and simple analysis of a company's financial statements, plus an understanding of its business can - without any access to privileged information - earn you just as good a return as any trader or fund manager.There are a lot of opportunities, especially in the last few years and in the coming years as China and India develop and billions of consumers enter the marketplace. Enormous wealth will be created.
Fundamental analysts believe that a business' fair value will eventually be reflected by the market. This allows investors to gain from the market mispricing. Investors may use fundamental analysis within different portfolio management styles.
Buy and hold investors believe that latching onto good businesses allows the investor's asset to grow with the business. Fundamental analysis lets them find 'good' companies, so they lower their risk and probability of wipeout.
They may use fundamental analysis to correctly value 'good' and 'bad' companies. Even 'bad' company's stock goes up and down, creating opportunities for profits.
Contrarian investors distinquish "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, not a weighing machine". Fundamental analysis allows you to make your own decision on value, and ignore the market.
Value investors restrict their attention to lower valued companies, believing that 'its hard to fall out of a ditch'. The value comes from fundamental analysis.
Top-down and Bottom-up
Investors can use either a top-down or bottom-up approach.
The top-down investor starts his ananlysis with global economics, including both international and national economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, productivity, and energy prices. He narrows his search down to regional/industry analysis of total sales, price levels, the effects of competing products, foreign competition, and entry or exit from the industry. Only then does he narrow his search to the best business in that area.
The bottom-up investor starts with specific businesses, regardless of their industry/region.
Procedures
The analysis of a business' health starts with financial statement analysis that includes ratios. It looks at dividends paid, operating cash flow, new equity issues and capital financing. The earnings estimates and growth rate projections published widely by Thomson Financial and others can be considered either 'fundamental' (they are facts) or 'technical' (they are investor sentiment) based on your perception of their validity.
The determined growth rates (of income and cash) and risk levels (to determine the discount rate) are used in various valuation models. The foremost is the discounted cash flow model, which calculates the present value of the future dividends received by the investor, along with the
eventual sale price.
earnings of the company, or
cash flows of the company.
The simple model commonly used is the Price/Earnings ratio. Implicit in this model of a perpetual annuity (Time value of money) is that the 'flip' of the P/E is the discount rate appropriate to the risk of the business. The multiple accepted is adjusted for expected growth (that is not built into the model).
Growth estimates are incorporated into the PEG ratio but the math does not hold up to analysis. Its validity depends on the length of time you think the growth will continue.
Computer modeling of stock prices has now replaced much of the subjective interpretation of fundamental data (along with technical data) in the industry. Since about year 2000, with the power of computers to crunch vast quantities of data, a new career has been invented. At some funds the manager's decisions have been replaced by proprietary mathematical models.
Selection criteria for fundamental stocks (in order of preference): 1. Potential to be a multi bagger (share price can double, triple, etc)2. NTA is at a significant discount to current market price. NTA to me is cash and Singapore properties. This gives a good margin of safety.3. Strong cash flow with conservative accounting.4. It is in a growth industry and has good competitive advantage. The business is scalable. It is not a professional type business.5. Its products can command a premium. It has a brand name or a unique product. It is not a commodity.6. It has strong recurring income.7. Credible management (e.g., no talking up stocks, false promises or creative accounting).
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly low level of risk. Because of low risk, I would allot all my CPF money and high percentage (50%) of my cash portfolio to this strategy.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a prudence money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 40% of my total trading capital. If my total cash portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 20,000 (50,000 * 40%).
STRATEGY:
1. Focus on only a few stocks2. Identify a tipping point for each stock (e.g. building a MRT station next to its key property)3. Buy slowly into any stock (as my timing is usually not good)4. My investments are long term (This is money I can afford to leave under the pillow for years) 5. Low liquidity is OK (I am a collector and have no intentions of selling early)6. Have an exit price for each stock (but be prepared to sell when prospects are not as rosy or when the entire market is on a bearish mega trend)
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels.
To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line).
Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator) to enter a trade.
I pursue a conservative (low-risk) strategy for trading with a big portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio. The bulk for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less.
Sniper Trading
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 7% to speculate for short-term gains.
The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volume, high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead.
3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Dream
Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream
Focus
What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor
How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard
Beliefs
Self-Hynothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich
Focus438000
ZenTurtleRaider
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast
Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet
Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed
成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念
投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子
日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。
百富寓勤
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream
Focus
What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor
How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard
Beliefs
Self-Hynothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich
Focus438000
ZenTurtleRaider
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast
Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet
Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed
成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念
投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子
日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。
百富寓勤
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Destiny
Trading is my destiny, I can kill the market sentiment, bully other traders, destroy other traders financially and be myself.
Markets
The markets including FX markets, options markets and stock market is a fierce battle field. No mercy, no pity, it is tough. But from outside, it look peaceful and relax. Don't be fool by it's exterior, it is bloody & uncompromising place.
Take care.
Take care.
How to be a Warren Buffett
1. Confidence in one's analysis
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
Feelings
govt and people have different interests, don't always follow govt.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Daily Tasks
1. Submit letter & photos to SCDF
2. Set up FX laptop
3. Devise trading strategy
4. settle divorce
5. settle home loan
6.
2. Set up FX laptop
3. Devise trading strategy
4. settle divorce
5. settle home loan
6.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Self Management
Everyday I must do self-management.
Analyse :
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
3. How to ???
Analyse :
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
3. How to ???
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Betting Strategy
1. Soccer
-bet on one team for draw continuely (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
-bet on one team for draw continuely (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
Monday, September 24, 2007
Times
Times is short
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 5% to speculate for short-term gains.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit
high volume,
high volatility and
high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%.
If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. 3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 5% to speculate for short-term gains.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit
high volume,
high volatility and
high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%.
If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. 3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Arthur Hill On Goals, Style and Strategy
Before investing or trading, it is important to develop a strategy or game plan that is consistent with your goals and style. The ultimate goal is to make money (win), but there are many different methods to go about it.
As with many aspects of trading, many sports offer a good analogy. A football team with goals geared towards ball control and low-scoring games might adapt a conservative style that focuses on the run. Teams that want to score often and score quickly are more likely to pursue an aggressive style geared towards passing. Teams are usually aware of their goal and style before they develop a game plan. Investors and traders can also benefit by keeping in mind their goals and style when developing a strategy.
Goals
First and foremost are goals. The first set of questions regarding goals should center on risk and return. One cannot consider return without weighing risk. It is akin to counting your chickens before they are hatched. Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. At one end of the spectrum are US Treasury bonds, which offer the lowest risk (so-called risk free rate) and a guaranteed return. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
After your goals have been established, it is time to develop or choose a style that is consistent with achieving those goals. The expected return and desired risk will affect your trading or investing style. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. If your goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, then bottom picking strategies and gap trading may be your style.
Styles range from aggressive day traders looking to scalp 1/4-1/2 point gains to investors looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. In between, there are a whole host of possible combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader. Make sure your level of commitment jibes with your trading style. The more trading involved, the higher the level of commitment.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (5-10%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 5% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 300,000, then I might allocate 21,000 (7%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 21,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 1050 (21,000 * 5%).
STRATEGY:
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends. In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution). My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (PPO and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the PPO and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum (PPO) and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator). As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
This is just one hypothetical strategy that combines goals with style and commitment. Some people have different portfolios that represent different goals, styles and strategies. While this can become confusing and quite time consuming, separate portfolios ensure that investment activities pursue a different strategy than trading activities. For instance, you may pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of your portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of your portfolio. If a small percentage (~5-10%) is earmarked for trading and the bulk (~90-95%) for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less. However, if too much of a portfolio (~50-60%) is at risk through aggressive trading, the equity swings and the emotional strain could be large.
As with many aspects of trading, many sports offer a good analogy. A football team with goals geared towards ball control and low-scoring games might adapt a conservative style that focuses on the run. Teams that want to score often and score quickly are more likely to pursue an aggressive style geared towards passing. Teams are usually aware of their goal and style before they develop a game plan. Investors and traders can also benefit by keeping in mind their goals and style when developing a strategy.
Goals
First and foremost are goals. The first set of questions regarding goals should center on risk and return. One cannot consider return without weighing risk. It is akin to counting your chickens before they are hatched. Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. At one end of the spectrum are US Treasury bonds, which offer the lowest risk (so-called risk free rate) and a guaranteed return. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
After your goals have been established, it is time to develop or choose a style that is consistent with achieving those goals. The expected return and desired risk will affect your trading or investing style. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. If your goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, then bottom picking strategies and gap trading may be your style.
Styles range from aggressive day traders looking to scalp 1/4-1/2 point gains to investors looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. In between, there are a whole host of possible combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader. Make sure your level of commitment jibes with your trading style. The more trading involved, the higher the level of commitment.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (5-10%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 5% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 300,000, then I might allocate 21,000 (7%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 21,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 1050 (21,000 * 5%).
STRATEGY:
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends. In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution). My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (PPO and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the PPO and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum (PPO) and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator). As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
This is just one hypothetical strategy that combines goals with style and commitment. Some people have different portfolios that represent different goals, styles and strategies. While this can become confusing and quite time consuming, separate portfolios ensure that investment activities pursue a different strategy than trading activities. For instance, you may pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of your portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of your portfolio. If a small percentage (~5-10%) is earmarked for trading and the bulk (~90-95%) for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less. However, if too much of a portfolio (~50-60%) is at risk through aggressive trading, the equity swings and the emotional strain could be large.
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