Tuesday, November 25, 2014

成就事业的五大力量

一、梦想的力量
一个人一生的成就和自己的不断的梦想有关,学会给自己和别人造梦吧!有梦,坚持梦想也是一种习惯、一种追求、一种生活方式!别人说什么,别人不理解,不用解释,只能用事实证明!

二、定位的力量
认清自己在哪里,要去哪里。目前是什么不重要,未来是什么才重要!定位是领导者就要承担一切,定位是跟随者就要积极配合,不抱怨、不消极,状态好坏自己不清时别人都能看的出。加满油,看着路标,向目标前行吧!

三、相信的力量
永远相信自己,别人能我也能,潜力是无限的,你的信念不倒,没人能将你推倒!相信你心中的老师,你相信,随之而来的都是正能量!

四、改变的力量
我们需要素质,但真正成功需要的是特质、梦想、心态和信仰,面对挫折还要有一颗平和镇定的心!即使我们爬上几座山,面对另一座山,我们还得从山底出发!

五、专注的力量
现实中机会很多,但适合我们的有哪些?美女帅哥很多,适合自己的只能有一个。事业和家庭要经营好,专注、忠诚、包容、付出、责任尤为重要!我们不做别人的工具,也不把别人当工具,我们是永久的伙伴!人生有梦,追梦,做梦,造梦,守梦,实现梦,那就是真实而不梦。

Monday, November 24, 2014

这世上有两样东西是别人抢不走的:一是藏在心中的梦想,二是读进大脑的书。

这世上有两样东西是别人抢不走的:一是藏在心中的梦想,二是读进大脑的书。

如何捕捉搵錢機會

11月17日,滬港通開通,反應欠佳。翌日我在本欄重提4月10日滬港通訊息宣佈後,恒指反覆下跌一個月的事,事有湊巧?滬港通的訊息公佈後與滬港通正式開通後,港股的表現竟然如此相似,有沒有大戶的手影在後面,更耐人尋味的是,11月21日,中國政府突然宣佈減息,是否為滬港通護航?同日我在本欄提到:該止蝕的也止蝕了,現在,這批仍死守不放的人,總算迎來減息的好消息。
過去,我已多次提到,中國政府的金融政策在相當程度上,是與美國政府對着幹︰美國放水,中國收水;美國收水,中國放水。也不錯,這個世界的金融秩序能夠更平衡,如果中國緊隨美國放水而放水,收水而收水,世界經濟肯定會比目前更動盪,風險更高。  

滬港通慢熱冇問題
減息對許多行業都有利,房地產業可能得益較大,內房股也是我近一段日子轉看好的股,已多次推薦,我認為內房股應該已見底,正在由谷底回升。
市場永遠存在機會,一個機會又一個機會,不過,機會一閃而過,你能不能捕捉的到。或者,看着機會一個又一個地出現,然後消失;或者,機會來了,身上都沒有錢來捕捉機會。我又有一本新書出版了,書名是《錢總留給準備好的人》,顧名思義,就是如何做好準備,在機會出現時能有效地捕捉。滬港通肯定是機會,這是人民幣走向國際,中國開放資本賬重要的過程,只許成功不許失敗,開始的時候慢熱不是問題,應該耐心地等待收穫。

Sunday, November 23, 2014

一生很短,别去等永远...

曾看到过这样一句话:不要去等明天,不要去相信永远,你所能做的,就是眼前。你所爱,为尔所为。没有人会等你,在这风雨飘摇的人生路上。你所能做的,就是让自己更快、更强。

  所谓的永远,只是自卑的借口,强者不会选着等待。纵然时间流逝,即使时光轮转,岁月无言,如果今生缘未了,来世再叙,话茶余饭后,看似水流年……只是永远的永远是多远?你算得准吗?

  总是期待着我们会在相见,说着铿锵有力的誓言,却殊不知,谁也抵不过时间,永远不要赌时间,我们赌不起。再久的永远也是有限的,这个世界上,本就没有什么永恒。

  “山无陵,天地合。冬雷震震,夏雨,乃敢与君绝。”终敌不过时间的轮转,岁月的流逝。不绝终有绝!你会记得永不相忘的承诺吗?真的能及永远吗?如果失忆了,还会记得吗?如果死去了,拿什么去继续那永不相忘的承诺?这是不是在欺骗?
  天际流云瞬息变,地上沧海成桑田,从牙牙学语到苍苍暮年似乎只有一步之遥,宛转蛾眉能几时,须臾鹤发乱为丝,人生之旅,恍然飘过,都还没来得及体会四季阳光的温变幻,便夕阳一抹,便走入了长长的黑夜之中…

  没有机会回味,更没机会后悔,人生竟只有一张单程车票,任何叹息愧疚都无法使岁月的车轮逆转,所以,一切事都赶快做,别去等,有这样一句话:除了死,什么都不宜迟。

  真的没有永远,生活中,明明有很多事,我们是有机会做的,却一天一天推迟,想做的时候,却发现机会错过了;生活中,明明有很多话我们是有机会说的,却想着以后再说,要说的时候,发现已经没必要说了;生活中,明明有很多爱,我们是有机会把握的,却不在意没在乎,想爱的时候,已经来不及了。

  别再等永远,真的等不起。如果你真的希望永远,那么,所谓的永远就是今天,就是我们所度过的每一个小时,每一秒钟,永远其实并不远,它其实只是一个瞬间,一个眨眼的瞬间,落叶离开树的瞬间,猎豹驰过草原的瞬间……好好珍惜眼前吧。与其说着永远不忘记,不如时常联系,也许你的一声小小的问候,就会让对方刻骨铭心。
  不要去等永远,你所做的一切,就是永远,那一个个瞬间,就是永远。珍惜每一份拥有,拥抱每一份阳光,在你还有力气张开双臂的时候,千万不要吝啬,也许,下一秒过后,你便再也没有机会了,好好珍惜眼前的一切吧!

  不要等到末日,才发觉,该说的话还没有说,该做的事还没有做, 该见的人还没有见,该牵的手还没有牵……

Thursday, November 20, 2014

恐慌怎影響投資回報

投資市場上,所有人都知道要低買高沽,但現實中,絕大部分人都是低沽高追,這和人性與情緒有莫大關係。
大部份投資者都曾經方寸大亂,當股市下跌時會出現恐慌情緒:(1)如果手上沒有貨,要在跌市中買貨,也是萬般不願。跌市,即是賣的錢比想買的錢多,跌市中買,就是和主流意見不同;人都是具社會性,希望被認同,獨立行事,有一定的心理壓力。(2)如果手上持有重倉的,更是痛苦非常,往往希望在最低位時壯士斷臂或引刀成一快。
以下是一個心理學的實驗,反映人的恐懼如何使我們的回報減低。  

擲公字遊戲 樂觀派秤先

一個簡單的擲錢幣遊戲,你有20美元本金,可以玩20次。每次遊戲開始時,你會被問是否願意進行投資,如果你願意,成本是1美元。接着,一枚錢幣將公平地被翻轉,若翻出來是「公」,便可獲得2.5美元;翻出來是「字」,則損失1美元。
根據邏輯,該遊戲的輸贏機率一樣,因此最佳投資方法是你每次都玩。而每次投資的預估獲利回報是1.25美元,最終整體回報是25美元,獲得低於20美元的投資回報機率只有13%(即是比完全不玩更低的回報)。即使你在上一次投資贏了,亦不代表下一次投資會輸,畢竟錢幣是沒有記憶力的。
實驗人員決定邀請三組不同人士玩這遊戲:第一組人士比較特別,他們腦部受過傷害,沒辦法感受恐慌;第二組是正常人士,就似你我一樣,腦部沒受過傷;第三組人士腦部有受傷,但受傷部份不影響接收情緒反應。對此,你覺得哪組人士在遊戲中表現最好?
答案是,第一組人士不受恐慌情緒困擾,投資態度傾向樂觀,參與投資比例高達84%;第二組正常人的投資比例為58%;第三組人士的投資比例則為61%。
不會感到恐懼的那組人士,在上一輪輸錢情況下表現出絕佳定力,下一輪繼續投資的比例逾85%;另外兩組則跟第一組呈現巨大落差,就算只輸1美元,其恐懼和痛苦,讓他們下一輪繼續投資的比例跌至不足40%。
或許你會以為,隨着遊戲進行,人們會從錯誤中學習,並對遊戲掌握得更好,但事實不是如此。當實驗人員將20次遊戲拆分四回合,每回合玩五次後,結果發現,在四回合中不會感到恐懼的人,一直保持着相似的投資態度與參與比例;而那些正常人在第一輪五次遊戲中有70%參與投資比例,但到最後一輪五次的參與比例則跌至少於50%。遊戲進行越久,他們的投資決定就變得越糟糕。  

等見底入市 基金唔buy
正常人懂得恐懼,所得的回報卻更低。由於這個恐懼的因素,有不少人認為,應該等市況跌到底,然後再「寧買當頭起」。不過,正如著名的對沖基金Baupost的創辦人Seth Klarman說:「歷史上證明,這個策略是非常錯……低位的成交非常少,而且反彈速度可以非常快;因此,投資者應該在跌市中買貨,縱然知道市況在黎明前可以再黑多一點。」

人生,没有下辈子, 珍惜吧

人生,只有今生,没有来世。下辈子不过是一个虚无缥缈的梦。古往今来,秦皇汉武唐宗宋祖,谁有来生?蒙恬韩信李白杜甫岳飞于谦,谁有下辈子?

  人生,很短暂,只有区区几十年。在这风霜雪雨的几十年里,要经历太多的艰难困苦,要经过太多的人间烟火悲欢离合,要承载太多的责任和重担,要担当起承上启下的衔接和繁衍,要传承黑头发黄皮肤黑眼睛的龙的传人的血脉,还要活出一个大大的‘人’字,活出别样的精彩,“生当作人杰,死亦作鬼雄”,不枉此生。
  
  人生,只有今世,没有来世,人生的每一分每一秒都是那么的弥足珍贵。不要以为时间还早,不要以为年纪还小,不要以为生命很长,不要以为过了今天还有明天过了明天还有后天,每个人都不知道死亡和明天哪一个会先来。明日复明日,明日何其多!我生待明日,万事成蹉跎。我们能做的,必须要做的,就是把握今生,把握今天,并开心快乐的好好活着,甚至连生气的时间,抱怨的心态,都不该有!

  人生,只有今世,没有来世,知恩要趁早,报恩更要趁早。知遇之恩,养育之恩,教诲之恩,救命之恩,栽培之恩,这些恩情填满了我们的一生,让我们的日子变得有声有色,有滋有味,丰富多彩。树欲静而风不止,子欲养而亲不待。为人子女,乃人之血脉,人之骨肉,我们整个生命乃至一切都是父母所赐,所以赡养父母,孝敬父母,感恩养育,刻不容缓。乌鸦尚且反哺,羔羊且能跪乳。知恩图报,有恩必报,方问心无愧。
  
  人生,只有今世,没有来世,爱一个人就要坚定执着努力用心地去爱。爱他(她)就爱他(她)的全部,包括他(她)的家人、亲戚、朋友,包括他(她)优点和缺点。不要说下辈子好好照顾,不用承诺来世慢慢陪伴。今生能给多少给多少,能陪伴多久就陪伴多久,即使给不了他(她)全部,给不了他(她)天长地久,也要在彼此能相互陪伴的这段光阴里,互敬互爱互信互勉互助互让互谅互慰,即使不能甜蜜温暖一辈子,也要恩恩爱爱一阵子,三十年五十年最好,十年八载不嫌多,三年两载不嫌少,十天半月不长,三朝五日不短。只要心中有爱,只要心怀彼此,即便是一个瞬间的幸福拥抱,也该胜似百年春光……

  人生,只有今世,没有来世,不能活在童话里。转世投胎的神话其实都是骗人的鬼话,是编故事的人一厢情愿的善意的谎言,我们不是神仙妖怪不能死而复生,我们不是九头鸟可以九死九生,我们也不是梁山伯祝英台不可能死后变成翩翩蝴蝶……
  
  人生,只有今生,没有来世,别奢望有什么下辈子。生命只有一次,每个生命都是一个奇迹,每个生命都无比珍贵。生命是父母给的,不可以挥霍。生命是祖先的血脉,不可以作贱。好好活好这辈子,最最重要!
  
  人生,只有今生,没有来世。没有什么比活着更好,活着是最灿烂的辉煌,因为只有活着才有欢笑,才有幸福,才有灵动,才有感动和辉煌。
  
  人生,没有下辈子,当不虚此生!

铁兀鹰是什么?

铁兀鹰是什么?
铁鹰是期权交易策略,利用看跌期权价差和呼叫蔓延,并在其中交易者有四个不同行使价的期权头寸,都具有相同的到期日期/时间。 从这个定义中的铁神鹰的事实,有四种不同的行使价作出它就像蝴蝶传播垂直传播的一种形式。
铁鹰有两种形式:

a
)长期铁秃鹰外的行使价(1 次和第4 次 )好仓淡仓,而内行使价(2 号 ,3 号)。

b
)短期铁鹰:外履约价格(1 日和4 日 )内行使价(2 号 ,3 号 )好仓及淡仓。
在铁兀鹰,总是有两个看涨期权价差和两个看跌期权价差。 有没有幅枯的呼叫的数目或付诸利差。
铁鹰时使用的交易者持有的期权合约的标的资产未来价格变动既不看好也不看空。这样的前景通常是举行时有波动性低的资产,或当资产是在紧张,价格变动的合并范围。
交易范例 对于这个行业的例子,我们有一个股票XY,这是在每股45美元的交易。 交易商将铁鹰合同如下:

1 XY - 
长35把@每股0.50元(50美元)
- 
短1 XY 40把@每股1.00元($ 100)

- 
短1 XY 50呼叫@每股1.00元($ 100)

1 XY - 
长55呼叫@每股0.50元(50美元)
最大利润 的贸易仅限于交易商收到的保费时,铁鹰贸易设置的最大利润,减去支付任何佣金。 为了做到这一点,“铁鹰”选项必须于到期时的价格卖出看跌期权和看涨期权之间。 对于贸易上面的例子,这是$ 100(共短裤{200} - 总的多头{100})。
如果在合约到期时,股票的价格仍然为45美元,则该选项到期,交易者收取的保险费的贸易保持。 请记住,期望以盈利为目的的资产已经转移到上升或下跌的价格。
最大损失 如果股票价格下跌到35美元,到期时,所有的选项,但在短短的40调用将到期而毫无价值。 这种特殊的选项的内在价值的计算方法是减去目前的价格(35美元)的资产行使价($ 40),这是每股5美元或500美元的合同。 如果扣除的溢价(100美元),这将使得净亏损为400美元。
注意事项 另外一个最大的损失/利润,有两种盈亏平衡点的认购期权短的水平(+净保费)和卖出看跌期权(少净保费)。
在其他期权交易类型,交易者必须分析的相关资产看,它可能会保持不变,在合约到期时,为了获得贸易权。 如果交易者能得到这个权利,那么他会微笑着向银行发薪日。

铁神鹰 – 不交易,除非你知道如何调整

铁兀鹰策略是希望从股市中获利,而不必挑选方向为选项贸易商的大战略。理想的情况下,这些期权交易执行非趋势市场中最好的,但是,他们也可以成功地使用在市场趋势和波动比较大,只要他们已花费必要的时间,妥善管理,并调整它们的知识和能力的一个交易。
这是一个传播,需要利用THETA衰变在选项 – 选项是一个腐朽的资产,并随着时间的推移失去价值的事实。一旦被放在一个铁兀鹰贸易,到期日的方法 – 如“卖”的位置罢工放置远远不够外“危害方式”,这些行业可以正常到期作废铁兀鹰商一个丰厚的回报一个很短的时间。 实际上建2个独立的信用利差 – 一个在两端使用的基本是目前交易在铁神鹰。高于目前的交易价格的基本定位是承担呼叫传播。低于目前的交易价格定位,是一个把传播的牛市。根据正在使用的代理,这些可以分开放置,个别垂直价差,或作为一个铁神鹰贸易。
贸易的目标是由两个销售的信用利差创建“范围”内所载的基本停留。虽然在贸易上,基本可以在图表上移动,只要保持这个“范围”内所载的。 underyling人类走动太多,或在任一方向移动太远,将成为威胁贸易和交易商将需要采取某种行动,来管理和/或调整。
这种类型的交易策略提供了一个成功的概率非常高 – 可盈利的大部分时间。然而,重要的是要注意的风险,以奖励这些行业的比例是不理想的的 – 作为一个失去一个月,如果没有正确的管理,可以消灭一个值得整个年的收益。学习如何设置正确的利润指标,退出和停止损点,以及如何妥善管理和调整惹麻烦铁神鹰的立场,即获得相应的知识,长期与这个行业的长期成功是至关重要的。
当我第一次开始交易这一战略时,我发现自己赢得一个月后一个月 – 直到 – 突然,我击出糟糕的一个月,并提供所有东西,然后一些 – 只是因为我没有占用前的时间,正确地学习如何管理和调整。 如果我第一次听说只是几个简单的铁调整的提示,技巧,和简单的管理技术,发现在这个铁秃鹰网站的兀鹰的,我可以一直保持盈利,甚至与我周围的市场崩溃的休息。

排毒,可以休矣(人体排毒时间表的骗局 )

我因为经常晚睡,所以周围的朋友总是劝我早睡,引用的都是这个排毒时间表,心意我领了,但科学终究是科学,伪科学终究是伪科学。

2008年,昔日风光无限赫赫有名的“排毒教父” 林光常,因其推销的“排毒疗法”使数位癌症病人拒绝化疗,最终不幸死亡,随后遭到台湾司法部门的调查,并最终被法官判刑两年六个月。

我在谷歌上以“排毒”二字进行搜索,瞬间返回68,300,000 条结果,我大致看了部分,这些内容上大同小异的玩意儿,几乎无一不是胡扯,与现代医学科学相去甚远,更遑论指导生活护卫健康了。我们不妨随便找来一个这样的周期表,让我这个外科医生以精细解剖的手法对这玩意儿来个抽丝剥茧剔骨穿心。

以北方新报(呼和浩特) 2010年5月刊载的《人体排毒时间表》为例,这个表把人体的好多系统器官都给安排了一个特定的时段,认为在该时段是该器官的排毒时间,事实上果真如此么?

平日里,我们经常听人说睡觉对女孩子来说可以美容,但你是否知道,我们的身体很神奇,也有自己的排毒功能,下面就罗列一下人体排毒时间表,看你是否也疏忽了自己的排毒时间,影响自身健康――引自《人体排毒时间表》

――睡觉可以美容一说,由来已久,很多人不加思考地就信以为真,这大概跟既往的自身经验有关,比如熬夜会使人较为疲惫,神情憔悴,对于美人来说,此时的姿色当然会大打折扣,于是反向推出,睡觉可以美容也就显得顺理成章了,不过,这种因果关系的确立未免太过牵强,关于睡眠对健康的影响,其实是个极复杂的问题,我们稍后再说,还是先看看这个排毒时间到底是怎么样的吧。

每天晚上9:00~11:00的时候,是人体淋巴的排毒过程,免疫系统活跃起来,你应该静下心来,听听音乐,使自己尽量的保持安静。这样免疫系统就会很顺利地完成排毒工作,让你的免疫力增加。

――真相:作者可能连淋巴是怎么回事都没搞清楚,组织液进入淋巴管即为淋巴液,而组织液是血浆中的液体从毛细血管滤过而形成的,正常人每天生成2-4升淋巴液,大致相当于全身的血浆量。淋巴系统是时刻不停滴在循环的,全身的淋巴液最后经由全身的淋巴管收集,进入右淋巴管和胸导管,进入静脉。淋巴回流的生理意义在于回收蛋白质,运输脂肪及其他营养物质,调节体液平衡,防御和免疫功能。淋巴液在回流途中要经过多个淋巴结,在淋巴结中的淋巴窦内有大量具有吞噬功能的巨噬细胞,可以将红细胞细菌和其他微粒清除掉。这个过程是一直在发生的,9:00~11:00这个时间段对淋巴系统来说,一点儿都不特殊。


晚上11:00~凌晨1:00,肝脏开始排毒。你就应该熟睡了,不要熬夜,此时你不睡觉的话,你的肝脏就会因此很累,肯定要受损的。

――真相:肝脏是人体最大的腺体,不仅在糖蛋白质脂肪激素维生素的代谢方面与全身各组织器官密切相关,而且有分泌排泄生物转化的作用,肝脏的解毒功能便是一个生物转化过程,以酒精为例,酒精90%-98%经肝代谢(其余经肾和肺代谢)。代谢速度为100-200mg/h.kg, 一个70kg体重的人,每小时代谢酒精的量为7-14g,这个过程产生的代谢产物对人体有毒,如果想减少肝损害,不喝酒肯定有好处。就肝脏的解毒功能来说,其实它是个小时工,也就是你什么时候喝酒,它什么时候启动针对酒精的解毒功能,晚上11:00~凌晨1:00这个时段你要没喝酒,也就不存在解毒这回事了。

凌晨1:00~3:00,是胆排毒的时间。此时亦应继续熟睡,以便有利于肝胆的排毒。

――真相:很多人在对胆囊的认识问题上存在一个误区,想当然的认为胆汁是在胆囊产生的,其实胆汁由肝细胞连续分泌,在非消化期,胆汁生成后,经肝管流出,一部分进入十二指肠,一部分进入胆囊,浓缩贮存,在消化期胆囊收缩,胆汁排入小肠参与小肠内的消化。也就是说,胆囊排胆汁需要有食物的刺激,要是胆囊只在凌晨1:00~3:00这个时段排胆汁,那人的消化功能可真的要出问题了。

半夜到凌晨4:00,正是人的脊椎造血时段,必须要熟睡,千万不要熬夜啊!

――真相:胚胎期卵黄囊造血,其后肝脾造血,4个月后骨髓开始造血并逐渐增强,到婴儿出生时,完全靠骨髓造血,成年人若出现骨髓外的造血,已无代偿意义,属于造血功能紊乱。脊椎造血?地球人不是这样的。估计该文章作者是个半吊子,把成年人脊椎髂骨肋骨胸骨颅骨长骨近端骨骺处有造血骨髓这个知识点记串笼子了,至于凌晨至4点?鬼扯。

凌晨3:00~5:00,人的肺开始排毒了。平时咳嗽的人,此时就会加重咳嗽,但是,却不应该立即服用止咳药。以免抑制肺部废积物的迅速排出。

――真相:止咳药多数时候没用是对的,咳嗽本身不是病,而是呼吸系统某种疾病造成刺激的反应,需要对因治疗,比如如为细菌引起的肺炎,则需应用抗生素。肺的主要功能是呼吸,吸入氧气,排除二氧化碳,至于排毒……你故意吸进去一堆有毒废气试试就知道了,立刻会引起剧烈咳嗽,不管几点吸。

到了早晨5:00~7:00,就是人的大肠在排毒的时间了,此时就是你上厕所的最佳时机。假如你没有大便,就说明了你有不正常的地方了,很需要去医院看看了。检查一下究竟是哪里出了毛病。

――真相:什么时候有屎什么时候去拉,如果每天都4点半有便意,非要等到5点再去拉,这不是排便功能有问题,而是脑子被驴踢了。


早晨7:00~9:00,到了人的小肠开始大量吸收营养素的时间了。在这之前,你理应吃早餐。不然,你一天的营养就会匮乏。治疗疾病的人最好在6:30之前吃;养生的人可以在7:30前吃。奉劝那些不习惯吃早餐的朋友,务必养成每天吃早餐的好习惯,即便是拖到了9:00以后,也一定要吃。

――真相:小肠确系主要的吸收器官,包括水、无机盐、糖、脂肪、蛋白质、胆固醇,难道你晚上吃饭,小肠就不发挥吸收功能了?笑话!至于早餐时间,这个提法本来就是大部分人的进餐时间,是一句正确的废话,但没有证据证明不在这个时间段吃有什么危害,治疗疾病的养生的更无需非在某个时间点进餐不可。这段的说法,纯属煞有介事危言耸听。

以上就是针对呼和浩特版的《人体排毒时间表》的破解,如果读者诸君觉得不过瘾,我还可以接着破解齐鲁晚报2011年6月的《身体最佳养生排毒时间表》,不过这种大同小异煞有介事的玩意儿,按理说只要想明白一个,就应该彻底抛弃“排毒”这种荒诞不经的概念了,但有的人的大脑结构似乎比较奇怪,接受科学的观念十分困难,对胡扯却全无免疫能力,无论哪种骗局人家都能冲上去抢先被骗。

跟第一个版本的排毒时间表类似,只不过呼和浩特版的时间表更多地强调了睡觉的意义,“胆、肝、肺的排毒都需要在良好的睡眠下进行,所以睡眠质量很重要。”这个说法其实是巧妙地利用了一个并无大错的结论,裹夹的却是莫名其妙的私货。睡眠当然很重要,这不是废话么,你连续几天几夜不睡觉试试看,但睡眠的重要性,犯得着用“排毒”的提法来佐证么?

其实,缺少睡眠的恶果,可能很多人都深有体会,最明显的是,次日我们会感觉到无比困倦头昏脑胀,这当然主要是由于神经系统没有得到足够的休息造成的,于所谓的“排毒”无半点关系。另外,长时间的睡眠不足还可能导致人的免疫系统出现问题,从而更容易罹患某些疾病,比如经常有些人在一段时间的繁忙之后,出现了感冒之类的情况,那么睡眠不足又是怎么导致这些情况的呢?

在现实生活中,睡眠经常会成为被我们普通人牺牲掉的生理活动,比如加班工作、加班学习,通常而言,我们更感兴趣的是长期睡眠不足对健康的影响,毕竟没有人会连续几天几夜完全不睡觉,更常见的情况则是长积年累月由于工作或其他原因造成的睡眠缺乏。目前确实有有限的实验证据证明,缺乏足够睡眠可能导致人体免疫功能下降。但,这指的主要是睡眠时间,而非睡眠时段,几乎所有的排毒时间表中,都非常刻意地强调某个时段的睡眠多么多么重要,这种强调其实意义非常有限,一则多数人还是属于白天活动的哺乳动物,那些排毒表中提示应该睡觉的时候,他们确实在睡觉,也即人体的确存在昼夜节律,某些激素的分泌、合成代谢和分解代谢、睡眠和觉醒,情绪和工作效率等均在一天内有着高峰和低谷的周期性变化。只是那种排毒周期表的作者,怕是根本不懂这种节律,只是根据寻常经验搅拌上不伦不类不中不西的“理论”;二则偶尔需要熬夜的情况,通常对身体并无明显损害,也没有证据表明,同样的睡眠时间,在不同的时段却会对人体造成明显不同的影响,这个问题,我们想一下时区也就释然了,假如他们提到的那个排毒时间表确实存在,那么哈尔滨人和乌鲁木齐人的器官究竟是按照东六区的时段排毒还是东八区呢?不过,缺乏睡眠对人体其他方面的影响已经比较清楚了,例如血压上升、交感神经兴奋、内分泌和代谢改变、炎症反应增强以及心血管疾病发生率增高等等。因此,为了保持我们的身体健康,充足而规律的睡眠还是必不可少,可我们何必需要那个劳什子排毒时间表指导我们睡眠呢?且不说夜班人员根本无法每天都规律睡觉,就是别的工作人员也会有不尽相同的作息时间,只要找到适合自己的作息规律就好。

更为关键的是,人类这架精妙的“机器”其实早已进化出了一套完善的代谢、排泄及解毒的体系,根本无须刻意地去“排毒”, 正常情况下,人体的水平衡、酸碱平衡和离子平衡在神经、内分泌以及多种器官的参与下保持良好,只有在极端情况下才会出现紊乱和异常。这种调节是无时无刻不在进行的,只是休息时较轻微,运动时较剧烈而已,并不会选择特殊的时间或钟点来进行。换句话说,真正需要“排毒”的并非傻乎乎的人类,而是精明的商家,因为这个子虚乌有的概念,衍生出来一系列的服务措施与药物,而且价格不菲,难道我们居然退化到了连出汗拉屎撒尿都需要人协助的程度了么?假如这方面确实出现了问题,比如尿潴留,严重的便秘等等,这必须求助于专业的医院专业的医生,绝不是买什么排毒产品,接受什么排毒服务就能解决的问题。

如果说,仅仅是在“排毒”的问题上让无良商家赚到了几个小钱,我们也不过就是有些经济损失,问题是这些产品还可能造成让人追悔不及的恶果,新华网2004年8月30日《假、劣药致人伤亡案件频发 凸显用药安全危机》一文中提到,孔宪英女士吃了排毒养颜胶囊后,她的肚子就象煮开了锅,不断翻腾,连续上厕所不止,以为得了重病,当儿子回家以后,发现孔女士都快要脱水休克了,连忙将她送往医院急救,才救得一命。

你真的需要“排毒”么?也许是时候让这个每一个毛孔都弥散着混合铜臭与棺材板子气息的“排毒”一词见鬼去了。

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Wyckoff, Super Trader Karen

To short option premium you need price to stay away from your strike price. Price and volume is important to Karen. Karen doesnt mention the Wyckoff word, but anyone who watches price and volume for reversal action (accumulation or distribution patterns) will become a Wyckoff fan. Wyckoff patterns that would support her approach would be: Selling Climax, Buying Climax, Springs, Tests. 

When Karen says she as been tested (Flash Crash), could this success story be different. Maybe or maybe not that would depend on money management.

Karen could not pick direction, this blog suggest she quickly becomes a RTT Plus member to master stock market direction with RTT Market Timer. Our Hurst cycles would also help to pick the next zone for accumulation or distribution to short premium. Please review Wyckoff 2.0 theory. 

For example RTTTrendStatus (circle areas) great places to short premium

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. 
SPY
After a few strange emails.. more information.

When you write a put (short put option premium), you wish for the premium to be over valued. A premium is over values when the VIX is high and this is usually associated with price forming a bottom during a pullback. Therefore to get the best bang for your buck writing put options, you wish to pick bottoms in a up trend. 

RTT Plus cover RTT Market Timer. See if you can find the bottom picked by our mechanical timer. 

Timer




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net 

Investing Quote...

.."At long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits"..

Jesse Livermore Trading Rule


..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..

Benjamin Franklin
- See more at: http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=577_wyckoff-super-trader-karen-2012-06#sthash.AChmc9Vi.dpuf

Larry R. Williams

Williams is the author of eleven books, most on stocks and commodity trading. Other books include The Mount Sinai Myth, based on an archeological search for Mt. Sinai in Egypt. This book was featured in Vanity Fair in a re-write by Howard Blum.
In 2014, the Market Technicians Association (MTA) presented Larry Williams with the Achievement Award.
Williams funds a 6 figure scholarship at the University of Oregon in honor of his college professor, Max Wales, restricted to "journalism and communication students who... have demonstrated creative talent, but may not have a high grade point average."
Williams has created numerous market indicators including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, COT indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment and value measurements for commodity prices. Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (10,900%) in a 12-month competition with real money. Ten years later his Academy Award Nominee actress daughter Michelle won the same contest. He currently lives in the United States Virgin Islands, where he trades, writes and does market research.
His other indicators are the COT index and accumulation indicators and he was the originator of Volatility Breakouts.
Williams has created new proprietary indicators programmed exclusively into Vantage Point trading software. Williams joined forces with long-time friend— trader and software developer Louis B. Mendelsohn — to create a comprehensive new line-up of trading indicators, within the Vantage Point software.
Two of his more recently developed indicators include the Williams Professional Sentiment Index and Williams Electronic Market Accumulation Index. These are designed to reveal when the big money traders are actively buying or selling in a market. This action often marks the beginning of extended market trends. Williams collaborated with Mendelsohn to incorporate the early alert indexes with the neural network pattern recognition indicators that Vantage Point provides.
His psychiatrist son, Dr. Jason Williams, at Johns Hopkins, has written a book on the personality of winning traders, The Mental Edge in Trading.

John W Henry’s philosophy

If one theme summarizes Henry’s philosophy, it is the knowledge that one cannot predict anything.

Henry is a long-term follower. His philosophy is based on the premise that market prices, rather than market fundamentals, are the key aggregation of information needed to make investment decisions. 

He says, The markets are people’s expectations, and these expectations manifest themselves as price trends. 

We live in an uncertain world. One cannot predict the future of anything.

In an uncertain world, identifying and following trends may be the only reasonable investment approach over the long term. 

Henry feels that a mechanical approach has more value since no scientific approach or solid testing can be applied to discretionary trading.
Henry says that when he first researched the markets in the 1970s, he was looking for a methodology that would work through many market conditions. His research showed that long-term approaches work best over decades.

There is an overwhelming desire to act in the face of adverse market moves. Usually it is termed ‘avoiding volatility’ with the assumption that volatility is bad. However, I found avoiding volatility really inhibits the ability to stay with the long-term trend.
The desire to have close stops to preserve open trade equity has tremendous costs over decades.

Long-term systems do not avoid volatility, they patiently sit through it. This reduces the occurrence of being forced out of a position that is in the middle of a long-term major move.

Wisdom from John W. Henry:

I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors. Prices, not investors, predict the future. 

Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, or someone else can. A lot of them look to you to predict what the next macroeconomic cycle will be. 

We rely on the fact that other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that’s where our profits come from. 
I believe it’s that simple… when I was designing what turned out to be a trend following system…[that] approach–a mechanical and mathematical system–has not really changed at all. 
Yet the system continues to be successful today, even though there has been virtually no change to it over the last 18 years.

Super retail trader Karen

Super retail trader Karen turned $100k into $41 million in profits in 5 years. Listen to how she did it.

Points
- Keep it Simple
- Know the big picture
- Watch price and volume, very critical
- Bollinger bands (x2 Standard Deviations)
- Short option premium (selling calls and puts, very risky as has open loss)
- Trade of theta
- Less or no technicals studies
- Does not trade stocks, options only
- Due to such a large account options on only: NASDAQ 100, SP500, Russel 2000
- Non directional plays
- Trading and investing is like learning a craft a education, trading is very difficult
- Stocks are too difficult to pick for the retail investor, unknown news and fundamentals can sink you
- Therefore does not trade stocks (only Indexes), wishes to avoid the 'Earnings Season' risk
- Low drawdowns
- Has a single and simple strategy (one trick to beat the market) which is Wide Index Strangles
- Shorting premium (option writing)

四个老王回家,对待丰满妻子的不同方法…你会怎么做


1、老王辛苦了一年,年终奖拿了1万,左右一打听,办公室其他人年终奖却只有1千。老王按捺不住心中狂喜,偷偷用手机打电话给老婆:亲爱的,晚上别做饭了,年终奖发下来了,晚上咱们去你一直惦记着的那家西餐厅,好好庆祝一下!



2、老王辛苦了一年,年终奖拿了1万,左右一打听,办公室其他人年终奖也是1万,心头不免掠过一丝失望。快下班的时候,老王给老婆发了条短信:晚上别做饭了,年终奖发下来了,晚上咱们去家门口的那家川菜馆吃吧。

3、老王辛苦了一年,年终奖拿了1万,左右一打听,办公室其他人年终奖都拿了1.2万。老王心中郁闷,一整天都感觉像压着一块石头,闷闷不乐的。下班到家,见老婆正在做饭,嘟嘟囔囔地发了一通牢骚,老婆好说歹说劝了半天,老王才想开了些,哎,聊胜于无吧。把正在玩电脑的儿子叫过来,摸给他一百块:去,到门口川菜馆买两个菜回来,晚饭咱们加两个菜。

4、老王辛苦了一年,年终奖拿了1万,左右一打听,办公室其他人年终奖都拿了5万。老王一听,肺都要气炸了,立马冲到经理室,理论了半天,无果。老王强忍着怒气,在办公室憋了一整天。回到家,一声不吭地生闷气,瞥见儿子在玩电脑,突然大发雷霆:你个没出息的东西,马上要考试了,还不赶紧去看书,再让我看到你玩电脑,老子打烂你的屁股!

同样数目的年终奖,在不同的环境下却给人造成了截然不同的感受。
因为很多人的快乐,在很多时候,并不在于自己有多好,而在于比别人好多少。
很多的人痛苦,在很多时候,并不在于自己有多不幸,而在于比别人更加不幸。
这种无谓的快乐和不幸,不仅浪费了自己的精力与感情,也使自己变得卑微与渺小。


正所谓,世上本无事,庸人自扰之。
有没有痛苦,源于你是不是计较,。你快不快乐,在于你能不能宽容。
生活有多少计较,就有多少痛苦,计较越多,痛苦越多。买翡翠,加掌柜微信号:464003 计较,总是占据了心的许多位置,堵塞了气的正常出入。


人生有几分宽容,就有几分欢欣,宽容越多,快乐越多。宽容总是平息着愤怒的火焰,畅通着全身的血液,包容最好。

心若改变,你的态度跟著改变;
态度改变,你的习惯跟著改变;
习惯改变,你的性格跟著改变;
性格改变,你的人生跟著改变。


你开着奔驰宝马,肚子却顶着方向盘;
(累不累)

你挂着LV包,包里装着胰岛素降压药;
(苦不苦)

你拥有百万的豪华床,却天天失眠;

(气不气)


你蹲几十万的马桶,却拉不出来;

(难不难)


穿着阿玛尼出门,效果不如淘宝地摊货;

(冤不冤)


你虽有很多钱,却要跟医生去分享;

(恨不恨)


好好爱自己,我们才是世界上,最昂贵的产品!


1、三样东西一去不复返:
时间
生命
青春


2、三样东西毁掉一个人:
怒气
傲气
小气


3、三样东西永不放弃:
童真
理想
希望


4、三样东西最无价:
爱情
善良
友谊


5、三样东西最无常:
成功
财富
梦想


6、三样东西成就人:


天时
地利
人和


7、三样东西要珍惜:
父母
孩子
眼前人



8、三样东西做事情:
目标
方法
改善


9、三样东西交朋友:
诚信
奉献
无私


10、三样东西把握好:
机会
人生
婚姻



人因梦想而伟大!


也因学习而改变!


更因行动而成功!

Monday, November 17, 2014

Futures Options

A futures option, or option on futures, is an option contract in which the underlying is a single futures contract. The buyer of a futures option contract has the right (but not the obligation) to assume a particular futures position at a specified price (the strike price) any time before the option expires. The futures option seller must assume the opposite futures position when the buyer exercises this right.
If you are unfamiliar with futures, it is recommended that you learn more about trading futures contracts before continuing with the rest of this article.

Things To Note When Trading Futures Options

Expiration Dates

Futures options usually expire near the end of the month that precedes the delivery month of the underlying futures contract (i.e. March option expires in February) and very often, it is on a Friday.

Strike Price

This is the price at which the futures position will be opened in the trading accounts of both the buyer and the seller if the futures option is exercised.

Exercise & Assignment

When a futures option is exercised, a futures position is opened at the predetermined strike price in both the buyer and the seller's account. Depending on whether a call or a put is exercised, the option buyer and seller will assume either a long position or a short position.
Futures positions assumed upon option exercise
Buyer AssumesSeller Assumes
Call OptionLong Futures PositionShort Futures Position
Put OptionShort Futures PositionLong Futures Position

Futures Option Pricing

It is important to remember that the underlying of a futures options is the futures contract, not the commodity. Hence, the option price move along with the futures price and not the commodity price. Although the futures price tracks the commodity price closely, they are not the same. For highly leveraged products like options, the impact of such tiny differences can be greatly magnified.
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Boaz Weinstein

Strong Start

Weinstein, 40, started Saba in 2009 to trade on price discrepancies between loans, bonds and derivatives. He posted strong performance in the first two-and-a-half years, particularly in 2011, when he beat Bloomberg’s capital arbitrage credit hedge-fund index by about 8 percentage points with a return of 9.3 percent. Hedge funds industrywide fell about 5 percent in 2011 as the European debt crisis roiled markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Weinstein last year bet against JPMorgan trader Iksil, after he amassed a big position in a vintage derivative index. Iksil owned 50 percent of outstanding wagers in the contracts he was trading and eventually cost the bank $6.2 billion.

TOP 10 TRAITS OF SUCCESSFUL OPTION TRADERS


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Have you ever wondered what sets the best options traders apart from the amateurs? Why is it that certain traders can consistently outperform no matter what the market cycle? Below is a list of the Top 10 Traits Of Successful Option Traders.
They Are Properly Capitalized – A very common mistake for beginner traders is not being properly capitalized. Beginners see the power of leverage option trading offers and think they can turn $2,000 into $20,000 in a matter of weeks. Before they know it, a couple of losing trades have completely wiped out their capital. I must admit I was also guilty of this. I was living in Grand Cayman and had just started options trading. I think in my first 6 months I broke just about every trading rule possible. I had a couple of small positions in the Australian stock market, one a utilities company and the other a REIT (real estate investment trust). Both of these positions had a low beta, meaning that the stocks did not move as much as the general market. So, through lack of knowledge and understanding I thought I would sell some call options on the main ASX index to hedge and protect my long positions. I obviously didn’t understand my net exposure was now hugely short as the short calls easily outweighed my stock holdings. Sure enough the market rallied, I refused to admit my mistake and take my losses and hoped and prayed that the position would come back my way. Next thing you know my capital has been completely wiped out and I had to send money via Western Union and have my brother deposit the money in my account the next day. Not a great experience for me, but one that I certainly learnt from!
They Have A Low Tolerance For Risk – Another important aspect of successful options trading is having a low tolerance for risk. The best options traders will only trade when there is a low risk high reward scenario. They want to have the odds skewed in their favor as far as possible. The best option traders will not try to hit home runs with every trade.
They Trade Only When The Market Provides An Opportunity – One quality all great traders have is patience. Successful investors will only enter into trades when the odds are stacked in their favor. They would much rather be the house rather than the average guy on the street trying to win big. They are focused on the bigger picture and are willing to wait and have the patience to only trade when the right opportunity presents itself. Some of the best traders often talk about sitting idle and just watching the markets, waiting for the perfect time to make a trade. Amateur investors find it very hard to not trade and are captivated by all the red and green numbers on their screen and feel like they are missing out on the action. Can you think of times in your trading when you have experienced this? Are you able to sit on the sidelines and just watch the market without jumping in?
Knowing what cycle the market is in, is key to knowing when to trade and which trades to make. The best resource if have found for knowing what cycle the market is in is Investor’s Business Daily. Each day they publish a Big Picture article which states whether the market is in a confirmed uptrend, the uptrend is under pressure or if he market is in correction. I have found them to be incredibly insightful and you would do well to follow their advice. Their advice is to only buy strong stocks when the market is in a confirmed uptrend and this has been a time tested method for market outperformance. While it’s still possible to make money on the long side while the market is in correction, the odds are stacked against you and you would only want to be buying leading stocks such as those in the IBD 100.
They Have A Trading Plan – Before opening an account, everyone should have a trading plan. This shouldn’t just be something in your head either, you need to write it down! By writing it down, it is clearly defined and you can refer back to it at any time. It will also be more real if you write it down and you’ll be much more likely to stick to it. Like anything in life, in order to be successful you need to have a plan and think things through rather than just flying by the seat of your pants. When I first started trading I would just place random trades based on how I was feeling at the time. I’d put on a bull call spread, then I’d try shorting stocks I thought were over valued and then I’d be making volatility trades. Needless to say I was not very successful during this time. While some of my trades were winners it was like I was taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back. All the great traders have a clearly defined trading plan. This is crucial to your success as a beginner options trader.
They Have A Risk Management Plan – Only trade what you can afford, don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Trade defensively, rather than think of what you can make, every time you make a trade you should be thinking about the worst case scenario. What could you lose and how you are going to handle the position if things go badly? Beginner traders have trouble getting a handle on how much to risk on each trade. When starting out you do not want to have 90% of your capital tied up in one trade. One thing for beginner traders to consider is to split your trading capital in half, place half in an interest bearing account and use the rest to trade. This way, no matter what happens, you will never lose all of your capital. Another good risk management rule is to set a fixed percentage of you capital as your risk per trade. A common method would be to set 5% as the maximum capital to risk per trade, but for beginners you could even make that lower. Once a trade is placed you need to continue to monitor risk levels, you can’t just have a set and forget policy, you have to stay on top of your positions and your total portfolio risk. Having a risk management plan is crucial to success as a trader and something that should be done before you start trading. Everyone wants to make a great trade and make lots of money, but you should never take risk management too lightly. What risk management rules fo you have in your trading plan?
They Can Control Emotions – Options trading is an incredibly emotional journey and one that you cannot fully appreciate until you have your own hard earned money on the line. The best traders are able to control their emotions not just when times are bad, but probably even more importantly when times are good. In my experience, and I’m sure this is the same for most traders starting out, some of my biggest losses have come when my confidence has been high. The best traders can keep their ego out of the equation and are able to stay grounded even in the midst of tremendous winning streaks. Also, when one of their trades turns out to be a loser, they are able to admit they were wrong and close out the trade. Great traders never get attached to a trade or a particular stock. A bad trade could turn out to be ok, but sticking to your pre-defined trading rules is crucial. You can be 100% right on a particular trade, but you also need to have the right timing. If your timing is off and your trade breaks your stop-loss you should always stick to your trading rules and keep your emotions out of it.
They Are Incredibly Disciplined – Successful option trading takes a great deal of discipline. Beginner option traders may find it incredibly difficult to just sit and wait for a good opportunity to trade. Waiting for the right opportunities may mean you don’t trade for a while, but trading out of boredom or excitement is one of the worst things you can do.
Having a money management and a risk management plan is one thing, but in order to be a successful trader, you need to have the discipline to stick to it. You also need discipline to stick to the types of trades you are successful with and not start trading strategies that you are not an expert in.
They Are Focused – For beginner options traders it is very easy to get carried away and get excited by all the green P&L numbers on their account statement. Keeping a level head is essential. Staying focused can also be hard when there is so much news on the markets and so many experts, each with a different opinion. The most important thing is to stay focused on your goals, your trading strategy and your rules. Don’t try to copy someone else’s trades or go against your trading rules just because of something Jim Cramer said. Get to know yourself as a trader as well, I have had a few periods when I wasn’t focused and that led to some big losses. I now can recognize those periods and I know those are the times when I really need to refocus my energies and review my trading plan. If you find yourself losing focus, or getting too distracted and stressed with everything going on, it can be a wise move to close out all of your positions and take break for a while. Sometimes that is the best medicine and will allow you to come back with a clear head, more relaxed and more focused.
They Are Committed – Options trading takes a great deal of commitment. Any time you have your hard earned money at risk, you should be trying to get the most out of your investment strategies and controlling your risk. You need to be on top of your game all the time. Any time you stop paying attention to the market, you will get burned. Not only do you need to keep an eye on your trading performance, you need to be staying abreast of the current news, market cycles and investment outlook. Some of the great resources I use, that allow me to keep up to date on the markets and take up the least amount of my time include:
  • Alpha Trends – Brain Shannon from Alphatrends.net is a market guru and author of one of the top 10 trading books ever written – “Technical Analysis using Multiple Timeframes”. Brian does a free video analysis of the markets a couple of times a week. In the first 5-10 minutes he goes through the current state of the general stock market and the various market indices. Watching this video only takes a few minutes each week, but you will receive expert analysis on the market from a trader with 17 years experience. Later in the video Brian goes through examples of specific stocks of interest which can be a great source of trading ideas.
  • IBD – Investor’s Business Daily is the news service the market pros use. It only takes a minute each day to read their Big Picture article to see what cycle the market is in as well as how the some of the market leading stocks have been performing lately. IBD is listed as the 4th most visited site by Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report.
  • Fast Money Review – This is another great site, that only takes 1 minute to review each day. While a lot of the actually show is just hot air coming from the “market gurus”, the Fast Money Review site, gives a very quick overview of what was discussed on the show, by the simple method of placing a smiley face or a frowning face next to the stocks that were discussed and who was discussing them.
If you’re a beginner options trader and find you’re struggling with the commitment required to keep up to date with the market, or find you are suffering from information overload, try these 3 sites out. You will be able to get opinions from multiple experts and it will take you less than 10 minutes a day!
They Have Back Tested Their Strategy – Backtesting is a key part of developing your trading plan. This involves evaluating your trading strategy against the historical performance of the market to check the past performance. Of course past performance does not guarantee future performance, but it will at least give you an idea of how your strategy has performed in different time periods and market conditions. The average investor may not have the capabilities to run these calculations on their own but there are a number of software providers out there that will be able to perform backtesting. In addition, most brokers such as TD Ameritrade have backtesting software that is free to account holders. Backtesting allows you to evaluate the pros and cons of your strategy and also provides scope for improvement or tweaking of the strategy. However, a few things to consider are:
  • Make sure you are using an appropriate time period – If you are testing a long only strategy between 1995 and 2000, you are likely to get some very favorable results. The same strategy may not have performed so well between 2007 and 2009. It’s a good idea to test a strategy over a long time period.
  • Take into account sectors – If your trading strategy is solely focused on a particular sector, your backtest sample should be taken from that sector. However, in all other cases it is best to use a large sample size from all sectors.
  • Take into account commissions – commissions can seriously erode your returns, so you need to adjust for this expense, especially if your strategy involves frequent trading.
  • Past performance may not be a good guide to the future – While your chosen strategy may have worked in the past, there is no guarantee it will work in the future. A good idea is to paper trade for a month or two, just to make sure your strategy still works in the current environment.
- See more at: http://www.optionstradingiq.com/top-10-traits-of-successful-option-traders/#sthash.dxiAZz6h.dpuf