Wednesday, November 26, 2014

What To Do When Your Options Trade Goes Awry

Successful options trading is not about being correct most the time, but about being a good repair mechanic. When things go wrong, as they often do, you need the proper tools and techniques to get your strategy back on the profit track. Here we demonstrate some basic repair strategies aimed at increasing profit potential on a long call position that has experienced a quick unrealized loss.
Defense Is Just as Important as Offense
Repair strategies are an integral part of any trading plan. I always review a well thought-out set of "what-if" scenarios before putting any money at risk. Too often, though, beginner options traders give little thought to potential follow-up adjustments or possible repair strategies before establishing positions. Having a great strategy is important, but making a profit is highly correlated with how well losing trades are managed. "Play good defense" is my options-trading mantra.

Fixing a Long Call

Many traders will buy a simple call or put only to find that they were wrong about the expected movement of the underlying stock. An out-of-the-moneylong call position, for example, would experience immediate unrealized losses should the stock drop. What should the trader do in this situation?
Let's examine a simple long call example, which demonstrates a concept that you can apply also to a long put. Suppose it is currently the middle of February and we believe that IBM, which at 93.30, is poised to make a move aboveresistance (the upper green line in Figure 1) at about 95. We have good reason to jump in early with the purchase of a July 95 near-the-money call. With about 150 calendar days left until expiration, there is plenty of time for the move to occur.
OF-RepairStrategies1R.GIF
Figure 1 – IBM daily price chart showing medium support/resistance levels.
But suppose, not long after we enter the position, IBM gets a downgrade and drops suddenly, perhaps even below medium-term support at 91.60 (the lower green line in Figure 1) to about 89.34. The price of the July 95 call would now be worth about $1.25 (assuming some time-value decay), down from $3, rendering an unrealized loss of $175 per option. Figure 2 presents the profit/loss profile of this trade.
OF-RepairStrategies2R.GIF
Figure 2 – IBM July 95 long call profit/loss.
With so much time remaining until expiration, however, it's still possible that IBM may reach and surpass the strike price of 95 by Jul 16, but waiting could add additional losses and present additional opportunity costs, which result from our forgoing any other trade with profit potential during the same period.
Initial IBMPriceJuly 95 Call Purchase PriceLower IBM PriceLower July 95 Call PriceJuly 90 Call Price
93.30$3.0089.30$1.25$2.75
Table 1 – Options prices before and after IBM price change.
One way to address unrealized loss is to average down by purchasing more options, but this only increases risk should IBM keep falling or never return to the price of 95. Actually, the breakeven on the original July 95 call, which was purchased for $3, is 98. This means that the stock would have to rise by nearly 10% to get to the breakeven point. Averaging down by purchasing a second option with a lower strike price, such as the July 90 call, lowers the breakeven point, but adds considerable additional risk, especially since the price has broken below a key support level of 91.60 (indicated in Figure 1).
One simple method to lower the breakeven point and increase the probability of making a profit without increasing risk too much is to roll the position downinto a bull call spread. This is a strategy presented by options educator, Larry McMillan, in his book, "Options as a Strategic Investment", a must-have standard reference on options trading.


To implement this method we would place an order to sell two of the July 95 calls at the new price of $1.25, which amounts to going shortthe July 95 call option since we are long one option already (selling two when we are long one, leaves us short one). At the same time, we would buy a July 90 call, selling for about 2.90. Table 2 presents the price details:
TransactionsDebits/CreditsCumulative Net Debits/Credits
Buy July 95 call-$300-$300
Sell 2 July 95 calls+$250-$50
Buy 1 July 90 call-$275-$325
Table 2 – Transaction details of rolling down into a bull call spread
The net result of this adjustment into a bull call spread is that our total risk has increased only slightly, from $300 to $325 (not counting commissions). But our breakeven point has been lowered considerably from 98 to 93.25, a drop of 4.75%.
Suppose now that IBM manages to trade higher, back to the starting point of 93.30. Our bull call spread would now be just above breakeven, with a potential profit as high as 95, although limited to just $175 per option. We have, therefore, lowered our breakeven point without adding much additional risk, which makes good sense.

Alternative Repair Approach

Another repair attempt (which can perhaps be combined with the one above) is to roll down into a butterfly spread when IBM falls to 90. With this strategy we sell two July 90 calls, which would be going for about $4 each, and keep the July 95 long call, and then buy a July 85 call for about $7.30 (assuming a little bit of time-value decay in these numbers).
TransactionsDebits/CreditsCumulative Net Debits/Credits
Buy July 95 Call-$300-$300
Sell 2 July 90 Calls+$800+$500
Buy 1 July 85 Call-$730-$230
Table 3 – Transaction details for roll to a butterfly spread.
The total risk actually decreases on the downside since the total debits fall to $230, but there is some limited upside risk should IBM move back above 92.65 (breakeven). If IBM goes nowhere, however, the trade actually produces a nice profit, occurring between 87.30 and 92.65. The profit/loss table below presents our different scenarios for this repair strategy:
IBM Price At ExpirationProfit/Loss
85.00-$225
87.30Breakeven
90.00+$264
92.65Breakeven
95.00-$235
100.0-$235
Table 3 – Profit/loss details for butterfly spread repair strategy.
Meanwhile, maximum potential losses are $235 (upside) and $225 (downside). Maximum potential profit is at 90 with $264, and profit decreases marginally as you move toward the upper and lower breakeven points, as seen in Figure 3.
OF-RepairStrategies3R.GIF
Figure 3 – Butterfly Profit/Loss Profile
Combining the Repair Strategies
Since this is a butterfly spread, maximum profit by definition is at the strike of the two short calls (July 90 calls), but movement away from this point eventually leads to losses. Therefore, the best overall approach might be to mix our two repair strategies in a multi-lot repair approach. This combination can preserve the best odds of producing a profit from a potential loser: the bull call-spread repair has a profit from 93.25 up to 95. And, there are ways to adjust a butterfly spread given moves of the underlying (a topic that would require a separate article).
The Bottom Line
We've looked at two ways (which might best be combined) to adjust a long call position gone awry. The first involves rolling down into a bull call spread, which significantly lowers overhead breakeven while preserving reasonable profit potential (albeit this potential is limited, not unlimited as in the original position). The cost poses only a tiny increase in risk. The second approach is to roll into a butterfly spread by keeping our original July call, selling two at-the-money call options and buying an in-the-money call option. Whether used alone or in tandem, these repair strategies offer some flexibility in your trading plans.
There will always be losses in options trading, so each trade must be evaluated in light of changing market conditions, risk tolerance and desired objectives. That said, by properly managing the potential losers with smart repair strategies, you stand a better chance of winning at the options game in the long run.

Fix Broken Trades With The Repair Strategy



Investors who have suffered a substantial loss in a stock position have been limited to three options: "sell and take a loss", "hold and hope", or "double down". The "hold and hope" strategy requires that the stock return to your purchase price, which may take a long time if it happens at all.

The "double down" strategy requires that you throw good money after bad in hopes that the stock will perform well. Fortunately, there is a fourth strategy that can help you "repair" your stock by reducing your break-even point without taking any additional risk. This article will explore that strategy and how you can use it to recover from your losses.

Defining The Strategy
The repair strategy is built around an existing losing stock position and is constructed by purchasing one call option and selling two call options for every 100 shares of stock owned. Since the premium obtained from the sale of two call options is enough to cover the cost of the one call options, the result is a "free" option position that lets you break even on your investment much more quickly.

Here is the profit-loss diagram for the strategy:



Copyright © 2008 Investopedia.com


How To Use The Repair Strategy
Let's imagine that you bought 500 shares of XYZ at $90 not too long ago, and the stock has since dropped to $50.75 after a bad earnings announcement. You believe that the worst is over for the company and the stock could bounce back over the next year, but $90 seems like an unreasonable target. Consequently, your only interest is breaking even as quickly as possible instead of selling your position at a substantial loss. (For more strategies to get back on track, readWhat To Do When Your Trade Goes Awry.)

Constructing a repair strategy would involve taking the following positions:
Purchasing 5 of the 12-month $50 calls. This gives you the right to purchase an additional 500 shares at a cost of $50 per share.
Writing 10 of the 12-month $70 calls. This means that you could be obligated to sell 1,000 shares at $70 per share.

Now, you are able to break even at $70 per share instead of $90 per share. This is made possible since the value of the $50 calls is now +$20 compared to the -$20 loss on your XYZ stock position. As a result, your net position is now zero. Unfortunately, any move beyond $70 will require you to sell your shares. However, you will still be up the premium you collected from writing the calls and even on your losing stock position earlier than expected.

A Look At Potential Scenarios
So, what does this all mean? Let's take a look at some possible scenarios:
XYZ's stock stays at $50 per share or drops.
All options expire worthless and you get to keep the premium from the written call options.
XYZ's stock increases to $60 per share.
The $50 call option is now worth $10 while the two $70 calls expire worthless. Now, you have a spare $10 per share plus the collected premium. Your losses are now lower compared to a -$30 loss if you had not attempted the repair strategy at all.
XYZ's stock increases to $70 per share.
The $50 call option is now worth $20 while the two $70 calls will take your shares away at $70. Now, you have gained $20 per share on the call options, plus your shares are at $70 per share, which means you have broken even on the position. You no longer own shares in the company, but you can always repurchase shares at the current market price if you believe they are headed higher. Also, you get to keep the premium obtained from the options written previously.

Determining Strike Prices
One of the most important considerations when using the repair strategy is setting a strike price for the options. This price will determine whether the trade is "free" or not as well as influence your break-even point.


You can start by determining the magnitude of the unrealized loss on your stock position. A stock that was purchased at $40 and is now trading at $30 equates to a paper loss of $10 per share.

The option strategy is then typically constructed by purchasing the at-the-money calls (buying calls with a strike of $30 in the above example) and writing out-of-the-money calls with a strike price above the strike of the purchased calls by half of the stock's loss (writing $35 calls with a strike price of $5 above the $30 calls).

Start with the three-month options and move upwards as necessary to as high as one-year LEAPS. As general rule, the greater the loss accumulated on the stock, the more time will be required to repair it. (Keep reading about LEAPS in Using LEAPS In A Covered Call Write.)

Some stocks may not be possible to repair for "free" and may require a small debit payment in order to establish the position. Other stocks may not be possible to repair if the loss is very substantial - say, greater than 70%.

Getting Greedy
It may seem great to break even now, but many investors leave unsatisfied when the day comes. So, what about investors who go from greed to fear and back to greed? For example, what if the stock in our earlier example rose to $60 and now you want to keep the stock instead of being obligated to sell once it reaches $70?

Luckily, you can unwind the options position to your advantage in some cases. As long as the stock is trading below your original break-even (in our example, $90), it may be a good idea so long as the prospects of the stock remain strong.

It becomes an even better idea to unwind the position if the volatility in the stock has increased and you decide early in the trade to hold on to the stock. This is a situation in which your options will be priced much more attractively while you are still in a good position with the underlying stock price.

Problems arise, however, once you try to exit the position when the stock is trading at or above your break-even price: it will require you to fork over some cash, since the total value of the options will be negative. The big question becomes whether or not the investor wants to own the stock at these prices.

In our previous example, if the stock is trading at $120 per share, the value of the $50 call will be $70, while the value of the two short calls with strike prices of $70 will be -$100. Consequently, reestablishing a position in the company would cost the same as making an open-market purchase ($120) - that is, the $90 from the sale of the original stock plus an additional $30. Alternatively, the investor can simply close out the option for a $30 debit.

As a result, generally you should only consider unwinding the position if the price remains below your original break-even price and the prospects look good. Otherwise, it is probably easier to just re-establish a position in the stock at the market price.

Conclusions
The repair strategy is a great way to reduce your break-even point without taking on any additional risk by committing additional capital. In fact, the position can be established for "free" in many cases.

The strategy is best used with stocks that have experienced losses from 10% to 50%. Anything more may require an extended time period and low volatility before it can be repaired. The strategy is easiest to initiate in stocks that have high volatility, and the length of time required to complete the repair will depend on the size of the accrued loss on the stock. In most cases, it is best to hold this strategy until expiration, but there are some cases in which investors are better off exiting the position earlier on.

人活着 不一定要别人来认可

人生最大的自由之一就是:不再在乎别人对你的评价。
有时,你需要步出熙熙攘攘的人群,呼吸一番新鲜空气,并提醒自己:我是谁?我想成为什么样的人?最美妙的事情就是听从自己内心的呼唤,勇于挑战。不要再因担心别人的看法或者畏惧未知的事情,而被动接受安乐窝里的选择。只要你去做,一切都会安好!不要让那无关紧要的琐事,羁绊自己的思路,误以为自己的梦想太过虚幻——不是那么回事。
从今天开始,别再等待别人的认可。这里告诉你8个为什么!
1、人生在世,你只有这一次生命可以追逐自己的梦想。
去做自己喜欢的事情,即使失败,也胜于在自己讨厌的事情上取得成功。所以请把握机会,追逐自己心的梦想,屡败屡战,直到成功。勇于牺牲,勇于走出舒适的避风港,一次次搏击人生。满载勇气和激情,直视你的恐惧。坚守自己的梦想,并努力把它付诸现实。
2、别人的认可只是别人的观点。
不要让别人的想法决定你的人生。永远不要忘记自己是谁,不要放弃自己的梦想,因为没有人比你更清楚这些。呵护自己的内心的选择,风雨无阻的前行。不经你的允许,没有人可以轻视你。你是自己梦想和幸福的唯一主宰。
3、唯一值得在乎的是你自己的想法。
实际生活中,放弃别人眼中完美的自己,开始起航真正的自我,是一件相当艰难的事情,但也很是意义非凡的抉择。所以,让自己的爱好自由飞翔。因为,爱好决定梦想,梦想决定行动,行动最终将决定你的命运。
4、有些人永远不会认可你。
不要让别人否认的目光扰乱你内心的平静。这世上有两种人:一种人会消耗你的能量和创造力;另一种人会给你能量,支持你的创造,或者只是一个简单的微笑。拒绝第一种人。让自己快乐起来,去做自己想做的人。有人不喜欢,由他去吧。快乐是一种选择—你的选择!活着不是为了取悦他人。
5、每个人生命的旅程和前途是完全迥异的。
让你与众不同的一点就是:你是谁。不要为了任何人轻易改变自己的本质。未来永远是一个谜,不要害怕探索,求知,不要害怕成长。该来的总会来,只管迈开大步,勇敢前行。假如生活欺骗了你,站起来,要越挫越勇。当你面临需要抉择的岔路口时,做出让自己不会后悔的选择。
6、亲身体验通常是成长所必须的。
关于生活的经验只有通过你自己的实践之后,才能转化成你的智慧。所以,要去尝试并积累经验,而不是依赖别人的意见。这种亲身的体验,可以让你更加理智的思考,然后朝着正确的方向,更加成熟稳重的前进。
7、你的直觉无需别人认可。
当现实需要考验你内心的智慧时,一定要去尝试自己想要尝试的东西,去自己想去的地方,相信自己的直觉。不要接受错误的建议,不要让别人困扰你的想法。如果自我感觉良好,就去做吧,否则你永远也不会知道结局会有多么完美。乔布斯就讲过:“不要让别人的议论淹没你内心的声音,你的想法,和你的直觉。因为它们已经知道你的梦想,别的一切都是次要的。”
8、生命短暂,经不起等待。
假如你很确定自己得了不治之症,假如你已经感觉时间紧迫,那你真的没有时间可以浪费了!清醒吧,面对这样一个紧迫的现实,你没有时间可以等待——无人例外!环顾四周,看看人生的奇迹曾带给你怎样的礼物。选择快乐,别再等待别人的认可——否则你永远没有机会快乐!
为什么我们那么努力,却得不得自己想要的结果,是因为我们没有找到有用的方法,我们想在最短的时间内帮助更多的人,完成自己心目中的梦想,实现中国梦,我们将无偿提供千份内部学习光碟,数量有限。

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

經典投資書《漫步華爾街》 40年來不敗