格言

First question:

What are my benefits?

Plan for my future.

Larry Ellison: I try to think things through. I try to always ask two questions about my personal policies in life. Are they fair, are they morally correct? And do they work? I try to reason things back to first principles. I try to think about things, and come to conclusions and make my own decisions. If anyone has a logical criticism and can explain to me why what I'm doing is wrong, and they can convince me, I'll change. If they have good reasons, I'll just alter my behaviour. I love it when people point out when I'm wrong, and explain to me why I'm wrong. That's great. I don't want to be wrong. I would love to be right. If I am wrong, I love it when people stop me.

2008年投資格言：
一、揀股唔炒市，指數升降並唔重要。例如11月至今恒指回落15％，唔少科技股上升25-50％。

二、找尋增長股，即業績轉虧為盈或純利大幅上升股份，最好係營業額上升、邊際利潤擴闊（毛利率上升）股份。

三、唔好感情用事，對住倒瀉牛奶，喊係冇用，買入後如虧損15％立即止蝕，喊都無謂；買入後上升20％或以上便滋油淡定，等候日後收割，千萬不可賺唔切。

四、任何股價都唔會直線上升，一定係曲折線條，例如浪2回落係浪1升幅三分一到二分一，浪3再升；浪4回落浪3升幅三分一到二分一；浪5上升完畢後獲利回吐。跌市往往係A、B、C，即A浪下跌，B浪反彈A浪跌幅三分一到二分一，然後再跌，因此唔好浪A便入市，應浪C完成才入市。

五、展望明年股市肯定大幅波動，相信聯儲局仍會減息兩次或以上，明年年中利率極有可能見3.5厘。繼續避開同次按有關行業及國企、紅籌股，睇好內需股同科技股。

投資唔係跟大隊須獨立思考

投資唔係賺取10％或20％回報，而係找尋可以改變你一生項目；投資目的唔係保本，而係追求高增長，記住唔係低增長，而係高增長，例如每年30％升幅。投資唔係買昨天的藍籌股，而係買明日藍籌股。邊D先至係明日藍籌股？便考眼光。投資唔係跟大隊，而係獨立思考。2000年人人睇好科網股，今年10月人人推介國企、紅籌股，你又點睇？展望2008年大藍籌股純利增幅肯定放緩；反之，科技股純利又到上升期。

投資唔使大學教授水準，小學畢業已足夠（Keep it simple it）. 你聽過LA Gear嗎？八十年代股價曾上升819％。你聽過Conair嗎？九十年代亦曾上升1000％。香港好多二線股名字你可能未聽過，但卻可能勁升（亦有可能勁跌，如睇錯便蝕15％離場，唔傷荷包）。

請坐低飲杯茶、食個包，好好思考2008年應睇好乜？

新一年代表新趨勢浮現，亦代表舊趨勢可能結束。例如廣船及南方航空股價經爆炸性上升後，已唔再值得持有，一旦股價由高峰回落20％以上便止蝕離場。

追隨趨勢，尋找D純利進入高增長期股份，才係最佳投資策略。股市內悲劇係大部分投資者皆忽略趨勢，只睇走勢，往往賺粒糖、輸間廠。

2008年做個trend-rider及earning-seeker。祝各位聖誕節時pick the right stock。

唔好去人多地方，平安夜應平平安安地度過，一如股市，人多地方唔好去。


股市鐵律：少數人贏錢、大多數人輸錢


1 - Research clearly demonstrates that "when broad market indexes go above P/E ratios of 23 or so, investors essentially get no return over the next 10 years".

2 - An important study "showed that an inverted yield curve (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) is the single most reliable predictor of recessions. Recessions appear roughly a year after an inverted yield curve."

3 - The Investment Matrix Revelations :
"There are clear patterns of returns relating to the secular bull and secular bear cycles. (....) Once the new period starts, it tends to persist for long periods of time. Though the very long-term returns have been positive and near average, investment horizons of 10 years, 20 years, and even longer aren't long enough to ensure positive or acceptable returns. (...) the charts clearly show the most important thing you can do to positively affect your long-term returns is to begin investing in times of low P/E ratios".

4 - Technical analysis doesn't work :
"Mark Finn of Vantage Consulting has spent years analyzing trading systems. (...) He has a team of certifiable mathematical geniuses working for him. They have access to the best pattern recognition software available. They have run price data through every conceivable program and come away with this conclusion: Past performance is not indicative of future results."

5 - Investors behaving badly :
Gavin McQuill of the Financial Research Corporation (...) focused on six emotions that cause investors to make mistakes.

1. Fear of regret - an inability to accept you've made a wrong decision, which leads to holding onto losers too long or selling winners too soon.

2. Myopic loss aversion - a fear of losing money and the subsequent inability to withstand short-term events and maintain a long-term perspective.

3. Cognitive dissonance - the inability to change your opinion after new evidence contradicts your baseline assumption.

4. Overconfidence - people's tendency to overestimate their abilities relative to individuals possessing greater expertise.

5. Anchoring - people's tendency to give too much credence to their most recent experience and to show reluctance to adjust their current beliefs.

6. Representativeness - the tendency of people to see patterns within random events.

6 - Value Value Value
"Throughout this book, I show how value wins time and again. We have also seen numerous studies that show that buying deep value for the long term is a strategy that works in all types of markets. It is the only thing that works for stocks in a secular bear market cycle.
The essence of Bull's Eye Investing is quite simple. Target your investments to where the market is going, not to where it has been. Steady, stable, sure. Buying something that is undervalued, perhaps grossly undervalued, and waiting for the value to be seen by others is the way to real returns. Buying what everyone else is buying, after it has already risen in value, is why most investors simply do poorly."


Stay away from the crowd, and buy things at a big discount."Michael Price

Focus on my interests. Never affect by outside forces.

Every times, others call me, they want something’s from me, every times I call others, and I want something’s from them.

Every body has their ulterior motives.

Keep a humble exterior, keep a low profile always, keep clam all the times. Silent is golden only apply to when I don’t want others to know too much, when it is times to speak for my right, never hesitate to speak out.

This article was compiled by Yang Huiwen for the Straits Times yesterday. Even though I do not act much on analysts' advice and sometimes even prefer to take a contrarian approach, it is always worthwhile to take note of what these big fund houses are focusing on.

In one of the chapters in your book, you mentioned that none of the popular technical analysis tools have consistently outperformed the stock market over the years – and that the only proven methods to outperform the market have been buying values or trend-following. My own impression (although I have not done any exhaustive research) is that some methods out there do work, such as the Dow Theory, IBD’s CANSLIM method, and the intermediate buy or sell signals from Lowry’s reports. Have you seen any research on these methods and if so, do you regard them as a subgroup of trend-following systems?

What makes a technical trading system work is that it has risk-management. All technical trading systems will work if they have good risk management and if you have the discipline to sell your losers and let your winners ride. So if you manage to catch the trend, it works. There are people that can look at different signals in different markets and they can read it – and they are drawing inferences and it makes sense to them. But most people looking at the same data can’t do it.

So a lot of it is an art form?

Yes, if some technical trading system was proven to work and everybody realizes it, then the next day it would stop working.


While share price growth is set to slow down amid volatility, valuations are still attractive.

Next year, 2008, Singaporeans are getting their bonus and pay rise, BB are planning way to transfer the money to their pockets, it will spread good news to entice retail investors to buy shares, BB will target sectors that still have good selling stories, like marine, banking and construction. So expect STI to ramp up all the way till Chinese New Year, may be will break 3900-4100 points then it will drop back to 3400 in Feb and further down to 3000 by May 2008.

Don’t be suckers and buy shares and property at wrong times, when the BB know negative news and start selling to us. BB have advance news, unlike us, BB will try to unload their assets to us when they anticipate down trend is coming.

Keen to be Businessman, I can buy shares of listed companies, it is the same. Keen to be landlord, I can buy listed property firms. I can collect dividends like collect rentals, because owning a property must pay additional maintenance costs and high income tax as much as 25%.


其疾如風、其徐如林、侵掠如火、不動如山

Every trader should study his own psychology and priorities before he starts committing time and money into trading.



If you don’t take care of yourself, in this world nobody will.

Just focus on having a peaceful life, avoid all unnecessary hassle.

My previous friends and relatives were all close to me for certain benefits and freebies.

Just Focus on making more money from investment and take care of my health (meditation).

Must have the ability to spot danger sighs and able to read characters. Avoid the danger before making any commitment.

When I am poor and sick, nobody help me, must be able to take care of myself financially and physically.

Must devise an investment method that suits my personality.

Be more like a writer, don’t get involve, just observe and write down your thought. Analyze what I see and written down and then act accordingly.

Never be a follower, it is risky.

Silent is Golden. Never tell you investment methods, it should be kept as an absolute secret.

Be independent, never depend on others, learn from my own mistakes, I was too dependent on my mother, just like my mother now, thus become an ineffectual person, I must change.

Don’t give other too much respect; they just want to take advantages of you.

I was a fool previously, trusting other opinions.

This is a zero sum game world, either you win or other wins, always be preparing for battle.

Have independent minds; never trust other, like Rockerfeller said to his children.

The conspiracy theory of the world, the mass media and politicians are always giving the wrong messages and news to the mass majority.

Always be a spectator, watch the world around you carefully and observe their actions, learn from their mistakes and pick up their good strategy.

Stay away from the crowd, this will give you time to think calmly, just like Warren Buffett who still live in Omaha.



臺灣大王王永慶說過，做一件事，觀念非常重要，觀念正確，比較容易貫徹，事情就比較好辦；觀念錯誤，腦筋轉不過來，做什麼事情都是不行的。事實正是如此，致富是一種思維習慣, 你有富人的思維習慣，你就能夠成為富人，你沒有富人的思維習慣，你就只能是窮人。只有擁有致富的思維方式和行為習慣，你才可能真正致富。


順 勢 死 守 好 過 炒 出 炒 入
近 期 最 明 顯 的 轉 變 ， 是 美 元 轉 強 ， 這 一 點 令 自 己 相 當 不 舒 服 ， 甚 至 黃 金 長 倉 也 有 點 擔 心 ， 不 過 策 略 一 定 是 死 守 ， 頂 多 短 炒 跑 數 去 幫 補 。
美 元 的 強 勢 ， 應 是 市 場 在 平 淡 倉 ， 因 此 美 股 的 回 升 ， 同 樣 極 可 能 只 是 平 倉 盤 所 帶 動 ， 並 不 是 升 浪 的 開 始 。 港 股 形 勢 當 然 比 美 股 好 ， 可 是 本 地 地 產 股 及 銀 行 股 三 扒 兩 撥 勁 升 甚 多 ， 沒 有 理 由 冒 險 高 追 ， 中 資 股 氣 勢 只 一 般 ， 應 該 有 等 待 的 空 間 。
看 不 透 後 市 之 外 ， 時 近 年 尾 也 是 戰 意 下 降 的 主 因 ， 今 年 幾 上 幾 落 ， 連 場 大 戰 ， 身 心 都 相 當 勞 累 ， 而 且 在 賽 後 悟 出 一 個 道 理 ， 就 是 不 必 過 份 勤 力 ， 掌 握 一 些 大 趨 勢 ， 回 報 反 而 更 好 。 例 如 美 元 及 商 品 在 8 月 尾 後 根 本 是 單 邊 市 ， 只 不 過 順 勢 而 行 是 知 易 行 難 而 已 。 近 來 死 守 黃 金 好 倉 ， 便 是 一 個 策 略 上 的 調 節 。


1. Sub primes
2. Oil prices
3. credit crunches
4. Carry trade

我老曹1968年入行，當年並冇走勢分析學，因此最先學嘅係基礎分析，到1971年才學走勢分析，經常發現基本因素與走勢之間嘅矛盾，當年有一位惠嘉證券公司資深分析員（可能佢已忘記我老曹，就係今天獅球嘜花生油公司嘅老闆）。當年請教佢，佢講咗一句話影響我老曹一生。佢話，一旦兩者有矛盾，短期睇走勢長期睇基本分析，最終走勢必臣服於基本分析。就係呢句話，1973年1 月我老曹同林森池兄响人人睇好港股時夠膽睇淡，夠膽同當年老闆持相反意見。理由係雖然勢好，但基本因素卻淡。今年9月金價係勢淡，但基本因素好！近年响公開場合我老曹過分強調走勢，極少強調基本因素。近年分析員大部分都係學走勢分析出身而非學基本分析。結果人人都學曉花拳綉腿缺乏基礎分析做後盾，功夫唔得扎實（一膽、二力、三功夫；打交最先要膽大、力大，最後才講功夫）。


從經濟學角度上講，資產泡沫嘅形成係一種經濟失衡現象。從一般均衡穩定狀態，進入非平穩性向上偏移。呢種偏移現象漸漸演變成一種期望，由於預期價格繼續向上偏移而引發投機行為，吸引投機者加入，令價格出現更急速上升，價格攀升趨勢帶來更高嘅預期，更多買主加入，形成自我實現嘅正反饋過程。最後因過度投機而將價格推向極端，無法再兌現買家嘅預期後，往往出現急劇變化由升轉跌，令唔少投機者資金被套牢，就係泡沫爆破期。
　　
資產泡沫出現嘅客觀環境係通貨膨脹（流通貨幣急升）而引發資產價格上升，令均衡穩定狀態嘅價格遭受破壞，過多貨幣追逐供應不足嘅商品，如唔及時制止（例如將利率提升至CPI增長率之上2厘，令流通貨幣返回金融機制），便會引發理性預期──期望價格進一步上升，繼而吸引投機者加入，漸漸成為非理性預期，引發資產泡沫。一旦出現資產泡沫，便好難逃出Boom & Bust命運.


We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortunetellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."- Warren Buffett


Peregrine Falcon = Psychology Focus

Devise my own strategy = Hong Arts of War King = HAWK

Do not be influence my noises

Turtle Trader = mechanical trading method

Do not try to be something you cannot do

be realistic

nobody can predict the future, nobody know what will happen tomorrow- John Henry

focus on my strength

focus on option

don't predict future, don't gamble, only win, don't guess, go for sure win

1. soccer bet draw sure win
2.fundamentals investing sure win
3.mechanical trading sure win
4.trend following on option sure win

No Second Best

trade with my own strategy - the strategy should be simple and easy to execute.

Pound on mistakes of mass investors.

Pound on their weaknesses of fear and greed.

my enemy: mass investors.

think like a hedge Fund, my opponents are the mass investors.

I am the hedge fund, I am Soros.

become like puntfast.

use my very own indicators, simple and easy and not lagging indicators must be one step ahead of other.

Be a contrarian.

do the opposite of the mass investors.

must try very hard to understand the psychology of mass investors.

Think like a hedge funds and act like a hedge funds.

mix with mass investors to understand their pyschologloy.

hedge funds are up again the mass investors; Hedge funds try to mislead the mass investors.

Refelxvicity= market has mismatch info; mass investors make mistakes, be an opportunities and wait to pound on their mistakes.

If index cannot break resistance for 3 consecutive days, is bad sigh, sell. (consult Uncle Lim first.)
Reason: investors exhaust their funds, lacking funds to push up, and correction coming.

How to be 1 step ahead of the Masses?
use

1.MACD 8/17

2.Stochastic 15/3/3
3.RSI 12


How to buy/sell before the masses?

anticipate what BB will do?
use MACD & Guppy.

Invest using Buffett FA method.
How to earn daily expenses?

Don't use lagging indicators/methods.
search for future indicators.

BB methods:
1. accumulate slowly
2. entice Masses to buy
3. push up prices
4. Masses happy at the appreciation of prices - e.g. me, happy over a stock I bought Price shoot up, hold for longer period then lost again.
5. BB presses the price lower.
6. BB still supports the price
7. BB pushes up again
8. BB distributes

Signals:
1. Volume
2. price
3. STI


I am too kind and too mild.

I am too naive, think of using other people, actually had been used by people like Sang, Ho Chee Kong and Ken.

Too soft, let people take advantage.

I don't understand how this world works.
This is an unforgiving world, where strong and bad people win.

let people know you are a bastard and you are tough.

Be a tough and bad man.

Dream


Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream


Focus

What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor

How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard

Beliefs
Self-Hypothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich


Focus428000

ZenTurtleRaider


Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet

Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast

Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed


成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念

投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子

日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。

百富寓勤

Destiny

Trading is my destiny; I can kill the market sentiment, bully other traders, destroy other traders financially and be myself.

Markets

The markets including FX markets, options markets and stock market is a fierce battle field. No mercy, no pity, it is tough. But from outside, it looks peaceful and relaxes. Don't be fool by its exterior; it is bloody & uncompromising place.

Short Strategy

1. Trend trading



How to be a Warren Buffett

1. Confidence in one's analysis
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.



Long Strategy

1. Use E wave


Feelings

govt and people have different interests, don't always follow govt.

Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.

Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.



Daily Tasks

1. settle divorce
2. settle home loan


Self Management

Everyday I must do self-management.

Analyze:
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth


Betting Strategy

1. Soccer
-bet on one team for draw continually (choose 18 teams)

2. basketball

3.Football


Days Tasks

1. Watch less TV
2.Surf less Porn sites



Times

Times is short
lives life to the fullest

Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.

Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.

My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy

Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.


Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000

知彼知己，百戰不殆




Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.

My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert


二、唔理會宏觀經濟。例如1984年中英聯合聲明「草簽」中講明限制香港政府每年賣地五十公頃到1997年6月30日止。响呢段日子，本港地價、樓價大升，但好多人卻唔曉投資房地產；到1997年7月1日「八萬五」政策出台，更加多人唔識避。2003年9月「孫九招」面世，好多人仍然問後市樓價點睇？

2007年開始，美國有七千七百萬人按年進入六十五歲退休期，佔總人口25％，好多人仍然唔信美股响2007年見頂（一如1990年唔信日股見頂一樣）。　

三、泡沫形成初期散戶怕得要死，泡沫維持一段日子後，散戶卻忘記風險。大部分泡沫由形成到爆破通常歷時三年（例如1998年科網股，到2000年3月爆破）。

內地A股由2005年年中開始上升，2007年下半年亦踏入第三年，即係已進入令人擔心時刻。我老曹亦曾犯過呢D錯誤，例如响1973年1月恒指見1200點已睇淡，結果三個月內恒指升上1700點，即再升50％。1974年7月恒指見450點便睇好，但大市再跌多半年，1974年12月跌至 150點才改變方向。太早睇淡或太早睇好都係死罪，Timing is everything。　　

五、人云亦云，欠缺獨立思考能力，忘記20/80定律（社會上只有20％人口成功）。如果你嘅睇法獲得唔少朋友支持，請放棄。因為贏家永遠係少數。


例如2003年4月有幾多人睇好港股？

2003年9月有幾多人睇好本港房地產？

到2007年第四季有邊個睇淡港股同本港房地產？

經濟同政治唔同，政治係大多數嗰一邊贏，經濟卻相反。摩根士丹尼首席分析員羅奇（Stephen Roach）提出五個肥年之後，全球經濟將面對困難。佢認為，八十年代開始嘅經濟全球化已帶來不平衡，未來（2008年）隨着美國消費者消費力下降，各種有形無形貿易障礙將出現，令1980年起全球出口雙位數增長時代結束；


其中最受影響係亞洲區國家。中國GDP增長將由連續五年雙位數（2007年首九個月 11.5％）下降至未來五年8％，令依家過熱嘅中國經濟進入冷卻期。Victor Niederhoffer最近响《紐約時報》批評中國藝術品天價，令人想起1989年日本人用天價競投梵高嘅《向日葵》油畫及1979年原材料高價時澳洲財團奔達出高價購畫事件。今年中國藝術品以天價出售，係咪出貨訊號放完煙花之後就散場
　　
所有學習弧線（Curve）嘅Trader都知道乜嘢叫做拋物線上升及乜嘢叫做爆炸性上升（Blowup）。上述走勢出現理由係Trader利用大量槓桿去產生，一旦完成爆炸性上升，燦爛便歸於平淡（好似放完煙花之後散場一樣）。



次按危機可以因聯儲局減息一次（或兩次）而消失咩？科網股泡沫爆破後，亦唔係一次或兩次減息可以解決，更何況次按危機樓價可升可跌，主要睇人口增長率及經濟增長率而定。例如日本人口近年增長率接近零，GDP增長率似有若無，便撑唔住過去十七年日本樓價。香港面對 1997年7月亞洲金融風暴兼「八萬五」房屋政策，樓價亦撑唔住；2003年7月中央批准內地人來港自由行；加上2003年9月嘅「孫九招」，本港樓價又再欣欣向榮。美國2007年起進入退休高峰期；加上GDP增長率進入放緩期，美國樓價後市又點睇？　　成功嘅投資由你將雞蛋放响邊度決定。1997年7月係放喺海外；2001年係放喺黃金上；2003年下半年重返香港；呢兩年自然最好集中响國企、紅籌股，未來又如何？



在1929年某日，Old Kennedy（已故美國總統甘迺廸之父）眼見連街上的擦鞋小童也給他股票貼士及談論大市，Old Kennedy暗覺不妙，連擦鞋仔也講股市，於是即時沽貨離場，Old Kennedy因而得以避過1929年10月的美國大股災（The Crash of 1929）。

筆者察覺，過往不少顯示股市到頂的反向指標，近期仿似全部失靈，指標雖然顯示股市到頂，但大市偏偏唔跌！



據著名大炒家BartonBiggs的研究，近年不少投資者及大行皆會採用及研究很多反向指標或到頂指標，因此不少投資者都成為反向指標或到頂專家，最後令到這些指標失效（註：篇幅有限，大家不妨想想到頂或反向指標的真正含義）。

Biggs進一步指出，在巨型大牛市中，預測到頂的指標一般皆是過早發出訊號，有些時可能預早一年已發訊號叫離場，無形中令這些訊號失效！故此，在現今市況，大家雖然應留意一些到頂訊號，但不宜過早跳車，以防太早沽貨離場。炒股仔要識落車


4P
Perseverance
Turn Bad Luck Into Good
Lucky people employ various psychological techniques to cope with, and even thrive upon, the ill fortune that comes their way. For example, they spontaneously imagine how things could have been worse, they don't dwell on the ill fortune, and they take control of the situation.

Proactive
Maximize Chance Opportunities
Lucky people are skilled at creating, noticing, and acting upon chance opportunities. They do this in various ways, which include building and maintaining a strong network, adopting a relaxed attitude to life, and being open to new experiences.

Psychics
Listen to Your Lucky Hunches
Lucky people make effective decisions by listening to their intuition and gut feelings. They also take steps to actively boost their intuitive abilities -- for example, by meditating and clearing their mind of other thoughts.
Listen to your gut instincts - they are normally right

Positive
Expect Good Fortune
Lucky people are certain that the future will be bright. Over time, that expectation becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because it helps lucky people persist in the face of failure and positively shapes their interactions with other people.
Be open to new experiences and breaking your normal routine
Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well
Visualise yourself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call. Luck is very often a self-fulfilling prophecy

F Focus

Hawk Hong Art of War Knowledge



Dream

Dare to Dream

Dare to pursue my Dream

Focus on my Dream



Focus
Office
Wake up early – reach office by 8am
Talk Less

Investment strategies

My investing strategy:
1. Focus on only a few stocks
2. Identify a tipping point for each stock (e.g. building a MRT station next to its key property)
3. Buy slowly into any stock (as my timing is usually not good)
4. My investments are long term (This is money I can afford to leave under the pillow for years)
5. Low liquidity is OK (I am a collector and have no intentions of selling early)
6. Have an exit price for each stock (but be prepared to sell when prospects are not as rosy or when the entire market is on a bearish mega trend)

Selection criteria for fundamental stocks (in order of preference):
1. Potential to be a multi bagger (share price can double, triple, etc)
2. NTA is at a significant discount to current market price. NTA to me is cash and Singapore properties. This gives a good margin of safety.
3. Strong cash flow with conservative accounting.
4. It is in a growth industry and has good competitive advantage. The business is scalable. It is not a professional type business.
5. Its products can command a premium. It has a brand name or a unique product. It is not a commodity.
6. It has strong recurring income.
7. Credible management (e.g., no talking up stocks, false promises or creative accounting)

my tikam strategy:
1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.
2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%
3. Top active counters mainly
4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)
5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)



Fundamental stocks, multi baggers and a High margin of safety

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I believe that I cannot achieve financial independence by punting the market as the playing field is not level and the odds are against the investor who is usually at the bottom of the information hierarchy.

To succeed as an investor, one has to look at stocks on the longer-term horizon.... looking for multi baggers. However, in searching for these stocks, the investor knows that he will still always be near the bottom of the information food chain and hence, he needs to have an even higher margin of safety. After all, these are the stocks that he will be holding on to and unlike stocks in the tikam category, if the stocks were to go down, he may want to add to his holdings.

This is because, if he truly believes that these stocks are undervalued and the market pushes these stocks further, these stocks should become even more undervalued and the margin of safety will be even higher by buying these stocks at a much depressed price.

At this point, it is important to clearly differentiate tikam stocks from fundamental stocks. For all my tikam stocks, I have a cut loss position, which is usually around the 10-15% level. For my fundamental stocks, it is not uncommon for me to average down. Hence, it is critical for me to differentiate the tikam stocks from the fundamental stocks.

For fundamental stocks, to achieve this margin of safety, I only like to invest in stocks that have a significant discount to NTA. My definition of NTA is very simple. It is either cash or properties in Singapore. I discount everything else as I have seen so many ways of creative accounting that I have learnt never to simply trust the stated NTA figure. This means that I don't take the NTA numbers from the annual report as gospel truth. Instead, I tear these numbers down so that I know how much cash the company has, how much the company owes and where their properties are. I then make it a point to visit these properties in Singapore.

Of course, having a sound NTA is only part of the picture. More importantly, I must like the industry that they operate and believe that with the right spark, the business will flourish. This is the toughest part of the call as there is much less science here compared to the confirmation of NTA.

Yes, if the share price were to go south, I don't automatically buy more but I will take this as a wake up call to reassess the company. If after this reassessment, I still feel that the company fundamentals have not changed, I will then consider buying more. There are many reasons why investors sell these stocks, as I believe that no matter how big an investor is, there will always be demands to liquidate holdings to put into what may appear to be a better investment.

The market is the sum total of human emotions which interestingly is manic-depressive. When emotions are good, stock prices zoom like there is no tomorrow. When the feeling is bad, it can hit rock bottom and yet there will be no takers. This is the reality of our markets and to be a fundamental investor in Singapore, one has to be able to take the rough and tough of investing and watch one's fundamental stocks get beaten and bruised. One has to have lots of patience and guts as well during these depressive states.

I believe that our market is in depression with regards to Sesdaq stocks where most of my fundamental stocks are. Hence, I continue to collect these stocks. As always, I know that my timing is never good and hence, I have a habit of collecting stocks slowly and I always make sure that I have set aside enough ammo to keep collecting over a long period of time. As such, I am seldom fully vested in terms of fundamental stocks.



Fundamental investing is about multi baggers

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When I started investing over 20 years ago, I did not differentiate fundamental investing from speculating. Whenever I have a profit of 10 to 20%, I will take my profits and run. Sometimes the profit will come in days, sometimes years but whenever I see good profits, I feel good about myself and the cycle repeats itself. Yes, there were also times when I had losses. There were also some years where the losses were more than the profits. But this was investing to me.

As the years progressed, I realized that there was a flaw in the way I invested. In building businesses, we are all looking for scalability. We want to take the risk in the initial stages of building a business but when the business is more stable, we hope that it will then take care of itself and give us good returns year after year without having to take the risks we took in the initial stages of building the business.

This same philosophy should also apply for our investments. When we invest in the early days, we will take risks as the company is likely to be unknown or the management unproven. However, if we hit it right, we should be able to ride the waves with the business. We are looking for a Microsoft or a HP or a Dell. If we identified such a company, then it would be a shame if we simply took the first 20% profit and then ran out. If we ran out, we then have to find another company and start the whole investing cycle again. We start taking all the risks associated with investing in an unknown company.

Yes, it is more interesting digging out the multi baggers of the future, but it will not do your wallet much good if one goes from flower to flower only to taste the bud. True, your ego will be stroked every time you identify the next multi bagger but investing is not about ego. It is about building a nest egg.

Hence, over the years, my philosophy in fundamental investing is one where I will trust my instincts and be willing to sink a significant percentage of my investing capital into just one, two or at the most 3 stocks. After all, there is no point in getting a multi bagger if this is not going to significantly improve one's net worth.

Yes, there is significant risk in putting so much of one's capital in just 3 stocks. But because so much capital is tied in just 3 stocks, you will be very focused on these 3 stocks. If you are right in any one of these, your capital will grow substantially. If you spread it over 10 stocks, even if one stock becomes a 2 bagger, your capital would only have grown 20% assuming that there is no capital gain in the other 9 stocks. More than likely the other 9 stocks will show declines and you will end up with a me too portfolio gain.

It is also true that true fundamental investing is boring. If you are right about your 3 stocks, then you are unlikely to want to change these stocks for many years. The only reason I change any of these stocks will be because the fundamentals have changed or that the margin of safety in these stocks have reduced so much that I don't have the safety anymore. As stated, my margin of safety is that all these stocks must be trading at a significant discount off their NTA for which I only consider cash and Singapore properties.

If someone tells you that it is less risky investing in the fundamental stocks than to tikam or speculate, I don't think that person understands the true nature of fundamental investing. As stated, fundamental investing is for multi baggers. The only way you can get multi baggers is if you hold on to the stock for many years. I have seen a few of my stocks fall over 50% before they return me multi baggers. If you are not able to take this risk, I doubt that you will be able to see multi baggers.

If you tikam and have a policy of cutting losses below 10%, your risks are contained. Hence, my view is that it may be less risky to punt if you have a system in place, than to invest in fundamental stocks as the nature of the stock market is such that stock prices rarely stay put. They go up and down and when they are down, they can go very low down. Can you stomach this risk? Can you watch your stocks get beaten and do nothing or even buy more? If you can, you have the stomach for fundamental investing.





Fundamental investing in a nutshell is investing for multi baggers. It is boring and based on your believe that a company can become the next Microsoft. All other forms of investing to me are speculating, some with a shorter horizon, others a little longer.

I set aside money for fundamental investing and also money for speculating. The money for speculating keeps my adrenaline flowing but I know that I am not going to be financially independent just by speculating. Having speculating money also prevents me from interfering with my longer-term fundamental counters.

Yes, I too am human and this is my way of controlling my emotions of greed and fear over my fundamental investment strategy.



The stock market is nothing more than demand and supply

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We all have a tendency to try to find reasons why a stock goes up or down. Humans created technical analysis and fundamental analysis trying to plant reasons for share price movements. Newspapers & brokers write daily commentaries, which give the impression that they know more than us.

Reality though is that the movement of stocks and shares is based on simple demand and supply. The unique thing about stocks and shares is that the number of stocks in issue is defined and limited. In other words, supply is limited. However, demand for shares though, can be unlimited. This is in sharp contrast to futures where both supply and demand are theoretically unlimited. It is for this reason that I don't play futures, as the strategy for futures is unlikely to be the same for stocks and shares.

What this means is that if supply is sucked up for whatever reason, even though the demand remains the same, the share price is more likely to go up. The supply can be sucked up in a number of ways. If there is strategic investor that keeps mopping up the supply from the open market, the number of shares available will be reduced. If however, the strategic investor takes a placement of new shares (i.e. the company issues new shares), then this is unlikely to affect the number of shares floating around.

If the company buys back its own shares from the open market, the same phenomenon will also happen. The supply will be being sucked up and there will be less shares floating around.

This is why the game of stocks and shares is skewed towards players with big pockets. They can affect the supply more than any typical retail investor. Theoretically, there is no art or science here. Simply a matter of financial muscle to buy up enough shares to reduce the available float. Even the largest counter in SGX is small by US standards and hence, every counter will be under the mercy of the laws of demand and supply.

If we look at the market darling counters of the past, we will notice that these counters usually have a number of funds as shareholders. The funds mop up the number of shares available and this in return, perpetuates the market darling status of these stocks. As stated, once supply is sucked up, even if demand remains the same, the stock price will continue to rise.... even though as we have seen in recent examples, the companies concerned can lack real fundamentals.

If one reflects on the dotcom boom the same thing happened where not only funds were pushing up the share prices, but also listed companies that wanted a part of the action. They too put in their millions in the stock market. Humans then need to try to reason to them why these counters deserve such a premium. During the dotcom days, we were valued at multiples of expenses. This is the folly of our human mind...trying to create a reason for everything. In actual fact, stock prices go up for the simple reason of demand and supply.

This is why there is logic in following where the big money goes. If the big money leaves a stock, regardless of fundamentals or technical, I too will be a seller.

This is also the reason why I don't have a concern investing in a stock with limited float if the company fundamentals are strong. After all, in any stock that I invest, I hope that the share price will go up. If stocks move because of demand and supply, then having a limited supply is really not a bad thing. Of course, if one wants to speculate and exit within days or weeks, then stocks with low liquidity will not appeal to him, as he will find it difficult to exit.

However, if one is looking at a stock for fundamental reasons, there may be good reasons to buy stocks with limited float.



When my stocks go down...

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If it is a tikam stock, I usually cut loss when it drops 10-15%. No ifs, no buts. This is trading. No emotions needed. It was a wrong call and it is time to lick the wound.

If it is a fundamental stock that I am slowly collecting and it is now moving southwards, I usually reassess the entire investment to see if there have been changes in the industry or upcoming events that will change my mind on the stock. Usually, this will not be the case as I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Anyway, at any one time, I am likely to have just 5 fundamental stocks. These usually make up over 80% of my capital. Hence, I look after these stocks like a hawk because one bad mistake can hurt very badly.

When one of my fundamental stocks go down, I am more than likely to average down on this. Yes, I don't average down on tikam stocks and hence, it is very important to me to differentiate one from the other. Recently, I went against my principles and converted a tikam stock into a fundamental stock and averaged down and I bore the consequences of this.

As I know that unloved stocks are usually the fundamental stocks that I like to pick, it is more than likely that the shares will move lower down from my initial purchase. This is why I always buy any fundamental stock very slowly so that I always have backup ammo when needed.

As stated in my earlier posting, I feel that it is much more riskily investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. When one tikams and have set a cut loss position, the most one can lose is the 10-15% cut loss position. With fundamental stocks, if one picks wrongly and average down, it can be a very costly lesson. Hence, I keep a close eye on all my fundamental stocks. Take care.



Liquidity and the stock market

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Alchemist, you are absolutely right that I am not bothered about liquidity for my fundamental stocks. In the past, I was. I was influenced by all the literature that I read about the importance of liquidity. ‘Professionals’ write most of these.

What shook my system was when I read about Warren Buffett and he mentioned something like he did not care if the stock market did not open for years. Why would one bother about the ups and downs of the market if one sees fundamental value in a stock?

I also believe that the markets are about demand and supply. If a share is thinly traded and there is not much liquidity around, if one keeps buying and buying a stock, there will eventually be less and less available stock. Even if the rest of the demand remains the same, the share price is likely to go up.

This happens all the time in our markets. When a big name buys into a company, watch the share price. Even more powerful is when he buys from the open market. He basically sucks up available supply.

I don't have that firepower and hence, I do the next best thing. Buy into fundamentally sound companies with not that much liquidity.

I agree that liquidity is important if you want to get out fast. But I have no intention of getting out fast. If I am right in my judgment and the stock does well, other investors will climb in later and will create the liquidity to allow me to liquidate my positions.

The other way of looking at liquidity is to ask yourself what you want in a share price. Well, I am very clear. I want the share price to go up. If a share is very liquid, does it mean that it has a higher chance of going up? No. In fact, if there is heavy trading, there is more likely to be big boys around pushing it one way or the other...depending on their mood. I rather have a stock, which trades in a blue moon, but once it is recognized as an unpolished gem, it shoots to the moon within a few days or months.

In the meantime, I can sleep like a log.



Margin of safety

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I have been reading the works of Benjamin Graham for well over 10 years and it is only recently that I started to understand the true wisdom of his words.

Many stocks have multi bagger potential but only a few have a high margin of safety. Like it or not, most stocks have potential. But with potential comes risk. What Graham instituted is that the stock market is of ups and downs and sometimes stocks are undervalued and sometimes overvalued.

When a stock is undervalued especially when assets support it, it would offer a higher margin of safety. Here is where most investors will bend the truth, as the key is what constitutes a high margin of safety.

I have seen some folks do discounted cash flow projections as if this were a science but really, most CEOs I know tell me that business is so fluid nowadays that no one can forecast more than a year in advance. For investors to try to forecast 10 years in advance, they must know a lot that even the CEOs don't. It may be possible to do DCFs 10 or 20 years ago, as businesses then were more stable. But today's real business world is very dynamic and I cannot understand how DCFs can be used to justify whether a company is undervalued or not.

Then, there are some who confuses margin of safety with potential. If a stock can go up 10 times, then the logic is that it is undervalued. I don't think this is the context in which Graham instituted his margin of safety.

Margin of safety to me is the existing asset backing of the company. Those who know me know that I drill deeper into the assets by only considering cash and Singapore properties as true assets. Reason for this margin of safety is a higher degree of comfort in the event the shares fall further.

When this happens, I usually reassess the existing business to gain confidence that the actual business is not loss making to an extend that the assets are being eaten into. Yes, there are some turnaround situations in which I have invested but these require an even higher margin of safety than the usual fundamental shares that I pick up.

As the Sesdaq has gone south for many years, there are bargains lying around. As such, I have been picking up stocks in which the cash and property components are more than the market capitalization of the company. In other words, the existing profitable businesses all come for free. There are jewels lying around in our markets. Just that these are unpolished and need time to shine.

Patience is a virtue in investing.



Riding your fundamental stocks

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When one's fundamental stocks are running, there is a tendency to take profits and run. My belief however, is that one should look at fundamental stocks different from his tikam stocks. For tikam stocks, if it goes up 20% or so, I would certainly have said thank you.

However, if one picks the right fundamental stocks that have the ability to become multi baggers, then one should not be in any hurry to liquidate the investment. Every stock has a fair value. I will only sell once it is near the fair value.

After all, the stock market is a manic-depressive individual. When it is down, it is really down. When it is up, it goes manic and usually overshoots its fair value.

Moreover, when one sells his stocks that are performing, he has then to search for another stock. Why switch over when your horse is running when you have taken so much time selecting your horse in the first place. With tikam stocks, you may not have spent much time in the selection and hence, it is fair to take a profits too early.

Of course, at the end of the day, your stocks may just be riding a short term trading trend in the market. Here, one has to make a judgment call as to whether it is just a short term trend or that the industry that the businesses is in, is really coming out of the doldrums.

One of the reasons I put most of my money in fundamental stocks is because I know that information dissemination in whatever markets, will never be fair. As George Orwell once said, we are all equal just that, some are more equal than others.

Those in the know can ride the waves. Those not in the know are best identifying fundamental stocks and investing in these rather than identifying the waves as there is a high chance of riding the waves wrongly given that those who create the waves do this for a living and they are clever enough to create waves that look positive only to be distributing to you.

For fundamental investors, we don't need to identify the waves. However, we can ride the waves created by those in the know. Then, it is a matter of knowing when best to get out when the waves get too large...



Accumulation and volume

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If you were running a large fund and wanted to collect a lot of stocks, it is likely that you want to collect slowly and not be noticed. However, sometimes your actions may be noticed and others start buying into the shares, forcing the share price up sharply.

When this happens and you are not in any hurry as you want to get the lowest price possible for your stocks, you are likely to withdraw from buying any more stocks. The volume then dwindles and those who want to ride with you suddenly realize that there is no one else buying and the share price comes under pressure. The share price either goes down or it goes sideways with a dwindling volume.

Those who are there for the ride may get concerned and with each passing day, they get more nervous. These folks are likely to be among the first to sell their shares as they don't want to see their profits turning into losses if the share prices go down further.

When the selling pressure subsides and the price is holding well, the fund may start collecting again and this is then seen as the next wave of buying. The process of share consolidation after a strong run on the shares is a natural human reaction and I don't read too much more into this.

However, if there were heavy selling resulting in heavy volume with the shares drifting downwards, I too will be more concerned. Saying that, after trading in shares for a while, one must be able to have the gut feel to differentiate real volume versus created volume.

In Singapore, brokers and remisiers may not need to pay commissions and hence, theoretically, if they buy 10 mil shares and then sell 10 mil shares, they may pay nothing for these actions. Hence, one should read volume carefully and not assume that the volume you see is always real. Sensing whether the volume is real or not is part of the art of the trading.



Knowing the CEO

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When I was much younger, I always assumed that investors who know the CEOs of the listed companies in which they invest, have an upper hand. After 5 years running SI and knowing many CEOs in the process, I realize that knowing the CEOs is not critical in any investment decision.

All the CEOs I know tell me that their companies are undervalued and how exciting their industries are. If one thinks about it, it is the CEOs job to 'sell' the company to investors. Hence, CEOs are selling their companies every day and I am no different when I market SI features!

If you want confirmation that you have invested in the right company, talking with the CEO of the company is bound to make you feel very good about your investment...

But if we are truly fundamental investors, we should get as objective a view as possible and it may be better for us to talk with the competitors, with the suppliers and anyone connected to the industry in which the company operates. We would certainly get more objective feedback.

I find it more useful to analyze the way the CEO answers Q&A questions. Also, I read every sentence of the Chairman or CEO's statement in the annual report very carefully. Again, the way the sentence is constructed and the use of words may give a good indication as to real message that they want to convey. Web casting is another useful tool as it shows the facial expressions of the CEOs when they talk on the subject and one can sometimes read more from the way they present than from the information that is put across during the web cast. After all, CEOs cannot say anymore than what had been previously reported in the SGXNet announcements.

Sometimes, non-verbal communications give more information than what is articulated directly in words.



Margin of safety and a falling market

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If one invests in stocks when they are near their highs, with a market downturn like what happened yesterday, it can be very nerve wrecking. Hence, my policy has always been to collect stocks when they are unloved. This will provide a wide margin of safety. Rarely do I average up my fundamental stocks as I would have collected enough over the past few months when they are unloved.

However, if the price falls below my average buying price, I am more likely to average down. This is why I always feel that fundamental investors have to take more risk than punters as punters never average down - they sell and make a trading loss and move on. For fundamental investors, if we believe in our selection of fundamental stocks, we are likely to see more value in the stocks when they go down further.

The market is always manic-depressive - it goes through a cycle of over pessimism and over optimism. Herd mentality dictates that it will over exaggerate the ups and downs so that when the market drops, nerves are unsettled and the selling becomes far overdone. Then optimism reappears and the buying becomes overdone.

Fundamental investors should not over react to the manic depressive characteristics of the market. If we still feel bullish about our economy, we should stick to our believe in the stocks that we have selected. However, if we think that the bear is around the corner, we should relook at all our investments. I, for one, am very bullish for the Singapore economy.

Those who know me know that there is another side to me, which is the tikam side. Yes, I have been buying some call warrants yesterday. If the market rises, I am most likely to say thank you and move on. If it falls, I will lick my wounds and move on. This is tikam, which needs an entirely different mindset from fundamental investors.



Are you a fundamental investor or a short-term trader?

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As I spend more time in the markets, I realize that there is a stunning difference between being a fundamental investor as compared to a short-term trader. The only similarity they have is that both want to make money. But in terms of the characteristics of a successful fundamental investor, it is almost the opposite of a short-term trader.

A short-term trader is by nature, impulsive, excitable and adrenaline seeking. He practices cut loss, profit taking and is glued to the trading screens looking for trading & arbitrage opportunities. He feels the energy and sentiments of the market and use this gut feel to trade the market.

A fundamental investor on the other hand is usually a calm, calculated & patient person. He practices averaging down if his stocks go down in price. If it goes up, he will willingly hang on until he feels that the share has been correctly priced. He is not glued to the screen and is happy just to look at the share price at the end of every week.

Both fundamental investor and short-term traders take risk. The short-term trader actually takes less risk than the fundamental investor as the short-term trader practices cut loss if the share price moves downwards. This strategy ensures that he preserves a significant part of his capital even if he makes a wrong move. For the fundamental investor, he is more likely to average down and if the share price keeps going down, his capital can diminish quite quickly.

Before one starts investing in the stock market, it is important to know whether one is a fundamental investor or a short-term trader. Both groups need different skill sets to succeed. Time to monitor stocks is also an important consideration as it is unlikely that one can be a successful trader if one is not full time in the stock market. However, one can be a successful fundamental investor even if one holds on to a full time job.

The key attributes of a fundamental investor is that he must identify the right stocks as he really does not have that much protection when the stocks go down given that he is more likely to average down than to sell his stocks. As such, it is wise for fundamental investors to select stocks that have wide margins of safety, in case something goes wrong with their stock selection. The concept of margin of safety is discussed



Putting all my eggs in only a few baskets

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For my long-term investments, I only have about 5 stocks. For one of these stocks, it currently represents over 50% of my portfolio value.

My rationale is simple. If I diversify too much, even if a stock rises 100%, it may not increase the worth of my portfolio significantly. Of course, it is nice to feel that you have a one bagger. But what good is this if you only feel good and your portfolio worth only increases marginally. My aim in investing is to multiply my net worth and not to feel good. If I wanted to feel good, I will drink my Gin & Tonic. Good thing about investing is that one has only one mission, which is simply to make your money grow as fast you can.

For the stock that represents over 50% of my portfolio value, you can bet that I watch it like a hawk. I look out for announcements on the company and try to understand as much as I can about the industries in which it operates. Good thing about having a few stocks is that you can focus.

As human beings, by nature, we are all risk adverse and when we invest, the natural tendency is to spread our risk all over the place. Sadly, many so-called professionals recommend this spreading of risk approach to their clients.

But to me, if I want to invest properly in the stock market, I must be willing to take risks. I reduce my risk by understanding the companies that I invest in thoroughly. I understand their industries and keep myself updated on what is happening worldwide. I do not reduce my risk by spreading my investments as thin as I would spread butter on a toast.

Another analogy is that of your spouse. You have only one spouse. It was a tough decision when you signed on the dotted line. You are now fully committed and will take care of your only family. In stocks, we are in a way, allowed to be polygamous and we all know the problems of this. We should be happy already that we can have more than one stock!... Five is already a handful.....any more is a crowd that is really impossible to handle!



Riding the mega trends

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To be able to identify whether it is a bull or bear market is critical to any investor. To me, it is not so important trying to predict whether it is bullish today or not. So long as the general mega trend is bullish, I am comfortable investing.

To identify a mega trend, one has to keep a constant tab on what is happening locally as well as in the world, especially in the US, for us here in Singapore. When there is a correction, which I did not prepare for, I am more than willing to continue riding my stocks if the general trend of the market is still bullish.

In a bear market, I have a tendency of just keeping cash in the bank and playing the put warrants. This keeps my mind active and yet keeps my ammo ready when I smell an upturn in the mega trend.

Right now, I am almost fully invested as I feel that the bull has some more room to run. But as soon as I feel that the mega trend has turned negative, I will make no hesitation to liquidate most of my holdings, including my fundamental stocks.

Even as fundamental investors, we must realize that it is fruitless fighting against a mega trend. At best, the share price of our fundamental stock will remain stagnant. At worse, it can drop significantly in value. Hence, it is logical in a bear market not to be holding on even to fundamentally sound stocks given the risk, reward ratio.

The call as to whether we are in a bear or bull market is equally as important to a fundamental investor as to a speculator.



Worry is good, but not excessive

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Investing is risky. Don't let anyone fool you otherwise. With risk comes worry. If you are not worrying about your investments, it is likely that you are not investing enough of your capital. If you are not investing enough, whether your investments go up or down, really makes very little difference to your net worth. Yes, it will boost your ego when you have a stock that goes up 100% but as stated, investing is not about ego or feeling good, it is about multiplying your net worth.

In the past, I believed that one should only invest what one is willing to lose. But honestly, which one of us is willing to lose any part of our money? None of us should have any money, which we are willing to lose....,otherwise, give the money to me! We invest to win and we should invest sufficiently to make a difference to our net worth. Otherwise, investing is more like a game rather than a commitment. If one is committed enough, you can bet that he will spend sufficient time with his investments.

Of course, if one is just starting out, better to test water first and investing in our younger years is more like an education. However, as we age gracefully, investing should be something we take very seriously and passionately to prepare us for the future when we will no longer be so employable.

When I am too heavy in a stock position that it starts to affect my sleep, then I feel that I have gone over the limit and the degree of worry is too excessive. Humans should not be deprived of sleep as this will eventually affect our mental well being, which in turn may affect our alertness and we can eventually make mistakes in our investments. As such, when I lose sleep over an investment, I know that I am better liquidating my position regardless of whether the trade is profitable or not.

Everyone has his limits and we should know our own limits. For me, when I start losing sleep, I have reached my threshold and will act accordingly.



Use margin wisely

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When I formed SI 4 years ago, I did not know much about margin and the general consensus then and even today, is that margin is harmful.

However, when I meet up with other business leaders, I realized that many of these folks built up their businesses on margin or borrowed financing. They tell me that margin is a business tool that one needs to overcome & control. It is neither bad nor good. It is how we use margin that is more important. Margin used correctly can accelerate the growth of any company or for that matter, an investment portfolio.

Rather than ignoring the use of margin, I opened up a margin account 8 months ago to 'try' it out. Since then, I have learnt quite a bit more about margin and in the process, I also learnt a bit more about myself.

I learnt that some stocks are non-marginable stocks, i.e. one cannot purchase these stocks using his margin account. Initially I thought that this is a good list of stocks not to buy, given that the brokers must have done their homework.

Later I found out that brokers minimize their risks by having this list of non-marginable stocks. This list of stocks represent stocks that a lot of their margin clients have purchased and brokers do not want to have any more exposure to these stocks than they currently have. This list usually does not include stocks with poor liquidity as brokers do not want the issue of not being able to sell these stocks in the event they need to do so.

The list of non-marginable stocks can vary from broker to broker. Brokers just want to minimize their exposure to these stocks in the event these stocks drop in value. Hence, they do not want too much of their margin capital tied to these stocks.

The other thing I learnt about margin is that not all stocks are valued equally. Brokers have another checklist, which tells them the percentage of the stock price that they will recognize for each and every stock in their margin account. As I play warrants and some of these expire within a year, well, to this broker, such warrants have no value in the margin account...meaning that though I have bought these using the margin account, as far as the broker is concerned, the value of these warrants is zero.

This means that the available margin is reduced as the valuation of the stocks in my margin account is lower. This also means that the likelihood of a margin call is higher as on paper, my margin account is worth less than its actual market value.

When I was playing Star Cruises during the SARS period, I recall that the broker only recognizes 70% of its market value. Which basically means that the margin extended to me will be much less than what I expected.

With the first 2 trades, I lost money and before I knew it, I had a margin call warning. Hence, it is important when you use margin to have sufficient funds set aside in case of margin calls. Fortunately, for me the share price went up and no margin call was made.

Since then, the market has edged upwards and I have multiplied my initial investment through the use of margin. From these months of experience using margin, I can safely say that you need to be an even more disciplined investor if you want to use margin effectively. Margin can evaporate your portfolio if you are not careful.

My 2 basic principles in using margin are:

1. Try not to use more than 50% of the margin extended to you. This way, the likelihood of a margin call is substantially reduced. When you use margin to the fullest and the market goes against you, as it always has a tendency to do, you are likely to receive a margin call and may have to liquidate your positions at 'bargain' prices.

2. Margin accounts are more suitable for tikam stocks than for fundamental stocks. For fundamental stocks, you are more likely to average down and this increases the likelihood for margin calls if the stock goes down further. For tikam stocks, you should have a cut loss strategy and this reduces your risk of margin calls.

Margin is a double-edged sword. Use it well and you can be doubly rewarded. Use it incorrectly, and your capital may perish.



Attributes of a successful investor

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I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:

1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.

To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it.

The experience of running a business to me can only be gained by running one's own business. Some time back, I was running a regional division for IBM and I thought that I had acquired all the skills for running a business when I left IBM. I was dead wrong. Running a division within an MNC does not give one the full picture of what it takes to run a private enterprise.

Believe me that one has another 90% to learn when one gets out into the 'real world'. Without being out in the 'real business world', one may not truly understand what it takes to run a successful private business. Without this understanding, one may not be able to identify issues that a business may face in the future.

Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.

2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. Reading the notes in an annual report can sometimes give one a better picture than the headlines.

3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares.

4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.

You may find it odd that I say nothing about the ability to identify and rate management integrity. This is because I find all CEOs such good salesmen and saleswoman that I really cannot tell the difference just by talking with them. In fact, the better I know the CEO, the more likely that I will be taken in by their personalities and charm.



Fundamental investing vs. trading

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During the Nov seminar, I spent some time talking about this and want to share it here as well. To me fundamental investing is really about getting the multibaggers - stocks that will multiply many folds in value. Trading on the other hand is about 10-20% gainers and then saying thank you.

Actually, the short-term risk of a fundamental investor is a lot higher as a fundamental investor should be one that is more likely to average down than to cut loss if his share price declines. A trader on the other hand is likely to practice a cut loss position when his shares drop 5 -10% in value. With a cut loss strategy, a trader limits his exposure and keeps the bulk of his ammo available for the next trade.

A fundamental investor will keep researching and researching and this can be boring. But this is the basis of fundamental investing - patience with researching and researching. A trader usually relies on technical analysis, trading tools or simply gut feel.

The gain for a fundamental investor is usually painfully slow but steady. A trader can come in and out of positions within minutes. His life is fast, exciting but erratic as he often loses as well as gains. A good trader is one who losses less but gains more.

A fundamental investor usually keeps his stocks for years. A trader on the other hand is more likely to close his position within seconds, minutes or intraday.

Both fundamental investor and trader need to monitor their positions. However, the fundamental investor is more likely to monitor end of day prices but a trader is one that has to be glued to his monitor.

For folks like me, on some days, I am a trader. On others, I am a fundamental investor. But one thing has to be clear. When I am trading, I don't intend to keep the stock for long. It is paramount to me to be able to know which stock is for trading and which stock is for fundamental investing.

Moving a trading stock to become a fundamental stock because it has lost its value, is asking for trouble. Hence, before one trades or invests, one has to be very clear what the objective is, as the strategies for trading may be very different from those of investing. Good night.



Valuation of stocks

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Surprisingly, for something so important as stock valuation, there can be so many different models. Sadly, many times, I see the application of the various forms of valuation as a means to justify a share price.

The most common form is of course that of price earnings or PE ratio. However, as earnings are really an accounting figure, one cannot just take this as gospel truth. One should always break down what constitutes profits as there are many ways to generate profits. True repeatable profits are usually operational profits.

Then there is valuation based on assets and again, one has to break down the assets as here again, there are so many definitions of assets - some real, some not so real!

Valuation based on future earnings is getting nearer to the grey side. Then there is valuation based on what similar companies are valued, is getting nearer the arts as this assumes that the comparable company is similar to that company - which really is quite rare as companies are usually more different than similar. Then of course, one can compare 'peers' that are listed abroad which is even more dissimilar given that investors may have different risk appetites and the main country in which it operates may be different as well.

I have also seen valuations based on various cash flow models like DCFs that may project cash flow for 10 years. If I can predict the cash flow of SI beyond 1 year, I would be very elated, let alone 10 years in this rather dynamic global business environment that all businesses are in. If I cannot predict the cash flow 1 year ahead, I would be surprise that anyone without the benefit of actually running the company, can do better.

Of course, the most creative way of valuing companies was based on amount of money spent, which was the valuation yardstick of dotcom companies at the peak of the boom. It goes to show that humans are so creative that they will find ways to justify any share price. When this happens, we should be extra careful when we read such reports.

I personally, will stick by the PE and NTA ratios but will then drill down the earnings & NTAs so that I know what constitutes these earnings and NTAs. Any other forms of valuation, I take with a pinch of salt.



Information flow is not level

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FD, I agree. When I was new to the market, I tripled my money within a year and I thought that I was gifted in investing. It was a bull market then. Well, 3 years later, I lost it all as my bets got bigger and bigger. Luck can come but luck can go just as quickly.

You can do all the research you want but your research will be based on available information. Information flow is not level. Running a business is not like turning the TOTO wheel and when the ball drops, everyone is told the number immediately. In a business, before deals can be made, many people have to be in the know....such as lawyers, business partners, suppliers, PR consultants, etc. Hence, even before a deal can be announced, many are already in the know. As investors, we must realize that there is this deficiency in the market.

This is why if you are a typical punter, it is likely that you will be among the last to know. Your chances of success are unlikely to be more than 50%.

As a long-term investor, you stand a much better chance as you are not dependent on the sudden ups and downs. Put another way, if you believe in the future of a company and invested early, it really does not matter if information flow was not efficient as you will be able to ride the share whether or not the share price went up before the announcement.

Investing successfully requires a combination of experience and foresight. It is very tough to get all these experiences when you are young. I always encourage those who want to be successful in the market to excel in what they are currently doing as every occupation teaches you something in the university of life. Following which, they should try their hand at running businesses. Only after that, should they consider investing as a career as I don't think you can learn the experiences of life by clicking on your keyboard.



Buy on rumors, sell on news

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So many stocks in our exchange are exhibiting this behavior of rising before the news is out and succumbing to profit taking thereafter.

The fact that there are rumors before the actual news suggests that information had been leaking out. In other words, there may be insider activities. However, the way it is reported is as if this is a normal occurrence in our stock market.

In an ideal stock market, of course, this should not happen. But in the real world, it does and everyday we see instances of this happening. However, I feel it is not correct for these instances to be reported as buy on rumors, sell on news. It is as good as saying that there were insider activities and this is OK. It should not be OK to have insider activities before the release of news.

In fact, in the ideal world, whenever this happens, the authorities should be on the lookout for insider activities. But sadly, I don't think that this is the case.

Because there is this gap between those who know and those who don't that I am a believer that the best way to invest in our stock market is to look for fundamentally sound stocks and hold these. With this strategy, it really does not matter if there are insider activities before the release of news because one would have bought the counter way before the leakage of the news.



Are company issued warrants good or bad?

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Thought this is an interesting topic and hence, hijacked it over here.

Vajra, personally, I feel that when company’s issue warrants, they are better off not underpricing or overpricing their warrants.

For example, if the mother share is at $1 and the company issues warrants with exercise price of 20cts, more than likely there will be folks who will convert the warrant. But the company will only get 20cts per warrant converted. The effect is that new shares are created which then dilutes the eps of the mother shares and all the company gets is 20cts.

On the other hand, if the warrant exercise price is at $2, it may be out of the money and no one converts. If this happens, then the company may have to find money somewhere else as warrants are usually issued when the company takes a loan and the concept is that when warrants are converted, whatever the company gets from the conversion of the warrant, will be used to pay off the loan.

Hence, ideally, if company’s issue warrants, the exercise price of these warrants are pegged at a price in which the company feels its share price will be at expiry of the warrants.

If one takes the same example and the company thinks that in 5 years time, its share price will be $1.50, it may do better pricing its warrants at $1.30 or so rather than pegging it at 20cts exercise price. After all, those shareholders who get these free warrants are actually not getting anything free as their shareholdings will be diluted and so will the PE when these warrants are exercised.



The market is Manic Depressive

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Loupan, I have hijacked your posting and will answer it here so that it is easier to locate in the future.

My experience is in line with yours. What I realized was that being too rationale may not be in the best interest of one's financial health. This is why you will notice that I will hold on to my shares and let it run way beyond what I think is fundamentally sound. Reason for this is because the market is manic-depressive in nature.

When it is depressed, it will push your stocks downwards to bargain levels and when it is manic, it will push it up, way beyond levels we would imagine. The manic-depressive mood swings are a reflection of the moods of the common investors. They are greedy and this will push stocks way higher than anyone can imagine. Their fear will push prices to bargain levels and below. To maximize one's return, one has to take into consideration the manic depressive moods that Mr. Market has.

I also believe that our markets are too small to try to apply the full herd instinct theories. As a result, demand and supply become even more important factors for us to understand.

Imagine if everyone were to buy up Lion Teck Chiang. The supply will run out as the demand soaks up all available supply. The price will go up and up. It will then cross the fundamental comfort level that a sensible investor will have. But to a lot of investors, as the price climbs, they get roped in and with this, the price zooms higher and higher and goes beyond what is fundamentally sound.

The herd instinct than takes over the fundamentals. I don't underestimate the power of herd instinct at this stage. But at the back of my mind, I am also aware that illusions will have to end one day and one does not want to carry the baby. Hence, in climbing the mountain, after attaining a comfort level, it is good to continue climbing for a bit more but one certainly does not want to climb to the top as the fall from there is not very pleasant. How far higher to climb is an art I am still trying to master.



The market's mood swings

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Gerrald08, if I knew the market was going to tank the way it did, I too would have sold off everything and bought back later. However, reality is that none of us knew that the market would lose hundreds of points in a matter of days. Those who knew could have been millionaires overnight.

There will be many who will say that they saw it coming. But if they are not millionaires from the last few days, take their statements with a large pinch of salt. With hindsight, we are all millionaires.

If you are like me and cannot predict the mood swings of the market, we have to invest based on our understanding of the future of a business and not that of the market. The market is manic-depressive and has mood swings. I am not good at predicting these mood swings and will never be. Hence, my focus is not to predict the future of the mood swings of the market. I am better at predicting the future of the companies in which I invest.

However, saying that, where I differ from most fundamental investors is that I also like to have a feel of the market in general. Thought I cannot predict the ups and downs and mood swings of the market, I like to hold a long-term view of the market direction. I am still of the opinion that the market uptrend is intact. However, if my view changes on the overall direction of the market, I too will sell my fundamental stocks.



Controlling one's emotion in a falling stock market

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It is a fact of life that markets go up as well as down. When markets go up, everyone is happy. When it goes down, most are very sad and depressed. There is nothing wrong with these feelings of elation and depression as this is how God made us. To be human, we are all made to be emotional.

Successful investors can control their emotions better. As the way we react to market circumstances vary between all of us, each of us has to find our own ways of controlling our emotions.

For me, I control my emotions this way. I split my stocks up into tikam stocks and investment stocks.

For tikam stocks, if I read the market wrongly and I lose 10%, I would cut loss. No ifs, no buts. I simply cut loss. To be a successful trader, you must be discipline. By being discipline, you remove the element of emotions in your trades. It is emotions that will give you a 101 reasons why you should not cut loss. Ignore your emotions. Cut loss and move on.

In trading, you must preserve your capital above everything else. Capital to trading is like bullets to a war. Lose your bullets and no matter how good you are, you are as good as dead without bullets.

For my investment stocks, if the market falls and the stock is now cheaper, I would be inclined to buy even more of these stocks. Herein lies the risk of fundamental investing. You must choose your investment stocks very carefully or else you can lose a lot of money.

In fact, I always tell people that it is more risky investing in fundamental stocks than to tikam. After all, if you are disciplined in your trading and stick rigidly to a 10% cut loss strategy, the maximum you can lose is 10% of your capital. If you invest wrongly in a fundamental stock and keep averaging down (buying more stocks at a lower price), you can lose your pants if the shares keep falling all the time.

The key to reducing your risk in fundamental investing is to define your margin of safety very careful.

If you define your margin of safety correctly, you are putting in place a mechanism to control your emotions, even in a falling market. If you define this correctly, you can sleep well as you know that solid assets underpin your fundamental investments. This is why during the last few days, I have been adding to my fundamental stocks and I continue to sleep well.



Surviving a market downturn

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Firstly, one must make an educated guess as to whether the market downturn is the start of a bear market or just a hiccup in a bull market.

To me, if fundamentals remain strong and there is nothing major that is wrong with the world markets, then I will remain bullish. If a bubble starts bursting, then there is something seriously wrong....like the worldwide dotcom bubble of the past.

Many talk about the potential bubble in China....the empty apartments and office buildings and the increasing property market. True that there is growth potential because of the population of China but there is also this risk of a bubble. As everyone is in China, any effect here will have a drastic worldwide effect. If China falters, everyone will feel it. Also falling demand will result in falling commodity prices, which may be good for some industries, but for others, it may suck their growth away. This is something that I will continue to keep an eye on. However, even if this were a bubble, it will take time to develop and hence, I do not see any immediate concern yet.

As a result, I remain very bullish on the stock market and have been adding to my positions.

The other reasons why I can remain calm in a downturn are because:

1. I don't invest in the latest concept stocks like China stocks in the weeks preceding the downturn. Yes, I tikam these stocks but as I am just trading in these stocks, I have a clear-cut loss strategy. In any market downturn, I will cut loss. No ifs, no buts. This is the key to profitable trading - Discipline.

2. Although I have margin accounts, even though I occasionally use margin, I use these sparingly. If you are close to maxing your margin account, in any significant downturn, you are likely to be hit by margin calls. In a market downturn, if you have to sell your positions because of these calls, these sales are likely to be at your disadvantage. Hence, use margin sparingly.

3. I always have some available cash for such market downturns as there are buying opportunities during these times. Worse thing is that one does not have ammo to buy when he feels strongly that the market is still bullish but is in a correction phase.

Of course, at the end of the day, the most important decision to make is whether the downturn is the start of a bear market or just a correction in a bull market. If it is a bear, do not get me wrong. I will sell everything. Yes, everything, including my fundamental stocks.

However, in this case, I am still very bullish and continue to buy. Take care folks.



Strong hands & weak hands

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Money drives our stock market. If you have lots of money, you have the ability to encourage prices to move the direction you want. After all, the market is about supply and demand and if you have the money to suck up the available supply, the share price is more likely to rise. Strong hands are people with money.

On top of money, strong hands usually have patience. If strong hands want to buy, they usually don't like to have too many passengers on board. Hence, before they buy, it is more likely that they will want to push the shares lower. As the shares go lower, those with poor holding power will start wondering whether they should cut loss.

Those with poor holding power are called weak hands. When the share price drops 10-20%, weak hands are likely to sell to the strong hands. If the price falls further by 30-40%, those weak hands that have been holding will soon have weak legs as well and they are even more likely to sell.

These weak hands then lose money and start licking their wounds. If the strong hands are keen on the stock, you can bet that the strong hands were buying from the weak hands during this downturn.

When the strong hands have collected enough, they use their financial might to buy up whatever shares the sellers have left. As the supply of stocks dry up, the share price is most likely to escalate upwards very quickly.

The weak hands that sold at a loss will then start regretting their decision to cut loss. Some will start buying back at much higher levels. Others, will buy at even higher levels as they are then afraid of missing the boat. What many of the weak hands may not know is that the strong hands are now distributing back to them.

When the distribution is completed, the volume for the shares may dwindle significantly. Market interest in the stock dies down. The stock price slowly edges downwards, leaving the weak hands to hold on to the baby.

Sometimes, the strong hands will help the market downwards by shorting the shares and making on the downward path as well. Strong hands may even repeat the cycle again and make on the way up and on the way down.

When you invest in the stock market, it is always useful to know what kind of hand you have. If you have weak hands like most retail investors, know that there are usually strong hands around and you have to be extra careful as to how you read a stock direction as the involvement of strong hands can affect the stock chart.

Hence, it is important to take your time to identify your fundamental stocks. Ideally, you have a good margin of safety such that if these shares fall in value, you have the stomach to hold on to the stocks or even buy more by averaging down.

Of course, if the fundamentals of the stock change, it is a different matter. In such circumstances, I too may be a seller. But if the fundamentals remain unchanged, be prepared to hold on or buy more. Fundamental investing is OK if you do not have strong hands....but you must certainly not have a weak heart.



Gut feel & neural networks

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There is a proliferation of neural network software’s that claim to be able to predict stock market movements by either mapping existing stock patterns with chart patterns from the past or extrapolating charts. As human beings, we are always trying to explain stock market movements and find tools to predict the future.

What most of us don't realize is that we all have a very powerful brain that collates conscious and subconscious data and information which is far more powerful than the most powerful neural networks, yet, most of us do not trust what we are blessed with. Our brain is more powerful than the most powerful machines and more dependable than our cars.

As we don't understand the full powers of our brain, we don't trust what it is telling us. Our brain collates information and presents it as gut feel. Gut feel consolidates all the information that passes through our 5 senses and taints it with a little bit of emotions and past experiences.

Most of the information that passes through our 5 senses is actually subconscious rather than conscious. For example, you may see a pretty girl walking past and this is remembered in your conscious mind. But in the background, there may be someone walking a dog and a bird flying past. These are captured in our mind as subscious images.

Logic comes from our analysis of our conscious mind. Gut feel is the sum total of our conscious and subconscious information. When our gut feels talks to us, it is extracting subconscious data, adding it to the conscious data and analyzing these in the background of past experiences. No neural network can come close to the power of our brains yet, in trying to guess the future, most of us do not fully use what is in between our ears.

We should never underestimate the power of gut feel when we invest in stocks and shares. Gut feel is especially important to me when I tikam stocks as time is of the essence and the ability to process conscious and subconscious data quickly can make the difference between a winning and a losing trade.



Developing your own style of investing

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All of us have different personalities, circumstances as well as expectations. To be able to invest successfully, we have to be at one with ourselves. We must firstly understand ourselves. We must understand how we would respond in times of fear and greed.

If we succumb to greed, we are more likely to hold our stocks forever in the hopes that the stocks will continue to rise and rise, even though most of us know that very few stocks will rise forever. We are best to try to learn to control our element of greed or to have a cut loss strategy even for our fundamental stocks.

For those of us who succumb to fear, it is most likely that we would be selling too early in any bull run. We would take our profits early and then see our shares zooming to outer space and regretting our decision to take profits too early. We must learn to overcome this element of fear by not taking profits on our fundamental stocks too early or not be too involved in the market and only viewing our fundamental portfolio every week instead of every minute.

For those of us who have both greed and fear, with hindsight, we will realize that we have greed and fear all at the wrong time. When the stocks are near their peak, our fear prevented us from selling at the peak and we land up carrying our babies. When the stocks are crashing, our greed takes over and we buy even more stocks as the market is crashing.

To overcome our elements of fear and greed, we should have an investment system in place. For those of us who trade, we should have a trading system in place. The systems that you use should be tailored specifically to your circumstances, expectations as well as to the way you handle fear and greed.

I have my own trading and investment systems, which I have shared in this forum but it may not be that applicable to you given that your circumstances and expectations may vary. For me, I can park my money for a long time. However, I have high expectations for my investments and I want to multiply these very quickly. Hence, I am willing to take more risks. Moreover, as I have aged, I have gone through over 20 years of investing and am more able to control my fear and greed.

All of us should develop our own styles of investing (and for that matter, trading) that fit in with our character. Yes, it is good to learn from others how they invest but do bear in mind that everyone's circumstances, expectations and control of fear and greed are different.



Knowing both fundamentals and technical

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Rlin, successful investing requires an in-depth knowledge of how companies are run and how the stock exchange works. To understand how companies are run, there is no substitute for being an employee, to start with.

Working for big companies is also different from working for SMEs. I spent 7 years in IBM, the last 3 years in an executive position. I then spent 2 years heading an SME owned by Australian Jews. I learnt much more about businesses in that 2 years than I did for my entire spell in IBM. But IBM taught me what large companies look for and I have to add that many things are different from SMEs. Only when one is exposed to both will one understand what each looks for and this knowledge is important in investing.

Running SI over the past 6 years have given me insights into the stock market that I would never have got otherwise. Being a member of the SGX securities committee has opened my eyes further into the workings of an exchange. Being close to senior management in Bursa has added more depth to my understanding of other regional stock markets.

Hence, investing is not something that came naturally to me. I have to learn about businesses, stock exchanges on top of being active as a trader and investor.

Mega trends are long-term trends. Yes, I need mega trends to help me decide whether I should be vested in the stock markets as my fundamental stocks depend on a bullish mega trend. However, my entry into my fundamental stocks is partially determined by the technical. Hence, I use both fundamentals and technical for my fundamental stocks.

For my tikam stocks, I use a lot of trading data like Vol Distribution and Quote Movements on top of technical data.

To be an investor/trader, you need to be fluent in both fundamentals as well as technical.

I will be away in Beijing for the next few days as SI starts exploring the China market. Take care.



Companies I avoid

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With smaller companies especially, one has to ensure that the objectives of the management (who are usually the controlling shareholders as well) are in line with those of minority shareholders.

1. Salaries. If management pays themselves high salaries relative to the profits of the company, one has to be extra careful. This is especially the case if the company barely makes a profit but the management takes home healthy salaries. Sadly, it is not possible to know how much actual salary is paid as the current requirement is just to give salary bands rather than actual salaries. A salary band of $500K to $1 mil is really too wide to be that useful. Moreover, on top of salaries, there can be performance shares, bonuses or options which makes the calculations even more difficult.

2. Poor investor communications. These companies keep a very low profile and management rarely gives updates to the minority shareholders. In AGMs, these companies do not take too well to the feedback of the minority shareholders.

However, there are some companies that do this so as not to alert corporate sharks as to the real value of their companies. Hence, one has to sift out the real undervalued stocks from the rest of the stocks in this category.

3. Significant interested party transactions. The company does a lot of transactions with related companies. Some of these companies are co-owned by the majority shareholder. This makes it difficult to gauge the actual profitability of the business as one can buy from a related company at a higher price or at a lower price, depending on what the majority shareholder wants to achieve.

Similarly, I am extra careful if the daughter company is listed rather than the holding company. For example, if the holding company owns a manufacturing plant, it can theoretically lower the price of manufacturing and make the daughter company look very profitable. The manufacturing company on the other hand will chalk up huge losses but as this is unlisted, few will know or care.



Are high volume counters better than low volume counters?

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If you are a trader, you should certainly trade only in high volume counters. Otherwise, you may not be able to exit your positions. This is a fact, which no one can deny.

However, if you are an investor, do you really want to invest in high volume counters? High volume can suggest a few things. Firstly, the counter is well researched as it is well traded. This means that it is unlikely that there are jewels in this company that has not been revealed yet. The counter is likely to be trading at its fair value and if you are looking for bargains, I doubt you will find many in high volume counters.

High volume can also suggest that strong hands are at play together with all the 'funny' hands and all types of hands. I am a believer of supply and demand and when there are so many hands involved, truly, the share price can go either direction depending on what the hands are doing. This puts an investor at the mercy of these hands.

For me, as an investor, I go for counters that no one wants. The trading volume is usually very low as I am looking for jewels and the chances of finding these in a remote island are far better than finding in a crowded place like Singapore. I know that when others find out that there are jewels in this remote island, all the speculators will come and the volumes will then swell. When this happens, it is time to say thank you and move on to identify the next remote island.

Investors should not shy away from low liquidity counters just because these have low trading volumes. The best values and the highest margin of safety can be found in these unloved counters. Good thing too about unloved counters is that there are usually no funny hands around and what you see in the queues is what you get.

However, investors must realize that it can take months or years before these counters get the attention of other investors and speculators and as such, investors must have good holding power to invest in such counters.



20% returns should be achievable

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Decided to answer this private message here so that others can also voice their opinions as well. Nothing better than to hear as many views as possible.

I must admit that a lot of my money is in the stock market. I feel comfortable with this because I spend a lot of my time analyzing and keeping an eye on the stocks that I hold. If I had a full time job elsewhere, I would certainly not recommend putting so much into stocks and shares as I would then not have the time to monitor these stocks.

Successful stock market investing requires a lot of time. Don't belief those who tell you otherwise. Believe me, there is a lot of sweat and tears. The pre requisites will be a sharp, analytical mind as frankly, one is competing against the best brains to make that extra buck. Even better if you have the experience of running your own business and one can put oneself into the shoes of the management and predict what they are likely to do given those circumstances. Also, one has to belief in him as frankly, whenever money is concerned, you can only trust yourself and your judgment.

If one spends quality time analyzing stocks and shares, you should at least have a return of 20% or more. To show what is possible with just $10K, 3 years ago I opened my first margin account. Today, the account is worth over $65K with no borrowings and I did just 3 trades this year. As a margin account is a fully documented account, I intend to share the details when the account reaches $100K. When this has been achieved, I will close the account and liquidate everything to cash to show that the money is real. This is not a demonstration account. The shares that I have in this account are a close reflection of the shares that I hold in my other accounts. There are only 4 stocks in this account.

In the early years of the account, yes, I did use margin as it was not easy to grow $10K. But margin eats both ways and the end of the second trade only left me left with $5K of cash! Fortunately, after the first 2 money losing margin transactions, I learnt how to use margin effectively.

If one does not have so much time to dedicate to stocks and shares, unit trusts and endowment policies may make more sense even though one has to pay the 1% or so of upfront marketing costs.

It is a pity that we don't have a Bershire Hathaway equivalent over here in Singapore and it is my hope that once SI is on a firmer foundation, I intend to look into this. I like the principles of Bershire Hathaway as there are no upfront charges to investors or yearly 'maintenance' fees. I also like the concept of an investing community taken to the next level.



Cutting loss or averaging down

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Wormbunny, in the past, I too tried to practice a cut loss strategy for all my stocks and realized that this does not work for the reasons that you have cited.

Today, I only cut loss on my tikam or speculative stocks if they fall 10% in value since I bought these. These are my short-term trades, may they be intraday or intraweek. These stocks are usually the top 10 most active stocks in that day or week. Hence, there is sufficient volume on both buys and sells queues to run when there is a need to do so. Also, because there is sufficient volume, it is most unlikely that any one player can cause the stock to drop 10% in value so quickly.

For these stocks, if they rise more than 20%, I am out. This way, I need 1 winner to neutralize 2 losing trades (of course, not considering the broking commissions). Most of us are right 50% of the time and hence, this strategy works well for me.

However, for my fundamental stocks, I practice the reverse of cut loss. I actually buy more or average down. Yes, it is a lot more risky investing than tikaming because if you make a mistake and buy a lemon of a fundamental share, you can lose big time as you keep buying and buying when the shares go down in value.

Hence, I spend a lot of time researching every single stock in my fundamental list. Also, I need a large margin of safety in terms of discount to net cash and properties before I park a significant amount of my net worth into these few fundamental stocks.

It is crucial to me to differentiate which of my stocks are my fundamental stocks and which are my tikam stocks as each of these has totally reverse strategies. Do read my investment strategy link below to understand the importance of this differentiation. Take care.



My timing is usually not good

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Rebek, different views make the market what it is today. I love the market. You can play it any, which way you wish. I think you have to find a strategy that fits your personality and of course, your wallet.

Personally, I find it hard to time the market. Hence, I always buy small and then add to my positions. Even if the short-term trend is downwards, it is never easy to know when to sell and when to buy back. Most of the time, I got it wrong in the past and ended up not being able to ride the wave upwards latter as I procrastinate on when to buy back. Hence, now, I just average down. Reason I can do so is because I always start by buying small and have reserves to buy more when the price goes down further.

A common mistake that many investors make is that they think they have perfect timing. They think that the share price will rise the following day after they bought and hence, they use all their available capital to buy as much as they can on that day. I too used to suffer from this delusion of perfect timing. Nowadays, I simply tell myself that my timing is usually poor and hence, I buy slowly and add on to my positions gradually. What I have found is that I can usually buy lower as the months progress.



Having an investment strategy helps us overcome our emotions

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For my fundamental stocks, I find it very important to have a investment strategy that I follow closely. This strategy helps me overcome my emotions of fear and greed.

In the event my fundamental stocks fall in value without any obvious changes to the fundamentals of the stock, the element of fear will result in most of us taking our profits too early. To hold on to these stocks will not be instinctive to most of us. To buy even more stocks would contradict even the more bullish of investors. But, for my fundamental stocks, this is exactly what I would do - buy more.

Hence, it is very important to me that before I identify a stock as being a fundamental stock, I would have gone through the stock fundamentals with a fine comb and ascertain that it has a good margin of safety. If I did not do my homework thoroughly, I would not have the guts to buy more if it continues falling in price. If I am wrong, I can suffer significant financial loss. Hence, I take the issue of identifying a fundamental stock very seriously.

When the stock climbs in value, our element of fear will encourage most of us to take our profits and run. With my fundamental stocks, if the fundamentals remain strong, I would continue holding on to these stocks unless the stock has exceeded my exit price for it. Yes, for every stock, I do have an exit price, which I keep, close to my chest for obvious reasons!

Having an exit price allows me to overcome my element of greed. As the share price races ahead, one can be easily swept by the euphoria and when that happens, one will continually elevate one's exit price. Hence, when one's mind is sound and the external environment peaceful, it is the best time to determine a fair valuation for exit. My exit price is usually already at a premium to the fair market value of the stock.