刘銮雄：投资从不追高 2012年02月02日

一件深色休闲T恤衫，一如既往的平头;说到高兴处，“香港最有故事的人”——刘銮雄仍会情不自禁站起来，拔高自己的嗓门。眉心那颗痣，依然令人记忆深刻。

　　在最新出炉的福布斯2012年“香港富豪榜”上，刘銮雄以65亿美元财富位列第5 位。在2007年金融危机爆发之前，他在“福布斯全球富豪榜”上仅以21亿美元财富位列第458位;而在世界经济局势动荡了4年之后，其个人财富却递增到三倍。

　　2007 年12月31日，新年派对之夜，刘銮雄就对朋友们讲，“应该卖股票了，现在卖掉，唯一的风险就是赚得少点而已”;进入2008 年上半年，刘銮雄一直在减持手上的股票;等到雷曼兄弟破产之时，其股票已几近清仓，转握大把现金。

　　到了2009年3月，一天吃晚饭的时候，他接到一个对冲基金经理打来的电话，说手上有很多渣打银行美元6.409% 息率无期债券(Standard Chartered PLC 6.409% USD Perpetual Bond)，面值100，现在愿意以32 全部出手。“我一算，这个好啊。输就输32 元，但赚就是100元。”刘銮雄以手上现金全部吃进，当时市场已经惊慌到极点，很多优质债券受雷曼兄弟迷你债券拖累都跌得很低很低。

　　之后，随着市场回暖，投资者回归理性，这批渣打债券回到100元左右。刘銮雄选择在97-99元之间全部出清，“幸运的是，海啸来之前，手上拿的都是现金。在别人都恐慌的时候，我才好冷静，敢出手，也有钱买入。”

　　在金融危机来之前，紧跟牛市步伐的刘銮雄已经赚得盆满钵满;金融海啸来之后，他又够胆反身入市，比常人再多赚一轮。“当时德意志银行的债券都跌到六十几元，我觉着这些世界大银行都不怕，有就买入。债券不同股票，赚10%都很好了，这个我都赚了几倍。”

　　现在，刘銮雄手上的持仓仍以债券为主，股票的头寸非常少。“现在市况不明朗，欧洲的债券危机还没解决，欧元区不确定会不会垮掉，这些都是拖累股票很负面的信息。”

　　刘銮雄现在手上持有的多是巴克莱、德意志银行以及私人银行Rabobank卖出的以美元计价为主的债券，债券平均利息水平在10%-12%，而对于欧洲一众政府主权债券敬而远之，“这些民选政府政治很难看懂的，一届走了，另一届来了，不知道他们搞些什么，以前南美洲一些政府债券发生过这些问题。政府不认账已经不是新闻，这是个乱世，公司债比政府债还稳妥些。”

　　不过，与H股相比，刘銮雄认为A股的投资时机已经到了。“A股现在都可以买了，我觉着到底不远了。但是我买起来不方便，主要还是买H股，控制起来自由。”在他看来，现在对H股影响最大的两个因素，一个是中国经济发展如何，如果2012年初银根放宽，会是一个利好;另一个也是最主要的因素，是欧债危机的进展情况，这个对H股的影响一定大过A股。

　　“虽然欧元区解体的机会很小，但是你让我把财富都压在这上面去，我是不会做这样的事的。从投资的概念上讲，欧洲不像美国、英国，都只有一个政府;欧洲由很多国家组成，有很多个政府，有矛盾都很难调和。做生意一定要注意投资市场，2012年也要小心了，整个这一年(2011年)我都好谨慎小心的。”

　　与很多专业基金经理相比，刘銮雄做股票投资的历史接近30年，从未有过系统专业训练，也无方法可言，对机会的把握和对风险的控制纯粹出自直观感受。他唯一能讲得出的理论，就是从不追高，“谁追谁死啊”。

　　他自言，最擅长的就是在市场低潮中买入，仅仅几次的实践，就使得他在资本市场上的回报不断放大他的实业收益。往往在市场经历疯狂过后步入低潮的时候，能够再次投资的人已不多，而刘銮雄却能，这是其财富在每经历一个经济周期后毫发无伤并不断积累的最大秘诀。

　　眼下内地房地产业的低潮也吸引了他，刘銮雄旗下的华人置业，主要以商业地产为主，近几年在内地斩获不少。除早年在北京、上海投资物业外，最近几年单是成都的投资，就已经超过100亿人民币：华置· 西锦城 、成都太升南路项目、成都锦江区东大街项目以及重庆华新街等项目都是其在2011 年力推的。

　　这些项目都带给刘銮雄巨大的回报，“北京、上海好几个项目都是十几、二十年前地价很低的时候买下的，成都这些项目地块也是4-5年前买下的，光是土地就已经升值3-4倍了，最近1-2 年内中国的地都好贵，所以这2-3年我都没有买过新地皮。”

　　刘銮雄旗下九成物业都是商场、写字楼，以收租为主，因此受中国政府的宏观调控较小。现在，华人置业旗下的香港物业，单月租金收入达1.2 亿港币左右;其在中国内地的租金收入在1,900万元人民币左右，随着再建物业的陆续投入使用，这一数字会达到6,000万人民币。强劲的现金流，使得华人置业有实力继续在内地扩张，内地很多房产开发商的资金紧缺给了刘銮雄机会。除却重金投资恒大、佳兆业的债券，华人置业也在积极探寻和内地开放商的项目合作。

　　同时，刘銮雄和其弟刘銮鸿以及郑裕彤多年捆绑一起共同投资的旗舰公司利福国际(01212.HK)，2002年在上海投资开发久光百货后，2011年12月中旬再次出手，以24.67亿人民币买下闸北区一幅商业办公服务用地，意欲在该区域打造久光第二。

　　“现时只要内地项目价钱合理，我都会买。内地房地产现在受政府调控打压，但长远来看，中国就一定好。”刘銮雄在内地的大笔投入来自这一绝对信心的支持，他自言对房产投资的第一选择还是香港，但香港现时空间太小，而内地虽暂时对其集团收益贡献有限，但未来市场潜力巨大。

　　如果非要有第三个选择的话，他会选伦敦，伦敦的各种律法和香港一脉相承，对他来讲轻车熟路;最关键的是相较美国、加拿大等地，伦敦的税负很轻且操作简单。“我对北美市场好熟，但房地产美国真没的搞，税太重。英国税很简单，增值部分不交税，伦敦地价从高点已经跌了30%，但是还不够。但我知道很多主权基金比如新加坡、香港、阿拉伯都去买伦敦物业了。

投資前要先設定進出場原則

投資人在研究公司時，當需了解一家公司是否具備競爭優勢？經營策略如何？經營團隊是否具備帶領公司向前的能力？提出這些問題主要是在幫助我們進一步去了解研究的對象是否符合好公司的標準。在我看來，對的人(好的經營團隊)，正確地運用資金(合理的資本配置)產生一套賺錢的商業模式(護城河競爭優勢)，就是一家值得關注的公司。

不過，投資如果只是找出具備競爭優勢的好公司並不能保證獲利，我認為關鍵還在於買入公司股票的價格不能太高，盡可能在公司的股價和真實價值出現大幅安全邊際時買入，才是持盈保泰之道。一家公司難免會遇到股價大幅波動的時候，這時候更要堅定自己的信念，在公司沒有出現自己設定出場或進場的條件之前，不要輕易地買賣股票。假設一家公司出現虧損，先要審慎判斷這樣的虧損是否屬於短期現象，或是公司實際上已經遇到不可逆的情況出現。假如是第一種狀況，尚不需太過擔心，只要再持續觀察其營收獲利狀況是否恢復正常即可。但如果是第二種狀況，投資人就要果斷執行出場原則，千萬不要抱有僥倖心理，以為公司有能力可以逆轉自身遭遇的問題，使得經營回歸正常。

就心理而言，大家都愛看逆轉勝的電視情節或球賽，但是投資上這樣的事情則不常出現。通常公司在遇到自身競爭優勢喪失或者產業逆風的情況，要想再次翻身，難度相當高。這也就是為什麼股神巴菲特提到自己投資時，從事的是顯而易見的判斷選項，而非一連串自己無法釐清的問題。也就是說投資人要做到「迴避妖龍，而不是冒險屠龍。」因此投資人一旦發現自己持有的公司喪失競爭優勢，就必須果斷出清，決不可戀棧。

另一方面，當一家公司被市場低估或是其優勢沒有被太多人看見的時候，投資人要保持著無比耐心，等待蒙塵的珍珠再次發光。以個人的投資為例，我曾經買入一家自己相當看好的公司股票，其在該產業具備相當的競爭優勢，但持有兩三個月後覺得其他的股票似乎前景更加亮眼，而且自己持有的公司股價紋風不動，載浮載沉，於是索性將其出清了。出清的一兩個星期後，市場傳來該公司有關的利好消息，其主要客戶的銷售傳出捷報，連帶公司也被外資看好調升目標價。而該公司股價則在一兩個星期之間大漲了30%。我只能看著高漲的股價懊悔，怪自己沒能堅持原則而錯失了一檔好公司的股票。

關於個股進出場原則的設定，個人認為有其必要性，這是屬於事先承諾的決策，投資人須依循這些原則來管理自己的投資，任意變更或是不遵守自己事先承諾的進出場原則，有可能換來慘痛的代價。以下是我自己進出場的原則，僅供參考，讀者也可以自行擬定個人的股票進出場策略。

買入原則：

1.公司基本面無虞，股價卻因市場或某些非關基本面因素大幅下挫。

2.公司股票有內部人士持續買進股價卻是持續下跌。

3.股票市況不佳或是所屬類股不受青睞致使股價持續低迷。

4.公司競爭優勢更加鞏固，財務及營運表現持續轉佳。

 賣出原則:

1.公司股價在短期大幅上揚，但基本面並無太大變化，考慮賣出。

2.公司的營運基本面轉差，競爭優勢明顯喪失，果斷賣出。

3.公司對於營運展望的說法與業績表現不一致，又無合理的原因說明，賣出。

4.發現市場上有更被低估的公司股票，手上又無較多現金部位時，賣出換股。

吃苦的樂趣

我們都知道吃苦的重要性。

因為沒有痛苦，就沒有成長（No pain, no gain）；吃得苦中苦，方為人上人。這些道理耳熟能詳。

我們也知道，儘管不少人會強迫自己吃苦（如，從事不喜歡的工作），但吃苦只是暫時性的手段，他們的真實目標是追求成功或生活的舒適。

那麼問題來了，如果舒適是目標，那麼為什麼不干脆一開始就跳過吃苦並舒適的過日子？如果生存沒有壓力、吃苦不是必需的，那吃苦有什麼意義？

這一篇我們就來談談，有關「吃苦」和「舒適」之間的矛盾——這是個多數現代人終究會遇到的矛盾，以及更重要的：為什麼適當的吃苦是舒適生活的必備。

我們先從下面這個悖論談起。

舒適的悖論

一種普遍的願望是，如果工作賺夠了錢，以後就能持久的舒適，不再需要吃苦了。這是許多人共有的典型「先苦後甜」的願望。

雖然人們很難真的「賺到足夠的錢」，但我們假設小明辦到這點好了，小明因為有了足夠的金錢，因而過著人人羨慕的舒適生活。

而這就是「舒適的悖論」發生的時候。

當小明舒適久了，會發生兩件事情：
小明會慢慢適應新環境帶來的這份舒適感，而在時間推移下，舒適感慢慢變成了無聊、厭倦感。於是，小明再次變得不滿於現狀，要去尋找更舒適的生活方式。
他會對「不舒適」變得越來越敏感，以前不會讓他感到不舒適的事情，現在卻成了不舒適的根源。例如，以前的小明對飲食不太講究，但現在的他卻無法忍受把廉價食品放入嘴裡；以前的小明可以在沒空調的大熱天入眠，但現在的他卻無法待在沒有空調的房間超過一小時。

結果是，小明永遠也不可能會獲得「持久的舒適」。

另一方面，小強和小明的情況剛好相反。小強原本是個中等收入家庭的孩子，但忽然一夜之間，因為父親的生意失敗，結果成了窮苦人家的孩子，更不幸的是，他還得了重病。

這當然讓小強的日常倍感不適，他一度覺得自己是世上最不幸的人，他認為自己的不幸、不適會一直持續下去。

而這就是「舒適的悖論」發生的第二種情況。

當小強不舒適久了，會發生兩件事情：
小強會慢慢的適應不舒適——原本的不舒適感在時間推移後，會慢慢變成習以為常，不舒適不再困擾小強了。
他會對「舒適」變得越來越敏感，以前不會讓他感到舒適的事情，現在卻成了舒適的根源。例如，他的病情有時會忽然好轉，而在這身體活力十足的幾天裡，他會單純的因為身體的活力而感到舒適。他也會因為收到一些小禮物而感到滿足。

舒適會帶來不舒適，不舒適會帶來舒適。

這就是舒適的悖論。

舒適的悖論告訴我們，如果你要讓生活變得舒適的話，那麼盲目追求持續的舒適，會反倒讓自己對「不適」變得敏感。

它還告訴我們另一個反直覺，甚至看似有點自相矛盾的的建議——

如果你要讓生活變得舒適的話，那就讓自己多一些不適，用本文的主體來說，就是讓自己吃苦。

有趣的是，這一建議竟得到了心理學研究的支持。

苦中苦

先看一項實驗，出自行為經濟學家丹·艾瑞利（Dan Ariely）在《怪誕行為學2》（台版《不理性的力量》）一書：

受過重傷的人，似乎在餘生都會比一般人更能忍受疼痛。

為了驗證這一點，我們找了一家專門為在戰爭中負傷的軍人服務的鄉村俱樂部，在那裡設立了一個小型實驗室。我們在鄉村俱樂部周圍貼了告示：「誠招志願者參加簡短、有趣的實驗研究。」

參與者都不同程度地受過傷，他們急切地來到小實驗室，迎接他們的是一個配有加熱裝置的水池，裡面是熱水，還有支溫度計。

我們已經把水加熱到48攝氏度，並請他們先伸進一隻手臂。參與者的手一放進熱水，我們馬上按下計時器並且對他們說，如果發燙的感覺上升到疼痛（我們稱之為「疼痛門檻」）馬上告訴我們。

然後，我們讓參與者繼續把手臂放在水中，直到他們覺得忍受不住了（這叫做「疼痛耐量」）就把手臂拿出來。做完一隻換另外一隻。一旦參與者結束了實驗，我們就向他們提出一些問題：受傷的時間與經過，第一次住院期間的疼痛情況（平均來看，這些人的受傷時間在參加我們實驗之前的15年），還有最近幾個星期的情況。

這樣做挺費時間，不過我們還是設法收集了大約40個參與者的資料。下一步，我們想弄清參與者受傷的經歷是否可以提高他們忍受疼痛的能力。如果想這樣做，我們就需要找另外一組人作為參照，對不同組的「疼痛門檻」和「疼痛耐量」進行對比。

我們原想徵召一些根本沒有受過傷的人——學生或者購物中心的顧客。但仔細考慮以後，與這些人比較，可能牽涉進許多別的因素。學生們比參與者年輕太多，到購物中心隨機找來的人在個人經歷、受傷與否、生活等方面千差萬別，不具備可比性。我們決定採取另一種方法。

我們把40份參與者的醫療檔案拿到我和弗倫克教授曾經住過很長時間的那家康復醫院，找到一個醫生、兩個護士，還有一個理療師。我們請這些專業醫學人士把這些人分成兩組——輕傷組和重傷組。

這樣分開之後，我和弗倫克教授就有了兩組人，除了受傷程度不同，相對來說他們在其他方面有很多共同點（參與者們都參過軍，受過傷，住過院，都是同一個老兵鄉村俱樂部的成員等）。對這兩組人進行對比，我們希望弄清楚參與者們當年受傷程度是否影響到多年以後他們對於疼痛的感受。

重傷組由諾姆這樣一些人組成，諾姆在軍隊裡擔任拆卸地雷的工作。很不幸，在一次工作過程中，地雷在手中爆炸，好幾塊地雷碎片穿透他的身體，使他失掉了一條腿，一隻眼睛失明。

輕傷組的人中有耶胡達，他在執勤時摔斷了胳膊。他接受了手術，加了個鈦合金託盤修復肘關節，除此之外，他身體各方面都很健康。

輕傷組的參與者報告說，他們的手臂放進熱水後大約4.5秒鐘就會感到疼痛（疼痛門檻），而重傷組的人大約10秒鐘才感到疼痛。

更有意思的是，輕傷組的人把手臂放進熱水中大約27秒鐘拿出來（疼痛耐量），而重傷組的人把手臂放進熱水中可以持續58秒鐘。特別引起我注意的是，為了防止參與者燙傷，我們設置了一個最長時限，不允許他們的手臂在水中超過60秒鐘。

我們事先沒有把這個60秒規則告訴參與者，不過一旦他們到達60秒時限，我們就要求他們將手臂拿出來。在輕傷組，我們的這條規則派不上用場；在重傷組，除了一個人以外，剩下的參與者都需要我們提醒，才會將手臂從熱水中拿出來。

我們發現這一感知痛苦的實驗，似乎牽涉到更普遍意義上的適應問題。儘管實驗的參與者是許多年前受的傷，但他們忍受疼痛的方式和能力似乎都發生了全面變化，而且這種變化一直持續很長時間。

換個角度來延伸這一研究結論：

吃過大苦的人，會更難被痛苦影響，無論是生理還是心理上的。

這其實並不是我們第一次談到類似的結論，我們曾在《持續的幸福》一書的解讀文提到過：

很多人在經歷極端的逆境之後，表現出強烈的抑鬱和焦慮，但隨後，他們成長了。從長遠來看，他們比以前達到了一個更高層次的心理功能。正如尼采所說的「那些殺不死我的，必使我更強大」。

幾年前，克里斯多夫·彼得森、朴蘭淑和我給「真實的幸福」網站加了一個連結。這份新的調查問卷列出了人生中可能發生的15件最糟糕的事情：受折磨、患重病、孩子夭折、被強姦、入獄等。

一個月內，1700個人報告說，他們曾經歷過至少其中一件可怕的事件。他們參加了我們的幸福感測試，令我們感到驚訝的是，那些經歷過可怕事件的人們，比那些沒有經歷過的人擁有更強的優勢（因此有更多的幸福感）。

那些經歷過兩件可怕事件的人比只經歷過一件的人更堅強，而經歷過三件的人又比那些經歷過兩件的人更堅強。

雖然研究結論都指出，吃過苦的人會更容易感受幸福、更堅強——但當然，我不是說為了提升幸福感就要特意去經歷上述那種可怕的事情，那樣做太不理性了、太本末倒置了。上述例子只是以極端例子說明，哪怕是極苦也有積極的一面。

我們一開始就說，吃苦只是手段，它能鍛煉我們讓我們堅強，而我們無需特意體驗到「極苦」才能達到這點。

事實上，只要學會用某種思維方式來看待吃苦，就能提高你吃苦的耐量。

一念天堂，一念地獄

在艾瑞利的疼痛實驗裡，其實還發生了一個小插曲：

在參與實驗的人之中，有兩個受試者與其他外傷患者不同，他們一個患的是癌症，另一個患的是嚴重的腸道病，更不幸的是，他們都是晚期患者。

當時艾瑞利寫告示時並沒有明確參與者的條件，而這兩個沒負過傷的人來應徵實驗時，艾瑞利又不忍心拒絕他們的熱情，於是就讓他們參加了實驗。但是，艾瑞利沒有把他們的材料列入研究範圍。

研究結束後，艾瑞利又看了一下他們的資料，發現裡面有些內容非常引人注意。他們對疼痛的忍受能力不但比重傷組低（他們的手臂在熱水中停留的時間更短），而且比輕傷組的人也低。

同樣是受苦之人的兩位患者，為什麼沒有建立起和重傷者相似的疼痛門檻和耐量呢？

艾瑞利事後猜想，這可能是因為主管感知的不同——重傷者在經歷痛苦時，儘管難受，但他們清楚知道痛苦只是一陣子的，痛苦過後的痊癒能讓他們像正常人一樣生活。

他們甚至能能將痛苦與痊癒關聯起來，當醫生塗抹藥膏在傷口時會很痛，但這些疼痛是為了更快痊癒。這種正面關聯讓他們克服了某些對疼痛的天生恐懼。

從另一方面看，癌症和腸道病的長期病患無法建立疼痛與康復希望之間的關聯，相反，他們更可能把疼痛與病情加重或者死亡聯繫起來。缺少了正面的關聯，疼痛對他們來說就變得更可怕了。

除了身體的創傷之外，其實心理創傷也是如此。

不是每個人都會在遭受嚴重的心理創傷後變得更堅強的，如果心理受創者在事件發生後很長一段時間依然無法復原過來，而且常因心理陰影而陷入負面情緒以至於影響生活，會被診斷為創傷後應激障礙（Post-traumatic stress disorder，簡稱PTSD，又稱創傷後遺症）。

創傷後應激障礙患者的心理韌性也會變得比較脆弱，對刺激源更敏感，常有很大的情緒波動。

心理醫生有很長的一段時間對創傷後應激障礙束手無策（傳統的用藥和心理治療的效果都不佳），至到積極心理學之父馬汀．塞利格曼(Martin Seligman)的研究帶來了新的治療手段。

塞利格曼指出，創傷後應激障能在恰當的敢於後能變成創傷後成長（亦即變得更堅強），促進創傷後成長有5個要素：
認識到創傷後信念的崩塌是正常反應。
減少焦慮和強迫性的想法。
講出創傷經歷。
描述創傷後積極的改變。
總結因創傷而產生的更加堅強、更加無懼挑戰的人生原則和立場。

再簡單一點的說，就是接受並願意討論已經發生的事情，並從創傷事件中找出積極的意義。這與艾瑞利的推斷不謀而合：

把痛苦和正面的想法聯繫起來，才能幫助我們變得堅強。

反之，如果吃苦只能與負面的想法聯繫起來，那麼吃苦就只會消磨一個人的韌性。

孟子說：「天將降大任於斯人也，必先苦其心志，勞其筋骨，餓其體膚，空乏其身，行拂亂其所為，所以動心忍性，曾益其所不能。」

但若細想，如果我們害怕痛苦、逃避吃苦、拒絕痛苦，那麼就算苦心志，勞筋骨，餓體膚，這些苦也只會讓我們對痛苦更敏感，而未必會帶來成長。

這也有助於解釋我們前面所說的舒適的悖論：

你越是想把吃苦從生活中去除，你越是容易感到痛苦。


吃苦的樂趣

理解了上述知識點後，再回看吃苦這件事，我們知道吃苦可以分成「好的吃苦」和「壞的吃苦」——

前者能帶來心智或肉體的韌性、成長，後者卻只會造成破壞；前者能讓我們更少的感受不適，後者則會讓我們感到更多的不適。

那麼，接下來要談的，自然就是以下這一問題：

如何利用「好的吃苦」改善生活品質，以及如何避免「壞的吃苦」降低生活品質？

答案是：主觀的轉化，亦即把「壞的吃苦」變成「好的吃苦」。

轉化分成兩種，第一種是事後轉化——上面已經提到過，如果遭遇了壞事，那麼就試著在發生的壞事裡找到讓自己成長的養分，在失敗中找到能幫助成長的教訓。這很好理解，就不多敘述。

第二種是事前轉化——而這就要說到哲學家喬治·葛吉夫（George Gurdjieff）的教導：「被逼的受苦」是沒有價值的，而「刻意受苦」的卻又巨大的價值。

舉個例子，小明肚子餓了，但他沒有錢去買麵包，他因此而挨餓，這是種「被逼的受苦」。

但如果小明不是沒有能力去買麵包，而是出於選擇而不買麵包——他刻意的挨餓是為了斷食修行，這就是一種「刻意的吃苦」。

雖然兩種情況都是挨餓，但「被逼的受苦」無法帶來心智/意志上的成長，它是沒有價值的，也不會讓人在事後感到滿足；而後者的「刻意吃苦」卻具有價值，而且往往能帶來內在的回報。

不過，「被逼的受苦」會在一種情況變得有價值——那就是採用我們上面提到的事後轉化的方式，你在你曾經受過的苦裡找到積極的意義和養分。

而如果你一開始就有意識的「刻意吃苦」，如果吃苦是你自己的選擇，那麼苦中就會帶甜，甚至吃苦會帶來樂趣。這是事前轉化。

那麼，我們可以在生活中的哪些方面刻意吃苦呢？

三種好的吃苦

在我看來，好的吃苦有三種：

第一種好的吃苦是「簡樸」

我認為簡樸只有一個要素，那就是控制物慾。想買的東西但不需要買的，就不買；想吃的食物但不必吃貴的，那就選便宜的；能簡單一些，就簡單一些。

這倒不是說你不該有任何物質享受，物質享受當然還是可以有的，但簡樸要求你保持「沒有也行」的姿態：不會因為沒有物質享受而感到抓狂，不會因為得不到某些物質而耿耿於懷。

不是讓自己顯得寒酸，也不是因為環境所逼而沒有追求、講究，而是在物慾的引誘出現時，你能夠選擇簡樸。

第二種好的吃苦是「勤奮」

勤奮不是做好分內事，準時上下班——那只是公司和社會要求的最低限度的努力，算不上是勤奮。

勤奮也不是別人要求你做什麼你就做什麼，不是什麼都爭著做，不是不讓自己休息的把自己累垮，不是埋頭苦幹。這些都是看似勤奮的行為，但依然算不上是勤奮。

那什麼是勤奮呢？

我認為村上春樹的一句話最能帶出勤奮的含義：

「今天不想跑步，所以才去跑步。」

勤奮僅僅是一種對抗惰性的態度，這就是勤奮的全部。

第三種好的吃苦是「勇敢」

真正的勇敢不是做別人不敢做的事，而是做自己不敢做的事。

舉例而言，攀崖客們的危險活動對你來說看似是勇敢，但對他們來說，那可能只是稀鬆平常。當然，如果攀崖的地方實在嚴峻，那麼他們也會感到害怕、恐懼，而當他們試著克服恐懼，甚至刻意挑戰自己的恐懼時，他們就成了勇敢。

換言之，有些行為在外人的眼裡看似勇敢，但對當事人來說其實只是平常。反之亦然，有些行為在外人的眼裡看似平常，但其實是勇敢。

我們常說要跳出舒適圈才能獲得進步，這的確沒錯，但很多人以為只要「打破現狀」就已經是跳出舒適圈了，其實不然。

在我看來，所謂跳出舒適圈，不是單純的換個環境、換個習慣而已。

真正的跳出舒適圈，是找到讓你感到恐懼事情，找到讓你覺得不適的事情。

然後，你臉帶笑容的把它吞下。

《怪誕行為學2》還提到了另一個值得一提的實驗：

心理學家利夫·納爾遜和湯姆·梅伊韋斯做了一系列實驗，他們請來了兩組參與者躺在只有在高級商店才能預訂到的高級按摩椅上享受3分鐘的按摩。

第一組是3分鐘不間斷的按摩。第二組先按摩80秒鐘，間隔20秒鐘，然後再繼續按摩——總的按摩時間是2分40秒——比不間斷那一組的時間少20秒鐘。按摩結束後要求所有參與者對整個按摩過程作出評價。

你猜哪一組的參與者給出的評價更高？

但結果最終表明，那些接受中間帶有間隔、時間較短按摩的參與者不僅對整個按摩評價更高，而且表示將來願意出兩倍的價錢享受一次同樣帶間隔的按摩。

我知道，這一結果很反直覺，但生活就是這樣子：

要讓生活舒適，你要做的不是逃避不適，也不是試圖維持永久的舒適。

而是認清吃苦是生活中不可或缺的一部分。然後你有意識的吃苦.

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Gospel Thoughts: Actions Speak Louder than Words

By: Kevin Bennett | Jun 2014

'Talk is cheap' or so the saying goes. Too often in society we don't even expect people to keep their word, but unless our works match our words we're not really living authentically.

In James 2:17-18 the Bible says that "faith by itself, if it is not accompanied by action, is dead. But someone will say, ‘You have faith; I have deeds.' Show me your faith without deeds, and I will show you my faith by my deeds."

James 4:17

James 4:17 English Standard Version (ESV)

17 So whoever knows the right thing to do and fails to do it, for him it is sin.

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The Harm of ‘Believing in Yourself’

Several years ago, when I was a student pastor, I was sitting in an awards ceremony for one of our teenagers. The presenter stood up to begin calling names of the recipients, but before she began handing out the plaques she took the opportunity to sneak a quick speech in.

She began by telling the students how she appreciated their hard work, that God has given each of them gifts that could only come from Him and that they should always serve God and others with these gifts. She then went on to say, “Most importantly, always believe in yourself!”

“You just need to believe in yourself!” How many times have we been told this statement as a pep talk?

Culture tells us this is a great attribute to possess—the ability to take matters into your own hands, to be the determiner of your own destiny and the captain of your own ship. You can do anything that you set your mind to. Believe and achieve! And pull yourself up by your own bootstraps. There are whole sections of the bookstore devoted to helping you think like this, to have self-confidence above all else, and to rely on yourself and yourself alone.

This kind of advice resonates with our human nature because at the end of the day we all love taking matters into our own hands.

We’d rather trust in ourselves because it makes us feel “in control.” However, sadly, deep down in the true essence of who we are, in our soul and spirit, we know it’s a lie. In fact, the more you “believe in yourself,” the deeper the ditch that you find yourself in.

Thankfully, the Bible offers us hope and rescue from ourselves by giving us great reasons why you shouldn’t just believe in yourself:

“BELIEVING IN SELF” CAUSED THE FALL OF THE HUMAN RACE:

The serpent tempts Adam and Eve with the very same thing that got him booted out of heaven, telling them in essence, “You can and will be like God. There is no reason to trust God any longer because you can be like God yourself.” This was the great temptation in the Garden of Eden. It was more than taking a bite of fruit. It was mankind wanting to be God, listening to the serpent over their Creator and “believing in themselves” more than trusting God’s direction.

“BELIEVING IN SELF” CAUSED PROBLEMS FOR THE ISRAELITES IN THE OLD TESTAMENT:

One of the strongest accusations that God continually had toward the Israelites was they kept doing “whatever was right in their own eyes” instead of trusting in Him. The people didn’t need God because they believed in the same statement we believe in today: “to each his own.” The Israelites just did whatever they felt was right. They were “believing in themselves” and felt they had no need to believe in God for direction.

“BELIEVING IN SELF” IS THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT JESUS TAUGHT:

The fundamental statement that Jesus gave us about following Him was not for us to “believe in ourselves” but, rather the exact opposite—“deny yourself.” This denial is more than letting go of some dream or desire. The call is to deny our whole self, all of our natural motives and impulses that conflict with the claims of Christ. In fact, He goes even further to say that we must “take up our cross,” which is an instrument of death.

So, are we supposed to believe in ourselves? No, actually we’re supposed to die to ourselves! “Then Jesus told his disciples, “If anyone would come after me, let him deny himself and take up his cross and follow me” (Matthew 16:24).

Faith in its purest form is believing in God rather than believing in myself. When I attempt to “believe in myself” by being in control, it actually causes me to suffer from stress, worry and anxiety because I am trying to do a job that is way above my pay grade. Being in control is a God-sized job. Therefore, my only job is to trust God to do His job knowing that He is very, very good at it.

In reality, part of the great news of the Gospel is that one of my most dangerous enemies—me—would be put to death. Jesus died so the old me would die; He was buried so the old me would be buried and He now lives so a new me can live. And this new me must now be compelled daily to believe in Jesus.

Doctors in the House

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■ 千楓公視_ 提肛踮腳_王榮義健康養生分享_ 07

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SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY

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Christian Mindfulness - The Jesus Prayer Meditation

最佳古典音樂 鋼琴 小提琴 安靜 純音樂 輕快 輕音樂 莫札特 贝多芬 古典樂合輯 | 古典音乐 纯音乐 轻音乐 轻快 古典歌曲 背景音乐

【好葉】99%的人都沒能真正做到聰明工作 | 全新聰明工作學 | 高績效心智

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2005.02.23康熙來了完整版(第五季第30集) 銀幕下的鰲拜－徐錦江

Your Words Become Your Reality - Joel Osteen

our hearts have to be like a big vessel, able to withstand the many trials and tribulations of life.”

our hearts have to be like a big vessel, able to withstand the many trials and tribulations of life.”

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professional trader

If you can answer these questions, then you have what it takes to become a Professional Trader…

What’s the most important thing to a professional trader, even more so than their trading capital?

Do you know who LOSES the most money in trading? (Hint: it’s not retail traders)

Do you know how much the best in the industry makes? No, it’s not turning $500 into $1m in a few short years.

Now:

If you’re stuck, don’t worry because the answers are contained in this article.

And you may not realize it yet, but in the next 10 minutes, you will know what it takes to become a professional trader — that most traders never find out.

Are you ready?

Let’s roll…

Just because you trade for a hedge fund doesn’t make you a professional trader. Here’s why…

Let me ask you:

When you hear the term Professional Trader, what comes to your mind?

You’ll probably think along hedge funds, bank traders, Institutions, right?

But here’s the thing…

Just because you trade for a hedge fund, a bank, or a huge institution doesn’t make you a professional trader.

Don’t believe me?

Then let me prove it to you…

The collapse of Barings, the oldest merchant bank in Britain

In 1995, Barings, the oldest merchant bank in Britain collapsed after incurring losses of $2.2 billion — by a rogue trader called Nick Leeson.

Nick was heavily long the Nikkei 225 and he kept averaging into his losses as the market went against him.

However, the Nikkei continue plunging after an earthquake hit Japan and his losses snowballed to $2.2 billion which led to the collapse of Barings.

The bailout of Long Term Capital Management

Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was founded by some of the most brilliant minds in finance including Nobel Prize winner, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton.

However in 1998, LTCM nearly collapsed when it incurred staggering losses of $4.6 billion, and it required the Federal Reserve to rescue it.

This happened because LTCM was highly leveraged (holding about $30 for every $1 of capital) and betting the spreads on government bonds would converge.

Clearly, that didn’t happen when Russia default on its debt (in 1998) and the spread of the bonds diverged big time — which led to the $4.6 billion losses.

Bear Sterns collapse and bailout

In 2007, Bear Sterns announced its first loss in 80 years. An $854 million and another $1.9 billion write-downs of its subprime mortgage holdings.

Then, Moody downgrade Bear Sterns to junk status which caused panic in the markets. And because of the junk status, no banks would lend it money.

Eventually, Bear Sterns was bought out by JP Morgan (with the help of the Federal Reserve).

Now let me ask you…

What did the failure of Barings, LTCM, and Bear Sterns have in common?

Attitude? Unlucky? Trading without an edge?

Nope.

It’s this…

Barings, LTCM, and Bear Sterns failed because they lack risk management.

You’re probably wondering:

What is risk management?

Well, it’s the way of managing your bet size (and portfolio risk) so you don’t lose all your trading capital — even if you have many losing trades.

And without risk management, you can’t exploit your edge in the markets… even if you have a profitable trading strategy.

Let me explain…

Let’s say you have a $1000 trading account:

• Your trading strategy has a winning rate of 50%
• It has an average of 1:2 risk reward ratio

Then, these are the outcome of your next 10 trades…

Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Win Win

So, how much profit will you earn?

This depends on your risk per trade.

If risk 20% of your trading account…

You’ll lose your trading account (-20, -20, -20, -20, -20).

But what if is you risk 1% of your trading account?

You’ll earn a profit of 5% (-1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +2, +2, +2, +2, +2).

Now you might be wondering:

“But how do I calculate my risk on each trade?”

Don’t worry.

I’ve written The Complete Guide to Risk management and Position Sizing to help you with it.

For now, let’s move on…

Professional traders don’t focus on their results. Here’s what they do instead…

Let me ask you…

Have you ever seen the lifestyle of a professional bodybuilder?

Then let me share with you (and it’s not what you think)…

5:00 AM – Wake up

5:30 AM – Breakfast

7:00 AM – Lift weights

9:00 AM – Post workout meal

12:00 PM – Lunch

1:00 PM – Pre-workout meal

2:00 PM – Reflect and work on weaker body parts

4:00 PM – Post workout meal

6:00 PM – Dinner

8:00 PM – Cardio and stretching

9:00 PM – Supper

10: 00 – Bedtime

Now you might be wondering:

“Why am I sharing this with you?”

Simple.

Professional bodybuilders focus on the PROCESS, not the results — and it’s the same for traders!

The result is a byproduct of the process you follow.

But don’t get me wrong.

The results matter.

BUT, you can’t improve what you’re doing by watching your results.

You only improve by tweaking and improving your existing process — and that’s how winning is done!

You’re wondering:

“So, what’s the process I should use?”

Don’t worry, I’ll talk about it later.

But for now, are you beginning to see how professional traders really work?

Next…

Professional traders know how much they can make, realistically

Here’s the thing:

Many new traders are lured into this industry with the promise of HUGE riches (with minimal time and effort).

Like taking a $1000 and magically transforming it into a seven-figure account within a few short years.

Well, I hate to burst your bubble but it’s not going to happen.

The best in the industry average about 20% a year — over the long run.

In the image below, you can see Warren Buffet’s average return is 14% more than the S&P 500 (over the last 55 years).

Source: Excess Returns: A comparative study of the methods of the world’s greatest investors

So, you’re probably wondering:

“If the best fund manager makes an average of 20%, then how much can a retail trader (like me) expect to make?”

It depends.

I know you dislike that answer but it’s the truth.

Because it depends on your risk management, timeframe, and strategy. There’s no one size fits all.

If you want more details on it, then go read this article: How much can you REALLY make from trading?

Now some of you might think…

“But day trading is different, you can make more than just 20% a year”

That’s true, but it’s not the complete picture.

Because here’s what you must know…

What trading gurus never tell you about day trading

• Day trading is not scalable
• Day trading has very high opportunity cost
• Day trading makes you a slave to the markets

Let me explain…

Day trading is not scalable

Okay, perhaps you’re a consistently profitable day trader.

But here’s the thing:

As your fund size increases, your % returns will decrease.

Why?

Because you’re trading larger and you start “moving” the markets. This means you can’t enter and exit your trades without suffering slippage.

For most markets, you can day trade with a 5, 6 or even 7-figure accounts.

But anything larger, you start becoming the market and your returns are greatly diminished.

Day trading has high opportunity cost

Imagine:

You’re earning $50,000 per year and you quit your job to become a day trader.

In your first year of trading, you earn $20,000.

That’s good news, right? WRONG.

Because that’s an opportunity cost of $30,000 had you stayed in the workforce.

And let’s be honest here.

Chances are, you won’t make money in your early years of trading so the opportunity is much higher than that.

Day trading makes you a slave to the markets

As a day trader, you can expect to work 12 – 16 hours a day.

Here’s the breakdown:

2 hours – Do your homework before the market opens

8 hours – Trade the session

2 hours – Trade review and journaling

Now, this is fine if you’re young in your 20s or 30s.

But what if you’re married? You have a family? Or you’re in your 60s?

Now…

If you still decide to pursue day trading, here are some tips to help you move:

• Set aside 24 months of living expenses that don’t involve your trading capital
• Trading is a business a business. And when you’re in business, don’t expect to make money in the early years
• Keep as much trading profits as you can because you don’t know when your next drawdown will come
• Know when to call it quits: If you’ve not met your expectations by a certain time, call it quits and move on (there’s no shame as you’ve given your best)

Moving on:

In the next section, you’ll discover the ONE thing professional traders protect at all cost – and it’s even more important than their trading capital…

The ONE thing that’s more important than your trading capital — and all professional traders have it

Here’s the deal:

When you blow up your trading account, it’s not the end because you can still top it up with “new” money (and start over again).

But…

When you lose your mental capital — it’s over.

You might be wondering:

“What is mental capital?”

Mental capital is the drive, the “fight”, and the determination you have to undertake your trading endeavor.

For example:

When you’re in a drawdown, it’s your mental capital that helps you stick to your trading rules so you can play out your edge in the long run.

When your trading strategy doesn’t have an edge, it’s your mental capital that drives you to seek more knowledge.

When you have a bad trading day, it’s your mental capital that tells you everything is alright and you’ll come back stronger the next day.

Now you might be thinking:

“If mental capital is so important, then why do traders lose it?”

That’s a good question.

From what I’ve seen, most traders lose their mental capital in 1 of 2 ways:

1. You have the fear of losing and you are afraid to put on the next trade
2. You have zero confidence in your trading strategy and yourself

Let me explain…

You have the fear of losing and it makes you afraid to put on another trade

Now, why does this happen?

Because you risk too much on one trade. And when it went against you, you lost a huge chunk of capital — or even your entire trading account.

This makes you afraid to put on the next trade as you fear it might happen again.

But here’s the good news.

It’s easy to fix this problem.

All you need to do is, apply proper risk management and this issue will melt away.

You have zero confidence in your trading strategy and yourself

This issue affects traders who have been trading for a few years (or even a long time).

You try out the different trading strategies and systems, but you’re still losing consistently or breakeven at best.

That’s because you don’t have a process to follow and you’re hopping like a bunny for the latest trading systems.

So, what’s the solution?

You need a proven trading method that guides your trading so you can constantly improve your trading and become a consistently profitable trader.

Do you want to learn more?

Then read on…

How to become a professional trader using the “IDERR” method

You’re wondering:

“What is IDERR?”

I’ll explain…

I – Identify your trading methodology

There are so many types of trading strategies out there. Which will you choose?

Position trading?

Swing trading?

Day trading?

Scalping?

So here’s what I suggest…

Go read Market Wizards (by Jack Schwager) and these recommended trading books.

You’ll be exposed to different trading styles by successful traders, and learn the essentials of what it takes to be a consistently profitable trader.

Once you find a trading style that resonates with you, go all out and learn everything you can about it. (Let’s assume you want to be a successful swing trader).

Here’s how…

Books – Go to Amazon, and read books on “Swing trading”. I would suggest sticking to trading books with 4 stars or higher

YouTube – Watch videos on swing trading and look for those with high rating

Google – You can always find hidden gems here. Search for topics on “swing trading” and you’ll be amazed at the wealth of information available

As you acquire trading knowledge, I would encourage you to write it down, or save it in a word document.

This is to track what you’ve learned and to find out “the stuff” that makes sense to you.

D – Develop your trading plan

So, you’ve done your research and have attained a wealth of knowledge.

Next, you want to use your new found knowledge and develop it into a trading plan (a set of rules that details how you’ll trade the markets).

And here are 7 questions your trading plan must answer…

1. What is your time frame?

You must define the time frames you’re trading. If you’re a swing trader, then you’ll probably be trading the 4 hour or daily time frames.

2. What markets are you trading?

You must state which markets you’ll be trading. It could be equities, forex, futures etc.

3. How much are you risking on each trade?

This boils down to risk management. You must know how much you’re prepared to lose on a single trade.

For starters, I would suggest no more than 1%. This means if you have a $10,000 account, you cannot lose more than $100 on each trade.

4. What are the conditions of your trading setup?

You must know the requirements of your trading setup. Whether you’ll trade with the trend, within a range, or both (For starters I would suggest trading with the trend).

5. How will you enter your trade?

You could enter on a pullback or breakout.

Will it be a limit, stop or market order?

6. Where is your stop loss?

No professional trader would enter a trade without a stop loss. The first thing you must ask yourself is, “where will I get out if I’m wrong?”

7. How will you exit your winners?

And if the price moves in your favor, you must know where to take your profits.

Disclaimer: Below is a sample trading plan I came up with randomly, please do your own due diligence.

Sample trading plan

I’ll be using the IF-THEN syntax in my trading plan.

Example:

If I’m a boy, then I’ll wear pants.

If I’m a girl, then I’ll wear a skirt.

If I’m not a boy or a girl, then I’ll be naked.

You get my point.

Let’s begin…

If I am trading, then I will only trade EURUSD and AUDUSD. (The markets you are trading)

If I’m trading currencies, then I’ll focus on the daily charts (Timeframe traded)

If I place a trade, then I will not lose more than 1% of my account. (Your risk management)

If the price is above 200 EMA on daily, then the trend is bullish. (Conditions before entering a trade and time frame you are trading)

If the trend is bullish, then identify an area of support where price could retrace to. (Conditions before entering a trade)

If price retrace to your area of support, then wait for a higher close. (Conditions before entering a trade)

If price closes higher, then enter long at next candle open. (Entry)

If you’re long, then place your stop loss below the low of the candle, and take profit at swing high. (Exit when you’re wrong, and when you’re right)

Next…

E – Execute your trades consistently

Once you’ve completed your trading plan, it’s time to take it to the markets.

I would suggest starting really small on a live account because you’re going to suck really bad (for a start at least).

And if that’s the case, why not pay lesser in “tuition fees”, to Mr. Market?

Now…

When you execute your trades, 1 of 5 things can happen.

1. Break even
2. A small win
3. A big win
4. A small loss
5. A big loss

If you eliminate #5, you are much closer to being a profitable trader.

Now…

You must execute your trades consistently according to your trading plan.

Because if you’re entering trades based on how you feel instead of following your plan, then it would be impossible to tell whether your strategy has an “edge” in the markets.

Second…

You cannot change your trading plan after a few losing trades. Even though I know you’re tempted to do so.

Why?

Because in the short run, your trading results are random. And eventually, it’ll be closer towards its expected value.

This means you should have at least 100 trades before coming up with a conclusion whether your trading plan works, or not.

R – Record trades

Simply executing your trades isn’t enough.

Because the only metric you get is your P&L. This doesn’t help improve your trading, except knowing whether you’re making money, or not.

Here are the metrics you should record:

Date – Date you entered your trade

Time Frame – Time frame you entered on

Setup – Trading setup that triggers your entry

Market – Markets you’re trading

Lot size – Size of your position

Long/Short – Direction of your trade

Tick value – Value per tick

Price in – Price you entered

Price out – Price you exited

Stop loss – Price where you’ll exit when you’re wrong

Profit & Loss in $ – Profit or loss from this trade

Initial risk in $ – Nominal amount you’re risking

R – Your initial risk on the trade, in terms of R. If you made two times your risk, you made 2R.

An example below:

R – Review your trades

Once you’ve executed 100 trades consistently, you can review whether your trading strategy has an edge in the markets.

To do so, you need to use the expectancy formula below:

Expectancy = (Winning % * Average win) – (Losing % * Average loss) – (Commission + Slippage)

If you have a positive expectancy, congratulations! It is likely that your trading strategy has an “edge” in the markets.

But what if it’s a negative expectancy?

Here’re a few things you can look at to fix your trading strategy…

Trade with the trend

By trading with the trend, you’ll trade along the path of least resistance which will improve your performance.

Set a proper stop loss

You want to set your stop loss based on the structure of the markets and not the dollar amount you’re willing to risk.

Remove large losses

You can do this by risking no more than 1% on each trade. If you’re not sure how to do it, go read this post on risk management and position sizing.

Identify patterns

You want to identify patterns that lead to your winners and focus on these profitable setups.

Likewise, identify patterns that lead to your losers and avoid trading these setups.

Conclusion

I know I’ve shared a lot about how you can become a professional trader.

So, take your time to digest the materials and review them again.

And here’s a recap of what you’ve learned:

• You don’t have to work for a bank, hedge fund, or institution to become a professional trader.
• Professional trading is a mindset, not a title
• A professional trader focus on the PROCESS, not the results
• A professional trader knows how much he can make realistically without blowing his account up
• A professional trader protect his mental capital at all cost
• The IDERR method that helps you become professional trader