Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Interview With Jun Hao Of The Asia Report Blog

hursday, July 24, 2014


This is my 17th interview of the "Interview With Fellow Investors" blog series and I am really happy to be able to continue learning and writing about the peer investors here. I hope to reach out to more peer investors and accumulate as many interviews as possible. 

My next interviewee is Jun Hao, I think he is in his mid 20s now (if my math did not fail me), the amazing thing is that he just started investing about 4 years ago but already overseeing over $3.95 millions in assets. Phew!

Without further ado, let's keep reading to get to know Jun Hao better.. 

Q1 : Can you give us a brief introduction about yourself?
I am the co-founder and managing partner of private family office, overseeing slightly under S$4 million in assets. I publicly tracked my US portfolio on my first blog, Quantitative Value , which was started back in late 2010. Over the past 2.75 years, the US portfolio compounded at a annual rate of 27.23%. That’s a cumulative return of 93.93%.

I just started up The Asia Report in early July. The main goal is to share the investing wisdom of the investing greats from around the world with people, and to apply it in a local setting. As the saying goes, the more things change, the more the same. 

The only way for investors to make well informed decisions is through continued education, and I hope to bridge that gap by introducing them to some of the most successful and prolific investors of our time.

Q2 : Are you a full-time or part-time investor at the moment?
Full time investor.

Q3 : When (at what age) did you start investing in shares and who has influenced you the most?
I started investing at 20, and I would say that Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham had the most influence on me.

My first experience with investing was from reading Snowball, Warren’s Buffett biography. That gave me a really solid foundation to work from, and I knew from Buffett’s experiences that value investing works. I found myself adopting many of their frameworks, and that prevented me from making big mistakes over the course of my journey.

Q4 : Do you view yourself as long-term (holding shares in years), short-term investor (holding shares in days/months) or mixture?
Definitely long term. However, I am flexible. If a share revalues to our estimated intrinsic value, I won’t hesitate to sell.

Q5 : What is your basis of selecting the shares to invest (e.g. basing on fundamental analysis, technical analysis or other methods/sources [share a little bit more details if it is the latter])?
Fundamental analysis. I normally screen for companies first based on the normal “value” metrics like low P/E, low P/B etc. 

That normally give quite a number of companies to work with. I normally than proceed to look into the specifics of the company, identifying ones that feel comfortable with.

That’s only part of the process. I spend a lot of time reading industry books, keeping up with various news sources like the WSJ & Bloomberg Businessweek. It’s a continual learning process. That helps me expand my circle of competence.

Q6 : What is your targeted and achieved annual rate of returns (%) so far? 
My targeted rate of returns :15%
My achieved rate of returns : 16% onwards

Q7 : What is your most recommended online investing resource (site or blog) to share with our readers? 
Nextinsight is great for news on listed companies in Singapore. If you’re looking for some of the best curated wisdom on value investing, valueinvestingworld.com is great resource.

I am also working on The Asia Report, which hopes to bring the teachings of the investing greats around the world, applied in our local markets.

Q8 : Besides shares, what other investment are you involved in (e.g. Real Estates, Bonds or REITs etc)?
Running my own business is my other focus. I am not involved in other investments like real estate, bonds or REITs at the moment.

Q9 : What is your current Shares Investment portfolio size (in range, no need specific)? 
My personal account is in the mid 6 figures range. They are distributed among Singapore and Hong Kong at this point of time.

Q10 : If the readers what to get in touch with you, how to get hold of you? (Sharing of your website/blog/social media profile etc..)
Check out The Asia Report. There’s a contact me box there, along with links to my LinkedIn page.

By the way, if you are a retail investor and would like to be featured in my "Interview With The Fellow Investors" blog series, please feel free to email me at investopenly@gmail.com

Also, for the complete list of my interviewees and their posts, check it out here.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

The One Thing You Should Invest In That Will Greatly Boost Your Income Potential

Money and success aren’t everything right? Well, that’s only true for two types of people – those who worked hard enough to achieve both, and those who grew up privileged enough to get a hard start towards attaining both.

The reality of living in Singapore is that most of us have to workincredibly hard to get even the smallest rewards – such as a 5% raise, promotion, or even a simple word of thanks.

We’re all working our asses off to earn a little more each year, save up more each year, and (hopefully) invest more each year towards eventual retirement.

However, there’s one investment that can help you achieve more money and success faster than any blue chip on the market – yourself.

Why Aren’t You Investing in Your Most Powerful Asset?

No, I’m not joking. You really should invest more in yourself – that is, your professional development. Think about it, the most important asset you possess that can directly impact your earning potential and future success is YOU.

You should invest in improving your skills, knowledge, and experience. And like most other investments, the sooner you start, the bigger the rewards will be down the road.

Remember – you can’t work forever. The number of years you can work is limited to 30-45 years, depending on your profession. That might sounds like a long time, but it really isn’t.

So start now by investing a portion of your annual salary towards accelerating your professional development.

How Much Should You Invest Each Year?

This is a question that has no straight answer. Your profession, financial liabilities, and family obligations ALL factor into how much you can set aside towards personal “investment.”

However, at the very least, you should invest about 2%-5% of your annual salary into your professional development.

So if you’re making $36,000 a year, here’s how that’ll stack up:
2% = $60 monthly/ $720 annually
3% = $90 monthly/ $1,080 annually
4% = $120 monthly/ $1,440 annually
5% = $150 monthly/ $1,800 annually

Believe it or not, even $60 a month is enough to make a difference in your professional development.

Of course, the more you invest in yourself, the greater the “return” will be – but unlike most investments that require no action on your part, investing in yourself will require both money ANDhard work.

If you think the monthly cost to invest in yourself is too steep – you might want to read our article on how to cut your monthly expenses so you CAN free up the cash to do so.

What Should You Invest in Each Year?

If you’re lucky enough to have an employer that looks after your professional development and constantly supplies you with the latest skills because it wants to groom you for promotion – that’s great!

However, for the 95% of us who aren’t working for such employers, the reality is that professional development isn’t something that a company is willing to spend on. That means the responsibility for your career progression fall on… you.

So instead of waiting or hoping for your employer to invest in your professional development, take the initiative and do it yourself!

Here are 3 ways you can invest in your skills and knowledge:
Hone Your Strengths: Some people know their key strengths are early in life while others discover their key strengths after a few years in the working world. Regardless of which category you’re in, you absolutely must hone your strengths. You can do this by investing in courses or seminars that’ll help you enhance your key strengths.
Always Be Learning: Never assume that you know everything there is to know about your job or industry. The truth is that today’s knowledge is tomorrow’s old news. You should always be learning. If there’s a new book or online industry training platform out there that’ll give you the knowledge you need to get ahead of the competition, invest in it.
Build Positive Connections: Learning can come from plenty of places such as books, courses, and your workplace mistakes. However, you can develop your professional skills and knowledge by building positive connections with senior colleagues, other professionals in your field, and best of all – a mentor who can help you chart a successful career path.

If you’re on a seriously tight budget and can’t afford to invest a whole lot into your professional development, take time to read our article on 3 Ways to Upgrade Your Professional Skills without Setting Foot in a Classroom.

Six Elements Of Mental Toughness

The business world just keeps getting more complex. Indeed, a recent study by IBM of 1,500 global chief executives (Capitalizing on Complexity)indicated that they felt the greatest issue facing them was the escalation of complexity.
Complexity and turbulence in the business environment may be here to stay, but they present opportunities as well as challenges for leaders. As a business school dean, I run a more than $80 million business in an increasingly competitive marketplace. With over 33,000 stakeholders, I know the pressure isn’t going away, and so do other leaders in my organization. More likely, it will intensify. Still, I say, “Bring it on!”
Let me explain.
My son plays soccer in a competitive league. He practices three days a week and trains in specific skills with his coach. Also, he and I train together. Not only do we run sprints and engage in long bike rides to build speed, endurance and strength, we also work on the mental game associated with playing competitive sports.
Research and common sense tell us that top competitive athletes succeed because of their physical talents and their dedication to training. However, they also succeed because of their dexterity in dealing with the psychological pressures of a sport. In short, mental toughness and resilience are tremendously important for any athlete aiming to be the best in a sport.
As a result, many athletes engage in training their psychological readiness. At the root of mental training in sports is this question: Are you mentally tough enough to compete?
It is not simply a matter of my son’s knowledge, ability and skill in soccer. It is also his psychological preparedness for the game, including skill in dealing with the stress of strong competition, recovering from mistakes and failure quickly, determining strategies to tackle tough situations, adjusting with each circumstance and game, collaborating with a team, celebrating successes but not becoming overconfident and keeping positive before, during and after the game.
Using research and literature from sports psychology, such as James Loehr’sThe New Toughness Training for Sports, my son and I actively work each week on his mental game. When we do so, I recognize dramatic similarities to conversations that I have with business executives.
Many have shared with me that their companies have taken a brutal pounding for the last two years, and even those who have had some success are citing fatigue in this new complex game of business. But, just as with athletes, they don’t rely only on knowledge, skills, ability or past success to traverse difficult situations. They draw on an attitude, a toughness that allows them to push through hard situations and face adversity with confidence. As businesses look to the future, their top people need to think about whether they have game-ready leaders who not only have technical skills in business but mental toughness as well.

There are at least six markers of mental toughness from sports psychology that apply equally well to business situations. As with athletes, business leaders need to ask, am I mentally tough enough to compete?
1. Flexibility. Game-ready leaders have the ability to absorb the unexpected and remain supple and non-defensive. They maintain humor even when the situation becomes tough. If something isn’t going well or doesn’t turn out as expected, they remain flexible in their approach and look for new ways to solve the problem. Just like a quarterback faced with a broken play, a leader may have to decide quickly on a different way to get the ball down the field.
Also, leaders must continually be open to re-educating themselves, even in the basics, which they may have taken for granted for too long. They need to exercise caution in defensively falling back on ideas they know and are comfortable with rather than looking for new ways of doing business.
2. Responsiveness. Game-ready leaders are able to remain engaged, alive and connected with a situation when under pressure. They are constantly identifying the opportunities, challenges, and threats in the environment. They understand that they need to think differently about how their environment and business operate.
The problems we encounter now are messier and more complicated than ever before. They often can’t be solved in the ways others were. Game-ready leaders look for new ways to think about these problems and, more important, look for fresh ways out of these problems. They have a sense of urgency about responding to the changing face of business.
Just as a coach may change strategies at halftime in response to the way a game is going based on the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses, game-ready leaders in business must respond to changes in the environment and the players.
We must pay close attention to and understand global, national, regional and local economic trends, market trends, consumer trends, industry trends and competitor responses. Relying on old assumptions about how business operates and assuming that last year’s trends still hold today is dangerous. Leaders make decisions and act based on up-to-the-minute and in-depth knowledge of what is really going on in business now.
3. Strength. Game-ready leaders are able to exert and resist great force when under pressure and to keep going against insurmountable odds. They find the strength to dig deep and garner the resolve to keep going, even when in a seemingly losing game. They focus on giving their best and fighting hard until the end, with persistent intensity throughout the game.
The story of Team Hoyt, Dick and Rick, is an inspirational example of drawing on both inner and physical strength. Rick was born in 1962 to Dick and Judy Hoyt and was diagnosed as a spastic quadriplegic with cerebral palsy. His parents were advised to institutionalize him because”there was no chance of him recovering, and little hope for Rick to live a ‘normal’ life. This was just the beginning of Dick and Judy’s quest for Rick’s inclusion in community, sports, education, and one day, the workplace. In the spring of 1977, Rick told his father that he wanted to participate in a 5-mile benefit run for a lacrosse player who had been paralyzed in an accident. Far from being a long-distance runner, Dick agreed to push Rick in his wheelchair, and they finished all 5 miles, coming in next to last. That night, Rick told his father, ‘Dad, when I’m running, it feels like I’m not handicapped.’ At that moment, they formed Team Hoyt and have run many races together with now impressive times. The 2009 Boston Marathon was officially Team Hoyt’s 1,000th race.” (Adapted from the Team Hoyt website.)

Just as athletes dig deep to find the physical and psychological strength to continue through adverse and tough situations, game-ready business leaders must exhibit the same strength. As James Loehr puts it, top athletes think, “While this is tough, I am a whole lot tougher.” Game-ready business leaders bring the same intensity, through all the continual pounding.
4. Courage and ethics. Game-ready leaders do the right thing for the organization and the team. They suppress the temptation to cut corners or to undermine others so they come out on top. They have the courage to make the hard but right decisions for the organization.
A famous story I share with my son as an example of courage and ethics in sports is that of the tennis player Andy Roddick. In 2008 Roddick was the No. 1 seed at the Rome Masters. He was at match point and about to win. The umpire called his opponent for a double-fault serve. Walking to shake his opponent’s hand, Roddick noticed a ball mark on the clay–in bounds. Roddick got the umpire’s attention and pointed out that the ball had nicked the line but was in fact in bounds. The match continued. Roddick went on to lose the match, and his beyond-the-call-of-duty honesty made him famous as an upstanding person, an opponent who would do the right thing. Game-ready leaders in business do the same. PepsiCo provides a great business example of this. A disgruntled Coca-Cola employee and two other individuals attempted to sell proprietary information to Pepsi. Pepsi received a package containing a sample of a new Coke product and other information. Pepsi immediately informed Coke, which contacted the FBI. Game-ready business leaders ultimately win by making the right and courageous decisions.
5. Resiliency. Game-ready leaders rebound from disappointments, mistakes and missed opportunities and get right back in the game. They have a hardiness for enduring the downs of a situation. They remain optimistic in the face of adversity and quickly change when necessary.They resolve to make things better and are experts at figuring out ways to do more with fewer resources. How about the resiliency of Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga, who was just one out away from pitching a perfect game when Jim Joyce, the first-base umpire, called a runner safe who was indeed out? Joyce had made an error. Galarraga was certainly deeply disappointed, but he continued to pitch and get the next batter out. Afterward, Joyce admitted the error and apologized. Galarraga shrugged it off, saying, “Everyone makes mistakes.”
6. Sportsmanship. Game-ready leaders exhibit sportsmanship. They don’t let the opponent know when he or she has gotten them down. “Chin up,” I say to my son. Clearly we all experience disappointment, attacks from others, an occasional blow to the stomach. However, the behavior exhibited by game-ready leaders after losing or being attacked by others or the situation sets the tone for the rest of an organization. Additionally, top athletes support their teammates and their roles. If teammates start competing with and attacking one another, it is definitely difficult to win.
Living in Denver, I follow the Denver Broncos. Kyle Orton has done an outstanding job of displaying sportsmanship while under public scrutiny. Brought to the Broncos last year, he has been the subject of constant press speculation about possibly being replaced. The drafting of Tim Tebow brought on another press outcry, that Kyle was out and Tim was in. Kyle handled it with grace and dignity. Putting his mind to the game and the team, he got on the field and simply practiced hard, welcoming his new teammate. In the face of even internal competition, Kyle Orton exhibits the mentality of “Bring it on!”
We all need these same markers of toughness to succeed and lead in today’s business environment. We cannot succeed on technical skill alone. Companies have tough questions and situations to address. Game-ready leaders go into today’s business environment with their best mental game and with the attitude of “Bring it on!” After all, who doesn’t love the challenge and fun of a demanding, complex game?

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Acid Reflux and Tea



We have all heard many wonderful claims on the health benefits of tea ranging from weight loss to cancer prevention and all points in between. I don’t have a clue if many of the claims can actually be backed up with evidence and it doesn’t really matter to me. What I do know is tea tastes good and I enjoy drinking it. I also know drinking tea can become a source of heartburn.

At one point, a few years ago, I thought I was going to have to give up drinking tea. It and dark colored colas were giving me a great deal of trouble with acid reflux. Rather than giving up, I decided to fight back. Following is my experience and what worked for me. It might work for you as well.

My wife has to avoid caffeine from all sources because it amplifies acid reflux in her system. This is apparently a concern for many people. Caffeine does not seem to affect me in this manner. It is not the source of my tea or soda drinking reflux. If caffeine is the source of your problem, the simple answer is obvious - switch to decaf. You have my sympathies.

The problem for me with dark colored sodas, Diet Coke being personally the worst offender, may be due to the acid or the dyes but I am sure it is not the caffeine. I know this because Mountain Dew has more octane than Diet Coke and yet it never gives me heartburn. I can chug it all day long and it doesn’t affect me doesn’t affect me doesn’t affect me (silliness intended). Today, dark soda will still light me up on occasion, even with limiting my use of it.

I also learned, through experience, that if I overdo black teas, for any length of time, I will suffer heartburn. The problem first began years ago with Bigelow Earl Grey. Back in the day when Bigelow came in generous 2g bags, I was drinking this tea by the pot full on a daily basis. Apparently I was enjoying this tea way too much. The problem was not with Bigelow. It was with me having no self-control.

In addition to the heartburn, I developed some urinary tract issues (sorry for sharing, but it is part of the story). In all fairness, a narrowing of the tube leading from a kidney to the bladder exacerbated the latter – I didn’t know that at the time. Bigelow uses actual oil of bergamot in their Earl Grey. Real oil of bergamot tastes really good. The bergamot forms an oily film on top of the tea. It appears drinking such large quantities also caused the oil to build up in my system.

I knew it would be best if I only occasionally drank tea with the actual oil of bergamot. The trouble being I was an Earl Grey addict. How was this junkie supposed to get his daily fix? The solution was pretty simple. I switched to Twinings Earl Grey. It is a bergamot-flavored tea. The hope was to eliminate the tea drinking related problems. It did relieve the kidney issue but did not stop the acid reflux. See, I told you it wasn’t Bigelow’s fault.

Not being willing to give up Earl Grey, I decided to switch to Twinings Earl Grey Green tea. With this simple change my reflux problems disappeared completely. I could now drink tea by the pot full once again. If your tea addiction is causing you pain, try making the green tea switch. It is of interest to note green tea is lower in caffeine than black tea. If your reflux is sensitive to caffeine you might still benefit from changing to green tea.

I was fearful that changing would be difficult, as at the time I thought I wouldn’t like green tea. What helped was to accept green tea is not black tea. They do not taste alike and they never will. I adopted an attitude of learning to appreciate the difference.

I also quickly discovered not all green teas are the same. There is a wide range of flavorful difference. Of course I got lucky that one of my first green teas was one I actually did enjoy. So when I could no longer find my Twinings Earl Grey Green I was heartbroken but determined I would find another tea. I did. I now drink Ahmad Earl Grey Green, which I like even better.

I buy the Ahmad by the case, as it is my absolute favorite tea. Even so we all need a little variety once in a while. What I discovered is now that my system has recovered from the abuse I had given it, I can drink black tea once again in moderation, even Bigelow Earl Grey. I can even occasionally drink it in excess without trouble. I just no longer make a daily habit of doing so.

I always keep 6 or 7 teas I really like around as my go to teas for daily consumption. In addition there is always a stack of various teas around for occasional use and while looking for that ever elusive next favorite. I enjoy several cups a day and cannot recall the last time I had heartburn from tea. If you are contemplating giving up tea, try shaking things up a bit first. Maybe, like me, by adjusting your habits just a little, you too can conquer tea related acid reflux. Today, I am drinking a larger variety and greater quantity of tea than ever before, and all pain free!

Update!

Since publishing this article I discovered some interesting thoughts by others that inspired me to go a little further here. As mentioned early in the article caffeine can be a big source of the problem for many folks. Decaf tea is one option but who wants to do that without a fight? Green tea, as mentioned is an option. White tea is another. Made from young leaves and buds it does not contain the high levels of tannin found in other teas. As I understand it, tannin is the main source of the heartburn. White tea is a lot closer to black tea in taste than green so it would be a really good starting point. Both types have less caffeine than black teas.

A likely source of your reflux problem may be the way you are brewing your bagged tea. The label usually says something like steep for 2-4 minutes. How long do you leave the bag in the cup? Let’s be honest, most people leave the bag in the cup until they finish it. Right? Removing the tea bag at the proper time may solve your problem. It is highly possible this was a big part of my own recovery.

If you routinely sqeeze the bag to get every last drop of tea, you may actually be aggravating the problem. I know how hard it is not to squeeze, but by doing so you are releasing even more reflux causing oil and tannin into the cup. I understand you feel wastfull if you don't squeeze so try removing the bag and squeezing it over another cup. Once you realize how little tea is actually being held hostage by the bag you may find it easier to stop.

According to the loose-leaf crowd, the source of the problem is that you are using the bag in the first place. The problem, they say, is the tiny pieces of leaf usually found in the bag releases far more tannin into the brew than does whole leaf tea. Tannin makes tea bitter and can cause the acid in the stomach to be released into the esophagus. My personal experience and opinion is this problem is greatly reduced if you simply follow the steeping time on the bag as just mentioned. Remember, because it uses smaller pieces of leaf, bag tea does not take as long to reach full strength as does loose leaf. Of course attempting to resolve your acid reflux may just be the motivation needed to inspire you to see if the art of brewing with loose-leaf tea is for you. Good luck!

The Best Drinks for Acid Reflux

There’s a long list of things you shouldn’t drink if you suffer from acid reflux or heartburn: orange juice, hot chocolate, carbonated beverages, lemonade, anything with mint and any bottled drinks with added acid. Water is really the best thing for people with reflux to drink, along with low-fat milk.

You may know that I have been undergoing treatment for acid reflux for about two months, under the supervision of Dr. Jamie Koufman at The Voice Institute of New York. Dr. Koufman is one of the authors of Dropping Acid: The Reflux Diet Cookbook & Cure. I’m a big lover of tea, and I was happy to hear that there are still several varieties of teas that don’t trigger acid reflux. Some doctors might recommend that patients stay away from caffeine altogether, but Dr. Koufman says that a cup of tea (black, green or white) or coffee with milk per day is fine. It’s the people who drink “a fishbowl” of coffee each day who have a problem. Herbal teas like chamomile and rooibos are good, but any fruit-infused teas will be too acidic.

Ginger is also good for people with reflux, so I like to make a simple tisane with fresh ginger. Boil a tablespoon of freshly chopped ginger for about two minutes, and sweeten with honey or sugar. Use less ginger for a milder flavor.

Homemade smoothies with low-acidity fruits and low-fat dairy are also a great option. You can make a simple smoothie by freezing a banana (be sure to peel it first), and sticking it in the blender with some milk–no ice needed.

Dr. Koufman’s team tested the acidity of many different beverages, to better help patients know what they can and can’t drink. They found that coconut water, without added flavors, is also good for people with reflux, as is Vanilla and Strawberry N Cream Slim-Fast. For more information about what to drink if you have you have acid reflux and for Dr. Koufman’s complete list of reflux-friendly drinks, check out the Reflux Cookbook Blog here.

Foods That Fight Heartburn

You've heard about the foods that can make your heartburn worse, from coffee to chocolate to tomatoes. But what about foods that could make your heartburn better? Check out some key eats you should add to your diet.

Eat More Low-Acid Foods

When acid and other liquids in your stomach back up into your esophagus, you get heartburn. The acid that's already in your stomach isn't the only problem, though.
The natural acids in foods you eat -- like many fruits, vegetables, and drinks -- play a role, too, says Bani Roland, MD. She is a gastroenterologist and assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University. To curb heartburn, build your meals around naturally low-acid foods like:
  • Melons and bananas. While most fruits have a high acid content, these don't. Bananas are always handy as a snack food. All sorts of melons are good, like watermelon, cantaloupe, and honeydew.
  • Oatmeal. It's a great way to start your day. Oatmeal doesn't cause reflux, it's filling, and it has lots of healthy fiber.
  • Bread. Choose whole-grain -- it will be the first ingredient on the label -- which is made with unprocessed grains. Other healthy-sounding breads -- like wheat, whole-wheat, or 7-grain -- may be made with refined grains, which are stripped of natural fiber, vitamins, and other nutrients.    
  • Rice and couscous. These healthy complex carbs are great if you have reflux. When choosing rice, go for brown rice, which has more fiber.
  • Green veggies. Broccoli, asparagus, green beans, celery, and cauliflower are all low in acid.
  • Lean poultry and meats. Prepare chicken and turkey grilled, broiled, baked, or steamed. Just remove the skin -- and don't fry it, Roland says. Even ground beef and steak can be fine, as long as they're lean.
  • Potatoes. Other root vegetables are good, too -- just not onions.
  • Fish. Grilled, poached, and baked fish are all good choices. Just don't fry it or use fatty sauces.  
  • Egg whites. They're a good source of protein and are low in acid. Just skip the yolk, which is more likely to cause symptoms.
You can't tell how acidic a food is by looking at it. It's not on the nutrition label either. But you can research a food's pH, which is a score of its acid content. The lower the pH number, the higher the acid -- lemon juice has a pH of 2.0. If you aim for foods with a pH of 5 or above, you may have fewer symptoms. You can find the pH level of foods on some government sites and in low-acid diet cookbooks.

More Foods to Soothe Heartburn

Other foods and herbs have long been treatments for reflux and upset stomach. But keep in mind that while they may provide relief for some, "they won't work for everyone," says gastroenterologist Jay Kuemmerle, MD, of Virginia Commonwealth University. You might want to try:
  • Fennel. This crunchy vegetable with a licorice flavor makes a great addition to salads. There's some evidence that fennel can improve your digestion. It has a pH of 6.9, so it's low in acid, too.
  • Ginger. A long-standing natural treatment for upset stomach, ginger does seem to have benefits for reflux.
  • Parsley. That sprig of parsley on your plate isn't only for decoration. Parsley has been a traditional treatment for upset stomach for hundreds of years. And there's some evidence that it can help with acid reflux.
  • Aloe vera. This is another old treatment for GI problems that seems to help with reflux. You can buy aloe vera as a plant or as a supplement -- in capsules, juices, and other forms. It works as a thickener in recipes.Just make sure it’s free of anthraquinones (primarily the compound aloin), which can be irritating to the digestive system.

    Fight Heartburn With Healthy Food

    Add the right foods to your diet. They could really help with your heartburn. But there are limits to what they can do.
    Remember that good foods can't counteract the effects of trigger foods. "Eating a little ginger won't stop you from getting heartburn after a big dinner of a fatty steak, a salad with tomatoes, a couple of glasses of wine, and a coffee," Kuemmerle says.
    And while eating a low-acid diet is a good strategy, it may not be enough on its own. For some people it's not so much the acids in the stomach, but the reflux of other stuff in gastric juices -- like bile -- that trigger heartburn, he says.
    "The specific causes of heartburn vary a lot from person to person," Kuemmerle says. "That's why treatment always needs a personalized approach."

Safe Foods for Heartburn Sufferers

Certain foods can aggravate your heartburn symptoms, and when planning your acid reflux diet, it's best to limit or avoid completely those foods and drinks that result in heartburn. There are some foods that have little or no potential for causing heartburn.
The foods listed in the Table below are the most common foods that are usually pretty safe for heartburn sufferers to eat.
For a listing of foods that you may be able to enjoy occasionally, please check out the table for foods that can be Consumed With Discretion. For a listing of foods that probably should be limited, as they are usually responsible for a higher occurrence of heartburn, please check out the table for Foods To Be Limited.
This is by no means a complete list, and in your personal situation, you may either find you can eat the foods from the "Avoid" group with no problem or have problems with foods not listed. It is a good idea to keep a Food Diary. For approximately two weeks, write down what you eat, when you eat and any symptoms you may experience. This will help you and your doctor plan your diet and decide on any change in eating habits you may need.
Safe Foods for the Acid Reflux Diet
Food GroupFoods With Little Potential to Cause Heartburn
Fruit• Apple, fresh
• Apple, dried
• Apple juice
• Banana
Vegetables• Baked potato
• Broccoli
• Cabbage
• Carrots
• Green beans
• Peas
Meat• Ground beef, extra-lean
• Steak, London Broil
• Chicken breast, skinless
• Egg whites
• Egg substitute
• Fish, no added fat
Dairy• Cheese, feta or goat
• Cream cheese, fat-free
• Sour cream, fat-free
• Soy cheese, low-fat
Grains• Bread, mult-grain or white
• Cereal, bran or oatmeal
• Corn bread
• Graham crakers
• Pretzels
• Rice, brown or white
• Rice cakes
Beverages• Mineral water
Fats / Oils• Salad dressing, low-fat
Sweets / Desserts• Cookie, fat-free
• Jelly beans
• Red licorice
• Potato chips, baked

9 Strategies to Reduce Acid Reflux Without Antacids

According to The New York Times, as many as four out of 10 Americans experience symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (a.k.a. GERD). Prescriptions drugs to reduce stomach acid (which causes heartburn) are the third highest selling prescription drugs - and that's without even taking into account all the over-the-counter medications!

So, what can you do in your daily life to reduce the need for prescription and over-the counter acid reflux treatments?

Here are my top 9 strategies to manage acid reflux the natural way:

1. Become Lean

As if you need another reason to ditch those frustrating extra pounds. A 2005 study of 453 Veterans Affairs employees published in The American Journal of Gastroenterology found that being "overweight or obese are strong independent risk factor[s] of GERD symptoms." A combo of lean protein, healthy fats, leafy and cruciferous veggies, and slow-release high-fiber starches at every meal helps stabilize blood sugar and optimize fat-burning hormones.

2. Minimize or Eliminate Problem Foods

Some foods, like tomatoes, get labeled as acid-reflux-causing foods just because they are acidic. However, there are only a few foods that have been scientifically proven to trigger acid reflux. They are: mint, chocolate, wine, alcohol, deep fried foods and coffee. These foods might affect each person differently, so if quitting all of them cold-turkey is not an option for you, you could try eliminating one at a time and keep tabs on your symptoms. That way, you'll be able to pinpoint the culprit(s) for you. Yes, some of these are my favorites too, but for relief, try to at least temporarily eliminate them.

3. Drink Enough Water at the Correct Times

"Some researchers theorize heartburn is a sign of an internal water shortage, especially dehydration in the upper part of the GI tract," says Dr. Jonny Bowden in his book "The Most Effective Natural Cures on Earth." Here's the thing: too much water during meals can further dilute your stomach acid, further contributing to insufficient protein breakdown. Go easy on liquid during meals; otherwise, drink up!

4. Dump the Processed Carbs

Several studies find reducing or eliminating sugar and other high-carbohydrate foods can relieve GERD. One study in the journal Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine found carbohydrates might contribute more to GERD than coffee or fat, and that a low-carbohydrate diet improves GERD. A later study in Digestive Diseases and Sciences also concluded a very low-carbohydrate diet could ameliorate this condition and its symptoms.

5. Go Gluten-Free

A study in the journal Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology found GERD symptoms were incredibly common among Celiac patients, and when they removed gluten they experienced "a rapid and persistent improvement in reflux symptoms." You're not off the hook if you don't have full-blown Celiac. According to Dr. James Braly, co-author of "Dangerous Grains: Why Gluten Cereal Grains May Be Hazardous To Your Health," about 30 percent of people of European ancestry carry predisposing genes to have some form of gluten sensitivity that isn't full-blown Celiac disease but creates many of the same symptoms including GERD.

6. Slow Down

A study in The American Journal of Gastroenterology found people who plow through their meals suffer more GERD. Easier said than done, but be mindful when you're eating. Slow down and enjoy your food. Remember it takes 20 minutes for your brain to the message you're full. Most people are on their second serving at that point. Plus, the added bonus is that you'll be less likely to overeat.

7. Take a Digestive Enzyme and Probiotic

Most people make less digestive enzymes and HCl as they grow older, and a supplemental comprehensive enzyme can improve digestion so protein and other foods more efficiently break down, making GERD and gut problems less likely to occur. Likewise, a professional-quality probiotic supplement can foster healthy intestinal microflora balance and improve digestion.

8. Get 7-9 Hours of Sleep
A study in the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine found a viscous cycle ensues as a poor night's sleep increased GERD symptoms the next day, which in turn worsened sleep quality. You need to prepare for sleep. About an hour before bed, turn off electronics (your urgent email will still be there in the morning), take a hot bath with some chamomile tea and Epsom salts, and unwind to experience deeper, more consistent sleep. Check out these tips that will help you get your best sleep yet!

9. Control Stress Levels

You're probably all too knowing that chronic anxiety, worry and other stressful emotions can adversely impact gut conditions. A study in The American Journal of Gastroenterology found participants who experienced major stress had significant increased blood pressure, pulse rates, and GERD symptoms. Deep breathing, meditation, yoga, or maybe just a long walk around the block with your dog can relieve the anxiety and stress that contribute to GERD.

Limit beverages during meals



If you suffer from GERD, limit your fluid intake with meals. Liquids add to the volume of food in your stomach and increases stomach distension. A full belly puts more pressure on the lower esophageal sphincter (LES), the muscle that normally prevents food from moving back up into your esophagus, and thus adds to your risk of reflux. To minimize stomach volume, take small sips of water while you eat, and try to drink mostly between rather than during meals.

Drinks to Avoid in Your Heartburn Diet

One excellent way in controlling your heartburn problem is having a friendly heartburn diet. The types of foods and drinks you have in your current diet could be the heartburn triggers. Drinks form an important part of our diet. Yet, it is often overlooked.

Here are some types of drinks which you should avoid or reduce in consumption.

Carbonated beverages - Sodas are popular drinks and they provide a refreshing sensation while you consume it. Unfortunately, the gas from the drinks can contribute to your heartburn symptoms like burping and bloatness. It also puts more pressure on your stomach. As a result, the stomach produces too much stomach acid which may reflux into the esophagus causing you to have pain in the chest. You're advised to stay away from carbonated drinks which also contain caffeine, another heartburn trigger. In your case, drinking plain water will be the best solution to solve your heartburn problem.

Caffeinated drinks - If you are one of those coffee addicts who must have multiple cups a day, then this could be your major heartburn trigger. To most coffee lovers, asking them to give up their coffee passion is like taking their life away. If you are suffering from a severe heartburn problem, it is for your own health's sake that you eliminate this drink from your diet. If it is a mild heartburn problem, you can reduce it to 1 cup a day until you are well. Alternatively, you may want to try flower teas instead. They contain little or no caffeine and they provide a very refreshing smell and taste. Also, they are a much healthier choice compared to coffee.

Sports Drinks - Many people like to take sports drinks after their exercise. Often, they think that exercise is the one that causes them to have heartburn problem. Actually, it is the isotonic drinks. Most of these drinks are carbonated and contain caffeine. These 2 factors are major contributors to heartburn problems. The best choice is still plain water.

Milk - There is an old saying -- when you have an indigestion problem, drinking milk can help to soothe your stomach. For some, milk provides them a calming effect. But, for people who are suffering from acid reflux or heartburn problems, it is best not to include milk in your heartburn diet especially drinking it before going to sleep. When you are sleeping, the milk can make your stomach churn more acid, resulting in more acid reflux symptoms. It can give a painful heartburn experience. At night, if you wish to have some milk, it is good to drink it together with a high carbohydrate food like bread or plain biscuits. They help to speed up the digestion and reduce too much acid being produced. This means you will have a lower likelihood of suffering heartburn symptoms at night.

At this point, you may be thinking what drink should you include in your heartburn diet then? The answer is plain water. Drinking 8 cups of water everyday is good for your health and help you to reduce the acid level in your stomach. Once your body has recovered from heartburn, you can drink coffee and soda again but in limited quantity. For now, it is best to stick to your heartburn diet plan and avoid the above drinks totally.

Alan meaning and name origin

Alan



Alan meaning and name origin

Alan \a-lan\ as a boy's name is pronounced AL-an. It is of Old German origin, and the meaning of Alan is "precious". From Adal. Also possibly derived from the Gaelic "ailin" meaning "little rock". Introduced into England by Breton followers of William the Conqueror, such as Alan, Earl of Brittany, who was rewarded for his services with vast estates in the newly conquered kingdomPopular in the Middle Ages, with a boom around the 1950s influenced by the popularity of actor Alan Ladd. In Russia, the name is linked to the ancient warrior tribe Alans that is the origin of the Ossetians. Alun is a Welsh form; Alain (al-LAYN) is FrenchAlano is Spanish. South African author Alan Paton; lyricist Alan Jay Lerner; playwright Alan Bennett; astronaut Alan Shepard; actors Alan Alda, Alan Cumming; poet Allen Ginsberg; basketball player Allen Iverson.
Alan has 25 variant forms: AileanAilinAlAlainAlairAlandAlannAlanoAlansonAlenAlinAllainAllanAllayneAllenAlleyAlleynAlleyneAllieAllinAllonAllynAlonAlun and Alyn.
For more information, see also the related name Elwyn.
Alan is also pronounced similarly to AloinAluinAlwinAlwynEilanElanElianElonIlanIlonOlenOlinOlyn and Wylan. Other suggested similar baby names are AdanAlbanAldanAlemAlvanAmanAranArlan and Aslan.
View a list of the 10 names that reference Alan.

Popularity of Alan

Alan is a very popular first name for males (#91 out of 1220) and also a very popular surname or last name for all people (#23264 out of 88799) (2000 U.S. Census).
Displayed below is the baby names popularity of Alan name for boys (2012 statistics). Compare Alan with its variant forms and related boy baby names.

Top 1000 ranking of Alan name in U.S.
Top 100 ranking of Alan outside U.S.

Read more at http://www.thinkbabynames.com/meaning/1/Alan#mXRKfYXxMTQeFA3t.99

一位对冲基金经理和孙子兵法的故事

7个月将3亿的资金通过对冲策略做到34亿、对孙子兵法情有独钟、认为对冲基金就是现代金融领域的“航空母舰”,深圳五洲宾馆里,坐在证券时报记者面前的刘君聊起对冲基金就格外来神,两眼放光,如数家珍。这位从陕西汉中走出去的对冲基金操盘手,曾经负笈海外游学多年,也有着在华尔街多年的对冲基金操盘经验。如今,带着对A股对冲时代的无限憧憬,他回来了。

7个月从3亿做到34亿
2010年4月,刘君在北京的朋友成立了一家合伙制公司,募集了2.97亿,由刘君亲自操盘。刘君告诉记者,A股市场长期以来只能靠做多赚取差价,市场上涨时大多数人都会赚钱,但做空只有极少数人才能赚钱,而且做空容易获得暴利,实际上做空比做多更容易判断,只是很少有人逆向思维。

去年4月16日,沪深300(2224.803,-7.72,-0.35%)股指期货上市交易。刘君从长期的研究和实战中注意到,自美国第一只股指期货于1982年4月上市至今近三十年来,大多数国家在引入股指期货初期,几乎都出现了期货和现货市场短期内纷纷下跌的“共振效应”。A股市场彼时流动性过剩,下跌概率极大。刘君把大部分资金用来做空5月合约(IF1005)。结果从去年4月16开始,沪深300指数一个多月的时间里持续下跌,在去年5月21日的合约交割日前一周,刘君全部平仓,2.97亿元变成了5.43亿元。

刘君之所以在A股市场初试牛刀就战绩赫赫,这其实源于他在华尔街丰富的对冲基金操作经历。1991年,刘君到加拿大多伦多大学攻读数量金融博士,慢慢地对量化投资产生了浓厚兴趣。后来他到美国一家投行的对冲基金工作。1999年初,刘君感觉上涨逾十年的北美股市已接近崩溃。他敏感地做空多伦多股市市值最大的北方电讯。由于北方电讯也在纽约股市上市,一旦下跌,这只超级权重股可能导致多伦多股市和纽约股市双双下挫,同时也会影响到纳斯达克(微博)指数。刘君于是做空多伦多股指和纳斯纳克股指,合计动用了70亿美元。

去年5月份的消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上涨3.1%。刘君敏锐地感觉到泡沫已经产生,资产价格也会随之上升。出于这一判断,他决定做多。果不其然,沪深股市在去年国庆节之后迎来了一波强势上扬行情。回想起当初的举动,刘君对记者说:“我隐隐感觉到有一股很大的资金拉动大盘蓝筹股,不仅契合了当时市场‘人心思涨’的形势,而且明显是朝着把股指打上去的目的来的!”

经此一战,到去年12月底,刘君这家合伙制公司的账面市值猛涨到了34.9亿元,短短7个月的时间里,资产翻了10倍!

《孙子兵法》与对冲策略
虽然身居海外多年,但刘君对《孙子兵法》的热爱一直都没有丝毫减退。“华尔街有不少对冲基金经理是犹太人,他们对中国的《孙子兵法》尤其感兴趣。”在刘君看来,《孙子兵法》里的“奇正理论”和虚实观让他受益匪浅。

《孙子兵法》的核心用兵之道是“形与势、虚与实、奇与正”。孙子军事谋略思想的最高境界是“以正合,以奇胜”。用到投资上,就是既要遵守基本的价值投资规律,又要善于突破常人的思维局限,出奇制胜。“正”与“奇”即是不同的两个方面,互不可分,合为一体。

刘君认为,全世界优秀的金融人才都跑到华尔街,华尔街的优秀人才又跑到投资银行,而投资银行的精英又去做对冲基金。对冲基金的两大要素即为头寸管理和敞口设置。这就好比一艘航空母舰,舰体是根本,但舰体本身是不打仗的,真正打仗的是舰体上面的战机。舰体好比“正”,战斗机好比“奇”。在对冲基金里面,“正”就是股票,也就是“价值存储器”;“奇”就是各种金融衍生品,真正给对冲基金带来巨额收益的,就是这些金融衍生品。

《孙子兵法》还特别强调“虚”与“实”。在对冲基金的战场上,基金经理要对资金做整体的调动,或者是市场上其他博弈对手在调动,聪明的基金经理必须能够看出这些端倪,才能做到“知己知彼、百战不殆”。比如某些时候为什么股指在高位一涨再涨?其根本原因是有主力资金在引导市场上涨,同时也有大量跟风资金在追涨。主力诱导大量跟风盘,看不到主力意图的投资者,就只能沦落为抬轿者的角色。这就是证券市场的“虚”、“实”之变。有经验的基金经理,能够透过“虚”看到“实”。

刘君认为,发达国家的证券市场,基本上都是“五方博弈”:首先是政府,政府可以干预市场,对市场走势产生非常重要的影响;其次是对冲基金;第三是养老基金;第四是共同基金;最后才是个体投资者。共同基金背后有着强大的投研团队,个体投资者往往是拍脑袋式的决策。这种状况有点类似于中国的春秋战国时期,诸侯割据,天下大乱。如何“合”、如何“攻”,这就相当考验决策者的大局观和洞察能力。对冲市场基本上是零和博弈,基金经理赚了钱,意味着对手输了钱。因此,作为一名出色的对冲基金经理,首先要学会分析“兔子”的行踪,也就是个人投资者、保险公司和投资银行自营资金的动向;接着是研究旁边的“狮子”和“老虎”,也就是以对冲基金形式存在的对手。如何部署兵力,谋定而后动,在战略上养成大局观,在战术上学会迂回曲折,是对冲基金经理着重要做的事情。在一个成熟的对冲基金经理这里,证券市场就是一个他从对手处获取收益的工具和场所。

迎接A股市场的对冲时代

“2010年是中国对冲基金元年,对冲基金在中国还刚刚开始。”刘君显然对A股市场的对冲时代抱有极大的期待。

在他看来,在成熟市场的对冲基金竞争中,是专家与专家、高手与高手之间的博弈,而A股市场由于对冲策略刚刚起步,金融衍生品也比较少,尤其是具有理论功底和实战经验的对冲人才还相当缺乏。如果说成熟市场对冲基金之间的竞争是50:50的对决,新兴市场的竞争则是10:90之间的对决。诱人的发展前景和想做一番事业的理想,驱使着刘君毫不犹豫地放弃在华尔街多年积累下来的人脉和高薪,回到了国内寻求发展。

据刘君介绍,对冲的原意是“防止遭受损失、保护手段”。那么怎样才是好的“保护手段”呢?打一个比方:一批贵重物品置于露天之下,碰到暴雨天没准会付诸东流。为了防止这种损失,可以修一座仓库将这些贵重物品加以保护,这便是最原始的对冲。随着科学技术的发展,如果将仓库房顶改换成太阳能材料,便可以既用来发电,还可以将房顶的架构改进一下,以便收集雨水加以利用,这便是改进版的对冲了。如果将仓库房顶成倍地放大,在占地面积不变的前提下,还可以成倍地放大晴天和雨天带来的双边收益,这便是真正现代版的对冲概念。在金融市场,对冲可以做到“在严格控制风险的前提下,无论牛市还是熊市,双边都可以获利,同时还能成倍地放大收益”。

长期以来,A股市场由于缺乏金融衍生品和对冲手段,无论是公募基金,还是私募基金,只能靠赚取股票差价获取正收益,也就是只能从“低买高卖”中获利。股票基金还有60%的最低仓位限制,一旦碰到像2008年和今年上半年的熊市,基金就只能被动亏损。对于私募基金来说,基金经理只能提前空仓才能避免损失,但遗憾的是,大部分私募基金还是无法从下跌市中获取正收益。随着对冲时代的到来,无论公募基金,还是私募基金,将可以从牛市和熊市中均获得正收益,而且运用杠杆之后,基金在牛市中还能涨得更快,在熊市中也能获取超额收益。

经过多年的摸索和不断改进,刘君形成了一套独有的“全息化数量分析模型系”,具体包括资本资产定价模型系(宏观和微观方面的基本面数据)、统计回归分析模型系(历时交易数据)、突发事件效应模型系(市场突发性信息)、综合模拟-优化处理模型以及资金配置与对冲敞口调控。

如今,A股市场的交易规模已居世界第二,仅次于纽约证券交易所,股指期货为中国资本市场打开了对冲通道,“面对巨大的投资机遇,我们才刚刚开始。”刘君若有所思地说道。

用鳄鱼式交易法做宏观对冲

近日,在NEO大厦37层一间可以远眺海景的办公室,记者见到了夸克对冲基金创始人刘君。

谦和、内敛、有学者气质,与记者平时所见到的各式气宇轩昂的基金经理很不一样。刚刚参加完刘君主讲的一个小型讨论会,记者对刘君和其所从事的事业有了基本的了解。

刘君是其本名,不是现代小说常见的“民国范儿”,以“君”来表示对一位男士的尊称。这个陕西人小时候的偶像是居里夫人,研究生时学的是量子力学,1991年出国赴加拿大多伦多大学求学,拿到的是数量金融博士学位。量子力学对数学要求很高,这让他读博士时几乎不用再学数学了。毕业时,他已建立了一套“全息化数量分析模型系”,这是他的独门秘笈,没有公开发表,而是运用到对冲操作上了。

在刘君的眼里,股市很像量子力场,各位炒股的“小粒子”们在中心场力(宏观和微观基本面)的作用下,其运动状态是可以用微分方程和“蒙特-卡罗模拟”来计算和模拟出来的。1997年毕业时,刘君进入登迪银行,运用自己的模型,拿出一套对冲操作方案,这个方案经过两年的论证,终于被老板采纳,登迪的四只对冲基金在1999年到2001的实战操作中,先做多后做空,以100亿加元进场,以143亿加元另加444亿美元出场。当然,对刘君来说,这次实战成功,自我证明的意义远远要大于赚钱的意义——他的模型方案管用。

后来成为刘君朋友的罗杰斯有一句话很为刘君认同:全世界的机会在中国。刘君在为回国做准备,他必须将在华尔街成功运作的模型中国化,这个时间历6年之久,2009年,他辞职回国。2010年4月16日,中国证券市场第一次可以做股指期货了,刘君募集了约3亿元进场,当晚,在中央电视台访谈节目中,他将自己的做空动向和对期指的预期和盘托出,结果证明他完全正确。

采访进行了5个多小时,虽然记者对量子力学的数学方法更感兴趣,但考虑到此行目的,还是将主题集中在对冲基金上。

熊市卖空风险并不高

记者(以下简称“记”):教科书上讲的对冲交易,一般是指两笔行情相关、数量相等、方向相反的交易,但是,你提到的当年操作加拿大北方电讯的方法,完全不是这样,你们两笔做的都是同一方向,没有对冲,这不是放大风险吗?

刘君(以下简称“刘”):国内用“对冲”来翻译hedge这个词,其实并不准,这个词的本意是保护的意思,有风险你才保护,如果你觉得风险很低,那你就用不着两边下注进行保护了。

我们1999年做北方电讯时,就是这种情形。当时,科技股行情的大泡沫正到了格林斯潘所说的“颠狂”的时候,我们顺势而为,100亿加元的资金,80亿用来拉升北方电讯这只股票,20亿在TSX期指上建立了多头头寸。北方电讯当时占TSX指数份额达25%,拉升北方电讯,很容易拉升TSX指数,北方电讯从30元涨到72元时,TSX指数涨了35%,这时,我们将20亿元期指头寸平仓,已变成99亿加元了。北方电讯后来最高涨到124元,但这已与我们无关。我们在北方电讯90元时开始反手做空,时间在2000年10月,同时,我们卖空纳斯达克指数。这两次我们都认为趋势已成,所以,将风险敞口拉大,放大杠杆,放大收益。

记:你们如何确定风险敞口呢?或者说,你们觉得什么时候风险较小,可以拉大敞口呢?

刘:按通俗的说法,风险和收益成正比,这没错,但风险并不是均衡分布的,我们用统计学计算发现,风险的分布有时高有时低,一般在混沌市或震荡市中,风险较高,而牛市或熊市中,风险较低,这时趋势很确定。通常都认为熊市风险高,但对于对冲基金来说,熊市你可以卖空,这是很确定的,风险并不高。

宏观对冲不做高频交易

记:据我所知,做期货你得预留足够的资金,以防震荡时需要追加保证金,免得爆仓。但你刚才提到100亿元,完全进去了,一点不预留资金。另外,有些期货交易员,连上厕所都得平仓,但你们做北方电讯,从方案设计到一多一空做完,历时5年,为什么会是这样?

刘:第一个我很好回答你,首先,登迪银行很有钱,而且,我们并不是一只基金在做。当时那种行情,我们80亿资金拉北方电讯,市场上有的是资金在推,这只股票后来涨到124元,完全是市场的力量。

至于你说到有些交易员高频交易,市场上确实有。有些交易员很厉害,像狙击手,一枪一个,很准,但这都只是战术对冲。毛主席的枪法并不好,但你能说毛主席不是军事家?当然这只是个比方,并不是要高攀伟人,但我们做的确实是宏观战略对冲,从策划到操作完历时较长,不属于高频交易,我们做的是鳄鱼式交易法,鳄鱼平时不动,猎物找上来了,才下口。我们一般是等到宏观出现拐点,或者有重大事件驱动,改变市场方向时,才动手。所以,我们才称自己是宏观对冲基金。美国著名的数学家詹姆斯-西蒙斯,后来运用自己的数学模型操作对冲基金,做得非常好,他也有一个类似的说法,叫“壁虎式交易法”,也是说对冲基金多数时候是不动的。

记:你们这很像索罗斯的玩法。

刘:索罗斯更宏观,他做的是国际间跨国宏观变动。我们没那么宏观。

记:那么你们是如何确定宏观拐点的呢?凭感觉吗?或者说,在你的知识结构中,你的宏观经济知识和你的数学知识比起来,哪个更重要?

刘:感觉很重要!你总是感觉到宏观有变化,你才能确定如何行动。但我们所有对宏观的认识,都要纳入到我们的“全息化数量分析模型系”中进行量化,获得某种确定性。我们要对风险进行计算,另外,市场各种力量的变化,也需要计算确认。

记:在具体操作中,你们如何进行资金配比?二八开吗?100亿资金,80亿放在股票上,20亿放在期指上?

刘:不一定,要看市场环境,看你准备把风险敞口开多大。2011年,我们在国内市场上,期指上只放了14%的仓位,其中还有7%是做对冲套利的,我们在股票上去年亏了8.67%,但期指的收益391.8%。这主要是去年宏观环境复杂,欧债非常不确定,我们不敢把风险敞口拉大。今年的情况更复杂,欧债可能有所缓和,但国内房地产调控力度难以确定,目前来看,中央的决心非常大。我们到现在还没有动。

股票不赚期指大赚

记:你的这个说法有两点令我感兴趣,一是对冲套利。去年咱们公募基金全军覆没,到年底就有一个提法,叫“量化投资”,指的就是用期指对冲套利,估计今年这种对冲套利非常盛行。二是你们的股票亏了8.67%。据我了解,一般通行的做法,就是股票资金相当于敢死队,亏了由期指收益来补,是这样的吗?

刘:对冲套利确实没什么风险,但那个收益非常低,一年3%~5%就很不错了,跟银行定存差不多,银行定存也没什么风险。这种做法不是我们主要做的,偶尔为之也是有的,但我们更多是捕捉宏观机会,在低风险区拉大风险敞口,利用高倍(在国外我们是25倍)杠杆博取更大收益。

至于股票亏期指补,基本是这样,但也不千篇一律。孙子兵法上有个说法,叫“以正合,以奇胜”,“正”就是股票,也就是“价值存储器”;“奇”就是各种金融衍生品,真正给对冲基金带来巨额收益的,就是这些金融衍生品。我们做北方电讯时,也没打算在股票上赚钱,那80亿就算亏光了,只要我们在期指上的收益高于这个数,就划算。但后来市场出人意料地好,单边多单边空,我们就运用期权等衍生品,对这80个亿做了保护(hedge),事实上,我们这80亿后来只亏了2亿,78亿出来,相当完整。

记:我注意到你2010年4月16日在国内做期指,进场时是2.97亿元,到7月31日时,已变成了10.6亿元,当年10月再做第二波时,到12月31日时已变成34.9亿元了,确实这个收益叫人震惊,让人不敢相信。另外,你在4月16日当晚就把自己做空的方向在央视上公布出来,为什么这么有把握?

刘:你震惊,只说明你不知道华尔街怎么赚钱罢了,这个收益在华尔街很普遍。上世纪八九十年代,美国对冲基金进入发展的黄金期,那也是一个财富大迁徙的过程。华尔街85%的财富掌握在犹太人手上。进入21世纪,数量金融流行于华尔街,富豪们的资金隐性化,包括索罗斯在内,你其实并不知道他赚了多少钱。亚洲金融风暴,有人说他在香港赔大了,但他同时在日元上所赚的巨额回报谁知道?又比如詹姆斯-西蒙斯,他的对冲基金长盛不衰,赚了多少谁能知道?

至于我为什么在2010年4月16日做空期指,其实很简单,世界各国推出期指,一般先迎来一波下跌,这是大概率事件,当然我们也有自己的量化分析。

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

分享集: 莫做更大傻瓜



当股价暴跌时,对你这个股票投资者来说,到底是一场“灾难”,还是一个“机会”?

如果是 “灾难”,那说明了你多数是个投机者。

投机者的两大特征是:

1 – 对股价你不问高低,只问会不会起。如果有消息说该股会起,即使股价已极高,你也不在乎,照买不误。

高价买股,被讥为“傻瓜”。

但是,有人却愿意以更高的价格买进,这个人被称为 “更大的傻瓜”。



更大傻瓜高价买进

股市中人把这种现象称为“更大傻瓜理论”(The greater fool theory),视股价暴跌为“灾难”者,多数是“更大傻瓜”的徒弟。

2 – 不理会企业的基本面,是投机者的另一个特征。对他们来说,股票只是赌桌上的筹码,筹码是用来下注的,并不是用来收藏的。筹码是要不停地转手,赌徒才有机会赢钱(或输钱),紧握筹码不下注,是不可能赢钱的。对股市中的投机者来说,股票的价值根本不重要,重要的是交投要活跃,股价要会起。

股价会起就是好股;不会起就是坏股。“好”“坏”决定于股价,不决定于基本面。他们进入股市,志在做买卖(To Trade),赚取价差。当天买当天卖的人叫“一日鲜交易商”(Day Trader)。在西方股市,这是“投机客”的别名。视股价下跌为“灾难”的,尽是此辈。

如果你视股价暴跌是一个“机会”,那么,你多数是个认真的投资者,而且是很有耐心的长期投资者,这类投资者,赢家居多。

长期投资者的特征:

1 – 对股市,他采取“反向”的政策,只有当股价暴跌,股票价值被严重低估时,才进场购买,买进后就不轻易卖出,因为他知道,低价买进好股的机会不常有,也许三、五年,甚至十年、八年才出现一次,所以他珍惜这个机会,珍惜他低价买进的好公司股份,他持着参股做生意的态度投资股票,股价暴跌是低价参股好公司的良机。这良机只在股价暴跌时才出现,故暴跌不是“灾难”而是机会,是低价买进好公司股份的机会。



2 – 投资者特别注重股票的基本面,对他们来说,股票只不过是公司股份的证书,其作用只不过是证明投资者的股份巴仙率,这巴仙率其实就是对公司资产拥有权的巴仙率。

股票代表公司的资产,跟地契代表屋子没有两样。地契的价值等于屋子的价值,对于这个“等号”,他从不置疑;你何以对股票的价值等于公司资产的价值,却总是不相信?真正的投资者对股票代表公司资产的概念,深信不疑,就好像他对地契代表屋子,深信不疑一样。



不是“灾难”

有了这个明确的、正面的认识,股票对他来说绝不是筹码,而是拥有资产作为后盾的有价证券,这一纸证书的价值,就是股份的价值。股份的价值,等于资产的价值,买股票就是买资产,当然是价格越低越合算;买股票理所当然也是股价越低越合算。基于此,股价大跌是机会,不是“灾难”。

严肃的股票投资,平时做足功课,对于股票的价值了如指掌。作为长期投资者,他锁定了一批五星级股票作为投资目标,他渴望有机会参股于这些优秀的企业,分享这些企业所创造的财富。遗憾的是这些优质股的股价,长期高企不下,他想买进,又觉得股价太高,买不下手。不买进,又以未能拥有这些优秀企业的股份为遗憾,这使他进退维谷。

化危机为良机

1998 和2009年,机会终于浮现,金融海啸横扫全球,许多优质股跟着股市的崩溃而暴跌,有些跌到只等于其真实价值的三分之一,甚至十分之一。他知道这样的机会恐怕一、二十年才会出现一次,他有信心优秀的企业在金融风暴中只是暂时受挫,一旦风平浪静,必大力反弹,于是他大胆出击,全力以赴大买好股,买进后就抱紧不放。到现在虽然有些股价已翻了几番,他仍无意脱手。这就是优秀投资者把股价暴跌这样的危机,转为创富良机的典型例子。

如果你认为上述的投资者对股票投资有超人的本领,那你就大错特错。其实,只要是正常人都可以做到。我所认识的成功投资者,其实都很平凡,但很踏实。

无需特异功能

当百货公司大减价时,人头攒动,这些趁低价抢购货物的人,都是正常人,采取了正常的行动,被低价所吸引,是正常的反应。

1998 年东南亚货币风暴和2008-9年的金融海啸,股票大减价,被低价吸引而进场买进股票的投资者,他们的反应跟普通人涌进大减价百货公司的反应没有两样,都不过是普通人的正常反应而已。

所以,要做个成功的投资者,只要做个正常人就行了。正常人的正常反应是低价才买,高价不买。每一个普通人,包括上班族都可以做到,无需特异功能。

做个正常人吧,切勿做“更大的傻瓜”。