Dream
Dare to Dream
Dare to pursue my Dream
Focus on my Dream
Work hard to reach my Dream
Focus
What is my Dream?
To be a Master Investor
How to achieve my Dream?
Learn TA by hard
Learn FA by hard
Beliefs
Self-Hynothesis
I am great
I am smart
I will be Rich
I am rich
Focus438000
ZenTurtleRaider
Fear Panic
Emotional
Affect by people
Influent by Media
Act too fast
Rational Zen
Cool
Calm
Faith
Independent Thought
Warren Buffet
Greed Irrational
Unrealistic
Over-Optimisms
Act without thought
Contrarian
Carl Icahn
Prince Alwaleed
成之於冷靜 敗之於貪念
投資智慧
“我從來沒有見過一個可以預測股市的人”“投資並不是一個智商160就一定能打敗130的游戲”“困難不在於接受新思想,而是擺脫舊思想”-巴菲特
“股市猶如人生,如果不想背負太多風險,你須學會知足, 不為貪念所動”- 是川銀藏 (日本股神)
“羊群效應是我投資成功的關鍵”-索羅斯
“股市裏,見樹不見林的人多的是” - 林山木
“時刻考慮到所有風險,甚至最不可能出現的情況”-Andre Kostolany (德國股神)
“知而不行,是為不知” - 孔子
日本股神 是川銀藏：
投資股市不是賭博而是一種以實際的經濟演變作判斷依據的經濟行為，只要肯親自動手用功研究，便可以提高研判的準確性，而得以在股市獲勝。單聽別人的意見，或只憑報紙的報導，或只憑預想的線形就想賺錢，這種心態本身就已經是失敗的根源。
百富寓勤
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Destiny
Trading is my destiny, I can kill the market sentiment, bully other traders, destroy other traders financially and be myself.
Markets
The markets including FX markets, options markets and stock market is a fierce battle field. No mercy, no pity, it is tough. But from outside, it look peaceful and relax. Don't be fool by it's exterior, it is bloody & uncompromising place.
Take care.
Take care.
How to be a Warren Buffett
1. Confidence in one's analysis
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
2. Easy to talk but hard to follow (e.g. Uncle Lim)
3. Strong Independent Mind
4. Control Greed & Fear
5.
Feelings
govt and people have different interests, don't always follow govt.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Focus totally on my tasks, don't care about other things.
Focus on learning to be a Trading Master and I will be OK.
Daily Tasks
1. Submit letter & photos to SCDF
2. Set up FX laptop
3. Devise trading strategy
4. settle divorce
5. settle home loan
6.
2. Set up FX laptop
3. Devise trading strategy
4. settle divorce
5. settle home loan
6.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Self Management
Everyday I must do self-management.
Analyse :
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
3. How to ???
Analyse :
1. How to improve my health
2. How to increase my wealth
3. How to ???
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Betting Strategy
1. Soccer
-bet on one team for draw continuely (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
-bet on one team for draw continuely (choose 18 teams)
2. basketball
3.Football
Monday, September 24, 2007
Times
Times is short
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
lives life to the fullest
Never look back, in the past whether good or bad, it has gone, extreme pain or joy I can't recall now.
Focus on my goals.
Ignore all other things.
My goals
1.7 stable incomes
2.marry white girl
3.live in condominium
4.master qigong
5.master trader
6.healthy
Never trust anyone. Never trust the Mass Media or government, or other people. No win-win in this world, everybody is my opponents. Govt tend to mislead people to gain the upper hand.
Depend on 7 stable incomes
1. Rental - 1000
2. FSM - 500
3.Soccer Betting -2000
4.Index/option trading - 2000
5.forex trading - 2000
6.other sport betting - 2000
7.Casino -2000
知彼知己，百戰不殆
Trading is the only thing I can excel in so work doubly hard to be a Trading Master.
My exterior
1.strong and calm
2.shown no emotion
3.sharp and alert
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Goals, Style and Strategy
Goals
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 5% to speculate for short-term gains.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit
high volume,
high volatility and
high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%.
If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. 3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
Borrow money from bank at an average interest rate of 5% to speculate for short-term gains.
For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit
high volume,
high volatility and
high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope).
Style
The expected return is 20% and desired risk and cut loss point is 10%.
If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style.
My goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, bottom picking strategies and gap trading is my style.
My style is aggressive day trading looking to scalp 20% gains to looking to capitalize on medium-term macro economic trends. Combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20% return per trade. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (50%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
I like to follow the market throughout the day; I can make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would also pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated.
An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains.
The maximum allowed per trade would be 20% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 100,000, then I might allocate 50,000 (50%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 50,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 10,000 (50,000 * 10%).
STRATEGY: 1. Stop loss at 5 - 10%.2. Take winnings at 10 - 20%3. Top active counters mainly4. Don't hold longer than 1 week (otherwise, it is likely to become an unwanted baby)5. Trust no one but yourself (don't trust gossips)
1. Go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. Use Elliott Wave Theory as a reference. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends.
2. Look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution).
3. My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the MACD and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum MACD and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator).
4. As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
I pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of my portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of my portfolio.
Attributes of a successful investor
I am sure we all hold different views on what makes an investor successful. After having gone through the ups and downs of investing over the past 20 years, I think some of the key attributes are:1. Foresight. Above everything else, a successful investor must have foresight. He must be able to successfully look into the future and predict correctly.To develop foresight, an investor should have the experience of running successful and not so successful businesses. I think one of the reasons Warren Buffett did so well in his investments is because he had a bad time trying to turn around the original business such that in the end, he sold it. Hence, I see investing as the next step after entrepreneurship. But one needs to be an entrepreneur first to understand the issues that SMEs face in the real world. After all, most of our investments are in real world SME companies and what we are trying to do is to identify the high flyers of the future.
2. Ability to understand the fundamentals behind a company, especially, the financial statements. This is where those trained in accountancy may have an upper hand. However, this attribute is not that difficult to pick up. One of the first stops for any fundamental investor must surely be the annual report. Successful investors have an ability to read in between the lines of a financial statement such that he can foresee many of the issues that may surface in the years ahead. 3. Ability to appreciate technical analysis. This will help time your purchase and sale of shares. 4. Ability to control fear and greed. This one, we all agree and hence, no need for elaboration.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Arthur Hill On Goals, Style and Strategy
Before investing or trading, it is important to develop a strategy or game plan that is consistent with your goals and style. The ultimate goal is to make money (win), but there are many different methods to go about it.
As with many aspects of trading, many sports offer a good analogy. A football team with goals geared towards ball control and low-scoring games might adapt a conservative style that focuses on the run. Teams that want to score often and score quickly are more likely to pursue an aggressive style geared towards passing. Teams are usually aware of their goal and style before they develop a game plan. Investors and traders can also benefit by keeping in mind their goals and style when developing a strategy.
Goals
First and foremost are goals. The first set of questions regarding goals should center on risk and return. One cannot consider return without weighing risk. It is akin to counting your chickens before they are hatched. Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. At one end of the spectrum are US Treasury bonds, which offer the lowest risk (so-called risk free rate) and a guaranteed return. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
After your goals have been established, it is time to develop or choose a style that is consistent with achieving those goals. The expected return and desired risk will affect your trading or investing style. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. If your goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, then bottom picking strategies and gap trading may be your style.
Styles range from aggressive day traders looking to scalp 1/4-1/2 point gains to investors looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. In between, there are a whole host of possible combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader. Make sure your level of commitment jibes with your trading style. The more trading involved, the higher the level of commitment.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (5-10%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 5% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 300,000, then I might allocate 21,000 (7%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 21,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 1050 (21,000 * 5%).
STRATEGY:
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends. In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution). My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (PPO and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the PPO and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum (PPO) and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator). As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
This is just one hypothetical strategy that combines goals with style and commitment. Some people have different portfolios that represent different goals, styles and strategies. While this can become confusing and quite time consuming, separate portfolios ensure that investment activities pursue a different strategy than trading activities. For instance, you may pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of your portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of your portfolio. If a small percentage (~5-10%) is earmarked for trading and the bulk (~90-95%) for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less. However, if too much of a portfolio (~50-60%) is at risk through aggressive trading, the equity swings and the emotional strain could be large.
As with many aspects of trading, many sports offer a good analogy. A football team with goals geared towards ball control and low-scoring games might adapt a conservative style that focuses on the run. Teams that want to score often and score quickly are more likely to pursue an aggressive style geared towards passing. Teams are usually aware of their goal and style before they develop a game plan. Investors and traders can also benefit by keeping in mind their goals and style when developing a strategy.
Goals
First and foremost are goals. The first set of questions regarding goals should center on risk and return. One cannot consider return without weighing risk. It is akin to counting your chickens before they are hatched. Risk and return are highly correlated. The higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. At one end of the spectrum are US Treasury bonds, which offer the lowest risk (so-called risk free rate) and a guaranteed return. For stocks, the highest potential returns (and risk) center around growth industries with stock prices that exhibit high volatility and high price multiples (PE, Price/Sales, Price/Hope). The lowest potential returns (and risk) come from stocks in mature industries with stock prices that exhibit relatively low volatility and low price multiples.
Style
After your goals have been established, it is time to develop or choose a style that is consistent with achieving those goals. The expected return and desired risk will affect your trading or investing style. If your goal is income and safety, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. If your goals center on quick profits, high returns and high risk, then bottom picking strategies and gap trading may be your style.
Styles range from aggressive day traders looking to scalp 1/4-1/2 point gains to investors looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. In between, there are a whole host of possible combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians. Swing traders might look for 1-5 day trades, position traders for 1-8 week trades and value investors for 1-2 year trades.
Not only will your style depend on your goals, but also on your level of commitment. Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would be focused on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. Intraday charts would be used to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.
On the other hand, position traders are likely to use daily end-of-day charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. The goal would be focused on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader. Make sure your level of commitment jibes with your trading style. The more trading involved, the higher the level of commitment.
Strategy
Once the goals have been set and preferred style adopted, it is time to develop a strategy. This strategy would be based on your return/risk preferences, trading/investing style and commitment level. Because there are many potential trading and investing strategies, I am going to focus on one hypothetical strategy as an example.
GOAL:
First, the goal would be a 20-30% annual return. This is quite high and would involve a correspondingly high level of risk. Because of the associated risk, I would only allot a small percentage (5-10%) of my portfolio to this strategy. The remaining portion would go towards a more conservative approach.
STYLE:
Although I like to follow the market throughout the day, I cannot make the commitment to day trading and use of intraday charts. I would pursue a position trading style and look for 1-8 week price movements based on end-of-day charts. Indicators will be limited to three with price action (candlesticks) and chart patterns will carry the most influence.
Part of this style would involve a strict money management scheme that would limit losses by imposing a stop-loss immediately after a trade is initiated. An exit strategy must be in place before the trade is initiated. Should the trade become a winner, the exit strategy would be revised to lock in gains. The maximum allowed per trade would be 5% of my total trading capital. If my total portfolio were 300,000, then I might allocate 21,000 (7%) to the trading portfolio. Of this 21,000, the maximum allowed per trade would be 1050 (21,000 * 5%).
STRATEGY:
The trading strategy is to go long stocks that are near support levels and short stocks near resistance levels. To maintain prudence, I would only seek long positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bull trends and short positions in stocks with weekly (long-term) bear trends. In addition, I would look for stocks that are starting to show positive (or negative) divergences in key momentum indicators as well as signs of accumulation (or distribution). My indicator arsenal would consist of two momentum indicators (PPO and Slow Stochastic Oscillator) and one volume indicator (Accumulation/Distribution Line). Even though the PPO and the Slow Stochastic Oscillator are momentum oscillators, one is geared towards the direction of momentum (PPO) and the other towards identifying overbought and oversold levels (Slow Stochastic Oscillator). As triggers, I would use key candlestick patterns, price reversals and gaps to enter a trade.
This is just one hypothetical strategy that combines goals with style and commitment. Some people have different portfolios that represent different goals, styles and strategies. While this can become confusing and quite time consuming, separate portfolios ensure that investment activities pursue a different strategy than trading activities. For instance, you may pursue an aggressive (high-risk) strategy for trading with a small portion of your portfolio and a relatively conservative (capital preservation) strategy for investing with the bulk of your portfolio. If a small percentage (~5-10%) is earmarked for trading and the bulk (~90-95%) for investing, the equity swings should be lower and the emotional strains less. However, if too much of a portfolio (~50-60%) is at risk through aggressive trading, the equity swings and the emotional strain could be large.
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